Mocking the baseball gods, lessons for me ‘n’ you
Posted on May 22nd, 2008 – 8:50 AMBy Howard
I’d barely walked into the house last night when Young220 looked up from his laptop and said (something like): “Nice job, Dad. You really jinxed ‘em.”
Uh-huh. Sometimes lessons aren’t learned. In all of the years I’ve been involved with baseball, there have been maybe 4 or 5 times when I looked at a pitching match-up, the state of the teams playing and said to myself, “You know, if I had to bet the mortgage payment, this is a no-brainer.”
Once, it happened while a friend was in Vegas. He called and I said: “You gotta make this play.”
It was an 11 a.m. game, Twins vs. Texas at the Dome, Bert on the mound.
“An 11 a.m. game, dude. The Rangers aren’t gonna be able to see his curveball, much less hit it!”
Here’s what happened. Note the unnatural number of home runs hit by the unseeing Rangers.
I made it up to my friend, though. At Canterbury, we were in the paddock before the feature race. The big-time favorite, a shipper from Chicago, was a bit distracted. More importantly, though, his owner was wearing a hideous pink suit. I said to my friend, “He’s not here to win. You don’t get your picture taken in a pink suit.”
We were all over a sweet exacta.
But the 4 or 5 times I’ve made the no-brainer pronouncement about a baseball game, I’ve been wrong.
I should learn, huh?
Let me make one other point, though. I don’t have enough paving stones in my back yard to count the number of times I’ve read on blogs — in the hours before a game — that the lineup stinks or this player should be benched or that pitcher should be sent to Rochester (or wherever) or that they’re giving away today’s game. Then, somehow, miraculously, the team in question manages to win.
I’d rather go down guaranteeing victory.
Day game today. Cancel afternoon appointments and bring earplugs. The schoolkids’ll be there.
other people are here too
43 Responses to "Mocking the baseball gods, lessons for me ‘n’ you"
Howard–no reason for you to take the fall…I blame the twins lineup for getting 6 hits and scoring 1 run against sid the sloth…
Karma. This reminds me of the time a rival highschool coach told our coach it would take an act of god for us to beat them in the playoffs. Result: 3-1 good guys. Just remember Howard, anything is possible with this Twins lineip. And don’t ask Gardy about homeruns.
obviously this had nothing to do with Howard. I wonder, though, if you’ve ever analyzed how often you are right vs wrong on these? Most of us tend to remember the really wrong predictions…like NO way Georgetown can lose this basketball game….
well making predictions and having fun seeing if they come true is what sports are all about…but if any of us were perfect at it, we’d be in Vegas counting our money…
I heard Reusse on the radio last week talking about how he predicted them not to win in ‘05 (and he was right), he predicted them not to win in ‘06 (and he was wrong), he predicted them not to win in ‘07 (and he was right), he predicted them not to win in ‘08 (jury’s still out), and he’ll predict them not to win next year (and we’ll see how that goes).
At least he’s consistent.
The fallacy of these predictions, however, is this idea that you are “guaranteeing” anying. (”I’d rather go down guaranteeing victory.”) Last I checked, what made a guarantee a guarantee was what would happen IF what was guaranteed didn’t come to fruition–in business, that usually involves the guy who makes the guarantee giving something up if he fails to come through.
I’ll expect my check in the mail, Howard.
But in sports, those making the so-called guarantees do it with absolutely no jeopardy other than the embarrassment of having their ‘guarantee’ fail.
So I guess the bottom line is, keep the guarantees coming, because each time someone does it, fun as it is to do, it will be met with the usual shrug of the shoulders.
Jason Kubel is free at last…
Tigers took control of the division…
The Twins knocked Ponson around like the dog we knew he was…
Oh yeah, and “Dewey defeats Truman”
Maybe this blog should be re-named Sink-er-Swim. Anyhoo, now that Howard successfully turned Sir Sidney into Sandy Koufax, perhaps he could say something negative about Michael Cuddyer so we can find out if we need to ask for a refund.
The biggest differance between last nights game vs the first game against Ponson is the Rangers actually brought there gloves with this time. I give Ponson and Young a lot of credit for last nights win. The sun even shines on a dogs butt once in awhile and last night it shined on Ponsons.
dead locks!
the queens will never win a super bowl.
the wolves will never move up in the nba lottery.
carl will die with more money than the pope, unlike the pope he won’t beable to take it with him.
cuddy will ground out at least 2 times to the 3b man today.
gardy will find a way to not take blame for bad play, despite the fact his team hasn’t played the “twins way” for over a year now.
Casilla added to Howard’s point from about a week ago on the fallacy that the Twins do the little things right…not catching that ball and turning the double play in the sixth ended up being a BIG thing in that game.
Company line: When you lack HR power, claim you do the little things right and fans will appreciate you nonetheless.
And on Howard’s point about all the lineup whining prior to a win…
I don’t care if we win out, if they continue to insist on keeping a singles hitter in the three hole while burning up the top two spots in the order with the two guys who are 1-2 in most strikeouts on the team (Gomez and Harris), I will complain each and every night.
Jason,
Strikeouts are better than three-hoppers to the pitcher.
Sometimes, by striking out, the batter is breaking up a double play.
Jason, U sound like u need your own blog. They’re free, u know.
Jason is never happy. We could have had the Red Sox lineup last night and if the Rangers still won it would never be because they actually played better that night it would be Gardy’s fault, Punto’s fault, Pohlads fault, the ticket takers fault, John Gordons fault,Berts fault,Howards fault. There’s always going to be someone to blame no matter what. Here’s a fact for you Jason no team can win 162 games in a season and even great pitchers lose and lousy pitchers win once in awhile.
I can’t do that Punto, then I would have to join the chest-thumping prediction crowd, show clips of myself on some truly obscure internet webcast show, display my Ron Gardenhire signed baseball for the world to see, and invest in some egg cartons for the appropriate moments…
I much prefer second-guessing and issue spotting on the Strib blogs anyway 
The baseball gods are as fickle as the Minnesota weather. They fill your cup with sweet honey one day and with gall and wormwood the next. They wield irony like a Louisville slugger. Their sense of humor is as predictable as the flight of a knuckleball, and they punish hubris with glee. Not to suggest that the outcome of last night’s game was your fault, Howard. But don’t let it happen again. Cappice?
I was at the game, and the only enjoyable things were: the upper deck outfield playing with about 30 beach balls at one time, MadDog sitting in my section, and…thats it.
Wow, I like the heat BC.
I was really happy in ‘91 when we won 15 in a row (although I’m still mad at Aggie for screwing up number 16)…I was also pretty ecstatic (and not doing any Punto bashing) during our magical run in 2006–and I never gave up that year either–I have been an everyday fan since I was about 10 (1989).
So yes, I still miss Ted Robsinson and Jim Kaat on TV and I still miss Puckett…I’ll point out when I’d like to see something different, but I’ll also point out the good. I think Joe Mauer has had a fantastic season, by the way, I just think we have to stop kidding ourselves and put him in the 2-hole UNTIL he proves he can be that power-hitting RBI guy we’re looking for at the 3-spot.
Eh, maybe I do sound like a whiner, but I think at the end of the day I’m a passionate fan who tells it like it is.
I love how Gardy pointed out postgame how the whole thing unraveled in 3 pitches last night (I saw that as code for ‘don’t blame me for not taking Blackburn out earlier)…well, truth is, Gardy left him to die out there in the sixth…after the single that made it 4-0, you still have a ball game, you go to your bully at that point.
I have to chime in here since it appears the complaining about Mauer batting third still has not subsided:
I agree, Baby Jesus should not be batting third. I would prefer Morneau (the team’s best all-around hitter) bat third. However, Gardenhire is never going to remove him from the 4-hole. That said, who else on this team can out-hit Baby Jesus, thus qualifying that individual for the three spot?
Until I hear that answer, and knowing Gardenhire will never move Morneau out of the clean-up spot, I’m going to have to be satisfied with Mauer as our best option.
jason,
If Delmon is really breaking out, maybe you WILL get Mauer back in the 2-hole.
If not,…..NOT!
“Gardy left him to die out there in the sixth…”
After Blackburn lost his composure, he NEEDED (deserved?) to die in order to learn professionals don’t wet themselves after suffering adversity.
The lesson learned was more valuable than the game. (which would have been lost anyway)
well the main thing is it’s laughable they won’t even try it…they did it for what, four games or something at the very beginning?
their attitude seems to be ‘we love Joe as our three hitter, it’s his throne, and we will not disturb it’. That’s the part that’s frustrating…
Give D-Young a shot…and why has Monroe been relegated to bench duty the last couple games? Mix it up and give someone a shot…I would say Cuddy, but he’s more deserving of the 8 spot than the 3 spot at this point.
that’s an interesting take, sane. not sure I agree with all of it, but i supppose there might be some ancillary benefit in that next time a double play ball is booted, Blackburn might work out of it better.
What must it be like pitching against a lineup that, save for two spots in the order, is comprehensively incapable of hitting the ball out of the park? What must it be like knowing no matter how silly you get out there on the mound, the guy at the plate is not going to be able to take you deep?
Justin Morneau has been an absolute stud this year…his numbers have been amazing considering Cuddyer and / or Kubel has been hitting behind him all year…if you’re not going to put D Young in the three hole, at least put him behind Morneau to provide some protection in the lineup.
I dunno Kleiner, should we ask Sid?
You just nailed the issue on the head, Jason. Not so much that the attitude is “it’s Joe’s throne,” but in the names you offered as acceptable alternatives to Mauer in the 3-hole. Despite Mauer’s lack of power, the guys you mentioned (Young, Cuddyer) simply don’t offer anything more in that spot in the order than Mauer.
Look at Young — essentially the same power numbers as Mauer, and a much lower BA and OBP. What would be the benefit of moving him there? Then you’d just substitute Young’s name for Mauer when complaining about production out of the three-spot, and sadly, you’d have a better argument.
Cuddyer? I’m too lazy to look up the exact numbers, but isn’t he hitting like .230? With what, 1 HR? That isn’t going to work.
Monroe certainly has the power everybody seems to be looking for in that spot, but I’d much rather have the more complete hitter in Mauer.
Unless Gardenhire decides he’d rather have Morneau hitting third than fourth, there isn’t a viable option other than Mauer for the three-spot.
So there you have it. Unless you believe the Twins are going to trip and land on a prototype three-hitter overnight, Morneau is your only legitimate argument for the 3-spot instead of Joe. You can’t blame the manager’s lineup when you consider the personnel he has at his disposal.
While for the most part you’re right about “guarantees” in sports. If a writer continues to make these guarantees and they continue to be proven wrong, they lose a piece of their credibility.
And that’s one of the most important things a journalist has.
And sane brings up a great point about leaving Blackburn “to die” out there.
Remember when Boof got shelled in the first against Detroit, and Livan got hammered in the first against Boston? (Or was it vice versa?)
Did either of them start pouting and start half-a$$ing it out there? No. They got their stuff together, went out and pitched shutout baseball for another 5-6 innings.
Blackburn wasn’t entirely in the same situation, but it was still one of those “Oh WOW I’m screwed” situations where he has to learn to keep his act together.
Cause yeah, that error cost him the inning…but he still was the one who threw up the gopher ball.
why isn’t cuddy getting any heat? the other night he left 9 runners on base i can’t remember him even hitting the ball hard just slow bouncers to 3rd. his finger excuse can only last so long.
Unless you believe the Twins are going to trip and land on a prototype three-hitter overnight, Morneau is your only legitimate argument for the 3-spot instead of Joe.
Which is exactly the problem. Instead of debating who should be hitting 3rd, we’d all be arguing over who should be hitting 4th.
Like I said before:
2nd: Mauer
3rd: ????
4th: PROFIT!
gook: Cuddy’s getting heat. Just not in the “OMG I have to complain about Cuddy in every post!” type that we saw with guys like Punto.
Or Pohald.
Or Gardy.
Or Ryan.
I’m with you gobble…he’s now a $5.9 million player…the heat should come from the manager in the form of this lineup today:
Gogo
Casilla
Mauer
Morneau
Young
Monroe
Cuddyer
Lamb
Clark
To be fair, T, Cuddy hasn’t given us a full season of .200 / no power / no ability to lay down a sac bunt like LNP did last year…when he does that, it will be open season.
Excellent point, T.
Although, given the personnel, I’d rather see:
2: Mauer
3: Morneau
4: ???
You’ve got two constants in the lineup — you might as well give them as many ABs as possible. Besides, with the options available, why have Mauer get on in the two-hole only to be doubled up and leave Morneau with no one on base?
I never agreed much with the L-R-L thoery, so I say keep the two together and get them more at bats. While it would be great to have a formidable 2-6, if we’ve only got two hitters to fill that role, I’d rather have them hitting 2-3 or 3-4 then splitting them up.
Jason I will never question your passion for the Twins and i didn’t mean to sound pissed off. I was simply trying to point out that sometimes teams just get out played. It’s not that the Twins didn’t make several mistakes last night, they did, but give Ponson and the Rangers a little credit.
cuddy is one of the 4 spots that isn’t producing at all. young gets a lot of heat about hr’s but he would be 5th on my list of fixing behind #1 ss, #2 3b, #3 3b and #4 cuddy. when 3/4 of the infield can’t hit their weight it’s a problem. to make it worse they haven’t been even average in the field and punto isn’t the answer either.
joe has a lineup out!
Personally I’m glad Nick Blackburn freaked out. It’s time the Twins show some emotion. He got a bad deal on a no call on a 3rd stike and Alexi Casilla sucks catch the ball! If I was Gardy I’d be throwing the water cooler and yelling at the Twinks like no other. Field the Ball! Field it! Pathetic not used to this kind of pathetic fielding from the Twins.
That said Ponson had stuff last night. 94Mph fastball with movement. Ouch… Still a complete game 6 hitter? Got to do a little better than that, maybe we would have if we could field but 7-0 takes a lot out of you.
Appreciate you manning up and taking responsibility for last night, Howard.
I can think of a few folks in the Twins organization who could stand to follow your example.
Livan and Texas don’t seem to go well together.
“I’m glad Nick Blackburn freaked out”
Are there benefits to players freaking out DURING the game?
Why don’t baseball teams have pregame rituals like Raymond Lewis orchestrates for the Baltimore Ravens?
If all 25 players on both teams were screaming and foaming at the mouth like NFL defensive units, the entertainment value would outweigh any loss in performance.
I was at the game last night. Except for Gomez’ triple, the beach balls WERE the MOST exciting part of the evening. When Blackburn started getting into trouble I kept looking at the bullpen, but not a soul was stirring. This went on and on and on until the game was getting out of reach (interesting take by sane on this though - hope it’s true and Gardy wasn’t just doing nincampoop managing again). We left when he brought Rincon in as that is the equivalent of throwing in the towel. Although I understand that I missed some further exciting beach ball action by leaving early.
Off-topic: Bill Simmons is looking for a better term than “walkoff mosh pit” for the celebration after a game-winning homer (or in the Twins’ case, hit). I submitted your “celebratory man love” term, Howard. It works too well.
I was also at the game last night, actually sitting in Section 220. I have to admit, the beach ball madness was hilarious. One of my friends was sitting in the cheap seats when something like 50 beach balls were released at once. The ushers were going nuts. Apparently, one of the ushers tackled a kid while he was leaning over to pick one of the balls up. Funny stuff.
What’s not funny is Juan Rincon. It is time for Juan to be designated for assignment. I’m not going into too much detail (I just wrote my own blog about it) but the simple fact of the matter is Juan is done, and Gardy and the rest of the Twins organization need to figure that out. Kudos to Tampa Bay for not taking Rincon in the Delmon Young trade.
Jason, yes the Twins have been playing very sloppy baseball this year and will continue to do so at their own pace.and yes many of these players need to be benched because of their play(errors) you know who they are. have you noticed that gardenhire has alot more grey hair than he use to. And you must know that by the end of August our Twins will be sitting in 4th place depending on how bad KC is playing. And The Twins will find out what it feels like not to be to sell 2 million plus tickets for games. that above all should be the point that makes mgmt step in and make changes.Please back off on some comments you have been making and let this team self destruct in its own way..
Sid the Sloth. I yjink he would look good in a Twins uni and the type of pitcher wanted last year!
Win Twins!
