Friday (worth another look) edition: Wha’ Happened?
Posted on January 23rd, 2009 – 8:30 AMBy Michael Rand
Sometimes fans or teams make snap judgments, and often those initial perceptions stick. Let’s go through an exercise today in taking another look at a few situations:
In case you didn’t notice, the Kevin Love/O.J. Mayo gap is shrinking. The Grizzlies are 2-15 in their past 17 games, just fired their head coach and now, indeed, have a worse record than the Wolves (11-30 vs. 13-27) after losing twice to the Pups. The considerable cooling of O.J. Mayo has played a role in that cooling off. Mayo was shooting a robust 46.7 percent from the field before the Grizzlies went into that tailspin. He was being hailed as the top rookie of the year candidate. He averaged 23.1 ppg in November. That cooled to 18.1 ppg in the first seven games of December, but the Grizzlies still won five of those games partly because he was still shooting straight and getting those points without jacking up too many shots 46-for-96, 47.9 percent). Since the losing has begun, however, Mayo’s numbers have fallen considerably. He’s shooting just 40.6 percent in his past 17 games and is averaging just 16.3 ppg in January. A rookie in a slump? Perhaps. A cooling off period after an overachieving hot start he couldn’t sustain? A league starting to figure him out? Perhaps.
But it’s worth noting that Love started perking up right about the time Mayo started falling down. Indeed, in January when Minnesota has won seven of nine games, Love is averaging 11.4 ppg and 10.4 rebounds despite playing an average of just 23.1 minutes. The overall raw numbers between he and Mayo are hard to compare because Mayo still averages 15 more minutes per game. But one reasonably fair measure is John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating stat. Love is fourth among rookies at 16.45, while Mayo is 11th at 15.52. In short, both players have been about what we thought they were. This is not Brandon Roy/Randy Foye redux (though that gap is also shrinking … but we’ll pick our battles today), particularly when considering the trade as a whole.
*Flip Saunders won an average of 59 games during the regular season in three tries with Detroit. This year’s squad is, at the midway point, on pace for 48 wins and a seed no better than fourth. If the Pistons were tired of losing in the conference finals (as Flip did in all three years there), they shouldn’t have to worry about that this year.
*Is Jeff Kent a Hall of Famer? That question has been bandied about lately, with Kent muddling through a retirement press conference yesterday. We guess it depends on your point of view. Playing primarily second base, Kent amassed some staggering numbers: 377 home runs, more than 1,500 RBI. He crushes Ryne Sandberg, a HOFer, in those categories and even batting average (.290 to .285). Sandberg, of course, was an excellent fielder while Kent was certainly not. In the “comparable player” part of Baseball Reference, Kent is paired with 10 players — five HOFers and five who are not. Three of the HOFers were catchers; one was Sandberg; the other was Jim Rice, who just made it in (and just barely) this year.
Finally, and fairly or not, we believe there is a sort of “sniff test” for the Hall. That is to say, what does your instinct tell you when you think of that player. This will probably drive Brandon crazy, but we believe it. And we say Kent fails that test. Not because he was surly. Just because he didn’t have that extra something to make him memorable. He’s a HOVG player. Hall Of Very Good.
*And perhaps we were a little premature in crowning the Gophers men’s hoops team.
Fasola-link! No more overhead wires on light rails?
31 Responses to "Friday (worth another look) edition: Wha’ Happened?"
Finally, and fairly or not, we believe there is a sort of “sniff test” for the Hall. That is to say, what does your instinct tell you when you think of that player. This will probably drive Brandon crazy,
Probably?
This is not a good start to the day.
* You forgot to mention how Love plays the same position as the Wolves best player who is only 24.
* The Pistons are now looking to the future instead of the present. Trading Billups for AI said as much.
* Isn’t an MVP something “memorable”? Can’t he at least get in for trying to fight Barry Bonds?
* Less turnovers and 3-point attempts would be nice.
Brandon definately fails the sniff test. As does Kent, neither will make their respective Hall of Fames. Kent for Baseball, Brandon for Perveyors of worthless stats and information. Go Brandon.
Re: Gopher’s hoops..That was very tough to watch. They would’ve shot a better percentage if their basket was not 3/4 the size of the one Purdue shot at.
With Sandberg being the litmus test for modern day second basemen in the hall then Kent definitely deserves to be there. Kent’s fight with Bonds should be worth at least 10 votes if you ask me.
And a bonus link: yes, it’s Bill Simmons, but it’s really good (and I’m a cat person): One final toss for The Dooze
Bob Knight needed to let go of his indignation about the “non-call” when the Purdue player got hurt. He tried to push off and separated his shoulder. Damian Johnson didn’t foul him.
But after it happened at the 4 minute mark, I think Knight mentioned it about 100,000 times (even when the game was completely in hand for Purdue).
Re: shoutout for Stu
Some day, we’ll all say to ourselves, “I used to know Stu before he hit it big.”
What was more of a failure, Bob Knight as an analyst or the guy who swore in Obama?
jama: Toonces is mad at your comment.
fasolamatt,
That Simmons column might have been one of his best ever. Also, his podcast with J.A. Adande was pretty good, because he actually let Adande talk, and that meant that we got some interesting insights. The best part was actually when Adande was talking about African-American culture and the impact on it by Obama. Odd that I’m complimenting Simmons twice in a week, but stranger things have happened.
Awwwwwwwww.
” Isn’t an MVP something “memorable”? Can’t he at least get in for trying to fight Barry Bonds?”
If you’re a career minor league player and you take a swing at Barry Bonds, you get into the hall of fame.
I just read that a streaker ran out on the court at the Australian Open. It was during a Venus and Serena Williams double match.
doubles match.
Jon
By “hit it big” do you mean a VHI reality series trying to find Stu a second wife/job/sobriety?
I am?
* I think the K-Love is not the easiest guy to judge, just becasue of what he does and doesn’t do. But I think he will be a long term fixture and won’t give the head coach headaches by shooting ill-advised shots. Its still early but I like him, aslo I like the fact that they got from under Marko’s contract thats always a plus.
*Owners are impatient and greedy especially in the NBA and NHL. How can a guy get canned like 30 games into a season, I think Flip is a good coach and will coach again soon.
Toonces:
I have just made a habit of writing that comment any time politics are mentioned, since you seemed so adverse the other day.
I don’t follow a ton of basketball, just cause I don’t have a lot of time. But is Kevin Love the type of player that can be a Superstar or at least a really great player? Or is he more of a he will be solid year in and year out type guy? Does Mayo have more of the makings of a Superstar?
Ah. Yeah, the other day was bad. The lovefest has died down, so my angst has too. At least a little.
I don’t follow a ton of basketball, just cause I don’t have a lot of time
How much time do you need when only the last 2 minutes of each game actually matter?
Dave, the last “2 minutes” of most basketball games usually last over 30 minutes of real time. I could have made 14 political and/or statistical comments by then, thereby pissing off Toonces and Brandon multiple times. You need to prioritize.
Did anyone else have a nightmare of Hugh Downs in a low cut, off the shoulder shirt leaning in front of you?
McCain/Palin 2012
That’s 1 pseudo-statistical/political comment every 2.142857 minutes.
That gives you a 7.319 Commenter Agitation Rating (CAR)
McCain/Palin 2012
I should be so lucky.
Great stories. Compelling and rich.
* RE: Mayo v. Love
Way too early for this debate (but, really, what else do we have to talk about??). Both play on stinky teams. Both possess powers that can easily be traced to their use of creative facial hair. And niether is under any kind of pressure. Let’s compare the two when one or both is contributing to his team’s newfound relevance (hopefully by 2012).
* RE: Sports Guy
I read SG’s “Dooze” column last night and I cried. I don’t read Mr. Simmons as much as I used to but there’s no doubt he hit a walk-off grand slam with that one.
* RE: Gophers
So glad I didn’t skip the gym for that.
* RE: Stu
Stu is the Kelly Leak of RandBallers: immensely talented, equally troubled, and extremely greasy.
* RE: Jeff Kent
Great fantasy 2B. Sexy come hither mustache. NOT a HOFer.
* RE: Flip
Joe Dumars isn’t looking so smart these days. Detroit’s window has closed and their Braves-like postseason resume in the 00s will be looked upon as disappointing considering how weak the Eastern Conference has been for much of the decade.
I’ll be sure not to read the Dooze column at work, so as not to get verklempt in front of clients/co-workers
the Dooze column was awesome. A slightly different angle for Simmons, however quite effective. Probably some of his best work.
As for the gophers, to quote our former coach, “They are who we thought they were….crown their [redacteds]”
