Let’s take a minute to review some of our expectations
Posted on May 13th, 2008 – 8:45 AMBy Howard
The Twins are 20-17 and that doesn’t surprise me. That a 20-17 record is good enough for them to be in first place by 1 1/2 games is the surprising thing.
Who would have known that Detroit would be a box of mismatched puzzle parts and Cleveland would simply stop hitting. (Thanks, Pronk.) I appreciate the good ride that the home team happens to be on, and I buy into the notion that the Twins will be a better team as the season goes on. More injuries or an implosion among the pitchers could make that assessment folly, but I am on the side of the glass being half full with more being poured into it every week.
That being said, I’m amused by some of the positions that people have staked our during the first six weeks of the season. People want more from Joe Mauer even though he’s second in the league in batting average and sixth in on-base percentage. That he’s not hitting any home runs is driving some people a bit goofy.
As someone commented on JoeC’s blog, without irony (I think): “We need Delmon and Mauer both healthy. If we didn’t have both of them in the lineup, where would we get all our singles from?”
Given the Twins’ current makeup, I am perfectly fine if Mauer keeps his on-base percentage over .400 and drives in 80 runs. Whether he hits 1 or 11 or 21 home runs is irrelevant to me. In an ideal world, it would be great if he could hit second, but the Twins don’t have a 3-4-5 in the way that the Tigers and White Sox have them, and a Jim Thome clone ain’t showing up any time soon.
And Morneau hasn’t hit a home run this month. Heavenly bleepers. He’s on pace to drive in 123 runs and hit 27 home runs. I’ll take that too, as well as his continuing improvement at first base. For the record, Kent Hrbek drove in more than 100 runs only once in his career and Morneau’s already passed Hrbek’s single-season high twice in his career.
A guy named Harmon Killebrew had 1,540 RBI for the Twins in 9,462 plate appearances. If Morneau continues at his current career pace, he will have 1,627 RBI when he has the same number of plate appearances. You can dismiss that analysis as simplistic, but my point is that I’m using the numbers to justify that the Twins have an awfully good first baseman who hasn’t exactly better letting them down when the power gets turned off. I’ll take the 7-for-11 and a walk in his last Boston games.
Senor Smoke Free is 6-1. Yes, the Twins have provided him with more offensive support than any other starter in the American League, but 6-1 is 6-1 is 6-1. I’m not sure how you do that with a 3.90 ERA while allowing 83 runners in 57 2/3 innings, but sometimes I don’t ask questions. (Not often, though.) My only quibble with Livan right now is his fondness for sleeveless uniform tops. (That’s the starting pitcher’s call.) Not a flattering look, but if Senor Smoke Free finishes the season 18-10, he can pitch nekkid with body paint pin stripes for all I care. (I’ll be listening to those games on the radio, though.)
Mike Lamb is better than Nick Punto at third, Delmon Young (while maddening to this point) is better than Jason Tyner in left, Mauer ‘08 trumps Mauer ‘07, the DH choice of Kubel or Monroe is better than the options of last season, Gogomez keeps me from thinking much about the guy who used to play center field and Adam Everett simply won’t make 26 errors like Jason Bartlett did last season. Tolbert, though raw, is a better utility option than anything the Twins had last year and Punto, when he’s healthy, should play markedly less than last season. That’s a pretty good list of enhancements and I think that Bill Smith is off to a good start as GM.
The “send ‘em back to Houston” movement regarding Lamb and Everett has been the epitome of shortsightedness and impatience, all the more when it’s suggested that Punto at short and Tolbert at third is a superior combination.
I started the season thinking the Twins would hold up well against most teams and simply be overmatched against elite teams, a feeling that was reinforced when they started by going 1 of 4 against the Angels. But they have handled division rivals well and just handled the Red Sox quite nicely. Even excellent teams have bad stretches — remember that Tampa Bay swept the Red Sox a few weeks back — and I am willing to dismiss the Oakland/Texas trip as one of those inevitable weeks. And management seems to be finally dealing in reality when it comes to the Liriano mess. There’s no reason to give him another chance until he’s both physically and mentally ready to be here, whether that’s in June or in 2009. Unfortunately, at this point Liriano is more fragment than franchise.
Of course, I do have a wish list. I want to see Delmon show some power and Bonser show more consistency, and I want Slowey to be the young stud we hoped for last year. I want Brendan Harris to look more like Castillo around second base and less like me. I want Punto to have 150-200 at-bats at the end of the season and not 350-400. I want Rincon to pitch every night like he pitched last night and I want my skepticism about Jesse Crain to be proven wrong.
A 20-17 pace plays out to an 88-74 record. I wouldn’t have bet you at the start of the season that the Twins would win 88 games. Now, if you buy the improving team scenario, are we being delusional if we start thinking about them winning 90 or more?
other people are here too
136 Responses to "Let’s take a minute to review some of our expectations"
Great post Howard. I like the patience and logic provided in this commentary. Well done.
Nice piece Howard. As for improving, doesn’t every team feel it will get better as the year goes on? Aren’t the Tigers’ fans saying that, and Cleveland’s?
As for expectations, Buddhists would tell us to just experience the world as it is, and quit trying to impose our pre-conceived notions on the world. I wonder what being a sports fan who just relaxes and enjoys the flow would be like.
To me, Young is the biggest disappointment (I’ll never make a good Buddhist). I just don’t get how he can be this bad for this long a time. Livan is the biggest surprise. I’d have lost hundreds to anyone that suggested he’d be 6-1 at this point. I’m just amazed everytime he wins, even though it should be obvious by now that he knows how to pitch.
I still have concerns about this offenses ability to score this many runs this often, but I’m just going to try to enjoy the ride right now, and not hope for more from LF, 3B, SS, DH.
I’ve always thought you can’t be considered a playoff team until your 10 games over .500, then it’s how soon you get to 20 over. If we can play our division well this year 10 games over may be enough. We are a looonnnng way from the playoffs, but it’s nice no one got hot and ran away early.
this whole team is sbout where I expected them to be.
If they are still above .500 at the all star break that would rock.
This is still Clevelands division to lose…they might be the only team in the Majors that compares to boston in talent.
I DO CARE IF MAUER DOESN’T HIT FOR AT LEAST 20 HR’S IF HE DOESN’T START TO HIT FOR POWER THEN HE’S EXPENDABLE!
I DON’T CARE IF HE HITS .330 FOR HIS ENTIRE CAREER IF HE CAN’T PROVIDE ANY POWER DO NOT BAT HIM THIRD!!!!!!
THIS WILL BE TOTALLY PATHETIC, EVEN IF WE WIN THE DIVISION, IF WE DON’T HAVE A SINGLE PLAYER HIT 30 HR’S
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY PLAYER ON THE TEAM THAT SHOWS THAT THEIR TRULY ELITE AT THEIR POSITION IS NATHAN.
PRETTY SAD THAT THE BEST PLAYER ON THE TEAM IS THE CLOSER
young isn’t hitting home runs cause vavra changed his swing… hes not trying to pull the ball as hard as he can anymore…. which is really sad and just proves even more that vavra needs to go
“THIS WILL BE TOTALLY PATHETIC, EVEN IF WE WIN THE DIVISION, IF WE DON’T HAVE A SINGLE PLAYER HIT 30 HR’S”
i dont think there has been a player who has hit 30+ home runs in detroit since like 1998…. you think their mad? all we have to do is win games.. that doesnt mean we have to hit a homer on every at bat… (like chicago….) i would much rather take a 7-11 from morneau then a 0-14 at the beginning of the season when he was only trying to hit for power…
If we win the division this year — I wouldn’t consider it pathetic.
Lamb got 7 outs in 4 plate appearances last night, he was absolutely brutal at the plate.
“THIS WILL BE TOTALLY PATHETIC, EVEN IF WE WIN THE DIVISION, IF WE DON’T HAVE A SINGLE PLAYER HIT 30 HR’S”
Winning is not important.
Individual STATS are MORE important.
I guess the dancing fools in the NFL who celebrate their sacks, tackles, receptions, etc, while their team is losing by 40 points were right all along.
I guess winning is not the only thing, its actually nothing.
I have to go back and correct all the guys who coached me when I was growing up.
I love the half full approach. Unfortunately I am normally the half empty guy.
I still don’t expect this team to compete for a playoff spot. That being said they are winning which is great. My question is, if the Twins start to fall 3, 4, 5 games below .500 do you look to trade Livan? There are so many teams that need pitching I would love for the Twins to steal a quality infield prospect for a guy the Twins don’t need after this year.
Winning the division is not pathetic and Delmon Young has NOT been a disappointment. He is only 22 years old and historically starts off fairly slow. He is hitting above .270. Hunter did not do that in that majors as a 22 year old.
On the Delmon Young topic. I must point out that he is a slow starter. He said in an interview last week that at the end of may last year he was hitting about .230 with 0 HR. He finished at .288 13 HR 80+RBIs. I say give it some time.
I am one of the most patient sports fans there are. Look at a players track record and assume they will follow suit. (IE Mike Lamb is a consistent .260 13HR hitter).
I’ll take Mauer’s OBP over 25HR’s anyway. His job is to get on base so Morneau, Cuddy, and Young can knock him in. The 3 spot is for the best hitter on the team, which Mauer is. Not to mention the fact that Morneau prefers it and hits a hell of a lot better with Mauer in front of him. He claims he gets pitched the same as Mauer, so he gets to see the approach first hand. Since Mauer has been moved to the 3 spot, Morneau’s AVG has creeped toward .300 and Mauer’s toward .340. I wouldn’t complain.
nice take howard. as for young he is hitting for a decent average just not the power, a dissapointment but not a big one yet. remember that is twins baseball, station to station small ball he is doing what they preach. morneau is the exception we are not a hr hitting team and haven’t been for many many years. how many yrs did we go without a 30 hr guy?
did anyone catch the steriod talk and lack of hr’s last night from the espn cast? it was interesting they also said fastball speed is down, so there were probably more pitchers juicing than we know.
i was afraid with all the changes this could be a willie norwood, hoskin powell era agian but smith has put together an entertaining team to this point.
Nice piece, a couple thoughts in rebuttal:
The Everett / Lamb thing has been a mess…I know it’s hard to complain when things are going good, but the fact is these two have yet to show us they are still everyday big leaguers. Everett’s average is barely hovering over the freeway and Lamb, sans a clutch blooper last Friday night, is making Tony Bautista look like an All-Star. If the team starts to go cold, these two will stick out as trouble spots as once again the Twins have failed to address the left side of the infield…
2. Singles are okay if you’re lucky enough to have everyone hitting singles. The Twins benefitted from this phenomenon during the Boston series…even Justin Morneau was hitting singles like they were the cool thing to do…so while it’s good to see hits in bunches, eventually there will come a time when Mauer / Cuddyer / Young might want to find a way to hit it over the fence…and if Mauer isn’t going to hit for power, he CANNOT continue to occupy the 3-hole (Steve Phillips pointed that out nicely during the broadcast last night).
3. 10,000 bloggers were wrong. Craig Monroe looks like he’s ready to assume the DH role and could be the best DH on this squad since, umm…you know who. Kubel will be a nice left-handed pinch hitter.
4. The bullpen will be fine without Neshek. I hated to see him go down, but we have enough experience out there with Nathan, Crain, Guerrier, and Rincon to get the job done…
5. Love the outfield. You pretty much have to start Young / Go-go / Cuddyer every night…what an awesome trio we have out there…
6. Starting pitching still hasn’t let us down…(sole exceptions to this rule has been the Liriano experience and Booooof)
7. Agree with Howard that it is not a concern that Justin Morneau hasn’t gone deep yet in May…he hasn’t forgot how to do it, folks, and he’s nearly hitting .300…he’s our best all around player in my opinion. We could get by without others, but not him.
Young has the potential to be the most explosive hitter in the lineup. If he has to hit singles for a while to learn plate discipline — I can live with that. It is also encouraging to watch Gomez develope. He still makes mistakes but you can see him working on it. With the nucleus we have and the potential of Young and Gomez — we could be in for some great baseball down the road.
Roto
Actually Young had at least 4 HR’s by the end of May last year. His average was lower but his Slugging was much higher. I think the Twins coaching staff has already started to ruin his swing. Plus they haven’t instilled the patience at the plate, which is what he needs. Delmon Young could be a top 10 hitter in baseball if the coaches knew what they were doing. He has the natural talent to be another Vlad.
gw
That’s the problem, Young isn’t learning any plate discipline. Yes he is hitting singles but his OBP is not good. I could live with singles if his average was above .300 and his OBP were .400 like Mauer but that isn’t the case. This coaching staff has not helped him at all in my opinion.
Jason,
You make some good points. My only beef is with the Everett/Lamb argument. I would say Everett is doing exactly what we expect. He will be around .240 by the end of the season, and be the best defensive SS in the AL. That’s what he was signed for.
Lamb is starting to come around, but it’s tough to tell. He’s starting to hit the ball harder. Earlier in the year he was popping out a lot (a la current Kubel). I think that “cookie” might get him on track. His AVG is rising, and I forsee a dinger in the near future.
Jama - relax - things take time.
the point on hunter is right on, young is 22 and torii didn’t play a full season until he was 24 and didn’t hit over 20 hr’s until he was 26. i think we tend to forget how young this team is.
Jama,
I will admit one thing you said has creeped into my mind. I remember how the Twins kind of held Ortiz back. Granted it was the injuries for the most part. But if you start telling a free swinging pull ball hitter to do what he isn’t comfortable with, you’re going to see a lot of foul balls, which has happened.
I wouldn’t say the coaches have completely screwed him up yet, but it is possible. I guess we’ll just have to hope he becomes a more productive Torii Hunter. Remember, at Young’s age, Hunter might have still been in the minors.
This year is a bonus year and so far I really like what I see. I think Tolbert will be our starting SS or 3B next year and I am ok with him learning a little from Everett. You have to remember Everett played for a lot of years in Houston so he needs a little transition time to get his fielding back to his normal level (which he is starting to show). I am just fine with the platoon at SS and 3B right now, I think it is making Tolbert, Lamb, Everett, and Punto play harder. The big thing is our main guys look great and out new young guys are showing flashes of greatness.
The starting pitching will only get better and they young guys learn the league. We are in for some good baseball.
The twins have a number of young talented players, a number of more seasoned guys just entering their prime, and a solid bullpen. The games I have seen so far this year have been seriously exciting.
I am not a yankees fan, so I do not expect a championship favorite every year. All I want is a competitive team that can keep me blissfully distracted. To this end, I am a happy twins consumer.
When our winning percentage is the best in the American League then I’ll stop complaining about homers.
Right now the biggest weakness on the team is our weakness!
If we had just lost 3 0f 4 you all would be saying the same thing.
We were fortunate and played pretty solid baseball but we could have won all 4 if Gardy wouldn’t have asked Perkins to pitch the 7th
however we are not anywhere near as good as the redsox because…..we can’t hit for power DEAL WITH IT YOU LOSERS THIS TEAM IS WEAK WE WILL WIN MORE THAN WE LOSE BECAUSE WE ARE YOUNG TALENTED AND WELL COACHED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VAVRA.
Love it or hate it the fact is that if Kubel, Mauer, and Morneau all hit for power then we could be a legit threat to teams like boston.
right now we are just pea shooters who have had some good results at home
THE TIGERS STADIUM IS THE BIGGEST IN BASEBALL THATS WHY THEY DON’T HIT ALOT OF HOMERS THEIR LOOK AT THE RUNS SCORED IF YOU WANT THE REAL STORY
gw
How much time do you give people? The after this week the Twins will be over a quarter of the way through the schedule. I’d say it’s fair to say that the Coaches have done little to help Young. I don’t think he is a bad player I think that the instruction he is getting is the problem. How does a 21 year old with all the talent in the world get marketably worse his second full year in the league?
Just to be devil’s advocate, the Diamondbacks are littered with young hitters who are light years ahead of our young hitters…
Shameless,
You got a HR from Everett. YOU WANT MORE???
shameless,
Now you are just not making sense. Ok if we lost 3 of 4, we might be complaining. BUT WE DIDN’T. I figure if I type in all caps too, you might understand.
Back when we made the ALCS, we weren’t a power hitting team, but we won a lot of games and went deep in the postseason. Homers aren’t the end all be all. They are nice, but look what it does for the ChiSox. Once they stopped hitting the homers, and stopped getting on base, they started losing.
Morneau will hit 30 again. We might have 2 guys in the 20’s. But winning is all about pitching and bullpen success.
The dome is a pitcher friendly park as well, BTW.
Young has had a pretty big transition too. He will come around and in no way to I think that the Twins staff has screwed up his swing. I heard a quote from Gardy saying that they have been letting him get out there and take hacks. He’ll have 3 or 4 home runs by the end of May. He is already starting to hit the ball harder and he is hitting .348 or something over the last 6 or 7 games.
Michael Scott,
Those same D’Back hitters also couldn’t score last year. Each year is different. We are younger than them as well, I believe.
Jama,
How much time to give a 22 yr old to develope? Let me think……. How about a year?
Roto
I am not a big fan of trying to compare Young and Hunter. Young was the #1 pick in the draft and is much more naturally talented than Hunter. The reason Young is playing in the Majors at 22 is because he deserves it. Hunter was more of an athlete that learned how to play baseball. If Young hadn’t thrown that bat at an umpire he probably would have been playing in the Bigs at 19 years old.
I just don’t see any reason to compare those 2 players. If anything you should be comparing Young to guys that started playing when they were 21. Look at the Upton Brothers they are young and are both having a lot of success. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think Young could be doing the same thing.
Delmon Young is LAST among LFers in all of baseball (that qualify for the batting title) in OPS. LAST. He is the only one w/o a HR. The next to last LFer is 43 points above him. How is that not a disappointment?
I wasn’t a big fan of the trade, as I felt Garza was the only pitcher (not injured, and not about to be traded) that had ace type stuff. However, I thought Young had a chance (he still does) to be a good to very good player, so I didn’t totally rip the trade. So far, he’s been pretty bad. That will hopefully change, but I’m not sure how anyone can argue that he hasn’t been bad, given that every other LFer in the game has been better with the bat.
Great post Howard. But then again, I don’t disagree with anything you wrote!
Last year I was one of those razzing Mauer for not hitting for power. I was wrong. He is not a power hitter and never will be but let’s leave him alone and let him do what he does best - get hits. Do you hear anyone razzing Jeter or Suzuki about not hitting homers?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I think Young is doing just fine; he is starting to get a lot of hits and the power will be there if he doesn’t let Vavra get into his head.
I was at the game last night - that catch by Cuddy was a gem.
Jama, Young IS hitting better this year than at the same point last year. His average was in the .220’s at this time last year. So he is transitioning to a new team and doing better AND has been on a little hot streak for the last week.
gw
Wasn’t last year the year Young got to develop? I understand that he is young but I don’t think you should expect a drop off in slugging percentage. This guy has been playing AA or higher for the last 3 years. Plus it’s not like he switched leagues. He has seen all of these pitchers before.
Missed the main point…the point is Youth is not an excuse for poor (so far) hitting.
Jesse
Yes Young’s BA is higher but his OBS and SLG are both way down. The Twins traded for him for his Power potential not to see him hit singles. Imagine another 25 HR guy batting 3rd between Mauer and Morneau. This team would be much more dangerous and that is the guy that the Twins were expecting.
Again I don’t think this is all Young’s fault, the coaches need to teach him plate discipline but at the same time let him pull the ball. All this “take it the other way” Twins way of hitting is ruining what should be a great career.
I think a big surprise for me is that Young is hitting letfies at .206 and last year he he hit lefties better than righties at .299.
I guess you need to do all your developing in one year — if you don’t your a bum?
I’m with you Michael. I think most expected Young to hit at least 5th and then move into the 3 spot. He is actually moving down and batting 7th right now.
gw
It’s called progress, developing is fine, but do you expect a guy in his 4th year to be better than in his 1st? I sure do and I expect him to progress each year in between. I’m not asking for a guy to hit .350 with 45 HR’s and 120 RBI’s. But a .260 ave with 15 Hr’s and 90 RBI’s would be nice. And his SLG should not be last in all the Majors for LF’s. The fact that Gomez has a higher SLG% than Young is just insane to me.
Who said he was a bum? We are saying that SO FAR this year, he has not played well. I’m judging him on his performance, not on his potential, which I still think is good.
Jama,
I understand and I think his power will come WAY before any type of plate discipline will. He will start hitting for power. Personally, I think he just needs to lay off the low stuff way out of the zone. He reminds me of Torri Hunter and Jacque Jones, lay couldn’t lay off the high stuff.
Kay….
Jeter has 196 career HRs and has had more than 10 every season…
Ichiro, who bats lead-off, has 2 HRs this season…
His problem is the fact that he feels the need to pull everything. Pitchers are constantly throwing him breaking balls away because they know he will chase it and they know he will try to pull it, which becomes a ground out.
The Twins approach isn’t perfect, but wanting someone to be a complete hitter is a good idea. Once Young learns to go Oppo with the low and away slider, he will be unstoppable.
jama…
blame it on Vavra…
“THIS TEAM IS WEAK WE WILL WIN MORE THAN WE LOSE BECAUSE WE ARE YOUNG TALENTED AND WELL COACHED”
I guess that covers both exits.
Roto, I agree. I can deal with a little down time while he learns to become a better all around hitter. Comparing his pull hitting style to Papi is dumb. I think Young is doing fine and is learning a lot. He is becoming more comfortable and is still confident.
shameless, you are an annoying, uneducated baseball fan. Go follow the White Sox if all you want is homers.
Roto
You are way off. Check out Young’s hit chart. He has an unbelievable percentage of balls hit the opposite way. I know pitchers have been throwing him away, but not to the extent of his hit chart. Here’s the link
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?playerID=430321&statType=1
jama,
You are right.
Delmon is pull crazy?
Never was - never will be.
Jason,
I think Mauer got off track last year because he tried to become a power hitter. He’s not, but he’s darned good at what he does. The fans screaming for Mauer to be home run hitter would not be happy if he served up 2 so far ala Suzuki, they would be screaming for more. Leave him alone, just let him hit.
Reality check:
On March 30, this was a 70 win ball club. Today they’re looking like an 80 win ball club, the Tigers and White Sox are both train wrecks and Cleveland left their bats in the sun belt. Suddenly we’ve got a CHANCE to contend dispite our flaws and injuries. We just took 3 of 4 from ‘the Nation’ and here we are wallowing in our inadequacies. There will be plenty of time for that when we’re on a 2-8 stretch. Let’s enjoy what’s going right a little bit.
jama,
“How does a 21 year old with all the talent in the world get marketably worse his second full year in the league?”
The term “sophomore jinx” would not exist if Delmon was the FIRST to regress the year after being a good rookie. You may think that its just coachspeak, but I am convinced no one in the Twins FO or field staff is anywhere close to being worried about Delmon’s hitting. And I’ll bet a weeks pay that no one in MLB coaching circles thinks that Delmon will fail as a hitter.
SHAMELESS = DUMBEST POSTS EVER
1) You use all caps, which is absolutetly obnoxius.
2) You say It is totally pathetic, even if we win the division, if we don’t have someone hit more than 30 home runs…who cares how we win as long as we win. I’ll take the Twins over the Yankess any day. As long as they are consistently able to win with their style, nothing else matters.
And to everyone else who says Mauer shouldn’t be hitting 3rd, as Howard pointed out, what other options do we have. I’d love to try and see you come up with a better batting order, Mauer doesn’t need to hit home runs, he just needs to start hitting more gaps, so he can bring Gomez home from 1st.
1) batting order make virtually no difference.
2) if you wanted to optimize it I’d think the best approach would be to put the guys who make the fewest outs first.
3) No manger would ever do that because they’d be fired the minute Bonds hit a solo HR leading off the 1st.
sane
Young pulled the ball much more last year than he is this year. That is what worries me more than anything, and why I think the Twins coaches have tinkered too much on that aspect of his hitting. Last year he used all of the field, this year he is going the other way at an alarming rate.
It’s funny that Gardy says they want to let him swing. But at the same time they always want him going the other way.
I seem to be having an issue with the last two digits on my left hand…
bison
I think order makes some difference. As stated during the game last night. “Every spot in the order a player drops equals about 20 less at-bats over the season.” I’d say having a guy hit 3rd instead of 7th makes quite a bit of difference.
I’m with you that you want you good hitters hitting more often. Which is why Mauer should be batting either 1st or 2nd with Morneau in the 3rd spot. Gomez should be batting 9th.
Excellent post Howard. The glass is getting fuller but i still think it’s 40% empty. Kudos to Bill Smith I’m not sure if it’s skill or luck but the free agent acquisitions of Hernandez and Monroe have been paying huge divedends, unlike the last few years. I agree with your take on Mauer. I wonder what the record is for rbi’s in a season with no HR’s. The thing thats worrying me is the increasing umber of injuries we’re seeing this year. Maybe it just seems like there’s more this year but the majority seem to be to the pitchers. I still think our rotation will be the key to the Twins success this year.
The batting order does make some difference just not very much. If you purposefully did it backwards it would probably make a material difference but the way lineups are typically constructed is not very far off from optimal for most teams so the impact is negligable.
Here’s your 9 by OBP so far in ‘08
Mauer
Morneau
Monroe
Cuddyer
Harris
Young
Gomez
Lamb
Everett
I would like to see the following for the 1-3 spots of our batting order:
Gomez
Mauer
Morneau
followed by Cuddyer, Monroe/Kubel and the rest of the order.
I DO think they can and should move Mauer to the 2nd spot now. No way is he a no. 3 hitter and why can’t Morneau and Cuddy bat 3 and 4?
jama,
I remember reading that Delmon was going oppo in his first BP on the first day of ST. Maybe he was working on what he THOUGHT the Twins wanted.
I doubt that anyone had any input regarding his hitting BEFORE he took his first swings.
Delmon is one of those guys (like Mauer) that no hitting coach would adjust his swing for fear that you are going to crap on the Mona Lisa.
By career OBP
Mauer
Cuddyer
Morneau
Lamb
Harris
Young
Monroe
Everett
Gomez
[…] Also, be sure to check out Howard’s latest big-picture Twins assessment. A 20-17 pace plays out to an 88-74 record. I wouldn’t have bet you at the start of the season […]
Unfortunately, on run differential we project to 82-80 and baseball prospectus’ 3rd order statistice have us coming in at 79-83.
I thought we were a 70 win club so we’re showing promise but we’ve still got issues.
Projections are projections, I’m enjoying the success the Twins are having and the division is not going according to plan so there’s plenty to be optimistic about. Hell I’ve got the magic number on my white board…
Howard,
great post. My pre-season prediction was that the Twins will win the central with 87 wins, calculated in several different ways with the biggest differential from last year’s team being that last year they lost a ton of close games (and most within the division)that a better lineup would have reversed. This is exactly what is happening this year…
Now there is a flip side to this:
If the Twins do not get there, would Gardy be held accountable?
He should
Jama,
I stand corrected on the Delmon Young spray chart. Now if he can just put a few in the gaps, or over the fence.
BTW: using career OBP to ‘optimize’ last nights line up. Over an entire season the difference is 10 outs.
Batting order doesn’t matter very much.
Nice post Howard. Just an FYI, I believe the whole team was wearing the sleeveless jerseys last night, not just Livan. It’s one of their alternates.
Nick
Howard was stating that the Starting Pitcher gets to choose which uniforms the team wears during that game. When Livan starts he has been choosing the sleeveless variety.
Kay, well, my point was simply to point out that even your examples of Jeter and Suzuki have more HR power than Mauer…but the larger point there is Ichiro hits lead-off and Jeter bats second…so it’s either one or the other…either Mauer starts showing some power, or they have to move him up in the order where he belongs…they tried that for all of one week so far this year…
As for “leave him alone and let him hit”, first off, no one’s harassing Mauer…secondly, it appears to me that it’s that type of attitude which puts him in the 3-hole in the first place–this idea that Joe Mauer is the almighty Twin and no one dare question his throne. Dare I say it, he has not reached that plateau for me yet…
Just look at the numbers–he regressed last year…this year he is off to a hot start in OBP but no power…I think questioning how best to use him is more than fair as two separate ESPN commentators did the same in back-to-back nights (Jon Miller on Sunday, then Steve Phillips on Monday)…should they be asked to “leave him alone” as well?
One thing that needs to be pointed out on our 20-17 start, however, is the home v. away component…
we’ve played 21 of the 37 games at home…we’re still below .500 on the road…so you have to keep that in mind before you start penciling them in for 88-74
It’s hilarious the way many of you skewer the team regularly for whatever you perceive as their most glaring (your favorite) flaw(s). 1) This team has regularly been described (by MLB front-office personnel to sports writers to bloggers) as not being expected to contend until 2010. A small divisional lead in mid-May does not a playoff team make but it’s a heck of lot better than looking up in the standings at the leaders. I prefer to enjoy their start and not be consistently miserable as I suspect several of the posters here regularly are. 2) I love the way some complain that Vavra (and the rest of the coaching staff) ruins hitters. Hmmm…Justin Morneau got platooned in previous years because he couldn’t hit lefties. How quickly we forget that he was league MVP in 2006 and had 30 HRs in 2007. Is he ruined? If not, is it only because he’s a statistical aberration? Do we expect that he should be good for 50HRs a year? Cuddy for 30? Mauer for 30? Young for 30? Every year? I agree that I would prefer to see Mauer in the 2-spot, but that just ain’t the way things are today folks, so live with it. You can’t change it and the coaching staff probably won’t either. Mauer won a batting title in 2006. I fail to see how he’s been ruined. Just because you want him to be a power hitter doesn’t necessarily mean that he is one or should be one. Your fantasies about who should be hitting how many dingers do not a baseball reality make. 3) Seriously, would you please remember that it’s a team with lots of young players? If Young and Gomez underachieve(measured at the end of the season, not in mid-May) for 2008 and 2009, then get back to me in October 2009 and perhaps I’ll reconsider the possibility that they’ve being poorly coached, ruined or outright busts. In the meantime, suck it up! If the team is so painful for you to watch or listen to, then don’t watch or listen. 4) The same goes for Lamb, Everett, Harris, Monroe, Punto, Tolbert, Kubel, all of the starters, the entire bullpen and the coaching staff. Measure their success at the end of the season. I enjoyed the column, Howard and think most of your observations are accurate. I am greatly amused at the impatience of the critics I read here so I’ll keep reading…daily…and remind myself how much happier my life must be. Maybe I should change my screen name to Pollyana. 
Ty Cobb and Pete Rose didn’t hit too many homeruns…..they must be some of the worst players to ever grace the game.
Jason,
We have no quibble concerning where Mauer should hit in the order. By “leave him alone” I just meant all the clamoring for him to be a power/home run hitter. I completely agree that he should be batting 2nd, not 3rd. His attempts to satisfy all the critics wanting him to be Mr. Power last year were a failure. He’s back to his old approach, and getting hits and getting on base.
My chief criticism of him, which I guess is more a criticism of Gardy, is that he is not an RBI hitter, he’s not the guy I want stepping to the plate when there are ducks on the pond.
Great post, Howard.
I still find all the harping about lack of HRs to be pretty humorous. It got real loud in April when the Twins weren’t scoring as many runs as teams like the Tigers and White Sox. But you’d think that after catching up to those teams in average runs/game (not to mention a little thing called the standings), people would give it a bit of a rest. Guess not.
For those of you who care about this sort of stat, the Twins are scoring 6.3 runs per game in May against such cupcakes as the WhiteSox, Tigers, and Red Sox (all without a single HR this month from a Young, Morneau, Mauer or Lamb! how can that be?!). While those Tiger and White Sox teams with all the “power” people seem to covet have barely averaged over three and a half runs per game this month.
All three teams, by the way, are averaging within about a decimal point of a run of one another on the year, with Detroit and Chicago averaging 4.7 while the Twins are right behind at 4.6 runs per game.
Oh… and let’s not forget.. over 10% of the Tigers’ total run production for the year-to-date came in one game (a 19-6 drubbing of the Rangers).
And in case you’re wondering why I left the Indians out of this comparison, it’s only because their run production per game is even worse than the Tigers and White Sox… even with allllll that HR power in their line up.
Of course, the whole “pathetic season” if the Twins win the division but don’t have a guy hit 30 HRs pretty much sums up the intelligence of some folks.
The Twins have outscored everyone in the AL so far this month, except the Red Sox team they just took 3 of 4 from…. all despite only 3 teams in the league hitting fewer HRs.
This is baseball, folks… not Home Run Derby.
Howard, your comments are right on, as far as I am concerned. Looking at the long view is the right thing to do, not looking at the last game or the last week, otherwise we would have Lamb hitting in 486 double plays. I think the correct projection is about 84 wins. The reason I say this is that the Twins have won 2/3s of their home home games (54 wins over the whole season) and 6 of 16 on the road (30 wins for the season) so the Twins should come up with 84 wins total.
I think questioning how best to use him is more than fair as two separate ESPN commentators did the same in back-to-back nights (Jon Miller on Sunday, then Steve Phillips on Monday)…should they be asked to “leave him alone” as well?
This is what happens when the announcing team isn’t mandated to spout the company line. Personally I found the more objective commentary the last couple of days to be incredibly refreshing.
“If we had just lost 3 0f 4 you all would be saying the same thing.”
You’re right. We would complain, because then it wouldn’t be working.
My chief criticism of him, which I guess is more a criticism of Gardy, is that he is not an RBI hitter, he’s not the guy I want stepping to the plate when there are ducks on the pond.
Which is completely ridiculous given how well he hits in those situations.
“This is what happens when the announcing team isn’t mandated to spout the company line.”
It’s also what happens when the annoucing team isn’t familiar enough with the lineup to know the Twins don’t have a real #3 hitter.
For all the people that complain about Mauer hitting 3rd, I’ve yet to hear a valid suggestion to get him back 2nd. These same people hate Cuddyer, and are complaining that Young is nothing more than a singles hitter.
So who is it? Do they take a chance and slot Monroe up there?
I like the comparisons (2007 to 20008). A not more on the Gomez and Hunter comparision would have balanced things a bit. Also, what about Harris and Castillo? Lastly, do we dare look at the rotation? I’m a glass half full guy. Blackburn, Baker, Slowey and even Perkins all show promise. Boof has been better and Livan has been a nice suprise. Would Garza, Santana or Silva have been better this year?
Without looking too much in the rearview mirror, I think that we have a better team looking forward than we did with the 2007 version. There should be some good games played by this team in August and Sept (regardless of the standings)
Jason’s point is very true. If they can get through a 10-12 game road trip at .500, they could be for real. If not then it could be more of a struggle to be better than .500 for the year.
“they tried that for all of one week so far this year…”
And it was working. Then Cuddyer got hurt, Mauer went back to 3rd, and kept on hitting.
As far as Young’s “slump”…does anybody remember Morneau’s follow up to his explosive 2006 season?
It happens. You’re an unknown, you kick butt around the league, the scouts catch on to you, and you spend the following season getting used to the fact that teams now know how to pitch to you.
That’s why Lew Ford isn’t around anymore. And I seem to recall more than one point in 05 AND 07 people were ready to give up on Morneau as a flash in the pan.
For all the people that complain about Mauer hitting 3rd, I’ve yet to hear a valid suggestion to get him back 2nd. These same people hate Cuddyer, and are complaining that Young is nothing more than a singles hitter.
So who is it? Do they take a chance and slot Monroe up there?
I have yet to hear a valid reason against moving every hitter in the lineup up, getting the team’s better hitters more plate appearances. Is there a rule that states Morneau cannot hit 3rd?
T: “For all the people that complain about Mauer hitting 3rd, I’ve yet to hear a valid suggestion to get him back 2nd. These same people hate Cuddyer, and are complaining that Young is nothing more than a singles hitter.”
C’mon, T, now you’re just going to confuse people with the truth.
I’ve felt all along that Mauer is more suited to the #2 spot. But until someone steps up and demonstrates he’s a better option at #3 (or alternatively shows he could be a legitimate clean-up otion, allowing Morneau to move up to #3), Mauer’s obviously the best option for the #3 spot this team has.
T: “For all the people that complain about Mauer hitting 3rd, I’ve yet to hear a valid suggestion to get him back 2nd.”
I have provided a legitimate solution to Mauer hitting #2. However, I would not mess with the lineup at this time, as we seem to be going quite well right now.
But, I think the best solution, given the fact that Morneau wants to hit behind Mauer is to move the middle of the lineup up one spot. It becomes:
Gomez
Mauer
Morneau
Cuddy
etc
Again, I would do this only if the present lineup went into a funk.
Gardy doesn’t want to hit Mauer 3rd. It’s the hand he’s been dealt.
The batting order doesn’t matter. Replace Monroe’s OBP at DH w/ Redmond’s (ignoring the problems that causes you w/ substitutions and losing the DH) and that’s good for 30 extra baserunners. Reshuffleing the lineup is good for 10.
Who hits is far more important than what order they hit in.
Carlos, I wouldn’t have a major issue with moving guys up and hitting Cuddyer clean up.
It would also come with the additional benefit of providing hours of amusement around here as we get to read all the whining about having a guy with 1 HR and a slugging pct 40 points lower than Mauer’s batting clean up!
The batting order doesn’t matter.
The worst lineup you could put together with our starting 9 is 26 baserunners worse than the optimum batting order. If you bat Morneau, Cuddy, and Mauer 7,8,9 (and no one would ever do that) it costs you less than an out a week.
T: Young never dominated (he wasn’t all that good last year compared to the league, maybe compared to rookies, but not to the league), and if you are saying he’ll turn into Ford, I’m terrified by that trade. I don’t think that is what you meant to say, however.
sblake: so, what are we allowed to talk about? If we aren’t allowed to do anything but praise the team, how interesting would these comments be to read each day?
jimcrikket: you are one of the smartest posters on these boards, but I bet you are aware that teams that have little power don’t generally do well in the post season. The pitchers are better, and it is harder to string together hits. Dismissing the lack of power completely is as silly as complaining that they stink because they have no power. Neither extreme is true.
sblake - bless you.
“My chief criticism of him, which I guess is more a criticism of Gardy, is that he is not an RBI hitter, he’s not the guy I want stepping to the plate when there are ducks on the pond.”
“Which is completely ridiculous given how well he hits in those situations.”
How he hits in those situations is generally to put another body on the bases, if he does not ground into a double play. He’s not an RBI guy - his total on the year so far is only 3 more than Cuddyer, who, of course, was out for weeks.
T - I am one of the people who wants Mauer to bat 2nd, I have no Cuddy hate and think he can bat 4th.
Well, as I said near the top of this discussion, hitting singles is fine so long as everyone happens to be doing it at the same time…this is how the Twins managed to come up with 25 runs against Boston over the weekend (sans the long balls against Wakefield)…however, at some point, you’re going to need the occasional “field goal”, as Gardy calls it.
To that end, it is relevant to point out that the middle of our lineup, less Morneau, of Mauer, Cuddyer, and Young have a combined 1 HR…anyone who says that’s not relevant is either kidding themselves or doesn’t get it.
The most alarming of any of this might be Cuddyer, who really has no excuse not to be sending the ball out of the yard from time to time…at least with Young you can stick him in the 7-hole and not worry about it…also, hopefully Monroe can turn out to be a 25 HR guy…4 in 60 or so ABs is pretty darn good!
Apparently Shooter had a note today in his column that with one minor adjustment Mauer could be hitting 30-40 HRs (but he’d also strikeout 100 times)…heard it on The Common Man progrum on KFAN…
That statement by Shooter is all you need to know when it comes to how unrealistic Minnesotans are concerning Joe Mauer.
He may have the looks, he may have the perfect home address, he may have the athletic body and skills, but he’s no where close to a 5′9 fat guy named Kirby Puckett…not yet, anyway.
mauer hit 3rd over 130 times in 06 and they did ok. however i can see him hitting 2nd he takes pitches and being lh gets in the way a little when gomez tries to steel. is there a good reason why cuddy can’t bat 3rd? he hit behind mauer in the 4th spot most of 06. that gets rid of the dreaded 2 lh in row business.
now that Harris’ avg. has slipped below .260, I think it will be a lot easier to move Mauer to No. 2. Let’s see if and when Gardy pulls the trigger…
Hell, mike… I didn’t even realize we were allowed to mention post-season possibilities! I thought this season was all about trying to win 80 games!
It’s not my intention to “dismiss” power as a factor, especially in the post season. I was merely pointing out that there ARE other ways to score runs and win games. The way people talk on here, you’d think anyone not knocking the ball out every other day isn’t worth spit.
I also look over the names of the pitchers the Twins have beaten and see names like Verlander, Papelbon, Danks, Buehrle, Blanton, Wakefield, and Meche (twice). So opponents don’t seem to be sending just their scum to the mound against the Twins.
Don’t get me wrong… I’m as pleased as anyone to see Monroe show a little power and I’m still hopeful others will, too. But last I knew, the idea was still to outscore your opponent more often than they outscore you, regardless of how you accomplish that.
If it’s true that HR-hitting teams fare better in post season (and I’d probably want to see evidence before totally conceding that point), I’ll wait until I see the standings and the power numbers for some of these guys at the trade deadline before I worry too much about HOW the runs are being scored.
Jason,
I didn’t realize that Shooter is speaking for how Minnesotan’s feel about Mauer.(or anything)
But maybe its easier to identify with 5′9 fat guys than with someone with “the looks” and “the athletic body and skills.”
Besides, nobody could hate Kirby.
If Delmon heats up like he is supposed to, I’d rather see him in the 3rd spot behind Mauer than Cuddyer. I think Cuddyer is good where he is at 5th.
Hershiser made the comment last night on the ESPN televised Red Sox - Twins game that moving a batter up one spot in the order can amount to 20-30 more at bats over the course of a season. I think giving Mauer, the best hitter on the team, 20-30 more at bats is grounds for moving him up to the 2-hole.
agreed, socrates, that Shooter doesn’t speak for all of us…but it is an example of how delusional some can get when it comes to Mauer.
Look, let it be known, I really like having Mauer as our catcher…a big league catcher who hits over .300 and fields his position the Mauer does, but it does he appear he’s more suited for leadoff or No. 2
I’m sorry, but the whole RBI argument is almost as irritating as the HR business. RBI totals are much more dependent on runners being on base ahead of you than anything you do as a hitter. If a guy hitting .333 and leading the team in doubles isn’t getting enough RBI to suit you, you really need to look at something other than his “ability” to drive in runs. Like… maybe… that leadoff hitter you’ve got with an OBP of .299 perhaps?
Accordingly, Morneau’s 28 RBI might just have something to do with the guy hitting ahead of him having a .419 OBP.
The two guys hitting ahead of Mauer most of the time are 8th and 11th on the team in OBP. The guy hitting ahead of Morneau is first… by over 60 points… and is among the top few players in the league in that category.
RE: Mauer and RBIs.
If there are runners in scoring postion all you need is a single to get them in. Mauer not having RBIs is a consequence of opportunity and luck, not his skills.
Is there a rule that states Morneau cannot hit 3rd?
So instead of people spending half the blogs arguing if Mauer should be batting 3rd, we’ll see people spending half the blogs arguing if Cuddyer/Monroe/Young should be batting 4th.
To which people will respond “Well obviously Morneau is our slugger, so he should be hitting fourth!”
So it’ll be painfully obvious that Morneau’s the team’s cleanup man, and Mauer’s the obvious #2 hitter. And that we’ve got no guy that’s the “perfect” fit to hit between them.
Mauer
????
Morneau
PROFIT!
“Hell, mike… I didn’t even realize we were allowed to mention post-season possibilities! I thought this season was all about trying to win 80 games!”
This part made me laugh so hard I’m glad I didn’t have anything in my mouth, I’d have spittook (is that a past tense?) right into my monitor at work.
Ok, so I’ve heard that post-season HR thing, but I’ve never actually checked the stats on it. It’s probably one of those baseball “truisms” that doesn’t hold up under scrutiny - I have no idea.
I think its funny/sad how quickly this discussion degenerated into a discussion about Young and Mauer, and got off the topic of expectations versus achievement (sorry for contributing).
and if you are saying he’ll turn into Ford, I’m terrified by that trade. I don’t think that is what you meant to say, however.
Morneau/Ford was my example of a player who was able to readjust to the league figuring him out, while Ford is my example of a player that never could find himself after the league caught on.
JimCrikket we’ve been over this…seemingly all last summer…it’s the same mentality of those who are cool with singles…of course you need people on base if all you are going to do is hit singles, but a hitter has a chance for an RBI every time he steps to the plate…so the RBI total does matter.
For instance, Craig Monroe has managed the same amount of RBI as Mauer (15) in half as many at bats (69). Last I checked, it was Mauer, not Monroe, who hits behind the so-called ‘get on base’ guys.
Response? Or is it all Go-go and Harris’ fault?
but a hitter has a chance for an RBI every time he steps to the plate…
If only there was a magical player who could hit a homerun every time.
Or an evern more magical player who could manifest runners in scoring position every time.
I should add that a hitter has a chance to make an out every time he steps to the plate…
I guess that means guys like Nick Punto, Adam Everett, and most NL pitchers are baseball gods since they don’t make an out 100% of the time.
Jason, it may be Mauer who hits behind the “so-called” get on base guys, but those guys aren’t getting on base! If they were, I contend, a guy hitting .333 and leading the team in doubles would have a heckuva lot more RBI.
Mauer may be hitting behind the guys who are SUPPOSED to be getting on base, but Monroe’s hitting behind the guys who ARE getting on base. Remember, only 4 of those RBI are “self driven in” by HRs.
If Mauer had 4 HRs, I’d imagine 3 of them would be solo shots.
I love watching Gomez as much as the next guy… but he’s NOT getting on base the way a guy at the top of the order is supposed to.
Once again, I think Mauer would make a great #2 hitter… if we had anyone else to hit third (and I agree with T that having Morneau hit there would only shift the debate to what crud we have hitting 4th and how Morneau should hit there).
Like bisonaudit said, RBI are about opportunity. If Mauer had opportunities that a #3 hitter should have, his hits would have driven in runs.
I agree with everything JimCrikket just typed, but I’d still like more power from Mauer
Is there a hitting stat that takes into account double plays as worse than ABs that only generate 1 out? I’m not convinced mauer hits into a lot of them, but is seems that way.
JimCrikket, thanks for that, see how you like this one.
Mauer 2
Redmond 10
Cuddyer 9
Monreau 3
Lamb 5
Harris 4
Young 7
Everett 6
Gomez 8
I agree mike… Mauer and Morneau both hit in to more DP than I’d like. In fact, if there’s an argument AGAINST moving Mauer up to #2, it might be that he’d be prone to erasing Gomez in DP too often, before Gomez could get a chance to steal 2nd. That’s pure speculation, of course.
I do suspect, however, that some of Mauer’s DPs have come when he’s tried to do what people here actually want him to do… pull the ball with power. When he’s satisfied with spraying the ball gap-to-gap, he grounds to the 2B less often.
I don’t know about Mauer specificly re: GDP but the boys at Baseball Prospectus don’t get to worked up about GDP at least in the general sense.
“There is also evidence, from Tom Ruane, that players who hit into more DP also tend to advance more runners with outs, enough to offset the DPs”
OK one more post before I really DO need to get some work done today.
Howard… one thing in your post that you didn’t mention (at least not directly) with regard to the “enhancements” made this year by Smith is something I think is critical. Positional depth.
Yes, for the most part, the starting position players were improvements over last year’s line up. But where the difference really becomes noticeable, to me, is when you decide to rest a guy or need a pinch hitter.
Last season, if you were Gardy, you looked at your bench and saw Luis, Tyner, Ford, and Redmond (all of them pressed in to DH duty regularly) This year, you have Kubel/Monroe (whichever isn’t DHing), Tolbert, Punto and Redmond… and you never have to DH any of the latter three! If Tolbert and/or Punto are in your lineup, you’ve got Harris and Lamb available to hit later.
Those are much more legitimate options to play with.
The difference concerning Punto alone demonstrates the overall improvement. Last year, a laughingstock as a starting 3B… this year, perhaps one of the most valuable (if still somewhat flawed) utility infielders in the league.
Excellent point Jim C that alone should help this offense improve as the year goes on.
Young is ummmmmmmm “YOUNG” How do we know he will be worse this season until the end of the season. A season is a long time and even longer for a young player to learn and change and develop. I was hoping the young players would develop over the course of this season so we would be ready next year. Winning is a bonus this early but it does not change the fact that the kids need time.
Even if the team is playing well, the goal is still the youth movement. Trades made to improve the team should be done to not only help this season, but not impede the team’s ability to continue building around its young core.
If they can move Livan before the deadline for anyone under 28 with a pulse, they should.
Thank you Howard for some common sense on the subject of how well the Twins are doing. I have no doubt that the pissing and moaning will continue however. The Twins will never win as long as blah blah blah ad nauseum.
I have to tell you, when Boston came to town I thought a split in the series would be a good outcome. I had no idea we would score so many runs. This team plays to win. It’s interesting to watch a fairly randomly-assembled group of athletes come together to form a team, and that’s what seems to be happening here. Also, if Boston’s pitching is really as weak as they showed in this series, maybe we can actually do some damage in the post-season. Boston’s pitching sucks. The Yankees’ young pitchers can’t get anyone out. The toughest team we’ve played this year is Oakland, who is another team that wasn’t supposed to be in first place.
“Ok, so I’ve heard that post-season HR thing, but I’ve never actually checked the stats on it. It’s probably one of those baseball “truisms” that doesn’t hold up under scrutiny - I have no idea.”
Let’s look.
Last year, Boston was 18th in MLB in total number of home runs hit. They were 2nd in team ERA. The year before, The Cardinals were 12th in home runs hit and 16th in team ERA. 2005, Chicago was 5th in home runs and 4th in ERA. Going back to 2000 (because that’s where the data I had stopped) the average ranking for the World Series champion was 12th in home runs hit and 8th in ERA. If we add in their opponents into the mix, the average ranking for the teams that play in the World Series is 11th for total home runs hit and 7th for ERA. Of the 16 teams to play in the World Series in the past 8 seasons, only 3 have been in the top 5 in the league in total home runs hit (The ‘05 White Sox were 5th, the ‘04 Red Sox were 5th, and the ‘03 Yankees were 4th) while 9 teams have had a top 5 ERA (the rankings were 1st, 4 2nds, a 3rd, and 3 4ths). On the flip side, 4 teams made the World Series in spite of being in the bottom half of the league in homers (18th, 16th, 19th, and 21st) while 2 teams with a lower than league average ERA made it (two 16ths). One final way to look at the information I have is to count the number of participants who had a higher ranking in homeruns than they did in team ERA. There are only 4 teams who have made it to the World Series that ranked better in home runs hit than in team ERA.
Looking at this information, I would argue that it is more important to be a good pitching team than one who hits a lot of home runs. If anyone wanted to, or if I find myself bored lately, I suppose we can go and look at all the teams that made the playoffs, and then find out if the ones that hit more homeruns won more playoff series. But looking at the past 8 World Series only, they are split, with 4 teams who hit more home runs winning the series and 4 teams who hit fewer home runs winning.
“Even if the team is playing well, the goal is still the youth movement. ”
I don’t think I can agree with this statement. The goal should ALWAYS be the World Series. Of course, you need to be realistic about your chances of getting there, but dealing your “ace” pitcher when you are leading the division is not the right move.
This isn’t to say that the Twins should move any of their core young guys for veterans in an attempt to win it all this year. But there are a lot of arms down in triple A that some team might be interested in, and might not fit into the plans for 2010 and beyond.
Pete — great post on the perceived value of HRs towards winning it all. Thanks for doing all that research. I have always felt pitching was #1 and good defense in support of pitching was part of that.
The only thing that says ace in Livan’s performance is his record. Just because we’ve got 3 #3s a 4 and a 5 starter doesn’t make him an ‘ace’. Second worse opponent BA, OPS, and SLG, worst WHIP, second worst K/BB ratio and more HRs allowed than any of the starters. But hey… ‘If you wan’t to crown ‘em. Crown his a$$’
Dave T - well said. This team does come to play and plays hard. That’s one of the elements I really like about these kids. I despise those teams and players with the arrogant and I-couldn’t-care-less attitudes.
As for who we have played, I think Angels and A’s along with Red Sox are formidable opponents. I wouldn’t count out the world champs after one series. (Note, it was nice not to have to face Beckett).
It was conservatively and reasonably expected that Cuddy/Young/Lamb would hit 50-60 HR’s this year. So far, they’ve got 1.
And I like Howard’s calm analysis overall, EXCEPT….
His rejection of the the “send ‘em back to Houston” movement. Because Lamb really has let the team down offensively. Not acceptable, any more than Punto was acceptable at 3B last year.
romer, the difference in my mind between Lamb this year and LNP last year is that years with respectable offensive production from Lamb have been more commonplace while Punto’s productive year in 2006 was more the exception than the rule.
It’s for that reason that I’m willing to cut Lamb a bit of slack and not rush to send him packing. Over three of the past four years, he’s hit for a respectable average (.288, .289 and .307) and he’s hit 11-14 HR without ever getting 400 AB in that period.
He seems to be making better contact and has raised his average to .230ish… so I still think there’s some hope.
“The only thing that says ace in Livan’s performance is his record.”
Not the fact that he held Detroit to one run (over 6 or 7), Boston to three (over 6), and went the distance against Chicago, giving up only a solo homer in the 9th?
“Of course, you need to be realistic about your chances of getting there, but dealing your “ace” pitcher when you are leading the division is not the right move.”
I’d be more willing to trade Livan if he performs as he has but the Twins lose their current footing.
I don’t want it to happen.
Is there a record for the number of comments posted by the same person under the same blog entry? Do you tap out singles all day after such an enlightening post from Mr. Sinker or do you think it over and package the bluster in a few big cuts? So many ways to dot the ‘i’.
Here is my 2 cents: I am sick of the Minnesota Twins being a training/development grounds for players to become great and then letting them go to other teams once they’ve developed. What it comes down to is money - the unfortunate ‘Bottom Line’. If the Pohlads would loosen up the grip on some of their Benjamins and maybe spend some money then Minnesota might have a fighting chance at winning a World Series. So far it seems the Twins have simply been a training/development grounds for players to become great and then when it takes a little more money to keep them, the ‘higher ups’ dont show up for the bidding and end up letting these great players leave for other teams - all b/c the Twins organization wont spend the money to keep or acquire great players . . . look at Santana, Hunter, etc. Until more money gets spent - things wont change for the Twins. And there is nothing against the guys on the team now - they play hard and do well, but the ‘higher ups’ arent putting (or keeping) great players on the team - but instead they opt for the lower price tag and go for the new, younger guys . . . and the cycle starts again . . . new, younger guys develop into great players with the Twins, their price tag goes up, and the Twins let them go. As an existing veteran player on the team, that would get very frusterating - how are you supposed to win a World Series with that?
