Malcolm Gladwell writes about “the quarterback problem” in a recent issue of The New Yorker. He uses the 1999 NFL draft and current Missouri QB Chase Daniel as examples to set up a premise comparing the volatility of the QB projection business from college to pro to the difficulty in projecting which people will make good teachers (and we certainly know which problem is more important. Wink* It’s the QBs). Gladwell writes:

This is the quarterback problem. There are certain jobs where almost nothing you can learn about candidates before they start predicts how they’ll do once they’re hired. So how do we know whom to choose in cases like that? In recent years, a number of fields have begun to wrestle with this problem, but none with such profound social consequences as the profession of teaching.

We would like to spin this argument directly onto quarterback Tim Tebow. The young man threw for more than 200 yards and ran for more than 100 last night in leading Florida to a BCS title for the second time during his tenure. He won the Heisman last year and finished third this year, though he easily could have won again. He’s not ultra-quick, but he is big, physical and strong. He doesn’t throw lasers, but he is generally pretty accurate. He often works out of a strange formation, but it’s one that is catching on in the NFL. And for all this, he is projected as a likely 2nd or 3rd round pick of he comes out in the NFL draft. The QB he defeated — Sam Bradford — as well as Georgia’s Matthew Stafford project as first-round cinches. Such information tends to stun casual fans; the more hard-core ones, though, already know how the “measurables” game works. It’s the maddening part of the college-to-pro game that credits raw size, speed, shuttle run times, vertical leaps and other feats of freakishly raw ability over things like touchdowns and leadership. Which is more important? Well, take a look a this list of starting QBs in 2008. There are first-round hits (Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger), first-rounders with plenty of work to be done (Vince Young, JaMarcus Russell) and a ton of QBs from the 2nd round (Brett Favre) all the way to undrafted free agent (Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner). Tom Brady and Matt Cassell were late-round picks. There are countless QBs without rocket arms who have played long, great careers. Bottom line: Projections can be pretty meaningless. If Tim Tebow was staring a team in the face late in the second round or in the third round, we have to think grabbing him wouldn’t be a bad idea. Then again, we could be wrong.

Slipping to the NBA quickly, remember when Darius Miles was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2000 draft? A freakish athlete. He looked like a slightly shorter KG out there … in short bursts. A tantalizing but ultimately non-descript career took a sharp detour in 2006 when he had microfracture surgery on his knee. He’s attempted to make a comeback this year and has been released by the Celtics and the Grizzlies (his last game was against the Wolves a few days ago). Well, Portland has issued a rather interesting and foolish statement regarding Mr. Miles. Have a look-see:

“The Portland Trail Blazers are aware that certain teams may be contemplating signing Darius Miles to a contract for the purpose of adversely impacting the Portland Trail Blazers Salary Cap and tax positions. Such conduct from a team would violate its fiduciary duty as an NBA joint venturer. In addition, persons or entities involved in such conduct may be individually liable to the Portland Trail Blazers for tortuously interfering with the Portland Trail Blazers’ contract rights and perspective economic opportunities. Please be aware that if a team engages in such conduct, the Portland Trail Blazers will take all necessary steps to safeguard its rights, including, without limitation, litigation.”

If Miles plays two more games this season, the $9 million he is owed this season and next season will count against the Blazers’ cap and push them into millions of dollars in luxury taxes. Threats are one way, we guess, to get out from a bad contract and bad luck. But we don’t think they have much ground to stand on.

Fasola-link! The only thing that could improve squirrel? Bacon.

This entry was posted on Friday, January 9th, 2009 at 9:37 am and is filed under Main. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.