The sky is starting to fall (again). So catch it!
Posted on May 18th, 2007 – 6:53 AMBy Howard
One year ago today:
Team W L Pct GB
Detroit 27 13 .675
W-Sox 26 14 .650 1
Cleve. 20 21 .488 7.5
Twins 17 24 .415 10.5
K-City 10 28 .263 16
In other words, if you think things couldn’t have gotten any worse, think back to a year ago.
That being said, the upcoming “rivalry weekend” looks to offer more of a chance to start getting their own house in order than the attack the current 7-game deficit in the division. Cleveland, Detroit and the White Sox are all playing teams that are below .500 in the weak NL Central. Cleveland is playing last-place Cincinnati, Detroit plays 16-22 St. Louis and the White Sox play the Cubs, who spent $300 million in the off season and wouldn’t be that much worse if they’d $299 million less and only brought in Sidney Ponson.
Meanwhile, the Twins will find out if Milwaukee is really good or mostly a product of playing most of its schedule against teams in its dreadful division. The Brewers just returned home after a 2-5 against the Mets and Phillies. Aside from six other games at the start of the season against the Dodgers and Marlins, and a three-game sweep of East-trailing Washington, the Brewers have run up their hot start against NL Central rivals.
By comparision, the Twins have been banging around against rivals in their “best division in baseball,” for the most part.
And now comes a chance for self-correction: After Milwaukee, they go to last-place Texas and then return home to play Toronto (surprisingly struggling at the moment) and the White Sox. At the moment, that offers more hope than, say, playing s’more against Cleveland, Detroit and Boston.
The Twins’ schedule over the next six weeks offers a different set of challenges than what they’ve faced so far. Except for the White Sox over Memorial Day weekend, there are no games against division rivals until the final days of June. That doesn’t mean a cupcake schedule by any means, but it simply doesn’t look to be as tough, nor with the edge of playing AL Central rivals.
So it’s time for better performance, better personnel and better results. Or else, by the end of next month, we’ll be talking more about preparing for 2008 than the rest of 2007 — which was pretty much what we were saying at this time last season.
25 Responses to "The sky is starting to fall (again). So catch it!"
Just when you think things can’t possibly get any worse, they get worse.
Interesting numbers Howard and I hope somehow they can find a way to turn it around, but the bottom line remains if they continue to score 3 or fewer runs per game it doesn’t matter who we are playing. Another tough lefty tonight in
Capuano and only 8 hitters in the lineup with no D-H. If were 10 games out by the end of the month with 3 very good teams to climb over, it will be interesting to see how Terry Ryan approaches the remainder of the season.
He really needed to address the problems with this lineup as soon as
Mauer went down.
The mindset Terry Ryan employs regarding the following absolutely baffles me:
1. his knack for clinging to pitching prospects like a two year old with a blanket
2. his faith in washed up veterans (see Batista, Ponson, Ortiz, Castro)
Seriously, it’s time to part with a prospect or two to acquire BATS (anything: veterans, minor leaguers)…
I also see that Scott Baker is going to be called up this weekend?
I just don’t see a lot hope at this time that we are going to see the reversal we saw last year. Even with Mauer back, the offense has struggled. There is no Lirano and the starting pitching is not strong — outside of Santana. And the Twins continue to beat themselves — which to me is the most disappointing part of the season.
Howard, you’re ignoring the games the Twins have already played against the Devil Rays, Orioles and Mariners. The Twins have already played a significant amount of their ‘easy’ schedule.
Peder,
I’m not ignoring them. But I’d argue the Twins have played more games against “tough” teams than the Brewers at this stage of the season. And these things are hard to quantity accurately. Playing Oakland in the first half of a season is typically a good thing; playing them after the All-Star break (or in October) can be, uhhhh, problematic. It would have been nice to play the Jays a couple of weeks ago and… and… and…
My main point was that Milwaukee may not be the dominant team its record indicates, although (as Joe Maddon would agree) you haven’t had to be a dominant team to beat the current version of the Twins.
I’m wondering whether it is possible for the planets to line up two years in a row.
Last season was nothing short of miraculous and we’re getting closer to “needing a miracle” territory every day.
Is there any reason to think they’d have Mauer play some LF when he comes back? Seems like a longshot, but I’d like to see it sooner rather than later…
Sad to say this so early in the season, but if the boys don’t get it together soon (and by that I mean immediately) we may all look back on this roadtrip as the one that killed our chances of making a playoff run. I know there’s a lot of season left, but this team is lacking so many of the things right now that fueled our turnaround last year I just don’t see it happening again. Things like dominant pitching and solid defense, discipline at the plate, mental sharpness on the bases, the ability to execute on fundamentals, and confidence. I also believe we’ve had some real bad luck this year, starting with the injuries, but also in the games themselves - all the bloops and bleeders that just miss our gloves, the balls hit right to opposing players, a pitches left up and over the plate at the worst possible time, and even some bad umpiring. I think the worm will turn. The question is, will it turn soon enough and sharply enough to salvage this season?
I think it’s time for TR to pick up the phone and call his buddy Wayne Krivsky and see what he wants for Adam Dunn….and when he gets his answer, I hope he seriously considers it! Thoughts?
CMB: I mentioned this over on Joe C.’s blog (about making a trade with Cincy)…despite Adam Dunn’s K’s, I wouldn’t be too upset with him batting 4th or so in our lineup. With that said, I do NOT want to mortgage the future with him, especially since, if I’m not mistaken, free agency is approaching for him…
Dunn’s not a good fit; and it’ll be too costly to get him.
Here’s the problem:
Morneau’s BA and RBI’s are down. Cuddyer’s home runs too. Mauer’s home runs too, and now he’s absent. Bartlett and Punto are identically lacking.
But look for all of the above to improve. For instance, Punto’s OBP is slowly going up.
The focus is M&M, and will they rise to excellence again.
Yet, presuming all my optimism pans out, the key is still DH! And replacing the redundancy of Ford and Tyner sitting on the same bench.
Doesn’t have to a big bopper like Dunn; but has to be something substantial, which can only be found outside the organization.
If Ryan doesn’t make the move, the Twins don’t go to post-season.
I hate to say it, but the prospect of the Twins making the postseason now are slim, especially with the log-jam in front of them in the standings (in particular, Detroit and Cleveland)
I’m afraid to say that the time is nigh
I think we match up better with the National league teams in their ball parks being we are used to playing without a DH.
“We are used to playing without a DH!” That’s for sure!
Either this team really can’t hit, or is getting opposing pitchers at the wrong time.
Adam Dunn?
Dream on. Maybe we could work a three team trade and get A Rod from the Yankees and solve our third base problem at the same time.
Anyone else goin’ to Milwaukee? If so, see you there (tomorrow & Sunday)!
romer: “Morneau’s BA and RBI’s are down”
Ya of course his RBI’s are down. Its kind of hard to drive in runs when nobody is ever on base.It seems like all of his homeruns are solo shots, except for the 3 run homer to beat the white sox, which was sweet!! but sadly thats about the only high point in the season so far for the twins
I don’t think Morneau’s having THAT bad of a start, to be honest with you…
Collectively though, the entire team is in a slump (maybe with the exception of Torii)
Hmm….looks like we have a new 3rd baseman….Cirillo anyone??? A triple and a homerun!!! Wow…punto cant even get a single
Regarding Cirillo, that was awesome. While it was merely one game, I was pleasantly surprised with his performance. He had to have been a little jacked for his homecoming to Milwaukee.
Howard, Romer above mentions that MVP’s BA and RBI’s are down. Wasn’t there lots of talk this off season and spring about the probability of his avg coming down a bit as his pwr #’s go up? He is on pace for over 40 Hr’s and 100 rbi’s. I think his rbi’s will come up when Mauer gets back.
True, Big Dawg, I realized Morneau isn’t down very much. And pretty hard to duplicate what he did last year. But I’m thinking he’ll do better than so far. I remember his hitting into some DP’s, where last year he’d get a hit.
I’m just looking for him to get past the .300 mark and how it will affect the rest of the lineup.
Last year he (MVP) was a slow starter like Santana. He didn’t start hitting until June 10th or so. It seems ironic that everyone is talking about last years turnaround. Here is how I see this year. Santana will start to pitch well like usual. Mauer will come back and tear it up. One or two of the rookie starters will come up and pitch well. We are fielding essentially the same team as last year. Here is the upside: Silva and Boof seem better. MVP, and Mauer are a year older. Torii is having a career year. Remember Liriano and Radke were hurt and didn’t contribute much after July. I think we have reasons to be optimistic. If TR can pull off a magical trade ala Shannon stewart, we could be in business.
