The latest update
Posted on August 25th, 2009 – 5:10 PMBy John Millea
I just finished writing a story for tomorrow’s paper, and here are some of the things I learned from making lots of phone and email contacts today …
–Prior Lake could be a big player in all this. I confirmed that Prior Lake is actively looking to leave the Missota for a new conference, and the idea of joining up with EP and the four Classic Lake schools is a real possibility as soon as 2010-11.
–Bloomington Kennedy and Jefferson could end up in the Missota by next fall. The move of Chaska and Chanhassen from the Lake to the Missota could pave the way for that to happen.
–Lake decisions could come quickly. Lake bylaws state that schools leaving the league must make that decision by Oct. 1 for the move to take effect the following fall. So if anybody wants to leave the Lake for 2010-11, they must decide in the next few weeks.
–This blog is read by some of the major figures in this situation. One of the people heavily involved in this told me today, “I read through some of the comments (after the MSHSL meeting), and I think some people who are regular bloggers are really right on with their comments.”
Nice going, folks.
John Millea is on Twitter at www.twitter.com/stribjohn
41 Responses to "The latest update"
So John, do those schools think six teams would make a viable conference if Prior Lake does join up with the big boys? It at least gets them out of an odd number of teams, but six would still lead to needing quite a bit of non-conference scheduling wouldn’t it?
Prior Lake would not win one football game in a six team conference. It would have trouble scoring a TD in most of the games. As for hockey and basketball, another season of few or no conference wins. Hard to believe the people of PL will stand for this.
Thor, I don’t think anyone has thought that far ahead just yet. Six teams is certainly better than five, but I’m sure those schools would like a bigger group. Since deadlines loom on a lot of this for 2010-11, we may know a lot more in a relative hurry.
Fisherman -
I agree that for the first couple of years Prior Lake wouldn’t fare too well in a Classic Lake (revisited) but give them a couple of years and you’ll have a power (in my opinion) - they’ll get the kids from nearby that want to play with the best in the state (ok, my CL bias is showing) in FB, BB and other sports, but don’t want to go to EP, Tonka or Wayzata.
Thank you legislature for open enrollment.
John - Can the 4 teams that got placed in the Lake now decide to bail? It would be interesting to say the least if those 4 left the Lake and EP and PL along with MG from the NWSC decided to join them. (yes, I have a MG fetish)
That would give them a 7 team conference (the four CL, EP, PL, MG) Then the scheduling issue would be to find an opponent every week during FB season. STMA might be a good 8th team - in kind of the same situation as PL - High growth area, lots of kids and sure to recover from the recession soon.
By the way John - thank you for giving us this forum to debate and discuss - nice to know that people in the know are reading these comments and that we’re not completely crazy.
The Missota would be a great move for the Bloomington schools.
Hutchinson has already left and Prior Lake and Red Wing want out. Next year the Missota could be:
Bloomington Jefferson
Bloomington Kennedy
Chaska
Chanhassen
Shakopee
Holy Angels
New Prague
Northfield
Farmington
I see such a conference being very competative.
Prior Lake is in the middle of the pack in the Missota. How do they figure to be able to compete with EP, Wayzata, Edina, Hopkins and Tonka?!?!? After a few years playing with those teams, they will be back south of the river looking for a different conference. With Chaska, Chan, Shakopee in the Missota, I don’t see why Prior Lake would want to move.
Kudos to Prior Lake if they make this move to join Eden Prairie and the 4 Classic Lake teams. We’ll see how it shakes out and the how/when the Dakota Conference forms. But that’s a bold move for PL.
Sure, the Lakers may struggle. But PL is a fast growing school and it makes no sense for them to play in the Missota, then have to play the big schools come playoff time.
I also don’t Jefferson is a good fit for the Missota, but Kennedy would be. But then again, I’m sure Jefferson wants to stay w/Kennedy. And Kennedy would not be a good fit w/EP, PL and the 4 CL teams. Jefferson would have figthing chance at least.
I’m wondering if maybe we are missing the point of all of this. The HSL may be wanting to say, ‘These CL schools had been in the Lake for a long time in the past. They should go back there. After all, it is the Lake (Mtka) Conference. Let’s put them back and let the Lake members decide what they want to do.’
In my opinion, they already have good non-conference and previous rivalries. Let the Lake members decide. No matter the outcome today and what the Lake members do, the HSL will probably need to do more work next summer anyway. Stay with the logical option now and let the chips fall. I was at EP in the late 80s and we had 3 divisions in some sports-red, white, and blue. It was way too big. From Osseo to EP to Rosemount. We got pummeled in most sports for a few years-4 football wins in 4 years total for one example. So I don’t think the PL issue is a top concern to the Lake problems right now.
Thats a good pount by Bob. Nobody probably remembers this, but Eden Prairie did stuggle hugely for a long time, and they did seem to turn it on overnight with rapid growth in their district. That samething will probably happen with Prior Lake.
PL makes no sense for the Missota when their enrollment will be around 2300 (which is even bigger than Hopkins and Edina) while the rest of the Missota will be in the low 1000’s. Give it a couple years and they’ll be very competitive with the new Lake.
And lets hope the Bloomingtons move to the Missota instead of Dakota County. Competitively and geographically the Dakota makes no sense for them.
Thor your comment about the Dakota county conference not making no sense geographically is shaky. Have you looked at a map and seen where New Prague, Northfield and Farmington are located? They are furher away than the Rosemount and Lakeville schools. If Red Wing stays in the Missota, the 75 mile round trip from Wayzata to Rosemount is going to look a lot better than the 65 miles one way from Jefferson to Red Wing. This isn’t about travel times if the Bloomington schools are joining the Missota.
Cully -
If we take the Rosemount Principal at face value - the point wasn’t necessarily about distance alone, it was about distance and travel time together. I worked in the south metro and did the 494 / 169 commute every day. Even with the 3 lanes all the way now, it’s not a fast commute. His point was to get up to Wayzata for a game - they’d have to leave 2 hours earlier. Plus put their kids on the road with a lot more people. The commute for a Dakota conference would be a lot easier even though the distance would double.
Now, though, it’s time for the Lake Conference Schools Gut Check. Do the schools have engough guts to follow through on their threat and walk away from the Lake? Will Prior Lake join the presumed 5 remaining Lake schools? Will Maple Grove and perhaps STMA or Buffalo join them?
Stay tuned for more as the MSHSL Conferences Turn….
I’m assuming Red Wing will move elsewhere…Big Nine maybe? I think I heard on this blog Northfield might look at leaving too, maybe they’d go with Red Wing. If those two stay, which I doubt, the yeah, it isn’t about travel times.
But for the Dakota schools it makes no sense to take the Bloomingtons.
Cully -
Farmington is opening their large new high school this fall. With its location near Cedar Ave on the Lakeville/Farmington border, it will actually be closer to Bloomington then either of the Lakeville schools. That said, I expect Farmington to bail on the Missota as well, and join with LS, LN, AV, Eastview, Rosemount, Eagan, and Burnsville to form an eight team ‘Dakota’ conference.
Wayzata Dave: Why would Buffalo and STMA leave a conference where they were a founding member only a few years ago? They are not the only two schools in the Mississippi 8 conference that will experience growth in the coming years, Monticello, Big Lake, and Rogers are all in the same boat, plus they have long standing rivalries with those schools.
Merx -
I’m not saying it’s going to happen…just saying that it could happen.
Right now we have a 14 team Lake conference, which 9 of the 14 teams may not want to be a part of any longer. That leaves a 5 team conference… That’s what got us into this mess in the first place. Given the other conferences schedules and difficulties faced with an odd number of teams in a conference - my guess is that the 5 teams would be looking for 1 or 3 teams to join them. The current hot rumor is that Prior Lake wants out of it’s conference - so add them to the mix. That gives you a six team conference - better than a 5 team conference but not perfect. Geographically, it would make sense that (and this is pure speculation) Maple Grove would join… that’d be a 7 team conference… Who does that leave to join? Rogers? Buffalo? STMA? Who knows? I’m just speculating and guessing.
Based on my limited knowledge of the situation - here’s my look into the future:
1. Lake Teams (9 of them) vote to leave and form a new conference.
2. The five remaining Lake teams get Prior Lake to join them.
3. Another team or two joins the Lake
At that point we’re done with this for a while. Odds - 76%
Of course maybe #1 happens…and #2’s and 3 don’t. Then we’ve got a 5 team Lake Conference that has scheduling difficulties and votes to disband. Then we’re back with the MSHSL next year trying to get them to place teams in conferences. Odds of this happening 50%
Or maybe #1 doesn’t happen - then we have a 14 team Lake Conference and everyone is happy. Odds of this happening 10% or less.
Wayzata Dave,
Don’t underestimate the desire of many of the current Lake schools to withdraw and form a new conference. As John mentioned a while ago, the public discussion on this topic will most certainly force this topic onto school board agendas. I believe that the decision makers on the fate of Lake Conference will be superintendents and school board members and the decision will be based upon geography and transportation costs. While they will look to their principals, activities/athletics directors, and coaches/advisors for input, make no mistake about it, this will be their decision.
Chuck, I think you nailed it. From the discussions I have had, Lake school boards and superintendents will make these decisions. Principals and ADs have gotten in hot water with their administrations for trying to be the big hitters in this deal.
Chuck -
I don’t think I said it would be up to the principals - did I? I believe in the article that John wrote (non-blog) that he quoted a principal. If he didn’t then I misread that.
I agree that the boards and supers will make the calls on this. Will it make it onto an actual agenda? Doubt it. If it does it will be a consent agenda item which is largely settled at a “Work” session of the board. Or it will be a quiet agreement between the board and Super.
Wayzata Dave- One word of advice: DECAF!
But on a more serious note, why this fixation on Maple Grove and getting them to move? What leads you to believe that they are not perfectly happy in the NWSC? It seems that the odd man out in the NWSC is Elk River, not MG, and THEY won’t be joining your conference any time soon. Hard to believe the Osseo School Board would just let MG go their own way. Also, why agitate to get STMA, Buffalo, Rogers or STMA out of their conference and join your oh-so-precious proposed “new” Lake conference? I would be stunned if any of them would even pick up the phone and then voluntarily join the list of the string of dead bodies your schools leave in your wake (Mound, StLP, Cooper, Armstrong)
Elk River is already leaving the NWSC for football.Elk River will play in the Mississippi 8 for football only beginning with the 2010 season. The current plan is to stay in the NWSC for all other sports, but I think we can look for them to join the M8 on a full time basis in the near future. That league is a much better fit for Elk River.
I’m starting to think of this in a different way. The schools that can’t compete in the new Lake Conference because of size are probably the Bloomington schools. Maybe they should apply to the Missota now that Chan and Chaska are new members. The new Missota would be:
Jefferson
Kennedy
Chan
Chaska
Shakopee
Prior Lake
New Prague
Northfield
Farminton
Holy Angels
Red Wing
I don’t think PL fits at all with EP, Edina, Tonka, Hopkins and Wayzata. I know some of you are saying, “well EP was getting beat up when they first came to the Lake, so I’m sure PL will adjust and get better.”
The problem is I’m not sure when PL won it’s last Missota conference championship in football. Chaska was doing very well when they left the Missota for for the Lake and they never were able to compete well in football. Maybe I’m wrong and PL is a power waiting to happen. Lakeville, Chaska, Apple Valley, Rosemount, and Burnsville were all dominating the Missota when they left for the Lake. I don’t see that happening with PL at the moment. Plus by adding Chan and Chaska and having Farmington, Shakopee and Northfield growing, the Missota is not a weak conference, especially if you add Jefferson and Kennedy.
If Prior Lake does want to switch conferences, they should join the new Dakota Conference. Here would be that conference:
Burnsville
Apple Valley
Lakeville North
Lakeville South
Eastview
Eagan
Rosemount
Prior Lake
The drive time between that group of schools is nothing. It also makes more sense for PL to go to that conference. I don’t know why they would want to drive up to Wayzata, Hopkins, Tonka or Edina.
The Bloomington schools could either play with the CLC teams and EP, or go to the Dakota or Missota conference. Because of the size of Jefferson and Kennedy I know where I’d want to go if I were them. I have a feeling that the Dakota conference teams would leave the Bloomington schools out if they didn’t have another option, but I think a better option for them would be to go to the Missota.
Jefferson
Kennedy
Shakopee
Farmington
Chaska
Chan
Holy Angels
Northfield
New Prague
Red Wing
If Red Wing and/or New Prague or Northfield want to go to the Big Nine they could.
*The Dakota schools wouldn’t leave the Bloomington schools out, if they didn’t have another option.
My first option would have the New Lake as:
North division:
Hopkins
Wayzata
Edina
EP
Tonka
Burnsville
South division:
LN
LS
Eastview
AV
Rosemount
Eagan
Eric - that all makes sense, but by my math that still leaves MSHSL with a 5 team lake conference… which is why this whole thing started in the beginning.
The fact of the matter is that with the travel restrictions imposed by the MSHSL and the size of other conferences a 5 team league is always stuck with 1 team trying to find a game every week of the season and plus the additional non-conference games that they have due to having only 4 conference games.
Example: This year Wayzata plays Eastview, Wisconsin Rapids, and Lakeville North for Non-Conference games and they are playing Tonka in a Home and Home series. Lakeville and Wisc. Rapids are 2 of the last 3 games of the season - prime conference playing time…
Dave
If I’m PL, I would much rather join the Dakota Conference, rather than go play Wayzata and all those CLC teams. Everyone of the Dakota Conference teams is closer than the closest CLC school, and they don’t have to cross the river. I can see PL doing that and being possibly successful in a few years.
Yeah but Eric, PL will still be stuck with those CLC + EP teams anyways if they don’t join the new Lake. Why? The MSHSL will place them in the Dakota County Conference when the new 5 tean Lake disbands. PL will be playing the CLC schools + EP one way or another. They’ll leave the Missota because of being more than twice the size of the remaining Missota schools (with the exception of Shakopee). They’ll compete just fine in a couple years. They’re already going to bigger than Hopkins and Edina, and as big as Minnetonka. Look at size and demographics, they fit great with the CL + EP. All it will take to get competitive is coaching and establishing the programs. And that’s something that is under PL’s control.
Here are the enrollments for this year.
PL 2003
Wayzata 3091
Edina 2364
Tonka 2777
Hopkins 2190
EP 3079
PL is not twice as big as Chan, Farmington, Chaska, Shakopee or Northfield (or New Prague for that matter) which is almost the whole conference. PL probably hasn’t won the Missota conference in football probably since the 70’s. The Dakota conference is a much better fit if they are going to switch conferences. PL new high school is almost in west Lakeville, a few miles south of 42!!! Why would they drive all the way up to Hopkins, Wayzata, Tona and Edina? I could see them fitting in well with the Dakota conference, but i don’t see them going up to the CLC. You guys from Edina and Wayzata are going to have to look a different direction for teams in your conference in my opinion. That’s one reason if the Dakota Conference teams don’t want the CLC teams in their conference, they should leave out the Bloomington schools and go with Hastings, Burnsville, Eastview, Rosemount, Eagan, Apple Valley, Prior Lake, Lakevile North and Lakeville South. I would include Farmington as well, but I think they are having success where they are and don’t want to go get beat up with those other schools. Everyone of those schools would have no longer than a 20 minutes drive to each other, don’t have to cross the river and all about the same size.
Eric, PL’s enrollment is going up to 2300 according to their AD when the MSHSL releases their next figures come mid-September. So yes they are twice the size, when Chaska-Chan are each 1200-1300, Northfield, New Prague around 1000, and the Bloomingtons in the low 1000’s with Red Wing and HA below 1000. Prior Lake’s growth is fairly recent too, that’s why you haven’t seen them dominate the Missota yet. EP didn’t dominate the Lake either when they first joined. I think in one five year period they won like a total of 4 football games. Its all about coaching and development. That’s what it will take to compete with the EP + CL. Other than that they have evrything they need to compete.
And this is the most important fact of all: PL will be stuck with the big schools no matter what. Yes PL may be a slightly better fit for the Dakota. But they’re also the only school that could legitimately join the new Lake. If they don’t join, the new Lake disbands and gets placed in the Dakota along with who guessed it? Prior Lake. Think long term, PL is going to be stuck with the EP’s and CL whether they want to or not.
PL is a much better fit with the Dakota County Conference. I’m pretty sure the two Bloomington schools, Chan, Chaska, Farmington, Shakopee and Northfield are all between 1200-1700 students, so they won’t be twice as big as any of them. All of them are growing except for the Bloomington schools as well. All of those schools play AAAAA for football except for Northfield, which is the largest school for AAAA and Chan, which I don’t think has any seniors this year. Chan and Northfield will probably be in AAAAA within the next couple of years for football.
If the Dakota Conference gets 8-10 teams all south of the river, the mshsl will not place the CLC teams into that conference. Those schools in that area deserve to be in a conference together, and the schools along the 494 corridor should get in a conference together.
Eric, where else would the CLC + EP go? If the MSHSL didn’t place any of those teams in the NW Suburban now, why would they next year? Placing them in the Dakota pretty much reforms the original Lake. Whether we agree with it or not (I don’t), its apparently what the MSHSL wants to do. They certainly wouldn’t put them in the Missota.
That leaves the Dakota. With the AD saying they want to leave, PL is stuck with the big guys no matter what. That’s not my opinion, its whats 95% likely to happen.
Thor -
I think you nailed it. There’s 0% chance that if things fall as predicted that a 5 team Lake conference stays intact. And then the placement begins again…and MSHSL places the 5 teams back with the old Lake (new Dakota)…then repeat the whole thing again.
What seems to be happening is that the MSHSL is trying to force (silently) one or two other teams to come forward and joint the CL + EP group. Based on what you have presented PL seems to make sense. Despite what Percy says, I still believe that there are people in power pulling for MG and perhaps 1 other school to join also.
Dave
People may be pulling for Maple Grove to join the “Big 5″, but why would MG even remotely want to do that. They are perfectly happy in the NWSC.
Maple Grove may be considered a somewhat affluent area, but the high school is in a school district that includes Osseo and Park Center. Unlike Wayzata and Eden Prairie they do not have the luxury of having all district resources poured into one school, they must be divided among three. Because of this they are a better fit for the NWSC.
While the taxpayers and schoolboards in Eden Prairie and Wayzata are well within their rights to have one large high school instead of dividing, they should also not be surprised when no one wants to play against a school with an enrollment larger than most of the schools in the MIAC. To roughly quote a comment from Elk River’s A.D. (The Elk River School district recently added High Schools in Rogers and Zimmerman) “They (Wayzata) chose to have one big school instead of dividing, why should that be our problem”-Taken from the ER Star News.
That being said, I can imagine the same conversations taking place in the ’60s and ’70s when Robbinsdale, Bloomington and Edina were all booming districts. All of them chose to divide, but they also ended up closing high schools.
DAve-
Is the MSHSL “pulling” for or ‘pushing at’ another team to join. Your statement about 1 other team joining besides MG brings you back to the dilemna of an odd numbered league and trying to schedule non-con late in the season.
I don’t know about all of the sports, but is MG anywhere close to being consistently competitive in football, hockey and basketball w/ the CLC + EP
combo? I just don’t see it. Why leave their comfort zone in the NWSC and abandon their fellow district teams (Osseo and Park Center)?
I’ve got a potential solution. How about pulling or pushing Benilde-St Margaret into the “new Lake”. They’re private, their enrollment/recruiting territories are right in the same areas as the CL. Now that would be fun watching the games being played both on, and off, the field…
The MSHSL can’t be naive enough to think the Dakota schools and the CLC will really stay in the same conference, can they? Lets hope not. Hopefully they’re actually after what Wayzata Dave says: trying to get a school or two to join with the big guys. Just someone join, who cares who it is, whether it be PL, MG, Shakopee, or a private school. If at least one joins this mess is probably solved.
Somehow I don’t think that Benilde will be the one - after all their Senior class is a whooping 210 students.
Nice try Percy.
They came, they saw, they left… Based on the fact that the lake voted to bolt so quickly - I can guarantee you that public / parent input on this was NIL!
School boards take 9 months to decide to use the toilet… This was all decided months ago by the supers of these schools…
Now - Come ON MAPLE GROVE - MAN UP!
“Somehow I don’t think that Benilde will be the one - after all their Senior class is a whooping 210 students.
Nice try Percy.”
Both Cretin and Benilde have comparable enrollments and both field competitive sports programs because of the nature of the two school’s athletic cultures and their inherent ability to attract athletes. Rather than continuing to push MG to join, (something it will never do, time to end the pipe dream, Dave), this is where one potential solution lies. Another solution would be to merge Armstrong and Cooper (restoring “Robbinsdale” High??).
I would say the superintendents are by nature political animals and their quick decision generally reflects the feelings of the majority of their constituents in their respective districts, who have known this was coming for a long time. This was a good move for the Lake (and Prior Lake) to stand up to the League and the inherent inequities involved in going up against the super-district schools. They created a new conference that makes more geographic sense and has about the right number of teams in it.
Another long-term solution might be Chaska and/or Chanhassen moving back to the Lake, as eventually they will replace their enrollments and outgrow the Missota once again.
