Monday (solid economics) edition: Wha’ Happened?
Posted on December 17th, 2007 – 9:02 AMBy Michael Rand
Brian Westbrook made one of the smartest football plays we can remember seeing in a long time yesterday. In the process, he likely had an impact on millions of dollars, and it has nothing to do with betting lines or bonuses. Westbrook, in case you missed it, had a clear path to the end zone on a long run just before the two-minute warning against the Cowboys. But with the Eagles leading 10-6 and Dallas out of time outs, Westbrook deliberately went down at the 1-yard line. The Eagles simply knelt down three times after the two-minute warning and won the game. Had Westbrook scored, as strange as it sounds, Dallas would have had at least a fraction of a chance to score quickly, convert an on-side kick, and score again — extremely unlikely, but more likely than a veteran QB somehow dropping one of three snaps. Now, to the game within the game: fantasy football. As of last August, it was said that the number of people playing fantasy football was a “fast-growing 36.8 million.” So lets say for the sake of growth and rounding that it’s now 40 million. Let’s also say that many of those people are in multiple leagues — some more than two, some two and some just one — to bring the total number of teams to 80 million. Let’s say most leagues have 10 teams, making the total number of leagues 8 million. Now, Westbrook is a prominent player who is surely on a roster in virtually every league. With most leagues having already entered the fantasy playoffs, some teams were eliminated already, but let’s say that Westbrook was still playing in half of the 8 million leagues (a reasonable guess based on some leagues being down to 6 or 8 teams and some being down to 4 by this past weekend), thus giving him an impact in 4 million leagues. Let’s say that in 1 of every 20 of the leagues in which he was still playing, Westbrook not scoring a TD on that play at the end was the deciding factor in a game (that seems to be a reasonable, perhaps even low estimate, considering it’s universally 6 points, but we’ll go with it). That’s 200,000 fantasy games he impacted. Let’s say for the sake of argument the average entry fee in a league is $50, meaning a total prize pool of $500 for a 10-team league. While it’s hard to know exact breakdowns of money, let’s say that the difference in winning or losing because of Westbrook’s decision was $125 (factoring in how far either team would have gone in the playoffs had they advanced, how much leagues pay for winning a championship, etc.). That $125 is probably the biggest guess, but we hope you agree that it sounds at least reasonable. That means Westbrook’s decision, solely in fantasy football terms, influenced 200,000 leagues times $125, for a total impact of $25 million — the same value as the five-year contract extension Westbrook signed two years ago. Now, we realize you could play this game every week with close calls, guys being pushed out of bounds at the 1, etc. The difference here, in our minds, is that it was a game with fantasy playoff implications and it was an outcome based on a rational decision, not a stroke of luck or a routine piece of game action. It was a great football decision; whether you liked it or not probably depended on your level of addiction to fake football, your level of monetary investment and, most importantly, which side of the ball you were on. For the record, we lost both our playoff games yesterday. Westbrook was an opponent in one game, and we still lost handily. So even luck can’t overcome a mediocre roster and injuries.
An extended Fasola-link, with pictures of the lad, is coming up next.
57 Responses to "Monday (solid economics) edition: Wha’ Happened?"
I actually got a touch weepy just thinking of his brilliance when i heard about it. OK, that might be an a stretch, but not too many athletes wouldve been that smart and had such awareness. BRAVO mr. Westbrook.
Alright Rand you have officially lost it. I think the WWL is calling your phone right now. After that breakdown they want to hire you to calculate the chances of Johan Santana wearing a green shirt on the 3rd Wednesday of the 7 month in 2010.
I won’t even mention how off base some of your assumptions are.(You know what happens when you assume!) It was a great play by Westbrook but your $25 million dollar guess is about as correct as that amount they predicted Purple Jesus would make owners in FF.
Oh yeah, DA BEARS!!!!
For the record, Westbrook’s play did not affect the RBFFL. He’s on Stu’s team and Stu would still be losing by 1 point right now.
Also for the record, we have $25 million in Schrute Bucks on the line.
jama, have to say im getting a bit worried about this game tonight. I get an eerie feeling whenever the Vikings are playing someone and everyone picks the Vikings…. DOOMSVILLE
jpf
The Redskins and Saints have both offered hookers and blow to the Bears players if they can pull off the upset. So if I’m a Vikes fan I would be nervous too.
I’m glad I didn’t pay to be bad at Fantasy Football.
Hmmm, if they are offering that, that could explain the Dwight Smith fiasco.
Sorry, they have offered Bears players Escorts and candy of the nose. (I don’t want to offend anyone)
Thanks for the retraction jama, My Catholic gradeschool sensibilities were offended…
Candy of the nose…that sounds delicious! I wasn’t nearly as interested when you called it “blow”…
How bout eye and nose candy…. mmmmm, such a delicious combination. Im wondering if we can get the makers of Candyland to make an adult version?
Silicon Slopes, Meth Mountain, Stripper North Pole…etc.
Brian Westbrook can’t be comfortable in that picture. It looks like he’s on a bicycle with no seat.
Just dont get stuck in Venereal Valley.
Dave
I think the stick up the [redacted] would be the most uncomfortable part of that picture, but I could be wrong.
jpf: I expect you to give Hasbro a call.
http://www.hasbro.com/common/images/products/0470043771e_a400.jpg
Did P3 get booted or is he stuck in Venereal Valley today?
And for good measure
Da Bears!!!
I don’t know if P3 got booted, but he was really pushing his luck at the end of last week.
That was a lot of calculating for only two cups of coffee in me …
I was not affected by Sir Sitdown in my fantasy playoffs (in which I’ll probably go 1-for-2 with a championship berth. Hester and Berrian must be shut down for that to happen, though. I cannot believe I’ll be rooting for the Purple’s secondary tonight over free bowling). So I applaud his move.
Went 1-1 in my playoffs that matter yesterday, and the win was in my big money league. I’d like to thank the weather and Tom Brady for making that happen.
(/fantasy talk that nobody else cares about)
The Redactular starts at kickoff, correct? I should be there between 7:30-8:00, depending on kids, wife, dinner, etc.
Redactular note: Odds are my dramatic entrance will be around halftime.
Dave, as for fantasy football, I thought all football was fantasy.
And as for getting da boot, the way I saw all that was as much as I’ve constantly jammed you guys or been jammed (rightfully) back, I didn’t know the same rules didn’t apply to goils. But enuf said on that..except to say in my neighborhood if someone dares me to insult them….I will 
Before Sunday nite, I thought the Broncos in their high altitude (can U imagine Phatty Bacon wheezing) and their outdoor sometimes very cold stadium would be the best bet to knock off these Purple pretenders B4 some real playoff team gets to them on their own turf. Now, I think these Redskins are for real…at least I gotta hope so or it’s more weeks of hearing about how Tavaris has come around “blah,blah,blah…
Even bigger than Westbrook was Brady. 3 points! And in the playoffs to boot. AD and the vikes d need to score 60 points combined!
Hmmmmmmm, what can we have for bowling awards? Since I already ordered Rocket’s book.
1st Place: A Randball t-shirt
“Randball’s 1st Annual Spectacular Redactular?” With a picture of him and P3 in all their glory?
2nd Place: An Adult version of Candyland
taking ideas for 3rd place.
JPF: if I’m reading the Evite correctly, Dave MN is bringing, like, a dozen people. I’d say third place is 15 minutes of hanging with his entourage.
I didnt know this was a S&M party, I wouldve chosen my leather outfit.
Dave MN has an entourage? Must be the spillovers from his brother Dustin Diambond.
Da Bears!!!
What can I say? I know people who know people who want to come.
The entourage consists of a RandBall reader (read: male) and possibly three lady friends of his. Might help the ratio a bit.
It’s all who you know…and I know Screech.
If he has three lady friends, why on earth would he read RandBall?
One of my friends might come, but he has to dog sit for his ex wife and he can’t board it. It’s a F’ing show dog.
someone needs to remind him of the meaning EX
First off, jpf, you don’t have an ex.
It’s not taking your turn, jpf.
My favorite Screech moment…
That was awesome. I remember being really, really disappointed the first time I saw Made. I was a huge Swingers fan, and I couldn’t get past how unlike their previous characters Favreau and Vaughn were.
However, after several viewings, I found that it’s actually a pretty funny movie. Diddy’s appearance is pretty entertaining as well.
Dave - I owe you a Jagr bomb tonight. I hope you got your haircut recently.
Yeah, and all my boys did, too.
okay, ill quietly sit here chastised.
I had a vision. 36.8 million guys and gals in football jerseys and Wranglers (Loose Fit) screaming at the flat screen “Westbrook sleeps with the fishes!”
Be careful Brian, very careful. During working hours you may not recognize them. But they’re all around you…and they’re very, very angry.
Question:odds of Vikings losing to Redskins or Broncos ???
or why don’t wildcard teams play each other first to thin the herd instead of playing the lowest ranked division winners who earned not backed their way on board ?
I win by 4 thanks to BWest -
A Giants fan who loves 1 Eagle today
tonite = the vaunted Bear D tries, and succeeds, in stuffing Peterson BUT again all that attention on one guy makes Tavaris look “like he’s coming along” (a Pipress headline) so he then “shreds” the Bear dbs (who are covering A.D., remember) going 8 for 15. The whole deal makes any fan not blinded by purple lights wonder what will happen when the Vikes take on a balanced team i.e. one with both a strong d and a q.b. not named Orton…
Forget about Eli sneaking up behind the Vikings. The Giants have pretty much backed into the best of the rest Bowl.
Instead, watch the Saints (7-6)…they have 2 games left ..both moderately difficult, Eagles and Bears.
The Vikings (7-7) have three games, same degrees of difficulty, Bears Redskins and Broncos, but being three games, there is more risk of injury particularly playing in Denver and also of fluke losses. This thing isn’t over til the Phat man sings..
It is wrong to assume that had he scored, that there was no decision to make. Still, his decision to go down has ZERO impact financially. If he had CHOSEN to score, his play still has the same assumed $25M impact. Perhaps my understanding is redacted.
Well, I lost my playoff game last week thanks to his ’smart’ play. I was lost by 8 points. His TD was worth 8 points.
That play cost me $850 (the difference gbetween a $1k first place finish and a $150 for second). And, it was not necessarily “smart.” Odds of coming back from down by 11 with two minutes left are lower than the odds of a fumbled snap on a kneel down and a comeback from down by four.
BB — ouch. That outcome hurts. But I have to disagree with the assessment about the likelier comeback. I don’t think I can count more than two or three times in the past couple of decades that a team has fumbled a kneeldown snap, let alone had it cost them a game. A comeback from 11 down? Unlikely, but more possible.
I have the perfect answer for this dilemna. After witnessing Westbrook unselfish brilliance, I did what most of you didn’t do: GET LAID!!!!
Wild Bill
Hats off to you my good man.
Turtle Dove
The pen is really mightier than the sword, as you have proven here.
Thanks for sharing
candice michelle pics
I Googled for something completely different, but found your page…and have to say thanks. nice read.
I’d prefer reading in my native language, because my knowledge of your languange is no so well. But it was interesting! Look for some my links:
Eric
I think you are absolutely on track here!
