TCTOD: MVT — Mauer or Morneau?
Posted on September 24th, 2008 – 2:00 PMBy Michael Rand
Jama’s off-topic meandering lead us right into The Commenter Talker Of the Day: Who is the Most Valuable Twin this year — Justin Morneau or Joe Mauer. Follow-up: If the Twins manager to win the division, should one (or both) be considered a frontrunner for AL MVP. The case for each is strong: Mauer is leading the league in hitting and could win his second batting title in three years. And despite all the folks who complain about his days off, Mauer has caught the second-most games in the AL this year. Morneau, of course, has 50 more RBI than any other teammate and has not had a day off all year. We side with the Canada Crusher, but we’re willing to listen to arguments.
Also: The Twins are third in the league in runs scored. Crazy, huh?
Finally: What would people think of an Oct. 6 Redactular? Find some place to watch the MNF game between Vikings and Saints?
57 Responses to "TCTOD: MVT — Mauer or Morneau?"
Morneau.
Not even close.
I agree with the Canuck but it is much closer than people think. Mauer has officially swayed me. He is the best catcher in baseball right now, and it isn’t all that close.
How about November the 9th instead ….against the Pack at Gabes in St. Paul…most interesting indeed that would be..I could meet the boyz. I’ll have to bring my own gang. Metal detectors, of course, and only speech in full sentences allowed
“The Twins are third in the league in runs scored. Crazy, huh?”
Didn’t you mean last in runs allowed by the bullpen?
What are the possible locations Oct. 6th?
Binghamton?
Mauer, just barely. He’s almost as good offensively while playing a much tougher position. You could’ve found a relatively decent first baseman if Morneau went down, but if Mauer were to get hurt our season would’ve taken a nosedive. That is the very essence of ‘valuable.’
Category: Winner.
Hitting: Morneau. He has a higher OPS, with less protection behind him in the order.
Fielding: Mauer. They are both above average, but Mauer could be considered.
Clutchiness: Morneau. He has a league-leading .788 GRIT+ rating, which I just made up.
Value Over In-House Replacement: Morneau. There is a wider gap between Morneau-Buscher/Jones/Ruiz/Whoever than Mauer-Redmond. Maybe a relatively decent first baseman would have been available if Morneau went down, but the Twins would not have signed him.
Clubhouse Leadership: Tie. I don’t picture either of them punching the buzzcut arch-rival in a bar fight, like Scott Bakula in Necessary Roughness.
Overall: Morneau. He is more valuable. He is responsible for more wins this season than Mauer, in my opinion.
Wrong again, Brandon (assuming you have, in fact, been wrong before). Morneau is the MVT.
He leads the team in GP, AB, H, 2B, HR, TB, SLG, and is second only to Mauer in Runs (by 1) and OBP (.416 to .380, which is still very strong).
Homerun and doubles > singles and walks.
So there.
Oops, Morneau leads in RBI, too. By a TON.
Sass:
I have not been wrong before, not about baseball statistics, and I am NOT WRONG HERE EITHER. The statistics you cited do not address the fact that Mauer is playing a position in which offensive prowess is tough to come by. He’s the best catcher in the game. Morneau is like the fourth-best first baseman.
Clarence:
Redmond is OPSing .655, which is terrible. Whoever would’ve taken over for Morneau - and let’s assume the Buscher/Ruiz combo just for fun, would’ve been much, much better. You’re right that Value Over In-House Replacement is an important factor, but wrong in who deserved the crown. Mauer all the way.
LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-BRANDON-IS-FLAPPING-HIS-GUMS-BUT-I-AM-NOT-LISTENING-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA
Sass: That is actually a pretty dead-on impression of everyone I’ve ever known.
that entire exchange was entertaining.
There is a stat called VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) that I didn’t have to make up. Brandon is actually right about that.
Mauer- 54.4
Morneau- 50.8
The reason that Mauer is higher is because there are so many crappy catchers and so many good 1B. That being said I don’t listen to stats and I go with Morneau.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204031
Mauer is less valuable because he’s Minnesota nice and probably gives his real number to girls on the road. Morneau doesn’t forget the rule: Fake name, fake number.
MVT = Morneau. Why? The Batting Stance Guy’s impression of him was funnier than the impression of Mauer. And, you know, because he is a better player and stuff.
October 6th Redactular with AZGG in attendance? I sure hope mom will agree to drop me off and pick me up a couple of blocks away from the Redactular location…
I was also informed last night at the game that 93x spoofed the Black Eyed Peas to create “Let’s Get Denarded”
Now, I can’t help but say that every time he leads off.
Ty: I disagree about the Batting Stance Guy impression thing. His 2008 All Stars video impression of Mauer was far better than his Morneau.
You know what else I don’t like about Mauer? The lame bobblehead of him that they gave out his first season.
I’m going to de-nard each of you pricks for not listening to my stat geek proclamations. You’ve been warned.
Morneau.
No wait, Mauer.
No, it should be Morneau.
Mauer defintetly Mauer.
Can’t decided, can we just give the MVT to both the M&M Boys.
Let’s get down to the thing that really matters. Who would you rather go have a beer with?
Morneau wins easily. For one he has more money than Joe now so he can buy more rounds, and two you know he can drink that pansy Mauer under the table with his Canadian tolerance.
Come on, if Jason Bartlett is the Most Valuable Ray, then we all know that Nicky Punto is the Most Valuable Twin. I mean, look at that hustle last night on the squeeze play. He dove headfirst! Just give it to him…
It’s obvious that Punto is the MVT. He leads in headfirst dives into first base, hustle, and grimaces after rally-killing groundouts.
Dave, that was kind of scary.
I change my vote to Morneau, thanx for the help jama.
Brandon, Morneau is so much clutchier than Mauer. Mauer gets on base all the time, but he can’t hit himself in…I mean, seriously, is that so much to ask?
Dave, that was kind of scary.
Terrifying. Apparently, Nick Punto powered up his mind control device at precisely 3:17 p.m. on Wednesday, September 24.
That is the very essence of ‘valuable.’
If you could bottle up his sweat and sell it in boutiques, it’d be called “Eau de valeur”
crap
I could have sworn I closed the tag.
FAIL INTERNETS
By the way, Plaxico is now not playing the next 2 weeks. I guess going to practice is now required in NY. I hope we hear another Practice… Practice press conference.
Joe Mauer went to a dance in Highschool with a girl that might or might not have worked in my office. She’s 5′4″ has a giant [redacted], a small set of [redacted], and a laugh that would shatter bullet proof glass. Almost forgot…no personality what-so-ever. The sad part is that SHE broke it off with HIM.
Morneau is marrying Krista Martin
Morneau +1
I agree 100% with Brandon. As usual. And those of us who use facts in our arguments appear to be on the unpopular side. (Also as usual.)
Also, I’d like to cast a Crazy-Ass Columnist vote for Denard Span, using the usual Crazy Columnist logic of “You’d think I’d vote for one of the two best players on the team, but you’re wrong, and here’s 800 words on why you’re wrong, all of which comprises a pretty good way of filling space so that I can go home and take a nap.”
Also, I’d like to cast a Crazy-Ass Columnist Souhan Reusse Christensen LENIII vote for Denard Span, using the usual Crazy Columnist logic of “You’d think I’d vote for one of the two best players on the team, but you’re wrong, and here’s 800 words on why you’re wrong, all of which comprises a pretty good way of filling space so that I can go home and take a nap.”
Brandon-
I see what you are saying. But i’ll try to respond anyways. Playing an entire season with Redmond at catcher is far from ideal.
Redmond’s career OPS is .713. That is the exact same as Buscher’s career OPS, and only 20 points lower than Buscher’s OPS this season. I believe that if Redmond were playing more than once per week his OPS would progress closer to his career average (Maybe that is where we differ?). Ruiz’ OPS this season (albeit a small sample size) is .693. Redmond’s defense at catcher is much better than either Buscher or Ruiz at first base, and jama’s VORP statistics do not take defense into account. The dropoff from Mauer to Redmond, both offensively and defensively, is less than the dropoff from Morneau to Buscher/Ruiz.
As you stated, a replacement at first base would be much easier to find than a replacement at catcher. But I do not trust the Twins to find this player.
Now my fellow nerds and I will retire to the nerdery with our calculators.
Except LENIII would vote for Jeff Manship.
Jon and Brandon:
Morneau has a small edge in win shares (28-27). He also has a big edge in runs created (124-100). Mauer gets to have Morneau bat behind him. Morneau has had the Delmon/Kubel/Ruiz/anyone else thing. Mauer’s had a great year. Morneau’s is just better and more valuable.
also, have you seen Morneau’s Meaningful Home Run Index? Off the charts!
I think Mauer has to get it cause look what they did last year. Morneau was pretty decent and Mauer was not. This year Mauer = good, Twins in race.
Also, does Gardy get Manager of the Year for getting his club this close?
Mike -
Mauer has 27 Win Shares, tops among MLB catchers. The next-best catcher, Geovanny Soto, has 22. Nobody else has more than 20.
Morneau has 28 WS; that’s third in the league behind Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman. There’s three other guys that have 20 or more.
The point we’re trying to make is that Mauer’s 27 WS are more valuable than Morneau’s 28 WS, because Mauer’s far and away the most valuable catcher in the league, whereas Morneau is not the most valuable 1B in the league.
newbie, there’s no way that Joe Maddon doesn’t get the award this year. Anything else would be a crime.
The same logic works for runs created: Mauer has 32 more than the next-best AL catcher (Kurt Suzuki), while there are three other 1B in the AL that are within 32 of Morneau (including Kevin Youkilis, who’s created 118 - and has 24 Win Shares, in case you were wondering).
Jon, fair points. But I don’t know if the positional logic extends to players from different positions on the same team. Yes, there are players who are close to Morneau in those stats. But the Twins don’t have those players. They have Morneau. And because of his numbers, I give him the edge. Not a huge one, but a slight one.
If we have the Redactular on the 6th, will wheelchairs be provided for those that ran the TC Marathon the day before?
This choice between Mauer and Morneau is tough. Mauer has great sideburns but Morneau is playing despite being Canadian. So it’s pretty much a push. They should have a Jimmy Johns eating contest to decide it.
Morneau, because I have his jersey. Can’t use real stats on this one, folks.
Mike -
Okay, let’s look at positions within the team. Mauer has created 6.91 runs per 27 outs. Mike Redmond, his backup, has created 3.51.
Over at first base, Moneau has created 6.86 runs per 27 outs. If they replaced him, they could perhaps put Brian Buscher (4.71 RC/27) over there, or Randy Ruiz (4.39), or - heck - even Nick Punto (4.50). If Michael Cuddyer hadn’t gotten hurt, his numbers (4.23) might have looked okay over there. Brendan Harris (4.14) could have filled in, in a pinch.
But not only would all of those replacements been more valuable than Redmond for Mauer, here’s the kicker - not one of those guys could play catcher every day. All of them could have been passable at first base.
THAT’S why Mauer is more valuable than Morneau.
Ssshhh… hear that?
That’s me opening a bottle of Tylenol.
You can’t use Mauer’s defense to justify his increased value and then only use offensive numbers to define Redmond’s value. The dropoff defensively from Mauer to Redmond is less than the dropoff from Morneau to Buscher/Ruiz.
And if Redmond had more at bats (like last year), his numbers would progress closer to his career average, which are not far from Buscher’s and Ruiz’ numbers. Isn’t that the theory that most baseball stat heads subscribe to?
Shapoopy.
CS - It seems to me fair to use offensive arguments to compare the two, given that this is what the Morneau backers base their decisions on.
But: Mauer is an above-average defensive catcher, while Morneau is an average defensive first baseman. Redmond is an average defensive catcher, while any of the guys I mentioned would likely be somewhat below average at first base. I don’t know that the dropoff is necessarily greater from Morneau to, say, Buscher than the drop-off from Mauer to Redmond.
That should read that Redmond is a “somewhat above-average defensive catcher.” Didn’t mean to slight the Red Dog there.
Ok, Jon, I can see that.
I’m going to de-nard the next person who uses “M&M boys” to refer to Mauer and Morneau–ERRRR, Morneau and Mauer. It’s just so … geigh.
I’d give a slight edge in this one to Mauer based on the way he’s worked this young pitching staff into all 10+ winners. NOBODY saw this staff doing anything at the beginning of the year. Morneau had the year we all expected from a previous MVP.
FARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRT
