OK, let’s assume that any resurrection by the Twins into a contender will be an unexpected surprise, which is pretty much what we were thinking at the beginning of the year. Right now, for all of the offensive struggles, I think Cleveland has a better chance to finding itself in the division race than the Hometown 13, oops, Nine. You’ve got to think Cleveland is looking forward to greeting the Twins tonight and wondering whether the Hometown Nine’s 13-man pitching staff will help cure its bats.

The people who were the gloomiest about this season were looking at the Twins as a 70-win team. That would translate into 70-92, which would be their worst record since 2000. That would have likely landed the Twins fourth in the division, or perhaps fifth if Kansas City was to show some of the improvement that was expected — and has been expected since the Clinton presidency.

That 70-92 was predicated on Cleveland and Detroit battling for the title and the White Sox improving over their 2007 meltdown. Only the White Sox are living up to those expectations right now.

So far, the Twins are 5-3 against Detroit, which still seems to be spinning listlessly toward a season that couldn’t have been imagined, and the Twins beat Cleveland in 2 of 3 games during their series in April. So, as a result, there are a few more wins to be taken from those division rivals that we could have expected back in March.

As a result, 75 feels like the pessimistic baseline right now because, as flawed as the Twins are, they’re not as bad as the team that just dropped four games in Chicago and gave up 40 runs in doing so.

If I’m a Twins’ decision-maker right now, I gave the team through the end of the month to show me that it wants to be taken seriously — and then, if the division lead continues to slip further away, I tell the manager to fill out lineup cards with an eye toward the future. For example, that means Casilla at second with a steady partner (or two) at shortstop and someone other than Mike Lamb at third, providing someone is still healthy enough for the positions.

The Lamb thing is painful because he makes a good hero when he does do well — an engaging and funny interview who seems to have the game in perspective. But with Macri, Buscher, Tolbert and maybe even Harris, Lamb’s presence on a regular basis would retard the decision-making that needs to be done.

I’m going to defer the rest of the “what I would do” stuff for now, though. I’ll deal with pitching, power, trades and the rest down the road, although you can go ahead on the look ahead weigh-ins. (One good thing: Nobody is having the “move Mauer from behind the plate” debate right now.

I pretty much wanted to point out that the one and only feeble benefit of what happened in Chicago over the last four days was that it served as a reality check for what this season was likely to be about all along.

One other thing, though, for the baseball strategists in the house. (Let’s call this the Sane Baseball Academy, as a tribute to our in-house coach and frequent commenter.) Go back to the ninth inning of yesterday’s game: Runners of first (Casilla) and Gogomez (third) with none out and down by 2. Mauer hits the one-hopper that Jenks reaches for and snares, then starts a double play. If you’re Gogomez at third, it seems like you break for home instead of staying there.

One of three things is likely to happen: 1) You get in a rundown and the Twins still have two runners on base with one out, maybe at second and third if you do it well enough; 2) The White Sox ignore you, turn the DP and at least it’s 7-6 with two outs and Morneau batting; 3) You create havoc because you’re Gogomez and the Sox throw the ball away. Weigh in on that one, if you want.

other people are here too

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 10th, 2008 at 8:50 am and is filed under Thoughts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.