A change that can be made today
Posted on July 10th, 2008 – 8:39 AMBy Howard
*No, I don’t feel like a great visionary for saying this: But Denard Span needs to bat leadoff and Carlos Gomez needs to be dropped to the nine spot for now. In 70 plate appearances, Span has a .426 on-base percentage and hasn’t looked at all overmatched against lefties. You can argue for Gomez on the basis of disruption despite a .298 OBP and a team-high strikeout total only when you don’t have someone else who deserves a look, someone who is currently getting on base at a freakish level.
*If you’re resigned to the notion that Delmon Young isn’t going to slug homers, I’d be looking at his .345 batting average since June 1 and seeing something good. I’d also be looking at his outfield play and saying that he absolutely, definitely, positively has to improve. Frankly, I think having four starting-worthy outfielders, when Cuddyer returns, is a healthy way to keep everyone on their game.
*Nick Punto: .302 average/.358 on-base percentage/.448 slugging percentage in 107 plate appearances. He also has a ground out:fly out ratio of 1.54:1, which is a huge improvement over his career total.
*The Twins fought off a Detroit charge last week at the Dome and can do the same during the four-game series that begins today with the Tigers 3 1/2 games behind the Twins, ground closed by Detroit thanks to a three-game sweep of Cleveland. That means Cleveland has dropped 10 in a row. Good luck with your new team, Juan! Put in a good word for Tyner, would ya?
*Check LaVelle’s blog. He makes the case that the Twins’ main need is for a hard-throwing set-up guy to make a title run.
*From the “my stats rock, your stats don’t” department. I checked out the top 10 relievers in the American League, based on saves, and crunuched these numbers:
Reliever >1 IP/G Sv/SvOpp
Rodriguez, LA 0/42 35/38
Papelbon, Bos 6/40 27/31
Sherrill, Bal 4/41 27/32
Nathan, Min 0/37 25/27
Rivera, NY 6/38 23/23
Soria, KC 3/37 23/25
Wilson, Tex 1/41 22/24
Percival, TB 0/29 19/21
Jenks, Chi 1/32 18/21
Ryan, Tor 0/32 17/19
What does that tell you?
*Nick Punto: .302 average/.358 on-base percentage/.448 slugging percentage in 107 plate appearances. He also has a ground out:fly out ratio of 1.54:1, which is a huge improvement over his career total. (Just figured I’d repeat myself in case you missed it the first time.)
*Day game today. It’s “Christmas in July Day” at Comerica, featuring Kevin Slowey as Scrooge.
other people are here too
38 Responses to "A change that can be made today"
“What does that tell you”
Absolutely nothing. But that’s just me.
On Delmon, I like what he is starting to do at the plate. I still cringe seeing him run after a ball in the field. It’s like when I tried to steal a base. You expected the worst, but if it worked, then we were all relieved.
I think we are more than just a set-up guy away. In fact, I’d still like to see Garrett Atkins manning the hot corner. Great D, solid hitting, and some power. Then if you still look at this as a rebuilding year, which I do, I see Neshek coming back next year as the set-up guy we need. Henceforth, adding a solid 3B would be beneficial. Love Buscher, but love him more as a LH backup.
I agree with the Denard statement. I would say, as devil’s advocate, that if you put Go-Go in an unfamiliar role, he might continue to struggle. Don’t wanna mess with his confidence, even if he has an overabundance.
Lastly, LNP is back baby! Ok, kinda premature, but he’s like the troubled sibling you pull for to succeed. In the end he’s overly despised, but in the back of everyone’s mind we want him to succeed.
Anyway, enough analogies for today. Let’s get ‘em in Detroit.
If we are going to play LNP every day…. I think batting Gomez 8 might be better. Little more power/speed, actually less of a liability running the bases.
I agree with Shawn. Clearly, everyone believes (except for Gardy?) that Gomez does not belong at #1 at this point. If he is 8th or 9th, he is still in the #8-#2 order where his speed can be utilized.
I am very happy that Young’s bat is coming around, I just think someone needs to work with him on his defense. He takes some of the oddest routes and seems to get bad reads. I just shut my eyes and hope for the best anytime a ball is hit to left field. I hate to say it, but I almost have more faith in Kubel as a fielder…
JP…plus it looks loke Young isn’t even running that fast in the outfield. On the bases he is fast but when he is running after a ball that get’s by him in left field it looks like he is taking a casual stroll in the grass. No sense of urgency.
Is it just me or does Young seem like an old man running around out there. You would never guess he is 22 years old.
Plus I think he is kinda out of shape.
no question young has struggled in the field, however we saw yesterday how soon we forget what kind of fielder kubal is. looking back at the last 5-6 yrs his hitting is much better than anything we’ve had and equal to stewarts best yrs. we have never had a power hitter in left that i can recall since the allison days. and the expectation, and false ones at that, young would be a power guy i still still can’t fiigure out who made that up. there is no evidence of that in his past.
looking back he doesn’t seem to bad compared to; tyner, ron white, rabe, g. jones, mike ryan, restovich, jj, dustin mohr and bobby kielty to name a few.
the positive thing for me is he has been improving and that is what you want from a young player. gomez, however exciting he is, looks like he is going backwards. i think many forget how much jj, hunter and cuddy battled for the first 2-3 yrs going up and down and often looking really bad.
funny i don’t hear the outrage over nicky’s roller to the pitcher on the the first pitch yesterday when the go ahead runner was on second like we heard about young hitting the first pitch for an out monday in a similar at bat. selective hatred imo!
don’t worry gobble, i still hate LNP just fine 
So Howard, are you saying its time for Nathan to be his own set-up man? Its funny that NY and Bos are apparently the teams stretching their closers the most, but they also arguably have the two most effective closers, certainly the most popular of the bunch anyway…. I would like to know how many of those 6 games with more than an inning pitched by Rivera and P-Bon came in games against each other. At any rate, I’d personally like to see the twins spend some money on a perceived hole rather than throwing a barrage of fledgling minor leagers at the wall and seeing what sticks for once in the freaking life of this franchise.
the expectation bar for PUNTO is so low
him swinging and making contact is cause for cheering
What does that tell you?
It tells me that Boston and New York (and Baltimore and KC) are much more willing to use a key bullpen asset in high leverage situations than Gardy is. But it also tells me that Gardy is not alone among managers in his reluctance to use his closer for more than one inning in a game. Also, that Nathan has been used fairly frequently in non-save situations “just to get some work in.” I’d prefer to see him get his work in when the outcome of an important game is on the line. So, is there a prize or something for getting the answer right?
Look at how many non-save situations Wilson from TX has come in on as well, not a good sign for them.
Watching Delmon Young play left field is like watching someone try to run in quicksand. I’ve also held the opinion, previously posted on various comment boards, that Gomez should hit ninth to create a “double leadoff” situation. So well-played to Howard.
Regarding Young’s defense…cause for concern, yes. I note the total number of games he’d played LF at the major league level prior to this season = zero. Granted, we’re getting a little long in the season for the learning curve, but in terms of this last series, I don’t think Delmon is the first left fielder to be eaten alive by the Monster in his team’s first visit.
Howard, if (as we’ve heard ad nauseum from commenters all year) that 2006 was Punto’s “career year” (despite it being only his 2nd season as a regular player) what would they call this year if (as it is now) his stats are better than his 2006 line?
Corrollary question — how many commenters’ heads will explode if Punto plays well enough to get another contract? Or is that like asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?
It’s time. It would be a good move for the team because it would get more base runners for Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Kubel/Young. It would be a good move for Span because he can grind more at bats in the lead-off spot. It would be a good move for Gomez because he would see what the pitchers’ trying to do and have a plan going up to the plate. It also would take some of the pressure off him to produce right out of the chute. The odd man out seems to be Monroe. If Span slides over to left and Young takes the right half of the DH platoon, Monroe is an extra piece.
Punto’s avg will drop. He is not a .300 hitter and never will be. I say play him as long as he is hot. He will be back to his old self by the time Tolbert is ready to go and they will Platoon at SS.
Monroe is a worthless piece and needs to be traded/Cut along with Lamb and Everett.
Punto can’t hit. It’s that simple his 302 average is just with limited ABs. He can field though.
As for Young his fielding sucks buts its better than Kubel. So Youngs fielding doesn’t have to improve because there is nobody to replace him and he can hit.
Finally Span should not bad leadoff. He will be on the bench or in the minors in a month or two. Casilla should bat leadoff with Span 2nd for now. Why is Span the 2nd coming for Twins fans? Look at his career minor league numbers! They suck! He has no power average fielding, not great baserunning skills, and doesn’t walk much. What he is doing now is Lew Ford syndrome. Once pitchers know what gets him out he’s done and without power he is really done. He will be playing for Japan with Lew or in AAA with Tyner in a year or two. Cuddyer needs to get healthy and play regularly
Gobbledygookguy, Kubel is nothing but someone who has minor league talent in RF, thus is allowed to play in the absence of the usual minor league “can’t catch a fly ball if it approaches the baggie” Cuddyer. In my view, Kubel is a left-handed Cruddy. No player should be allowed to “find himself” over the course of 5 seasons — and still make the same bone-headed mistakes time after time after time after time. Span makes catches that neither of the other two can attempt because (a) he’s a good player and (b) they’re not.
GBG ~ My head would be one of them. However… I have to acknowledge that he has been impressive. I’ve never been toooo vocally anti-punto, but the feelings are there. He was good in 2006, but let him find a new team after this season.
This may seem like crazy talk, but whatever.
We’ve got five solid starters (Baker, Blackburn, Perkins, Slowey and Liriano) and one mediocre one in Hernandez. We don’t need six starters, but we do need a new setup guy as you pointed out. What if the Twins converted Liriano into a reliever while he’s in AAA and bring him up for the second half?
GBG: I would imagine the Twins are considering resigning Punto, if only because him being on the roster will insure that the Strib blogs get plenty of hits from constant moaning.
It’s actually rather ingenious.
Speaking of closers, what are Nathan’s numbers in “non-save” situations. Or in situations where asked to pitch more than one inning?
I seem to remember at least one pretty disasterous > 1 inning outting against the Yanks in the playoffs.
Seem to also recall Gardy getting a LOT of heat for daring to use his closer for more than one inning.
T,
So far in 2008, Nathan has appeared in ten non-save situations. In 37 total starts. Here are his numbers:
10 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 16 K, 1 HR, 0.90 ERA, 1 WP, 6 GF (games finished in relief)
Seems to me like Nathan is still a pretty good pitcher in non-save situations.
As to that Yankee game, it was game two of the AL division series. Nathan earned the loss when he gave up two runs on one hit during 2.1 innings.
If the Twins are letting Kubel ‘find himself’ over 5 seasons, its b/c he represents one out of 2 legitimate home run threats in the lineup at the moment.
Too many stats on that entry and in these comments. Numbers make my head spin. I feel like I have to be some kind of financial expert to enjoy the game 
Anyway, the twins are in a tailspin. If they can’t turn this game around fast, it’s going to be a LONG all-star break.
Delmon.
He’s young and all but does anyone but me wonder about all the ground balls that get under his glove or that he doesn’t fquite ield cleanly? It seems as if he can’t/won’t bend his knees.
For a guy who “can’t hit…it’s that simple”, I like what he’s doing with the bat lately!
new closer too? Just kidding…
Joanie,
Sorry for bringing out the numbers like that. I’ll admit it, I’m a stat geek. “D
About Nathan’s innings…He has 3 or 4 less innings than the top saves leaders in the American League. This is actually a statistically significant difference. If you put Nathan in the games were people have been critical of his absence, he pitches another 2.5 innings tops. If he comes through, the Twins have 3 or 4 more wins….sweep Detroit earlier in the year and take 2 of three from Boston. Pitching to a couple more batters wont kill anyone. I have to give Gardy props today though, He did a great job managing in the later innings.
Great stuff, Howard. The stats don’t lie.
Buckshotmike,
I agree with you. A much better job by Gardy today. However I must admit that I was terrified that he would send Bass of Boof in for some reason.
I would of rather have someone like Baker pitch relief in this game.
I can’t believe I’m writing this, but with the way Morneau was swinging today, the game doesn’t go into extras if Span and Punto bat first and second.
Ouch! My fingers…
How about Boof as a set up man. He makes me nervous, but he does throw hard with a good breaking ball. Plus he could eat more and be happier. I think it may be worth a shot as an experiment.
Amen! to the idea of switching up Span and Gomez. It keeps the 3 speedsters in tack, yet takes the pressure of Gomez. Clearly, Span has the numbers and rightfully deserves to bat in the 1 spot.
What on earth are you talking about re: Punto’s GO/AO? A significant jump in GO/AO for a hitter is a something to be happy about? Take a look at the top 10 American League “leaders” in GO/AO: The HIGHEST OPS in the bunch is a mere .769, and three of the 10 are burping along below .700. On the other hand, the players occupying slots 74-83 (the “bottom” 10 qualifiers in the AL) range from .720 to .935, with seven of them over .780.
I’d say all we’re seeing is that in this year’s small sample size a disproportionate number of balls Punto’s hit in the air have found gaps, thus raising both Punto’s GO/AO and his hitting numbers. I like the guy, but I’ll take Jason Giambi’s .55 GO/AO or Grady Sizemore’s .78 or Ian Kinsler’s .67, thanks very much.
Don’t talk about numbers unless you understand them.
