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Exhaustive math: The case for 2

Posted on December 31st, 2007 – 12:52 PM
By Michael Rand

0000000000000000000000000000000000000001parishilton.jpgWhat started out as a nice little post about the success rate of NFL teams going for 2-point conversions turned into a marathon Google search that yielded only the opportunity to do our own research. It was pretty surprising to find out that with the large number of NFL web sites and interest out there, we could not find a simple thing like the number of 2-point attempts this year. In any event, we finally did find a team-by-team breakdown of the number of 2-pointers made (30) this season, which was up from 21 a year ago. From there, we went team-by-team and found the number of touchdowns scored by each team, subtracted the number of extra points attempted and found the possible number of two-point tries they would have had. Then we went through every game of the season to see how many ended on an overtime TD, thus resulting in a TD with no extra point try (there were four such games, one victory each for Green Bay, San Diego, Miami and San Francisco). That fancy math brings us to the hopeful conclusion that there were 30 successful 2-point tries in 59 2-point attempts, roughly just a little better than 50 percent (thought we’re not entirely sure if a botched snap or bad hold in which there is no kick attempted counts as a missed kick or a failed 2-point try. If it’s the latter, the 2-point success rate in cases of actual attempts would likely go up a little). Considering there were 13 extra points missed all season, the success rate on those tries was about 98 or 99 percent. So it’s a virtual cinch for 1 point, and a half-and-half proposition for two. A wash, right? Well, hold on. Your Minnesota Vikings were 3-for-3, including a pair in the fourth quarter of the season finale yesterday (both on T-Jack runs). We’d like to go on record as saying that if a team has a mobile quarterback, putting in a five-receiver set for one play from the two-yard line and running a QB draw or some sort of run-pass option will work more than 50 percent of the time and going for 2 should therefore become the standard, not the exception, for such teams. Your thoughts? (That Paris Hilton stamp has nothing to do with anything, obviously).

13 Responses to "Exhaustive math: The case for 2"

Stu says:

December 31st, 2007 at 1:00 pm

Punt on first down. No one will see it coming.

jama says:

December 31st, 2007 at 1:03 pm

Rand

You now owe me $5. I think my IQ just dropped 3 points after reading that and I need all the IQ points I can get.

Dave MN says:

December 31st, 2007 at 1:05 pm

If you kicked a long field goal and it fell short, but the offense got a guy down there (Devin Hester, maybe), who caught the failed try would it be a touchdown?

Dave MN says:

December 31st, 2007 at 1:06 pm

Jama,

You aren’t allowed to have negative IQ, so your math does not add up.

Merry New Year! Would you like some beef jerky?

jama says:

December 31st, 2007 at 1:19 pm

Only if it’s Peppered and not Teriyaki!

Stu says:

December 31st, 2007 at 1:56 pm

Billick is out in Baltimore.

/offtopic

RandBall says:

December 31st, 2007 at 2:05 pm

but they said he was coming back. how could they lie?

super rookie says:

December 31st, 2007 at 2:08 pm

Mr. Rand, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever read. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this site is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Sorry. Couldn’t Resist.

Mike Max Fan says:

December 31st, 2007 at 2:17 pm

Jackson is an emerging star in the NFL.

Stu says:

December 31st, 2007 at 2:19 pm

how could they lie?

I assume nine years of offensive futility made it easy to break their word.

Joker says:

December 31st, 2007 at 2:29 pm

The only reason this post even exsists is so Rand can put it on his resume when he goes for his interview…if Billick would have went for 2 in all of his PAT attempts, he would have won more games and kept his job. Rand, did you get a phone call for the coaching opening…

Paris Hilton » Exhaustive math: The case for 2 says:

December 31st, 2007 at 4:17 pm

[…] Here’s another interesting post I read today by Randball […]

Twinstalker says:

January 1st, 2008 at 3:07 am

First, I’m not sure you have the data points to reject the null hypothesis that mobile QBs are better at the 2-point (n=3, all Tarvaris?).

Second, regarding the Paris Hilton stamp. I think it’s important we take a world view and work to end women’s suffrage. How much suffrage should they have to endure? It’s inhuman. I bet 70% of young women would agree. The older ones, well, they don’t have the same passion for the issue.