Santana or Gomez? An alternative point of view
Posted on May 21st, 2008 – 12:12 PMBy Howard
Frequent commenter Seth, whose blog Seth Speaks is a must-read for Twins fans, offered this comment in response to my post this morning about the performance of several former Twins pitchers. It’s a different point of view than the “Sign Johan” position that was staked out in Section 220 during the off-season. Here’s what Seth wrote:
Let me go a bit controversial here…
(Johan) Santana has been very good for the Mets so far, very typical of what he did with the Twins. I believe he has five wins to this point and an ERA (of 3.30). How many wins would he have with the Twins at this point? How many wins would he have helped the Twins get?
I’m not going to back this statistically at all, but just theorizing: Has Carlos Gomez already helped the Twins to more wins than Johan would have been able to? I would argue that when Gomez is in the lineup, the Twins have done better and in several cases, he has had a very direct effect on the Twins wins.
Meanwhile, starting pitching has not been the Twins problem at all. In fact, which Twins starter would not be in the rotation if Santana was still here? Probably Nick Blackburn… and how is he doing so far?
In other words, this is a perfect illustration of why giving crazy years and dollars to any one player makes no sense.
You agree or disagree?
other people are here too
129 Responses to "Santana or Gomez? An alternative point of view"
My goodness…
Yeah, the Twins definitely got the better end of the Santana deal, no doubt about it…Gomez is a future 40/40 guy and Santana most definitely is past his prime.
All the people bashing Seth so far have been very enlightening. Thanks for sharing.
Seth was not downplaying Johan’s worth or the Mets’ intelligence. He’s trying to provide an alternate and optimistic point of view for the season up until this point.
Let me try rewording Seth’s statement a bit… If we replace Blackburn’s starts with Johan’s starts, and then we replace Carlos Gomez’s with Span/Pridie through the first 45 games of the season, is this team really sitting much different in the standings?
I suppose someone will jump all over me because of Span’s gaudy small sample size AAA stats this year. So be it.
In no way was Seth implying that Johan would be useless to the Twins or that the Mets were stupid.
Here’s a question, Seth…
Gomez leads the Twins in strikeouts with 44. He’s also provided 11 0-fer nights out of 39 games played with at least one at-bat…he also has one of the lowest OBP among lead-off guys…the Twins have 23 losses:
How many games did Carlos Gomez help us LOSE? Can we pencil him in for 10? 12?
I think that the trade will work out fine for the Twins, especially in the long run, but I admit that I would’ve liked to have kept Santana. Players of his ability are rare and it would have been nice to have him pitch his whole career in one city, but it’s more of an emotional feelings for wanting to keep him, and there were plenty of other reasons to make the trade.
I was a big fan of Johan, still am. I understand the philosophy of not signing one guy to a big contract but I’d feel better if we had just a couple more viable candidates in the lineup. I think Gomez is great, just what this team needed…a sparkplug. Almost fell off the couch last night when he blasted a triple off the first pitch. Yes he’s young and still learning but I love his intensity and enthusiasm. Go Twins!!
mini is absolutely right…
if you take truly unrealistic scenarios and use tremendously small sample sizes (like 1.5 months) and fidget here and there, you can pretty much make any point you want. Dick Bremer has made a living off this.
Thus, whatever overall statement Seth was going for–whether it be that Gomez for Santana has been a wash so far, or the trade was completely justified on the Twins end, or the Twins got a big steal, or the Mets overpaid / overdealt, or that Gomez is more valuable than Santana…whatever point he was trying to make is hardly supported by these citations.
Gee.
I expected Gomez for Santana to be an even trade. I thought that the extra $150 million the Mets will pay Santana was a non-factor.
If that’s not true, the Twins should NEVER have offered Santana in trade, no matter how much we wanted Gomez.
In any case it’s not gonna be known for a few years if the trade works out, because Santana could have a great year this year, or for two years and then get hurt and go down hill from there, or Gomez could have a great rookie year and then become a faster Angel Berroa.
I think Gomez is a tremendous spark-plug and the lineup has a different feel when he’s playing - just seems to have more ‘juice’. That said, I agree with Jason that some of his poor games may have cost us wins. Have to look at both sides.
I don’t know if the Twins came out ahead in the Santana deal, but they at least broke even. The chance that Gomez will have a higher upside is far greater than Santana getting better than he has been to date. Gardy protected Santana’s pitch count, keeping it near 100/game. His most recent totals with the Mets have him near 115/game. Saw him pitch against the Diamondbacks a few weeks ago and, despite a “juiced up, Comerica-like” speed gun, he was 88-92. And it wasn’t cold in Phoenix. I have said it before..Gomez will be driving the Twins bus as the Puckett-like leader in a year or two. I can hardly wait.
Seth’s point is valid if you are arguing the case of the small market team just being happy to remain reasonably competitive. Getting everyday players has more impact over a season.
If you are an organization interested in competing in the playoffs over next few years however and less worried about resources, you take the best pitcher in baseball over gomez/minor leaguers to start game 1 and 4 of the world series.
If the trade can be closer in 2008, and if Gomez plays like he has the last month, it should be, that’s all we could have hoped for…
then starting in 2009, when Santana would have been gone, we can compare 0 help from Santana to the positives of Gomez, and possibly Philip Humber out of the bullpen, and maybe Kevin Mulvey in the middle or back end of the rotation, and in a couple of years, maybe Deolis Guerra.
Another question, this time for sane: are we as fans seeing any of this saved money? Have ticket prices been reduced as a result (or not raised at a higher rate)? Have they reinvested the money in free agents or hired better coaches? Are they putting towards neat new features on the game broadcasts?
My point is I will only cite the money saved element of this equation if it’s apparent that the money saved actually is realized elsewhere from a fan’s perspective.
And rory’s absolutely right, too. We don’t know anything about the relative returns of this trade yet. To even hint otherwise is laughable.
I find it odd how you can deduce in analyzing a month and a half worth of games between a starting pitcher and a position player how many games each player ‘won’ for their perspective teams and make any sort of conclusion, no matter how passive or petty, about the trade from that.
I think the Twins are about where they’d be with Johan. I’m not sure that means a whole lot less than two months into the season.
On the other hand, we’d be much better off right now with Garza, Bartlett, and Morlan still around.
“If you are an organization interested in competing in the playoffs over next few years however and less worried about resources, you take the best pitcher in baseball over gomez/minor leaguers to start game 1 and 4 of the world series.”
How are the Mets doing? Are they currently competing for a playoff spot? Does anyone think that they need to worry about Games 1 and 4 of the World Series?
Jason, Gomez a 40/40 guy?! You have to be kidding me. The SB’s are a lock but he will in no way approach 40 HR’s even though he will be a good leadoff hitter/center fielder for 10 to 12 years. 40 HR’s though? Get real
Hoffy,
Maybe he meant 40 Doubles??? No way Gomez hits 40 HR. The Whole 40/40 gets tossed around too much.
Jason,
“are we as fans seeing any of this saved money?”
So far, only in the Morneau, Nathan and Cuddyer extensions.
The trade came too late to help in the 2008 FA market.
The June draft(s) and future FA acquisitions will indicate if the Twins intend to spend or pocket the $38 million per year in saved money.
Peter,
Barlett has 5 XBH’s in 152 AB’s with 8 RBI’s, 18 runs, an OBP of .288 and an average of .250, not to mention his 5 errors.
Garza is 2-1 with an ERA of 4.86, 16 BB’s and 15 K’s.
Morlan has an ERA of 8.10 and has allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in 6.2 IP so far this year and is currently on the disabled list.
I’m not exactly crying, just saying…
Jason,
Stop posting, your wasting space!
the 40/40 comment was sarcasm, folks.
Uh, I think the 40/40 comment was sarcastic.
live video Q and A with Doug Mientkiewicz currently on the Pirates website if anyone is interested…we’ll see if he claims once again that the Metrodome baggie cost him a lot of homeruns…
“Yeah, the Twins definitely got the better end of the Santana deal, no doubt about it…Gomez is a future 40/40 guy and Santana most definitely is past his prime.”
Santana past his prime? I’m hoping your post is laced with sarcasm, because that statement is just plain dumb.
Guerra is a future ace, Mulvey has been a good surprise, and Gomez is the heart of the team. In the long run this deal is better for the twins.
Perhaps we need to do something so everyone will understand when a post is sarcastic or not… Maybe put a little *sarcastic* at the end of the post or maybe a *sc* or perhaps just a “Please do not take this seriously, I was just joking” - too wordy?
*sighs*
“The June draft(s) and future FA acquisitions will indicate if the Twins intend to spend or pocket the $38 million per year in saved money.”
I think this is a key point. I really don’t need them to tell me dollar for dollar how they’re going to spend that money. My hope is that we will see them willing to take the top available player in the June draft and not not draft him because of signability.
I’m also not so worried about Free Agent Acquisitions. What I would like to see the Twins do is be able to sign more of their own players before they become free agents. They did that with Radke, Santana and Hunter (keeping them beyond their first free agent year). They’ve now done it with Morneau, Mauer, Nathan, Cuddyer. Hopefully there will be more of that when appropriate.
My biggest comment is that even with additional revenues when the Twins get into the new stadium, I hope they don’t just spend money to spend money. I hope they make moves that make sense.
front office guy…
and making proclamations about the two major components of the Santana trade’s relative worth to their respective ballclubs 1.5 months into the 2008 season isn’t wasting space?
And if the observation wasn’t made to make a point, then what was it? We’re well aware of Santana’s stats this year and we’re even more aware of what Gomez has done this year.
Guidelines for MY posts:
If the statement is stupid, ignorant or just plain WRONG, consider it sarcasm.(please?)
If the statement is NOT stupid, ignorant or just plain WRONG, consider it serious. (or not)
I’ll wait for Gleeman or Ubelmann to actually run some numbers on Gomez, rather than believe Gomez is winning games by himself just because he’s fun to watch (which seems to be Seth’s method of analyzation).
I’m really excited about Gomez’ potential, but right now he’s the Twins most overrated player.
Wake me up when his OBP is above .320.
And in the meanwhile, the money can soak up interest somewhere…
paying Cuddyer past his FA eligibility has yet to return dividends….
There are definitely examples where big money and big years haven’t paid off (bet the Dodgers wish they could get their $38 million for Andruw Jones back), but there are plenty of other instances where locking someone up for big money and big years has worked out…the Yankees were so pleased with assuming A-Rod’s big money, big years contract that they re-upped him at the end of it…
the point is, to say that you can make a conclusion on whether or not declining to make Santana a big money, big years guy based on what we’ve seen from him in NY this season or what we’ve seen from Gomez here is quite a stretch, if not an impossibility.
Whether he’s past his prime or not, I don’t know… but at this point, there are at least 10 starting pitchers in the National League alone having years at least as good and most likely better than Santana. So if you consider his “prime” to be a period of 3-4 years when he was CY-calibre… I dunno.
Heck, he’s being matched stat for stat by another guy in his own rotation… and his team is STILL winning no more than the Twins are, in a league where the pitchers hit.
Maybe, if he comes back with a sub-2.00 ERA in June like he did with the Twins last year, we can talk about Santana still being in his “prime”. But he was not worthy of even CY discussion last season and he’s not looking any different this year.
The Twins chose not to overpay for a good pitcher and got some pretty good talent in a trade rather than keeping him for one more year and seeing him walk (which we all KNOW he would have done).
Seth,
“I’m also not so worried about Free Agent Acquisitions”
I agree.
What I should have said was:
Will the Twins trade prospects for (relatively) high salaried players when necessary to fill holes?
FA acquisitions have questionable value, since their previous team determined them to be asking for too much money.
I agree with him that up to this point he would not have had made a huge differance. I disagree with this part “In other words, this is a perfect illustration of why giving crazy years and dollars to any one player makes no sense.” Aks the Mets how much Santana would have been worth during there September collapse last year.
more overrated than Cuddyer, Chazz?
Cuddy holds the fifth spot in our lineup with these numbers:
.225 avg, 1 HR, 14 RBI, .277 OBP
Salary: $5,916,666
Having said that, by the way, I do think the Twins did the right thing by not signing Johan, and that the trade has a good chance to favor them long term.
I’ll bet my salary the Twins don’t use that money to sign a FA still in the prime of his career. No chance, none, zero, notta, nil that they will use the money to make the team better in any big splash kind of way.
As for Seth’s point:
The trade does count for this year’s standings, so this year has to be part of the judgement. I’d say they’d have about the same record. Frankly, they aren’t good enough to do much more than this. Don’t give the Twins brass too much credit for Blackburn, remember, they wanted Slowey, Baker and Liriano in the rotation, not Blackburn.
The trade also counts for the future. Humber looks like a bust so far - not yet recovering from his surgery. Mulvey has been inconsistent, so we can’t be sure he’ll be in the rotation (though I think he has a chance, he purportedly has some good stuff still). Guerra, I’ve read conflicting things on line about him. Gomez - he looks exciting, but since the Twins have developed 2 hitters in 10 years, I’m not confident this is the staff to make him into a star. He certainly has a chance to be very good.
I don’t think Cuddyer is rated that high. I think he’s terrible and everyone knows it.
So yeah.
Oh, Santana needed to be traded. Too much money for one player with this team.
“if you take truly unrealistic scenarios and use tremendously small sample sizes (like 1.5 months) and fidget here and there, you can pretty much make any point you want.”
This coming from the exact same guy who was pissed that the Twins pinch hit for Adam Everett with Mike Redmond…odd.
you don’t think $5.9 million is rated that high?
Pete if you want to go back there i’ll stand by that criticism until the day i die…EVERYONE in my foursome last night agreed that was an oversight by Gardy.
Like I said yesterday, find me one other scenario where an AL manager, trailing in the ninth, uses his bench such that he would be left with no DH in extra inning AND no further bench moves (meaning pitchers would have to bat). It just doesn’t happen.
By the way, I don’t see how that has anything to do with my critique Seth’s use of the Santana / Gomez numbers to prove that locking up a big money player for many years is silly.
What does his salary have to do with whether or not he’s been overrated this season? I’m talking about the public perception of them as players. The fans and media had nothing to do with Cuddyer getting paid that much, but they are the ones overrating Gomez - in my opinion.
Seth doesn’t know what he is talking about, again. The one thing Santana brought the Twins is confidence in the games he pitched. Who has confidence in Gomez in the clutch.
I agree I think someday we will look at that trade and say the twins got the better deal. Anyone who has watched the Twins this year can see Gomez is going to be a game changing super star.
well, he’s also a regular guest on KFAN’s PA and Dubay show…I see his jersey everywhere at Twins games…my sense is he’s rated pretty high by the fans…the Gomez buzz mainly derives from the fact that he is bringing something to this club that we haven’t had since the early Christian Guzman days…except he’s doing it with even more pizazz.
Although I will say when both Dick and Bert and Gladden started in with the Ricky Henderson comparisons from Day One, that may have been overrating things a touch.
“I’ll wait for Gleeman or Ubelmann to actually run some numbers on Gomez, rather than believe Gomez is winning games by himself”
I won’t believe the stove is hot until I actually see the temperature, even though the skin is burning off my fingers.
Here’s my take. Santana is great and will be for a few years to come. I wish he was in a Twins uniform, but am not upset with him being gone. I know the sample size is way to small to say who has come out best from the trade. But, my opinion is the Twins came out on top. Santana is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, but he plays every 5 days. He’s 29, in his prime and any club would want him as their ace. Gomez is 22, learning on the job, and has about as high a ceiling as anyone i can think of. No one on the twins pitching staff is as good as Santana, not close. But, look at how the staff has performed. It’s a good rotation without Liriano and Baker right now. Starting pitching is very important, but to give Santana that type of money to play every 5 days would be dumb, especially for the Twins. The spark Gomez brings every day, and the potential this guy has at the ripe age of 22 is well worth it for me. Plus, there’s the 3 arms we got in the trade as well, which will all hopefully contribute to the big club eventually. With the surplus of arms the organization has, this was a good trade. None of them are Johan, but if the 5 guys in that rotation keep pitching solid like they are, I for one don’t miss Santana much at all. Imagine what this team could be 2 years down the road? With Liriano back to form, and people like Young and Gomez reaching even close to what their potential is. Add to it guys like Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer only getting better. If these guys can reach their potential and stay or get healthy, this is an extremely scary team in 2 years. 2010 seems like perfect timing for a championship run! But that’s just me. *not sarcastic* 
“Are they putting towards neat new features on the game broadcasts?”
Wouldn’t game broadcasts be FSN’s department?
I mean, I loves some good ol’ fashion FO-Tightwad Bashin’, but at least direct that at places where it’d actually have an impact.
“EVERYONE in my foursome last night agreed that was an oversight by Gardy.”
Well there you have it, Jason and his Baseball Brain Trust have just declared it a foolish move. Let us step down from our own opinions and recognize that this motion has been made and seconded.
To be honest, Gomez has probably lost more games for the Twins than Santana would have, but I am sure he has won more as well. Gotta remember that Santana only plays every 5th. day.
Gomez has had a more positive impact on this team than most of us would have predicted before the season.
He saved, maybe even won the game for the Twins where he hurt his wrist banging into the wall. He probably won the game with his sliding catch in center against the White Sox? Those are two late game heroics from him that kept a ball from scoring runs, and in the case of the hurt wrist, actually ended the game. Those are 2 catchs that actually stick out at very huge moments in games, I am sure that there are others as well.
If Santana has an O’fer, when he is pitching a shutout, does that diminish his day? Surely it must if you consider an O’fer at the plate as the only basis for success on any given day. Otherwise, Gomez’s defense would be given equal weight to Santana’s pitching performance.
Very good hypothetical question. I think it’s a wash. Like Seth said, starting pitching has not been much of a problem so far. Although, had we kept Santana and Span was in center over Gomez and Blackburn was not in the rotation, how much difference would there be? Span & Santana, or Gomez & Blackburn… I think we’d still be 23-22 no matter what.
I still look at it from the perspective that we gave up a SINGLE year of Santana (knowing full-well we weren’t going to re-sign him), for what will be, what is it, like 4 guaranteed years of Gomez…and we got 3 other players in that deal.
Even with Just Gomez I think you come out ahead, but with the other guys thrown in the mix I think it’s beautiful.
good take Nicky Poo, except for one part: Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer only getting better?
Umm…Kubel is staying the same…same as he ever was….Cuddyer has been on a steady regress since 2006. Mauer won a batting title in ‘06; all of his offensive numbers have been in regress since then…Morneau i’ll give you–that guy’s a stud any way you slice it.
Sid - you’re right. There’s evidence everywhere that Gomez has been single-handedly winning games. I guess I should take my head out of the sand and realize it. I mean, that .301 OBP really says it all. The stove is hot baby!! Watch out ya dont get burned!!!
If, by “confidence”, you mean his team mates were confident last year that he was going to give up a couple of HRs every start… yeah.
As for Gomez’s contribution so far… I posted last Friday his “runs created” using several of Bill James’ formulas for such and using those formulas, he was responsible for creating a bit over 10% of the team’s total runs at that point (roughly the same as Mauer). Nobody “wins games by himself”, but I think it’s fair to say he’s been a significant contributor to whatever success the Twins have had, especially when you consider that if he hadn’t been in Spring Training, we’d have had Denard Span starting in CF. Not dismissing Span totally, but I believe there’s a significant difference in their talent at this point.
That said, whether Gomez is truly a lead off hitter, in the historical mold, is a fair topic for debate. I really don’t see a better option on this roster, though.
LOL thanks T for appreciating that my foursome can end all debates!
Seriously though, no one else among us will argue that Gardy would do it all again in setting his extra inning lineup up for pitchers batting the rest of the way…it was an oversight, plain and simple.
Just think of how embarassing that would’ve been if that game goes 15 innings and Brian Bass steps to the plate with RISP.
If we didn’t use a small sample size to make our judgments, what else would we have to talk about? You mean we have to wait until the All-Star game to have something to discuss?? I’ll go ahead and make my judgments now knowing that I’ll revamp them as time goes on…
We all know the Twins weren’t going to sign Johan to the $$ he wanted, so we got some good young players who have potential to be great instead. Gomez is fun to watch every game. He may have a lot of strike outs but over the last month he has a .299 average and an OPS of .835. Wait… that’s a small sample size though.
I know Kubel, Mauer, and Cuddyer aren’t what we want them to be right now. What i was trying to say is imagine what they could be in 2 years. All these guys are still pretty young. I know 1/2 of them could be busts, not get any better, but the potential is defitely there. Cuddyer probably is what he is, but the other three aren’t even very close to 30 years of age yet….the potential is still there.
I like his way of thinking. That’s for sure. That gives us a great opportunity to improve. And It’s an excellent way for the fans to look at it.
And in other news…Lew Ford is back in the saddle with the Hanshin Tigers and is 4-for-8 since his recall from the Japanese minors…which has soared his average from .170 to .207. I had to throw it in there for old times’ sake.
Hanshin is also leading the Central League by 3.5 games.
Nicky Poo, don’t other teams have guys under 30 that will improve too? If so, then the Twins are treading water. Everyone that isn’t “done” has potential for more.
That said, I agree that Kubel and Mauer could/will be better than they are right now. I don’t believe in Cuddeyer as anything more than average at best (though this is much worse than I expected him to be).
“if you take truly unrealistic scenarios and use tremendously small sample sizes (like 1.5 months) and fidget here and there, you can pretty much make any point you want.”
That’s what we DO here!
Don’t take that away from me!!!
As I said in the prior thread, I actually think it’s Hernandez that wouldn’t be in the rotation if the Twins had decided to keep Santana for one more year before letting him walk.
Hernandez may crash and burn the rest of the season, I know… but at this point in time, I can’t believe the Twins would have won any more of Santana’s starts than they have of Livan’s.
So yeah… you let Santana go, get 3 arms (including one potentially very good young arm) and Gomez… and you sign Hernandez… in return for losing this one season of Santana.
Hard for me to see how the Twins aren’t better off for having made that deal, at this point. Maybe in September, if they’re a game or two out of the division lead or the wild card spot, having Santana would come in real handy. But that’s a pretty big “if”, and I’d still argue you might not be in that situation (even with Santana) if you have Span in CF instead of Gomez.
I just think it’s way too early to tell…..but hey, I guess we live in an “I told you so” world.
On that note, “I told you” giving Cuddy a big pay day would not be a smart move…you figure they had to do it, but you could kind of see the writing on the wall.
“So yeah… you let Santana go, get 3 arms (including one potentially very good young arm) and Gomez… and you sign Hernandez… in return for losing this one season of Santana.”
Plus save Santana’s salary which can be used to acquire other player(s).
JC, I thought they signed Livan before Santana was dealt.
Whatever the case, he struck me as more a replacement for Silva than anything else.
And frankly I’m glad the Twins were able to get something for Santana before it was too late and he walked after 08. Because I don’t know how fun it would be to watch this team knowing it was Santana’s Farewell Tour.
key word is ‘can’
Nicky Poo, don’t other teams have guys under 30 that will improve too? If so, then the Twins are treading water. Everyone that isn’t “done” has potential for more.
Of course they do. I couldn’t disagree with you more when you say the Twins are treading water. I guess what i should have said is the Twins are one of the youngest teams in baseball. The team is pretty good already, but i’ll admit they look like crap at times. What i meant was this is a good young team, with some really young guys who could make this team great in a couple years. It’s only potential though, the Twins could very well be the worst team in baseball two years from now. But, from what i’ve seen so far this year…I see a scary team in 2 years.
Just my opinion Mike
T, I was pretty sure they signed Hernandez after the trade because I remember the Mets blogs mentioning Hernandez as a possibility if they didn’t get Santana.
Went back and checked. The Twins announced the Santana trade Feb 2 and the Hernandez signing Feb 12.
I just don’t think they would have felt the need for an “innings eater” if Santana was still going to be around.
Jason - it comes into play when you kept on screaming about Redmond’s batting average this year compared to Everett’s.
As to your “challenge”. I don’t have time right now. But perhaps tonight I will try to find a time where a manager did everything they could to tie the game in the 9th, including giving up the DH spot.
Is it really about “wins” for the Twins though? I was under the impression that it was all about dollars and sense.
Fortunately, though the Twins were able to save a ton of money by unloading Santana, they are also replacing people in the seats by having an exciting young player like Gomez. People went to the Dome every 5 days to watch Santana pitch, now people are going everyday to watch GoGo play. I think that is enough to make Pohlad happy.
It’s just a fortunate that Gomez is also helping the team wins some ball games.
Gomez has a low on base percentage. He leads off yet is third on the team in runs and seventh in RBI’s. His defense is solid, but he does have hiccups as well. He has the potential to be as good as Santana someday, but right now he is very mediocre statistically.
Sure, he has scored / RBI’d in games where we needed every run, but so has every other player on the team. His runs, RBI’s, OBP, and average are all that of a pretty mediocre leadoff man.
But I sure do like watching him and I am glad we were able to get some decent value for a player that would have been gone next year anyways.
Just because I was curious:
Santana is currently batting .222 with a .263 OBP and a SLG of .389
He has 7 hits in 18 at bats including 3 doubles. 1BB and 8Ks.
Not really anything with the discussion at large, but it’s interesting to see if he’s taken to hitting or not.
Pardon me: 4 hits, 3 of which are doubles.
“It’s just a fortunate that Gomez is also helping the team wins some ball games.”
People wouldn’t come to the games to watch Gomez if he wasn’t helping. Because then he’d just be Everett. 
lol almost a better walk to strikeout ratio than Go-Go…
I think you meant 4 hits in 18 ABs…7-for-18 and he’d be hitting .389.
T, I thought Santana had 11 HR’s…Oops…he’s already given up 11 HR’s.
Regards,
“People went to the Dome every 5 days to watch Santana pitch, now people are going everyday to watch GoGo play. I think that is enough to make Pohlad happy.”
Wasn’t there just a story about how attendance was down at the Metrodome? It appears that people aren’t going out to watch “GoGo” play…
Ha.. “just be Everett”. I like that.
What’s the before/after on Everett getting designated for assignment?
I’ll set the date at June 16 and take before.
I think this is a perfect illustration of why the Twins giving crazy years and dollars to any one player makes no sense.
No one can come to an undisputable conclusion one way or another right now to: Has Carlos Gomez already helped the Twins to more wins than Johan would have been able to?
What the trade has not done is tied up money for years on one player for a team that is not likely to contend for a World Series.
What it has done is given the Twins an exciting young player that should be around for a long time.
To me that’s all we know, right now.
Jeremy, If his arm doesn’t get any better I say pretty freakin’ soon…
JimCrikket at 2:00 talkng about the Twins: “Maybe in September, if they’re a game or two out of the division lead or the wild card spot, having Santana would come in real handy.”
Precisely the same can be said about the Mets too. This is what they really need Santana for.
And I doubt Gomez, at his young age, would serve such a role this year.
But for now, Seth is right. Gomez has dissipated both the depression we fans were about to suffer and the depression the Twins could have suffered because of the loss of Santana and Hunter.
There will be plenty more time for Santana / Go-go debate when the time warrants it…I just laugh to think that now is the time…
But here’s a good talker: Willie Randolph apparently has decided to play the race card.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3406079
Here’s a take that might be even more controversial than Seth’s Santana trade conclusions: Willie needs to be called out on this BS. The very fact that he cites Isiah Thomas and the New York Knicks as part of his ‘blacks don’t get a fair shake in New York’ is proof positive that the guy is absolutely pulling this crap out of thin air. He’s entitled to his opinion, but we all know New York is a “win or else” town, and at 22-21, people or going to get anxious and chippy, regardless of race.
But there’s a larger point at play here and I’m not afraid to make it–this is 2008, folks. No more using the race card…I am inclined to believe our society is better than that. If you’re going to play the race card, you better be darn sure you know what you’re talking about, because it insults our culture to throw stuff like that out there when times are tough. And who knows, maybe Willie really does feel like he’s been slighted because of his race–but then why back off on the comments? To me, that’s proof the whole thing was garbage.
It’s insulting to those who really do experience racism as a real part of their everyday lives, but moreover, it insults American culture in 2008. Not everyone is Don Imus, Willie.
I wasn’t clear in my last post, Nicky Poo.
You said they have young players, so they have the potential to be better. I said other teams are in the same position, in that some of them also have young players. So, having young players doesn’t mean you are more likely to be better in the future than other teams with young players. It is how well those young players develop. But, having young players in and of itself only puts you even with other teams that have young players.
Also, “youngest” team in the majors uses average age. Averages are pretty meaningless in those situations. They are really, really young at two positions, so that really brings their average age down (considering that in position players they don’t have any really older players).
A better way to look at it would be how many positions are they young at, relative to other teams. LF, CF is about it. Mauer, Morneau, Harris and Kubel are in the beginning or middle of their prime years (age wise) so they may be around a little while longer than players on teams who have those positions in the end of their primes, but they aren’t really all that much younger in terms of primes of their careers. Cuddy is in the middle/end of his prime years, and 3B and SS are not young, but they aren’t super old (meaning they don’t balance out the 2 young players in average age very well). So, while they have two really young players, their core is in the beginning of their prime, but still not really super young for their positions. Of course, there are exceptions for great players that stay in their prime longer than most players, and Mauer and Morneau might be young for their careers….but no one else looks like they have that chance outside of LF and CF.
Long story short, they are young in average age, but not as young as the average age would indicate.
mike,
“youngest” team in the majors uses average age. Averages are pretty meaningless in those situations. They are really, really young at two positions, so that really brings their average age down”
Then use the “mean age” if you have the information. (Number of players above the mean age = number of players below the mean age). That overcomes the bias in average caused by two “really, really young” players.
That would be median, not mean. Mean is pretty much the same as average.
Again, though, being 25 vs 26 isn’t a big difference, even if 26 is the median. My overly long post would state that most players have an early career, a prime career and a tail to their career. While Mauer is likely below the median age for a catcher, he’s probably in the prime age for a catcher, so does it matter if he is 1-2 years younger, really, in terms of production? I’m not sure.
I don’t think you look at the numbers too closely with Gomez, at least not the static numbers. You look at trends: How many more balls is he taking this week than last week? Is he starting to use the whole field more? Is he taking more walks? Is he striking out less? Is he making fewer mental mistakes? The answer to all these questions is yes. If the trends continue, by the end of the year, Gomez will be one of the best center fielders in baseball–certainly the best young center fielder in baseball.
Then you ask yourselves: would you trade one of the best pitchers in baseball for one of the best center fielders in baseball? If you’re the Twins, the answer is yes because, as we have seen already, the Twins have a lot of starting pitching depth.
Jason, I didn’t think it was possible, but you might be more annoying than BC Beneke.
Robert,
Careful.
You are taking about one of the all-time grates.
What’s the before/after on Everett getting designated for assignment?
He’s more likely to go on the DL when Punto is ready to be activated. He can barely get his throws over to first. And I was shocked at that throw he made from the hole in Colorado. It barely got to first at all. Morneau had to charge it to keep the guy from taking second.
As strange as this might have sounded in spring training, the best middle infield right now is Casilla at short and Clark at second.
Gomez’s WARP3 this year: 5.8
Santana’s WARP3 this year: 5.9
Sane…. I have read in some of your posts that you were or are still coaching baseball. I have a question for you. I have noticed the twins players doing a lot of eating in the dugout, is this excepted nowdays? I KNOW WHEN i played and coached it was a no no. Maybe things are just alot different now than back then. Still doesnt seem like a good idea though.
it wasn’t encouraged when I played, but then again, it looks like they’re eating healthy bars and snacks, whereas I liked Snickers bars, pop and hot dogs!
I love Gomez, but if the Twins get in the playoffs, it sure would be nice to have Santana pitching games 1,4 and 7
i think it’s important to consider the situations the team would find itself in both pre and post-Santana trade. if we sign Santana to the contract we offered, i believe 5 years $100M, how does that constain our already limited payroll? we certainly don’t have the cash to go out and get the hitter that everybody on this blog wants and knows we need. on the other hand, we now free up (i never said we’ll spend it) a boatload of cash and provide our offense with a suitable, replacement for torii. let’s face it, santana only has a few more elite years left in him. no way do we have the pieces to contend for a title without the cash in the santana deal. time to reload with some young, inexpensive talent and play for (hopefully) the larger payroll the new stadium will provide
Trav, I agree in principle that they freed up money, and I know you didn’t say they would spend it, but until they show a willingness to spend it, I don’t think it should be counted as a good part of the trade from a fans’ perspective.
The Twins would have been much better off trading Santana for Jacoby Ellsbury/Justin Masterson/Jed Lowrie or Jon Lester/Justin Masterson/Jed Lowrie than for the package they got from the Mets.
For starters, compare Gomez’ OBP to Ellsbury’s. It’s almost certain that Gomez will never, ever get on base to the extent that Ellsbury does.
Michael Blaine
http://www.rudelystamped.blogspot.com
Jason -
I don’t know if I can possibly go through every game and try to find examples of when teams expended their entire bench in an effort to win a game. I can’t find a list of pitchers to get an AB in American League games. I did however find that the last pitcher to get an at bat in an AL game was Hipolito Pichardo on July 31st, 2000. He game into the game in a double switch for the Red Sox after they pinch ran for the DH. The Sox were down a run in the top of the 8th, and with one out, the DH got a base hit. He was pinch ran for, and that runner eventually tied the game. The Red Sox then took the lead in that inning, and Pichardo was used in the double switch. He then came up to bat in the 9th inning and struck out, but pitched the bottom of the 9th to record the save.
We just had a “Hipolito Pichardo” reference… that’s cool!
If Hipolito Pichardo is still around, I want him on my team, if only so I can say his name every day.
Pete D, I think you need to check your references again. I doubt Pichardo was the last pitcher to get an AB in an AL game if it took place in 2000.
As someone else pointed out on another thread/blog, Matt Garza was forced to hit for himself last summer in a game against the WhiteSox when Redmond got injured early in a game and Mauer, DHing that day, had to catch.
Ah man, he’s been out since 2002? Maybe he can be our bench coach…
Jim - you are right. I meant to say that the last guy to do it before Garza was Hipolito Pichardo.
Thanks!
Info here : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designated_hitter
and here :
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA200007310.shtml
GOMEZ is a stud, and he plays every day, santana is only every five days
Paying pitchers huge amounts of money is a big mistake as they more prone to arm and shoulder injuries and prone to getting more injured than other position players. The Twins did themselves a favor by making this deal and getting Gomez, Guerra (high ceiling young pitcher), and two mid-rotation starters. They deepened their pitching in the minors and allowed themselves to replace Hunter with a high ceiling player. Getting two high ceiling players PLUS two mid-rotation projected starters for one starter that is paid too much over the long-term was a great deal. Could it be better, sure. If they traded him sooner (during the 2007 season) rather than later (after the 2007 season) they would’ve yielded more. However, that didn’t happen, and they needed to trade him before it was too late.
Give the guys some time then let’s make a decision. Trades are never known to be successful in the first half of the season and for that matter should only be reassessed after an entire season, if not longer.
I have to admit Gomez is a great player with exceptional potential, but needs to iron out some deficiencies in his game. ie: OBP, high strike out total. At this moment, the trade looks like a reasonable deal, as Santana seems past his prime, and we got good stock for him. In the future we’ll know for sure.
Gman,
“I have noticed the twins players doing a lot of eating in the dugout, is this excepted nowdays? I KNOW WHEN i played and coached it was a no no.”
Most HS players stay hydrated but don’t eat in the dugout. When you (and I) played, MLB players (Mantle and Ford included) used to sneak down the tunnel for a cigarette so I don’t think we are headed for Armageddon now.
I think this trade worked out well so far for both teams. The Mets needed to make this move after their collapse last year, or a similar move. Santana has brought faith back to Mets fans at least. He has been solid, and is generally a slow starter, doesnt usually get going until late June and into July and then is basically unhittable the rest of the season. And for a Mets team that collapsed last year losing a 7 game lead with 17 to play, that prospect sounds pretty nice.
Now to the Twins. We needed an identity in center. Yes Denard Span is doing superb in Rochester but who was seriously going to get excited about him? Gomez with his bat and at least once with his glove have won the Twins games. Humber is doing poor in Rochester right now. Mulvey is doing decent. But the key to this trade might be Delois Guerra who is at Fort Meyers and just turned 19. That is High A ball, and he is pitching pretty good. I say if Gomez keeps it up and Guerra is the real deal then the Twins got the better end. But if Gomez is the only one who pans out I say the Mets. Lets not forget the Mets still have Fernando Martinez who many believe to be a better prospect than Gomez was, in the minors.
Twins look ok for the future. With our outfield the way it is now they can maybe trade guys in the minors. I say they should trade Span while he’s hot so he is attractive to other teams. I mean Delmon,Gomez,Cuddy, where is span going to play? I could see putting him at 2nd someday, but maybe swinging a deal might be a good idea. Also maybe just maybe Luke Hughes or Danny Valencia will solve our 3b woes. Moses certainly isn’t the answer. One more thing the guy we got for trading Lohse in AA right now is 2-0 with a 0.32 ERA and 24k’s in 28 ip. Zach Ward. Another good TR move.
Kent,
“where is span going to play? I could see putting him at 2nd someday”
Span THROWS LEFT-HANDED.
He will never play 2B in professional baseball. (barring extreme emergency)
sane,
Also, if Cuddy doesn’t fix his hitting problems, the Twins can’t afford to pay a .230-.250 hitter (Cuddyer) that much money to play RF.
IF Span outhits him and outfields him, Cuddyer could become the odd man out.
That is a large IF.
That should have been addressed to Kent, not to myself.
Losin’ it…………..
sane -it’s ok to talk to yourself,just don’t answer!!Enjoy the game.
JimmyMac says:
May 21st, 2008 at 4:04 pm
“I love Gomez, but if the Twins get in the playoffs, it sure would be nice to have Santana pitching games 1,4 and 7″
Santana playoff stats: w/l 1-3; era 3.97; 34 inn; 35 H; 10 BB; 32 K
He hasn’t really been lights out in playoffs.
I like Gomez playing games 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 of our next world series.
Pardon me for being late the party! A Hipolito Pichardo reference? You’ve got to be freaking kidding me!! Who’s next? F.P. Santangelo?
We wouldn’t be arguing Santana vs. Gonzalez if not for the pleasant surprise of Livan Hernandez.
The cagey NL veteran has done so much more for the Twins than eat up innings. He has demonstrated to a moderately talented staff of youngsters that if you pitch with a good plan, you don’t need devastating stuff to win. He’s shown them that pitching to poor contact is as effective as piling up K’s.
He’s also shown them that a good pitcher should know how to field like a pro, how to lay down a bunt and how to swing a bat like you have a clue.
People who argue over Santana vs. Gonzalez are missing this year’s real difference maker.
Dude! Protect our Karma…easy on the Ponson bashing/Blackburn congratulating BEFORE the game!
yep. this game is on Howard’s shoulders. do NOT mock the baseball gods.
Jimbo, May I say that I agree wholly with your 8:31 post. Add to it that Hernandez is a positive influence on the young Latino players, particularly, Carlos Gomez. Quite an addition!
Mr. Crikket, You are so correct. Howard, the last Macite who could say he was knowledgable in prognosticating a game was my classmate, Howie Helleckson, Class of ‘70, and a heck of a catcher.
Jason,
“are we as fans seeing any of this saved money?”
The team extended 3 of it’s core and shorty after the Santana deal was finalized, they put the 22 million they saved into the Stadium. More amenities, larger replay screen, etc.
As much as the naysayers want to rip the team and it’s lowered payroll, every penny they saved went back into the team and then some.
I do miss Santana, I really do, but I think when you also factor in the money involved, the Twins made out big time. I also think that as time passes, it will look more and more like a complete no brainer. At this point I couldn’t imagine Gomez not in the line up. He just keeps getting better and better and is still not even close to his ceiling. If even one of the other three pans out, this trade could become a real steal. Maybe someday the Giants can say, “Pags for Liriano, Nathan and Boof may not have been a smart move on out part, but it was no Santana for Gomez, Humber, Mulvey and Guerra.”
“do NOT mock the baseball gods.”
You’d think we’d have all learned that after LEN3 and the last Texas series.
Is there something we should know? Did they invest some payroll into some kind of preacher or priestess that can pay daily respects?
I’ll be the first to say it….way to go Howard (just another blogger with egg on face after a dead-wrong prediction).
Jason Kubel is freed (to the tune of .248)
The Tigers are running away with the division
Sidney Ponson got rocked and outdueled by Nick Blackburn…
Who’s looking to get jinxed next? Whatever you do, Howard, don’t predict Jessica Simpson is going to dump Tony Romo and marry me.
White Sox are starting to take off. Howard, it would be useful for you to say something about how they will run away with the division.
Jason,
You can do better than Jessica Simpson.
ouch. It’s over for me, now…
should be interesting to see what lineup we get for this afternoon.
how many times will cuddy ground out to 3b today?
One writer said that he needs to wait for Gleeman before he will believe the numbers on Gomez. I could not stop laughing. Only one person on this planet has believable numbers on Gomez and his name is Gleeman. Gleemans numbers are slanted to make Bill Smith and Gardy look foolish.
Why read anything else if you only believe in one source.
