They probably didn’t need fancy machines for McLovins
Posted on December 6th, 2007 – 11:37 AMBy Michael Rand
One of our favorite staples of ESPN is when one of their number crunchers spends a bunch of time on a hypothetical question, then arrives at conclusions that a four-year-old who eats paste could have just as easily made. Case in point: John Hollinger’s NBA playoff odds, posted recently and explained thusly:
Hollinger’s NBA Playoff Odds are based on the Hollinger Power Rankings, designed by ESPN.com’s John Hollinger. The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team’s performance in the season so far. Based on those rankings, each day the computer plays out the remainder of the season 5,000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes. The results reveal the most likely win-loss record for each team — and how likely it is for each team to make the playoffs, win the NBA title, win the lottery, and so on.
Based on this supercomputer wizardry, Hollinger has concluded that your Timberwolves — known somewhat affectionately here as the McLovins — have a … wait for it … 0.0 percent chance of making the playoffs this year. Brilliant! He pegs them for 19 wins, which also sounds just about right. But wait, there’s more: We love the “worst-case scenario” by which the McLovins would win a whopping 8 games (thus breaking the NBA record for futility).
Questions:
1) Can they break the record?
2) Do you want them to do it?
3) How much time do you think Hollinger spent to create a formula that tells you the exact same thing you see with your eyes?
4) Does 0.0 percent sound too high?
13 Responses to "They probably didn’t need fancy machines for McLovins"
1) No, the McLuvins won’t break the record. ATL made a run at the record in 04-05 and still ended up winning 13 games. The Wolves are better than that team [coincidentally, that team’s leading scorer? None other than our own ‘Toine Walker].
2) What sort of weirdo wants documented proof that their team was the worst team in the history of bad teams?
3) At least 43 hours of human time.
4) 0.0% sounds about right. No need to involve integers.
McLovings will not break the record. They will string together a few and actually hit 17 games now. I had them pegged higher originally, but Foye is out longer than expected.
I think he put it together while getting together with Ricky Williams for some “brownies”
I dont hope they break the record, as long as they can get first pick and choose Michael Beasley, Ill be happy.
1. Not a chance unless Big Al and “Shoddy”(Have I mentioned I hate this nickname) don’t play the rest of the season. We do play Seattle, what 4 times.
2. I would like them to win 2 more than the record.
3. 5 minutes is too much time.
4. All the Twolves need to do to make the playoffs is get KG back, then trade for Kobe, Lebron, and AI and they will be set. They will surely bounce back and make the playoffs.
Yeah, they can’t break the record. It’s not like they’re talentless - they’re just a perfect storm of young, inexperienced, and injured right now. I think they’ll probably break 20 wins.
The thing I’m worried about, Are the Heat going to make the playoffs?
1.) It’s not likely, but they’re going to be a lot closer to it than originally imagined.
2.) In a perverse way, I would kind of like to see them do it, just to make Kevin McHale’s humiliation complete. At least it would be some sort of accomplishment.
3.) Well, sure you don’t need any fancy-dancy formula to tell you that the McLovins have no chance to make the playoffs. But you do need some fancy-dancy formula to tell Bobcats fans that they have a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. That’s got to be worth as much time as ESPN is willing to pay for, say about 974 hours or so.
4.) 0.0% is close enough for our purposes.
1) If people stay off the DL, and Foye gets healthy, I would highly doubt it. I think when Foye comes back, they may even when a couple in a row at some point.
2) I think the people of Minnesota have suffered enough, thank you.
3) It’s one of those signs that the World Wide Leader thinks it’s a slow news day/week/month/existence.
4) I’m sure MP109 would give his middle nut to keep it from being in the negatives.
1) If Marco keeps nailing super models, there is no way they break the record.
2) No, but if they don’t, you know we won’t get the first pick…it’s karma.
3) More time than it should have, but less time it should have taken him. The guy is an idiot.
4) It does sound too high, but can you have a negative percentage? Obviously you didn’t take college algebra 3 times at Mankato State like I did.
What Jon said.
Hey Joker, did your teach teach you abuot kubie woot?
1) Nah, they won’t do it, but at this pace, it’ll be close.
2) I would LOVE if it happened! As Seth would say in Superbad, “We could be that mistake!” This may sound strange coming from a huge Wolves fan, but Glen Taylor needs to take the stick out of his butt (or find the blackmail pictures) and fire McHale already!
3) If it took longer than 4.39 seconds, even Bill Walton could do better.
4) Maybe if we trade-off half-seasons between Wittman and D-Case (who still shouldn’t have been fired!), we can make the playoffs come 2020. Until then, yeah, 0.0% is far too high.
You wanna see sports number crunching at it’s best and brightest ?
Go to …
http://msn.foxsports.com/odds?sportName=NFL ..the odds site for all upcoming NFL games. Amazing ! Every week I go there, and go I do, I think about the old men and new machines that go into those incredibly arcane forecasts. It used to be that a simple over and under was enough. No more. Money talks, and Big money talks the loudest..
They’ll not break the record by only one game. Then everyone will be happy. All of us. Will be very very happy.
