And out of “retirement”: Bill Simmons
Posted on September 4th, 2008 – 1:30 PMBy Michael Rand
The Sports Guy gets back into the writing fold after a summer of podcasting and nothing else. As promised, the column comes right before the start of the NFL regular season. As expected, the words “Vegas,” “Swingers” and “blackjack” are among the first to grace the page. (Hey, there isn’t a Sports Guy column generator for nothing). And he takes to task those automatic continuous shuffle machines that almost ruined Vegas.
And so we learned to despise the ugly black contraptions. Maybe we weren’t counting cards like the MIT guys from “Bringing Down The House,” but still, blackjack is all about runs, right? You have something like a 44 percent chance of winning each hand. If you’re ripping off a marathon blackjack session, you aren’t winning money unless you “up” your wagers during those few inevitable good waves … and how do you know when you’re hitting a hot streak when every hand is arbitrary?
Thank you. Agreed, those machines are evil.
So, a couple of things:
1) Love him, hate him, or like him but used to love him, it feels nice to have Simmons back in the mix.
2) Simmons, in the midst of his NFL predictions, writes that he doesn’t think the Vikings are going to make the playoffs. He has legitimate reasons. Discuss.
3) Automatic shuffling machines are among the joy-suckers in life. What are some others?
26 Responses to "And out of “retirement”: Bill Simmons"
and how do you know when you’re hitting a hot streak when every hand is arbitrary?
Wait, I wanted to know the answer to this question. Do I have to read his article?
Also, please clarify this phrase for joker:
the joy-suckers in life. What are some others?
Not a card player, so I have to ask, aren’t all hands arbitrary? Isn’t that the point?
1) Oh how I miss the days of the Celtics, Red Sox, and Patriots pulling up the rear. His gloating is unbearable.
2)No link to the article so I am going to assume the awesomeness of the Bears is not a reason they don’t make the playoffs
3) In-laws, taxes, and Creed.
jama: meant to link. It’s there now.
brandon: in a 6 or 8 deck shoe, there are runs of low and high cards that change the percentages for future hands, thus improving or worsening your odds. Also, there is an undeniable vibe that happens at a table when hot hands are pouring out; it’s visceral and intangible, much like proving A-Rod doesn’t hit clutch home runs USED TO BE.
Brandon, I imagine it’s all lies that the gambling-addled tell themselves.
But it’s possible that whereas “natural” shuffling means that cards played are held out of the next hand until the “shuffling break” when all cards are reincorporated, “automatic” shuffling could mean that every time the dealer puts cards back, those cards are entered back into the shuffling mix. Thus, automatically shuffled cards are more arbitrary than manually shuffled cards, because the cards that were just played are also included.
But really think it’s all just a mental hangup. And as a non-gambler myself, I don’t even know if those automatic shufflers do that, and I’m sure that more people would protest if they did.
“Used to be,” like, before I ruined all the fun with Jon’s and my “numbers” and “facts” and “logic”? Or dd you mean “used to be” as in, until your invented statistic made it tangible?
Please clarify, knowing that your answer could directly result in my head exploding.
the latter … but in jest, as always.
1) Bill Simmons hates Minnesota. He basically treats us as the farm team for Boston, which it kind of is, but but he’s such an arrogant [redacted] about it. And he’s basically a disarmingly cheerful version of his friend Belichik.
2)See #1.
3)
3)Bill Simmons, Rick Reilly, Pat Reusse.
“I’m muting this game,” TSG says in his prediction for Vikings-Packers on Monday. How I wish it were that simple.
There’s no way I can watch this game at home. I need the noise of a bar… I need the distractions… from having to listen to the commentary.
Hey, the Sports Gal likes the Vikes this week. That’s all that really matters, right?
1) I fall squarely in the “Used to Love Him…Currently Unsure” camp. I hesitated a little bit before reading it. Kind of like if a girl dumps you, but then wants to come back - you claim you’re not interested because of how she treated you, but at the same time you hate yourself a little more for knowing you’ll be back together within the day.
Still, it feels a little more like football season with his picks column back in my life. For better or worse.
2) Simmons’ predictions have been aweful recently. I’d rather have him reverse-jinxing the Vikings than piling onto the bandwagon with other “experts” (Seifert not included; last spotted in green & yellow discussing politics with P3).
Plus, The Sports Gal ALWAYS seems to pick the Vikes, which I put more stock in these days anyway…
3) Jesse Crain, Craig Breslow, Boof Bonser, Denys Reyes, et al
3) Jesse Crain, Wedding Planning, Gopher Football Collapses, Brian Bass, Crying Babies, Political Conventions, Town Hall running out of one of my favorites, reminders of the 1998 NFC Championship, Jan Ganglehoff, adulthood, full-time jobs…
Simmons’ predictions #7 and #8 are in direct contradiction of each other. The Packers can get to the Super Bowl with a “below average QB” but the Vikings can’t? I’m confused. How is the Packers supporting cast so dramatically different? I’d actually like an explanation.
I don’t consider myself a huge homer for the Vikings, so I’m totally willing to admit that they’ll very likely suck this year, but I don’t see how the Packers don’t also fall into that camp.
Jesse Crain, Wedding Planning
Oh so very, very true.
Dave
My guess is, and this is just a guess, he thinks the Packers WR’s and RB combo is better than the Vikes and that the Packers have a better overall defense. Both points are debatable.
Jama: Fair enough. It’s all going to come down to injuries anyway. It always does.
The Hootie: Thanks for the commiseration.
Like Deadon, I suppose I’d rather (*gulp*) have Simmons picking against the Vikes. Peter King is annoyingly high on them this year, and he seems to always be incredibly wrong.
Crap. I mis-typed. That should have read “Like Deacon” with a “C”. Must be the splint on my broken finger causing typing troubles again.
Peter King also somehow didn’t mention Favray in his column this week. I was appalled. Such disrespect. This man is going to lead the New York Jets football squadron this year and he can’t even muster a few words of support?
Dave- How long until the wedding?
We started with 13. I managed to put off MOST of my hard work until the last month and a half, but that month and a half sucked. Best part of the wedding- the reception. Next best part- realizing it’s done. (Until you remember the thank-yous.)
Should I run into you at THB, you’ve got a round on me.
Yep, I think we have about 12 months left..ugh
I get the feeling the first part is the most miserable though… It can’t get worse, can it?
I’m sure I’ll be around THB over the next couple days. Twins games and all.
It sucks at first because you have to make a bunch of decisions. Then it gets easy for a while. Then you have to get invitations out. Keep track of responses. Get info out to wedding party, family, etc… Organize things w/ the church. And the reception site. And the caterer, and baker, and photographer… It goes on.
We had the added stress of making custom decorations for the tables. (Twins cups, filled w/ peanuts, cracker jacks, baseball looking mints, and pennants as table numbers.) Get little things that can be done early out of the way early!
We’re not doing any of that crazy crap like making favors…
I don’t plan on completely losing my mind, besides all of that stuff gets expensive
Although, I’ll admit, your crazy crap sounds like it was cool.
We actually did it on a pretty tight budget. It just means doing every [redacted] thing yourself.
And making an ass of yourself by staying after Twins games to collect cups.
Look honey, we don’t need stemware…we can drink cabernet out of the Twins cups!
