Monday (strategy vs. outcome) edition: Wha’ Happened?
Posted on November 3rd, 2008 – 9:42 AMBy Michael Rand
There are two kinds of people in this world: those who think our Paulie Bleeker costume had shorts that were too short, and those who think they were just fine. And there are another two kinds of people in this world: those who criticize strategies, and those who criticize outcomes. Shrewd sports fans criticize strategies before they play out; lazy sports fans criticize outcomes after they happen; most sports fans are somewhere in between, doing a little of both and sometimes claiming they knew the strategy was doomed all along when really they are lashing out at an unhappy outcome. Sometimes, of course, a strategy is so inherently flawed that even as it is being put into play, 100 percent of fans are screaming, “No! No! What are they doing?!? What the [redacted] do they think they’re doing!” This was common while watching Vikings games from 2002-2005.
But sometimes you get a situation where you have to separate strategy from outcome. And that’s what makes you a better class of fan. Case in point: Saturday, Gophers vs. Northwestern, 17-17 tie late in the game. The Gophers have the ball in their own territory as time is winding down. Should they: A) Try to advance the ball to have a shot at a game-winning field goal or B) Sit on the ball and wait for overtime. We see it this way: Your overtime odds are a straight 50/50, pretty much. Your odds in trying to move the ball are about like this: 12 percent you will win the game on that drive, 2 percent something ridiculous will happen and the other team will win the game, 86 percent neither team will score and you’ll go to overtime anyway. In college football, when the clock stops at every first down, it doesn’t take long to move 40 yards. It was the right move. Being aggressive was the higher-percentage play. It just didn’t work out. Sometimes the 2 percent happens. (And please don’t use the argument that because bad stuff always happens to the Gophers, they shouldn’t put themselves in that situation. That’s nonsense. And please do not be one of those people who criticizes every negative play and would have complained just as hard if the Gophers had sat on the ball and then lost in overtime. That just gives sports fans everywhere a bad name).
Sometimes good ideas do not work. And they do not become bad ideas simply because they failed. Remember that and you will be a better fan and a more well-rounded human being. Even if you’re rocking “The Humpty Dance” on karaoke while wearing short shorts.
Just a quick thought: there is a very good chance Brooks Bollinger and Tyler Thigpen will be starting NFL quarterbacks next weekend, while Tarvaris Jackson will not be.
Fasola-link! Blocking cell phone signals.
45 Responses to "Monday (strategy vs. outcome) edition: Wha’ Happened?"
I for one liked the idea of going for it, it is a shame that it turned out the way it did, but anyone that has followed Gophers football could have seen this loss coming.
It is similar to the Vikings winning just enough to elicit interest and hope only to dash our hearts against the rocky shore of desolation.
I would have been fine with overtime… but I’m also the guy who wanted to kick a field goal and go to OT at the end of the Northern Illinois game.
Overall: c’est la vie. These things happen, and after watching the Gophs eke out three straight “how’d that happen?” wins, a loss in the same way is only fair.
I am alive. Call off the search.
That was a rough game. The only one I’ll get to go to this year probably. The defense came out really flat in the 1st quarter, which didn’t help anything.
I was hoping that they would go for overtime. When they had to start on their own 12 yard line with less than a minute, I thought they might get a couple shots downfield, but if they hadn’t made it to the 40 or so with about 20 seconds, I figured they should sit on it.
I was a little blown away by throwing it over the middle at that point. I was expecting sideline plays where a tip wouldn’t lead to disaster.
But the “2 percent chance” of a crazy thing happening definitely did. Decker had a sudden case of stonehands, one NW defensive back couldn’t catch the ball, and it bounced…wait for it…to their punt returner! Ta-dah! Game over. Tough loss.
We’ll see if Brewster’s any better than Mason, if he can keep this team from pathetically collapsing over the next three weeks.
Also, missing a 20 yard field goal is totally unacceptable (especially when you don’t even hit a crossbar or upright). High-schoolers make those kicks.
Lesson learned on Halloween Weekend:
Vacancy is a terrible piece of [redacted] of a horror movie.
Also, one of the bonus features is to be able to watch the snuff films from the movie. Ummm…no thanks. Seriously, if someone you were with wanted to watch those, wouldn’t it give you pause?
Personally, I think the shorts are not short enough for your character.
Who’s the bridesmaid/maiden fair and true?
AZGG: Actually, he’s just reminded of prom night this year when he stopped by Burger Time and all of the couples were out for their fancy dinner.
Nice work on the costume, Rand. You pulled it off frighteningly well.
Still- who does just straight karaoke anymore? Rock Band >>> karaoke.
Or his wedding night.
Or his wedding night!
AZGG: I commented on your comment before you even made it. I think the world is imploding…
Are people upset with what the Gophers tried to do? Don’t teams try to win games? It was unfortunate, but a learning moment for a young team.
Also, did anyone see New England go for 2 in the 3rd Quarter with the lead and miss it, and then Indy go for 2 in the 3rd quarter with the lead, and make it…?
Is that what good football teams do?
newbie: The only thing I’m upset with is the choice of play. I don’t mind if they’re aggressive, but you have to be smart about it, too. Throwing a pass over the middle in that situation doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense to me.
Kevin McHale says:
“the pants are neither short enough, nor green enough… And grow more armpit hair..”
Am I reading that right — The Humpy Dance? God bless you and your youthful exhuberance MR.
Just noticed it, but a grateful nation says “Thanks” for the nightmare fuel tag.
Rand
Were you tanning in your boxers again? Those thighs haven’t seen daylight since the infamous 1997 skinny dipping incident.
I see the Strib must have decided not to retain the IT guy who was responsible for notifying the staff of Day Ligth Savings Time.
This comment thread brought to you by the Space-Time Continuum. The Space-Time Continuum: See Where You’d Be Without Us?
jama: I just thought I had traveled into the future.
Stu sees puffy sleeves and a bow on the butt and is brought straight back to his high school prom.
Iverson is on his way to Detroit and Phillip Fullmer is giving Tennessee fans an early Christmas Present.
Dave
The play call was perfect. The execution was lacking. Had Decker caught that pass the Gophers would have had the ball at the 50 yard line with just under 30 seconds left. They spike the ball and only need 15 or 20 yards to attempt the game winning field goal.
These Randball columns apply extreme suction. StarTrib should save some money and end it.
UNIVERISTY OF TENNESSEE WANTS TIM BREWSTER AS NEW HEAD COACH
I have no problem with the strategy. With our o-line, we were going to have trouble moving 25 yards for a touchdown in overtime. Of course, with Monroe, even a field goal from 25 or less is an adventure.
I like going for it because it symbolizes the difference between brew and mase. Mason played not tolose example his last game coached and the Michigan collapse he went into a prevent defense that his players couldn’t execute and called plays on offense that were designed to kill the clock, but that doesn’t work when you keep going three and out. With Brew we were trying to win the game, against a team of even ability in a game that was back and forth, the stratagy worked against Northern, but sometimes it backfires like last week and last year against N.W when we went for two and missed. This coach is a fighter and his playcalling shows that he believes in his boys, which means they will be confident and hungury in their next game, if you listen to Weber and Decker they want to shut up the critics and attitude reflects leadership, so it will carry on down to the rest of the team.
DaveMN-I’m not sure I totally agree with you about not throwing it across the middle. I consider a pass to the flats to be higher risk because if Weber throws it late or throws it behind the receiver the DB takes it to the end zone without needing a block (like Simmons did earlier in the game). A pass to the middle of the field has a lower probability of being returned for a TD. However, regardless, there are routes that go inside and routes that go outside on the same play and the one that was open–you can’t argue that Decker didn’t have a chance to catch that ball–was in the middle of the field.
grunkiejr: I don’t know that I’d want a pass in the flats. I was expecting downfield throws, just not right down the center of the field. I guess I thought they’d try to use the sidelines a little more. That way, if something unfortunate were to happen (interception), there’d be much less room for a defensive player to maneuver himself down the field, or the throw would just be out of bounds.
Like I said, I like the aggressiveness, it is a change from the old teams. I guess I just hoped that, since they were pinned back in their own end, they’d be a little more cautious with so little time on the clock.
Oh yeah, and Decker totally should have caught that ball. It was a temporary case of stonehands.
doo doo happens
Typical Gophers loss after they play a lollipop schedule in pre Big Ten opponents. They get everyone excited and then lose in the most bone headed of ways. You could have timed the guy with a calendar who intercepted the pass and ran it back for a touchdown. What a stupid way to lose.
I’d rather see a team that won only a single game last season playing to win, than see them acting like they think they could have won it overtime. No, I don’t like the interception, but next week against Michigan, I’d like to have Decker thrown to ten times. The Gophers aren’t good, but they’re not acting like they’re good–they were trying to win it when they could.
Nice to hear this take on the game. I had TiVoed it and then someone told me - “you are not going to like the outcome.” Awwhhh, I hate that. Anyways, even as I knew something bad was going to happen, I still liked the way the Gophers played hard and had that game won on a day when they were obviously flat. Missed FG was a tough one. It was certainly a 2% play. I liked the agressiveness and I don’t think this team’s spirit is at all broken. They’ll continue to play good football.
I’m not necessarily disagreeing w/ Brewster’s decision, but there is a huge flaw in your logic when you say that “2% chance something ridiculous will happen.” 2% is 1 in 50. You can’t tell me there’s only a 1 in 50 chance something bad will happen (namely, a turnover in our own territory) when we’re sitting on our own 10 yard line, with Decker barely able to run, facing a defense we hadn’t scored against in the second half. There was at least a 10% chance, perhaps a bit more, of a turnover deep in our territory.
Given our lack of running game and suspect kicker, I can’t blame Brewster for trying to avoid OT. But don’t say he was just playing the good odds.
I liked the strategy..just not the play called…NW had four defenders covering the intended receiver…the play had little to no chance of succeeding…NW knew the ball was going to Decker…way way too predictable. I was expecting something much more deceptive. I am very disappointed in the OC’s lack of imagination given the situation. Big mistake that cost them a chance for victory.
Where did you get those silly numbers? With no running game at all, with Decker injured and the O line being a total mess, those numbers seem to be silly.
Not going for it would remind me too much of the Vikings taking the knee at the end of the second with 3 time outs and 1:00 left against Atlanta in 1998: play not to lose. I think the play calling was poor, but separating that from the decision to go for it, the Gophs made the right call.
This brewster lost anoter Big Ten game. He is 3-10 in Big Ten games. Sooner rather than later this brewster’s so-called nation will be calling for his head because he is not winning enought Big Ten games. I have hears one brewster backer say that under 40% Big Ten wins at the 5 year mark would get this brewster run out of town on a rail…or…at least very fired. If he wins 3 Big Ten games this season, and three the remaining seasons until his fifth he would be 15-25 in Big ten play. That would be less than 40% wins wouldn’t it. This brewster should have won that NU game to get his 4th Big Ten win. Now he needs to be certain that he doesn’t go 0-3 in the three remaining Big Ten games in 2008. A four game Big Ten losing streak after starting 3-1 in Big Ten play in 2008 wouldn’t be very good for him…
Did anyone mention the intangible against us: a lack luster crowd in a drabby, unhomely stadium. The MetroGNOME has killed the U for decades. If TCF was around in 1999, then the U would’ve won the BT!
Coach Brewster needs to bench his ego and, in those moments when games can go one way or the other, prove his mettle as a smart coach. This game could only be lost in regulation; the Gophers’ only chance to win was in overtime.
Aren’t those gopher track shorts?
Just curious…
You all have your comments
I think some of you have nothing better to do
Minnesotans are nothing but fair weather sports fans
When the wheels get a little shakey everyone whats to jump off
I like Brewster’s aggressiveness and optimism. Lets face it the Gophers have been down a long time and Brewster is what this team needs. I think the recruiting part of his ability has already improved the team greatly. You can actually see the teams overall speed and athleticism has improved from last year. And hopefully another solid group of recruits are coming as well. I think they will be competitive in all their remaining games this year and to finish with 8,9,or 10 wins really is a great accomplishment for this team and something to build on for next year with the new stadium coming. I think the Gopher football future is very bright for the first time in a very long time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I liked going for it when they first got the ball. But after the first three downs produced just 11 yards and took half the time off the clock, I thought for sure they would kneel and take it to overtime (especially for a team that struggles throwing deep). They were lucky to get the first down and not have to give it back to Northwestern so why tempt fate a second time. The time to be agressive was the fourth and goal from the three but I can’t fault going for the field goal. Regardless, it feels bad when a game like that slips away.
