Revisionist history: Joe Mauer’s home run power
Posted on May 1st, 2008 – 1:18 PMBy Michael Rand
Welcome to a new feature that we hope will become a regular attraction here in these parts. It’s called “Revisionist History,” and the premise is simple: we’ll take a trip through time, pulling out assorted facts and/or quotes to present a big-picture look at a subject. These facts and/or quotes will likely leave out any information that doesn’t support a general point we’re trying to make because, hey, that’s what hindsight is all about! First up: Joe Mauer and the power debate. It seems as though fans have been waiting a long time for the Twins’ catcher to hit for power. He has the frame; he’s shown flashes (remember the six homers in just over 100 at bats in 2004 before he was hurt?), and he has a sweet swing. But he’s never hit more than 13 in a season and this year, exactly one-sixth of the way in, Mauer does not have a single dinger. What kind of hitter did others think Mauer would become, as opposed to the kind of hitter he perhaps is? Good question. Let’s head to the Star Tribune archives:
April 2, 2005: Gardenhire said he thinks Mauer will eventually surprise people with his power, just as Morneau will surprise by hitting for a high average.
March 4, 2007: Mauer’s 6-5 frame and his rare ability to make consistently solid contact leave people drooling over his power potential. But after hitting nine home runs in 2005, his total jumped to just 13 last season. “Remember, he’s only 23 years old,” Oliva said. “He’s going to get a little stronger. He’s going to get a little smarter. It’s very hard to do better than he did last year. But I think he’ll be able to hit more home runs, with time.”
Sept. 30, 2007: His offseason goal is to lay low, heal and add strength. Yes, he would like to hit for more power. “It’s just a matter of getting stronger,” (Mauer) said. “You never felt like you had your legs under you. This year I’m going to get strong, and maybe some of those doubles will go over the fence next year.”
April 30, 2008: Ron Gardenhire: “Joe uses the whole field and is a high-average hitter. Joe is a 10-15 home-run guy. Maybe he could hit more, I don’t know, but he’s a .300 hitter. I think that’s what we have and that’s not bad, and for people who want him to hit more home runs, well, first you’ve got to have a guy who has that kind of swing, and that’s not Joe’s swing.”
Now: Mauer is still a young man, and based on the linked piece (a nicely done column by Jim Souhan), this power thing is weighing on his mind. But looking back over the years, we’re confused: should we expect 20 home runs on a consistent basis at some point or should we not? Even 10-15 seems optimistic based on the 9, 13 and 7 he’s hammered in his three reasonably full seasons. Is this “future power” ever going to arrive, or is Mauer forever going to be an 8-12 home run guy — a catching version of Mark Grace — better suited to bat first or second instead of third in the order? And should people just learn to live with that and appreciate Mauer for what he is: an outstanding defensive catcher who will hit .300 and get on base?
10 Responses to "Revisionist history: Joe Mauer’s home run power"
Is this “future power” ever going to arrive, or is Mauer forever going to be an 8-12 home run guy — a catching version of Mark Grace — better suited to bat first or second instead of third in the order? And should people just learn to live with that and appreciate Mauer for what he is: an outstanding defensive catcher who will hit .300 and get on base?
Probably not, yes, and yes.
I think he should bat second, or maybe even leadoff. Delmon’s going to be our #3 eventually. Right now I think Kubel’s more suited for the #3 spot in the order. I think Gomez needs to be closer to the bottom of the order until he gets on base more regularly.
Is it too far fetched to believe he’ll have a Jeter-like career, in terms of comparable stats?
It can’t be “Jeter-like” unless Mauer becomes the worst defensive starting catcher in the league, while the best defensive starting catcher in the league is playing right field on his team…
The Jeter comparables are fair and on pace, though Grace seems to be a more natural comparison. Fan sentiment towards Jeter aside, I think Twins backers would be very satisfied with a Jeter-like career at the plate. But that would have to include a couple of years over 20 home runs and an expectation of the mid-to-high teens every year. True, Jeter only hit 10 apiece in his first couple of full seasons. So there is room to grow.
I also wonder how much of the whole “the Twins way of playing” myth (?) plays into this. (See also: David Ortiz) Mauer sure doesn’t ever seem to look to blast one out of the park, making his own priority to just get on base and let Morneau and Cuddyer hit the home runs. I’m thinking maybe somebody should eventually tell him, “Hey Joe, we have 14 home runs as a team a month into the season, could you maybe look to hit a few pls k thx bai.”
Isn’t Mauer already trying to be Jeter with the Ladies?
I am with Dave, if Mauer weren’t hitting 3rd people wouldn’t expect as many HR’s. But at the same time, if Mauer wasn’t so darn adorable, my lady friend wouldn’t fantasize about him when she’s with me.
Dave +1.
I’m in the “let’s just appreciate Mauer for what he is” camp. He’s been a major story for so long here in Minnesota that if he won the Triple Crown, people would say, “Yeah, but how many saves did he have?”
Mauer’s pitching now?!?
He should be. He should also be starting at the off guard position for the Wolves, waiting in the wings to take over for Tarvaris Jackson this fall, and probably playing goalie and center for the Wild. Just ask Dick Bremer.
