Meaningful Home Run Index: A-Rod vs. Morneau
Posted on August 21st, 2008 – 3:07 PMBy Michael Rand
You might recall that a week or so back, while on the Great Baseball Road Trip, Rocket proposed a metric for measuring meaningful home runs that was bandied around in the car for several hours until the Richotte Meaningful Home Run Index was created. We wrote an initial post on it, explaining that Rocket was hoping to find a way to measure whether Alex Rodriguez really hit “meaningless” home runs as is asserted by fans and other critics, or whether it was just a mirage. The index, to refresh your memories, is measured thusly:
A player gets:
*1 point for every home run hit in innings 1-6 that either brings a team within two runs or fewer or is hit when a team is up by two runs or fewer.
*1.25 points for every home run in the 7th inning or later that brings a team within two runs or fewer or is hit when a team is up by two runs or fewer OR for any home run in innings 1-6 that ties the score or puts a team ahead.
*1.5 points for every home run in the 7th inning or later that ties the score or puts a team in the lead.
*0 points for all other home runs.
The total number of points is then divided by the total number of home runs hit for the Richotte Meaningful Home Run Index (or Schottie for short).
That formula was devised without looking up anyone’s stats. But with a little free time on our hands, we were finally able to test a couple of cases: A-Rod and Justin Morneau. While we’re hardly saying our metric is perfect or without need for adjustment, it did show some interesting results for this year:
A-Rod’s MHRI is 0.670; Morneau’s is 0.974. Thus, Morneau has hit far more “meaningful” home runs as a percentage than A-Rod has, at least this year, and at least according to our definitions. Perhaps more interestingly: A-Rod has 28 home runs this season and 18.75 meaningful home run points; Morneau, with just 19 home runs — nine fewer, obviously, than Mr. Rod — has nearly matched A-Rod’s raw total and has 18.5 meaningful home run points.
This obviously doesn’t mean a whole lot considering these are just two examples within a pretty small sample size of home runs, but it is at least an interesting start. Also: considering Minnesota’s overall run differential is +62, while the Yankees’ is +50, A-Rod would theoretically have as many if not slightly more chances to hit “meaningful” home runs since much of the stat is determined by the game’s relative closeness.
For the morbidly curious: the blow-by-blow of each home run (date, opponent, result and points awarded) is listed after the jump for both A-Rod and Morneau this season. If you see any mistakes in our math, please point them out. If you have the inclination to tabulate numbers for any other players, please do so. We suggest using ESPN.com’s player game log pages, which will show you when they hit home runs and also provide a quick link to the summary of all scoring plays for those games. And now, the specifics:
A-Rod homer log:
April 2 vs. Toronto, 2-run homer cut deficit from 5-0 to 5-2 in seventh. 0 points.
April 10 vs. Royals, solo homer in ninth upped lead from 4-1 to 5-1. 0 points.
April 14 vs. Tampa, solo homer in first inning upped lead from 1-0 to 2-0. 1 point.
April 16. vs. Boston, solo homer in first inning upped lead from 2-1 to 3-1. 1 point.
May 20 vs. Baltimore, 2-run homer in sixth cut deficit from 10-0 to 10-2. 0 points.
May 21 vs. Baltimore, solo homer in third upped lead from 3-0 to 4-0. 0 points.
May 27 vs. Baltimore, solo homer in fourth upped lead from 7-4 to 8-4. 0 points.
June 2. vs. Minnesota, 2-run homer in first broke tie and gave 2-0 lead. 1.25 points.
June 7 vs. Kansas city, 2-run homer in seventh cut deficit from 10-6 to 10-8. 1.25 points.
June 9 vs. Kansas city, 2-run homer in seventh makes 2-0 deficit a 2-2 game. 1.5 points.
June 14 vs. Houston, solo homer in second cuts 3-0 lead to 3-1. 1 point.
June 15 vs. Houston, 3-run homer in sixth pushes 6-0 lead to 9-0. 0 points.
June 17 vs. San Diego, solo homer in second breaks tie, gives 1-0 lead. 1.25 points.
June 18 vs. San Diego, solo homer in third ups 3-2 lead to 4-2. 1 point.
June 27 vs. Mets, solo homer in sixth cuts 11-4 deficit to 11-5. 0 points.
June 30 vs. Texas, solo homer in fourth cuts 2-0 lead to 2-1. 1 point.
July 2 vs. Texas, three-run homer in seventh makes 12-7 lead 15-7. 0 points.
July 6 vs. Boston, solo homer in second breaks tie, gives 1-0 lead. 1.25 points.
July 12 vs. Toronto, solo homer in fourth makes 8-4 lead 9-4. 0 points.
July 18 vs. Oakland, solo homer in sixth makes 6-1 lead 7-1. 0 points.
July 21 vs. Minnesota, 2-run homer in first makes scoreless game 2-0. 1.25 points.
July 29 vs. Baltimore, solo homer in sixth makes 2-0 deficit 2-1. 1 point.
July 30 vs. Baltimore, seventh-inning homer makes 10-2 lead 11-2. 0 points.
Aug. 2 vs. Angels, solo homer in sixth makes 5-2 lead 6-2. 0 points.
Aug. 8 vs. Angels, solo homer in second cuts 2-0 deficit to 2-1. 1 point.
Aug. 9 vs. Angels, solo homer in sixth breaks scoreless tie, makes 1-0 lead. 1.25 points.
Aug. 12 vs. Minnesota, solo homer in 12th breaks 6-6 tie, makes 7-6 lead. 1.5 points.
Aug. 17 vs. Kansas City, three-run homer in first makes 3-0 deficit 3-3 tie. 1.25 points.
Summary: 28 home runs; meaningful home run points: 18.75. Meaningful home run index: .670
Justin Morneau:
April 5 vs. Kansas City, three-run homer in fourth made 2-0 deficit 3-2 lead. 1.25 points.
April 6 vs. Kansas City, solo homer in sixth cut 2-0 deficit to 2-1. 1 point.
April 11 vs. Kansas City, solo homer in third made 4-0 lead 5-0. 0 points.
April 15 vs. Detroit, 2-run homer in sixth made 2-1 lead 4-1. 1 point.
April 19 vs. Cleveland, 2-run homer in first made scoreless game 2-0. 1.25 points.
April 25 vs. Texas, grand slam in third made 1-0 lead 5-0. 1 point.
May 14 vs. Toronto, two-run homer in first cut 4-0 lead to 4-2. 1 point.
May 18 vs. Colorado, two-run homer in sixth made 1-0 deficit 2-1 lead. 1.25 points.
May 28 vs. Kansas City, solo homer in 10th broke 8-8 tie, made 9-8 lead. 1.5 points.
May 30 vs. Yankees, solo homer in 8th cut 6-4 deficit to 6-5. 1.25 points.
June 17 vs. Washington, 2-run homer in 6th made 1-0 deficit 2-1 lead. 1.25 points.
June 26 vs. San Diego, 2-run homer in 4th cut 3-0 deficit to 3-2. 1 point.
July 9 vs. Boston, 2-run homer in 1st made 1-0 lead 3-0. 1 point.
July 10 vs. Detroit, solo homer in 11th made 6-6 tie 7-6 lead. 1.5 points.
July 19 vs. Texas, 2-run homer in 6th made 10-2 lead 12-2. 0 points.
July 25 vs. Cleveland, 2-run homer in 9th cut 5-2 deficit to 5-4. 1.25 points.
July 28 vs. White Sox, 2-run homer in 3rd made 2-0 lead 4-0. 1 point.
July 31 vs. White Sox, 3-run homer in 5th made 4-0 deficit 4-3. 1 point.
Aug. 17 vs. Seattle, solo homer in 6th made 8-4 lead 9-4. 0 points.
Summary: 19 home runs; 18.5 meaningful home run points; index: .974.
28 Responses to "Meaningful Home Run Index: A-Rod vs. Morneau"
Either the prep season really needs to start, or you need to have a child. Or maybe both.
I’m feeling a major presentation at the next SABR convention is in order!
Did you devise this entire post just to give me an aneurysm? My heart rate is running at about 150 right now.
Damn you, Rand. Damn you. I refuse to justify this post with a response.
AZGG: the season is upon us. Have no fear.
Have the guys at FireJoeMorgan seen this yet?
Brandon - we are going to start a collection to fly Joe Posnanski here, drive him and the GBRT crew to a central point, and then have the former beat the crap out of the latter with a sock full of pennies.
It’s the only solution I can think of.
Jon (and anyone else who’d like to help), if you can get them to an undisclosed location, I’ll take care of the penny-sock beating.
GBRT guys, be honest: exactly how much peyote was ingested on this road trip?
Set your calculators to MATHS.
Someone get Elias, Ken Tremendous & Gleeman on the horn…
Brandon: Ha. All we had was a bunch of small, spineless cacti. Shows what you know.
Just because we took a bunch of arbitrary numbers and made a formula doesn’t mean they aren’t facts.
A-Rod Homer Log:
(n.)The result of a Yankee fan’s long night of drinking the champagne of beers.
Here are the numbers: A-Rod is a great hitter in all situations. Morneau is (this year) a terrible hitter in blowouts. That’s your difference.
(all stats 2008 stats)
MARGIN / MORNEAU OPS / A-ROD OPS
Tie game / .782 / .907
Within 1 run / .822 / .869
Within 2 runs / .872 / .880
Within 3 runs / .900 / .922
Within 4 runs / .942 / .924
>4-run game / .662 / 1.375
roughkat- you mean these kinds of Maths?
Also, one note on those numbers: the final split (where the margin is >4) is based, for both guys, on a far smaller sample size than the rest of the splits: 76 plate appearances for Morneau, 62 for A-Rod.
Grady Sizemore:
3/31, 2nd inning, up two, 1
4/24, 5th inning, up five, 0
4/30, 1st inning, tied, 1.25
5/3, 5th inning, up 1, 1
5/10, 1st inning, tied, 1.25
5/10, 5th inning, up 9, 0
5/14, 1st inning, tied, 1.25
5/23, 3rd inning, down 8, 0
5/30, 1st inning, tied, 1.25
5/30, 5th inning, down 3, two run shot, 1
6/1, 8th inning, down 6, 0
6/4, 4th inning, down 1, 1.25
6/11, 7th inning, down 4, three run shot, 1.25
6/12, 4th inning, up six, 0
6/13, 1st inning, tied, 1.25
6/13, 7th inning, up one, two run shot, 1.25
6/15, 7th inning, up two, 1
6/27, 5th inning, tied, 1.25
6/29, 6th inning, down five, 0
7/2, 6th inning, tied, 1.25
7/2, 9th inning, down 1, 1.5
7/5, 2nd inning, tied, 1.25 (fasolamatt and C-Dog in attendance)
7/12, 2nd inning, up 2, 1
7/22, 1st inning, tied, 1.25
7/23, 8th inning, down seven, 0
7/30, 2nd inning, up two, 1
7/31, 5th inning, tied, 1.25
8/19, 6th inning, up one, 1
=.883, less than Morneau, more than A-Rod.
I’ve got a new project for you. Can you calculate a Meaningful Walk index? I’m specifically concerned that Brad Penny’s walks come in much more dangerous situations than Vicente Padilla. Can you devise a statistic to prove this? I’m thinking calculating all walks they give up in the 6th-9th innings when the scored is either tied or within a run, and assigning a point to ea—
I’m sorry, I couldn’t get through that with a straight face. Never mind.
same number of homeruns as A-Rod for a lousy team
No, wait, he hit #29 for zero points this afternoon. Crap.
fasolamatt > jon + brandon
What kind of selfish, arrogant jerk hits a zero-point home run? Jeter for MVP.
A-Rod career, RISP, two outs: .273 BA, .890 OPS; close and late: .279 BA, .906 OPS. A-Rod career, up by 4 or more runs: .311 BA, .958 OPS.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=rodrial01
Hootie - precisely.
Just as Olympic gymnastics scoring is taking more into account level of difficulty, maybe Rand’s point system could do the same.
Example: A-Rod hits after noted power hitter Bobby Abreu and before noted power hitter Jason Giambi.
A couple days ago, Morneau was hitting after noted power hitter Joe Mauer and before noted Home Run Derby candidate Mike Lamb.
I’m not saying, I’m just saying…
Adam Everett:
5/11, 2nd inning, up 3, 0
8/11, 2nd inning, tied, 1.25
Summary: 2 home runs; meaningful home run points: 1.25. Meaningful home run index: .625
Slightly belo A-Rod, also important to note Everett hit all his home runs on the 11th day and in the 2nd inning. So if he starts Sept 11th you count on him getting a home run in the 2nd.
I like the concept, but here is how this should be calculated:
((HR in meaningful situations)/(Total HR)) - ((Plate Appearances in meaningful situations)/(Total Plate Appearances))
In other words:
(% of HR that are meaningful) - (% of Plate Appearances that are meaningful)
If a player faces a meaningful situation 40% of the time, the law of averages would tell you that 40% of their home runs should be meaningful. This player would have a meaningful HR index of 0. This is the standard, the overall average. If a player faces a meaningful situation 40% of the time, but 50% of their home runs are meaningful, that gives them an index of .100. The higher in the positive direction, the better a player is in the meaningful HR department. A negative number is bad, obviously.
Not a chance I’m actually going to do the research and figure out numbers, but this is how you should measure meaningful home runs.
Michael Rand says: A-Rod career, RISP, two outs: .273 BA, .890 OPS; close and late: .279 BA, .906 OPS. A-Rod career, up by 4 or more runs: .311 BA, .958 OPS.
Add to that:
A-Rod career
Tie game: .974 OPS
1 run or closer game: .982 OPS
2 run or closer game: .955 OPS
3 run or closer game: .968 OPS
4 run or closer game: .970 OPS
5 run or more game: .958 OPS
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=rodrial01#situa-clutc
Jon, you should know that I only use stats that are in my favor.
ajax, interesting twist. I like the thought.
merx, a humorous +1.
This whole thing just makes me sad.
