April 2008

Jimmy Carter’s take, on the election and the Mideast

Monday, April 28th, 2008

Former President Jimmy Carter is flogging his newest book, a memoir about his mother, Lillian, and so has taken to the phone lines to do a virtual book tour. The book, “A Remarkable Mother,” is being published in conjunction with Mother’s Day and, in his words, is intended to show “in those ancient times of the 1920s and ’30s, here was a woman who was staunch in her beliefs and led a full life.”

In a telephone interview, Carter also spoke of his mother’s enlightened racial attitudes at a jimmy.jpgtime when race relations in the South were anything but enlightened — which allowed the conversation to pivot to the current presidential campaign.

Carter said his mother would be “delighted” watching the Democratic presidential nominating campaign play out between the first plausible black candidate and the first plausible female candidate. “I don’t think she’d be concerned at all about the intensity between the two of them,” he said. “She never gave up a fight until it was over and I wouldn’t expect [she would expect either Obama or Clinton to do so.]”

Just for the record, Carter said he agrees with his mother — and doesn’t intend to tip his hand in the race (as a former president, he’s one of Georgia’s superdelegates) until after the final primaries on June 3.

He called the continuing brouhaha about the declarations of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright “completely superficial.” With his own long history of attending black churches, Carter said such rhetoric “is the kind of preaching I’ve seen constantly. We grew up that way, hearing preaching against the sin of racial discrimination.”

Although the thermonuclear attacks being lobbed by both the Clinton camp and the Obama camp have caused many Democrats to despair about the party’s prospects in November, Carter’s sanguine about the outcome. “It looks kind of dismal now,” he said, recalling his own successful race in 1976, when Republicans Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan tore each other to shreds. “Almost all the Republicans came back,” he said. “Parties always tend to come back together.”

Predictably, given the history of his post-presidential campaign, Carter is once again the center of controversy, this time for meeting the leaders of Hamas last week while on a visit to the Mideast. He has been criticized by the Bush Administration and representatives of the Israeli government, who regard Hamas as a terrorist organization (The Israeli ambassador to the U.S. went so far to call Carter “a bigot” with “bloody hands;” “I just ignore that kind of thing,” Carter said.”

“There’s nothing I need to apologize for,” Carter said. “It’s a mistake for Israel and the United States not to talk with Hamas … [t]hey won an election fair and square.” In considerably more detail, Carter defended his personal diplomacy Monday in a New York Times op-ed.

Bill Clinton’s political legacy, R.I.P?

Monday, April 28th, 2008

For quite some time now, there’s been a raging debate about whether Bill Clinton’s unscripted forays are helping or hurting his wife’s campaign. Over the weekend, a perceptible shift started, with several pieces accentuating the negative — hard.

A weekend piece in the Wall Street Journal described what it called the “BIllification” of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign. And while it described his stumping and talking as overall lending momentum to her campaign, it also recycled nuggets of the damage done:bill.jpg

His role has come at a cost — to morale among some campaign staff, relations inside the Democratic Party and with African-American leaders, and in the view of some, his own legacy. He has lost considerable credibility with many party leaders, who, as “superdelegates” to the party convention, will be crucial in determining who is the Democratic presidential nominee.

The New York Daily News, never a friend of the Clintons, weighed in with a piece that went so far as to suggest that his heart bypass surgery had wrought a change in his personality. It’s not-so-subtly headlined, “From Bubba to Flubba: Slew of gaffes makes pals wonder why Bill is losing it.”

Next up, Ryan Lizza in the New Yorker, detailing Bill’s it’s-all-about-me-and-my-legacy style of campaigning, before cutting to the chase:

When Hillary Clinton’s Presidential campaign was launched, in January, 2007, her supporters feared that Bill would overshadow her … Now the constant fear is that he will embarrass her. When he makes news, it is rarely a good day for his spouse. Whether he was publicly comparing Barack Obama’s primary victory in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson’s campaigns in the eighties or privately, and apoplectically, complaining that Bill Richardson broke his word by endorsing Obama, every story has seemed to reinforce an image of Clinton as a sort of ill-tempered coot driven a little mad by Obama’s success.

Finally, Bloomberg’s Al Hunt all but buried him, calling him the “biggest loser of the campaign:”

The most talented and resilient politician of this generation has damaged his standing with gaffes, political miscalculations and a series of paranoiac, volcanic eruptions.

A common question these days among political heavyweights — including longtime Clinton devotees — is this: How can a guy this smart act so dumb?

Granted, this piling-up of the convention can do a 180-degree flip in an eyeblink, but the convergence of such a chorus is striking.

Update: The drumbeat is continuing. The New York Times has now weighed in. So has Newsweek, calling Clinton “the most tragic figure of the 2008 campaign.”

He’s baaack…….

Friday, April 25th, 2008

Courtesy of the North Carolina Republican Party, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s diatribes are back at center stage in an ad that (coincidentally?) is running in the run-up to the North Carolina primary on May 6.

Barack Obama’s supporters are, not surprisingly, crying foul. John McCain has denounced it, washing his hands of any responsibility for it. But it’s safe to say this won’t be the last time Obama and Wright are lashed together.

Take a look.

Visualizing the Clinton-Obama race

Thursday, April 24th, 2008

A couple of images have been floating around the web that give striking portraits of how the battle between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama has been playing out across the nation.
First, there’s a geographic rendering:
countiesqc0.gif

Next, what’s called an “decision tree” that shows how counties nationwide have been breaking for the candidates:
decision.jpg

Not breaking news exactly, but worth chewing over.

Introducing Mr. Super(delegate)

Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008

A fairly new website is intriguing for anyone following the byzantine nominating process the Democrats are living through. It’s mrsuper.org, self-described as, “an undeclared superdelegate debunks myths, offers insight and answers questions about the 2008 Democratic nomination process for President of the United States.”

Reputable journalists have vetted the guy (without, at his request, outing his identity), and the posts seem both credible and carry some insight. It’s worth checking out here.

A prebuttal from the Obama camp — and a rebuttal from Clinton’s

Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008

As Pennsylvanians finally go to the polls, the name of the game today for the Clinton and barackhill.jpg Obama campaigns is managing expectations and cranking up the spin machine. Both sides have become adept at it, but for this primary, neither side is bothering to even wait for the polls to close.

Over the lunch hour, an e-mail went out from headquarters in Chicago, predicting a big win for Hillary Rodham Clinton — along with an elaborate explanation of why it won’t matter.

Some excerpts:

With all eyes on today’s contest, one thing is clear: Pennsylvania is considered a state tailor-made for Hillary Clinton, and by rights she should win big. She has family roots in the state, she has the support of the Democratic establishment-including Governor Rendell’s extensive
network-and former President Clinton is fondly remembered.

Clinton has been leading by large margins in Pennsylvania. In the weeks leading up to the primary, she led by as much as 25 points. They were so confident that their own Pennsylvania spokesman said Clinton would be “unbeatable” in Pennsylvania-regardless of spending by her opponent.

There has been much speculation about what each campaign needs coming out of tonight. The facts, however, are simple.

Behind in delegates and sporting a 14-30 primary record (not good enough even to make the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference), the Clinton campaign needs a blowout victory in Pennsylvania to get any closer to winning the nomination. Even President Clinton said that only a “big, big victory” will give her the boost she needs.

Tonight’s outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary. Fully three quarters of the remaining delegates will be selected in states other than Pennsylvania. While there are 158 delegates at stake in today’s primary, there are 157 up for grabs in the
Indiana and North Carolina primaries two weeks from today. We expect that by tomorrow morning, the overall structure of the race will remain unchanged-except for the fact that there will be 158 delegates off the table.

Two hours later came Clinton campaign’s rebuttal to Obama’s prebuttal. More excerpts:

The Obama campaign is attempting to pre-spin the results from tonight’s Pennsylvania primary by suggesting that Sen. Clinton should - and will - win.

But after the Obama campaign’s “go-for-broke” Pennsylvania strategy, after their avalanche of negative ads, negative mailers and negative attacks against Sen. Clinton, after their record-breaking spending in the state, a fundamental question must be asked: Why shouldn’t Sen. Obama win?

Sen. Obama’s supporters - and many pundits - have argued that the delegate “math” makes him the prohibitive frontrunner. They have argued that Sen. Clinton’s chances are slim to none. So if he’s already the frontrunner, if he’s had six weeks of unlimited resources to get his message out, shouldn’t he be the one expected to win tonight? If not, why not?

As the phrase goes, watch what they do not what they say.

There’s a reason Sen. Obama and his campaign have ratcheted up their year-long assault on Sen. Clinton’s character and ended the Pennsylvania campaign with a flurry of harsh negative attacks. It’s because they know that a loss in Pennsylvania will raise troubling questions about his candidacy and his ability to take on John McCain in the general election. And it’s because they know that the race is neck and neck and tonight’s contest is a measure of where the campaign stands.

It’s not exactly, “Hillary tells Reagan Democrats to drop dead,” but…

Wednesday, April 16th, 2008

With Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign continuing to batter Barack Obama over what’s being called “bittergate,” his campaign fired back today with an account of her less-than-charitable assessment of working-class voters. They did so by picking up a Huffington Post piece that recounts a long-ago Camp David meeting where the Clintons were trying to come to terms with the loss of the U.S. House to the GOP.

It’s 3 a.m. — AGAIN

Thursday, April 3rd, 2008

That darned phone in the White House keeps ringing off the hook.

Hillary Rodham Clinton released a new ad Wednesday that reprises her middle-of-the-night-phone-call-threatening-Armageddon, casting the crisis in economic terms. Unlike the original, which took pains to paint a bullseye on Barack Obama for his lack of experience, this one takes aim at John McCain as someone who do nothing to help struggling American families.

Fair enough. But McCain’s folks were quick enough on their feet to one-up Clinton within a few hours, cribbing her own video with an Internet ad (cheap, but guaranteed free media coverage) that blasted both her and Obama as typical Democrats who only want to raise taxes to fight crises.

Nothing — not yet, at least — from Obama on 3 a.m. phone calls.