(Note from Howard: I’m getting away from the keyboard for a few days. Recently, I asked for some guest posts for us to read over the next couple of weeks and I received several interesting ones. Today’s is from  Andrew Bryz-Gornia, who explains: “I am going to be a junior at Gustavus Adolphus College. While my dream is to be a sportswriter, it appears that my future will be as a high school math teacher with a side of blogging.” Bryz-Gornia has taken a look back at the Twins’ off season relief options and played with the numbers, which means he’s on the right track for bringing math to the masses.Have a great holiday!)

By now, the Twins’ bullpen struggles have been well documented. Although they have been much better lately, many people feel that one or two more solid relievers would vastly improve the team. The signing of Luis Ayala in the offseason was not an ideal move for fans, but still a classic Twins, low risk/high reward signing. Many fans (myself included) were clamoring for someone like Juan Cruz, but as we approach the All-Star break, most of the names that were tied to the Twins in the offseason at first glance have been just as bad or worse than

Ayala. For curiosity’s sake, I will also include some former Twins that could have had an impact this season, Ayala as a comparison. You still want Russ Springer? Disclaimer: I will be using FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) as an evaluating tool. For those that are unfamiliar with FIP, go here. If a pitcher’s FIP is similar to his ERA, then he is performing at a level that should be expected of him.

Luis Ayala: 4.18 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.42 WHIP
Now that the rift between Ayala and Gardy has been publicized, it appears that Ayala was at fault. But can you blame him? All offseason, the Twins talk about needing a setup man. Ayala has a history of being a closer and setup man and is signed. After a few bad games, he is relegated to middle relief. Ayala complains to Gardy about his role. His last 15 IP as a Twin, he posts a .933 WHIP and 2.40 ERA. Unless Bobby Keppel keeps pitching well, I feel that the Twins may have pulled a Breslow and given up on Ayala too soon.

Craig Breslow (combined Twins & A‘s): 4.20 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.28 WHIP
I felt that Breslow was shown the door a bit too early, and he has proven me right since joining the A’s, especially since his replacement, Sean Henn, has just been replaced by Brian Duensing. His walks and HR allowed were too high with the Twins, but he had a good OBA prior to being claimed off waivers.

Bobby Korecky (Triple-A): 2.28 ERA, 2.15 FIP, 0.90 WHIP
Although Korecky, the same guy that was waived to make room for Ayala, hasn‘t pitched well in the majors for Arizona so far (though a 4.03 FIP says otherwise), he has been having a career year in Triple-A. Unfortunately, this means he’s likely due for a regression at some point, but with having a similar skill set to Ayala, you have to wonder how he would have pitched for the Twins this year.

Dennys Reyes: 4.35 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.31 WHIP
Despite a mutual interest, the Twins and Reyes didn’t really have a chance to remain together in ‘09 with the emergence of Breslow and Jose Mijares. As is life as a LOOGY (left-handed one-out guy) , Reyes’ ERA is a bit skewed due to a couple poor outings.

Juan Cruz: 4.91 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.36 WHIP
The guy that I’m sure most Twins fans wanted, he has clearly disappointed this year. Although his WHIP isn’t much differently from his past 2 seasons, a K rate that is half of last year’s isn’t good for a guy that was lauded for his ability to miss bats.

Brandon Lyon: 4.03 ERA, 5.22 FIP, 1.21 WHIP
Which do you believe? His FIP is similar to ’05 (6.44 ERA) but his WHIP to ’07 (2.68 ERA).

Eric Gagne (Quebec Capitales): 10.80 ERA, 2.35 WHIP
After learning some French from the Capitales official website, I found out from the Can-Am League website that Gagne hasn‘t pitched well at all. Combined with his MLB career, he certainly has had a hard fall from grace, and not the kind that you associate with pickup lines.

Chad Cordero: N/A
From what I can tell, Cordero is still in extended spring training for the Mariners rehabbing his shoulder. From May 20, GM Jack Zduriencik was quoted as saying that Cordero still had to improve his velocity before he would be assigned to the minors, and I believe that is still the case. During the offseason, this was a guy that I really wanted the Twins to sign, but considering that I can’t even track down his ‘09 minor league stats, there’s no way he would have been better than Ayala.

Russ Springer: 5.02 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.74 WHIP
Another guy that I wanted to see the Twins pursue, at first glance he appears to be having a poor season. But if you throw out a 6 game stretch of 11 ER in June, Springer improves to a 1.78 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. So as it turns out, you probably do still want Russ Springer.

When I first finished finding these stats, I thought that Ayala had simply outperformed just about everyone else on this list. But after checking the game logs for Springer and Reyes, I decided to look at everyone’s game logs and found that everyone had been a victim to 2-4 poor outings. Now I understand that picking and choosing certain games can make anyone look like a solid reliever, but this meant that most on this list would have been a good choice to be or stay a Twin. I also know that ERA is not the best way to judge a pitcher’s ability, but it is the simplest. So, after eliminating each pitcher’s 3 worst games (judged by their worst single game ERA) and still having about 25+ games in reserve for each, I leave you with each pitcher’s new ERA.

Reyes: 1.98
Lyon: 2.03
Breslow: 2.15
Cruz: 2.58
Springer: 2.70
Ayala: 2.73

First off, don’t know how many of you saw the highlights from Thursday’s game … but Jose Guillen made a cheap move when he took out Nick Punto on that double-play grounder. He went well out of his way on a certain double play. I mean, if it’s a close call, you absolutely have to give the baserunner the benefit of the doubt. But this one doesn’t come close. Funny to me that the Kansas City account of the game makes mention of Punto leaving the game without a whiff of how-and-why. That Morneau apparently strained his groin going for the throw on that play makes it a bit more outrageous.

How bad are the Royals right now? Gil Meche had a Liriano-like performance, throwing 121 pitches and putting on 11 base runners in six innings — and said account of the game referred to Meche as providing “a silver lining in that he resembled his old self.” The manager, Trey Hillman, said he was “pretty pleased” with his starter, which I guess if relative while watching your team get 12 hits and a walk while scoring only one run and wondering why you’re cursed with a guy like Guillen, who has played for nine teams despite five 20+ home run seasons.

Keep in mind the Royals were facing the B-minus lineup — and got snookered in the eighth, when the Twins went from 3-1 to 5-1 — by Matt ( .187) Tolbert, who smacked an RBI single on a 3-and-0 pitch with Joe Mauer on deck. That’s the takingest of take situations, unless you consider that you’re not going to see anything except a batting practice fastball. That the Twins scored their final walk on the intentional walk and two unintentional ones that followed was a fitting end.

Glen Perkins had his fourth straight solid-to-reasonable outing since coming off the disabled list. He’s given up eight runs in those 27 innings while putting only 32 runners on base. He hasn’t exactly been facing terrors at the plate in those games, and it’ll be interesting to see how he does against the Yankees in his next start.

Same goes for Scott Baker, who’ll pitch the opener of the Yankees series after not getting enough notice for pulling himself together in June, when he went 4-0, 3.20 and allowed less than one runner per inning while striking out 35 in 39 1/3.

If the Yankees rotation stays in form, the Twins will be facing CC Sabathia on Tuesday, A.J. Burnett on Wednesday and Chien-Ming Wang on Thursday. (So it looks like the Twins’ stretch of missing their opponents’ top guns is ending.) But first there’s the matter of a three-game series against the team that just happens to be three games ahead of the Twins in the standings. In other words, a good weekend that kicks off an interesting stretch that leads up to the All-Star game. So I apologize for looking ahead and expect that you won’t do the same.

One final thought: After watching Punto come back from his injury and slobberbobber his way through another stretch of hitless and poorly executed at-bats  — 0-for-9 against the Royals — I went looking somewhere, anywhere for a replacement. Starting with the assumption that the Twins aren’t going to be able to get Freddy Sanchez from the Pirates, I found that the second-base market is extraordinarily thin. (Folks, Brian Roberts isn’t coming here, either.) The Twins apparently were wrong in thinking that Alexi Casilla was going to be the answer at second base — at least for this season — but that opinion wasn’t exactly a minority point of view. So I can’t join the “should have gone after Orlando Hudson” crowd.

But, on further review, Augie Ojeda isn’t any better what the current guys. My hallucination on that will hang out there on the Internet for anyone to see and hold against me, but I take it back.

Speaking on taking it back, I wonder if Gardy wishes he hadn’t gone off so publicly on Luis Ayala. If the Twins really did have a shot at an Eric Hinske-for-Ayala deal with Pittsburgh, I wonder if Gardy’s words helped douse those talks. At the same time, I have a hard time blaming Gardy on that one.

First of all, Section 220 is on a lighter blogging scheduled for the next week-and-a-half for an assortment of reasons (all of them good things). That means I’m in the market for a couple of guest posts. If you’d like to submit one, you can email it here. A few suggestions: 400-500 words works best, make it something that has some shelf life; you can be funny and/or earnest; be yourself, and include a sentence about yourself that’s suitable for an “editor’s note.”

*I’m not ready to annoint Bobby Keppel as this year’s Breslow (right-handed version), but his hold ‘em performances so far have been encouraging. The good thing about the Twins’ offensive struggle Tuesday night was that he was brought into a one-run game and kept the lead in a full turn through the Kansas City batting order.  He seems to be centered pretty well. I heard him interviewed Sunday after his debut in St. Louis and while accolades were being sent his way, it was Keppel himself who pointed out that the outing was well and good, but it was only one game. Keppel is easy to root for.

*I’m concerned that the basket on Jose Mijares has become only half-full. We were hoping the Twins had found a lefty who could work an inning regardless of whether the opponents were hitting from the left or right. Unfortunately, his numbers against right-handed batters have devolved to .353/.421/.529 and he’s pretty much headed for a Dennys Reyes type of role. (His numbers against lefties are .083/.214/.167 — which includes 3 for 36 with 6 walks.)  Walking 12 of the 101 batters he’s faced is an ugly stat as well,  Kevin Slowey, by comparison, has walked 18 of 379.

*Can anyone who juggles numbers more than I do tell me why we’ve figured out the value of on-base percentage in talking about hitters, but we never hear that number in regard to pitchers? It’s always “batting average against,” and that seems like just as flawed a measure. With Mijares, for example, the difference in those numbers is between .241 and .340.

*This is not intended as a knock on Jason Kubel, who is justifying the faith shown in him. But I’m thinking it’s time for Gardy to consider flipping Cuddyer and Kubel in the batting order. Mauer and Morneau are fine regardless  of who’s pitching against them (left or right) — and I’m thinking that a right-handed bat in the five spot would get those pitchers out of the lineup one batter sooner in later-game situations. Mauer is .351/.430 against lefties, Morneau is .359/.385, Kubel is .185/.254. My theory gets Kubel better pitches to hit against a righty or a No. 2 lefty; Cuddyer is pretty much stats neutral, but has more power against lefties.

*It’s time to stop worrying about Brendan Harris’ defense. He’s never going to be an elite defensive shortstop, but he’s making more plays that I expected and he seems to be improving with more time spent at the position. In fact, when revised zone rating is used as the measure, Harris’ is .817 in 342 innings and Nick Punto’s is .785 in 348. Harris’ number puts him in the middle of the pack among AL shortstops with guys like Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox (who was moved from second to short to improve their defense), Marco Scutaro of Toronto and Erick Aybar of the Angels. Jason Bartlett’s RZR is .784, in case anyone asks.

*The Twins need a second baseman to get them through the rest of the season and this guy has played enough second base over the year to make me wonder if he could provide a half-year fix. His team is 17 1/2 games out of first place and I have to think the asking price would be next to nothing. Bring him back to Minnesota!

*That’s all for now. Day game today. Get out the radio.

There’s no shortage of words and thoughts floating around about how poorly the Twins played last night against the Royals — clueless at-bats, T-ball defense, a silly ejection argument. I know this isn’t the case, but it almost looked like the consecutive full-count home runs that Nick Blackburn gave up came on “what-the-hey” pitches — as in: What they hey. If you guys are gonna swing the bats like that and I’m gonna get squeezed on some pitches, then let’s just throw it and see what happens. 

So, while we’re feeling good and sour about the game, let me pile on with a look at what the Twins haven’t taken advantage of  in the last couple pf weeks, despite the general consensus that they seem to have found their way when playing on the road.

It’s the starting pitchers they haven’t faced and aren’t facing:

*In Milwaukee last week, the Twins missed Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo (8-4, 2.86), who is averaging more than a strikeout per inning and has an ERA more than two runs better than any of their other starters.

*Against St. Louis, they didn’t face ace Chris Carpenter (5-2, 1.78), who had pitched the day before against the Mets and is pitching tonight against the Giants.

*For the second time this season, Zack Greinke (10-3, 1.95) doesn’t have his turn in the rotation coming up against the Twins. Instead, the Twins are facing three pitchers whose numbers look good mainly when compared to Sidney (1-5, 7.27) Ponson.

*And, for good measure, Detroit ace Justin Verlander (8-3, 3.40) is pitching in Oakland on Wednesday, which means he won’t face the Twins this weekend at the Metrodome.

Of course, the Tigers are giving Lucas French his first major league start on Friday night, which will allow us to hear more blah-blah-blah about facing unfamiliar pitchers. When you start hearing that stuff, cover your ears and keep in mind who the Twins haven’t been facing lately.

“Your pain is the breaking of the shell that encloses your understanding. It is the bitter potion by which the physician within you heals your sick self. Therefore, trust the physician and drink his remedy in silence and tranquility.” — Khalil Gibran.

“#$%&!”  – Khalil Greene, after being struck out by Francisco Liriano, playing the role of physician during Sunday afternoon’s game, the best one that Liriano has pitched all season. The screamed F-bomb was clearly heard on TV and sent Dick Bremer into a momentary word stumble.

“(Baseball) is a source of a lot of joy, but it’s also a source of a lot of frustration and sadness and fear. It’s difficult to deal with, because it is something I really enjoy doing, but it has become at times like a love-hate relationship. And the hate is not for the game necessarily but it’s in the feeling that the game often tends to arise within me. It’s not whatever you would consider to be normal. It’s a different level of intensity.” — Khalil Greene, in USA Today after returning from the disabled list earlier this month because of an anxiety disorder.

“Infielder Khalil Greene, battling anxiety issues again, is likely to go on the disabled list for a second time. Greene, who homered in three straight games in Kansas City a week ago  before going 0 for his last 13 in New York, had sat out two games this weekend before starting Sunday (against the Twins). Greene went 0 for three, striking out twice and committing an error at third base, and La Russa lifted him after seven innings.  ‘He was having some problems,’ (Manager Tony) La Russa said. ‘That’s all I’ll say. Otherwise, there’s no reason to take him out.’ “–Today’s St. Louis Post-Dispatch website.

One of the great joys of baseball is our ability to analyze from afar. We make trades to help the teams we follow, we analyze performances and try to make sense of the myriad numbers that are both the beauty and curse of the game. We want out .310 power hitters not to go into slumps, which also means they’ll never go on team-carrying tears. We want our .394-hitting superstars to play every day, especially when we have tickets to the game. We want continuous improvement from young players, consistency from veterans and managers to do the right thing — either going by the book or taking a risk — depending on what we think we’d do in a given situation.

None of that is bad.

As fans, we have the absolute and total right to do all of these things. In fact, it is our responsibility to expect excellence because, after all, the participants are the ones who have reached the highest levels because they’ve never been willing to settle for less. So it’s OK to scream when Nick Punto hurts himself and the team with dives into first base or when Sean Henn can’t get the ball over the plate or while trying to figure out the mysteries of Delmon Young or Alexi Casilla.

At the same time, the Khalil Greene thing is reminder and a reinforcement to me. It happens that I was talking to a friend this weekend about the venom that sometimes comes from people when things aren’t going well for their teams. As snarky as I can get about stuff, I said that the reason I love baseball is that when things are going well, it’s a reminder that I’ve chosen to follow and watch the truly beautiful game (Sorry, soccer).

When my team plays badly, it’s still baseball.

I told my friend, after we were done dissecting Justin Morneau, that the last time a baseball game had truly made me crazy — made me mumble and grumble afterward — was Game 4 of the 2004 playoffs. You might remember it as the Juan Rincon game.

If Khalil Gibran had bothered with baseball, I suspect he would have said something like: To have something that provides joy without a whole lot of pain is a gift to be cherished.”

I hope Khalil Greene can rediscover the joys of baseball.

***

Speaking of the joy of baseball, there’s Francisco Liriano’s performance yesterday. Given an early lead, he didn’t spit it up, holding the Cardinals hitless until the fifth inning — and them coming back with a solid sixth and seventh after his struggles in the fifth (giving up two runs and three hits on consecutive pitches).

But here’s the best part: In 2006, when Liriano was truly the Franchise, he was retiring batters with ground balls when he wasn’t striking them out. His ratio of ground outs to fly outs was 2.19:1, an outstanding number and testament to his slider and changeup. That ratio dropped to 0.92:1 last season.

Yesterday, in addition to his six strikeouts, Liriano got 12 ground outs and only 3 fly outs. And there were only two walks. For all the chatter about what Liriano needs to do to be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, those are numbers worth watching in good times and bad.

And one other thing, who would have bet that on the last trip through the rotation, the games lost by the Twins would be the ones pitches by Blackburn and Slowey?  I’ll take that as another hopeful sign.