In the absence of anything resembling real news (much less fresh facts) about John McCain’s decision about a running mate, here’s some fresh entrail-reading, courtesy of the Rasmussen Reports polling firm.

In what amounts to little more than a national name-recognition pop quiz of the 1,000 likely voters the company surveyed, it turns out that Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s north of zero, but just barely.

As Rasmussen puts it:

The names most frequently in circulation these days are former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who challenged McCain for the GOP presidential nomination, and two sitting governors, Charlie Crist of Florida and Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota.

But a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that the two possible Republican running mates with the highest favorable ratings among voters – Mike Huckabee and Joseph Lieberman — are not even on most of the short lists currently being discussed.

What the numbers also suggest, given the high percentages of “not sure” responses, is that many voters are not even aware of most of the possible vice presidential candidates. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters, for example, were unsure what their view of Pawlenty is; 47% say the same of Crist.

(…snip)

In the new survey, Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, rates highest, with nearly half of voters (47%) saying they view him at least somewhat favorably. Fifteen percent (15%) rate their opinion of him as Very Favorable. Huckabee is seen at least somewhat unfavorably by 39%. Huckabee, like Romney, ran against McCain in the spring GOP primaries.

Lieberman, a sitting “independent” Democratic senator who was Al Gore’s running mate in 2000, is seen at least somewhat favorably by 46%, with 10% rating their view of him Very Favorable. Again, 39% have at least a somewhat unfavorable view of Lieberman.

But all is not lost for the guv’s prospects. A futures market operated separately by Rasmussen finds that he’s still in the thick of things: “On Monday morning, Pawlenty is doing better in the Rasmussen Markets and is given a 34.9% chance of being McCain’s choice. But Romney is still slightly ahead at 36.5% and Crist and Palin tied for third with 13%.”

It’s either an amazing coincidence, or the talking points have been going out to some of the presumptive short-listers being considered by John McCain as his vice-presidential running mate.

Over the weekend, Rob Portman, a former member of Congress from Ohio, said flatly of his prospects, “I don’t expect to be asked, honestly.”

Back on June 18, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, offered his own version of the demurral: “The fact is, I haven’t been asked, and I don’t expect to be asked.”

And Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, asked about his vice-presidential prospects in May, offered up “Let me be clear — I do not think the senator is going to ask.”

Beating all three to the punch was former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who made many of the initial short lists, but whose name has since faded. Back in April, after he had dropped his presidential bid, Huckabee called the vice presidential position a job that no one could refuse but also one he does not expect to be offered.

Perhaps notably (or not), Google and Nexis searches don’t turn up any such modest statements by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who remains fully in the mix of vice-presidential speculation. In fact, one report published Monday placed Romney at the top of McCain’s list.
The nutgraf:

“Romney as favorite” is the hot buzz in Republican circles, and top party advisers said the case is compelling.

Meanwhile, Pawlenty’s prospects simultaneously took a whack in the New York Observer, concluding that Pawlenty wouldn’t be all that much help to the Republican ticket.

The folks at SurveyUSA continue to roll out state-by-state test heats, with possible vice-presidential running mates grafted onto John McCain and Barack Obama (see the 5/20 post below for a longer expplanation).

For champions of a Tim Pawlenty pick by McCain, the short version is this: Bad news, governor.

In Virginia, where Obama runs 7 percentage points ahead of McCain without running mates, Pawlenty drags the GOP ticket to within a single point. In Ohio, his strongest showing is a 5-point loss — and he turns out the worst performance by far, with McCain-Pawlenty losing to Obama and John Edwards by 18 percentage points.

Here’s the link for complete results.

Today’s Tim Pawlenty vice-presidential update:

One of the more creative stabs at vice-presidential progosticating has been running this month on the website of CQ (formerly known as Congressional Quarterly). The magazine set up the potential Republican vice-presidential field much like the NCAA sets its basketball tournament every year.

Pawlenty, invariably mentioned as being on John McCain’s short list, was one of the 32 candidates at the starting gate at the beginning of May. Based on readers’ votes, he handily whomped former Sen. Phil Gramm before handily dispatching former Secretary of State Colin Powell and Sen. Kay Baily Hutchison. Alas, he was upended in the voting that ended Monday by onetime presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, 55 percent to 44 percent.

The final showdown will pit Huckabee against Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a GOP up-and-comer with virtually no national profile.

There’s still time to vote at the CQ page, which shows the entire tournament.

Another day, another dribble of idle speculation about Tim Pawlenty’s political future. (OK, the Strib’s a guilty as anyone, including questions about his vice-presidential prospects in the most recent Minnesota Poll.)

Anyway, the polling firm SurveyUSA has cooked up a statistical parlor game by running nationwide test heats between John McCain and Barack Obama, while grafting hypothetical running mates onto their backs.

This week, the company released its poll of Pennsylvanians (residents of a potential battleground state in November). The results were all over the map, with Obama winning 13 of the matchups (including the one that didn’t include running mates), McCain winning four.

For Pawlenty-watchers, the most notable takeaway was the fact that he didn’t exactly set the GOP ticket on fire. McCain-Pawlenty lost all four of its matchups against Obama and a running mate. Their best performance came against Obama and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, losing by 3 percentage points. Their worst: Obama and former Sen. John Edwards thumped them by an eye-popping 17 points (and that was by far the worst Republican performance in any of the test heats).

Of course, it’s not likely McCain and his brain trust are relying on such polls to make their veep pick, but if you’re a Pawlenty partisan, that has to sting a bit.

For the full poll results, click here.

Mike Huckabee has been projected the winner of Saturday’s Kansas caucuses, according to Fox News and CNN.

Huckabee holds a commanding lead over Sen. John McCain — 62 percent to 22 percent, with 76 percent of precincts reporting. Ron Paul is third with 11 percent.

Today’s caucuses will award 36 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention in St. Paul.

Earlier this morning, Huckabee announced in a speech to a conservative organization that he planned to remain in the race.

“Am I quitting? Let’s get this settled right now. No, I am not,” he said.

Kansas was holding only Republican caucuses today. Democrats held their caucuses earlier this week, on Super Tuesday. Sen. Barack Obama won with 74 percent of the vote.

Three other states are voting today. Louisiana has a Democratic and Republican primary, Washington state has caucuses for both parties and Nebraska is holding Democratic caucuses.

A new poll of registered voters in Minnesota 10 months before the general election Democratic presidential candidates handily beating their Republican counterparts — with the notable exception of John McCain.

The poll, conducted by this week by SurveyUSA for three of the state’s TV stations, posed head-to-head matchups of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama against McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani or Mike Huckabee.

A few grains of salt: Much like national polls at this stage in the campaign, this poll can be as much about name recognition as about the state of the race if the election were held today. Also, with a relatively small sample size of 550 poll respondents, the survey has a whopping margin of error of 4.3 percentage points. That said, here are the matchups:

McCain, 49%
Clinton, 45%
Undecided, 6%

McCain, 49%
Obama, 42%
Undecided, 9%

Clinton, 50%
Romney, 40%
Undecided, 9%

Obama, 55%
Romney, 36%
Undecided, 10%

Clinton, 51%
Giuliani, 40%
Undecided, 9%

Obama, 52%
Giuliani, 36%
Undecided, 11%

Clinton, 50%
Huckabee, 42%
Undecided, 8%

Obama, 49%
Huckabee, 42%
Undecided, 10%

Full poll results and methodology are available here.

Mitt Romney’s win in Michigan leaves the Republican contest all shook up — and that means that all the leading candidates have a genuine shot at winning the nomination in St. Paul.

Republicans seem to farther away from settling on a nominee than they did before the Iowa caucuses kicked things off. At least back then it was easy — wrong, as it turns out, but easy — to forget Mike Huckabee and to dismiss Sen. John McCain.

Even now, it’s tempting to discount Fred Thompson, who hasn’t managed anything better than third place so far. But then again, he was only one percentage point behind Romney in New Hampshire. And now the race heads South.

Even Rudy Giuliani’s chances appear to grow stronger with each passing election that fails to produce a clear front-runner.

What it all adds up to is this: anything seems possible, and moreso by the day.

Here’s a candidate-by-candidate assessment as we head for the next great mystery in South Carolina on Saturday.

Mitt Romney
A series of silver-medal finishes might actually be the ticket to winning the nomination this year, and now with a decisive win in Michigan, Romney has strengthened his position. Sure, he was born and raised there, but then again he’s been away for decades. And perhaps more important, he won or at least fared well with conservatives and religious voters — two groups that he’s had trouble persuading so far. It’s hard to say where his next win will come. But maybe he doesn’t need another one; maybe he just keeps collecting his silver medals all the way to the top step of the podium in St. Paul.

Sen. John McCain
No question, the Michigan loss was a big blow. He won the state in 2000, but didn’t come close this time, despite carrying the momentum out of New Hampshire. The glimmer of hope in the Michigan results is this: as badly as he lost, he nevertheless won handily among voters who said Iraq was the most important issue and among military veterans. And South Carolina has a larger percentage of veterans than does Michigan. On the downside, South Carolina is also more conservative than Michigan and McCain faltered there in 2000 when he was the victim of a below-the-radar smear campaign.

Mike Huckabee
He’s a southerner, and his appeal to evangelical voters — which jolted the Iowa caucuses — could very well carry the day on Saturday. After New Hampshire, Huckabee conceded Michigan and, as he said last night, planted his flag in South Carolina. On the downside, he’s not the only southerner on the ballot.

Fred Thompson
Could South Carolina be the state that revives the former senator from Tennessee? He’ll have to duke it out with Huckabee, but at least he’s back on more familiar ground. And with the race remaining incredibly fluid and with so many voters making up their minds at the last minute, who knows what chord he might strike, just as Romney did in the closing days in Michigan.

Rudy Giuliani
Giuliani’s national, Super Tuesday strategy is looking more and more plausible. Florida is coming up on Jan. 29, and he’s running neck-and-neck-and neck with McCain, Huckabee and Romney there. And he could win in big states like New York, New Jersey and California on Feb. 5. On the downside, as bsimon noted in a clever comment to an earlier post here, every time Giuliani focuses on a new state, his numbers there go down.

What do you think happens next? Are you ready to eliminate any of them from contention? How and where and when does this all get settled?

And finally, just to recap the race so far, here are the results for the top candidates in each state, with the winner in bold.

The Republicans
……………………….Huckabee……McCain…..Romney
Iowa…………………….34……………13………..25….
New Hampshire………11……………37………..32….
Michigan……………….16……………30………..39….

The morning after his loss in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney returned home and kicked off an intensive and highly successful week of campaigning in Michigan.

Here’s what he did right, and why he won.

He reestablished his personal connections to the state, he won the conservative vote, he held his own among religious voters, and he spoke more convincingly and with more optimism to the economic fears of Michigan voters.

Here are the key findings of the exit poll, as reported by AP and the TV networks, which help explain Romney’s victory.

Nearly half the voters in the Republican primary said that they made up their mind about who to vote for only in the last week, and Romney won handily among that group, especially among those who made their decision in the last three days.

Also, 42 percent of the voters considered Romney’s ties to the state important, and nearly 60 percent of those voters backed him.

Romney has struggled to persuade conservatives that he shares their values and that they can count on him, but not in Michigan. Conservatives accounted for 56 percent of the Republican voters, and Romney won 41 percent of their vote, compared with 23 percent for McCain.

Likewise, Romney fared well among religious voters. While Mike Huckabee swept to victory in Iowa on the strength of the evangelical vote — and he won the most fervent religious vote in Michigan — Romney prevailed among the 54 percent of voters who said the religious beliefs of a candidate mattered a great deal or somewhat.

Finally, Romney tapped into the most important issue in the race — the economy. Fully 55 percent of voters said that was the top issue facing the country — and Romney won 42 percent of those voters, compared with just 29 percent for McCain.

We’ll learn the answer to that question tonight, after the last voters cast their ballots and head out into the freezing temperatures and snow drifts.

The wintry weather across the state adds another complicating factor to today’s GOP Michigan Primary.

The Republican contest already faced the possibility of Democratic input that could skew the results. When Michigan decided to move up its primary date into January, the national parties meted out punishment. The Democratic Party was harsher, striping the state of all delegates to the national convention. In response, Barack Obama and John Edwards removed their names from the ballot, leaving Hillary Rodham Clinton with an easy win — but a meaningless one.

The Republican Party only took away half the GOP delegates, leaving 30 delegates to fight over. Unlike the Democratic candidates, the Republicans have a real battle going on in the state, with Sen. John McCain and Mitt Romney gaining the top two spots in most polls, and Mike Huckabee close behind them.

And with voters allowed to choose which party’s primary they want to vote in — without being registered in that party — it opens the possibility of Democrats voting in the GOP primary — either for their favorite Republican…or to create mischief.

Now, with the cold and snowfall of as much as 6 inches in some places, who calls it a day and stays home, and who slogs to the polls? Do Democrats who otherwise would have voted in the GOP Primary decide it’s not worth the bother? Do Huckabee’s evangelical voters turn out in full force? Could there be an even bigger surprise in store — meaning a Ron Paul victory?