StarTribune.com

Tuesday (Statistics) edition: Wha’ Happened?

Posted on February 26th, 2008 – 8:05 AM
By Michael Rand
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Here’s how we generally know what kind of day it has been: if we’re driving home from work and Barreiro is still on KFAN, life is pretty good. It means we’ve at least managed to leave the office before 7, the night is still young. The world is our oyster. If Sludge and Lake are on, however, we have problems. Sure, we’re not driving when everyone else is driving. But it probably means it’s been a long day, and the inevitable exhaustion at home is going to take over sooner rather than later. Last night was a Sludge and Lake night. It’s not our favorite ‘FAN program, but it’s hardly our least favorite. The lads have a good time, and they’re clearly getting better at what they do. They also had a caller last night who posed an interesting question: Why not charge receivers with interceptions instead of quarterbacks on plays in which it was clearly the receiver’s fault (for example, the ball bounced off their hands and was then picked off)? While this would clearly open up a rather subjective can of worms, it does make one think about the nature of statistics in general.


How many of a QB’s interceptions aren’t his fault? Wouldn’t you love to see a statistic on receivers that listed the number of interceptions that were their fault? Really, it would be a pretty important number. And there are so many more examples that fall into roughly the same category. Now, as someone who used to compile team-by-team statistics when he was 7 years old by reading the backs of baseball cards (pen and paper, folks. It was a little obsessive), we’ve always loved the quick information one can get from comparing numbers. But statistics are compiled during the fast-paced flow of games — a relative blink of an eye — and then they sit for an eternity. They don’t tell you the story of why, just the story of what — and even that is inaccurate in some cases. While it’s true that some sports (baseball at the forefront) have forged ahead with new categories that at least attempt to get at a more meaningful truth, at the end of the day there are some stats that are just plain misleading. Plus-minus in hockey affects players who might be 150 feet from the play or might have just stepped onto the ice. The RBI in baseball is often a product of luck and surroundings more than anything else. Even something simple like a TD pass for a quarterback is part-skill, part offensive philosophy (see Peyton Manning, 2004). We’re curious: What do you consider the most meaningless or misleading of all the sports statistics? Also, if you know of a way to stop the Spammer from sending the “Do You Love Scrabble?” e-mails to us, that would be great. Yes we love Scrabble. But we’re not allowed to play it anymore. Stop tempting us! Oh, and Peter Forsberg. [Redacted].

Fasola-link! Probably one of just a few hundred commercials ever made that featured former Bengals QB Ken Anderson, Cicely Tyson and the dearly missed Kurt Vonnegut Jr. This is simply awesome. Be a coffee achiever!

14 Responses to "Tuesday (Statistics) edition: Wha’ Happened?"

John Madden says:

February 26th, 2008 at 8:18 am

Brett Favre has never thrown an interception that was his fault. The receivers need to know when and where to break. They also need to learn how to catch a 100 mph rocket from 3 yards away. Brett Favre is the best QB ever and has never made a mistake!

Where’s that gravy, I’m hungry.

(I know I’m going to regret this in 5 minutes when P3 logs on so I apologize)

Dave MN says:

February 26th, 2008 at 8:19 am

My least favorite stat? I think I’d have to go with time in the 40 at the NFL combine. The most overhyped, useless stat around. Troy Williamson, I’m looking at you.

I do love how baseball is trying to get closer to “the Truth” though. I mean, when statisticians pointed out that Derek Jeter is the worst defensive starting shortstop in the Majors while A-Rod was once the best, well, I was just giddy.

John Madden says:

February 26th, 2008 at 8:30 am

Most pointless stat is QB rating. If you dink and dunk and go 18-25 for 130 yards and don’t throw an interception your rating is over 100 (I’m looking at you Tarvaris) even though you really haven’t done that much. As much as I hate Dr. Z over at SI, he has written some great stuff about how outdated the QB rating system has become.

When Rex Grossman has a QB rating over 100 for 8 games in one season you know that the formula is off

jama says:

February 26th, 2008 at 8:31 am

I agree with John!

Dave MN says:

February 26th, 2008 at 8:34 am

We’ll just call you jamadden…

Kevin McHale says:

February 26th, 2008 at 9:10 am

I believe that the most pointless stat in today’s NBA is definitely a team’s win/loss record. I don’t think it is an accurate measure of a team’s performance.

Also, I hate stats that show a team’s overall record during a specific period of time, such as when a General Manager was in charge of the team.

The last stat that I think is pointless is not really a stat at all. I hate it when a media outlet reports the “actual” number of people in attendance for a game. Hey, we sold more than 10,000 tickets to the game, so that should be the number reported, not the estimated 2,500 people in attendance.

I’m out of here. I just got another Scrabble email and Telfair showed me how to get around the company firewall.

Joker says:

February 26th, 2008 at 10:38 am

In a way I do agree with the interception point, but at the same time, how do you judge it? You’ll always have the “Off his finger tips and just out of his reach” vs. “You touch it, you catch it” argument. Who decides who gets charged with what?

Most over rated stat is in Baseball. It’s a pitcher’s win/loss record. How many pitchers out there go 8-12 in a season with 7 or 8 of those losses being 0-1 or 1-2 because GMs load up on pitching and spend $38 and a ham sandwitch on guys like Rondell White to come in and try to hit the ball? How many of them get charged with a loss in the game because of plays like Bill Buckner?

“Oh, hey, and another thing, Meat. You don’t know [redacted], all right? If you wanna make it to the bigs, you’ll listen to me. Annie only wants you so she can boss you around, got it? So relax! Let’s have some fun out here! This game’s fun, OK? Fun god[redacted]. And don’t hold the ball so hard, OK? It’s an egg. Hold it like an egg.”

Ryan P. says:

February 26th, 2008 at 10:39 am

I see Joker’s getting us ready for the upcoming Twins season.

jama says:

February 26th, 2008 at 10:52 am

I got my tickets to the opener today. I will probably be the only guy there booing Hunter’s return but I have always thought he was one of the most overrated players the Twins have ever had. He’s up there with Punto and Mauer.

Paul Peter Paulos says:

February 26th, 2008 at 11:19 am

I won’t dignify John Madden with a response particularly since he most cowardly hides behind a nom de plume, so instead I’ll offer up this nugget about stats I heard long ago….”95% percent of violent crimes are committed within 24 hours of eating bread. Bread makes people violent!”…So there, Mr. Madden, since what did a b’ball coach know about the greatest qb that ever lived ?

StraightCashHomey says:

February 26th, 2008 at 11:53 am

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe John Madden is the greatest Favre scholar of our time. In fact, I think he and Deanna fight for “private time” with Brett.

Dave MN says:

February 26th, 2008 at 11:56 am

In fact, I think he and Peter King fight for “private time” with Brett.

Fixed.

Paul Peter Paulos says:

February 26th, 2008 at 12:31 pm

I heard Brett works under Deanna’s center…a rumor that one be