Mitt Romney’s win in Michigan leaves the Republican contest all shook up — and that means that all the leading candidates have a genuine shot at winning the nomination in St. Paul.

Republicans seem to farther away from settling on a nominee than they did before the Iowa caucuses kicked things off. At least back then it was easy — wrong, as it turns out, but easy — to forget Mike Huckabee and to dismiss Sen. John McCain.

Even now, it’s tempting to discount Fred Thompson, who hasn’t managed anything better than third place so far. But then again, he was only one percentage point behind Romney in New Hampshire. And now the race heads South.

Even Rudy Giuliani’s chances appear to grow stronger with each passing election that fails to produce a clear front-runner.

What it all adds up to is this: anything seems possible, and moreso by the day.

Here’s a candidate-by-candidate assessment as we head for the next great mystery in South Carolina on Saturday.

Mitt Romney
A series of silver-medal finishes might actually be the ticket to winning the nomination this year, and now with a decisive win in Michigan, Romney has strengthened his position. Sure, he was born and raised there, but then again he’s been away for decades. And perhaps more important, he won or at least fared well with conservatives and religious voters — two groups that he’s had trouble persuading so far. It’s hard to say where his next win will come. But maybe he doesn’t need another one; maybe he just keeps collecting his silver medals all the way to the top step of the podium in St. Paul.

Sen. John McCain
No question, the Michigan loss was a big blow. He won the state in 2000, but didn’t come close this time, despite carrying the momentum out of New Hampshire. The glimmer of hope in the Michigan results is this: as badly as he lost, he nevertheless won handily among voters who said Iraq was the most important issue and among military veterans. And South Carolina has a larger percentage of veterans than does Michigan. On the downside, South Carolina is also more conservative than Michigan and McCain faltered there in 2000 when he was the victim of a below-the-radar smear campaign.

Mike Huckabee
He’s a southerner, and his appeal to evangelical voters — which jolted the Iowa caucuses — could very well carry the day on Saturday. After New Hampshire, Huckabee conceded Michigan and, as he said last night, planted his flag in South Carolina. On the downside, he’s not the only southerner on the ballot.

Fred Thompson
Could South Carolina be the state that revives the former senator from Tennessee? He’ll have to duke it out with Huckabee, but at least he’s back on more familiar ground. And with the race remaining incredibly fluid and with so many voters making up their minds at the last minute, who knows what chord he might strike, just as Romney did in the closing days in Michigan.

Rudy Giuliani
Giuliani’s national, Super Tuesday strategy is looking more and more plausible. Florida is coming up on Jan. 29, and he’s running neck-and-neck-and neck with McCain, Huckabee and Romney there. And he could win in big states like New York, New Jersey and California on Feb. 5. On the downside, as bsimon noted in a clever comment to an earlier post here, every time Giuliani focuses on a new state, his numbers there go down.

What do you think happens next? Are you ready to eliminate any of them from contention? How and where and when does this all get settled?

And finally, just to recap the race so far, here are the results for the top candidates in each state, with the winner in bold.

The Republicans
……………………….Huckabee……McCain…..Romney
Iowa…………………….34……………13………..25….
New Hampshire………11……………37………..32….
Michigan……………….16……………30………..39….

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 16th, 2008 at 12:37 am and is filed under Fred Thompson, John McCain, Main, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.