The season’s most painful defeat
Posted on July 9th, 2008 – 8:01 AMBy Howard
So whaddya think of Brian Bass now?
OK, that’s a rhetorical question. So, like, don’t answer it.
I’m as irked by Tuesday’s painful defeat as I was accepting of Monday’s 1-0 thriller.
I’m more of a Gardenhire guy than many people, but the Twins didn’t commit to much of anything in the late innings last night — and that bothers me. The bullpen management was tentative in the eighth and in the ninth the Twins violated the baseball axiom of playing for a win on the road (not a tie) after Nick Punto led off the inning with a double, capping an incredible battle with Jonathan Papelbon.
Here’s my deal: If Gardy’s not going to use Joe Nathan in the eighth inning, then he needs to be more aggressive about handling his late-game match-ups, especially when he has a well-rested bullpen at his call.
What does that mean here? Well, if he’s going to yank Reyes after the Jacoby Ellsbury double to lead off the eighth (the right call), then he should have been thinking match-ups and/or quick hooks for the rest of the inning, too.
That could have played out by making use of lefty Craig Breslow to face left-batting JD Drew — after using Guerrier/Crain/Bass against Dustin Pedroia — and then bringing in another of the righties to face the Ramirez/Lowell/Youkilis threesome.
If Gardy’s not going to go batter-by-batter, then you’ve gotta pull Guerrier for Crain after the Ramirez home run or, for darn sure, after the Youkilis double. (How much more did Guerrier have to do to show that he didn’t have it last night?) By then, switch-hitting Coco Crisp and light-hitting Alex Cora were the only remaining players on the Boston bench. I’d much rather have Crain face Cash than Breslow (probably) face Crisp, but I’d prefer either of those match-ups to a gasping Guerrier staying on the mound.
When you have a 12-man pitching staff and you’re playing a big game after a tough loss, it doesn’t seem out of line to expect the manager of the scrappy visiting team to manage his butt off. Guerrier has come through enough times that he’s not going to be shaken by Gardy going out in mid-rally and saying, “Gimme the ball, buddy. It’s just not there tonight.”
I remember games in 2006 when Gardy maneuvered his a$$ off to get the best match-ups, sometimes as early as the fifth or sixth inning. You can go to baseball-reference.com and scroll through box scores from that season to find ‘em. Keeping Guerrier in under the circumstances seemed awfully passive by comparison.
By the way, I’m intentionally not addressing the issue of using Nathan in the eighth — bringing him in to face Ramirez with one out, one runner on and a two-run lead. My opinion is that Nathan should almost invariably be saved for the ninth inning and that exceptions — for the good of his season-long effectiveness — should be few and far between.
If I’m Gardy, last night would have been one of those few-and-far betweens.
(Well, I guess I just addressed the issue.)
If the aggressive managing failed, I would have rather listened to Gardy say that he tried just about everything to protect the lead in a big game against a tough team than hear him say that Guerrier threw “terrible” pitches to Ramirez and Cash In contrast, I liked the move that Terry Francona, the Boston manager, made when he sent up pinch-hitter Sean Casey in the bottom of the seventh — with the specific intent of getting Nick Blackburn, the Twins starter, out of the game. “We wanted to kind of force the issue,” he said in JoeC’s story.
Then, in the ninth, after Punto somehow managed to crank that bloop double off Papelbon, I would have been looking to win. That would have meant Span swinging away instead of bunting. If he doesn’t come through, either with a hit or finding some other way to advance the runner, I’m just as good with Kubel and Casilla taking their hacks with Punto on second.
I mean, if the Twins had tied the score, it wasn’t like Nathan was coming in for the bottom of the ninth — based on conventional wisdom and the way Gardy’s used him.
So half measures and Guerrier’s lack of effectiveness led to the most painful loss of the season.
It’s a good time for a day game. Before too long, we’ll have a whole new set of things to chew through.
other people are here too
68 Responses to "The season’s most painful defeat"
Giving away outs in the 9th inning of a game you trail with a runner in scoring position is bad baseball, always has been - always will be.
Land of 10,000 Second-Guessers
Look, the only spot I’m going to kick and scream about in the managing the last two nights is the failure to bring in your big gun to get a few more outs. I know this isn’t Gardy’s style, but in the past, there has always been an effective set-up man to go with Nathan. Based on the last two days (combined with last Monday versus Detroit), it’s becoming clear that our bullpen cannot be counted on to shore up big games.
As for last night, you cannot allow a 5-2 lead in the eighth inning slip away. You just can’t do it. You have to bring Nathan in at the first sign of trouble. This isn’t a second-guess, this is a first guess. Yipping away a 5-2 eighth inning lead against a team like Boston is quite painful; it brings back memories of Juan Rincon’s legacy–serving up a 3-run jack to Ruben Sierra in the playoffs.
If Gardy insists on not stretching his $12 million closer more than three outs, than Bill Smith needs to find us a lights-out set up man, or we can forget about contending for a playoff spot.
“Giving away outs in the 9th inning of a game you trail with a runner in scoring position is bad baseball, always has been - always will be.”
How’s that? In fact, that might be the only place that using a sacrifice bunt might be beneficial. You need to score 1 run. Worry about the second run later.
I’m going to back Gardy up on having Span bunt in the ninth.
We’re talking about situational baseball, here. Papelbon is throwing gas…do you really like anyone–much less Denard Span (who hasn’t seen anything like the stuff Papelbon was gasing) to come up with a hit there?
Personally, I think that was a great use of Span’s at-bat in the ninth…bunt the runner over and take your chances on a sac fly / wild pitch / ground ball getting through a drawn-in infield. I hear what Howard is saying about going for the win (a similar argument was made by Dan Gladden on the radio), but when you’re talking about a guy throwing that much heat, I think the best chance you have is to manufacture that run, hope you get the game into extras, and then try to beat one of their other pitchers.
Regardless, it’s still sad that Boston got their closer into the game with the lead and for the second straight night, ours remained planted in the bullpen.
Punto’s at-bat in the 9th was great. He fought off over 10 95-97 mph fastballs and hung in there for a double. With Papelbon throwing nothing but fastballs to Punto I would have had Span swing away instead of bunt. Obviously Papelbon didn’t want to throw any of his other pitches. Span more than likely would have seen a straight fastball that he could drive.
Gardy has lost his nerve this year he is managing this team like they are still “rebuiding” instead of the competitive team they have proven most of us wrong to be.. He throws Bass (a rookie) into the pressure cooker against one of the best lineup in MLB on Monday when vets with better stuff (Crain,Guerrier I thought) should have been put in
then last night he lets Guerrier blow the game meanwhile Nathan his highest paid player that is a luxury on a previously thought “rebuilding” team sits for 2 straight nights.. Gardy has clearly regressed in my book
giving that out away against a very good closer makes no sense. great at bat by punto, i don’t think he’s an everyday player but he has been good the last few days.
nathan does need to be used, on occasion, in the 8th. as i said last week when we are playing teams for playoff spots and a loss costs 2gms in the standings.
he will be used today in the 8th “to get some work” with a day off tomorrow.
Gobble, there is no day off tomorrow. Twins play the Tigers at noon. Unless you mean a “Nathan day off”.
Yesterday the blogosphere was screaming for Kubel and Guerrier. Well, we got em. Maybe Pedrosia, Manny, and Papelbaum are just real good?
The last two nights look like a cry for help. Gardy misused Rincon a couple times earlier this year to make a point, perhaps he’s doing it again.
Are the Twins hiding an injury with Breslow? He hasn’t pitched in over a week and the past two nights have presented perfect situations for him.
Once again, we cough up the game in the late innings with our All-Star closer nowhere to be found.
seems like every day is a day off for nathan.
2 great starts livan hasn’t been good on the road sox 8-1 today, nathan gets 8th for some work.
1. span cf
2. casilla 2b
3. mauer c
4. morneau 1b
5. kubal rf
6. young lf
7. lamb dh
8. buscher 3b
9. nicky ss
gomez needs a day off, very good rh pitcher use all the lefties. livan gets hammered today, feel free to mock me later.
Yesterday the blogosphere was screaming for Kubel and Guerrier.
Who was screaming for Guerrier? He pitched in three straight games over the weekend and was clearly still gassed from the experience.
Kubel had been 2 - 4 off of Paps until that epic AB last night even Mauer loses to the pitcher 7 out of 10 times
It’s dangerous to overreact to a couple of tough losses when you take it within the context of what the Twins have done lately.
However, amidst all the talk about acquiring an infielder at the trade deadline, I haven’t heard anything concerning the Twins most glaring need–a shut-down 8th inning guy.
With the loss of Neshak we’re left with Crain and Guerrier and they just aren’t the dominant strike-out-type pitcher that we need to get to Nathan.
We have a young team with some good prospects to follow–there’s got to be a way to bolster the bullpen and not have to give up too much to do it.
The 8th inning crew has enough to get by the Clevelands and poor sisters of the National League, but in the big games versus Boston, White Sox, Rays, Yanks, etc.–we need a more dominating presence out there.
And that’s not just based on the last two games, but on what’s happened all season.
Oh and by the way, I’ve nearly lost my ability to stay upright with the sight of positive posts about Punto! Is everybody OK?
I am glad that I read in Joe C’s article that the Twins are debating on whether they should try and trade for Beltre. I am really hoping the Twins pick him up. Beltre could hit 5th or 4th after Morneau, so Justin could get more pitches down the plate. A Beltre signing would drastically help Morneau, and help this entire power laden lineup.
I’m almost convinced that Gardy fell asleep in the dugout while Guerrier was struggling. I just cannot, for the life of me, figure out what good it did to keep him in the game.
Also, I have to comment on your comment of Nathan being saved for the ninth, for the “good of his season-long effectiveness.” Nathan has never worn down at the end of a season before. Like you, I have no problem with Gardy asking Nathan to record a five-out save or a three-out save. I would just do it more regularly with the poor bullpen that we currently have.
I agree with Plunkton as well. Punto’s at bat in the ninth was great, could it have been his best ever?
Gardy simply got out-managed in these two games. When you lose one run games it is hard to blame anything but your manager. Francona used everything he possibly could to his advantage, and Gardy simply did not.
I would recommend him waking up in the dugout, for starters. Great job today, Howard!
If Nathan was going to be brought in, it would’ve had to be before a tie game (otherwise you lose him if/when the Twins are able to take the lead)
Perhaps Smith saying “This team doesn’t have a glaring need” was too testing of the Baseball Gods humor.
Somebody brought up needing an 8th inning guy (proven guy) along with a 3B. This series could very well send the message the Twins need. I wouldn’t be surprised if after the last few days they’ve hit the market and are now looking.
I will admit that last night I was scratching my head over Punto being left in (though I admit the Twins didnt’ have many IF options available to cover off the bench)
Punto came through with the double. Span could swing away, but for Chrisakes Kubel can’t hit a sac-fly?
wonder if Gardy and Carol brought those brooms back to the hardware store yet?
T, why isn’t Nathan capable of recording a five-out save? Or were you being sarcastic?
smith has said we don’t need any help, not sure which team he has been watching but beating up the nl teams, indians and tigers doesn’t mean the team is playoff ready.
imo the guys not helping like lamb and boof along with monroe need to be replaced with better options. don’t know who that would be (beltre, atkins, kouzmanoff maybe if available), don’t think it’ll happen and we’ll stand pat.
BrentG hit it exactly…either upgrade the bullpen or forget about contending. Bullpen is the second most important component to a playoff baseball team behind starting pitching.
Think about it…for all the hoopla in the All-Star game over sluggers and closers, if not for guys like Rincon, Reyes, Crain, Neshek, etc…we don’t get to the playoffs in ‘03, ‘04, or ‘06.
Right now, our bullpen is not the caliber of a playoff baseball team. This is sad, considering the starting pitching seems to be, and we’re scoring enough runs. Get something done, Bill Smith. This bully is good enough against the junk teams, but it’s not ready for primetime, obviously.
Oh, and I hate to repeat myself, but with that thought in mind, do us a favor Gardy and go to the one member of the bully who is ready for primetime when you have a chance to win a big road game against a team like Boston. Heck, we’ve got a four-game break coming up for these boys…do not hesitate to use Nathan in the 8th against Detroit if need be, either. They also have a lineup that will be a bit more imposing in the late innings than Cleveland or San Diego.
Nathan is on pace for a career-low 66 innings this year per Mr. Gleeman’s post this morning. I would much rather see him in a critical non-save situation than when we’re up by five runs just because he needs to get work in, which happens all too often.
“At the same time, you don’t want to tinker too much with something that’s not broken.” - Bill Smith
Are we now ready to admit that the bullpen is broken?
does anyone think beltre could be had and what the price would be?
he’s another dominican guy could be good for casilla and gomez to have another country man.
bat him behind morneau in front of kubal would be nice. if span continues to look good where does cuddy fit in?
PETE:
I missed the note about “thinking of getting Beltre”. That would be fine by me. But your idea is better.
Just out of curiousity on the Nathan thing: (stats are games, sv/svo, ip)
F. Rodriguez: 41, 35/37, 38.1
J. Papelbon: 40, 27/31, 39.2
G. Sherill: 41, 27/32, 38.2
J. Nathan: 37, 25/27, 36.2
B. Wilson: 36, 24/26, 35.0
M. Rivera: 37, 23/23, 40.1
J. Soria: 37, 23/25, 40.0
With the exception of Soria and Rivera, there isn’t a single closer on there averaging more than one inning per appearance.
If we go by that, then we can estimate the number of “non save innings” for guys averaging an inning an appearance.
Rivera: 17
Soria: 15
Nathan: 9.2
Wilson: 9.0
Papel: 8.2
Sherill: 6.2
F-Rod: 1.1
Take those what you will, but it looks like while Nathan has the fewest innings worked out of the top 7 closers, he’s one of the top when you consider innings that weren’t him doing his job (closing)
Yes, Rivera is an elite closer and yes he has made a history of pitching more than one inning, but at the same time…he’s what you call an “exception”.
You can’t expect every top closer to be a Mariano Rivera. Just like you can’t expect every top pitcher to be a Sandy Koufax.
Jason - right on.
This, for me, was a very disheartening loss. However, the Twins have played just about even with one of the best teams in baseball.
If you look at the Red Sox record at Fenway this year, they just don’t lose at home. The Sox have had two very close calls, at home, while playing against a team that was picked for dead last in the Central.
Everyone, we knew we’d have some heartaches with this team and no one expected the Twins to come close to competing with a high payroll team like the Red Sox.
Think about it, the Twins took 2 out of 3 at home from the Red Sox. They are now 2 and 3 against the Sox. Just how high are our expectations when we really think the Twins have an excellent chance of winning at Fenway? What does this tell you about the Twins? Could it be, gasp, that the Twins are actually a very good team?
I’m expecting the Twins to take it out on Detroit and crush them.
I also expect the Twins to look seriously for a proven setup man
Putting that game behind me, interesting pitching matchup today. Two ex “Miami” Marlins facing each other. They pitched for the Marlins in the World Series years, which is another interesting subject. Both World Championships were won when the Marlins were Wild Cards. We don’t seem to be gaining on Chicago because KC chokes, so the Wild Card spot is a good target. And it would really help to knock off the other Wild Card contender today.
It would be interesting to see which closers are occasionally asked to get four- or five-out saves and how often they are called on to do it.
And, are these guys asked to do it because they’ve proven themselves capable, or because that happens to be the philosophy of the manager?
You have to think Cuddyer is going to get his job back when he’s healthy, but you also have to wonder how long the Twins would suffer through a slow re-start. Based on his previous contributions, I would have said Cuddyer is one of those veteran guys who you write down on the lineup card and forget about — even if at the end of the year his numbers don’t come close to matching the Twins’ expectations. But now I’m not so sure. If he comes back and stinks it up for two weeks, he’d almost have to sit, wouldn’t he?
Come back like a lamb, sit next to Lamb.
“T” answered my questions before I asked them on the relievers. Thank you.
Think about it, the Twins took 2 out of 3 at home from the Red Sox. They are now 2 and 3 against the Sox.
Blake, actually the Twins took 3 of 4 earlier in the season at the dome and the Red Sox have only evened the season series with their two wins at home this week.
(We now return to the regularly-scheduled second-guessing)
I couldn’t agree with you more Howard. I could not believe when he left the clearly floundering Guerrier out there to flounder the game away. He didn’t have it last night, was Gardenhire the ONLY person who could not see this?!? And giving away an out in the 9th??? LNP had a nice at bat, but he should not have been batting in the 9th with the team down by 1 - that was yet another head scratcher. So glad Nathan is well rested sitting on the bench.
I said to my viewing mate last night, “just watch, Gardy will place then entire blame on the bullpen (ie., throw Guerrier under the bus) while not excepting any responsibility for his bone-headed management, or lack thereof, moves.” Yep.
The Twins do not have the dominant 8th inning relievers like in past seasons. We need to either shore up the bullpen, or demand our starters go deeper into games. I think our starters are good enough. The mentality needs to change with the change in the relief corps.
Well, to be fair Kay, no matter what you think of Gardy’s moves last night, Guerrier failed badly in his latest attempt to prove that he is this club’s set up man. I see no fault in Gardy expressing disappointment with him over that.
After all, Guerrier himself would have much rather heard what the manager said than something along the lines of “I take full responsibility…I never should’ve had Matty in that situation last night…he was totally overmatched…I should’ve yanked him for Nathan at the first sign of trouble”
I just eyeballed Nathan’s 2008 game logs and counted ten no-decisions. Of those, four were games that the Twins won by four or more runs and one was the 10-0 loss at Texas in April.
The fact that 13.8% of Nathan’s innings in 2008 have come with a run differential > 4 suggests that he’s under-used, not over-used. He’s pitching in games that are all but won (or lost) in order to stay sharp. It’ll never work out perfectly but I’d like to see some of those innings spent on situations where the outcome is still in question.
the trade rumor sites don’t have much available for set-up guys and a lot of teams needing help in that area. when you consider we have a “good” bullpen and lot of teams are worse off than we are.
how about getting in on the a’s fire sale and houston street, cost to much?
we have several pitching prospects that will be out of options and could be lost next winter anyway, why not get something for them?
Is it just me or do more fans think its time to do something w/ Young? Why not put Cuddy back in right when he comes off the D.L. and move Span to left? Then maybe bring in Young for spot duty? He clearly isnt an everyday fielder and his at bats could be matched at this point by Span!
Why not bring up Liriano as a bullpen guy (ala Santana early in his career)?
Just a thought…our bully needs help!
Jason,
I would not expect Gardy to take full responsibility either, but it was plainly, clearly obvious that Guerrier just didn’t have it last night. Leaving him after the double was just not smart.
Franorama.. thanks for the correction. Wow, that makes my thesis even better.
What a fun season, though.
I tend to think Gardy tries not to over manage. How hard is it on younger players when they’re suddenly lifted for someone else? If this team collectively had a few more years under its belt, you might see Grady make more moves. As it is, I think Gardy is trying to win without creating a “looking over the shoulder, wondering if the manager has confidence in me” problem.
There are a lot of young players on the team that are still learning the subtleties of baseball.
Until we get some bullpen help (which is what the Twins need to pursue before the deadline) I think it’s imperative to use Nathan earlier in ballgames. A lot of clubs go to their closer early so I don’t see what the big deal about that is.
ChrisD: As someone else posted, I think Nathan will explode into a million pieces if he pitches anything but the 9th inning… at least that’s what Gardy would have us believe!
While there will be plenty of teams out looking for a flashy bat or (cubs/brewers already got theirs) starting pitching, even the Twins should be able to find a good reliever. Just for once, especially with the Twins seemingly needing very little to get over the hump, it would be nice if they would make a move that matters.
Jason, good thought on Liriano. That might be the best way to get him up.
I also dont know why you could not have put Nathan in in the eighth. If you dont get through the eighth, there is no ninth to save.
Again, this makes Billy Smiths suggestion that there are no glaring needs laughable.
While I can see that overall, the Twins have done well lately, these last two losses really hurt. One for the lack of a bat, and the other for the lack of an arm.
I was at the game yesterday. A whole lot of fun until the eight, when I told my buddy that I didn’t have a good feeling about our bullpen.
With the loss of Neshek we need someone to get American Leaguers out before Nathan. I am all for the Liriano set-up idea, in fact I mentioned it yesterday to my buddy. Heck, let’s give anybody a try Mulvey, Humber - Our bullpen just gives up far too many base runners/runs.
Sox fan here and I was at the game. Your starter had the Sox off-balance all night long. Keep him until the Iron in the 8th and have Nathan pitch to Manny-Lowell-Yuke. Have someone else pitch the ninth. Anyone can get the bottom of the Sox order out. Simple isn’t it. Francona baited your manager to pull out the starter, after only 85 pitches. Lester threw 117. Thanks Twins manager, your checks in the mail.
“Again, this makes Billy Smiths suggestion that there are no glaring needs laughable.”
That suggestion was made before the Red Sox series. Mr. Smith may be re-thinking that statement.
Oh please. Most painful defeat??? Obviously the author of this blog is a very casual fan and does not watch a lot of baseball.
Not most painful but sure revealing of Gardy’s tentative nature. The top managers go for the “kill” in both games like this (esp. on the road) and using second or third tier relievers is as if they were thinking spring training - I absolutely do not get it. Why have we not heard from Gardy?!
“FranK” hit the proverbial nail on the head! Gardy was baited and he repeatedly replaces his hot starter with less-than-apt relievers - crazy and absolutely dumb! (see previous top managers, ala LaRussa, etc. and what they have done in similar situations).
Joanie,
Busted. I just started watching the Twins last weekend. Welcome to the blog.
To me, it just goes to show (yet again) that the Twins simply cannot compete with the AL big boys. Yeah, we can destroy NL teams, and loser teams like Cleveland. But when it comes to teams we’d almost definitely face in the post-season, we’re toast. And a lot of it falls right on Ron Gardenhire.
Howard, I think Joanie has a point. Dropping another well-played game against the champs at their place, where they’ve lost 10 or 11 times all season is painful?
I thought getting drubbed three times by a very ordinary White Sox team a few weeks back was much more painful. Much more. Not close.
Thanks Howard. I figured I was on to something. 
I just don’t see why people get their undies in a wad whenever this team loses. It’s a LONG, LONG season, folks. They are not going to win every game. There will be losses along the way. Some will be close, like yesterday’s game; others will be blowouts.
Relax and enjoy the season!
Gardenhire has lost the last two games…completely out managed and clueless! Perhaps it is time for him to go???
I also agree with Gardy’s decision to bunt Punto to third. What really frustrates me is when Kubel stood there and watched not one, but two fastballs for strikes. Papelbon had thrown nothing but fastballs to speak of. All he needed to do is look for a fastball and drive it. Maybe the Twins should try a safety squeeze every time we have a runner on third and less than two outs. I would like to see where we rank statistically in that category. I lose track of how many times we have failed to get the run in.
Fran,
As Gardy noted after the game, there were enough mistakes made that Tuesday’s loss can’t be counted as “well played” in the same way that Monday’s was.
Can we start commenting on Brian Bass again?
Joanie - my undies are officially wadded
My frustration is quickly turning into apathy for this team.
“Obviously the author of this blog is a very casual fan and does not watch a lot of baseball.”
Howard,
To become “a very casual fan who does not watch a lot of baseball.” is my goal for the summer.
Please give me some insight on how I can become YOU.
Is there some kind patch I can wear to ease the cravings?
“My frustration is quickly turning into apathy for this team.”
That’s commonly called “giving up”.
Sane,
Giving up for this series, that is. Bring on Detroit!
TwinsFix,
“Giving up for this series, that is. Bring on Detroit!”
Thats commonly called “giving up giving up”
Call it what it is. 
Do we think Liriano is back (And not back in the way he was back earlier this year) in a way that he can handle the pressure of 8th inning guy?
What was Johan’s role when he first came up?
T,
I would much rather give Breslow or Korecky the opportunity to try-out for the 8th inning position before calling Liriano up again.
If neither of them are more effective than what we have now, I would consider sending Perkins back to the ‘Pen, calling up Liriano to the rotation, and sending down Bass.
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