Ramon Ortiz: In all seriousness
Posted on January 20th, 2007 – 9:06 AMBy Michael Rand
When the news broke of Ortiz signing a one-year deal with the Twins for $3.1 million, we went for the humor angle. With a day to digest things, we’d like to take a run at some serious pros and cons:
Pros:
*$3.1 million is a relative bargain these days. As Diddy pointed out on a previous thread, Ortiz has a career ERA of 4.85. Gil Meche has a career ERA of 4.65. Ortiz got $3.1 mil; Meche got five years, $55 million from the Royals. Both pitchers are flawed; Ortiz’s flaws come considerably cheaper.
*For some reason, Ortiz’s best seasons have come in the American League. With Anaheim in 2001-2003, he was a combined 44-33 with a respectable ERA in the mid-fours. The past two years (one each in Cincy and Washington), he was 20-27 with a combined ERA in the mid-fives. And his best overall year was 2002 — 15-9, 3.77 ERA for Anaheim, the year the Angels won it all. Put him on a good team, which the Twins hope they are, and perhaps he’s a better pitcher.
*He eats innings: Despite some struggles in recent years, he’s thrown at least 170 innings in five of his past six seasons. He’ll turn 34 in May, which is hardly ancient for a pitcher. If he can come close to duplicating his Angels’ numbers, he can be a functional back end of the rotation guy.
Cons:
*The Twins have a lot of No. 4 and No. 5 starter candidates. They also have a clear ace. What this says is aside from Johan Santana, Minnesota still doesn’t have any starting pitcher you completely trust. Not Boof yet. Not Silva after last year. Not any of the other young guys, no matter how much potential they have. Not Ortiz and Ponson, veterans the Twins are hoping to revive. The Twins winged it in this situation last year after Liriano and Radke were injured, but it’s a dangerous way to live. So from that standpoint, the Ortiz signing just adds one more candidate to the mix.
*With the exception of 2002, Ortiz has allowed more hits than innings pitched in the past six seasons. Unlike Radke or (good) Silva, he doesn’t make up for it with pinpoint control, having allowed more than 3 walks per 9 innings over the course of his career. That’s a lot of baserunners, meaning he will likely tend to skate a fine line in a lot of games.
Overall:
A pretty good signing given the market and the Twins’ circumstances. It’s only one year; if it works, they can could try to extend him; if it doesn’t, they aim to get Liriano back in 2008. And, don’t forget: He’s making $1.1 million less than Kyle Lohse. Which one would you rather have?
51 Responses to "Ramon Ortiz: In all seriousness"
Here’s the problem: As you mention, Ortiz is probably at best a #3 starter, and has pretty much the same upsides and downsides as Carlos Silva. (”He pitches a lot of innings, and is a slight improvement on forfeiting every fifth day.”)
Why are the Twins paying $3.1M for something that they can do with some combination of guys that are already on the roster?
The mere mention of Lohse’s name nearly made me vomit. I ate bacon this morning so I better not vomit as bacon is good. Lohse is bad.
Jon, that’s a valid point, but it seems $3.1 million is a reasonable gamble on a pitcher to who will at least, in the eyes of Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson, take some of the pressure off of the youngsters. If this was two years at that money, it would harder to like. But the Twins are all about risk/reward (something they learned the hard way with Joe Mays), and this is another low-risk move that could pay off.
RandBall, fair enough - I agree it’s nice to be able to bring guys along without the added pressure of having to be a top-of-the-rotation guy.
But as you said yesterday, the rotation for next year is shaping up to be Santana, Ponson, Boof, Silva, and Ortiz. Which puts Matt Garza, Glen Perkins, and Scott Baker all out in Rochester.
Now, none of those three had particularly great seasons last year, and of course they’ll be insurance in case any of the above can’t find the strike zone with a map. But I’m not sure I see the justification for spending $3.1M instead of pitching one of those three, just because Ortiz is a “veteran” and therefore trustworthy.
Here are the baseball prospectus PECOTA ERA projections for each of the Twins rotation hopefuls. I guess TR feels what he learned from running Batista and Castro out there last year doesn’t apply to pitchers.
Santana 2.94
Bonser 4.51
Silva 4.90
Garza 4.53
Slowey 4.02
Perkins 5.02
Baker 4.67
Ponson 5.26
Ortiz 5.38
Sean, good stuff. But you can’t put a price, or a projection, on the comfort level of a manager and a pitching coach. If Ortiz is at least decent and makes it so the Twins aren’t relying on too many kids, it will be worthwhile.
Finally, Slowely’s name has come up. I’d rather give Slowely a chance than Pig Unit or Ortiz.
Terry Ryan has publically stated that he feels Santana, Silva and Boof will be in the rotation. He never said anything about Ponson. Frankly, I don’t think he will make it out of Spring training. I think the Twins want Garza to get more seasoning in AAA so that leaves Baker and Perkins riding the Red Eye between MSP and Rochester with Ortiz there as starter #4. Before last year, Silva had two solid seasons for the Twins and I think it took him a while to regain his pitching form after elbow surgery.
I agree with Randball re: projections. All they are is an assumption of what will happen and we all know about assumptions. They make an ass out of you and mptions.
Elbow surgery? Silva never had elbow surgery. Try minor knee surgery that shouldn’t have made any difference last year. Actually, Silva threw BETTER with a bum knee than with a good one.
Paging Tonya Harding and her white trash friends…please take Silva’s knee out soon so he can pitch like 2005 again 
Here’s my guess at the Twins rotation out of ST. And I’ll get a better look for myself when I’m down there.
Cytana
Silva
Boof
Ortiz
Garza
Pig Unit doesn’t make it out of ST. Perkins makes the trip north with the team as an extra lefty in the BP and an emergency 6th starter if someone faulters or gets injured. Baker will start the year in AAA.
Other notable rookies that could make starts for the Twins next year. Kevin Slowely, Jason Miller, JD Durbin, Simonitisch(SP), Pete Munro and others. The list goes on and on.
I like the idea of Garza and Baker starting in Rochester on opening day. Perkins can be the second lefty in the bullpen. No pressure on any of them. Once we get into May, you have your pick as to who you want to move into the rotation. That doesn’t mean you have to blow $3 million on Ortiz. You can start Guerrier as a No. 4 in April. Ponson as a No. 5. Spend the money to keep the middle of the order and Santana locked up for years to come.
TR has already publicly stated that Guerrier is not an option as a starter anymore. They like him in the BP role that he’s been in.
Blah. Too early for baseball. I realize that is ambiguous concerning post time and the fact that it’s January, but lets wait til March fellas, eh?
Blah?
Have fun cheering for the Wolves or Wild. I, for one, am looking forward to the baseball season.
I, for one, would rather see Garza or Perkins in the rotation rather than Sidney Pontoon (though Pig Unit is very applicable). I know both are young and pretty much unproven at the MLB level but ‘07 looks like a transition year in the rotation with the exits of Radke and Liriano. We can’t expect Johan to carry this staff again and Silva had better get back to his 2005 level.
For God’s sake, people, really! I didn’t want to do this but, dammit, if the 5 slot is going to go 12-12 or 13-11, or 8-12 anyway, than Garza and Perkins are better fit for that slot, because at least they get some experience. Ponson will probably sit in the 3 or 4 slot until he’s released or traded, same for Silva. Now until we trade away Silva for a decent young 3B power player and a prospect, no more baseball. I mean even February, please, wait until pitchers and catchers report. Damn.
I think the Twins are making a specific effort to put Matt Garza in a situation where he has to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. Which is good.
Baseball America, the leader in evaluation of young baseball talent says “Garza’s ceiling is all that’s in question, and calling him a No. 2 starter behind Johan Santana almost seems conservative.”
I think by the end June Garza will have established himself as reliable #2 to slot in behind Johan. However he may break down a little once he approaches 180 innings or so. But I think Gardy and Rick Andersen will handle him correctly.
I think La Velle is wrong in speculating that Ponson will make the rotation. He singed a minor league deal and can be sent to Rochester.
The Dark Horse to make this rotation is JD Durbin, who is out of options. Even if he doesn’t make the rotation I bet he is chosen over Guerrier for the final bullpen spot.
Good point Michael. Garza should pitch in the big show. He’ll take some lumps but everybody does at this stage and why not get that experience now? I think Garza is here to stay, and pitch well overall. Silva and Ortiz can hold down 2 more spots and then the other youngsters can battle for the 5th, and even share it as the season progresses. I agree that Ponson is just there to provide competition. If he pitches well it’s a pleasant surprise.
By the way, Enzy, get over it. If you don’t want to talk baseball fine. Some people do. And oh, thank god Gaborik is back.
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