Scott Baker: What the future could look like, with patience
Posted on June 11th, 2008 – 8:48 AMBy Howard
Remember when we wondered about Scott Baker, a young pitcher who looked like he was AAA+ at the best, someone with not quite enough stuff to be a part of the Twins rotation? He bounced back and forth between the Twins and Rochester in 2006 and ‘07 after showing some promise when called up toward the end of 2005. At the end of last season there was several excellent starts, including the night he took a perfect game into the ninth inning against Kansas City. He’s gone from someone who provoked skepticism to someone whose name is always mentioned when the team’s future rotation is put together.
That’s what experience can do.
Going into last night’s 1-0 loss, Baker had pitched 800 professional innings — about 60 percent of them in the minors. With rare exceptions (Bert Blyleven was one), the stuff that makes a young pitcher attractive enough to be drafted needs significant refinement before he can be considered a solid major-leaguer. That experience comes only one way: Innings.
Baker’s development can be seen as a road map for Kevin Slowey (477 professional innings) and Glen Perkins (442). That Nick Blackburn seems to be ahead of them right now should be less of a surprise when you consider that he’s thrown 793 innings — and that his struggles are so often centered on his tendency to yield big innings. That’s a mental thing he needs to conquer.
Yes, it’s hard to watch Slowey on the days when he doesn’t have enough to handle a lineup filled with good hitters. I raised the suspicion that his near-shutout in Kansas City a couple of weeks back was a “false positive,” and I’m afraid I was right. But if we are patient and Slowey throws another 130-140 innings in the majors this season, he could be the Baker of the 2009 rotation. He has enough stuff to handle Triple-A batters and now needs to figure out how to use that stuff in the majors. I look at the early years of Glavine and Maddux and see hope.
Today, I’d suggest Slowey watch an endless loop of CC Sabathia’s pitch to Gogomez in the third inning last night. If you saw it, you know what I’m talking about.
And Perkins? He looks pretty good for a guy with seven major-league starts.
In case you’re wondering, the Twins’ impatience with Boof Bonser, which has landed him in the bullpen for the foreseeable future, is a combination of his ineffectiveness and the fact that he’s pitched 50 percent more professional innings than any of these other pitchers — 1,230.
The Blylevens of the world, who can come in and pitch well from the start (age 19 in the majors in his case) are few and far between. That’s among the many, many reasons why Bert is a Hall of Fame worthy pitcher.
I know it’s hard to be patient, but would you rather be watching Carlos Silva every fifth day?
A postscript: The ninth-inning, double-play, base-running thing I brought up yesterday engendered more chatter than I thought. I ended up talking to some baseball types about what happened and (just like here) there was no consensus, aside from the fact that having Casilla steal second against Bobby Jenks/Toby Hall was a solid idea (sane’s suggestion). There were a couple of folks who said Gogomez should have taken off from third on Mauer’s one-hopper that Jenks reached to grab, no matter what — that he would likely have been ignored, but if he’d been caught in a rundown the Twins would have had two on and one out instead of one on and two outs. A couple of others said it’s too much to ask a young player to break the conventional wisdom of waiting for the ball to clear the pitcher before taking off. The other consensus was that being able to dissect a play a half-dozen ways from yesterday is one of the reasons baseball is better than most things.
Now, about those three two* base-running blunders in a 1-0 loss…
(*see comments below)
other people are here too
70 Responses to "Scott Baker: What the future could look like, with patience"
We are going to need a lot of patience the rest of this year becuse it’s going to be a roller coaster ride from here on out.
We are going to need patience but i dont think the season will be as bad as most people have been talking the past couple days. i believe our young starters will settle down, we have a decent offense and i think we can still hang in there for the wild card, if we can get slowey to pitch 6 strong every night giving up under 4 along with baker who will keep us in the game, Get Boof Back in the rotation, Perkins may be moved to Bulpen. Livan, well who knows with him at this point. And Blackburn who has pitched well just needs to have a better game plan. in my mind most of the problems of our starters are not mechanical they are either gameplan issues or lack of aggression on the mound, which can be fixed. my Two cents for the day
I think Howard’s analysis here is also an argument for keeping Livan Hernandez on a short leash. Assuming that one of the guys in Rochester looks ready, the Twins shouldn’t delay in bringing him up to the majors and letting him get after it for the rest of this season. Even if he struggles and even if it means cutting Livan. The goal is to have a solid rotation for 2009.
Forget the wild card. We are further behind in the wild card than we are to first place in the Central Division. The only hope for a post season birth is to win the Central division. In other words, there is no hope. But the future looks bright. 2 or 3 years down the road, I think this team will be a legitimate contender.
@ Peter -
Joe C writes today that Liriano had a solid, Liriano-esque outing in Rochester (6IP, 6H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K). Might there be an All-Star break Hernandez trade/Liriano promotion brewing? My only worry is about injury and overwork; you don’t want young pitchers going from 140 innings one year to 220 the next, but if Livan can’t even make it out of the fourth inning, well….
Peter I disagree with that i think Howards analysis points out how much we need a solid veteran presence in the rotation. I know the Twins didn’t expect him to be a 20 game winner or even a 15 game winner they just wanted someone they could rely on to give them 6 innings every start. Livan will have his ups and downs as well but i still think he belongs in the rotation all year unless he falls completely apart.
Slowey pitched about 350 innings in the minors and reached AAA before he was called up.
he is one of the exceptions. Usually teams let pitchers go about 500 IP in pro ball before they are called up for mid season duty. Some other notable exceptions from current pitchers : Buchholz (~250), Kazmir (220), Garza (~ 200) Garrett Olson (~350) Ian Kennedy (~150), Philip Hughes (~220). It is obvious that pitchers (even high potential ones) need a certain number of innings before they are consistently productive in the bigs no matter what their minor league results are. Liriano had pitched about 500 innings in the minors before his breakout/breakdown. Current people in the Twins’ organization at or around the 500 Inning number are (ages in parenthesis):
Liriano (24) 725
Simonitsch (25) 538
Swarzak (22) 508
Duensing (25) 458
Sosa (22) 448
Mullins (24) 433
Given that Simonitsch is not going any place soon, it would not be impossible that at least a couple of the other pitchers in this list (most notably Liriano, Duensing and Swarzak) might get a shot to help this season
Re: Liriano coming up…
I think that it would be a mistake to call him up soon. He is progressing, both in velocity and locations and he is striking people out. However, he is throwing way too many pitches and it is hard for him to go more than 7 (in the minors). If he is called up now, he will be at best an average pitcher (and the Twins have several of those), who might get hit hard on occasion and that would not help his confidence. What he needs is to dominate AAA, have a great spring and be the ace of the 2009 staff. No need to rush
I want to amplify Howard’s excellent point. We have young pitchers who are having ups and downs. The downs are made worse,though, because we don’t seem to have a bullpen that can come in on a regular basis and hold a lead or keep a game close. We have lost a lot of games this year when we have scored four runs or more. (and our sloppy fielding hasn’t helped either)
personally I think it is harder to watch Blackburn out there. When he is off, the only pitch he throws is that cutter away. I have never seen a pitcher fall more in love with a pitch than blackburn and his cutter.
There is no doubt that we should show some patience with the Twins pitchers. None of them have dominating stuff that screams immediate success. Of course, that is part of the problem. None of them have the stuff to be dominant w/o great control and pitching acumen. Franchise showed that two years ago, but no one knows if he can return to that.
It would be nice if the Twins had a player with stuff so good that harnessing it was only somewhat necessary, and not completely necessary. Of course, I feel the same way about some of the hitters. We should expect success and failure.
One thing some people seem to be missing is the word “could”, however. There is no guarantee that our patience will be rewarded in all cases. The biggest issue I have with the Twins is their inability to lose patience faster (Rincon being one example). Sometimes you just need to cut bait….
Side note: It is pretty funny that in the midst of a season-high six game losing streak and all of the concerns that have come along with it, we’re still talking about whether or not Go-go should’ve darted for home Monday afternoon. Bottom line there is no matter what Go-go does (if he scores, if he stays put, if he gets caught in a rundown to prevent a double play), it still doesn’t change the fact that our two best hitters–Mauer and Morneau–failed in the clutch in that inning. I challenge anyone to explain how Go-go could’ve altered that reality.
Howard wants to challenge Joe C for Homer of the Month in June I see with his statement on Blyleven: “That’s among the many, many reasons why Bert is a Hall of Fame worthy pitcher.” One too many ‘manys’, perhaps? Hey, I think Bert should be there, too, but there’s also a reason that it’s taken this long–obviously this is ONLY a consensus take here in Minnesota.
Well, if it isn’t one thing it’s another with our club, huh? Remember back in April when C.C. was garbage? What happened to those days? Ahh, what the heck, last night was as close to a “win” as we’ve had in a long time and even though it doesn’t count that way in the standings, I say we take some optimism out of that game and hope we find a way to win the remaining two with the Tribe. I still think we are primed to dominate interleague play.
However, I’ll leave with the same question I had after the Chicago series…leadership, anyone? Who’s the man and when are we going to see it (and please, don’t say Mike Redmond)?
leadership, anyone? Who’s the man and when are we going to see it
Depends what you mean by “leadership”? If you mean someone like Hunter who was yelling, pointing fingers and throwing punches at teammates in the clubhouse, I hope we never see it.
If by “leadership” you mean a player who will go out and stop a losing streak by getting 4 hits, slam a couple of homers or pitch a shutout or strike out the side on late innings to win the game (which is the kind of leadership I prefer to see from players), we saw examples of that several times this season.
If by “leadership” you mean a manager who is going to get involved and communicate with his players and try to find solutions, instead of whining to the press about his players and his boss, I am afraid we’ll have to wait a few years to see it.
well said thrylos98… Hunter’s supposed “leadership” was a bunch of bunk.. he became a clubhouse Cancer and distraction.. and in my opinion poisoned Johan attitude so much so that it contributed to his wanting to leave Twin’s org. leadership needs to start with the manager and frankly Gardy seems like he has lost the “fire” remember his first couple of seasons when he was fiery and getting thrown out of games for sticking up for his players? I miss that Gardy..
“Now, about those three base-running blunders in a 1-0 loss…”
Surely you aren’t counting the DP early in the game where Mauer was dead in the water?
Mauer took his lead off first (like any player does). The ball is hit on a line to the 2Bman.
1) If the ball hits the ground, the 2B goes to second and the relay gets the out at 1B easy.
2) If the ball stays in the air (like it did), the 2B catches it and doubles off Mauer who doesn’t even have time to get back from his normal lead. Do
In that situation, there’s no way Mauer is safe. If he stays planted at first then he’s an idiot if the ball hits the ground. If he takes off to second he’s an idiot if the ball is caught.
On the other hand…Gomez getting doubled off early in the game was poor baserunning. Everybody will blame Ulger, but both he and Gomez have to work together on that one.
Macri getting picked off was also bad baserunning.
But the Mauer thing? Seriously?
“instead of whining to the press about his players and his boss, I am afraid we’ll have to wait a few years to see it.”
Further evidence that people have no idea what they’re complaining about anymore.
Gardy comes out after a loss and says “We played our butts off.” and everybody jumps on him as never getting fired up or taking his team to task.
So then Gardy comes in after a loss and states he wasn’t pleased about the team’s performance, or that he doesn’t agree with the FO’s decisions….and everybody jumps on him for throwing his players and FO under the bus.
If that ain’t the best case of the No-Win mindset 80% of commenters come into this place with…I don’t know what is.
“There is no doubt that we should show some patience with the Twins pitchers.”
Can we also show some patience with some of the hitters? Most noteably, Gomez and Young?
Isn’t Baker more veteran than Young?
If we can sit back and give Baker the benefit of the doubt because of what he did last year (which I am), then surely Young deserves the same sort of “chance”…
T - I just want to say those are two of the best blog comments I have seen on the Strib sites ever!! Thank you!!!
T –
You’re right about the Mauer/Morneau DP. Just watched the replay. I saw the Gomez and Macri mistakes and was working without a net on the third.
thrylos98,
“Given that Simonitsch is not going any place soon”
I am sure your meaning was “any place” UP, and you are right. But as long as his ERA is 9.96 and climbing, he may, indeed, be going someplace soon. If he is not killed by a line drive first.
Nothing Mauer could do.
Gomez’s play was a baserunning blunder that you really dont’ want to see.
As for Macri getting picked off. I watched it and saw the replay and he just took off. In other words, my guess is he was told to just go on first movement and hope. There are many teams that do that with a lefty on the mound. The hope is the the pitcher throws home. So, in my mind, that isn’t a huge baserunning mistake in the same way that a true pickoff would be.
Howard…
but even the MANAGER seemed to give Mauer a pass on his baserunning gaffe if you read the quotes in Joe C’s story in today’s paper…Gardy basically said he was going to be in no-man’s land either way…so once again, Mauer can do no wrong.
But forget about breaking down what Gardy says after the game…I much prefer to judge Gardy based on what happens during the game…and although I agree whole-heartedly with Dan Barreiro that individual mistakes on a team full of youngsters shouldn’t be cause for alarm, the fact is things are starting to add up in the negative for this team (in ways that no one expected) and the man at the top of the accountability todem pole is Gardy.
Right now the team is losing…if the bullpen continues to be as porous as the Nebraska Cornhuskers defense and the defensive / baserunning fundamentals do not improve, then the manager has to take heat over this. I say let’s wait until this interleague stretch plays itself out…
As enticing as it is to compare Sloweyblackburnperkinsbaker to the early days of Glavine and Maddox, it is also easy to compare these youngsters to others who showed some promise – Kyle Lohse, Allan Anderson, and Roger Erickson come to mind – and hit the end of the trail sooner than expected.
The essential message about being patient is on target regardless, but the promise of better work from these fellows in the years to come is no lock just because Glavine and Maddox also had some bad outings in the early days.
I think the Twins look pretty solid. I don’t think they need to change much.
If any changes are made, I would recommend the following three:
1) Try to add pitching depth. You can never have too much pitching.
2) Try to add depth at SS. It appears to be, the weakest position throughout the organization. Unless Punto can do the job, or Everett can rebound, the Twins are desperately in need of a major league SS.
3) Release or non-tender some of the under-achievers this off-season. Take some chances, by parting with borderline players.
Oh, and we just added a ‘nothing Mauer could do from Seth, as well’.
Wow I wish I had as many people who will blindly jump to my defense in life…must be a nice combo–freakishly gifted, unfathomably compensated, and a complete lack of accountability at every turn.
I doubt it would have made a difference on the M&M DP, but Mauer did make a mistake. As pointed out by the Indians announcers, he didn’t know where the secondbaseman was, so he took a couple steps toward second. In that situation you have to freeze. There’s no way to avoid a DP if it’s played on a hop, but you might be able to avoid a DP on a line drive if you freeze and go back to first. On that play, the secondbaseman was so close to first it probably didn’t matter, but Mauer needs to know before the play where the secondbaseman is playing.
Jason - you are forgetting AXIOM #1 of Twins Rube blogging - thou shall never say a negative comment about any Twins personnel - especially GARdy!!
jason,
“so once again, Mauer can do no wrong.”
Thanks to you, we also get the “Mauer can do no right” perspective.
Especially in this case, when any baseball person with a clue, knows that he was trapped in a no-win situation.
But thanks for giving us balance with your anti-homer rants and “screw the facts!”
How about this for telling it like it is…Mauer’s defense has been well below-average this year. Yes, I said it. He’s throwing base stealers out at a horrendous rate (yes, I get it, it’s all the pitchers’ fault) and he absolutely has no clue how to block the plate (either that or he refuses to).
That and he’s also overseeing a pitching staff that is 22 out of 30 in team ERA.
remember Twin rube motto - “nice little engine that could” why expect excellence when mediocre will do!!
corollary to AXIOM #1 - NEVER NEVER hold Mauer aka “hometown hero” accountable
Is that right, sid?
Apparently Joe C. “has no clue” then, because correct me if I’m wrong, but he cited the Mauer DP as one of the three “baserunning mistakes” last night in his game story for today’s paper.
Joe C. apparently has a habit of screwing the facts, too?
T,
The statements that ‘Gardy has no fire’ and that ‘Gardy should stop blaming others and try to have a positive and inclusive attitude so he can right the ship’ are not contradictory and I think that he just has not been the Gardy of past. It is just bad management and leadership in any job, not only baseball, to hang your hands up, say those are the cards that I have been dealt and there is nothing I can do but blame the cards themselves and the people who dealt them, which is what he is doing.
A good manager in Gardy’s position should not be saying in the press “we threw the ball well” after the Chicago series, or “I did not want 13 pitcher but he gave them to me” or pointing fingers at people for losses. He should be saying something like “that was that, let’s move on to the next game” (gee that sounds too much like TK’s ‘one game at a time quip’ 
) and have team meetings with the players and coaching staff to figure possible solutions.
Gardy has put himself behind walls as far as player involvement is concerned. Make the players part of the solution, not the problem. At least try. That’s all I am saying and it is not negative the least.
I suggest having a positive outlook, forget mistakes and look how the team is going to win the next game, the next series, the division, and further… (which is what good involved managers should be doing, but somehow it seems that Gardy does not have the desire any more)
you have to excuse Sid he is senile and king of the HOMERS he has never seen a Twin’s mistake…
I like JoeC, but if he thinks there was an escape for Mauer in that situation, then he is (temporarily)clueless, too. Although in his case, it isn’t driven by an obsession with Mauer getting more love than him.
Tomorrow, if I posted “Mauer was the 2006 batting champ”, you would be blasting me as a homer, despite the fact that:
1) Its true.
2) I don’t live anywhere near Minnesota.
3) I’m not a homer!
I really wish Gardy would have had Mauer bunt Gomez and Casilla over in the first inning last night. I think when you are on a 5 game losing streak, you need to try to get on the board first. Morneau flyout would have brought Gomez in from third. Twins up 1-0. We wouldn’t be talking about Gomez making another baserunning blunder.
Craig,
good suggestions, but it all depends on how the team is defining itself: Is it a contender this year? Next year? 2010?
If the team decides that 2010 is the year, all older players including Nathan, Reyes, Monroe, Livan, Lamb, Everett, Punto and Cuddyer should be traded for young talent this season, esp. on the pitching and power hitter side of things. Then give young organization talent the opportunity to play. Look at what Casilla is doing this year. Nobody thought that he can do that. Why not bring up good prospects from AA and A+ to see what they can do? Worse comes to worse, they are not ready yet and the team has to wait a year or so.
Howard- I agree with the idea of preaching patience.and T is spot on with his assessment that the young hitters should be given the same rope.
I’ve never been under the impression that this year was going to be anything other than the start of a rebuilding project.That said we also need to be realistic.I don’t think it is realistic to believe that the new crop of Starting pitchers are all going to develope into quality or even servicable ML pitchers.
I think it is now obvious that Boof is what he is,which isn’t much in terms of ML pitching ability.Baker does seem to have turned the corner.I don’t now if he can be the #1 guy in a rotation (hopefully that can still be reserved for Liriano) but he will be a good number two or three for sure.which leaves us with the less seasoned Perkins,Blackburn and Slowey.Of the three, and assuming again that there are going to be failures mixed in with sucesses,I’ll still go with Blackburn and Perkins over Slowey.
The difference to me is simply velocity/stuff and the willing ness to throw to both sides of the plate.Blackburn and Perkins have both and Slowey right now doesn’t have the first, and seems very hesitant to do the second.There are alot of Slowey fans here but we need to stop with the Maddox or even Radke comparisons,as well as the delusion that he will win 150- 200 ML games as some have predicted.As a Twins fan I hope Slowey proves me wrong.It wouldn’t be the first or last time thats happened.
Long story short,not every Twins prospect is destined to be an All-Star,or even a quality ML player.The odds of Baker,Bonser, Slowey,Perkins,and Blackburn all contributing long term to the Twins just aren’t there.If we get three out of five that is probably more than can even be expected.We are all entitled to our opinions,these are mine.
FIRE,
If you think that I am Sid Hartman, then you are more senile than he is.
well i’d say mauer is 3rd on my list, behind morneau & nathan, of the least of our worries. from 4 on up the list your choice whatever order fits the day.
sid declaring himself a non-homer…irony.
No, actually, in spite of your assumptions, I would love nothing more than for Mauer to be the superstar that most of us assume he already is and lead this team to another division title. I am a born and bled true Twins fan and my allegiances will always be with this team.
That said, I am also a believer of the truth. And the truth is, as told by an objective journalist in Joe C. (and I know I’ve ripped Joe C. for using rosey glasses last week), Mauer’s baserunning play, whether it made a difference or not, was a mistake. SoCalTwinsFan broke it down perfectly above IMO. This isn’t driven by a bias…it’s just a fact.
Conversely, I am alleging that many Twins fans fail to acknowledge the truth when it comes to Mauer due to their biases…i’m not calling anyone out on that (other than one Dick Bremer), but it’s a trend that we’ve seen throughout the Mauer-era. I wouldn’t trade him for any other catcher (psst, although there does happen to be a former Twins catcher who is one-up on Mauer in WS rings and has a very comparable offensive resume here in 2008), but I also won’t pretend the guy is without flaws.
jason,
“I wouldn’t trade him for any other catcher..but I also won’t pretend the guy is without flaws.”
If that is your actual opinion, then we should not be arguing.
He is a very good baseball player with flaws. I am signing off on that note.
Jason one thing I would agree on is Mauers seeming unwillingness to block the plate,as you mentioned above.If this doesn’t get corrected his new nickname should be “matador”.I’ve seen enough out in front of the plate sweep tags to last a lifetime.
That is my opinion and I would rest on that…
we have no argument unless you stand by your assertion that anyone who thinks Mauer made a baserunning mistake last night is clueless.
The Twins aren’t that bad this year. I think the White Sox are just hot now and that CC Sabathia is a great pitcher, he did win the CY Young of the AL last year didn’t he? While he has had an off year this year, he still has about a strikeout an inning, his ERA is what’s killing him, and lack of run support.
With that being said this team isnt that bad. They dont give up, they hit very well with runners in scoring position and they got one of the best closers in the game. The future also looks ok. This Hughes kid at 3b for New Britain is hitting .330’s with like 13hr’s and a lot of rbi’s. Do we finally have our 3b of the future. Plus Ben Revere is hitting .419 at Beloit with 21 steals. Mulvey is pitching decent and Guerra who is probaby one of the youngest players in the High A league that Fort Meyers is in is pitching solid. He just turned 19.
It is one thing to have patience with Young. It is another to say he is doing fine and to give him a pass. I can be patient and hopeful, and still point out that he has one of the worst OPSs in all of MLB for a LFer. Just because we should be patient doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be held accountable for his present performance.
How many ABs did Kelly say someone should have before we judge them? How much has young improved as a hitter and / or fielder during the year? That second question is the one we should be worrying about, as anyone that objectively looked at his AAA and rookie numbers realized, there is still plenty of room for growth….
“that was that, let’s move on to the next game”
Pretty sure Gardy said something like that yesterday in the pregame. SOMEBODY said that during the pregame yesterday.
“Apparently Joe C. “has no clue” then…”
If he’s calling that a baserunning mistake, than I must disagree with Joe C.
As much as I appreciate the work the Strib boys put into the blogs, I don’t always have to take their word as the end all of discussion.
Think of how many times a non-local sportswriter has said something was a certain way and we around here call it out as bunk.
I’m not saying Joe C is always wrong, but in this situaiton I’m going to have to disagree that the Mauer DP was a baserunning mistake. It was horrid luck. Bad baserunning was Gomez getting doubled off and Macri getting picked off.
And yes, I’ve called it Horrid Luck when it’s happened before.
Even if it was somebody other than Mauer getting doubled off.
“As much as I appreciate the work the Strib boys put into the blogs, I don’t always have to take their word as the end all of discussion.”
Really? I’m dang hurt by this revelation! I mean, if that’s the case, I may just hang up my blogging tools and send you all over to Aaron, Seth and the Nicks! 
T–there can be no argument that Joe C. cited the Mauer play as a baserunning mistake…the theme of the gamer was the Twins’ baserunning gaffes…he states at the outset that the Twins made “three baserunning mistakes” and the Mauer play was cited as the third in the series…so you also disagree with SoCalTwinsFan’s analysis and his relaying of what the Indians’ commentators said about the play?
Anyway, moving on…I am all about giving the young (or Young) hitters time as Doug Munson said above…but that doesn’t include Cuddyer and Kubel, who are front-runners on the head scatch list at this point. Cuddyer you just have to hope is going to put a halt to this two-year regression we’ve seen, and Kubel, well, he is what he is, a .240 hitter who will get around 15-20 HR…
Lew Ford hit his second homerun with Hanshin (Japan) today…any bets on who ends up with more HR, Ford or Mauer?
“so you also disagree with SoCalTwinsFan’s analysis and his relaying of what the Indians’ commentators said about the play?”
Yes.
“…but you might be able to avoid a DP on a line drive if you freeze and go back to first. On that play, the secondbaseman was so close to first it probably didn’t matter…”
I saw it the same way. It was such a bang bang play that unless Mauer’s standing on first at the time he’s more likely to be out than safe.
But I’m done with the discussion. I don’t agree with the assessment that it was poor baserunning.
If the Twins turn the play instead of the Indians, we’re talking about how great of heads-up play that was by Casilla.
“so you also disagree with SoCalTwinsFan’s analysis and his relaying of what the Indians’ commentators said about the play?”
Yes.
“…but you might be able to avoid a DP on a line drive if you freeze and go back to first. On that play, the secondbaseman was so close to first it probably didn’t matter…”
I saw it the same way. It was such a bang bang play that unless Mauer’s standing on first at the time he’s more likely to be out than safe.
But I’m done with the discussion. I don’t agree with the assessment that it was poor baserunning.
If the Twins turn the play instead of the Indians, we’re talking about how great of heads-up play that was by Casilla.
“but that doesn’t include Cuddyer and Kubel, who are front-runners on the head scatch list at this point. “
Agreed. You’ve probably noticed me playing with the suggestion that Kubel or Cuddyer (or both depending on what could be brought in) could make interesting trade bait. Though at the end of the day I think they’d likely go with Monroe or Cuddyer before they’d dump Kubel. If only because of their fear for how it would be viewed by the “vocal” members of the fan base.
Such as those that felt the Ortiz trade was a salary dump last year… (Still don’t get that one)
Sorry, that should read “Monroe or Kubel before they dump Cuddyer”
Also, sorry for the DP. Had a WordPress error.
jason,
From socaltwinsfan @ 1:32PM,
“On that play, the secondbaseman was so close to first it probably didn’t matter”
So in his opinion, “it probably didn’t matter”
“but Mauer needs to know before the play where the secondbaseman is playing.”
The problem with that is:
after the pitch is called by the catcher and right before the pitch is delivered, the second baseman (and others) will quickly change position based on the pitch and location that has been called. So Mauer will have no time to check everyone’s position while he is eyeballing the pitcher to prevent being picked off. To call that a “baserunning mistake” is being over-critical.
I agree with a lot of things said in this post - except for the Maddux/Glavine comparison.
Maddux and Glavine were established if not star pitchers in the majors in their first few seasons (when they were 21/22 by the way). None of the current “young” starters for the Twins have accomplished what Maddux/Glavine did in their first few seasons and they are quite a bit older - (Blackburn 26, Slowey 24, Baker 26 and Perkins 25).
I’m not saying our young starters are not promising or will not have good careers - but they have shown nothing to remind me of a young Maddux/Glavine - who were more like Blyleven
I have trouble forgetting the expanded width of the strike zone that Bobby Cox and his catchers garnered for Messrs. Glavine and Maddox during their glory years in Atlanta. Granted , they were both able to hit their spots with great accuracy but, oft times, their spots were three inches off the plate. To me, at least, their records are a little jaded. Just an observation.
Jefe,
Thanks for weighing in. Maddux had a handful of starts in ‘86 and then was 7-17, 4.56 in ‘87 before establishing himself as a stud. Slowey had a partial season in ‘07, should be in the rotation for the rest of ‘08 and could be a mainstay in ‘09.
If he goes 14-10 in ‘09, that would be pretty good. (Maddux was 18-8 in his first excellent season, so I’m not saying that Slowey is on the way to “becoming” Maddux — only that if he gets knocked about this year, the experience could pay dividends for years to come.)
Glavine’s a bit different. He had a few starts in ‘87,went 7-17 in first full year and was 31-37 after three full seasons (7-17, 14-8, 10-12). Then he took off.
My contention is based more on major-league experience than age. In that regard, you’re right saying those pitchers are more like Bert.
Daniel,
Nice recollection. When you can hit spots, the plate can magically widen by a few inches.
Glavine wasn’t good until the umpires decided he had “earned” the right to throw pitches 4 inches off the plate and have them called strikes. I hope MLB never returns to that NBA star treatment philosophy. If it does, I’m done watching it.
Howard, Always thought that it was interesting (and ironic) that the year Livan won the MVP in the NL playoffs vs the Braves, one of the main reasons was the umpire’s (Eric Gregg?) generously large strike zone in the deciding game.
I could be wrong but if I remember neither Glavine or Maddox relied on the soft tossing,corner nibbling that they are now famous for.Thet hit their spots but both had above average stuff in their youth.
If we are still trying to compare Slowey to those two (and thats not fair to Slowey,but some seem to want to)Both, I think had better stuff early in their careers than Slowey currently has.My point earlier was that it seems unlikely tha the fivesome of Baker,Bonser,Perkins,Backburn,and Slowey will all develope into quality Big League pitchers.Since It seems safe to say Boof has aready been shown the exit door,Slowey IMO remains the next likely candidate.He simply lacks what the others have,again IMO.Like I said before if the Twins come out of this with Perkins,Blackburn and Baker as reliable ML starters they will be bucking to odds.
Doug,
Slowey is the youngest of the bunch. Despite what his W-L record say, he actually is pitching better this year than last year. If you take away his last bad start and the start he was hurt, his ERA would be in the 3s. His WHIP has dropped by more than .150 this year from last year.
Compare their career MiLB numbers (IP, ERA, WHIP, W-L)
Slowey: 366.2, 1.94, 0.85, 13-8
Perkins: 367.2, 3.50, 1.27, 12-10
Baker: 486.1, 3.02, 1.09, 22-19
Blackburn: 701.1, 3.68, 1.20, 33-32
Bonser: 884, 3.63, 1.30, 58-46
and for comparison’s sake:
Duensing: 458.2, 3.24, 1.24, 22-14
Liriano: 549.1, 3.51, 1.23, 31-31
Swarzak: 508.1, 3.47, 1.27, 25-18
Garza: 306.1, 2.97, 1.12, 8-10
It is clear that Slowey produced the best results of all and Baker had at least equivalent if not better results than Garza in the minors. I think that Slowey and Baker could be #1-2 starters and the rest #3-5. Not a bad bunch to have, but Slowey has the higher upside of them all…
“To call that a “baserunning mistake” is being over-critical.”
Shhh. If JoeC says so, it must be true.
Unless Jason says otherwise, then it’s obviously a mistake or homerism.
…So really, don’t bother with what JoeC says. Just check with Jason following the game.
Cuddyer is such a stiff…
Is it too early to pinch hit?
Howard,
Have you seen a list of the Twins draft choices that they have signed?
Are they going announce them real time?
Or do we have to wait until June 17, when the Rookie Leagues open?
thryos98- I’ve seen all the numbers on Slowey.I’m just not buying.I respect your opinion and if I’m wrong,like I said it won’t be the first time.But I also wouldn’t be the first time some pitcher put up gaudy minor league stats and never backed it up at the big league level.I just find the veiled references to Slowey and Maddox/Glavine more than a bit funny.Same with the 150-200 ML wins.Again for the Twins sake I hope I’m wrong.
sane,
nobody has singed yet
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2008xteam.php?team=1023
has an up to date list of the singings (bookmark it and keep refreshing it. Signed players appear in bold)
thrylos98,
In past years, that list was not kept up to date. I would guess they have already signed a few draftees. The newspapers show other teams with several signed draft choices, but the Twins are always very secretive. Maybe they have something to hide.
thrylos98,
If you check the Twins website under rosters/draft results, the 2007 draft results are still posted. You can see that by June 12, 2007, the Twins had signed eleven players.
Its doubtful that they haven’t signed a single 2008 draftee as of today. (June 11)
They want to announce a large number in a single press release, I guess.
I have no idea why they do what they do.
“Maybe they have something to hide.”
They’re wrapping up all their draft picks into one giant trade bundle headlined by Juan Rincon.
“They’re wrapping up all their draft picks into one giant trade bundle headlined by Juan Rincon.”
T,
Since draft picks can’t be traded for a year, that bundle contains Juan Rincon and a lot of filler.
But if we can scam the other team, I approve of that trade package.
