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Instructional league ends. AFL kicks off

Posted on October 16th, 2009 – 1:29 PM
By La Velle

The Twins’ annual fall instructional league wrapped up today. For two-plus weeks, Twins prospects worked on their skills at the club’s year-round headquarters in Fort Myers, Florida.

It also marked the professional debut (sort of) of righthander Kyle Gibson, the Twins’ first-round pick who was an injury concern during the draft. The Twins, however, checked him out, determined that his forearm problem was a stress fracture and not a strain (which can lead to elbow ligament problems),  drafted him and signed him for a $1.85 million bonus.

Twins scouting director Deron Johnson said Gibson threw four innings and looked good,

“The last two innings he threw really well,” Johnson said. “Threw strikes. Kept the ball down. Showed his full assortment of pitches. His slider is his money pitch.”

The Twins hope Gibson can start at Class A Fort Myers next year,  which gives him a chance to get on the fast track to the majors.

Johnson also was impressed with German outfielder Max Kepler, who is attending South Fort Myers high school while working out with at the Twins’ facility across the street.

“Looks like he’s going to be good,” Johnson said. “Good body. Good swing. Runs well for his size.”

I was  on the phone with Johnson for just five minutes (he was about to chow down on a Five Guys burger). But he made a point of bringing up sixth-round pick Chris Hermann, who played all 59 games in the outfield for rookie league Elizabethton but is being switched to catcher.

Hermann, Johnson said, looks like he’ll be able to handle the move. It’s an interesting move because Hermann’s bat looks promising. He hit .297 with 7 homers and 30 and was third in the Appalachian League with 33 walks.  

AFL begins

Seven Twins players - infielders Steve Singleton, Chris Parmelee, outfielder Rene Tosoni and pitchers Mike McCardell, Steve Hirschfeld, Alex Burnett and Spencer Steedley are playing with the Mesa Solar Sox of the Arizona Fall League. AFL action  runs until just before Thanksgiving.

Bill Smith & Co. will remain in Fort Myers this week for organizational meetings before returning to the Twin Cities.

I’m still working on my top ten prospects list for 2009. This year has been harder than usual. Part of the reason is the additions of Kyle Gibson, Max Kepler and Miguel Angel Sano. They haven’t played a game as pros, but, if you go on potential, they’re all big prospects.

The other part is, the Twins didn’t have many big seasons. Aaron Hicks, arguably, still is the top prospect but didn’t play well until the end of the Class A season. Wilson Ramos was slowed by injuries.

I’ve swapped e-mails about the Twins farm system with Baseball America’s John Manuel and will include some of his thoughts next week when I finally have the guts to post my list.

Update: Wilson Ramos has jumped into winter ball with a hot bat. He’s batting .393 with 2 homers and 7 RBI in seven games for Aragua of the Venezuelan Winter League. You know, he’s going to be the best Venezuelan prospect the Twins have produced, not that there’s a lot of competition.

52 Responses to "Instructional league ends. AFL kicks off"

Cris E says:

October 16th, 2009 at 1:43 pm

Having some non-traditional, high end prospects is a welcome wrinkle.

SethSpeaks says:

October 16th, 2009 at 1:45 pm

LaVelle, this year’s Top 10 is really tough, but there is a ton of high ceiling upside. I just don’t know which order to do mine in either. NOrmally I’m done with my Top 50 a month ago, and it’s really tough.

coomer's shroomers says:

October 16th, 2009 at 1:50 pm

i would say ron coomer, jr. is the top prospect in the twins system.

JC Smith says:

October 16th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

Gardenhire, Jr………

BC of ND says:

October 16th, 2009 at 2:01 pm

Len3 and Seth make sure you guys take your time this year because your 2005 list was way off the mark.

ricky says:

October 16th, 2009 at 2:07 pm

was Gibson back to throwing in the 90s?

birdofprey says:

October 16th, 2009 at 2:08 pm

Let the man finish his hamburger, LaVelle, but then call the man back! I’d like to hear what he has to say about a whole slew of players: Boof Bonser, Joe Benson, Billy Bullock, Adrian Salcedo, BJ Hermsen, Angel Morales, and of course Aaron Hicks. Thanks for the report.

ricky says:

October 16th, 2009 at 2:14 pm

lets throw in some updates on shooter hunt to plz

heetcpa says:

October 16th, 2009 at 2:34 pm

AFL? I thought the Arena Football League folded.

Paul says:

October 16th, 2009 at 2:39 pm

Wow. There’s an ad link just to right as I view this blog. It states

“Avg. MLB Player IQ = 81″

Yikes!!

heetcpa says:

October 16th, 2009 at 2:39 pm

“Let the man finish his hamburger, LaVelle”

~You just don’t want to bother a man when he’s eat’n Five Guys.

simsypoo says:

October 16th, 2009 at 2:43 pm

I think that any Twins Top 10 list for 2010, is going to have to come with a disclaimer. Some people weigh potential more than performance or mlb readiness. There’s plenty of arguments for many players to be deserving of a spot in the top 10. I’m excited for this, leaves a lot of room for discussion for this offseason, which would otherwise be long and boring.

mike wants wins says:

October 16th, 2009 at 2:45 pm

Thank you La Velle. I appreciate your coverage of the minor league system. There seems to be a dearth of prospects among those on the 40 man right now….and at AAA. The Twins themselves said two drafts ago that they had not done a great job of drafting and developing stars lately. I think the lack of big seasons may point out the accuracy of that statement.

That said, I still think they have some guys with high ceilings, but they have not yet shown that to be true….

birdofprey says:

October 16th, 2009 at 2:55 pm

mww, the Twins have drafted very well for the past few years. Those players are emerging in AA and AAA in 2010. They have chosen to compete internationally in Europe and Australia in the past, but they showed some determination to be competitive in Cental/South America with the Sano signing.

You like to characterize the organization continuing to be subpar, and this is false. Five years ago, and for a number of years in a row, this was an adnmitted fact. You need to update your talking points, mww.

Not so Original Kevin says:

October 16th, 2009 at 3:06 pm

birdofprey continues to point to the minor leagues as some sort of proof of Twins success. While Twins have dome some good things on the minor league and developmental level, they have not done what it takes to compete where it really counts, the major leagues. Their unwillingness to spend money, when just another two or three pieces would make the difference, has not been the equal of hteir efforts in the farm systems.

mike wants wins says:

October 16th, 2009 at 3:17 pm

I’m literally quoting what the Twins said before the draft in 2008. They said it, not me. So, while the last two drafts might be good (it’s kind of early to tell, isn’t it?), I’m going to trust what the Twins said, that they were not happy with how they’d drafted earlier this decade.

Feel free to disagree, I’m ok with that. But I’m going with what the Twins said here. btw, BA ranked the Twins 22nd in their organizational rankings coming into the year. So, it’s not just me or the Twins that feel this way.

mike wants wins says:

October 16th, 2009 at 3:19 pm

It may have been before the 2007 draft, I’d have to find it to be sure which year they said it.

mike wants wins says:

October 16th, 2009 at 3:26 pm

Seth and LaVelle, why not skip the rankings, and give us your groupings instead. That’s much more interesting:

guys I think will be studs
guys that could contribute
guys that will get a cup of coffee
guys that might never see action
minor league filler

Or, whatever your categories might be. Who is number 1 vs number 4 isn’t all that meaningful or even informative. Who has a chance to be special, or good, or mediocre or little chance, that is informative.

birdofprey says:

October 16th, 2009 at 3:36 pm

mww, look at what they have done instead of fixating on some passing comment you think you understood. They have drafted and signed well for a number of years, not two years like you feel compelled to argue, mww. And it’s not too early to tell. Here’s your proof: Duensing, Morales, Mijares, Tolbert, Casilla, Swarzak, Manship, Slama, Delaney, Mulvey(Rauch), Valencia, Plouffe, Tolleson, Pridie, Gutierrez, Guerra, McCardell, Burnett, Ramos, Hughes, Steedley, Singleton, Tosoni, Dinkelman. All of these players are at AA or above. Most were signed awhile ago, not last year. Many are considered to be very good prospects. Most of those mentioned rate higher among the blog experts than Duensing, to ngive you a comparison.

Importantly, their best prospects, the ones who will garner “Top Ten” type recognition, are in A ball or below. They will begin to show up on BA’s radar screen next year, but right now, the bTwins only have three players among BA’s top 100, so it’s true that the Twins have strength in the number of quality prospects, but not among the high-profilers. Fourteen pitchers were selected before Gibson at #22. But if he doesn’t become a BA top 100 type, I’m sure we can count on you, mww, to let us know the score, right?

Too Nice says:

October 16th, 2009 at 3:39 pm

LaVelle

What is the timing to begin to hear about the progress of Miguel A Sano’s work Visa application?

mike wants wins says:

October 16th, 2009 at 3:50 pm

I fail to see how both stating I have hope, and that I see weaknesses, in an organization I root for and listen to on the radio and watch on tv makes me a bad person in some peoples’ eyes, but it clearly does.

For example, I think Hicks has a high ceiling, but I also think it is fair to say that he hasn’t exactly dominated yet. Heck, even La Velle says it in his post.

Hence my statement:

“I still think they have some guys with high ceilings, but they have not yet shown that to be true….”

I hope you are right. I hope all those guys turn into rock stars. I think some might be ready now. I argued for much of the year that Hughes should be on the MLB roster, as a RH PH or DH option, as opposed to having no hitters on the bench, for example. I also said slama and delaney should get a chance over Ayala and others, and that slama should be in AAA. There are lots of guys I like, that does not mean they are w/o weaknesses and are not above any criticism.

birdofprey says:

October 16th, 2009 at 4:10 pm

You’re a good guy, mww. Go ahead and point out the weaknesses. I’ll often agree. I was pointing out that saying they have drafted poorly with the possible exception of the last two years is just horribly inaccurate. It’s a common view that lacks perspective. The evidence is all there. Cheer up!

birdofprey says:

October 16th, 2009 at 4:19 pm

By the way, most followers of the minors can find at least 15 players they like better than Hughes. How do you come by your opinion, mww?

SethSpeaks says:

October 16th, 2009 at 4:19 pm

“Len3 and Seth make sure you guys take your time this year because your 2005 list was way off the mark.”

I had to look… in September 2005, here was my Top 10:
1 - Francisco Liriano
2 - Scott Baker
3 - Jason Kubel - So far so good…
4 - Anthony Swarzak
5 - Matt Moses - no one is perfect!
6 - Jay Rainville
7 - Alex Romero
8 - Denard Span - Alright, there we go.
9 - Kevin Slowey
10 - Adam Harben

Here are others we know who followed:
Nick Blackburn (12), Glen Perkins (14), Boof Bonser (17), Matt Garza (18), Pat Neshek (26), Jose Mijares (30), Brian Duensing (35).

It’s always fun to look back at those lists and remember some names (http://www.sethspeaks.net/093005.htm).

SethSpeaks says:

October 16th, 2009 at 4:20 pm

“By the way, most followers of the minors can find at least 15 players they like better than Hughes.”

I was considering my Top 10… I came up with 14 names. Luke Hughes was not one of them.

birdofprey says:

October 16th, 2009 at 4:34 pm

Very impressive 2005, Seth!

Expression451 says:

October 16th, 2009 at 6:29 pm

Seth’s page is a godsend… It is one of my favorite baseball pages.

Expression451 says:

October 16th, 2009 at 7:05 pm

My personal opinion…

1. Gibson
2. Hicks
3. Ramos
4. Revere
5. Slama
6. Sano
7. Kepler
8. Delaney
9. Valencia
10. Bromberg
11. Guerra
12. Tyler Robertson
13. Shooter Hunt
14. Dinklemann
15. Luke Hughes
16. Waldorp
17. Testa
18. Plouffe
19. Dozier
20. Van Mil

mike wants wins says:

October 16th, 2009 at 7:17 pm

I also have lots and lots of guys I like more than Hughes. But, most of them aren’t anywhere near ready for the majors right now (and Hughes might not be either, I was merely pointing out that there are guys in the system that I think could add to the roster, and right now. I’d much rather have Hughes, a RH with some pop than Buscher, a LH, for example).

No where did I say I thought Hughes was any where near their top prospect list. No where did I say that.

Cris E says:

October 16th, 2009 at 7:47 pm

I’m really concerned about Hunt. There are not a lot of guys who put it back together after a couple years like this. does anyone know if they can identify a particular thing, or is this can mysterious/scary as it looks from out here in the cheap seats?

SethSpeaks says:

October 16th, 2009 at 7:48 pm

I understand what you’re looking for… it’s just really tough. There are guys at AAA, like maybe Brock Peterson or Dustin Martin or Jason Pridie who we know could contribute as a role player to the Twins, which is value.

Then there are guys in the short season leagues like Adrian Salcedo, BJ Hermsen, Blayne Weller, Oswaldo Arcia, Tom Stuifbergen and Brian Dozier who may have a high ceiling, but they still have so many levels to advance through that we jsut don’t know.

SethSpeaks says:

October 16th, 2009 at 7:49 pm

Shooter Hunt has done a great job of making football picks at sethspeaks.net. He’s just one game out of first place, behind Dan Slowey of Blogonoscopy! (www.SethSpeaks.net/FBPicks09.htm)

Dantes929 says:

October 16th, 2009 at 9:53 pm

How do you project Derek McCallum? I was kind of excited to see a guy with his resume come in to the system as a 2nd baseman. I know his season wasn’t spectacular but how do you feel about his potential?

popriveter says:

October 16th, 2009 at 10:52 pm

Bird, your post listing players as proof of the Twins’ recent draft successes listed many players who were not drafted by the Twins. It is interesting look through the history of draft results (@ the Twins official site under Roster, Draft results.)
In 2000-Jason Kubel. Not much else.
2001-Mauer, Morales, Blackburn, Lohse
2002-Span, Crain, Neshek,
2003-Scott Baker. Not much else.
2004-So far Perkins, Swarzak and Tolbert have had some impact on the Major league level.
2005-Garza, Slowey, Duensing
I’d say ‘01, ‘02, ‘05 have proved to be fairly strong drafts, but if there were more Bakers and fewer Matt Moseses in ‘03 and ‘04, we wouldn’t be scuffling to fill so many holes. The backlash of weaker drafts in ‘03 and ‘04 hurt this year.
Drafting is soooooooo hit and miss and these players who haven’t had an impact yet might just pop. Maybe Plouffe or Moses or will be worthwhile yet. Most of us gave up hope with Span. Look at him now.

mickey mental says:

October 17th, 2009 at 12:57 am

span is impressive. look at him now is right.

interesting thread. appreciated.

ricky says:

October 17th, 2009 at 1:08 am

Angel Morales should be a top five. Main knack on him is the low walk rate and strikeouts. He finished strongly in a tough league on hitters. He can play center, has good power potential and steal bases. I like him a little more than Revere.

ricky says:

October 17th, 2009 at 1:16 am

just for the hell of it here’s my top 10.
1. Hicks
2. Morales
3. Bromberg
4. Revere
5. Ramos
6. Gutierrez
7. Salcedo
8. Gibson
9. Parmelee
10. Tosoni

** Can’t really put in Sano or Kepler in quite yet. Sano may be a top five next year.

suddenly the organization has decent depth. imagine picking up more high upside prospects if Nathan or Cuddyer are dealt

Mauer Power says:

October 17th, 2009 at 8:47 am

I post and it gets deleted. I am sick of Star Tribune and their botched commenting. What a waste.

Mauer Power says:

October 17th, 2009 at 8:48 am

Wait, sorry, my fault. Wrong thread. Serves me right.

sane says:

October 17th, 2009 at 10:57 am

“Here’s your proof: Duensing,…..Dinkelman. All of these players are at AA or above.”

That only proves that they have advanced higher than their peers in the Twins System.
If those peers are trash, then that “proof” may be just “advanced” trash.
Prospects advance relative to the other prospects in their farm system.
They could ALL (theoretically) be trash.

Bunting Twins says:

October 17th, 2009 at 3:33 pm

The Twins will clean up the 40 man roster soon, as they do after every season.

Cabrera, Crede, Redmond, Pavano and Mahay will come off when they file as free agents.

Some players will be dropped as better prospects are added. Justin Huber and probably Luke Hughes should be dropped. Buscher, Harris and Morales? Buscher is a good hitter, but there are probably better players available than those three.

Tolleson and Pridie, the organization will have to make a decision on. They are getting old. Deibison Romero and Trevor Plouffe are probably young enough to hang on to. Is Gabino really a prospect worth keeping?

I’ll be interested to see who sticks around.

Does anyone know which Twins players must be placed on the 40 man, or be vulnerable to be taken by another team in the December Rule 5 draft? I never see this reported anywhere by any of the local reporters. Maybe I simply miss it every year.

gobbledygookguy says:

October 17th, 2009 at 5:07 pm

looks like a few guys counting their chickens before the eggs hatch!!

Kevin H says:

October 17th, 2009 at 6:45 pm

You mean Ramos will be better than Luis “too lazy to improve my game” Rivas?

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a guy break into the majors at age 21 and never get better than the first day he played.

SethSpeaks says:

October 17th, 2009 at 9:50 pm

Bunting Twins - Get your free sample of the TwinsCentric GM Handbook… there is an entire chapter on the 40 man roster decisions. Go to TwinsCentric.com to get it.

Peter S says:

October 18th, 2009 at 9:11 am

I think “Chris Hermann” is spelled incorrectly in this story. He’s listed as having two r’s in his name on MILB.com

Chris Herrmann

shaun says:

October 18th, 2009 at 7:21 pm

I like drafting, but that takes patience. The best way is to “buy” a few players like the Vikings did. It’s working, they are 6-0. This is funny, check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daBKPoztS-E

Rob says:

October 18th, 2009 at 9:35 pm

Ok, now who among you have actually seen all of these guys play? Or for that matter just ONE of them play?

mike says:

October 19th, 2009 at 8:09 am

I am not sure that Gibson, Sano and Kepler can be on any top prospect list.

They haven’t plaid a profesional game. Didn’t we do the same thing with Shooter Hunt

mike says:

October 19th, 2009 at 8:09 am

plaid?

BC of ND says:

October 19th, 2009 at 8:55 am

Hey Seth you knew i was joking about the 2005 list right? I love your website and your insight into the Twins farm system.

Bob says:

October 19th, 2009 at 11:42 am

I think that anyone who doesn’t have Delaney and Slama in their top 5 prospects is delirious. Our bullpen’s woes make both these guys on the fast track to MLB and both should contribute in the pen next year, especially if Nathan continues to slide and Neshek isn’t ready.

shaun says:

October 19th, 2009 at 5:48 pm

Right, mike, that doesn’t look right at 8:09. Reminds me of a joke I heard:

” I went hunting for the first time. I shot an Elk. I felt really bad at first, but the guy was wearing a plaid leisure suit.”