February 2008

Tonight’s Clinton-Obama debate

Tuesday, February 26th, 2008

Tonight could be the last time Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton debate.

The debate on MSNBC, which begins at 8 p.m. (CST), is the last one scheduled before next Tuesday’s primaries, which have the potential to knock Clinton out of the race.

NBC’s Brian Williams will moderate the event at Cleveland State University, and Tim Russert will join in the questioning.

If you don’t have cable, you can watch the debate on msnbc.com.

Yet more Pawlenty VP buzz….

Tuesday, February 26th, 2008

Well, that didn’t take long.

Just a few days after the most recent round of Pawlenty-could-be-McCain’s-veep, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza used the National Governor’s Association meeting to have a videotaped sit-down with four governors whose names are being bandied about as possible vice-presidential material.

One was our very own Tim Pawlenty. Of the guv, Cillizza writes, “Pawlenty — widely seen as the current leader in the McCain veepstakes — detailed his long relationship with the senator (the two have known each other for nearly two decades) and his loyalty during the darkest days of McCain’s campaign. But he offered little insight into his own prospects.”

Here’s the video:

For the entire blog post, you can go here.

TPaw Veep speculation, Chapter 6,433

Friday, February 22nd, 2008

The Beltway chorus of guessing who John McCain will pick as his running mate keeps swelling and Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s name keeps being sung at the top of the insiders’ lungs.

Most recently, the National Journal privately polled what it calls its “GOP power players” on who McCain would end up picking. Pawlenty led the pack, named by 15 percent of the 87 Republican bigwigs. Running second, with 11 percent, was former presidential hopeful Mitt Romney. They mentioned no fewer than 18 other possible VP picks.

Among the assessments of Pawlenty are the following:

“Pawlenty brings it all—regional balance, youth, looks, plus a policy
background that can appeal to the center. He’s also doing great
work on energy and environment issues, which would be a nice turf
poach for the GOP.”

“Solid conservative, anti-tax increases, good family, and keeps the

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Midwest in play for McCain.”

“It needs to be a governor who can help carry a state and help deal
with the age argument. The two lead candidates would be Crist and
Pawlenty. Crist has a Quayle-like ‘deer in the headlights’ quality about
him if he has to answer an unrehearsed question, leaving Pawlenty.”

That poll, published Friday, came a few hours after the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza’s politics blog ran its new line of what he calls the Veepstakes. His assessment of Pawlenty:

“The two-term Minnesota governor has to be considered the frontrunner at the moment to be McCain’s pick. He hails from the electorally important Midwest, is young enough to balance concerns about McCain’s age, and he stuck by the Arizona senator in the darkest days of the campaign. The criticism that Pawlenty is an unknown on the national stage may, in fact, be an argument in his favor — voters won’t bring any preconceived notions about him to the ticket. Never forget that one of the guiding principles in picking a VP is to find someone who is comfortable being seen but not heard.”

Icing on the speculation cake first came this week from the Politico, where Pawlenty was subject of an exceptionally flattering profile. As befits his continuing, studied, silence on the topic, Pawlenty declined to be interviewed for the piece.

Stay tuned. The talk is likely to only intensify.

“I am the only candidate who can … uh, never mind.”

Tuesday, February 19th, 2008

It’s hardly news in the world of politics that one-time rivals often become best friends forever once one of them beats the other one. Case in point: Rudy Giuliani’s fervet embrace of John McCain once Rudy’s Florida firewall strategy imploded and McCain was on his way to becoming the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.

Giuliani even hopped on the Straight Talk Express for some face-to-face schmoozing with the

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traveling press. At one point, according to a story in the current issue of The New Yorker, Giuliani made the following case for McCain:

“When I endorsed John, I pointed out that, as far as I can see, he’s the only candidate we have that can put virtually fifty states in play,” Giuliani said, pouring out some carefully worded frustrations about how his party has shrivelled in the Northeast. “That doesn’t mean he can win fifty states. Nobody ever wins fifty states. It means he can compete in fifty states. When he’s nominated, there’ll be an active campaign in New York, there’ll be an active campaign in New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan, Minnesota, California, Washington, Oregon. If somebody else is nominated, they’ll go back to the thirty-five-state strategy. This is very frustrating for Republicans in this part of the world. They haven’t had a Presidential campaign since probably ’84, maybe ’88 in some places. It’s also helped to deteriorate the Party.”

So? Well, it wasn’t that many weeks ago that Giuliani was repeatedly claiming that he was the only guy in the GOP who could credibly mount a 50-state campaign. But, hey times change.

Badger State smackdown (on the tube)

Friday, February 15th, 2008

As Wisconsin’s primary next Tuesday approaches, most of the action has taken place on the Democratic side (Mike Huckabee, trailing far behind John McCain in the polls, barnstormed the state for three days, hoping to fire up his base of conservatives and evangelicals). Barack Obama has been working the state nearly non-stop since Tuesday and Hillary Clinton arrives Saturday, planning to stump the state until primary day.

The intensity of the Democratic battle has shown up on Wisconsinites’ TV screens. Clinton, widely perceived as having lost momentum to Obama, has been itching to debate him and threw up an ad this week in which an announcer sneers that Obama would “prefer to give speeches than have to answer questions.”

Oh, yeah? countered Obama’s camp, coming up with an ad that accuses Clinton of “phony charges and false attacks.”

Perhaps predictably, it didn’t take long for some anonymous wiseguy to come up with a parody of Clinton’s ad.

Stay tuned.

Not your father’s GOP convention….

Friday, February 15th, 2008

Organizers of the Republican National Convention announced today that the Internet behemoth Google will be the “official innovation provider” of the big show that hits the Xcel Center in St. Paul on Sept. 1-4.

In a video posted both on YouTube (a Google subsidiary) and the convention’s official website, President and CEO Maria Cino said enlisting Google’s various tools will ensure that the four-day nominee coronation will be “the most high-tech savvy in history.” It wilk, she said, bring the convention a “wow factor.”

Details of the partnership with Google are available at the convention’s websute. It’s also been cross-posted over at YouTube.

Huckabee declared winner in Kansas

Saturday, February 9th, 2008

Mike Huckabee has been projected the winner of Saturday’s Kansas caucuses, according to Fox News and CNN.

Huckabee holds a commanding lead over Sen. John McCain — 62 percent to 22 percent, with 76 percent of precincts reporting. Ron Paul is third with 11 percent.

Today’s caucuses will award 36 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention in St. Paul.

Earlier this morning, Huckabee announced in a speech to a conservative organization that he planned to remain in the race.

“Am I quitting? Let’s get this settled right now. No, I am not,” he said.

Kansas was holding only Republican caucuses today. Democrats held their caucuses earlier this week, on Super Tuesday. Sen. Barack Obama won with 74 percent of the vote.

Three other states are voting today. Louisiana has a Democratic and Republican primary, Washington state has caucuses for both parties and Nebraska is holding Democratic caucuses.

Why Romney won

Wednesday, February 6th, 2008

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney owes much of his Minnesota victory to the peculiarities of the state’s caucus system, which rewards candidates who have a passionate, partisan following and punishes those who don’t.

Racking up a nearly 2-1 margin over Arizona Sen. John McCain, Romney ran well where it counted — in the Twin Cities and other populous areas. But he also benefited heavily from the kind of activist party voter who participates in the relatively arcane process of caucusing. And McCain, in turn, was hurt by the absence of more independent voters who would show up for a primary.

Unlike the Democratic caucus, the GOP contest is a kind of straw poll that is influential but not binding on party activists who later choose delegates. But it was a satisfying moment for Romney backers who needed good news.

When Romney’s victory became apparent tonight, his Minnesota organization sent out emails pointing out that he had defied pollsters who gave McCain a commanding lead in the state only a few days ago. But the recent Minnesota Public Radio poll surveyed people who identified themselves as Republicans, not likely caucus participants. The caucus crowd is a much smaller group, and its views are probably not representative of Republicans as a whole.

How small a group? Consider Scott County. Shortly before midnight, Romney was overpowering McCain 51 percent to 17 percent there with 80 percent of precincts reporting. It’s impressive until you learn that the percentage represents 779 and 257 people — about 2 percent of eligible voters in the county.

State GOP activist Annette Meeks and U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, D-Minnesota, both hailed above-average caucus turnout as a fine show of democracy. But above-average for a caucus may not count for much in the bigger scheme of things.

Not only did McCain lose big to Romney, but he was holding only a slim lead over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Minnesota last night. Caucus goers tend to be more passionate than voters in general, and Huckabee draws some of his most passionate support from evangelical Christians. He was beating Romney and McCain in northwestern Minnesota.

But while the caucus system provided a cozy forum for Romney’s party activists, it deprived McCain of more independent-minded Republicans — as well as actual independents — who would be more likely to vote for him in a primary, and apparently did vote for him in other states.

Minnesota isn’t alone in this phenomena. While McCain was the big winner of Super Tuesday in the nation, Romney won every contest tilted in favor of party loyalists, except West Virginia. Huckabee won that one.

Young people powered Obama’s win in Minnesota

Wednesday, February 6th, 2008

Sen. Barack Obama rode a wave of support in Minnesota’s college towns to his victory over Sen. Hillary Clinton in Minnesota’s Super Tuesday caucuses.

In Stearns and Winona counties, home to universities, Obama trounced Clinton, the Associated Press reported. The same went for urban counties that are home to the University of Minnesota and liberal arts colleges, including the Macalester College neighborhood in St. Paul.

But results were Obama-heavy all around the state.

By midnight the Illinois senator claimed 69 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 30 percent in the seven-county metro area. The central part of the state had Obama ahead 58 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent. In the northeast it was Obama at 62 percent to Clinton’s 36 percent. In the northwest it was Obama 61-37 percent. In southern Minnesota Obama was leading 62 to 36 percent.

Caucus goers said they were drawn to Obama’s message and character.

“I think his ideals fit a majority of America, and I think he’ll be a very strong leader,” Drew Glesne said at Macalester College in St. Paul. “He has great morals, great character, and I have high hopes for him.”

“What I saw tonight lifts my spirit and takes me back to when I first got turned on by politics,” Rep. Keith Ellison, D-Minneapolis, told an Obama celebration in Minneapolis tonight.

Tonight’s turnout is likely to eclipse previous records for both parties.

DFL Chairman Brian Melendez said turnout in his party may have topped six figures, well above the 75,000-80,000 turnout of 1968 and 1972. Republican Party chairman Ron Carey said the party’s turnout would be close to the record 58,000 Republicans in 1988.

But the night’s heavy turnout helps to highlight a problem, Mayor R.T. Rybak said.

“Having this many people is a good problem, but it’s still a problem,” he said. “It’s unfair to say that in this one-and-a-half hour period everybody should go, even if you’re working or are a student.”

He suggested having a primary election or caucusing on a weekend.

–Staff and Associated Press reports

Romney strength

Tuesday, February 5th, 2008

While Romney racked up big numbers in the Twin Cities, the range of support for him in the state was broader. In central Minnesota, he was winning by more than a 2-1 margin over McCain in Sherburne County with two-thirds of the precincts reporting. He had a nearly 3-1 margin over McCain in Isanti County.