The feeble benefit of what happened in Chicago
Posted on June 10th, 2008 – 8:50 AMBy Howard
OK, let’s assume that any resurrection by the Twins into a contender will be an unexpected surprise, which is pretty much what we were thinking at the beginning of the year. Right now, for all of the offensive struggles, I think Cleveland has a better chance to finding itself in the division race than the Hometown 13, oops, Nine. You’ve got to think Cleveland is looking forward to greeting the Twins tonight and wondering whether the Hometown Nine’s 13-man pitching staff will help cure its bats.
The people who were the gloomiest about this season were looking at the Twins as a 70-win team. That would translate into 70-92, which would be their worst record since 2000. That would have likely landed the Twins fourth in the division, or perhaps fifth if Kansas City was to show some of the improvement that was expected — and has been expected since the Clinton presidency.
That 70-92 was predicated on Cleveland and Detroit battling for the title and the White Sox improving over their 2007 meltdown. Only the White Sox are living up to those expectations right now.
So far, the Twins are 5-3 against Detroit, which still seems to be spinning listlessly toward a season that couldn’t have been imagined, and the Twins beat Cleveland in 2 of 3 games during their series in April. So, as a result, there are a few more wins to be taken from those division rivals that we could have expected back in March.
As a result, 75 feels like the pessimistic baseline right now because, as flawed as the Twins are, they’re not as bad as the team that just dropped four games in Chicago and gave up 40 runs in doing so.
If I’m a Twins’ decision-maker right now, I gave the team through the end of the month to show me that it wants to be taken seriously — and then, if the division lead continues to slip further away, I tell the manager to fill out lineup cards with an eye toward the future. For example, that means Casilla at second with a steady partner (or two) at shortstop and someone other than Mike Lamb at third, providing someone is still healthy enough for the positions.
The Lamb thing is painful because he makes a good hero when he does do well — an engaging and funny interview who seems to have the game in perspective. But with Macri, Buscher, Tolbert and maybe even Harris, Lamb’s presence on a regular basis would retard the decision-making that needs to be done.
I’m going to defer the rest of the “what I would do” stuff for now, though. I’ll deal with pitching, power, trades and the rest down the road, although you can go ahead on the look ahead weigh-ins. (One good thing: Nobody is having the “move Mauer from behind the plate” debate right now.
I pretty much wanted to point out that the one and only feeble benefit of what happened in Chicago over the last four days was that it served as a reality check for what this season was likely to be about all along.
One other thing, though, for the baseball strategists in the house. (Let’s call this the Sane Baseball Academy, as a tribute to our in-house coach and frequent commenter.) Go back to the ninth inning of yesterday’s game: Runners of first (Casilla) and Gogomez (third) with none out and down by 2. Mauer hits the one-hopper that Jenks reaches for and snares, then starts a double play. If you’re Gogomez at third, it seems like you break for home instead of staying there.
One of three things is likely to happen: 1) You get in a rundown and the Twins still have two runners on base with one out, maybe at second and third if you do it well enough; 2) The White Sox ignore you, turn the DP and at least it’s 7-6 with two outs and Morneau batting; 3) You create havoc because you’re Gogomez and the Sox throw the ball away. Weigh in on that one, if you want.
other people are here too
81 Responses to "The feeble benefit of what happened in Chicago"
We need to move Mauer to 3rd.
Wouldn’t that be on the third base coach, and not Gomez??? Obviously Gomez could have just gone, but where’s scotty ulger?
I hope Gardy lit into Gomez about that one…
Even if Gomez had scored what difference would that have made? Morneau still would have had to get a hit and he didn’t. I agree that if he had gotten into a run down that might have been beneficial but at the time you don’t think of those things. That is why hindsight is 20/20,
hindsight is always great!
big problem was the sox made the plays when they needed to and the twins did not…. and the 3 run homer!
to be realistic the twins don’t have much of anything in aaa that could help and don’t have anything worth using in a trade. rincon for a happy meal, livan gets devalued every pitch he throws. lamb, monroe and kubel may be worth “to be named later” this summer if someone needs a bat off the bench.
unless the not old pitching staff picks it up, next yr is starting to look iffy. anderson’s once proud staff is looking very sick right now, where is dick such when you need him (he knew how to work with a bad staff)?
Mauer hits into a dp and it’s Gomez’s fault? wtf! We get Punto back and things will be ok!
If you’re Bill Smith don’t you seriously look at trading Livan Hernandez now before his value completely bottoms out? Now that Baker is back you trade Livan and move Boof back into the rotation. If that doesn’t work out you call up one of your 10 pitching prospects to see what they can do.
As Howard has stated this team isn’t going to win anything this year. They are just competitive to keep your attention but not good enough to actually make the playoffs.
If we are still slipping by the time Tolbert returns, I would put him on 2B, Casilla at SS and Macri on 3B and leave them there the rest of the season. At least we would have a good idea about these players and positions by the end of the season and a good idea what we need to do in the offseason.
gardy we haven’t need the 13 man staff only 12 our $80,000 a gm closer hasn’t pitched in 6 days. $480,000 for sitting on the bench this week. nice work if you can get it. is that sick or what?
First, how do you expect the Twins to turn their back on Mike Lamb and the two-year deal they gave him when they haven’t even jettisoned Juan Rincon and eaten his salary yet? As much as I agree with Howard, Lamb is here to stay if he doesn’t get traded, I’m afraid.
Secondly, regarding the scenario yesterday in the ninth inning…I don’t see Go-go breaking for home as a huge issue…the Sox still turn their double play and the tying run (Morneau) remains at home plate–what difference does it make if we lose 7-5 or 7-6?
On to my thoughts after this collapse:
You started to hear a lot of rumblings on the blogs yesterday about fans turning away and looking forward to Vikings training camp or maybe even jumping on the Lynx bandwagon (no, I made that one up). Not me. I’m with this team until the end (even if they turn out to be non-contenders). I don’t think this thing is out of reach and I do think we will benefit from interleague play in the next month as these teams haven’t seen our young pitchers yet.
The starting pitching has been a huge concern, obviously, but I want to focus more on the bullpen…that’s where I think this thing is getting away. During our brief resurgence that got us within 1/2 game of first place, the bullpen finally got its act together…now we are back to question marks so big that none of our keyboards can replicate them. The A-squad segment of the bully finally had a chance to show their stuff yesterday and they proved just as feeble as the diet of Rincon, Bass, Bonser, appetite we’ve been dealing with during the thumpings.
So where does that put us? That puts us in trouble…both of our previous two opponents (Baltimore and Chicago) have excellent bullpens. We need ours to find a way to get above average, even if that means bringing up some young arms and cutting the dead weight (Rincon, Boooof).
As for the lineup, other than a perceived lack of leadership, I think we’re still in good shape, there. We’re scoring runs at a much more respectable pace than a year ago and if we cut down on silly at-bats and getting picked off the basepaths, I think our lineup is more than adequate to get the job done.
So I guess the bottom line with all of this ranting is it all comes down to pitching and defense. Wow, Tom Kelly is a genious after all, isn’t he?
Don’t lose faith fans…I’m not.
Mauer sucks! I predicted the DP in the ninth after the Radio Guy said something to the effect of “Here comes Mauer with his big bat” or something like that. I started laughing out loud and then said here comes a DP…then the DP was hit and I threw my radio against the wall! HA…what a joke!
“someone other than Mike Lamb at third, providing someone is still healthy enough for the positions.”
Smith’s got to give Gardy somebody who can do that. Right now his only option until Tolbert and Punto get back is Macri…and do ANY of them seem like the slugging 3B that the Twins have been missing forever?
Smith needs to help Gardy out a bit. He went out and got Delmon Young. And though he’s in sophomore slump that’s the kind of youthful bat the team needed to get brought in after shuffling through such “options” as Lew Ford, Jason Tyner, and Rondell White in LF.
Neither Monroe or Kubel has shown signs of consistent production. Cuddyer is struggling, and the middle infield is plauged with injuries.
Gardy’s hands are tied with the 13 pitchers at the moment. Gardy can plead to have fewer…but it’s not his call in the end.
Here’s a laundry list:
1) Rincon goes. Normally I include “Thank him for his time”, but after the whole steroids thing I question how genuine his contributions were. Twins won’t get anything, because teams know they’re looking to drop a guy. Yeah, he’ll probably get picked up somewhere…but who really cares if he starts to kick butt with another team. He’s not doing it for the Twins.
2) Livan goes. Here I will add “Than him for his time.” Livan was brought in having never faced the AL. And for hte first few months he gave this lineup a fair shot at winning, including big starts in the division on more than one occasion. But now he’s starting to fade. It’s time to make a move before he turns into another Ponson or Ortiz.
3) Everett goes. He was brought in for defense. It was understood he wouldn’t hit for squat, but if he could just stabilize the defense he could hit ninth and we’d all be hunky-doory (for the most part anyway) Well he can’t even do that. Two trips to the DL is starting to make him look like the 2nd coming of Rondell. Let him go once he gets off the DL.
4) Punto to bench when he gets back. Tolbert to SS or 2B…wherever he’s most comfortable. Harris to bench as well. Casilla (if he stays healthy) plays the opposite of whatever Tolbert is.
5) Lamb to bench (or trade if you can find one). With Evertt and Rincon gone you have some wiggle room. Either find a way to bring in a young 3B who can hit for power, or take a guy like Buscher (if he’s healthy) and go with him through the end of the year.
6) OF: Kubel/Monroe, Gomez, Young? Yeah…Cuddyer’s arm is awesome out of right field, but at the same time he was signed to be the #3 guy and he ain’t cutting it. If neither Young or Monroe can step up to it in his place, it’s time to go find somebody who can. Could trading Cuddyer (along with some AAA?) be enough to bring in a 3B? It’s an option to explore.
Now provided all of thse SOUND like they could help, but at the same time…we thought Young was going to boost this lineup and end up hitting 3rd by the end of the year.
So really, they could grab Atkins or Stewart from Colorado. Or they could go bring in some other slugging 3B, and the same thing could happen.
But they’ve gotta try something.
“Not me. I’m with this team until the end (even if they turn out to be non-contenders).”
For once, you and I agree Jason. 
I tuned in this season to watch some young guys play baseball. Gomez has been rewarding (though frustrating at times), and I’m not going to give up on Young like it seems most people have…
Howard,
In the first and third situation yesterday, all that the third base coach can (will) do is, prior to the first pitch to Mauer, instruct Gomez as follows:
1)If an infielder fields a ground ball and looks you (Gomez) back, you quick-fake to home and scramble back to third base. This might (but not likely) get that infielder to abandon the double play attempt.
2) If that infielder DOES NOT LOOK YOU (Gomez) BACK TO third base (much more likely with a 2-run-lead), you score.
3) If the baserunner at third base is slow (not Gomez), he must make a ground ball go through the infield, before he scores.
Holy cow…great post T! I agree 100% with all of those moves.
Jason, I disagree with you about getting rid of Boof. He had one great relief appearance and one that was great for 3 innings (unfortunately, he pitched to five more batters in the 8th) in a game that was pretty much over(it was 7-0 at the time). Let’s give him a bit more time, then maybe we can give up Rincon and Bass…
I have to add, that Gomez must be 100% certain that he can score on the DP. Otherwise, he must stay at third base.
Gomez’s number one job, since he is not the tying (or lead) run is to NOT MAKE AN OUT ON THE BASES.
Not to score, not to advance, BUT TO NOT MAKE AN OUT!!!!!
agreed sane…we’ve wasted far too much time on this virtually meaningless point…there’s nothing go-go could’ve done to prevent the Sox from turning two, and that’s the bottom line…whether he scores or not is meaningless when you’re down two runs.
It’s impossible to expect Gomez to hang himself on purpose up in order to avoid a double play in that situation. As a baserunner you’re proper focus down two is on not making an out, your run is meaningless, so you’ve got to be conservative on the bases.
with the way the bullpen is going do you think smith is wondering why he gave the mariners r.a.dickey for next to nothing. 2.67 era in 27 innings. he’d look very good right now with a few guys over 5 era. would he be better than rincon?
Sane, Jason and bis are right. Gomez situation is a non situation. How about Mauer fining a gap instead of Jenks glove on a comebacker.
All,
Lotta interesting thoughts here on an assortment of subjects.
The DP question was raised not in the context of yesterday’s game at all. It is raised in the context that we’ve discussed here about “Twins baseball” becoming fraudulently synonymous with “doing the little things right.” For whatever reason, I don’t think that happened (again) in the situation. Thanks to sane for his analysis.
Tuna…how dare you demand Joe Mauer come up with a clutch hit in that situation…don’t you know he’s hitting .327? What more do you expect out of the guy? You’re not being very nice.
White Sox series is over now. The team needs to learn from that series and not dwell on it. Baker needs to have a good outing tonight to stop the losing streak and start to establish himself as the ace of the staff.
I try not to second guess, and I made this call before the Mauer DP.
I would have had Casilla attempt to steal 2B.
Jenks does a poor job holding runners at 1B.
Dicknbert said that Hall was one-for-nineteen (I think) at throwing out base-stealers.
It removes the DP possibility.
It moves the tying run to scoring position.
Of course if Hall throws out Casilla, then I am an idiot and Gardy is an idiot for taking my suggestion. Gardy gets fired, but I keep my non-paying (and non-solicited) consulting job for the Twins. (lol)
Got the sarcasm, Mauer is a fine player, its just that Gomez and Casilla managed to get hits to start a rally for the middle of the lineup. Would have been nice to see it keep going. Mauer has a lot of things expected of him, but jeez he seems to define empty numbers.
Agree with the wait a month and go for youth attitude, but there are a few problems:
*all position players 29 y.o. and over (Lamb, Everett, Cuddyer, Monroe, Punto, Redmond) have contracts that make them practically untradable, unless the Twins are willing to send a lot of $ with them to their new teams and/or get very little in return
* Piching (esp. starting pitching) is the biggest problem for the team and needs to be figured out. From the pitchers 29 and older, only Nathan and Guerrier have large trade value. Reyes and Livan might have some value, but Rincon is untradable…
* Again, the focus should be on pitching because the batting has actually been league average (despite the last series), while pitching has been atrocious…
* There not many “youth movement” options, as far as position players go, in Rochester. Tolbert and Macri are 26, Buscher is 27. I am not sure that it would make sense to give either of them a starting job instead of Lamb, because the result would be the same: They will block younger players who actually do have starting role potential. Tolbert could be a fine player in a Punto role in the future. Most of the prospects who are performing well for the Twins, unfortunatelly are in New Britain, Forth Myers and Beloit.
*Pitching is an interesting equation. One could say that a youth movement has started there and there are 2-3 young pitchers in Rochester who can actually be called up and help the big club (Duensing, Liriano, Gomez) but there are a lot of young pitchers in the majors already and also not a lot of bullpen arms in the minors.
*If a rebuilding/youth movement is done, it almost has to be all or none. i.e. You need to get rid of Cuddyer and Nathan as well, in order to really build for the future (like the Marlins have been doing so successfully). The Twins have done a lot of half-rear end “youth” movements where they supplement young talent with bad veterans, the coach plays the veterans and the team sucks…
*Speaking of, the single best movement this team can do whether they go for youth or not is to get rid of Gardy. He is not present any more, there is no fire… He looks like Tom Kelly did in the late 90s. Time to put him and the team out of their misery
Re Gomez’ no-run from 3rd: It’s all on Ullger and Gardy, unless they game him the sign and he ignored it.
I read through all the other comments, and I’ve been going through the stats of all the teams, all the minor league teams AA and up, and there are only a few 3rd baseman that are out there that are young, and obtainable, or not ANCIENT and worth looking at right now.
Right now I would look at Luke Hughes to come up. I know it’s against the Twins normal pattern to bring someone up from AA, but that is how a lot of the teams do it now. They bring their best talent up from AA, and use AAA to season the backup players. I also know that before this season I had no clue who the hell Luke Hughes was so this is a bit of a stab, but some kids get an opportunity and run with it. I would like to see him at 3rd, Tolbert and Harris at SS, and Cassilla at 2nd.
The best 3rd baseman out there right now to me is Hank Blaylock. Texas is bound to come down as the annual June Swoon comes in, and that pitching staff realizes that they are cursed mercinaries kind of like the ghost pirates from the first Pirates of the Carribean. Half cartoon, kind of ghoulish, and above all damned for all eternity for taking the money.
I could see putting together a package of Slowey, Swarzack, and Lamb to get Blaylock. Texas needs quality pitchers, and Slowey might not be an ACE by any means, but because he’s not a flame thrower I think he would do better in Texas because retarding an 85 mile an hour fastball to 83 because someone is tired isn’t nearly as damaging as a guy throwing 95 in the 1st inning, and throwing 90 in the 3rd inning because of the heat. That is one of the small reasons why Ponson was doing well. The other is that well, Sir Sidney is a bad boy and when allowed to do bad things he seems to pitch well… kind of like Dwight Gooden or Darryl Strawberry in the 80’s with about 1/10th the talent.
T,
I’ve heard the following excuse before, too:
“Gardy’s hands are tied with the 13 pitchers at the moment. Gardy can plead to have fewer…but it’s not his call in the end.”
Let’s assume that it is Smith and not Gardy who is keeping all thirteen on the active roster (which is a leap of faith to begin with), is anyone actually telling Gardy not to pretend that he does not have Rincon in the team? Gardy should feel that he has 12 pitches and let that particular 13th rot and not put him in games. It is that simple. Ultimately, it is Gardy’s fault.
THE REAL PROBLEM WITH THE TWINS!
TWINS PAYROLL—– 56 MILLION
WHITE SOX PAYROLL- 121 MILLION
Stop crying about Gardy and the lineup. I bet if you give Gardy another 60 million he will put a lineup you like out there. Try buying a ticket to a ballgame. There were no fans at Twins games when we were winning. I bet you wont see much of a difference since we are on a losing skid. I know alot of you go to games, this is for the ones that follow the game on GAMEDAY, then blast the twins and Gardy afterwards.
thrylos98,
“Re Gomez’ no-run from 3rd: It’s all on Ullger and Gardy, unless they game him the sign and he ignored it.”
What sign are you referring to?
Is it the faster-than-light sign they would have to flash AFTER the ball is hit to Jencks?
Or is it the cover-all-situations sign they would have to flash BEFORE the ball is hit.
Both of those signs are, of course, fictional.
Ullger reviewed the situational instructions and Gomez followed them correctly.
If you want to add THIS to your list of complaints against Gardy, you could get a hernia for that stretch!
Punto has played well enough this year where I think I’ve actually had to put the Punterrible nickname on the shelf. I don’t like to see people hurt (unless it’s Kevin McHale… then I’d pay to watch that), but he has played well enough to deserve to be a back up infielder here. But I still think we play Harris at SS until Tolbert gets healthy, then see how he plays at SS and 3rd base.
Is Macri the answer at 3rd? No, is Lamb? Not really, would Buscher do the job? Probably not, in house that leaves Hughes and Valencia. If Smith had the balls to make a big time trade like the one for YOUNG… he should be willing to take a bit of a chance on one of those two kids… scary jumps, but we have nothing else in the organization that can play 3rd. Which is why I wonder what the Twins were thinking when they didn’t take the 3rd baseman from Witchata State (spelling?) who is a solid fielder, and a solid hitter instead of the closer from Miami in the 1st round. I think we could have gotten the closer with the sandwhich pick.
“Gardy should feel that he has 12 pitches and let that particular 13th rot and not put him in games.”
On THAT, we agree.
We need to DFA Rincon and call up Steve Tolleson from New Britian.
BC Beneke,
there are a few problems with the Slowy, Swarzak and Lamb for Blalock proposal:
1. the pitching and not hitting is actually the biggest issue with the team and Slowey, early injury, bad last outing and all, is still one of the best starters in the team and has a very high potential
2. Blalock is not a spring chicken. He is 27, which means he might have 2-3 years of prime left (where Slowey and Swarzak have 12 or so combined). Also, have a look at the drop of his stats and his health after 2006.
3. Trading prospects for established players is fine, but is smart only when the established player is 25-26 years old
Howard,
Gomez made the right play in the 9th. Check out the Gameday video replay. Jenks actually looked Gomez backed to 3rd as he made the DP turn. You see it very well in the 2nd replay of the video from the 1st base camera angle.
Sane,
I agree Casilla should have stolen 2b. Fairly low risk with the pitcher/catcher combination, with a very high reward of tieing run in scoring position with no outs and avoids the DP possibility.
And as for Delmon Young. I have never been in his camp simply because I said from day one trading a stud pitcher for a stud hitter was a mistake.
That being said, I am not saying that Delmon Young is a washup. It’s called a sophomore slump. MANY baseball players deal with it. I think he has shown superb talent, but a questionable head. He doesn’t listen to the coaches which we knew coming in. He is however a 22 year old kid who with a good hitting coach (and someone to stand up in his face as a manager) could keep him from turning into a skirt like Joanne Mauer.
I am sorry, I know he wins batting titles, and he’s the best defensive catcher since Pudge in his prime, and maybe Johnny Bench, but at 6′5 and 230 anything less than 17 homers is a lack of manhood on his part. Driving in runs should be his number one goal, and I think I’d do a major league on him… for ever lazy fly ball to left field he has to pay 100 dollars, and for every god damned ground out double play to the SS he needs to have to do 1000 situps. He’s not even Wade Boggs because Boggs doubled a lot, and I think Boggs actually went the first 8 seasons of his career before he fouled out to the 3rd baseman. Yes seriously. he did hit a lot of balls the other way, but not many were lazy loopers, and sad grounders.
Delmon Young right now just needs time to get it done, and he needs a hitting coach that is capable of getting through to him. So yes I’m back to the Vavra angle on that. Maybe the Twins bring in Molitor or Carew for a few games and just have them work with Young to see if he’ll respect people that know something about hitting?
BC,
Your draft analysis may be correct, but we would not have gotten Shooter Hunt in the sandwich pick. And there is a good chance that he may be the best of out top three. Baseball America had Shooter as the 4th best pitcher in the draft, while Connor Gillaspie From “Witchata State” was rated the 23rd best player by BA.
Whether BA, you or me are right is an absolute crapshoot, I think that Shooter is a wnner.
thrylos…
Blaylock’s main drop came from not having Texiera in the lineup. He is a good fielder, and a power hitter that I think would do well in a change of location.
As for Slowey… yeah he’s a major league pitcher… he’s not much more than that, so as for his ceiling… at the very best he could be a Brad Radke, and that is pushing it to the limits, and I know it’s a sin to say in Minnesota, but Radke was a very good 3rd or 4th starter on a quality team. Swarzack is a potential stud, and I may have went too far choosing him, but we would need to throw in a minor league pitcher… maybe Oswaldo Sosa, or one of the two senior minor leaguers from the Mets?
And the Rangers would probably take Lamb back.
So Blaylock has 2-3 more years of great ball? I think he’s got more like 5, but that’s just me. I’m bias because I’m a fan of his.
……
Sane, good point on Shooter. I worded my comment wrong. It was supposed to be a slam for taking a Closer in the 1st round over a 3rd baseman that is 2 most likely a year or two away from being a Major League ball player… The reason why I would say that is because his eye at the plate has been awesome, and his glove is solid. Those are the two things that you have to have to be a good major leaguer, his glove’s already major league, and so is his eye… now it’s just about getting his body to handle 150-160 games a season, and that’s it. The closer I kind of understand because he’s a stud, and as a College Closer he has a fast track to the majors, but still I’m old fashioned in the fact that I believe you never draft a closer that early.
“THE REAL PROBLEM WITH THE TWINS!
TWINS PAYROLL—– 56 MILLION
WHITE SOX PAYROLL- 121 MILLION”
And the Tigers current payroll is bigger than both of those.
Your argument is rendered invalid.
padre’s are in trouble, would an even swap of cuddy for kouzmanoff work, similar #’s. solve 3b we have monroe and kubel to play rf, lamb a bench bat/dh till we can get rid of him.
don’t think padre’s would trade headley (#1 prospect) and kouzmanoff is blocking him.
isn’t blaylock a fa after this yr?
“Gardy should feel that he has 12 pitches and let that particular 13th rot and not put him in games. It is that simple. Ultimately, it is Gardy’s fault.”
You say that ignoring the part where I reference it as a reason behind Gardy’s inability to play with the lineup much (as in, getting younger guys some play time)
As for major league dumping grounds for our players if this team does not turn it around this month…
Mike Lamb - NY Yankees. He would be the ulitmate bench guy to back up at 3rd and 1st, and let Betimet be the back up SS/2B
Livan Hernandez, Cincy.
Brian Bass has Seattle Mariner written all over him… mediocrity has a home, and if KC doesn’t snatch him up, Seattle would die for him.
Trading Cuddyer with 18-20 million left on his contract? You would have to pray that Manny or Ortiz is injured and that the Red Sox need a bat. Maybe (on a limb) the DEVIL rays (I hate the rays name change) as Carlos Pena has been hurt, and Gomes has been under achieving, and that Cuddyer is almost a home town kind of guy being from that that part of the country?
Boof Bonser - right now no major league team would claim him, and he’d end up in the Phillies AAA, or possibly with the Cubs AAA team.
Brendon Harris - a middle infielder would have to go down on a contender, and then we might be a Macri type ball player for him… a major league 24-25th man kind of guy.
This team is a transition team… it’s the beginning built for 2010. I said before Livan 68 wins, and after him 74 wins, and while Howard and the rest want to see this as a collapse. I see it as Gardenhire was building a house of cards, or blowing a bubble, and it got bigger than expected, but inevitably had to come down or pop.
Gomez has used bad judgement all season, but yesterday it was not the WORST decision he could make. The worst thing that happened was the Twins radio announcers (were born) said that Mauer had a big stick. Mauer should play with a Pink bat every game.
I think that Luke Hughes is probably a better solution at 3B than either Kouzmanoff or Blalock (who btw is a free agent at the end of but TX has an option). Add Valencia to the mix, and the Twins have decent depth in 3B in the system and makes sense to see what they have before make trades. That said I, would trade pitching for any 3rd baseman named (Longoria, Wright or Zimmerman)
Great analysis Howard. Maybe now the Twins will concentrate on the future. I’d like Hughes to come back, and stay healthy for 3+ weeks before calling him up, but I think they should roll the dice on him if he returns and returns to his new found form. I’d put him at 3rd, as he is better than any current option and Valencia is 2 years away at least. If you think Valencia is closer than that, then Hughes goes to 2nd, and Casilla moves to SS.
I love Joe nathan as a player, and he seems like a great human being. But, if Gardy won’t ever use him except in save situations in the 9th (instead of high leverage situations like an innovative manager will eventually will prove is the right thing to do), then the Twins can’t afford him and he’s worth more as trade bait. I’d be sad to see it happen, as I think he’s one of the 3 best relievers in the game, but if he and a middle tier player could be turned into a top prospect, you need to consider it.
As for trading Livan, you only do that if you think Duensing or Liriano get more out of being the majors than in AAA this year.
As for going from 3rd there, why would you do that? I see no upside to going there at all. I will say I was not shocked to see mauer hit into a DP in that situation, but that does not make him anything less than one of the 10 best OBP machines in the game, from a catcher.
Finally, Smith and Gardy and the rest of the leadership of this team need to come to an agreement on what this team is or is not. If Smith and Gardy have a different view on O v D and other things, then Gardy needs to go. Frankly, I think Gardy needs to go anyway. They have gotten less and less good at the little things the longer he has been in charge, and I think that is on him. But, either way, this team and its leadership needs to decide on what it wants to be, and then try to be it. Right now, Gardy and Smith do not seem to be on the same page (Harris being example A, with 13 pitchers and the fear of losing a guy being example B).
T -
I think he was just meaning that you have to pay for talent, and that the DL White, Bautista, Lamb, R. Ortiz, Everett CRAP is getting tired.
bring in one major league stud. Just one once, and see what happens! I mean in 1990 a team was mediocre at best… picked up something called Chili Davis, and some past his prime STUD PITCHER named Jack Morris, and two rookies came on in Erickson and Knoblauch and the team won the world series or something didn’t they? lol.
Taking chances is risky, but it is also the only way to get a high reward. The Twins philosophy SEEMS to be to be competetive, to keep 1.8 to 2.2 million fans in the dome, but never to put together that team that would draw 3 million fans to the dome. This state supports winners (no offense, but some of the worst fans in all of sports make up most of Minnesota)… This team teased… Now it’s like that hot girl in high school who teased you, and now at the 15 year reunion she’s 210 lbs, and you can have her without blinking an eye, but you don’t want her anymore.
I know that’s not nice, but that’s how I see Minnesota sports fans in general. We are a front runner area… too many distractions to be diehard and loyal to anything except the Vikings because it’s only 8 home games, and it is the NFL which is the perfect sport medium for the 21st century where most people have a 3 second attention span.
BC,
The biggest reason to draft Connor Gillaspie is that we are organizationally overloaded with pitching and deficient with positinal players. And when we see Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun and Ryan Zimmerman go from NCAA to MLB stars at third base from the same draft, it makes you think that Gillaspie might be from the same mold.
Why should fans support non-winners? What incentive would there be for any sports team to field a good team if people went to the games win or lose?
Don’t disparage other fans for how they choose to support or not support their team. There is NOTHING wrong with not going to a game if the team is bad, nothing.
I agree with the rest of your post, though.
Blaylock is moving to 1B when he gets off of the DL. His shoulder and wrist simply can not handle the throw from 3rd any more. I don’t think he is an option.
Cuddy and Kubel aren’t going anywhere either. Quit daydreaming about it.
Casilla stays at 2b. He is money there for some reason. Even though he has the arm to play SS, he looks great at 2B. No need to mess with him . Punto, if he can stay healthy (always a big if) should play SS, and Lamb/Harris should split 3rd, with Tolbert the super sub. Everett better not play another game. What they really need to get for Rincon is a guy who can play 2B, SS and 3B defensively, and who cares what he does with the stick, until Tolbert comes back in August. I hated the guy, but someone in the Luis Rodriguez mode, that can easily be dumped in August.
My ideal roster moving forward:
CF Gomez
2B Casilla
C Mauer
1B Morneau
RF Cuddyer
DH Kubel
LF Young
3B Lamb/Harris
SS Punto
Bench:
The other 3B
Redmond
Tolbert(some other spare part until Aug)
Monroe
Hernandez
Baker
Slowey
Blackburn
Perkins
Nathan
Guerrier
Reyes
Breslow
Crain
Bonser
Bass or Korecky (my feelings wouldn’t be hurt if Bass got shipped out of town)
Franchise comes back up when/if Livan is traded at the deadline
And, it is the casual fan that makes the difference between 2 and 3 MM people. There just aren’t that many serious fans for any team. And, why are people bad sports fans if they choose to also do other things besides just spend their money on watching millionaires and subsidized owners?
Always good to see someone recognizing that Punto needs to play every day. When he gets back off the dl the team will right the ship and get back in the race.
IMO Smith should be working on a contract extension for Nicky.
Sane.
exactly my point.
Though if you see a pitcher who you can project as a number 1-2 starter you have to take him.
The closer however… still troubles me.
T ur right!
The payroll of a team has nothing to do with how good they are and the amount of the payroll has nothing to do with how many people actually buy tickets to go to a game.
Your knowledge of baseball has become invalid now.
My biggest concern is organizational. For years, people have talked about the “fundamentally sound” Twins and, with one galring exception, have been correct. while not the case this year, this should be expected due to the youth and will improve (look at the late 90’s teams for an example). But the glaring exception remains.
The best hitters in the game see a lot of pitches. They are not free swingers, and while they go up the middle and the other way, they also can pull the ball on the inner half of the plate.
The best hitter on the Twins now sees the most pitches, goes up the middle and the other way, and looks to be figuring out how to pull the ball. That last part often takes a few years (see Ortiz, David - who if he had in the Metrodome the way he does in Fenway would have been a Twin a lot longer and still goes the other way and up the middle when that’s what the pitch allows him to do) but my concern is with the fundamentally awful organazational philosophy of hitting of “flail and bail.”
I don’t think the Twins will ever get to the next level until their hitters figure out that looking at pitches until you either get a pitch to drive or taking what’s given when you have two strikes - in other words plate discipline as opposed to the current organization wide philospohy of free swinging.
They have figured out better than most organizations that pitchers who throw strikes tend to do better than those who don’t. Now if they could just see the light on plate discipline as well.
where is craig?
Rincon is worthless as a major leaguer. He has proved time and time again that he needed the steroids to be a major league pitcher. HE hasn’t shown anything since he was suspended.
And now it’s time to cut him loose.
I kind of like the idea of cutting Bass loose too.
Bring up Graves before the deadline to see if he has anything left, and then use him to get someone from a contender, and then when he’s traded bring up Korecky.
But I am sorry for my temper.
I will be gone for the next three days. I have a funeral to take care of so I will talk to you all on Thursday night or Friday sometime.
BC Beneke
It is not how much money you spend on payroll it is HOW you spend your money on payroll. The Marlins and Rays have pretty good records with small payrolls. Detroit put together a fantasy team that has no chemistry and they look like a Yankees team from a few years ago.
BC,
Carlos Gutierrez is a closer for Miami NOW, because his recovery from TJ surgery is not complete.
He was and will be a starting pitcher and that is how the Twins project him and why they drafted him ahead of Connor Gillaspie and Gerritt Cole (97mph fastball in HS).
Right or wrong - we’ll see in 3-5 years.
And by the way, for everyone complaining about Mauer’s dp and Morneau’s ground-out and how the Twins never get the big hit: The reason the Twins ahve as many wins as they do is their unsustainably high batting average with RISP. As they return to league average, they are going to have a number of games and series where they don’t get that big timely hit as they’ve used up a lot of their seasons worth already.
jp is correct.
Change of subject matter - Does anyone care to comment on Mauer and his unwillingness to guard the plate? I watch almost every game on MLB because I’m usually out of town. I’ve seen about a dozen close throws to Mauer at home this year and he is ALWAYS out of position, 2 feet in front of the plate, and the runner easily sweeps a hand across the plate and beats the sweep tag. He never blocks the plate and looks like he’s playing scared of contact after last years trip to the DL. Does anyone else see this??
the Twins have had TOO many close plays at the plate. If the pitchers were doing their jobs better there would not be so many plays and it would be a non issue. Would it be worth it to have someone crash through Mauer and have him out for the season? Would he be more of a man in people’s eyes if he took one for the team and saved 1 whole run like that?
Looks like we’ve moved beyond the ‘Gomez at third’ discussion, but I wanted to make a point: I don’t think sane’s analysis is strictly accurate.
Runners at the corners, none out, down two. Ground ball to the infield that looks like a DP ball. If you can turn the DP, then it doesn’t matter if the run scores or not — either way Morneau is still the tying run.
If you go for home and get hung up, as long as the Sox don’t get another out in that situation, then you’re actually better off — you’ve got Morneau and then the next hitter (Cuddyer? Kubel? I forget), each of whom represents the potential go-ahead run. More to the point, if Gomez can keep himself alive in the rundown until the runners make it to second and third (and with Gomez’s speed, I don’t see why not), then you avoid the easy DP and set up a game-tying single for either of the next two hitters.
If Ullger made the split-second decision that the grounder would be too tough for the Sox to turn two on, then credit Chicago’s defense for pulling it off. If Gomez was too timid to make the break on his own, that’s a rookie thing and probably shouldn’t be held against him too much. I still see that the right play is to send Gomez if there’s any chance of a double play.
As for ‘75 being the new 70′, those of us who predicted the Twins finishing the season at 70 wins (or less) never predicted the path the Twins would take to get there. Just because the Twins were better than expected to this point doesn’t mean the Twins will continue to play as expected the rest of the way — as the recently concluded series with Chicago should demonstrate pretty decisively.
Really, all of the “Gomez @ third” talks is pretty worthless.
Because on the next play, Morneau bounced into what would’ve been a game ending DP.
So instead of the Twins losing 7-5 with the 6th run at third…they’ve have lost 7-5 with the 6th run at third.
Someone should look more closely at one’s numbers for the year before asking them to be more of a “man”:
“The payroll of a team has nothing to do with how good they are and the amount of the payroll has nothing to do with how many people actually buy tickets to go to a game.”
You fail to put up a substantial argument. A winning team draws fans butts to the seats. And as Colorado’s surge last year and Tampa Bay’s surge this year has demonstrated…a team can win without neccesarilly jacking up the payroll.
“I think he was just meaning that you have to pay for talent…”
If that’s what he means, then he can be a big boy and say it. The long-running oversimplification that “payroll = wins” is in dire need of being put out to pasture.
The Tigers, Yanks, and Rays have shown that payroll doesn’t always equate to winning percentage.
And as far as “pay to get talent” you have to keep in mind that the Twins decided in the 07 offseason to not take that route (as the kind of money needed to make the team great NOW would’ve been very difficult to put together in one offseason)
That’s why they took the rebuild route. The goal is to get young talent such as Young and Gomez (and about 80% of their pitching staff) through those growing pain years all at once and then start suplementing them in the Free-Agent and trade market once they know where the youth works and where it doesn’t.
That’s why they locked up Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer (though Cuddyer has yet to prove he’s earning his wages) as well as signed Nathan again. They felt they had those postitions secured and wanted to focus on building around that core.
Gomez has shown signs of maturing, and Young hasn’t been himself to be the wreckless bat-tosser so many thought he would be (his comments after Gardy benched him a week or so again are signs of that)
The next step from here is to sign those guys that work out (Gomez, Young, Casilla if continues his succes).
You want to know why the Twins lost yesterday?
How about the fact that the “goto guys” that everybody wanted in the game on Friday instead of Rincon weren’t able to hold a lead late in the game?
the reason the Twins lost yesterday is that their bullpen has been asked to pitch way too many innings lately. If our starts can get back to going 6-7 innings we can cut back on the number of pitchers we are carrying.
Cleveland will do the exact same thing to them in this series. At least the Twins can beat Chicago when they’re playing well. Cleveland wipes the field with them regardless of momentum.
as for mauer not blocking the plate it is a real issue. it has cost us several runs this year and it is part of the catchers job. if he is afraid of getting hurt he should be the dh. catchers have blocked the plate for over 100 yrs suddenly we don’t want to get hurt. that’s bs!
keep some of those runners off base and we are not talking about blocking the plate all the time. Or put Jaq Jones back in the outfield and his throws would be so weak that it would really be a non issue.
How about just serve up more HRs, that way they just walk across home plate instead of having to slide across it… oh wait, we already DO THAT.
David Michael Wintheiser,
To clarify:
Jencks is not going to hang up Gomez with a two run lead in that situation.
Its “go for the DP” all the way.
That puts the tying run back in the batters box, rather than at 1B (if Jencks had gone after Gomez instead of turning the DP)
If Gomez had gone on contact, he would have scored on the DP unless Jencks had been stupid enough to throw home instead of 2B.
However, if they turn the DP and Gomez goes home, there is the remote possibility that Gomez falls down and is tagged out as the third out of a triple play, leaving Morneau in the on deck cicle to end the game. As remote and ridiculous as that is, thats the reason Gomez should stay at third when his run means NOTHING! HE CANNOT MAKE AN OUT WHEN HE IS NOT THE TYING OR LEAD RUN!!!! Thats his ONLY job - Don’t make an out!!!
1. Payroll usually equals more wins. Just because a low payroll once won something, doesn’t mean it’s a solid philosophy. Just because somebody smoked for 50 years and was healthy doesn’t mean cigarettes don’t cause cancer.
2. Did the Twins think about a hit and run with Gomez running on contact as a play? With Mauer at the plate, he can at least foul off most pitches. More hit and run with Mauer at the plate.
3. Mauer and Young can hit more home runs any time the Twins want. Then we can start complaining that they are hitting .240 with so many strikeouts when all we really needed was a single for an rbi. Or, maybe, just maybe, it doesn’t matter how big somebody is if all they know is to swing level and hit line drives.
4. This team is not making any trades. This team (owner) is content with the fan base. Just enough fans for just enough player salary. This team is still gearing up for 2010, or did that somehow change in two months?
T,
payroll doesn’t always equate to winning percentage
yes and no. Here is a table with the current standings and opening day payrolls for MLB:
BOS 40 26 .606 — $133,390,035
TBR 38 26 .594 1.0 $ 48,689,783
BAL 31 31 .500 7.0 $ 67,196,246
NYY 32 32 .500 7.0 $209,081,577
TOR 33 33 .500 7.0 $ 97,973,900
CHW 37 26 .587 — $121,189,332
MIN 31 33 .484 6.5 $ 56,932,766
CLE 29 35 .453 8.5 $ 78,970,066
DET 26 37 .413 11.0 $137,685,196
KCR 25 39 .391 12.5 $ 58,245,500
LAA 39 26 .600 — $119,216,333
OAK 34 29 .540 4.0 $ 47,967,126
TEX 32 33 .492 7.0 $ 67,712,326
SEA 23 41 .359 15.5 $117,666,482
PHI 39 26 .600 — $ 98,269,880
FLA 34 29 .540 4.0 $ 21,811,500
ATL 32 32 .500 6.5 $102,365,683
NYM 30 32 .484 7.5 $137,793,376
WSN 25 40 .385 14.0 $ 54,961,000
CHC 40 24 .625 — $118,345,833
STL 38 27 .585 2.5 $ 99,624,449
MIL 33 30 .524 6.5 $ 80,937,499
HOU 32 32 .500 8.0 $ 88,930,414
PIT 31 33 .484 9.0 $ 48,689,783
CIN 31 34 .477 9.5 $ 74,117,695
ARI 34 30 .531 — $ 66,202,712
LAD 30 33 .476 3.5 $118,588,536
SFG 29 35 .453 5.0 $ 76,594,500
SDP 28 37 .431 6.5 $ 73,677,616
COL 24 39 .381 9.5 $ 68,655,500
The teams that are leading the divisions (with the exception of Diamondbacks) have higher than average payroll in their division. I think that if a team is assembled correctly, a high payroll would help it reach the post-season. In some instances, like the Yankees and Tigers, a high payroll means a lot of older players, which is not a great recipe to win…
I haven’t analyzed all of the plays at the plate, but it seems to me I recall Mauer not blocking the plate because he was moving several feet away to catch a throw that was off line. So Mauer’s choices are to block the plate and potentially miss catching the ball altogether, or move to get the ball and then try making the tag. BTW, A-Rod was out on that play!!
Macleod,
“Did the Twins think about a hit and run with Gomez running on contact as a play?”
If Gomez is running “on contact”, you are risking a triple play on a caught line drive, with Mauer forced to swing at a potentially bad pitch and hit it on the ground.
If Gomez is running on “ball down angle off the bat”, you are still risking a double play on a caught line drive, because Casilla is running and Mauer is forced to swing at a potentially bad pitch.
My choice was straight steal with Casilla running on Jencks and Hall.
The Twins final choice obviously was “none of the above”.
If they considered any of the above they had a lot of pitches to try one of them.
Tough call re: Gomez because the pitcher fielded the ball.
Ordinarily, SOP is the ball has to get past the pitcher before you break for the plate.
To figure it out, you have to consider the potential results:
* Jenks goes to 2nd, they turn the DP, Gomez scores, Twins down 1 with 2 outs & bases empty.
* Jenks goes to 2nd, Gogo breaks home, they get the force & the SS throws home - we’d have 1 or 2 outs & a runner on 1st, with the tying run at the plate.
* Jenks comes home, Twins wind up with runners @ 1st & 2nd with one out, still down 2.
* Someone screws it up & everyone’s safe.
IMO, Gomez should’ve gone home the second Jenks turned to 2nd.
This series tells us something about the White Sox, and also tells us something about the Twins. Things are as they are. The White Sox are 10 games over .500. That’s how good they are. If they can stay there they’ll probably win the division. The Twins are 3 under .500. Thats’ how good we are. That’s probably were we’ll end the season. Hopefully our learning curve doesn’t last more than 1 year.
