Some of you might have noticed that Joe Mauer hit a game-tying home run last night, making a sooth-sayer out of us. On Friday, we predicted that Mauer would hit his first home run of the season in the series against the Yankees. He took it right down to the wire, but in the end Joe Mauer made us look good. It got us to thinking, “Would other people like to know how to be this awesome?” (Kidding, of course). So we decided to come up with a list of keys to making successful predictions (and avoiding unsuccessful ones). Lattewarrior, you should find this extremely helpful as you head to Las Vegas later this week. Make sure you print out RandBall’s Keys to Keen Sports Predictions (subtitle, pending Stu’s approval: And Pulling In Serious Arm Candy). Here we go:

1) Play the percentages. In the case of the Mauer called shot, we did just that. Coming into this season, he hit a home run roughly once every 43 official at bats — not exactly Babe [redacted] Ruth, but still a pace that made it perplexing for him to have zero at the one-third point in the season. Mauer’s reaction, he said, was “It’s about time.” Those were the types of odds we were playing.

2) Lead with your head, not your heart. Another example: Ron Gardenhire apparently predicted Mauer will hit 14 more home runs this season.While that’s certainly possible, the numbers support maybe another eight or nine. It’s fun to make outrageous claims. It’s less fun to be wrong about them all the time.

(But can this get me any arm candy, you might be wondering. Maybe! Read on.)

3) Stick to what you know. See, Lattewarrior, this is where Vegas gets its hooks into you. You start off with a simple little game like blackjack. Next thing you know, you’re five hours into a gambling bender, you black out a little, the free drinks keep coming, the oxygen is pumping, and a six-team parlay ticket involving two WNBA games, two MLB underdogs and lord knows what else has made its way into your pocket. And you can pretty much guarantee nothing else is making its way into your pocket after that. One last tip: Always keep a dollar in your shoe in case you need an emergency three-quarter pound hot dog at 4 a.m. You’ll never gamble a shoe dollar. Probably.

4) When making bold and outrageous claims, at least try to pick someone you can believe in. In that Mauer post, we also predicted Delmon Young would hit a home run by this coming Friday. Like Mauer, he was stuck on zero. Like Mauer, he’s at least a talented hitter who has a track record of at least going deep once every 45 or 50 at bats. Someone like, say, Nick Punto is also stuck on zero home runs. We think you get the point without spelling it out.

5) Don’t make predictions that have no net benefit to you. The Mauer thing was easy enough. If we’re right, that’s great. If we’re wrong, we’re used to that. Statements like, “I’ll buy a Jason Kubel jersey if he hits a home run” set you up for a lose-lose situation, provided you don’t want a Kubel jersey. Which, in the case of real life, you did not. If he hits the homer, you lose. If he makes an out, you lose. Stensation made a similar claim last night prior to Delmon Young’s game-winning double. If that ball leaves the yard, he’s sporting a Young jersey today, probably against his will. Better predictions involve win-win scenarios such as, “I predict Carlos Gomez will smell his bat after a foul ball. If so, I’ll enjoy this delicious piece of pie.”

6) Don’t be a smug [redacted] when you get one right.

OK, now about that arm candy: the RandBall Better Half was so impressed when we told her our prediction of a Mauer home run — in front of all our “Internet friends” — came true that when we told her, she rolled her eyes. So it does not work on existing arm candy. … The two people to publicly acknowledge our successful prediction — Toonces via comment, Stensation via text — are dudes. So that’s not really helpful, either. Guess we’re going to have to say no to that. Sorry if we misled anyone.

Fasola-link! Cheese map of Canada. Sweet.

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