If you give a fish a cookie…
Posted on June 25th, 2008 – 12:34 AMBy Howard
…and that fish happens to be a Bottom Feeder and the cookie is a Trevor Hoffman fastball:
You have a 3-1 victory and a seven-game winning steak streak.
On a night when Kevin Slowey pitch six superb and the bullpen wiggled out of trouble, it was Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher who took over the game with home runs on consecutive pitches in the top of the ninth. For Harris, it was a sweet ending to a night of frustration at the plate; Buscher went 2-for-4 and took another step toward full-time status.
It was fun watching Slowey duel Jake Peavy, last year’s Cy Young winner in the NL and a pitcher who changes speeds and throws strikes in dominating style. The Cy Young tour continues tonight against Greg Maddux, with Glen Perkins getting first dibs on getting the win for the Twins.
West Coast baseball can send you to sleep with a smile.
other people are here too
120 Responses to "If you give a fish a cookie…"
when those hr’s happened, i thought of you and your catch phrase. nice work.
man, did anybody read the article about lamb? on twinsbaseball.com? makes me feel sorry for lamb. he’s so much better than how he’s playing. my guess is that when we let him go and he gets picked up on the wire by whatever team, the pressure will be gone and he’ll start hitting again. btw didn’t crain look tense tonight?
When I open up my own restaurant, I’m gonna have the “7-game winning steak” on the menu.
And it’s gonna sell like hotcakes.
Sorry, Howard. I just had to. Go Twins.
Was that the first time either Buscher or Harris had seen Hoffman?
Does on TV count, T?!
With the way Harris and Buscher took that first pitch deep, I’m starting to think even THAT may not be the case.
Maybe it’s a new coaching strategy, don’t tell the new guys who their facing and how good they are. No knowledge, no fear.
Like today. Harris and Buscher are liking sitting in the dugout wondering who this Maddux fellow is and if he’s any good.
i was 99% sure punto would replace harris tonight until that hr, but never know about gardy 7 gm winning streak could be perfect time to shake up lineup.
slowey looks like he can be for real at least against poor hitting teams, time will tell.
morneau needs to sit a couple games and clear his head, 11 hr? he should have in the high teens at least.
nice to hear dick b. say punto was the one that got the 06 team in the race, i was always under the impression it was morneau getting hot and liriano to the starting rot. wrong again nicky was the straw not mvp, batting champ or cy young. dick sure has a man crush on punto.
I dunno, gobble, Doc’s got a 12 game hitting streak going. With or without HRs, I don’t think I sit my hottest hitter.
Yes, gobble, we all pretty much know that Harris saved himself a seat on the bench tonight with one swing of the bat…the stars were aligned…he was 0-for-3, looked bad in a couple of those ABs, just missed a ball on a single in the seventh inning…and LNP was lathering up his bat with pine tar for tomorrow…
But one swing of the bat changed it all…and changed it in more way than one, too…because Brendan Harris showed everyone what he brings to the table that LNP does not. Congrats on your stay of execution, Brendan.
And another night for the bottom feeders is certainly fine by me; remember, in 2007, LNP was your bottom feeder…word never should have got to Mauer that he was leading in All-Star voting.
crikket: i was making a point that so many times on here all we hear is home runs or lack thereof. sometimes it gets a little stupid thinking if we wish enough, guys will turn into hr hitters by some magic trick.
morneau was a hockey player he doesn’t need any time off, but he really should grow a mullet. anyone else notice this weekend they had an interview with him and he has a picture of the hansen brothers in his locker, funny.
“Yes, gobble, we all pretty much know that Harris saved himself a seat on the bench tonight with one swing of the bat…”
Oh yes, because Harris being in the lineup last night even with Punto back is nowhere NEAR a sign that things are changing.
For your sake, I hope the Twins do lose a game here pretty soon…at least then some of these complaints will have some legitmacy.
“morneau needs to sit a couple games and clear his head, 11 hr? he should have in the high teens at least.”
I’m sincerely surprised that nobody’s jumping down Morneau’s throat like they are Mauer’s. I mean, how many cleanup hitters in the league this year are still sputtering around the decade mark for dingers?
LOL gobble, that’s pretty funny.
Well, last night does prove that going deep will win you a game when hits are hard to come by. I was hoping Go-go might get a hold of a pitch and hit a Go-go-ahead HR, but it never happened…
On another subject, our old pal Brian Runge is back in the news again…he should have been reprimanded for the Brendan Harris thing over a week ago, now I’m guessing the New York media will put enough pressure on MLB to do something…that guy is not right.
Sorry T…I don’t get your point there? Are you saying that Harris didn’t save himself from being benched in tonight’s game with that HR? Because if you are, I respectfully disagree.
And I’m loving the seven-game winning streak! There are always issues to debat on these blogs even in the best of times, it rocks! 
And my guy Morneau quietly had another productive night at the plate…Hansen posters, and all!
“now I’m guessing the New York media will put enough pressure on MLB to do something…that guy is not right.”
Another “delay of game” thing…or just the typical powertrip?
“I was looking for a fastball,” Harris said. “I saw he got ahead of the first two guys with fastballs and then went right to the changeup. I was hoping I would put it in play and not have to face the changeup.” - from Joe C.’s game story
That’s what I like about Harris, and why I figured he’d start hitting eventually. The guy goes up to the plate with a plan. Several players on this team should be taking notes. I figured Harris was back on the bench after going 0-3 and just missing Kouzmanoff’s liner in the 7th - Punto probably gets to that ball.
Nice to see the bottom of the lineup produce once in a while. Last year’s team definitely would have lost a game like this.
Assuming Buscher/Casilla stay hot. What happens when Tolbert comes back? Does Lamb, Punto, Harris or Tolbert get the demotion?
“Are you saying that Harris didn’t save himself from being benched in tonight’s game with that HR?”
Yes. I’m saying Harris didn’t save himself because he didn’t need to be saved.
Punto’s back, and Harris still got the start. Gardy also has made several comments in the media regarding Punto going back to the bench, and how he’ll try to get him into the game in late inning defensive situtaions or pinch hitting if need be.
I don’t think the words “Punto” and “start” have been uttered in the same sentence by anybody other than the media and us.
Last night, DnB were also discussing Gardy’s comments regarding Lamb’s (apparently permanent) move to the bench, and how Gardy’s hoping it will help Lamb click again.
At the beginning of the season I figured Punto’d average a start a week. I can still live with that.
But I don’t think Harris is in danger of losing his regular starting spot anytime soon. He was hitting well going into today’s game, and even an 0-3/4 night wasn’t going to change that.
“Does Lamb, Punto, Harris or Tolbert get the demotion?”
Harris will stay with the team all year unless he’s traded for some reason.
And it all depends on when Tolbert gets back. If it’s before the trade deadline he’ll likely be sent down while Smith is looking for ways to move Lamb, Punto, or both to make room for Tolbert and Macri.
Given the fact that they have options, I think that when healthy, Tolbert will be in Rochester until September and pending any moves, when healthy Everett will come up and Buscher will go down.
It has to be over for Lamb at that point, Ben D…or maybe even Punto…drastic moves in either case, I know, but you have to do what’s best for the team.
Having said that, my guess is Matt Tolbert will have to play some rehab games in the minors and maybe even start at AAA (if he still has options left) before being moved up…
Another note…don’t look now, but Doug Mientkiewicz might be having himself a season for the Pirates…he was 2-for-3 last night and now has the average up to .256 on the year (in 129 ABs); he’s been playing 1B, 3B, and RF for the Bucco’s (and his offensive stats are pretty close to our RF)…I hope he keeps it going–I’ve always been a huge fan! He was part of the group the pulled Twins baseball out from the depths of you-know-where and brought it to what we have now.
BTW: Here’s what Jason’s referring to re: Runge.
“After taking consecutive called strikes to begin the fourth, Beltran started talking to plate umpire Brian Runge, who took off his mask and continued the dialogue before he brushed dirt off home plate. Manuel then came out and started arguing. Runge appeared to bump into the manager before throwing him out of the game.”
Yeah, this guy’s a jerk. I’d add a certain word after that, but it’s probably not appropriate.
Ben,
Unless there’s reason to do something different, I suspect Tolbert will remain “injured” until Sept. 1, when rosters are expanded. Same for Adam Everett. They are the Bottom Feeders at the very bottom of the food chain right now.
“when healthy Everett will come up and Buscher will go down.”
I think Everett’s going to be on the “DL” the rest of the way out. They won’t bump Buscher now that he’s continuing to produce.
Everett was brought in for 08 to hold down SS while the Twins looked for something more permanent internally.
They’ve found that in the combination of Tolbert/Harris/Casilla.
Everett has no home here anymore. Even less so than Lamb.
Thanks very much, Houston Astros. Pleasure doing business with you…I think next time we’ll do our shopping elsewhere.
This is Matt Tolbert’s first year in the majors, so he still has all of his options. But I believe - someone correct me if I’m wrong - that rehab assignments don’t count as an option. He will definitely need some time in the minors after being out for so long.
Which brings up an interesting scenario: trading Punto. I could see a team in need of a versatile bench player (esp in the NL) being interested in him. My guess is that the Twins won’t do it unless Tolbert is healthy before the trade deadline, though.
t:
tongue-n-cheek, maybe you could lighten up and not have to nit pik everything said here. you were so sure, like always, when i said ricon would be cut and a rumor had him clear waivers, which happened 2 hours later that i was wrong. you called me out for being an idiot not knowing anything, you again “knew” what was correct as always. it’s only baseball t have some fun with it on occasion!
Tolbert has all three options remaining. He’s not a difference maker at all. He’s missed two months. They’ll have him rehab to the maximum allowed and then send him down.
Trading Punto - Seriously… is there another team in baseball that would want him? I think it would be great to get a low-level Class A type of prospect for him, but I can’t imagine a team wanting to give even that up.
Also, we didn’t do any business with the Houston Astros this offseason. Everett and Lamb were both free agents, so that Astros had nothing to do with it.
g*guy said:
> morneau . . . 11 hr? he should have in the high teens at least.
Morneau does not have an upper cut, the classic power stroke. He sweeps his bat through the zone on a level plane, like he was born to swing the scythe and fell wheat on the great Canadian plains. Fortunately for us, there is baseball. He may hit .330 or .340 when he’s going well, and 30 or 35 HRs in a season because he hits the ball so hard, but he won’t ever challenge real power numbers with that long-in-the-zone swing. And that’s okay, his swing is a thing of beauty and should not be tinkered with.
I think Tolbert is back on the team as soon as he is healthy. Gardy thinks he is part of the Twins future infield. Not so much he is that much of a difference maker.
Seth…I’m well aware of how Everett and Lamb were acquired…I was merely pointing out that the Astros’ organization might not be the best place to look for over-the-hill veterans, based on what little production we got from Everett / Lamb.
Everett you could’ve predicted; Lamb is a disappointment…the dude’s a career .277 hitter and has averaged double-digit HRs in each of the last four years.
LOL I don’t know if I buy all of what Hart said but I will say there are plenty of guys to nit-pick with on this squad other than a guy hitting .309 with 11 HR and 59 RBI…
Mauer can get back to us when his HR total reaches 5 and when Qwest’s “donation” approaches $4,000. Talk about the wrong stat to arbitrarily use as a promotion bit.
I’m not saying Punto will bring a top-level prospect. Think something like the Rockies taking Ortiz for Macri last year - a team making a run with a specific hole to fill. Chances are, the Twins replace Punto with Tolbert next year anyway, so they might as well try to get something in return.
I don’t know if I buy all of what Hart said but I will say there are plenty of guys to nit-pick with on this squad other than a guy hitting .309 with 11 HR and 59 RBI…
Yeah, like Mauer right? Or maybe Kubel?
Hypocrite.
T,
Yesterday, you noted that my commenter categories “regulars/jobless” and “psychopaths” may overlap.
I think a roll call may separate the two categories.
I think the regulars/jobless are still posting during the 7-game win streak.
I think the regulars/psychopaths won’t post because current events are making it so difficult for them to say “I told you so!” They are going remain in seclusion until this “horrible” winning streak is over.
How about a moment of silence for the “Missing in Action”.
“Lamb is a disappointment…the dude’s a career .277 hitter and has averaged double-digit HRs in each of the last four years.”
I think the bigger deal in the Lamb signing was that he hadn’t had a season where he was an everyday player.
So it’s something like Punto. Useful off the bench…but not enough to be a full starter.
Everett is just being Everett. The Twins were going to accept his light bat in exchange for defense. His shoulder negates that, so now he’s got no purpose.
Especially when Harris and Punto are both available. Harris’s bat is starting to make up for any defensive “liability” he may be, and I can live with Punto finishing up his Twins career on the bench (like he started the season).
If it were possible to trade Punto when Tolbert was ready, I’d say go for it. But he’d be a rental, and nothing beyond a bench player…not exactly anything people will be banging down the doors for.
guys my morneau comment was done tongue-n-cheek because of the obsession with homeruns by some people on here.
snepp…nothing hypocritical about my remark, I stand by everything I’ve every written re: Mauer and Kubel (and for those keeping track at home, Kubel is off to an 0-for-4 start on my 3-for-20 prediction for this week…you have to expect he’ll play all three against the Padres with three righties going, correct?). With Morneau, there’s nothing to complain about really, even if some agree with gobble’s tongue-in-cheek critique.
sane…regulars are what keeps this thing going…and 7-game winning streaks, as fun as they are, do come with plenty to talk about both positive and negative; that’s what makes baseball so fun…the day-to-day developments / chatter.
T–yeah, I mean Lamb really wasn’t an everyday player (I think we’ve given him over half the ABs he’s had last year or the year before), so it’s not as though we haven’t given him the chance to succeed. It was just a really bad signing by Bill Smith, it appears…but hey…Hennepin Co. helped them out enough so they can afford a bad signing or two.
Howard i don’t think they needed to see Trevor in person he throws the same junk that Livan does. I’m suprised that all the Twins didn’t homer off of him.
Mauer may never hit with power, but a high OBP, high AVG and outstanding defense could be lived with I believe. Kubel is a streaky hitter who will make his living on pitchers mistakes for his whole career, so if a pitcher gets ahead of him 0-1, 0-2, or 1-2, Kubel will usually not look to good, like Cuddyer.
I’m sorry, I have to call some attention to everyone’s favorite blogger, author of the famous “Free Jason Kubel” campaign, Mr. Baseball himself, Aaron Gleeman.
Glee has taken time off from telling us which obscure webcast or KFAN segment he’ll be on next to introduce something so deep in baseball’s statistical vault, that it can be found only under stacks and stacks of pocket protectors, CD-ROMs, Harry Caray’s DNA, and computer print-outs…the Win Probability Added (WPA).
Seriously, I do appreciate the hardcore fans; I mean no ill-will…this is the Golden Age for Twins fandom, IMO; there was a time when I would be lashed out at for even mentioning the Twins, much less being a fan of them, so it is fun to have a lot of fans out there…but you’re kidding me with this stuff, right? WPA? I know I waste a lot of time writing about the Twins and I love every minute of it, but paragraph after paragraph of analysis on something called the WPA? The WPA? Tell me that’s Al Franken-like satire, right? What Glee is actually doing is ripping baseball bloggers’ overanalysis across the country, correct?
When can we expect FSN North to show each player’s WPA when they step to the plate?
Again, mabye I’m old-fashioned, maybe I’m too simple…but I can’t stop laughing at that. I beg for one of the Twins’ beat writers to ask Gardy after a game if he started a player because of his high WPA!
I’m not regular/jobless and I dont THINK I fall in to the regular/psychopath category (though, I guess, who really DOES see themself that way?). I suppose the jobless thing could happen if I spend too much time here, though.
gobble, sorry.. I should have picke up on the sarcasm of the Morneau comment. It just seemed so much like something someone around here MIGHT seriously opine about.
I guess I just have a soft heart, but I really do feel bad for Lamb. I think the guy just was so anxious to do well when he finally was getting a shot with a team to be a regular, that he’s pressed all year. It sounds to me like he’s a good guy and knows that Buscher is the one who’s stepped up and deserves the 3B job for now. Let’s hope he can produce off the bench occasionally because I don’t think he’s going anywhere.
I also see no way Punto is going anywhere this year. If he hits the way he was before getting hurt and plays good defense in late-game and spot-start situations, I’m perfectly happy having him around. On the chance the Twins do stay in contention late in to the season, I’d rather have guys like him who have been through a late season race than have almost every IF position, both starters and bench players, be newbies to the experience.
JIMMINEY:
Yeah, I sleep better with proven major leaguers on the bench, but I sure wouldn’t mess with this lineup right now. The Soggy Bottom Boys came through again last night, and like Howard said, we were sent to sleep with a smile.
Jason,
You are so right! AG needs to move out of his parent’s basement and stop fantasizing about celebrity women and stats no one cares about.
Hoffman has been terrible this year. Lost 5 games, blew 3 saves and his era is around 5. I think that it is the end of the road for him. It would be interesting to see how the Twins will do with Maddux tonight, since they are a lot of free swingers in the lineup. The only Twin that faced Muddux with any frequence is Lamb, and he is hitting bellow the Mendoza line against him
“West Coast baseball can send you to sleep with a smile”
Lets hope, that by Friday, the Twins can send the Padres to sleep with the fishes.
Kubel is off to an 0-for-4 start on my 3-for-20 prediction for this week…you have to expect he’ll play all three against the Padres with three righties going, correct?
Wouldn’t surprise me if Delmon Young’s lifetime 2-for-3 against Maddux gets him into the lineup tonight. I guess Mauer better start looking over his shoulder too, huh? 0-for-4 with a critical passed ball last night.
When can we expect FSN North to show each player’s WPA when they step to the plate?
They’ve only recently discovered WHIP and BABIP, I’m not holding my breath on anything more sophisticated. WPA isn’t at all obscure. It’s been around in various forms since the 1970s and is a useful, objective way to evaluate player performance. It’s not the be-all end-all as it doesn’t account for defense and has to be adjusted for position, but I don’t think those who use it claim otherwise (least of all Gleeman).
And by the way, Jason Kubel comes up as the fourth-worst position player with 1,000+ plate appearances in Gleeman’s analysis. WPA would seem to help your case against him.
“Lets hope, that by Friday, the Twins can send the Padres to sleep with the fishes.”
I thought the Marlins were doing fairly well this season.
*rimshot*
“And by the way, Jason Kubel comes up as the fourth-worst position player with 1,000+ plate appearances in Gleeman’s analysis. WPA would seem to help your case against him.”
But Joe Mauer came out at the top for all hitters when adjusted for position. You know Jason would never stand for that.
“But Joe Mauer came out at the top for all hitters when adjusted for position. You know Jason would never stand for that.”
Just remember, the only stats that ever matter are those that prove your point.
lol great insight, Peter. Plus Lew Ford was up there on that list, too. Well, say what you want, I still laugh at this “WPA”. And I don’t mean to rip Glee…(well, I do kind of, I guess), he’s a passionate fan, so that part’s cool…
Great back and forth on KFAN right now with La Velle and Tenna B…pretty funny stuff, where La Velle basically totes the company lines re: Mauer, Gomez…then Tenna comes back with “You’re saying Mauer only tried to hit homers the first six weeks…didn’t work very well, did it?”….then LaVelle predicted that Cuddy was going to turn it up down the stretch and basically blamed his struggles on the hand injurie(s)….
It’s possible D Young starts tonight, but I doubt it…if Kubel has another 0-fer tonight, then I think D Young will see the field tomorrow…
“Just remember, the only stats that ever matter are those that prove your point.”
Keep telling yourself that, T. I’m sorry…I don’t care what point it could prove, never in my life will you catch me citing someone’s “WPA”. That’s absurd baseball computer nerdism at it’s core, and everyone knows it. But hey, it’s all about having fun.
Don’t think I was picking you out of the crowd Jason, it’s true of ANYBODY. I do it too.
WPA is a situational-based stat. It is very good to measure situational hitting and relief pitching (i.e. who are the best players on a bench to come up at various points), but I think that it falls short in giving the big picture about a player. For example, If a player hits a home run in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game, he is credited with more WPA points than if he hits a home run in the first inning of a 1-0 game and the pitchers who served those home runs get more negative points in the first case. VORP is a much better tool than WPA to evaluate overall player performance.
This is a ranking of 5 Twins’ batters and pitchers based on WPA with VORP values in parenthesis.
Monroe 0.04 (-1.1)
Lamb -0.58 (-11.9)
Casilla -0.23 (7.7)
Young -1.16 (1.0)
Gomez -1.38 (1.7)
Guerrier 0.60(8.3)
Reyes 0.51(7.6)
Bass 0.22 (-2.9)
Breslow 0.22 (5.1)
Crain -0.21 (6.3)
Arguably, VORP is a better measure for the relative value of the above players
wow, no comment thrylos.
Jason i just read your 11:10 post and your right on the money there. I atrribute all that to way to much stratomatic baseball as a kid.
Liriano is out of the game for Rochester. His line:
5.1P 9H 6R 1BB 3K 2HR 77pitches 55strikes
yep, see you in September, Frankie.
Ouch.
Note to Bill: might want to hold off on putting Livan on the block quite yet.
“Monroe 0.04 (-1.1)”
I would imagine that Monroe’s VORP is significantly skewed due to his recent resignation to the bench and number of PH ABs (including thet 3-run jack against KC)
And that’s too bad about Liriano. Just when he looks to be turning it around. But it’s nice that the pitching staff thus far *knock wood* isn’t missing him too badly (or at least, missing a healthy Liriano)
Pardon, that should be “Monroe’s WPA”
I don’t care what point it could prove, never in my life will you catch me citing someone’s “WPA”. That’s absurd baseball computer nerdism at it’s core, and everyone knows it.
Most elements of managerial strategy are based on an implicit understanding of win probability. If you’ve ever praised or criticized a manager for having a certain pitcher in the game at a particular time, or constructing his lineup a certain way, you’re citing win probability at some level, whether you realize it or not. The WPA statistic is simply a way of quantifying that.
It’s not intended - and Gleeman wasn’t using it - as an evaluation of player talent, just how they’ve performed in the past. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Having a bit of trouble understanding the value of WPA. What’s the point weighting the value of contributions based on game situations when there’s no evidence that there’s any predictive value in situational performance?
WPA:clutchness::ID:creationsim?
Folks,
I’m fine with commenters ripping on my blog here, but it seems to me that if you’re going to rip on Gleeman (or any other blogger), you should do it in the comments of their blog.
That’s a very easy line for me to draw.
To review: trash my blog here; trash other bloggers on their sites.
In Lean Six Sigma class we learned (if anyone would have listened) that you need lots of a million to figure out the failure rate (ppm). I don’t think we have big enough samples in a player’s career or lifetime.
lol
hey Howard, back when you were covering the Twins as a beat writer, did you ever approach T.K. or another manager and say, “hey skip, I notice Roy Smalley’s Win Probability Added has been sky-high the last two seasons, what do you make of that?”
fair, enough. no more trashing bloggers…
actually there is predictive value in situational performance. A big relative to statistics is probability that gets derived by statistic measurements and its purpose is to predict results. The most common moves managers make based on statistics and probability are a. to put in a lefty reliever to face a good lefty batter when the game is close and late b. when a slow runner is on scoring position and the game is close and late they put in a faster pinch runner c. bunt a runner to 3 when there are no outs and d. replace lesser hitters (like pitchers) with pinch hitters late in the game. The above ingrained moves in baseball lore, mathematically increase the probability of a run (decrease for the reliever) scored. Complex formulae can predict the probability of success for a particular player in a particular situation and they are very useful in decision making.
Mudcat, you then measure in pph (parts per hundred) or ppt (parts per thousand) and have to live with the higher standard error.
“hey skip, I notice Roy Smalley’s Win Probability Added has been sky-high the last two seasons, what do you make of that?”
Nope. But how often does Gardy get ripped for putting such-and-such in the lineup or bringing so-and-so out of the bullpen because we commenters feel that the removed player increased (aka “added”) chances (aka “proability”) of the game ending in our favor (aka “win”)
Long story short: WPA appears to be a means of quantifying that “gut feeling” people tend to use when making managerial changes.
well I guess I was just having some fun with what I thought was stretching the use of statistics to the point of high comedy; but as I stated, I will kindly keep my opinions to myself on the issue and move on the bouquets and brickbats of our Minnesota Twins.
Jason,
No, I didn’t. BUT…midway through the 1985 season, I went back through my scorebook and compared Greg Gagne and Smalley’s chances at shortstop per 9 innings, and found that Gagne had more than 1 extra chance per game. (This was before every stat in the world was being crunched by others and used by writers.) I brought this to the attention of the management at the time and was greeted, pretty much, with blank stares. This was before TK was managing.
Gagne’s taking over as the full-time shortstop pretty much coincided with publication of that story.
HOWEVER, TK and I did chat about how the WPA made a big difference to the East Coast’s economy and infrastructure during FDR’s adminstration.
WPA is a misnomer. Does not really deal with probability of a win but with the probability of a run scoring (or avoiding scoring for pitchers) in a situation.
Here is an ironic example: The pitcher who currently leads the Twins in Wins has the lowest WPA (-1.13) of the Twins’ starters
thrlyos98:
I understand the situation that you mentioned and why those moves make sense both statistically and intuitively, but in what way does WPA inform those kinds of decisions?
Maybe I used ’situational’ in the wrong context. Perhaps that was a poor word choice on my part. The way I understand it is, part of the WPA calculation is based on the critical nature of the context in which things happen. A single to lead off the 1st isn’t a critical as a single to lead of a game tied in the top of the 8th for instance, so the former increases a player’s WPA less than the latter. So my question is, abscent evidence that hitting in the clutch exists as a skill, what’s the value in knowing what a player’s WPA is?
I think it’s great to have a reliable method of measuring the critical nature of a game situation. It can help us understand wheter of not clutch performance exists but why are we using WPA as if we know that clutch performance is a skill when all evidence points in the other direction?
HA. Howard that was the best post ever…re: Works Progress Administration.
I can just see T.K. breaking that down with a cigar in his office…that’s the best ever! That might be better than bottom feeders!
I don’t think there’s anything ironic about Senior Smoke Free’s negative WPA. It’s just another quantification (allbet a poor one) of how lucky he’s been.
Also, all your situation examples are managerial moves. Does Gardy have a WPA number, too?
it’s funny how the game survived for a 100 yrs without all these fancy stats. how did the managers get through a game?
What kind of crappy blog doesn’t allow trashing of other crappy blogs!?
All these WPAs and VORPs are giving me a headache.
If you can’t run any better blog than this, today, Howard, I’m just going to have to… get back to work?
Never mind.
“Does Gardy have a WPA number, too?”
How would that be determined? Since his managerial moves reach anywhere from the lineup he assembles, to the pitchers he brings in…sometimes right down to the specific pitch thrown.
Heck, Gardy calls for the bunt…the h&r…the steal. And then in some cases the runners ignore his decisions and do something else (swing away on 3-0, run through a stop sign, miss with the changeup)
“HOWEVER, TK and I did chat about how the WPA made a big difference to the East Coast’s economy and infrastructure during FDR’s adminstration.”
*rimshot*
And a well-deserved one at that.
Pretty well I think. Most of this stuff verifies or largely supports huge swaths of conventional wisdom. Not 100% but big chunks.
Still pitchers get too much credit/blame for stuff that’s out of their control. To much bunting, to much stealing, not enough walking, to much punting, no many field goals, to much sitting with foul trouble.
But, who wants to talk about what’s been going right for 100 years. That’s booring and it doesn’t add any value.
Jim Crikket & T;
Soon, with ALL these designer statistics, there will be NO need for players. Just computers out in the field. Probably not be a particularly interesting game to watch…UNLESS, they put on one heck of a laser light show.
Regards,
I think WPA is a pretty fair overall statement of a player’s worth. Perhaps some guys aren’t fairly treated, but on the whole, it’s a pretty fair measure.
T.K.: The New Deal was so overrated…when will the Democrats understand that FDR was in a very unique circumstance and you can’t just drum up these government programs to run the country…we need limited government today, I tell you…
Howard: But T.K., if we don’t do something fast, the recession we’re in now is going to plummet into an all-out depression all throughout the 90s…Americans will be left homeless, jobless, or worse…the WPA will turn everything around!
T.K: (puffs cigar)…ahh, maybe you’re right, I really should look more into the WPA and see if it can help us out…I think Mr. Puckett has done okay the last few weeks, anyway…
WPA prediction: By the end of the year, Kubel will be in positive territory for 2008, if not his career.
I guess it must be because WPA is a catchier name than VORP. yeash.
WPA:clutch::ID:creationism
You can’t polish a turd.
That FDR bit was hilarious.
“Probably not be a particularly interesting game to watch…”
A buddy of mine introduced me to MVP Baseball 05 (I say 05 because it was the last year of the series and was the first year that Mauer was available…found this out the hardway when I picked up 04 and was stuck with BLANCO! as my catcher).
He took the 04 Twins (rosters are based off of the previous season), and made a few trades (keeping the “equal trade” and “salary enabled” settings to “on”) to tweak things (for example: Peavy was now in the rotation)
We then (on a lark) simulated a full 162 game season. It took a while, but when it was finished, he had managed to create a 130+ win team.
Long story short, we have the tech already to do simulated seasons. The only thing we’d have to worry about is hackers. 
And simulations that make it possible to construct 130 win teams.
I’ll add that it takes roughly 3-4 hours to simulate a full season, as when you tell the game to sim…it sims EVERY SINGLE GAME PLAYED BY EVERY TEAM.
It’s insane. You can even go back over boxscores and read pitcher substitutions, pinch hitters and runners….FOR EVERY SINGLE TEAM.
they wouldn’t need players if they had cheerleaders with big boobs!
lets start a campaign to get hooters girls/dancers/cheerleaders in the metrodome!!!
“And simulations that make it possible to construct 130 win teams.”
I’ll also add that even once we turned the rules off and started playing God with the teams (IE: A-Rod, Bonds, Johnson, Peavy, Santana, Rivera, Giambi, etc)…keep in mind this is 04/05…we still couldn’t come close to the 130 win team.
Which is weird, considering we were enjoying such junk trade as “Romero + White for “A-Rod”…essentially pilaging the top teams of their best talent.
My one regret was never trying to build the WORST team and shooting for the futility record.
Does T have a job?
Just wondering.
T, maybe you proved somthing that someone should mention to the Yankees… that you can’t just assemble all the “best players” and run away with the championship every year.
On the other hand, I suspect they already know that now.
Kay,
“Does T have a job?
Just wondering.”
I just had a scary thought.
What if T does have a job and I am responsible for it getting completed.
Holy crap!
here’s an outside take:
http://victoriatimes.blogspot.com/2008/06/third-opinion.html
I wrote that I had seen the Red Wings this past weekend with Humber pitching. Today I went down to Louisville today and saw most of the Red Wings game with the Bats. Liriano pitched, and I thought he looked good although the boxscore will be misleading.
The boxscore showed 3 Red Wing errors (by when I left in the 8th inning), but I would have given the Red Wings a couple more.
The boxscore will show that Liriano gave up a two-run triple in the middle innings. In reality, there were runners on 1st and 2nd, the Bats hit a moderate line drive right at Tommy Watkins in left — he ran in but realized that it was going over his head, he turned and fell on his face resulting in a “two run triple.” This was followed by a soft ground ball hit up the middle to Macri (playing 2nd), the ball hit the bag and went over his head resulting in another run. Liriano’s body language looked like: “what else can go wrong”.
His fastball was in the 91-93 range, off-speed in the 81 range. In general, the Bats hitters were off balance facing him — hit a lot of ground balls or just got a piece of the ball. He seemed to be mixing in slider and change-up pretty well, and he had the hitters off balance. But a lot of poor fielding and bad breaks.
Liriano’s delivery is not as violent as I remember, looks really good. He’s probably not ready but he’s coming along.
Span continues to look really good, as does Plouffe.
Macri was at second and had one error on the books (an easy ground ball between his legs) and looked very uncomfortable. He also threw a relay into the Bats dugout resulting in another run, but he didn’t get an error for some reason.
Great insight, Steve. Goes to show a boxscore won’t tell you everything….that said, I still think Frankie won’t be joining us until well after the All-Star break, assuming our current starters continue to make progress.
Dogs or Dawgs in the championship game tonight? What do ya think?
According to my math, Liriano will achieve super-2 status and be eligible for arbitration if he’s recalled before July 17 and stays in the bigs for the rest of the year. Barring injury or total implosion, we won’t see him before then.
And really, there’s no reason to rush. The four young guys are doing fine and Livan is who we thought he was.
Peter,
That jives anyway since the Twins have said they won’t call him up until at least the AS Break. This year the AS Break is July 14-16.
SweetOne… convenient how that works out, isn’t it?
Jared… Dogs
Steve… thanks for the info on Liriano’s day. That’s twice in a row, though, that we’ve heard he “looked better than the box score would indicate.” Not sure how many times it takes before it’s considered a pattern or trend.
gobble… I like Tim Dierkes’ site and it is absolutely a “must read” in July and during the height of the off-season. But from his comments, I’d say he doesn’t really follow the Twins very closely. “Starting pitching has been lousy”? Who besides Boof (and occasionally, Livan) has been awful? “Tons of easy outs”? guess he hasn’t been reading Section 220 lately. Half of the guys he says are a drain on the team’s offense aren’t even part of the team’s offense at this point. Does anyone REALLY think that the answer is to go out and trade for new outfielders… especially when it appears he suggests Smith should trade some of the young pitching? Any OF would obviously be a rental and Smith should trade young pitching for a rental OF or two? No thanks.
I hope it’s not considered trashing another blog, but I saw very little in his comments of any value in this case. Third opinions aren’t always the best opinions.
crikett agreed but interesting to read an outside point of view.
the talk of dumping lamb, boof and monroe is fine and i’m for it but they need to get something better to replace them with. just getting rid of them without a better option is just a waste of money and serves no purpose. don’t want uncle carl to have to go on food stamps!
Exactly. It doesn’t take WPA and VORP to know who’s expendable on this team. But that doesn’t mean you snap your fingers and some other team hands you someone that’s an improvement. Every team has underperformers and overperformers… they won’t give you an overperformer for one of your underperformers.
There were suggestions over there that the Twins should go get Brian Roberts. Hell yeah! Do it! I’m sure our old buddy MacPhail will just hand him over in return for Lamb or Everett and maybe a low-A prospect, right?
I’m not saying Smith should take his phone off the hook between now and the trade deadline. If something interesting comes along that helps the team address a need this year and in the future, without creating a potential new gap next season and beyond… fine.
But this is not the year to go off the deep end with mid-season deals, imo.
you may have to include punto to get roberts.
JimCrikket,
I agree 100%. The last thing this team needs is to bring in another couple of over the hill players. I think that the team has settled down and its playing well. The key would be to allow the current lineup to gel (especially the infield) and don’t get crazy with substitutions and revolving door positions to give people equal playing time. Yes, things could always be better, but it does not make sense to trade prospects for veterans. If the Twins find a younger player who can help today and tomorrow, that would be fine but there are not many of them available…
Not a huge trade guy….last mid-season trade that meant anything was Shannon Stewart and that seems like ages ago…so we can (and will, I suppose) speculate, but I wouldn’t get too wound up…
As for tonight….against another future HOF’er….any objections?
Gomez
Casilla
Mauer
Morneau
Cuddyer
Kubel
Harris
Buscher
Baker
Wait…that’s substantially last night’s lineup, right??? Hmmm…well…let’s go for 8! Go bottom feeders!!! (Although perhaps if top-feeder Joe Mauer has that first inning RBI crack again tonight, he may want to consider bumping Qwest’s total to $3,000).
Jason,
Looks good except for the #9 spot. I’d go with Perkins tonight and Baker tomorrow.
HA I suppose….Baker’s a better hitter, though.
Jim Crikket,
I’m in the category of bringing up the ‘Utes, let them play and learn. If we contend, great, if not, no big deal (nobody really expected this team to contend anyway).
From my expectations, I’m pleasantly surprised. 2 weeks from now, who knows.
Regards,
in reading tim dierkes thoughts on the twins, i was very disappointed. it almost sounded like someone who doesnt watch the twins but reads boxscores or trys to keep in touch from afar…i think he was a little off in judging our pitching and hitting, but thats ok, who cares …..what i was interested in was the move to get b roberts….that one is a little interesting, but i wonder if he would give us any more at 2nd than casilla , and then what happens to casilla when you ship him to short…does it mess his head up, start him thinking and take him off his game?? i would almost be inclined to leave the infield alone and let gardy play mix and match, as i think we have enough good players there to cover it…i would like to see the f.o. make some play to strengthen the outfield, as i really think its time to sit gomez or send him to AAA….span should be up here to spot start for all of them and maybe find someone to replace monroe, as we have just wrecked him by not getting him any playing time or at bats….and thats too bad, because i think with steady work, mr monroe would have done some real damage, but what the hell do i know….so my suggestions to the f.o. would be to bring up span, trade for a veteran of with power, find a veteran starting pitcher, and as always keep an eye out for a bullpen stud…..if they do all these things, they may just win this division…wouldnt that be sweet…jmho
Re: Brian Roberts, two words:
Tom Herr
On the roster: Span would be a better fourth outfielder than Monroe. He would be pretty good in any of the three positions, is a LH bat and a legit CF. He could pinch run if the team could use a steal. The obvious choice would be to unload or release Monroe. Then who would be a power bat off the bench and RH DH?
Macri is obviously a better fit with the Twins than the currently-demoted Lamb. However, it would be next to improssible to move Lamb and I am not sold on any infielder that doesn’t wear #33.
Punto is the best utility man available right now. He brings skills to the table that the Twins like, but he isn’t an everyday player. When Tolbert is ready, he rehabs and if there still isn’t room, he would be sent to Rochester.
I am not ready to rule the Everett signing a bust. He has had a half season ruined by injury. He hasn’t hit, but when he played, no one else did either. I don’t know if the arm injury is the only reason for less than stellar defense, but if it is, and he can recover completely, then Everett would be the Twins best SS.
You don’t always need to make big moves to make improvements. In the past month we claimed Breslow off waivers from Cleveland, and designated Rincon for assignment. In 28 IP this season Rincon gave up 21 runs, 19 of them earned. In 8.1 IP this season for the Twins, Breslow has given up 0 runs (he’s also left-handed). Small moves, but so far they appear to be paying off.
“Does T have a job?
Just wondering.”
Considering T is nothing more than an amalgam of all things you hate about the Twins (Punto, Gardy, Vavra, FO)…I am all knowing and ever present. Okay, maybe I lied about that first one.
I am T-gion.
Have to agree with Twayn. We play a team 13 games under five hundred tonight that have two former Cy Youngers that they got somehow, don’t know how. Don’t care.
Mudcat,
Did you see that the Padre’s have a Jim “Mudcat” Grant fan group?
Regards,
Mudcut,
one of them (Peavy) is homegrown. The other one (Maddux) got there in his twilight years, because its his home town (similar with the Twins signing Molitor and Winfield)
Right, thrylos. Peavy drafted by Pads in ‘99. This is interesting:
Former big league pitcher Jim “Mudcat” Grant is trying to drum up interest in forming a group he would call “12 Black Aces,” honoring the dozen African-American pitchers who have won 20 games in a season. Trivia question: Can you name the 11 other “Aces”?
Looks like everyone is stumped. Howard, do ya know who the “Twelve Black Aces” are? Here’s a hint:
Trivia answer: Bob Gibson, Ferguson Jenkins, Earl Wilson, Vida Blue, Doc Gooden, Al Downing, Sad Sam Jones, Don Newcombe, Mike Norris, J.R. Richard, and Dave Stewart.
Wouldn’t mind having that pitching staff!
Harris just hit another one out, looks like he wants to stay in the lineup…
I bet the farm —HE WHAT!?!
