Back on the grid
Posted on November 19th, 2009 – 4:43 PMBy La Velle
I know it’s been awhile. I had to whittle down some vacation time that I was going to lose on Jan. 1. So I took a couple weeks off. Went on a trip. Read a very good book about the 1975 Reds (The Machine, by Joe Posnanski).
To be honest, I had reached a point where I needed to drop off the grid for awhile. So it was time to take some time off. Now I’m back. Joe C. is keeping up with Twins news this week while I help out with Gophers coverage. I’ll be back on the Twins on Monday, when the AL MVP is announced.
For now, chew on this:
Noted baseball seamhead Bill James, in the upcoming Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010, has predicted the top ten players likely to sustain or improve next season. The number on the right is the Strong Seasons Leading Index Score:
| Player | 2010 Team | Score |
| Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays | 26 |
| Chris B. Young | Arizona Diamondbacks | 25 |
| J.J. Hardy | Minnesota Twins | 25 |
| Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers | 24 |
| Grady Sizemore | Cleveland Indians | 24 |
| Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox | 23 |
| James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers | 23 |
| Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | 23 |
| B.J. Upton | Tampa Bay Rays | 23 |
| Nate McLouth | Atlanta Braves | 23 |
Here are the ten least likely to sustain or improve:
| Jorge Posada | New York Yankees | 8 |
| Matt Diaz | Atlanta Braves | 9 |
| Craig Counsell | Free Agent | 9 |
| Russell Branyan | Free Agent | 11 |
| Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay Rays | 11 |
| Scott Podsednik | Free Agent | 11 |
| Derrek Lee | Chicago Cubs | 11 |
| Kendry Morales | LA Angels of Anaheim | 11 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | Seattle Mariners | 11 |
| Rajai Davis | Oakland Athletics | 12 |
Figured that you’d like the J.J. Hardy part - although I’m guessing you all are rooting for him to improve and not sustain next year!
I would bet against James on Ichiro. I just think the Sultan of Slap will hit forever.
Here’s James’ explanation of his work: “Age is the most obvious indicator of likely movement. We also know that players tend to move back to their historical norms, so we look at last year’s On-base Plus Slugging percentage compared to his career OPS. We also factor in a player’s batting average on balls in play, his strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his speed before distilling all this into a single number that indicates how likely a player is to have a strong season in the coming year.”
18 Responses to "Back on the grid"
Welcome back we need more Twins baseball!
Welcome back Wobble. How was Vegas?
It’s was the fuhshizzle my dizzle….
Thank goodness you are back. Look forward to more Twins’ coverage. (What’s with Cutler & all the interceptions. He’s killing my fantasy team.)
La Velle,
As a fellow baseball & football fan, all I can say is…
how do you like da bears now!!!
I’m sure that with next years first round draft da bears can get Cutler some help for him…oh, never mind…
p.s. I used to live in Denver until ‘07 and I’m so glad that Jay Cutler is gone from that market.
The Bronco fans deserve so much more.
welcome back
Punto, Casilla, and Liriano top my list of most likely to sustain or improve. Sustaining should be pretty easy and improve not much tougher.
Welcome back - how about a quick review of The Machine?
Do NOT ask LEN 3 what happened in Vegas, because what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. Welcome back LaVelle.
i hope this wasn’t just me but it got old seeing some story about umpires in the world series every day
La Velle, good to see you back.. missed your insight on KFAN the last couple weeks.. Here’s to hoping Hardy does improve at least to close what he used to be..
So being in the loop as you are.. Are Washburn and Pavano really the only arms the Twinks are looking at? I would be okay with Pavano back as the 4 or 5. But we need someone that at least has a chance at challenging Baker for #1 on the staff. Like a Sheets (possible but I do believe he wanted only to go to Texas or Mil.), Bedard (My first choice, but how much of 09 was Safeco, and how much was really him..) or Harden (who might have the most talent, but is more injury prone and expensive then Bedard.)
And knowing how likely we have to have Punto in the lineup, would you rather see the Twins get a 2nd or 3rd baseman? I personally see Punto better at 2nd, but there doesn’t seem to be a OBP type #2 hitter in the 3rd Base market, while there are at least a couple options in the 2nd base market.
Once again, GREAT to have you back La Velle! Let us know when we get to hear you on KFAN again!
The least likely to sustain or improve with Posada at the top, that’s scary to me as a Twin fan.
HAVE FUN !!! GO TWINS !!!
Welcome back LEN.
Great to have you back LEN3; I’m relieved to know that you didn’t eat your way into a hospital.
Wb LEN., Were you as excited for the Hardy trade, as most of us were? Or were you the disapointed type, what with Go-Go-Going to Milwaukee?
Btw, you missed some great Timberwolves action while you were gone…or were you betting against them? 
Welcome back, LaVelle. I hope your time away was rejuvenating!
Hey LaVelle-
Why don’t you just post your story about Mauer winning the MVP right now? You know you already wrote it and you you know he’s a lock. Maybe you’re waiting to put the numbers in. For example, right now you have written, “In a landslide, Mauer received ___ out of a possible 28 first place votes.” So you just need the official numbers to finish the story. Am I close?
How’s the top 10 prospect list coming along, Lavelle?
