A new baseball stat: Meaningful Home Run Index
Posted on August 12th, 2008 – 11:30 AMBy Michael Rand
We’ve had a lot of time in the car so far on this Great Baseball Road Trip. It’s led to some interesting conversations and also to a bunch of nonsense. Roughly 20 percent of the time one day was used to discuss a new baseball statistic proposed by Rocket and enhanced by the collective: His basic premise: “I want to know whether or not it is a valid criticism to say A-Rod only hits meaningless home runs.” And so, we came up with the following criteria to measure meaningful home runs. A player gets:
*1 point for every home run hit in innings 1-6 that either brings a team within two runs or fewer or is hit when a team is up by two runs or fewer.
*1.25 points for every home run in the 7th inning or later that brings a team within two runs or fewer or is hit when a team is up by two runs or fewer OR for any home run in innings 1-6 that ties the score or puts a team ahead.
*1.5 points for every home run in the 7th inning or later that ties the score or puts a team in the lead.
*0 points for all other home runs.
The total number of points is then divided by the total number of home runs hit for the Richotte Meaningful Home Run Index (or Schottie for short).
Questions:
1) How does A-Rod’s RMHRI compare to other sluggers?
2) Are the numerical values assigned sufficient – that is, what should the variation be for “more meaningful” home runs?
3) How is the stat reported/recorded?
4) What is the expected average number and high-end number for a “clutch” home run hitter?
5) Can a similar measurement be applied to RBIs?
Your thoughts? (And yes, we know we are nerds).
53 Responses to "A new baseball stat: Meaningful Home Run Index"
Answers:
1) If you want to compare A-Rod’s RMHRI to Jose Canseco’s RMHRI, you’ll have to ask Madonna.
2) In a word, no.
3) The sole responsibility for tracking/reporting this new stat will fall upon each team’s mascot. TC Bear knows that he won’t be as busy as Bennie the Brewer.
4) Ahhh, er, uhm…is the answer 7?
5) Not without another 6-7 hours in the car with the blogging royalty that is the GBRT.
Sadly, I’ve been thinking of the clutch statistic a lot lately. I was actually going to apply it more generally though - something like per at bat, according to the inning, outs, score, runners in scoring position, and somehow relevancy of the game. I’m sure that there’s already a stat that covers all of that, but I don’t know what it is.
Also, in your ARod stat, I think you need to include whether or not the game matters. Mr. October and all that.
I’d award 2 for a game winning home run
yes, it is obvious that a game in a late september race is much more important than a game against the royals in april
If you want to know if Arod ONLY hits meaningless home runs, shouldn’t the statistic be a percentage? Each individual home run a player hits must meet some sort of standard (similar to a Quality Start) that determines if the home run is Meaningful.
If ARod finishes the season with 50 home runs, but only hits 5 “Meaningful” home runs, then he would have a sh**ty Schottie percentage and the criticism against ARod would be valid.
In contrast, if a pinch hitter for a team finishes a season with only 7 home runs, but 5 of them were “Meaningful”, his Schottie number would be equal to ARod’s, but his Schottie percentage would be much higher.
New Good Sports is up…
Rand and Mayor Rybak were tripped up by several of our questions, including the Fat Tub of Goo one.
A fellow Randballer serves as moderator.
Aw man, I wanted a dramatic reading from the Mayor…
Why isn’t aura part of the equation?
Re: Good Sports
Equal time for the Republicans! Rand must quiz Michele Bachman on Lynx trivia.
Joe Posnanski is ahead of the curve on this one. I have nothing to say that would not be blatantly ripped off from him.
Rand must quiz Michele Bachman on Lynx trivia.
In the dramatic reading of Fatal Attraction, Bachmann actually kills and cooks a bunny before chasing Rand with a knife…
This also happened during the Katherine Kersten “Good Sports” episode. Go figure.
If the daily lunchtime post is going to be up for 20 hours during the road trip, I would like to request an accompanying picture. Something interesting and nice to look at. Maybe a picture of a bird eating pizza in a tree.
Thanks again to everyone who contributed to the Good Sports trivia X-travaganza.
Katherine Kersten “Good Sports” episode.
I want this to happen yesterday.
Clarence:
Gawdz, Dave MN, for a second I thought you were responding to Stu so I instantly shut down my entire computer just in case. Don’t DO that.
I have a tough time giving any home runs a value of zero. As Twins fans know, it’s not implausible for a team to come back by 6 runs through the course of a game. Does that home run that made a 6-1 lead into a 7-1 lead have less value when a team comes back to make it a 7-6 game?
How about the two-run homer in the 6th to make a game 5-2, but it also chases the starter? Or even better, after the homer the starter is rattled and the sinker doesn’t sink as much, and now it’s 5-2 with 2 on and one out.
While game-tying home runs, especially later in the game, and game-winning home runs are important, I’m not sold on them having that much more value than the home run that extends a lead or starts chipping away at a big lead.
How many points does A-Rod get if Madonna stops him at 2nd base?
An extra five points during any point of the game if the batter is Adam Everett or Nick Punto. (Demoralization factor.)
I agree with Clarence. I don’t know if you can only arbitrarily assign points, I think you need to go all the way and make it a percentage of the times they are at-bat in those situations and don’t get a HR.
Example: Yanks down by 2 in the 7th, A-Rod up and no HR, comes up in 9th 2R-HR tying it. Comes up in 11th, K’s and the Yanks loose. Even though he tied the game, they still lost, making it meaningless.
Was just going to link to the Posnanski article above. Nothing more needs to be said on the matter.
Yeah, agree with muxhut, time of year has to factor in as well–a home run that gives the lead after the seventh inning in April isn’t the same as the same homerun in the same situation in September.
Obviously, to figure out the average number of meaningful HR in a year one would need, we’d have to measure every player historically. I think Baseballl-Reference.com might be up to the task.
What if a player hits a solo home run in the bottom of 9th inning but the team loses by one, yet in the 2nd inning he struck out with two men in scoring position. If he had hit the home run in the second his team woukld have won the game. I think the outcome of the game would have to factor into the stat.
A game in April and a game in September matter the exact same. We all know this, right?
Assigning a 0-point value to other HR is important, because that would enable you to set up a percentage, as Clarence suggested. Using the current scoring system, and dividing total points by total HR would establish a value to the homers that were hit.
That way, a pinch-hitter who hit 5 HR in only 7 AB would have an off-the-charts MHRI. Whereas, someone who hits 30 HR, but only 10 in meaningful situations, would have a less-respectable total.
Rand must quiz Michele Bachman on Lynx trivia.
If we get answers like this, I am all for it.
Wow… Read that quote three times, looking at her picture in between, and tell me she doesn’t start looking crazier.
Guys, I’m sorry, but my head is about to explode. If you want to know if a guy is “clutch” or not, type in his name at baseball-reference.com and click on “splits.” There you’ll find every relevant piece of info availabile - how the guy does with men on base, with two outs, in close games, in blowouts, and more. No need to create a new statistic.
I’m sorry for being the turd in the punch bowl. I really am.
A missionary?! But I don’t even believe in Jeebus.
Commenter Talker: Is Rand’s haircut just a summer experiment, or is he forgoing the pointy hairstyle forever? And if the latter, why weren’t we consulted?
SCH: her eyes do begin to follow you if you look closely enough. Be careful.
AZGG: The faux-hawk is slightly reminiscent of walking down frat row at the U about 6 years ago.
Rand needs to be more camera-ready these days, with the “Good Sports” gig and all. He can’t look like he’s out of touch with the young people of today by looking like a young person of 6 years past.
I agree, his new haircut is jarring. Luckily for us, he still walks around holding that basketball, so we can spot him in the crowd.
What is rand’s RMHRI with the faux hawk versus the crap has has now?
And with all the added time in front of the camera, do you think he hits the tanning booth a la Paul Magers? He’s looking less pasty lately.
AZGG: I enjoy that we still use Paul Magers as our standard-bearer for anchors. He was the best they had.
I caddied for Magers once. It was a 9:30 shotgun start. He was on hole 4, and when I walked up he was taking a leak in the bushes with a cig in one hand and a cocktail in the other.
God, I miss that guy.
I sold Magers wife sunglasses one day… or at least showed some to her. He is a big guy… and good with knots.
I agree he was great. Just very tan. I actually didn’t appreciate the local news in MN until I moved here. It’s absolute garbage in Phoenix. Even Robyn Robinson looks good in comparison. And what I wouldn’t give to see the passion and tenacity of Tom Lyden again.
Summer Haircut
(set to the tune of Summer Nights, from the popular Broadway musical Grease)
Summer haircut, had me a blast
Summer haircut, happened so fast
I met a stylist, cutting for free
Half-off pomade, just meant to be
Summer haircut, wash rinse repeat, to oh oh the bar with cheap wings
Well-a well-a well-a huh
Tell me more, tell me more
Did you get a shampoo?
Tell me more, tell me more
Did the pug come with you?
Over the ear, a bit off the side
#2 shears, the Rand will abide
Made small talk, she was from Blaine
Pregnant and stout, name was Elaine
Summer sun, something’s begun, but oh oh the summer haircut
Well-a well-a well-a huh
Tell me more, tell me more
Was her boyfriend in jail?
Tell me more, tell me more
Or did he make post bail?
It turned autumn - that’s where it ends
Went short and spiky, just like my friends
Think I tipped her 15 percent
Wonder if it’s already spent
Summer haircut grown out it seems, but oh those cheap bar wings
Cheap bar wings, cheap bar wings
Well, there’s the COW for you.
I’m really torn as to whether Stu deserves +10 or -10 for that.
Stu, do you take requests? If so, I’d like to see what you can do with Pavement’s “Cut Your Hair.”
Jon: if it helps, I was going to use Devil’s Haircut as the base, but I couldn’t make a good joke out of “mouthwash jukebox gasoline.”
Good work, Stu. Nice try going high-brow by attributing the song to the musical. We all know you own Grease on VHS and DVD.
Brandon: I’m lost after “Michael, don’t you go and cut your hair/do you think we’ll forget Perk at Play?”
AZGG: I live with three women. Simple osmosis rather than conscious choice, truse me.
or “trust me,” for that matter.
If Stu is taking requests for rewriting songs based on Rand’s physical appearance in GoodSports, may I suggest “Cod Piece” set to the theme from Good Times.
AZGG: I never thought much about the quality of news anchors in the Twin Cities until I moved to Iowa. I thought they were bad in Des Moines compared to the TC, but then I moved to California, I now get the news out of Yuma. Lets just say I went from the Majors of news casting to AAA to now Low A. I don’t even bother watching the news out here. Thank god for the internet.
RE: anchors. Although I was fortunate enough to miss it when I was down there, my brother says that former KSTP Sportsdouche Mark Curtis is now a straight-up Anchordouche in Phoenix, mustache and all.
Brandon - In the standings, April=September. In the actual game, not so much.
You can look at all the stats you want–you can’t tell me that hitting in the bottom of the ninth with two outs, two on, and down by two in April with five months of season ahead of you is the same as hitting in the bottom of the ninth with two on, two out, down by two in September and you’re a half game out of first place in the division.
Well, scratch that–maybe to some guys it is the same. Those are guys you want on your team. For some guys, they #$%^ the bed in those situations. And for all the good those guys may have done in getting you to be in that spot, they do no good if they can’t carry it all the way through.
Late Nite Off-Topic:
What’s bigger: the Grand Canyon or Mike Mussina’s strike zone?
Hey good job guys, giving A-Rod some bulletin board material to hit the Game Winning HR in the 12th. I guess he got 1.5 points for that.
You know he reads the Randball! Gosh!
New Stat… ummm, TPWGUMHRI or Twins pitchers who give up meaningful home runs, index. Current Bullpen = lots.
I accept full responsibility for posting that on the same day A-Rod hit a 1.5.
