Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney owes much of his Minnesota victory to the peculiarities of the state’s caucus system, which rewards candidates who have a passionate, partisan following and punishes those who don’t.

Racking up a nearly 2-1 margin over Arizona Sen. John McCain, Romney ran well where it counted — in the Twin Cities and other populous areas. But he also benefited heavily from the kind of activist party voter who participates in the relatively arcane process of caucusing. And McCain, in turn, was hurt by the absence of more independent voters who would show up for a primary.

Unlike the Democratic caucus, the GOP contest is a kind of straw poll that is influential but not binding on party activists who later choose delegates. But it was a satisfying moment for Romney backers who needed good news.

When Romney’s victory became apparent tonight, his Minnesota organization sent out emails pointing out that he had defied pollsters who gave McCain a commanding lead in the state only a few days ago. But the recent Minnesota Public Radio poll surveyed people who identified themselves as Republicans, not likely caucus participants. The caucus crowd is a much smaller group, and its views are probably not representative of Republicans as a whole.

How small a group? Consider Scott County. Shortly before midnight, Romney was overpowering McCain 51 percent to 17 percent there with 80 percent of precincts reporting. It’s impressive until you learn that the percentage represents 779 and 257 people — about 2 percent of eligible voters in the county.

State GOP activist Annette Meeks and U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, D-Minnesota, both hailed above-average caucus turnout as a fine show of democracy. But above-average for a caucus may not count for much in the bigger scheme of things.

Not only did McCain lose big to Romney, but he was holding only a slim lead over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Minnesota last night. Caucus goers tend to be more passionate than voters in general, and Huckabee draws some of his most passionate support from evangelical Christians. He was beating Romney and McCain in northwestern Minnesota.

But while the caucus system provided a cozy forum for Romney’s party activists, it deprived McCain of more independent-minded Republicans — as well as actual independents — who would be more likely to vote for him in a primary, and apparently did vote for him in other states.

Minnesota isn’t alone in this phenomena. While McCain was the big winner of Super Tuesday in the nation, Romney won every contest tilted in favor of party loyalists, except West Virginia. Huckabee won that one.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 6th, 2008 at 12:14 am and is filed under Main, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.