Tuesday update
Posted on December 1st, 2009 – 3:54 PMBy La Velle
The Twins have offered arbitration to righthander Carl Pavano, which comes several hours before the 11 p.m. deadline for clubs to offer arbitration to their free agents.
Pavano is a Type B free agent. If he signs with another club, the Twins would receive a sandwich pick as compensation. The Twins remain interested in re-signing Pavano, who was 5-4, 4.64 for the team after being deal from Cleveland.
Cleveland, ironically, is one of the teams interested in signing Pavano.
“I have spoken to Carl and to his agent and informed them of this decision and we look forward to continued negotiations with them,” Twins GM Bill Smith said in an e-mail.
Orlando Cabrera, Mike Redmond, Ron Mahay and Joe Crede also are Twins free agents. Cabrera is a Type A free agent, but had it written into his contract that he couldn’t be offered arbitration. Redmond, Mahay and Crede don’t have Type A or B status and aren’t expected to be offered arbitration.
Mauer update
There was a yahoo! report late last night that Joe Mauer had set a Opening Day deadline for contract negotiations.
I found that rather odd. This is the same Mauer who, at the end of the season and again last week at his MVP press conference, said that he’s not the type of guy to say he needs a contract done by a certain date.
I texted Mauer last night, and he responded today with the following:
“Sorry for the late reply. Just got back to FL and it feels great. As far as that report, that’s news to me. Don’t know where that came from.”
Historically, players who begin their walk year break off negotiations to concentrate on the season. Mauer, I feel, is a little different. His agent, Ron Shapiro, has a history of taking negotiations into a walk year. The combination of Mauer and Shapiro makes it hard for me to believe that they would really shut things down.
The X factor, of course. is the player’s association. I’m sure the union sees Mauer as the rising tide that lifts all boats and might push for such a stance. Shapiro’s track record says that he’s his own man.
Even if it was true, you can’t convince me that Shapiro would turn down a big offer in June if it’s the right number.
Other stuff
There has been contact between the Twins and Joe Speed, the agent for former Gopher Robb Quinlan. The Twins could use a bat off the bench, and Quinlan could back up at first, third and the outfield. Quinlan, does have some interest from other clubs and might opt to sign with a National League team.
“I’m sure we’ll get together at the winter meetings and explore if there’s a good fit,” Speed said.
Third base prospect Danny Valencia has agreed to play winter ball in Puerto Rico. That’s a good move because he has a lot to prove in camp. Not sure which team he’ll play for yet.
Update: Valencia will play for Ponce in the Puerto Rican league. He either left tonight or is leaving tomorrow.
And, yes, Miguel Angel Sano is now known as Miguel Jean. After using his mother’s last name he now uses his fathers. It’s not the first time that’s happened. Remember David Arias? Most Red Sox fans call him Big Papi.
177 Responses to "Tuesday update"
Pavano hasn’t declined yet?
Quinlan would be a great addition to the bench and a decent utility guy, at that too. He could get some decent fill-in playing time. Seems to be a good fit, especially since he’s a Gopher. I’ve been hoping the Twins would show some interest in him!
Quinlan would hardly be a “great” addition. Give me Mike Sweeney instead.
“There was a yahoo! report late last night that Joe Mauer had set a Opening Day deadline for contract negotiations.”
Joe is laid back because there will be no serious negotiations between Joe and the Twins.
If the Twins have an 80 mil payroll by 2011, his salary doesn’t fit.
The Twins need to spend about half of their payroll on pitching to progress as a team. Their ridiculously low pitching payroll can’t continue.
That means about 40 mil for the hitters. If Joe earns an anticipated 25 mil a year, that leaves about 15 mil for all the rest of the hitters.
See, it’s perfectly clear. He doesn’t fit.
Nothing against Joe. It’s just a numbers thing.
The Twins payroll will hit $90M next season,with a chance to reach $95, if they can find the right players to fit.
It won’t be $80M
But….
It’s hard to pay one player 20 percent of a payroll. Mauer at $20M a year is tough to build a roster around. From that aspect, Bunting Twins, you are on the right track.
Your assumption that the Twins only intend to have an 80 mil payroll comes from…?
I think if any player is worth 20% of a payroll, it just might be Joe Mauer. Although his injury history might be a concern.
If Mauer signs for $20M+ with the Twins the payroll will be in the $95-100M range.
If there is no chance for the payroll to get to that range he might be a Red Sox.
Any news out there on Harden, Sheets or Duchesher?
If the Twins pay Mauer 20% of the payroll, there’s some added incentive to move him from behind the plate where he’s more likely to get hurt.
Move him to 1st and trade Morneau.
don’t officially quote this to me, but I think Valencia is going to play with Toros del Este in the DR with Santos Arias, Jose Lugo and a couple other Twins.
The whole “cant pay a player 20% of payroll” thing baffles me. It simply makes no sense.
If they try to keep payroll at $75-80 million, then yes… it’s difficult to pay one guy $15 million of that and field a competitive team around him for the remaining $60-65 million.
But there’s really no reason the Twins shouldn’t be able to afford $100 million (and then some) starting this season. 80% of that is $80 million.
So… based on your “cant spend 20% on one guy” theory, it would be difficult for the Twins to field a team around a Mauer they’d be paying $20 million to with the remaining $80 million? Which is more than the entire payroll in 2009 WITH Mauer?
The average MLB salary is about $3 million. Taking in to account all the half-million dollar serfs that the Twins have, that leaves an awful lot of money left over.
There isn’t a “percentage” that you can’t work around… it’s the dollar amount that matters. Go back and look at the post JoeC did on salaries a while ago and then tell me they can’t afford to field a team around Mauer for $75-80 million over and above whatever they pay Mauer.
They absolutely can afford it, but will they do it?
quinlan is a no go please…could have used him 3-4 yrs ago, but now he has lost too much…i look at him like a poor mans harris..thats rough…we need to be looking at a guy like dye or id like to see cameron in this outfield mix…rid ourselves of alexi, harris, pridie and sign a real bench, meaning we need two guys to go along with morales, and tolbert…like i say dye would be nice start to new 2010 roster…..
I think the Twins are exploring many options.They won’t get a true sense of were the market is going until the winter meetings start in the next couple of weeks/
imo the pohlads don’t have a choice but to sign him for whatever it takes even if they have to dip into their dusty pockets. the whiplash from fan outrage would more than offset any money saved. no matter what they get in a trade or draft picks would make the fans get over him leaving.
can’t say gutierrez and shooter hunt look like a good return for torii at this point. draft picks are mostly misses, just think in 2016 we have the next perkins as our return for joe.
Well said, JC. I’m with you on that one. I think (well, maybe hope) Bill Smith and the Pohlads are, too.
This is tough. In 1989 we traded away Frank Viola and won the series two years later. In 1992 we signed Puckett to the most expensive contract in league history and didn’t pull ourselves out of the dungeon for 10 years.
I like Joe Mauer a lot, but if he really wants to win with this team, he should be ok with less than $20 mil. If he’s ok with losing with a lousy team or winning with a team on one of the coasts, he should ask for more.
And if the Twins want to win, they should set a cap of about $18 mil average per season. Any higher, and we’ll see you when Boston, LA or NY comes to town.
Sounds like Santana and Gaborik all over again. Mauer doesn’t want to be here thats OK he can continue to avoid paying Minnesota income taxes by get this not being a Minnesota Twin.
“like i say dye would be nice start to new 2010 roster…..”
Can Dye play some 1B?
Wheels, I hear what you’re saying, but don’t forget Puckett was also on the ‘91 team. So, it’s not like if you keep your stars on a small market team you’re doomed to failure. No matter how good you are, you still need some breaks to go your way to win the Series. Even for the Yankees. If just one or two things go a little bit differently and they are WS champions in ‘01 and ‘04. Maybe even ‘03.
But anyway, I still think that Mauer is a unique talent that we won’t see the likes of again in quite some time. I understand fiscal responsibility, but why not take that 52% of revenues model and look at it over a 10 year period? Maybe at least through the end of Morneau’s contract, the club could be at 57% or 58% of revenues and take a shot while the M&M window is open. After that, maybe the FO has to tear it down and rebuild it on the cheap for a while until the next class of Radkes/Hunters/Nathans come up from the minors or via trade. As a fan, I would understand that. I would understand it a lot more than letting Mauer go.
I don’t think one can count on revenue being there to support a large payroll. I don’t think the Pohlads will be willing to bank on that in these tough economic times.
The alleged economic recovery is being called a “jobless recovery”. Credit is still tight. Spending is down. They will get an attendance bump with the new stadium, but the excitement of that quickly fades. More layoffs are on the horizon.
I don’t think the Pohlads will make the big investment to keep Mauer. These guys are smart, and 200 mil total and 25 mil a year is too steep for this market. They know that. They won’t bury the organization for one player.
in 05 dye played one game at 1b and one at ss, other than that its dh and of….but i am willing to bet that hes athletic enough to learn to cover 1st but really cuddy could play 1b and dye move to rf for a change if needed
“But anyway, I still think that Mauer is a unique talent that we won’t see the likes of again in quite some time.”
No doubt about it. If he remains healthy he will go down in history as one of the all time greats in baseball.
Carew, Oliva and Puckett were great, but Mauer could be the best player to ever wear a Twins uniform.
Mauer isn’t going anywhere. He has too many ties to MN to be the most hated person in MN if he leaves and that is exactly what he’d be if he did go. Simple as that.
i just dont see any scenario that mauer leaves this state and plays anywhere else….he wants to be here with his buddies morneau etc…believe me, this kid will stay a twin and if the pohlands dont want to pay the fee, then its time to sell to someone who will, but they have the money and they realize what they have, so i dont think there is going to be any problem with mauer whatsoever…..
lets worry about filling out this roster with other guys that will help get this team to the world series…were about 4 people short right now the way i see it…two bench people, a 3b and two starters…harden and washburn?? pavano???
i guess thats 5 people….
The only reason I am confident Mauer will remain a Twin is that the Pholad boys are business men. I’m sure they realize the “negative” value of Mauer leaving.
As long as Shapiro doesn’t hit’em too hard with that club in negotiations.
just reading where boston has serious interest in harden…that will make it tough for the twins if it becomes a bidding war
Dye has said he would be open to playing 1st base.
Jim Rantz just told me that Valencia will play for Ponce in the Puerto Rican league and should be there no later than tomorrow.
As for the 20 percent rule, that originated a few years ago when Cleveland decided not to ante up with Man-Ram.
JimCrikket, I’m with you. I don’t see why the Twins can’t afford a $100 million payroll.
if the twins cant or wont come up with 100 million if needed, i feel that they have lied their asses off to all the public and that would be very shameful and embarassing- 2010 has all the makings of a great year and to have a new stadium and a team thats just a few players short of w.s. contention as of this date, before negotiations for free agents etc….i personally look for good things from the front office, even tho i have bashed them hard over the last couple seasons, i feel they are coming around and really want to win and theres no better time than now…
Boogie is spot on. Look for a six-year deal for around $120M.
There are very creative ways that Mauer could get every penny he wants, and the Twins could still have cap room flexibility.
He signs a 7 year 145 million dollar deal. We can then have 5-8 million of that per year deferred to be paid to him upon retirement which the team could then turn around and use to give him a percentage of the team as a minority owner if he were so interested.
I shouldn’t have said Cap Room flexibility… that’s a dream that will never happen.
Payroll flexibility is what I meant to say.
Romer,
I was listening to 670 out of Chicago and they were talking about Dye being their 1st baseman had they traded Konerko, and that Dye himself has said that he would be more than willing to invest the time in at 1st base.
That being said, I’m really not interested in him or Mike Cameron.
I would like to see Feliz or Lopez brought in here maybe both of them and put Punterrible on the bench where he would be the most valuable as a late inning defensive replacement, and as a pinch runner.
But number one is to sign Mauer, and number 2 should be to go after a guy like Ben Sheets, and maybe take a look at a 2nd vet… a John Smoltz, or a Mark Mulder or someone of that caliber that is not going to cost a lot of money.
There’s no doubt the Twins ‘could use a bat off the bench,’ but what does that have to do with Rob Quinlan?
a little sick of the MLBPA trying to force mauer to break the bank…
Quinlan and Pavano? Are Batista and Hernandez not available?
Pavano was one of the worst pitchers in the AL last year (if ERA matters). I don’t get it. Quinlan? His OPS the last three years was under .700, which would make him one of the 10 worst hitters in the game, if he had enough at bats to qualify.
I’m curious what the thought process is here, exactly. Why did we build them a new stadium, if guys like Quinlan will be signed?
Mauer doesn’t completely avoid income taxes. He needs to pay 2% of gross compensation earned for time spent entertaining in MN (if I just read the tax laws correctly), but yes, he moved to Florida for more than just the weather (but he’s still one of us, somehow). Can you really blame him?
2 places here - one in Fla. Smart move!
Don’t professional athletes pay pro-rated portions of their income taxes in the states they play games?
mike wants is dead on…we didnt build a stadium for the likes of robb quinlan, they told us we built a stadium so that we could compete with the others…well, now its time to show them the money, them being the guys who will fill out this team and lead it to a world series very soon….like i said earlier we need a 3rd baseman, two veteran starting pitchers, and two bats for the bench–my bench only has morales and tolbert on it so far, but i guess im not the gm so i dont count much, but i do like to say what i think would make this team great….
Thanks LaVelle, no wonder I was having a hard time remembering which team and which teammates Valencia would be with in the Dominican… since he is going to Puerto Rico.
He is playing for the Leones de Ponce, with prospect Angel Morales. He did tell me that he was heading there on the 10th, so I’m not sure if there is a miscommunication somewhere.
The Pohlad boys are all business,but also,i think,they want to clean up their father’s negative image.
Orlando Hudson is a free agent and the Dodgers didn’t offer him arbitration. I really thing the Twins should look into signing him.
mww and Chief are right. No Quinlan required. I would trade Pavano for a sandwich pick as well and look elsewhere, but it wouldn’t be Billy’s worst decision, would it? Sigh.
This was a suggestion I made last winter when we had a third base opening, just like we do again now — trade prospects with the Angels and get Brandon Wood and hand third base over to him. I love his power potential and he’ll be cheap and under control for awhile.
Great that Orlando Hudson doesn’t require a draft choice. With Hudson, Lopez, and Polanco all available, let’s hope the Twins get into the bidding and land a two hole 2B. Sign Crede for the same contract, bring Tolbert and Punto off the bench, trade Harris for a low A prospect.
If being able to hold a bat and sit on a bench makes you a bench bat, I almost qualify. The jeans I’m wearing are a little tight and I can’t sit down at the moment. If I ever get them off and change into something more comfortable, I’ll be a bench bat too.
i still think trading nathan would be a big plus for the twins - we should be able to land a quality starter to begin wtih …i really like what i read about slama and alex burnett…i really think those two are the very next keys to this bullpen along with neshek and others, but nathan has done us well, it may just be time to move on
“La Velle says:
December 1st, 2009 at 5:48 pm
JimCrikket, I’m with you. I don’t see why the Twins can’t afford a $100 million payroll.”
!!!!!!!!!!!!
My fellow blog contributors, our titular leader has now become one of US!
La Velle for President!!!
Hudson not getting arbitration was kind of the rumor going around the LA press for the past few weeks.
Hudson was slumping a bit after the All Star break and Torre all but banished him to the bench toward the end. I thought Torre was just playing the hot hand and would go back to his vet eventually. I put no stock what so ever in the rumors. I guess it’s official now.
Hudson is a career .280 hitter and a four time gold glove winner. I’d love to see the Twins snap him up. I could live with Punto playing third if they did.
On the downside, he probably won’t go cheap.
I also a bit confused as to why Hardy couldn’t bat 2nd?
Placido Polanco wasn’t offered arbitration. He could fill in the no. 2 spot in the line-up and secure second base. He is a decent bat and above average defender. Twins should try to work out a deal with him.
“in 05 dye played one game at 1b…”
Thanks, mj1, for looking that up. Like you said, Dye can do RF when Cuddy does 1B — which, IMO, should be at least 20 games minimum. He can DH against nasty lefties too. And be a big-gun pinch hitter.
we found the value of 4 OF last year and we should have that same situation again this year…losing gomez and gaining dye is good for me, i think hed be a great asset to this lineup–does this f.o. have the guts and willing to spend to get him….
mj1 says:
December 1st, 2009 at 5:29 pm
“i just dont see any scenario that mauer leaves this state…”
“lets worry about filling out this roster…”
Exactly. Presume that Mauer will be saying “show me the money” (that’s spent on strengthening the team); then you can deal with some sort of hometown discount thing with him.
2010 bench players
morales catcher
dye rf/dh
tolbert utility
aubrey huff or mike sweeney
thats what i would hope the twins would shoot for this winter…put together a real professional bench for a change….
nor more alexi, harris or pridies - package all of these guys in trades
But we still need a backup CF, mj1.
Huff?
Dye is 35, just came off 27 HR’s and 80+ RBI’s, and he’ll be looking for his last decent contract. So he would take less money to be a part-time OF/DH/1B/bench player with the Twins…WHY???
Podsednik would be a nice 4th outfielder. Dont know what kind of money he will make but he made 500K last year and 750k the year before. I am sure he will get a rasie but how much? If Young stumbles out of the gate he would look good in that two hole. Only problem is he is another lefty.
Good question, airhole. Basically, he’s a DH now. He looked pretty weak defensively late in the season.
There are other good DH types out there — Thome, Guerrero, Matsui (if he’s in the USA). The Angels and Yankees need DH’s. Anyone else paying big bucks for a new DH? Not that I know of.
So, a longshot — but Dye may become available to the Twins.
Posednik almost made the top 10 in the AL batting race. (And the Sux are still one starting OF position short).
Don’t know why the Sux cut him, and don’t know if he’d want to be a backup player.
I did think the exact same thing, that he probably wouldnt want to be a 4th outfielder. Probably more of a pipe dream on my part. My thought was that there probably wont be a huge market for him since most teams looking for outfield help are looking for power.
Wheels, it was 1990 that the Twins made Puck the highest paid player in baseball (for about a week), I think that turned out fine. His $30mil deal in ‘93 was not the richest in baseball (at least I don’t think it was).
I hate to be a buzzkill, but I’m guessing that about halfway through next year(or maybe sooner)alot of people are going to be complaining about Morales’ defensive abilities behind the plate.
Forget Dye my 3 year old covers more ground than him, that is part of the reason Chicago (not exactly a team that puts a lot of effort into defense)doesn’t want him. His bat is fine but he is at best a DH now. Also from all accounts Dye is basically an A$$hole, this from a team that has AJ as a catcher.
The name Morales and the term defensive skills don’t belong in the same sentence. This guy is a DH waiting to happen. The Twins already have Kubel,
Mauer, Morneau, Crede (if resigned) to fill that roll.
^which is why I say trade him and Kubel (yes he’s amazing, but still can’t hit lefties and has limited OF range) and keep Ramos for your future DH and backup Catcher
and Nathan loves Ramos if that means anything. still can’t get over him calling a change-up in that ST game.
mww,
Regarding Taxes, Mauer and the rest of the Twins’ players are considered full time residents as the “live” in the state for 6 months. That being said the pay MN State taxes on half of their income (for the 81 games played in MN). They also pay State income taxes in most of the states where they play games.
ARod had to pay MN income taxes on the $555,555 that he earns for the 3 games that he plays here.
thanks SweetOne. I wasn’t sure they actually qualified as residents, or paid outside entertainter taxes (like ARod did/does).
I’m not sure why people worry about if the backup catcher has great defensive skills or not. How many games will he play more than an innnig or two? How many teams even try to steal bases anymore? There likely isn’t any such thing as catcher ERA - it is the pitchers that determine how well they pitch.
I knew that Mauer report was bullpoo media farce as soon as I read it. Gee, Halladay said this, so let’s just say Mauer said the same thing.
And on a related story, Tiger Woods has just issued a deadline of Dec. 5th for making up and reporting marital relations rumors…
I’m no expert in business but as I’ve said before you can’t transfer money from on entity to another. But that’s not to say that I hope that the Pohlad’s can’t take a loss on the Twins and spend money and at the end of the day reap the family profits from Pepsico.
“keep Ramos for your future DH and backup Catcher”
Using your backup catcher as your DH is risky if the starting catcher gets injured, unless:
1) You have a backup backup catcher, which shortens your bench;
or
2) Your pitching staff can hit as well as your bench players. (not bloody likely)
Well said, JC. I’m with you on that one. I think (well, maybe hope) Bill Smith and the Pohlads are, too.
Last season’s aquisitions of Crede, Cabrera, Mahay, Rauch, and Pavano would suggest they are.
The fact they are considering bringing back Cabrera for 2B, have offered arbitration to Pavano, and didn’t mind that Rauch still has a year left on his contract would also suggest that.
To me, it looks like the Twins have built a strong core with Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Nathan. Those four guys are the bigger money players. Around them they’ve added younger inexpensive talent such as Young, Span, Blackburn, and Slowey. Then you’ve got guys like Baker, Kubel and Hardy that are between those two groups.
This gives Mauer a feel for who he can be expecting to play with if he signs long term. Meanwhile the Twins FO hopes that the young talent will mature into the kind of team that can generate enough local AND national interest to drive revenues to maintain their salary increases.
Assuming no further changes, the 2010 starting 9 will likely be (in no particular order):
Mauer
Morneau
Punto
Hardy
Valencia/Harris
Young
Span
Cuddyer
Kubel
And considering the Twins were in talks with Cabrera for 2B at one point, and were still kicking the tires on Beltre it’s likely that at least one more change to that group will be made before the offseason ends.
That looks like a pretty competitive lineup to me.
Why did we build them a new stadium, if guys like Quinlan will be signed?
Quinlan as a BENCH bat. It wouldn’t be like he’d be starting everyday.
I actually think the Twins got rid of Monroe too soon, he always seemed capable of getting a big hit in pinch-hit situations. Though I will admit I don’t have the stats and am just going off of those memorable PH homeruns he would hit.
Quinlan had an OPS under .700 for the last three years. How does that make him a bench BAT? There have to be tens of hitters better than him available. This is exactly what teams shouldn’t do, bring in old, washed up players in decline that are worse than AAAA players.
“Quinlan had an OPS under .700 for the last three years. How does that make him a bench BAT? There have to be tens of hitters better than him available. This is exactly what teams shouldn’t do, bring in old, washed up players in decline that are worse than AAAA players.”
I’d rather they carried a 3rd catcher (in turn making Morales pretty much the bench bat) thn carry a below average player like Quinlan. Tolbert is capable of doing the exact same thing that Quinlan would do.
Buscher was better last year than Quinlan.
393 hitters in baseball had a higher OPS and batted at least 100 times in the majors last year than Quinlan. That doesn’t count the ones in AAA (or lower) that could outhit him, if given the chance.
“Don’t professional athletes pay pro-rated portions of their income taxes in the states they play games?”
Yes. As SweetOne said, it all gets extemely complicated. I’m sure there are not many atheletes who do more than pay the CPA his fees and sign on the bottom of the front page.
Twins fans pining for Quinlan and Podsednik? C’mon let’s think out there. Even if you want them only as bench players, Quinlan’s ability at 3B has declined markedly from when he first came up, and his .241 liftime average with scant power is hardly inspiring.
Podsednik couldn’t get an MLB job at the beginning of last year because he is washed up. If the Sux weren’t so desperate for OF help during the season, they never would have brought him back. His OBP was beyond terrible for a lead-off hitter the last three years, .322, .299, .331; and his BA is barely better than LNP’s and he plays no defense. Right there is the reason to cross him off of your lists, Gardy will never take him.
Got to agree with GG - Quinlan doesn’t offer anything you couldn’t get (and more) by calling up Hughes. And I’m not a Jason Pridie guy but Podsednik isn’t better by a wide enough margin to pay extra for him.
Benny - Pods might be slower than pridie, but the guy’s bat is leaps and bounds better than pridie and he’s a veteran…no contest whose better.
I did imply that Pods is better than Pridie. But the Twins would be paying him way to much to be a spare part that can’t pinch-hit in the Twins’ lefty-heavy lineup.
Bench should have 4 guys:
C
INF(capable of playing multiple positions)
OF (capable of playing all 3 spots, defense 1st type of player ould be OK)
PH
As of now, Morales is the C, Tolbert is the INF, ??? OF, and ??? PH.
(this based on “if the season started today”, that Harris is the starter at 3B, and Punto the starter at 2B)
I see the need for some improvement….
Twins bench:
2 backup catchers
2 (s)crappy utility players
I don’t know why so many of you are against signing Quinlan. Sure he is not everyday starter quality, but as far as I am concerned, one of the priorities this season, besides resigning Mauer, signing 1 or 2 decent pitchers or adding a decent hitting 2nd or 3rd baseman, is bolstering the bench. For most of the season, bench guys like Casilla, Tolbert and Buscher were basically automatic outs. Quinlan is not the end-all solution to the lack of depth on the bench, but could be another valuable yet inexpensive piece to the puzzle. And in response to T, I do agree that Monroe, despite the numbers, was a decent bat to turn to on the bench, however because his lack of defensive depth, I don’t think he would be valuable for the Twins right now.
The Twins 40-man Roster is currently full. So they have to remove people in order to acquire new players (trade, outright or release).
I think one of the reasons that they want to get the Mauer deal done by Christmas is so that they can move 2 of the other 3 catchers on the 40-man (Morales and Ramos).
We need a backup CF that doubles as a bench bat, preferably right-handed. We don’t need a no-hit, no-field washed up player like Quinlan. There are dozens of players just as below-average and just as cheap as Quinlan that don’t solve any real problem for this team.
The fascination with Quinlan is mostly provincial.
Why would you go get Quinlan when Brendan Harris does everything Quinlan does, only better?
eric, Buscher outhit Quinlan. Quinlan had one of the worst OPS in the league. He also is old and declining (at best) on defense. We’ve offerred a lot of evidence that he has NO value. What do you mean by “valuable” in your post? He can’t hit (he was about Carlos Gomez like the last two years) and he can’t field, for three years now.
For his defenders, what does Quinlan offer other than being a “veteran presence”?
Ya, and if you’re not improving over Harris, then just keep Harris. Problem is, Harris is only productive with consistent (every day) playing time. It’s a catch-44: 22 for offense, and 22 for defense.
My guess is the only reason they are talking to Quinlan is because he asked to talk to the Twins and he’s from Minnesota. I don’t think they have an intentions of signing another marginal utility player.
Lot of arguing over bench players, which is ironic seeing as were are still two starting players short. I would prefer to see the Twins address at least one iunfield position before considering bench players.
“For his defenders, what does Quinlan offer other than being a “veteran presence”?”
I’m not a defender, but the one thing he would offer is the fact that Sid Hartman could finally find something else to write about other than how the Twins should get him! You can pretty much set your calander to that article once an off season….
maybe they are looking for a few more bench players they can use as starters, like they have in the past?
quinlan doesn’t make any sense unless sid is running the team.
I would like to see the Twins contact Miguel Tejada about playing 3b.
Tejada would be an interesting acquisition, but how much is he going to cost?
Dear Sid,
Please don’t talk Billy Smith into signing Robb Quinlan. I know that he’s a former Gopher and a local boy but we’ve got a baseball club to run here…
Twins Nation
“Tejada would be an interesting acquisition, but how much is he going to cost?”
That’s the bitchinest part. Who cares? Charge it!
Couldn’t resist. Thats a line from an old movie.
Can Tejada play a decent 3rd base? Would he be better than Pedro Felize when it comes to dollar for dollar? Could it be cheaper to bring back Crede who even if he is a platoon player with Valencia isn’t a terrible option. I would much rather see this team go after Ben Sheets, or try and look into the Astros’ Roy Oswalt since that team is going nowhere, and is at payroll issues, or Brandon Webb from AZ who as a sinker ball ground ball pitcher coming off of an injury could be pretty easy to get, and could be a dominating ACE for a team that has stellar defense.
also to get back to the previous blog… LaVelle, Chip Caray doesn’t suck as bad as Gordo or Gladden… can we get him here?
Expression451
I dont think that Sheets or Webb will be easy to get because their agents will be selling other teams with the same idea, low risk and high reward.
and can we please stop using the word NATION behind everything. It makes everyone look as stupid as Tim Brewster.
Webb isn’t a free agent. It would be a trade… so the idea of getting him involves the Twins putting together a good package for him, and Webb wanting a shot at a world series. I think that the Twins could be an ACE away if they stay healthy.
The Indians signed Brian Buscher.
I’m shaking in my boots.
“Though I will admit I don’t have the stats…”
T, at the time he was released, I believe Monroe was producing RBIs and HR’s at a rate higher than everybody except Morneau. Limited AB’s, and he wasn’t getting the job done vs. lefties — which was mostly why they hired him.
It was stupid to let him go.
“I think one of the reasons that they want to get the Mauer deal done by Christmas…”
Sid Hartman just said a very reliable source tells him negotiations won’t start until after Christmas.
T, you have Valencia/Harris as the probable starters at third. Did Gardy get fired?
Arizona will not be trading Brandon Webb this winter.
Scratch that fantasy off the wish list.
I have no idea why anybody is even considering spending money to bring in a bench player. Worry about the holes at 2nd and 3rd, plus the starting pitching.
Personally, I think there is zero chance that the Twins brass pursue free agents for 2nd and 3rd. Everybody knows Punto will be playing one or the other full time.
Beltre would be nice, but probably too expensive, so I think I would direct all my attention toward filling 2nd base and let Punto keep 3rd warm for Valencia (I think I read over on Gleeman’s blog that 3rd is Punto’s best position defensively).
There are a lot of nice options out there at 2nd and none of them would cost a draft pick. Polanco, Hudson or Lopez sounds pretty good to me (especially Hudson).
I was really impressed with Tolbert’s D at 3rd base. Rocket arm that was even more accurate than Crede’s. Batting they are a push. I don’t want both of them starting at the same time except maybe when Blacky is pitching. (ground baller)
“…3rd is Punto’s best position defensively”
It used to be. I think his arm is suspect now. I want him 2B and then see if he can hit .400 in the post season again.
Tolbert is a good utility guy for sure. And if he starts the year on the 25-man he may feel like he’s a MLB hitter at the plate too.
I agree with romer on Punto, actually his best position is on the bench utility guy. Twins need to fill second and third base from the free agent ranks.
As for a new Mauer contract -
The big risk seems to be future revenue. The owners have said they’ll spend about 52% of revenue on payroll, but the economy makes revenue projection iffy. What if renewed TV contracts are much lower price because advertisers (trucks and beer) can’t afford high cost commercials?
A few have suggested Joe get some Twins stock as compensation. That could work. He could also accept some at-risk compensation, say $15M per year base plus a percentage of revenue above $150M per year. Would the player’s union support that or not?
It’s almost unanimous that Punto is a lousy starter and a good utility guy. There are many good reasons Punto has started in the past, and their names are Casilla, Buscher, Harris, Tolbert, Crede, Macri, Ojeda, Rodriguez….
Billy Smith, give Gardy a two-way player for 3B, SS, and 2B that can stay in the lineup. For once. Please. I can’t take another season of ignorant complaints that Gardy starts Punto despite having all these other fantastic but secret options. And friends, please don’t tell me Harris is an option. He’s a disaster on defense, he really is.
MLBTradeRumors.com has a link to a John Heyman article that says the Phillies and Placido Polanco are close to signing a 3 year, $18MM deal.
Wow.
To change topics slightly, The Twins have 8 arbitration eligible players. Are any of them non-tender candidates?
Young, Neshek, Hardy & Guerrier are obvious keepers, but are any of Boof, Crain, Harris & Liriano subject to be non-tendered?
i think harris is gone.
if sid can work out a deal to bring in a few washed up gophers we’ll be ok.
well 5-6 mill per is pretty good for Placido. but 3 years is a bit iffy.
Harris maybe, but he will probably only cost 1 mill. I think Crain is a possibility, but as long as he’s around 2 mill (and not 3 mill like he’s projected) I am cool with that as well
“Phillies and Placido Polanco are close to signing a 3 year, $18MM deal.”
WTF?
$6 million per year for Utley’s backup?
There is something about that, that I obviously am overlooking.
medschoolmatt -
That’s my thought as well. He’s 34, and they are moving him over to 3rd. Seems like a large commitment to make.
Although, I guess I’m not sure if Polanco is that much of an upgrade over Feliz for the Phillies. Feliz was a very good defensive 3B. Polanco should be able to handle the position, but I doubt he will be as good as Feliz with the glove. They could have picked up Feliz’ option and got nearly identical production without the extra 2 years.
Also, I’m surprised they jumped this early in the free agent period. I know he doesn’t cost a draft pick, but the free agent market is pretty deep in terms of third basemen.
SweetOne
I read somwhere that Boof might be non tendered but that’s just a rumor of course.
OK.
Got it.
Polanco’s range is shrinking, so he will switch to 3B.
The guy is a professional hitter, so it is worth the risk for the chance to keep him on the field for a few more years.
“The guy is a professional hitter, so it is worth the risk for the chance to keep him on the field for a few more years.”
Polanco’s offensive numbers have decreased each of the past two seasons. And he hasn’t played third since 2005. It seems like an unnecessary gamble for a team like the Phillies.
The Phillies are trying to win now, while their nucleous is together. That may be why we Twins’ fans don’t recognized what they are doing…..
“Polanco’s offensive numbers have decreased each of the past two seasons.”
He is 34 years old.
If his numbers continue to decrease for 10 more years, they will still be better than his counterparts on the Twins.
Plus “numbers” don’t showcase his ability to advance runners.
There, now that’s the mww we know. Yep. The Twins want to win later, after their nucleus is not together. Myopic thinking at best. Sure wish the Twins had some knowledgable, competent sorts in charge. You know, people like mww who realize what a breeze it is to field a winner. You just have to want wins, you know? Like the Phillies, and like mike wants wins. Not like the Twins, who don’t want wins. Until later. Sheesh.
my vote for pod!!
“The Phillies are trying to win now, while their nucleous is together. That may be why we Twins’ fans don’t recognized what they are doing…..”
““Phillies and Placido Polanco are close to signing a 3 year, $18MM deal.”
WTF?”
~ This exemplifies the frustration of Twins fans (or at least me). If the Twins stretch out to retain our core players, we must upgrade by acquiring good/better players for “reasonable” contracts.
Problem is, one of the Market-Monsters will always come along to absorb and/or distort the talent pool by issuing “unreasonable” contracts.
Inherently, the “unreasonable” contract will fail. When it does, the Market-Monsters flush it down the contract-disposal and move on. But MLB does not issue non-monster teams a contract-disposal. Instead, they are issued a plastic lined knap-sack, to be carried around, stench and all, until the contract decays naturally. Of course these GM’s do not want their knap-sacks to become TOO smelly, or TOO full.
I always forget that the only requirement for POD is to repeat some tired old bash Strib meme…
T, you have Valencia/Harris as the probable starters at third. Did Gardy get fired?
Gardy had no issue fielding a starting lineup that did not include Punto in 2008.
I’ve said it before, I’ll repeat it here…Punto will likely be the starting 2B. If the Twins get a new starting 2B, then Punto will go to the bench until Harris (or Valencia) melts down at 3B.
“The guy is a professional hitter, so it is worth the risk for the chance to keep him on the field for a few more years.”
The worthwhile risk, of which I was speaking, is Polanco’s switch to 3B.
The risk of a 3-year/$18 million contract is a different matter.
That risk may not be so worthwhile.
“He is 34 years old.
If his numbers continue to decrease for 10 more years, they will still be better than his counterparts on the Twins.
Plus “numbers” don’t showcase his ability to advance runners.”
sane, I really hope this is sarcasm that I can’t see. Because that’s crazy.
His offensive numbers last year were worse than the ones Punto put up 2 years ago. Punto actually had a higher OBP this past season than Polanco did, while playing nearly identical defense. If Polanco’s offensive numbers decline again - or even if they stay the same - there is a very real possibility that Nick Punto will be more valuable than Placido Polanco in 2010.
t only 18 comments to this point today so the bar is fairly low at this point!
“there is a very real possibility that Nick Punto will be more valuable than Placido Polanco in 2010″
That means the Twins will have to offer Punto a 3-year $20 million contract to keep him after this season.
“Punto actually had a higher OBP this past season than Polanco did”
If OBP is the only number you care about, you have convinced yourself and others who live by that stat.
‘09 OPS
Punto .621
Polanco .727
Career OPS
Punto .647
Polanco .761
If you believe that:
1) Punto outhit Polanco last year, or
2) Punto will outhit Polanco next year, or
3) Punto is/was a better professional hitter (including advancing runners) than Polanco is/was at any stage of their careers;
then you are comfortable being in the overwhelming minority of conventional baseball opinion.
bop, I’d posted so many positive things lately (like on Seth’s site pointing out signing Pavano might not be a gad idea) that I couldn’t take it. I didn’t want to completely change my style. Some people really take these comments seriously, for cr*p we throw out their for something to talk about….I don’t, but I should remember more carefully that others do before posting.
As for my comment, up until last year, other than adding Shannon Stewart, when did the Twins go out and acquire veterans that weren’t at the lower end of the pay scale? Their actions last year were quite different than previous years, and I’m very happy about that. But, to claim that they’ve often (more than 1 or two times in the last decade before last year) gone out and signed a vet that made serious money (or traded for one) would be a stretch, wouldn’t it?
I’m glad that last year showed they are changing their approach. You’ll have a hard time convincing me that was their approach before last year though. I think it bodes well for the future, but it doesn’t change the past.
ugh, does my bad speeeeeling look as bad to others as it does to me sometimes?
sane -
OBP certainly isn’t the only number I care about. It is a fairly important number, no doubt, but not the only one.
As for your points. I don’t believe 1, and have no idea how you are going to prove 3. Point 2, however, is a debatable point.
Punto’s OPS from 2008 and 2006 is nearly identical to Polanco’s from last year, so we know that Punto can hit as well as Polanco did this previous season.
If Polanco’s offensive numbers continue to dip next year - or even if they stay the same - I can easily envision a situation where Punto will be more valuable than Polanco.
Do I expect Punto to out hit Polanco next year? No. But I would rather have Punto for $4MM and one year than Polanco for $18MM over 3 years.
(like on Seth’s site pointing out signing Pavano might not be a gad idea)
I can’t tell if you meant to write “good” and put “bad” or if you meant to type “bad” and put “good”. 
This year I would much rather have Polanco in the lineup than Punto.
Over three years…I’d rather have neither.
Not sure bout Palonco at 3B (ain’t seen the arm) but I was hoping the Twins would’ve pursued him for 2B. He’d be perfect batting 2nd. That’s 2 big holes that would’ve been plugged. 6M per is a lotta dough though. NOT
I spose Victorino slides down in the order now. They’re gonna have a lineup to rival the Yanks now.
I agree with Neyer about 70% of the time, but this is a good post, and the last few paragraphs are especially relevant to discussions of benches and overall payrolls:
Yeah, hence my comment on my speeeeling.
I think Pavano could be a decent signing, but I’d want it matched with Sheets or someone else that has a higher ceiling. Pavano is a number 3/4 type. They can afford his salary for that this year, and maybe next. But at some point, the money they’ll need to give him becomes too much for a guy that is about average in quality starts in the league.
I think MWW just came up with a great new word for when your not sure if it’s a good thing or bad thing it’s a gad thing.
mww,
The Twins have more revenue and fewer holes. Hence the new strategy, launched last year, of filling a few holes with surer bets. It’s simple cause and effect. Why did they choose to go with the bargain bin strategy? From a financial standpoint, they couldn’t justify it.
They’ve incurred setbacks: Casilla flopped, Perkins and Liriano dissappointed, Gomez and Young failed to step up, Bonser and Neshek went on the shelf, etc. As a result, they have four holes to fill, same as last winter. The difference is that this offseason, they have the financial wherewithal AND the market opportunities to solve them. I push back at those of you who tend towards oversimplifying the task of improving the ballclub and those of you who don’t cut the Twins management much slack. If the Twins enter the 2010 season without a 2B two hole solution from outside the organization, I will join in the criticism. I’m very optimistic, although the Phillies peed in my punchbowl with that irresponsible 3yr $18M offer to Polanco. If Hudson and Lopez get offered three-year, $20M deals, I’m less optimistic.
bop,
“If the Twins enter the 2010 season without a 2B two hole solution from outside the organization, I will join in the criticism.”
I think they can successfully fill these holes from the inside. With Punto at 2B and JJ batting 2nd. I think JJ spend most of his ABs in Wisc. there.
But then they GOTTA fill 3B with something good. Ala Beltre or Tejada.
I don’t completely agree with your premise that they could not afford it earlier this century, when they employed Jason Tyner as a DH. I think they could have afforded to try something different there. But, I agree, they do now have a different resource structure than they did before, and I’m optimistic they’ll spend money to fix the holes (though it might not work, there are no guarantees).
Gomez failed to step up only if we ignore his defense, which for some reason the Twins did last year. I think he was greatly undervalued because of his bad offense.
Pete D,
“Do I expect Punto to out hit Polanco next year? No. But I would rather have Punto for $4MM and one year than Polanco for $18MM over 3 years”
No argument there.
I don’t expect Polanco to be a six-million-dollar bargain in three years. (at age 37)
mike i think his lack of baseball iq is what did him in.
The Twins 40-man-roster is filled, so I am assuming that they won’t be active in the MLB portion of the Rule V Draft next Thursday.
On another subject:
Aaron Hicks attends our HS workouts 2-3 times per week, and it is obvious he is bigger and stronger than he was last off-season.
It appears that he is driving the ball better, as he bulks up and his hitting develops.
Paul,
I’ve read a lot of opinions that Hardy is not ideal for the two hole, and I’ve been fixated I guess on the Hudson Lopez Polanco prize. There are lots of internal options for both 2B and 3B, but none that excite me, especially as everyday two hole guys. Who do you see as a successful option at 2B (or 3B) among Casilla, Punto, Tolbert, Harris, Tolleson, Dinkleman, Hughes, Plouffe, Singleton? I’d rather see a two-year solution at 2B and a placeholder solution, like Crede or Glaus, at 3B.
bop,
I agree he is not ideal batting 2nd. But he does have experience there. That means his coaches put him there knowing he wasn’t ideal. That means something to me.
“fixated I guess on the Hudson Lopez Polanco prize”
Me too, but add in my fixation on the potetial 3B prizes. I could be happy with Crede and I’ve always liked Glaus. If they judge either of their health risks acceptable, great.
I don’t know enough about the minor league players you cited to speak entellojuntlee about them. But I am a Punto fan, his brain f*rt roundin 3B against the Yanks notwithstanding. I think he is the best in house option and I think he will do fine. This is an even year ya know.
sane, good to hear. I’m hoping Hicks is legit. It would be great to see that kind of all around athlete more and more. Guys that can hit, run, and catch are the most fun to watch for me.
mike,
“Guys that can hit, run, and catch are the most fun to watch for me.”
I hope that you also like to watch players with A+ arms throw the ball, because (right now) that tool that is Hicks’ #1 show-stopper.
Since Polanco got 3 years/$18 million, I think Hudson and even Lopez probably just got more expensive than the what the Twins want to pay. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
As for whether the Twins can afford to increase payroll, I just read an interesting article in the SF Comical, er, Chronicle, about revenue sharing profits. Seems as if the Twins are near the top in operating income accotding to Forbes. Here is the link. http://www.sfgate.com/columnists/shea/. I’m not one who normally takes the “Cheap bleeping Pohlads” approach to life, but this provided some food for thought.
signed a vet that made serious money (or traded for one) would be a stretch, wouldn’t it?
I know the realities of the market but it still depresses me that 3mil a year or that range is not considered serious money for playing baseball all summer. Mostly it depresses me that I am not the one doing it even for that frivolous amount. Especially considering I need some substantial raises to total that amount for 40 years of doing something a lot less fun.
the good news is one less buyer for beltre or derosa should the Twins get serious about them.
on another note, Thry still seems pretty intent on his Twitter account that the Twins are landing Uggla and a pitcher (probably not JJ) from florida
Boneyard,
Those Forbes amounts don’t take into account debt service.
In fact, I would be surprised if the team owners weren’t still paying themselves back for the money they borrowed from themselves to buy the team.
here is a link to the 2008 #’s.
interesting is the twins value is up to 356m from 219m in 05. rev of 158m so the 52% for salary would be 82m which they were well below. 26.8m in income which could be made to look like a loss with a good accountant which i’m sure the pohlads have hundreds.
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/33/baseball-values-09_The-Business-Of-Baseball_Rank.html
Pete D.
You said that Punto is, or can be more valuable than Polanco? I think you have really lost it my friend. I know I’m considered the biggest anti-punto guy in the world, but seriously read what you wrote!
Why don’t you compare it like this. in 2007, and 2009 Nick Punto was so bad at the plate that when you look at his place in history only IVAN DeJESUS is a worse ball player in the last 70 years. Buddy Biancalana was better, and so was Lombardozi!
Polanco is a professional hitter that can get the job done.
Punto is getting 4.5 million dollars to be the ball player he is… when Ceasar Izturus made 1.3 million last year and out produced him.
I haven’t heard either of them connected to the Twins, but maybe they ought to consider Jamey Carroll or Adam Kennedy to play 3rd?
Bird of Prey
I’m with you. I want Lopez 1, Hudson 2, and Polanco 3 for the middle infield.
But I’m praying for the team to go after Ben Sheets above all else since they probably don’t have enough to trade for an Ace.
Benny,
Not sure that either of those two are legit starters at this point in their careers, and we have Harris, Valencia, Punterrible, and Tolbert… so unless we are going to get a real starter at 3rd it’s really kind of pointless don’t you think?
See the Neyer blog today about “revenue”.
Yes, sane, I forgot to list throwing. I just like to watch athletes that are great at their job at work, that’s why I watch baseball and football and college basketball and golf.
Gomez failed to step up only if we ignore his defense, which for some reason the Twins did last year. I think he was greatly undervalued because of his bad offense.
I think in Gomez’s case, the defensive upgrade from him and any of Span/Young/Cuddyer was not enough to outweight the offensive downgrade from him and any of Span/Young/Cuddyer.
If you get right down to it, Cuddyer’s injuries in 2008 were the worst thing to happen to Gomez, as it lead to the emergence of Span from seemingly out of nowhere.
Paul: what debt service did the Twins have in ‘08 that would, relative to the other 23 teams not referenced in the article, alter the picture as painted? I can see that changing through the early years of Target Field, but probably not for ‘08. I’m no accountant, so that’s a serious question.
I think the Twins need a guy to bat from the right side, get on base at a good clip, and play plus defense.
How can a Twins fan agree with Rob Neyer 70% of the time? The guy absolutely REFUSES to acknowledge the Twins as even a decent team, every year. Combine that with his lame @ss glamour shot on ESPN and he is definitely a huge hoser not worth listening to.
“Buddy Biancalana was better, and so was Lombardozi!”
what’s your point? royals won it all in 1985 with biancalana, twins won it all in 1987 with lombardozzi …
Boneyard,
I’m not an accountant either but I’ll take a stab.
If you click on the link ggg posted at 2:33, and then click on the Twins name to get to their page, and dig into this stuff, I think you will see what I saw. $99.7M debt. This includes stadium debt which I do not think was too high in April 09, where these numbers come from.
Possible debt:
The team was bought in 1984 with borrowed money. $44M
I don’t know how many years the Twins have lost money, but I’ve been told it’s a lotta years. I betcha most every dollar the team lost was then borrowed to “makes ends meet”.
Some material purchases were undoubtably done with debt.
Finally, I used to be part owner of 2 corporations that did business with each other. I’m assuming the owners of the Twins saw the same oportunities our accountants did.
Boneyard,
Here’s another thought for ya. The Yanks debt to value ratio is 95%. With an operating loss. I’m sure this is structured to allow his kids to survive the estate tax when he croaks.
“I’ve said it before, I’ll repeat it here…Punto will likely be the starting 2B. If the Twins get a new starting 2B, then Punto will go to the bench until Harris (or Valencia) melts down at 3B.” - T
No way. Gardy played Tolbert in front of Harris and he likes Punto better than Tolbert.
