Livan Hernandez’s torrid pace

Posted on May 29th, 2008 – 1:33 PM
By Michael Rand

300.jpgAs we listened to Kraig Applecherry’s fine postgame Twins radio report last night, we were struck by the fact that Livan Hernandez, after Wednesday’s start, has allowed 103 hits already this season, and we’re not even at the one-third mark. He’s had 12 starts and pitched 76 1/3 innings; even if we put him on a 35-start pace (not quite 12 every one-third of the season, considering that’s a lot of starts to make and the breaks have to fall right), he’s on pace to throw a reasonable 223 innings and give up exactly 300 hits. Now, Livan has consistently been in the top 10 of hits allowed throughout his career, and led the NL five times (including last year with 247). But it made us wonder: when was the last time a pitcher allowed 300 hits. The answer: 1979, Phil Niekro. In the past 20 years, only one pitcher (Scott Erickson with Baltimore in 1998) has even surpassed 280. Much of this is due to the fact that pitchers throw far fewer innings than they used to; indeed, as recently as 1971, Mickey Lolich allowed what seems to be an astonishing 336 hits — until you realize he threw 376 innings and won 25 games. Hernandez has always been an inning-eater, but in this era of pitch counts and relief specialists — not to mention impatience that can bump a starter from the rotation — it would be pretty amazing for a hurler to allow 300 hits. It would be even more impressive if he could do it as the staff “ace” while winning 17-18 games, which is also Livan’s current pace.

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