Like good pizza, a great movie and excellent seats to the game
Posted on July 14th, 2008 – 8:33 AMBy Howard
That’s pretty much how I’m feeling about the Twins season so far.
These final 2 1/2 months hold more promise than I would have thought back on that night in March when we trudged through the snow and watched the opener. From what I can tell from the national media, the team has changed its nickname to “the surprising Twins.” Kind of like “the disappointing Indians” and “the slumping Rays.”
That pretty much says everything, but you’re probably expecting a bit more. So here goes:
When I browse the statistics going into the All-Star break, the subtle thing that stands out to me is how the first- and second-year pitchers in the rotation — Slowey/Baker/Blackburn/Perkins — are a combined 25-15. That’s 10 games over .500 for a team that’s 11 over. While there have been slip-ups along the way (Slowey’s last two starts and the four-dinger start against Milwaukee by Blackburn a couple of weekends back, for examples), these guys have improved faster than I expected. They’ve more than made up for the Boof disappointment.
And the Livan thing. His 9-6 record defies explanation based on the rest of his stats and because of all the chatter about how he’d be the most replaceable if the Twins call up Liriano, I asked someone close to the team about the whole “good influence on younger pitchers issue” that is associated with Senor Smoke Free. I’m typically skeptical about that sort of thing, which was the reason I asked.
Here’s what I was told: “Slowey raves about him. Baker, I think, has learned to compose himself mid-inning better because of Livan. Blackburn, I’m not sure. Livan impresses me as one of my favorite thinking man’s pitchers. … Still, I do see where too much can be made of it.”
In other words, don’t dismiss the hype but don’t get carried away with it, either. I heard Livan say in an interview recently that he’s typically been a better second-half pitcher. I checked the career numbers, which showed that he has a 4.56 ERA in the first half of the season compared with 3.99 in the second half. He’s also put on 2,080 runners in 1,382 first-half innings (1.51 per inning) over his career and 1,495 in 1,110 second-half innings (1.34).
I keep him.
In the bullpen, I’ll repeat what I said over the weekend: another arm is needed to get Nathan/Guerrier/Crain from becoming toast later in the season. All three of them gutted their way through the Detroit series in a way that worked because Gardy could look ahead to the four-day All Star break. Brian Bass isn’t that guy and showed it again yesterday. In the games when he’s entered in the seventh inning or later, Bass has a 7.32 ERA in about 20 innings.
There will be arms available and the Twins need one.
That being said, aside from the actual on-field performance from the team’s stars and from those who are surprising us with their ability, the thing that impresses me the most is the knack that Gardy and Bill Smith have shown for putting people in the right spots. Whether it was knowing when to bring Perkins into the rotation (and keep him there) or when to get Blackburn a bit extra rest or making the right moves about who to play and where to play ‘em (Casilla, Punto, Harris, Buscher, Young, Kubel, Span and Tolbert are on that list), I’m impressed by the way the human chess game has played out.
Sure, Lamb and Everett are moves that didn’t need to be made, but I can hear the hollering if the Twins had started the season with Buscher/Macri/Harris at third base and Punto/Harris/Tolbert at shortstop. You can hear it too, I’ll bet. Way to sit on your hands, Bill Smith.
(I’m not understanding the Gomez still batting leadoff thing. Gardy’s explanation doesn’t sway me, but I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt here. And to Gomez’ credit, he has not taken the offensive problems into center field with him, where he continues to cover ground in unprecedented-in-Minnesota fashion. Sorry, Torii. It’s certainly better than the current mess in Detroit, where Smoky Leyland found out that Carlos Guillen couldn’t play first base after the Cabrera trade and now pretty much has two infielders out of position, among other problems.)
Now we’ve reached a well-earned break. I’m up for watching the Twins’ All-Star contingent and I’m OK with all the hype about the last All-Star Game in Yankee Stadium because you can’t overstate how special a place it has been in our sports history. And having it happen now is a whole lot better than having it happen during the postseason! Time to gear down and prepare for a second half that right now carries more meaning for 2008 than 2010.
Would never have guessed.
A “programming note.” I’ll be on MPR’s Midday program with Gary Eichten at noon Tuesday. It’s at 91.1 FM and on the web at www.mpr.org. It’s a call-in and e-mail show.
other people are here too
117 Responses to "Like good pizza, a great movie and excellent seats to the game"
“Sure, Lamb and Everett are moves that didn’t need to be made, but I can hear the hollering if the Twins had started the season with Buscher/Macri/Harris at third base and Punto/Harris/Tolbert at shortstop. You can hear it too, I’ll bet. Way to sit on your hands, Bill Smith.”
I think most Twins fans have seen enough of this spending for washed up vets - we want moves made for quality players otherwise keep the cash and let the kids see what they can do..
Is that person close to the Twins that you spoke with Bert Blyleven?
this team doesn’t appear to have enough to go deep in a playoff run, with what they have, if they are able to hang in there. they are bad against lh pitching and have a road heavy rest of the season. if they keep livan call up liriano and spot start livan in an occasional home game to give each young guy a break, long season for young arms.
smith needs to do what it takes to add beltre (best option) and another relief pitcher my choice would be houston street. we have several pitchers of some quality in the minors that will be out of options time to get something out of them rather than lose them next winter. we lost a ton of players last winter that could have been used to add talent instead we got nada. and flip flop span and gomez until gomez shows some life in his bat. no reason to give away all those at bats at the top of the order.
let’s hope morneau doesn’t screw up his swing tonight if he slumps we’re done anyway.
Howard, I don’t like when you call Livan “Senior Smoke” for two reasons:
1. There’s was (and ever shall be) only one Senior Smoke–Juan Berenguer!
2. What smoke? Livan throws batting practice meatballs!
As for Gomez, I’d like to see him not be the easiest out in the regular lineup. Though Span would be much better leading off, I do like how he turns the lineup over.
B Dubz,
Please look again at the nickname. Then see if your criticism holds.
Best, Howard
Thanks, Howard, for a good first half from the cheap seats, too.
Sort the center field numbers a different way and Gomez has 35 more putouts than the closest AL centerfielder:
And 30 more putouts than any MLB centerfielder this year:
Hunter only had 387 putouts all last year. Is that the pitching? Or the centerfielder?
I just read A-Rod is refusing to play in the HR derby because in his words - “it’s screws up your swing for 3 weeks” does anyone buy that??
Howard, I love your column because of your candor. Each day that I read, I feel like you don’t have any long-standing relationship with players or the front office. You can say what’s on your mind.
Of course, that doesn’t mean I agree with everything you write (though, for the most part, I do).
Here’s where I differ today.
Livan Hernandez should be sent to the Boof-pen, err, bullpen. His numbers are scarily poor. I love this bluster from the front office, that has even leaked onto the Twins broadcasts that, “There is no place for Liriano right now.” That is absurd. Let’s be sure to look real close at Livan H’s numbers:
5.44 ERA
173 hits in 120 innings
A paltry 45Ks in 120 innings
1.62 WHIP
All of these represent the worst statistics in his career. Relative to pitching performance across our team, across the majors, even across Rochester, this is unacceptably poor performance.
The cop-out is to cite his won-loss record which, in this case, is obviously a greater indication of run support than any work by Livan.
While I believe Hernandez is finished at the major league level (actually, he was finished halfway through last year with Arizona), I am willing to accept him as a long reliever. If you want the truth, though, Livan would be best used as an assistant pitching coach — off the playing roster.
Francisco is ready. He has earned the promotion through effort and performance. The Twins need to stop managing dollars and cents with him and bring him up. For anyone to suggest that there is no spot for him, while Hernandez’s numbers are disastrous, is either a harmless oversight OR a front-office conspiracy (e.g. the arbitration issue).
Let’s run this team to win this year AND to build for the future. The choice is obvious.
T-Mouse
Morneau said it screwed up his swing when he was in the home run derby last…
Apparently moving Gomez down in the lineup will cause irreparable harm, but sending Span down to the minors (twice) after a great spring is no big deal.
Morneau has since backed off that stance - Gardy also said Morneau struggles in Toronto because he presses too much trying to impress the “homeland” fans.. then Morneau lit up Toronto last year… Jayson Stark investigated these so called HR Derby “curse” he found it to have no merit A-Rod in fact after his last HR Derby appearance hit 4 HRs in 4 games immediately after the ASB !!
I’ll begin my All-Star break thoughts by commending Howard Sinker on offering us a great daily forum to discuss Twins issues throughout the season. It’s been a pleasure to participate and to read everyone’s thoughts…
On to my thoughts:
While I ultimately agree with Howard that at the end of the day you have to give Gardy and Bill Smith credit for what’s going on in 2008, I wish he Howard would stick to his guns on moving Go-go out of the lead-off spot.
“Gardy’s explanation doesn’t sway me, but I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt here.” I won’t. I’ll give Gardy a lot of benefit, but not on this issue. Go-go needs to improve drastically before we give him the lead-off spot and Denard Span is clearly more suited for this job. I don’t know if it has anything to do with the Johan trade (I should sure hope not) or whatever, but starting Friday, Denard Span should lead off.
The Chicago White Sox are the most underrated team in baseball. The Mets win 9 straight and they’re 1/2 game out of first…the Twins win 10 straight, then another 5 straight…ultimately go on that huge June tear…are 8-4 in July….and yet, we never did get past the White Sox. Meanwhile, the Tigers still have yet to break out of the slump that started from Day One, and the Indians are so bad that manager Eric Wedge’s days should be numbered. Ozzie Guillen and his boys deserve a lot of credit.
I suspect this slide the Rays are on will continue into the second half and they will quickly become a non-factor. They are the most overrated team in baseball (overrated because everyone has said time and time again that they are for real–I predict we will find out that they are NOT for real; not in that division, anyway).
I think there’s a lot to be excited about with the Twins…starters have been much better than we could’ve expected…bullpen NEEDS an 8th inning arm…although Joe Nathan has been superb…lineup has been great for the most part…
D Young might have to take a seat for Kubel / Monroe / Span / (someone else…heck, Maybe Punto) if his inconsistency continues…the youth project may have to be put on hold if the Twins are in contention.
Michael Cuddyer has been a huge disappointment. That’s all I’m saying on that. La Velle attempted to sell hope a couple weeks ago, but I, for one, am not buying it. Stick with Span, Gardy.
Hopefully, we’ll have some fun in the second half…that will be the challenge for Gardy and Co….keep that other team in town from stealing the headlines in August!
“it’s screws up your swing for 3 weeks” does anyone buy that??
Morneau has commented on it, and Jim Thome turned down the offer either last year or the year before for similiar reasons. There’s more, but those are two off the top of the head that hit close to home.
It’s certinaly nothing new. It’s just the typical overhyping that usually comes when anything involving the Yankees so much as farts.
Combine that with it being at Yankee Stadium and it makes it an even bigger unneccesary stink.
I have a good feeling that this year’s ASG will be completely ruined by the media, as they take the “Midsummer Classic” and turn it into “Yankeepalooza”.
At some point, Liriano cannot be ignored. How many consecutive scoreless innings in AAA does he have to put up before they do something? I say 30, which is one more start. Then the Twins will have a tough call with Livan. But I can’t believe they would let him give up 2 hits an inning and 6 runs a game while Liriano is dominating, no matter what his influence is on Slowey and Baker. Once they learn those lessons about slowing down, relaxing and letting their pitches do the work, how long do they need Livan physically around to reinforce those lessons? I say July 31 at the latest. After that, Andy will just have to say “remember what Livan said….” And he’ll be a phone call away, assuming they don’t trade him within the division.
but sending Span down to the minors (twice) after a great spring is no big deal.
Did Span really light it up in his first stay with the Twins this season?
I disagree on Lamb/Everett in that I don’t think most of us would have been upset in going with the kids since all but the most optimistic saw this as a rebuilding year anyways. I was lukewarm on the Lamb/Everett/Livan signings at the time and like was mentioned above, I wish they would stop the bargain basement veteran signings. When was the last time any of them panned out? Molitor? Maybe Mike Jackson. The parallels to 2006 are eerie (stagnant with Batista/Castro, energized with Punto/Bartlett).
I do think that this is Gardy’s best job managing.
I have a tough time swallowing this business about the Derby messing with a player’s swing. A few rounds should have no worse effect that a round of golf and/or the first few swings of batting practice where players are asked to ‘hit behind the runner.’ As mentioned, perhaps Morneau’s lack of rest over the break could be cited for his second half decline a year ago.
I see A-Rod’s explanation as a cop-out as many others do. He just wants to hang out and rest. His explanation that his “responsibility is to the Yankees” is gross. The reason he’s being paid close to $300 million over the next decade is because baseball is a $6 billion industry. He makes his money because people - fans - pay to watch baseball. It’s amazing to me how far A-Rod’s head is stuck up his own ass even when compared to other superstars - Derek Jeter for example.
**Look for a smaller guy with some pop to win tonight … it takes a lot of endurance to put up decent homer numbers in each of three rounds! I like Sizemore to win.
I figured Livan would be a cheaper Silva. (he’s been that and more comparred to Silva this year)
I hated the Lamb signing. (I wanted Buscher to get his big chance)
I stomached the Everett signing. (Based on the thought that Young would be showing better power than he has so far, and having no idea that Punto would bounce back as he has thus far)
I still stand by the Livan signing. Though I am expecting them to cut bait with him by the end of July. Liriano was a disaster earlier this year, but it’s time to give him his second chance (it worked for Span and Casilla right?)
When Neshak went out, I posted a comment something like: “Oh crap, there goes our only capable set-up guy.” Several posters boldly responded that I was wrong as we had many able young pitchers and one or many of them would step up and Neshak was replaceable. I won’t say, “I told …” Ok, I kind of did.
Whoever posted that a set-up guy is a greater need than 3rd, absolutely. If we don’t acquire someone, I would like to see Liriano be given a chance. I think Busher/Macri/Harris will be fine, but I wouldn’t mind having Beltre
At the time, I didn’t see the point of signing Everett but, looking at Lamb’s nos., I thought that was a good pick-up. BS could not have known that Lamb would be a complete let-down. Agree with the Livan signing as well.
Hey, my smiley face was misplaced! Was supposed to be after the Beltre sentence….
Jason -
“D Young might have to take a seat for Kubel / Monroe / Span / (someone else…heck, Maybe Punto) if his inconsistency continues…the youth project may have to be put on hold if the Twins are in contention.”
What inconsistency? Since the beginning of May, Young is hitting .295 / .340 / .418. Since June 1st, his line is .321 / .341 / .466. Since July 1st, it’s .319 / .340 / .447. Delmon Young had a bad start to the season, and has been pretty consistent since the beginning of June, if not May.
If there is anything that needs to be addressed in the Twins outfield, it is the play of Carlo Gomez, who has been terrible from the plate. So while I agree with you that Gomez shouldn’t be batting lead off, I disagree with where he should be. I think Gomez belongs in the minors. Let him play every day, learn how to take a walk, take good routes on balls, etc. The Twins are in contention now - they need players who produce, not those learning on the job.
dick b showing his never ending man crush on punto friday night says things have really turned aroung since punto got back in the lineup he’s the heart and soul of the team; (10 game winning streak before, nicky back in the lineup lose to break streak and 9-6 since). now he is playing much better than expected but certainly isn’t the heart and soul of this team, imo that guy hangs around first base. can’t see this team winning 10 in a row with morneau on the dl.
I’d like to thank everyone in the comments thread for putting up consistently thoughtful stuff. Comment areas collapse when they get littered with exclamation points and hyperbole. I much prefer to see the mind of the community (the wisdom of crowds) acting as a collective GM.
A few more thoughts from T Mouse today.
Our front office is an unproven entity right now and should view themselves that way. This team is great this year not because of front office maneuvering but in spite of it. I am NOT hammering our leadership. Just advocating that they be humble AND that they use some timeless leadership principles to speed their progress toward greatness.
Here’s one key principle. Cut the dead weight. The problem with letting laggards live on is that they hurt the high performers on the team. High performers have high standards for themselves and thrive on others who hold themselves accountable and push, push, push. (Think “piranhas”).
Whom should we part ways with?
ADAM EVERETT — He has not been productive for four years. His numbers are dismal this year. We need to understand that when his team downgrades him as the Astros did last year, we should be very, very careful.
MIKE LAMB — The front office needs to stop being defensive about this one. Though we can pinpoint the mistaken assumptions here, that doesn’t matter. What matters is moving underperformers along to make room for guys like Macri. Lamb is a 32-year-old with a very choppy career. Get what you can for him or let him go.
BOOF BONSER — The idea that you can’t send him down because other teams will grab him is borderline absurd. Opp avg is .292. Nearly 60 earned runs in 80 innings. Take the chance of getting him back to triple A.
BRIAN BASS — Belongs in the minors. Korecki deserves this slot. The decision to bring Bass into the 8th inning of a 0-0 game in Fenway was one of Gardy’s worst of the season (incidentally, I think we have a very, very solid manager in Gardy).
LIVAN HERNANDEZ — At best, he should start the second half in a Boof-like long relief role. At worse, we should let him go. The wheels have been coming off this cart for some time.
This has been a terrific first half for the Twins. We have an even shot at winning our division, because our starters are delivering, Morneau/Mauer are having a beautiful season, and our call-ups have delivered. Alexi and Denard are team changers (the sort of high performers you HAVE to make room for).
But the front office can’t take a lot of credit right now. We have succeeded, to this point, in spite of them. Oh, and, by the way, I think they’re going to be successful; this is early in their leadership. But a sign of their progress will be their willingness to remove underperformers, regardless of the contracts they’ll have to eat.
Go Twins.
-T Mouse
I ended up muting the sound Friday night as DickBert would not stop the ridiculous Punto raving, as if he is the team MVP. It was so over the top, especially considering that the team was playing VERY well when he was out, that I was wondering if the FO told them to sing his praises.
He has played just OK since being inserted into the line-up. His offense, better than expected but too many baserunning gaffes negating his hits; defense - sometimes makes great plays, but too often tries to hotdog routine plays into a webgem and ends up blowing a simple play. I would like to see him used off the bench as a late-inning sub, but that will never happen with Gardy in charge.
No offense, but I’ll take Dick & Bert’s opinion over your’s any day of the week.
Without a doubt, Punto has played his way into the starting SS position. Clutch, timely hitting and very good defense. You note that Punto often hotdogs it and blows easy plays…I’m really not sure where you’re getting that. I disagree. He’s our best defensive infielder.
Besides, it’s a good story because it’s so unexpected. After his terrible season last year, it’s worth talking about. Put the sound back up and settle down.
Kay……
“He’s our best defensive infielder.”
I whole heartily disagree with you. Where have you been? J-Mo and Mauer are the BEST defensive infielders for the Twins. J-Mo is second in the AL in FPCT and Mauer is tops. I dont know where you get your info but Punto is NOT our best defensive infielder. If we had anybody else at 1B, Punto would end up with 20 errors….J-Mo is the best and same with Mauer!
Dear “Kay …… says” if you believe in your opinions, at least have the small amount of guts that it takes to use your real fake blog name.
If the radio broadcast was not ahead of the tv, I would always mute the tv as DickBert are such kool-aid sipping company men. And Dick gets sooooo excited when the ball is hit deeeeeeeeeeep to the outfield; ooh, but right at the fielder who is nonchalantly waiting for the ball to drop into his glove. Who would have thought that listening to Gladden could be refreshing?
I’m with Kay, not Kay…. on this issue.
The only local media member who’s had the guts to question DnB is Doogie Wolfson at KFAN.
Dan Gladden is the best Twins broadcaster, bar none.
Again yesterday afternoon….for the 1000th time, Dick called a fly ball to right field as if it was an upper deck homerun….
Hawk H. would’ve called the same play as such: “Fly ball to right…inning over.”
Baseball broadcast rule 101: let the action call itself 99 percent of the time.
let’s face it Twins have a sorry crew of Radio/TV broadcasting folks -I miss the days of Joe Angel and Herb Carneal - Joe got sent packing for not being a “Homer” enough and critizing the team
In response…
My real name is Ben (that’s a VERY small amount of guts - originally, I just wanted to make it clear what I was commenting on. Now, I just want to be consistent.)
When I indicated that Punto is our best infielder, I guess I should have been more specific. I should have said Punto is our best fielder at 2B/SS/3B. Although technically, Morneau and Mauer are infielders, I really wasn’t reffering to them because it doesn’t make sense to compare Punto’s defensive performance to them. But also, fielding percentage is not useful when comparing first basemen to shortstops. Christian, if you think it is, well, you probably shouldn’t be writing a baseball blog.
Personally, I really enjoy Dick and Bert. I like them, I like that they get excited. I like that they’re homers - I am too. That’s completely my opinion, and I suppose I can understand the complaints, but I’m a big Dick & Bert fan.
Bobby Korecky is the answer to our bullpen woes…the kid was up here from AAA and did a great job in pressure filled situations. He should be our 8th inning guy. Everyone else in that pen, with the exception of Craig Breslow and Nathen of course, seems to be suspect in the clutch.
Kay…..
I’m a homer, too. But there’s a difference between being a homer and being a liar.
Now I realize the word “liar” is a bit extreme, but you get my point. Fact-twisting, absurdly pro-Twins opining, and turning a blind eye to reality is not part of being a homer, if you ask me. That’s downright unprofessional.
But here’s the thing that bothers me most: let the game call itself. Everyone knows we want Denard Span to hit his first major league homerun…everyone knows that in a similar situation a week ago Kubel hit a HR…everyone knows a double play would be huge in this situation….but let the action play out–don’t ruin it by blathering about your dream scenario only to have it not come to fruition 98 percent of the time! It flat out ruins the game, for me.
All that said, I realize we’re getting nit-picky, but hey, I’m the consumer…I spend approximately 12-15 hours per week watching Twins games!
Casilla has the best range, arm and hands in the infield. He is learning to play smarter.
Part of the solution in the bullpen, might be addition through subtraction. It worked when Rincon was DFA’d. I do not think that it was a coincidence that the day after he left (Jun 13), the Twins started an 18-3 streak. Gardy’s disastrous for the team manlove for Rincon has been replaced by an equally disastrous manlove for Bass. When Bass gets his ticket, this team will be better, simply because Gardy cannot use him.
Another fix would be for Gardy to name a single player (Guerrier/Crain/Breslow) as the 8th inning person and consistently use him in that capacity. The musical chair set up is not working. A factor might be that pen pitchers (other than Nathan-closer, Reyes-situational lefty, Boof-mopeup)do not know their role or when they should expect to be in the game. I am not sure that there is a need to go outside the organization for a set up reliver, just name one of the 3 and use them.
Here are some pitching splits that show at least 3 problem areas:
Starters: 4.59 ERA, 1.400 WHIP
Relievers: 3.85 ERA, 1.450 WHIP
a. Starting pitching is as problematic as the pen
A potential trade of Senor smoke-free and promotion of Liriano later this month would help here
b. The pen has very high WHIP for a contending team
but
here are the individual WHIP numbers:
Breslow: 0.892
Nathan: 0.933
Reyes: 1.154
*Korecky: 1.161
*Neshek: 1.200
Guerrier: 1.333
Crain: 1.397
———–
Bass: 1.595
*Rincon: 1.750
Boof (as a reliever:) 2.092
Clearly, 3 players (Bass, Rincon, Boof) are responsible for the inflated numbers. Rincon is out. The sooner the other 2 follow, the sooner the pen will be better…
total pitching
Home: 3.35 ERA, 1.300 WHIP
Road: 5.49 ERA, 1.540 WHIP
c. the home/road split is horrendous
This is a matter of preparation, coaching and managing. If this is not fixed ASAP, once the Twins are done with their 3 week extended road trip, they might not be a contender any more… An another arm will not fix this problem.
Jason,
Yeah, I see where you’re coming from. Probably the biggest reason I like them so much is because I’m just so used to them. I too spend an unhealthy amount of time watching Twins broadcasts. I’m sure I associate Dick and Bert with the enjoyment I get from watching a team that’s so easy to root for. Good character guys, perennial underdogs. I think Souhan said it in a recent column - for my money, it doesn’t get any better than watching this young Twins team overachieve.
That said, I like it when they make calls - I feel it adds something. Another storyline, maybe. And I don’t think there’s anything wrong with a little optimism. I mean, that’s what I’m thinking when I watch the Twins - “a double play would be nice here!” Or, “Kubel hit a homer in this exact situation last week.” I don’t mind hearing someone say it.
That’s downright unprofessional.
I just don’t see it that way Jason. For comparison sake, I look at the WGN broadcasts (or at least, Sox broadcasts)
I have never seen a pair of annoucers act like such homers in my life. To the point where they mope. LITERALLY.
Not to mention the constant referals to the Sox as “us” “we” and “our”. To me there is nothing more unprofessional and homer-y than to refer to a team as “we”.
The FOX and ESPN broadcasts are usually pretty good (though I still can’t stand Buck, Morgan, or McCarver)
It flat out ruins the game, for me.
Referring to previous games happens in ALL sports and with ALL annoucers. ESPN, FOX, TBS…all of them do their little “Last night he did this” featurette’s…ESPECIALLY in similar situations.
And lord, how often does ANY annoucer state the obvious and say “Twins looking for a home run” or “Looking for a ball on the ground”.
DnB may be a bit less formal than some annoucing crews…but to treat them like their a blight to baseball is ludicrous, especially when there’s far worse annoucers out there getting AWARDS for the bile they spew.
Hawk H. would’ve called the same play as such: “Fly ball to right…inning over.”
No. He’d call it a “can o’ corn”…unless it was hit by the White Sox. Then he’d probably mutter something about a small strikezone and drone on for the rest of the game on how that was a bad call.
thrylos98 -
I like the stats; checked out your blog, pretty interesting stuff. But about your recent post…so let me get this straight - you’re blaming the following things on our pitchinig coach:
- Neshek, Liriano, Crain, Balfour, Perkins, and Reyes all had “major” arm injuries.
- Bonser, Ponson, Lohse, Romero, Rincon, Silva, Mays, and Fultz didn’t turn there careers around as a Twin.
Following that reasoning, there isn’t a single pitching coach with a decent tenure that you couldn’t crucify. Seems like you’re stretching (A LOT) to criticize someone who’s had far more successes than failures. You should think about taking that post down, it’s silly.
The blogger…..
“You should think about taking that post down, it’s silly.”
It’s possible to take posts DOWN?
Please send me instructions.
I want to retract about six months worth.
Tbfk as Kay…,
Howard’s blog is not the place to discuss my blog posts, if you would like to discuss the above, comment on my blog.
But if I did that, nobody would see it. I thought you’d like the publicity.
Sid, I don’t think it’s possible to take comments down here (although if you’re obscene enough, I bet they’d take it down for you) - I was referring to thrylos98’s Twins blog (click on the name).
agreed hopeforthebest. i would take casilla over punto for defense any day of the week.
Tbfk as Kay, could you please change your name to something more apropros, like Ben? I really would not want anyone confusing the two of us.
p.s. Ben - Christian is not “writing a baseball blog”; he is commenting on one.
At the risk of getting skewered around here, I’d like to challenge the prevailing conventional “wisdom” regarding Livan. Yes his stats are bad if all you want to do is look at them on an overall basis. But people have drawn some remarkable conclusions from them that warrant a deeper look. Livan has gone 9-6 while racking up a 5.44 ERA. Therefore, his record is a result of being the beneficiary of terrific run support. Right?
Well before we make assumptions, maybe we should look at the facts (though I realize sometimes they just get in the way of a good rant).
In his nine wins, Hernandez has pitched 63 innings and given up 16 earned runs for a 2.29 ERA. He’s given up 4 runs exactly once… in his second start of the season, vs. the Royals. Yes the Twins scored over 10 runs in three of those wins, but since he gave up 1, 1 and 3 runs in those games, you can hardly say he needed excessive run support to get the Ws.
In his six losses, he’s been awful. Racking up a 10.80 ERA over 28 and a third innings. That said, his offense has backed him up with grand total of 12 runs in those six games… scoring more than 2 runs exactly once (his most recent loss, the 18-5 disaster in Boston). Again, not exactly benefitting from offensive dominance by his team mates.
The only arguable “benefit” he’s received, has been from the team scoring 6.6 runs per game in his “no decisions”, resulting in a 4-1 record for the team in those games and likely saving him from at least a couple of extra losses.
It’s fine to advocate tossing Livan on the scrap heap, but before you do, consider that he was not brought in to be an ace. He was brought in to eat innings (saving bullpen arms for young starters more likely to need them) and provide some veteran stability to the rotation.
To that end, he has already thrown 120 and two thirds innings. He has gone 7+ innings nine times. he has failed to complete 6 innings four times.
“Ah,” you say, “but he’s racked up his wins against bad teams. He can’t beat the top teams.”
Four of his wins have come against teams currently leading their respective Divisions at the AS break. He allowed 2 runs to the Angels on Opening Day. In May he held the White Sox to 1 run (in a complete game) and the Red Sox to 3 runs. He also held the DBacks to 3 runs in a June start. He’s lost two games to current Division leaders (one each to Chicago and Boston). He has nine Quality Starts on the season.
He was added to the rotation to eat innings and keep the Twins in games. He has averaged 6 innings every start and the Twins have won 13 of those 20 starts.
We all love Liriano and want to see him get back to his old form. And if you genuinely believe he will hold up over the remaining 15ish starts that each SP has left in the season, ok. We’ll agree to disagree on that. But we’re already in almost unanimous agreement that the bullpen is being stretched to their limits. Is it really the smartest move to dump the guy most likely to be relied on to give that bullpen a little rest every few days?
Kay - yes, Christian is writing a blog - click on his name. It will take you to, yep, his baseball blog.
I regret to inform you that I will keep my current handle through the rest of the day, for consistency’s sake. You can avoid these unpleasant name-related situations in the future by being wrong less often.
Thank you for your time.
The only games that are ruined by broadcasters are ruined by Tim McCarver. All other ballgames are either enhanced or diminished by the broadcasters. I would say Morgan diminishes a boradcast, but Miller enhances it, so that’s a wash. Buck slightly diminishes a broadcast, but since it was already ruined by McCarver, his influence is moot. Hawk comes the closest to McCarver to ruining a broadcast.
Gladden comes close to Hawk on the radio. His voice is flat, but he chooses to emphasize things and not call things based on his favoritism of certain players, or lack there of. He certainly diminishes the game for me.
Gordo, well, I’ve come to expect about a dozen major corrections a game and a general rambling style on insignificant facts while the action plays out in front of him. He has always diminished the game for me, but now it’s more like the drunk uncle who embarrasses you, but in an endearing way.
I would say Bert is about neutral: He says as many things that annoy me as he says that enlighten me. My biggest pet peeve right now is “he left a pitch up”, as though the only pitches that ever result in hits were left up or there is no way to get a guy out on a pitch that was up.
I don’t have many problems with Dick. He’s solid. He has his share of biases, but he prepares and he calls the game straight. I’d say he enhances the game for me overall.
Sorry, but……A-Rod’s an A-hole.
FIRE VAVRA >>>> Joe Angel was the worst ever. “You can wave it ‘Bye-bye’!”
Cricket - unless Livan pitches a complete game the bullpen will still have to pitch innings 8 and 9 atleast and the 8th and 9th inning pitchers are the ones that have been worn out - Guerrier,Crain The Twins offense is not good enough to give the team enough “blowout” victories to use the mop up guys - BOOF and Bass Twins have played 50 1 or 2 run games out of 95 they rarely play in blowouts either way(for or against)
Walter every announcers has a HR call.. well except Gordo and Gladden they are usually talking about where they are going to eat after the game and have to suddenly pay attention when they hear the crowd start to buzz on a deep fly…
cmathewson said — “I say July 31 at the latest.”
That’s much too patient regarding Livan (although I agree with everything else cmath said).
I believe referencing is 1st half/2nd half splits is a canard to stir up hope. Didn’t the Twins start the year with a 9-1 record in Livan starts?
And yes I know the organization can look at his 9-6 record and in standard fashion because he’s a veteran say he’s performing to their anticipated results and being an innings eater and all. And I’m not totally alarmed by his 1st-half performance.
But I am alarmed as of late. His last 10 games have been atrocious, haven’t they? THAT’s the relevant stat here. And he ain’t gonna improve because of his age.
I think he should be on sort of a tandem leash with Liriano — go one game at a time with both of them. The first time Livan gets murdered while Liriano is still delivering at Rochester, then call Franchise up.
JimCrikket,
I understand your point about Livan, but here is the average IP/G for the starters:
Blackburn 6.3
Perkins 6.0
Livan 6.0
Baker 5.9
Slowey 5.9
So Livan is not particularly helping rest the pen any more or any less than the other starters.
we’re already in almost unanimous agreement that the bullpen is being stretched to their limits
I think that this is a misconception that is probably propagated by Gardy, in order to get what he wants.
Here are the numbers:
Projected IP by end of 2008 season for the top 7 relievers
Bass: 96
Crain: 64
Guerrier: 86
Reyes: 44
Nathan: 66
Breslow: 33
Bonser:137 (-66 as a starter)=71
total: 460
actual IP in the 2006 season (the last winning season) by the top 7:
Nathan 68.3
Rincon: 74.3
Crain: 76.7
Reyes: 50.7
Eyre: 59.3
Guerrier: 70
Lohse: 64
total: 463.3
If anything, the pen is stretched as much as it was stretched in ‘06, plus this season the total number of IP by the top 7 of the pen would probably be less than 460, given the Sept call ups.
Yeah Kay, that was me that posted a reliever is more important than 3B a couple days ago. (A broken clock etc…..)
“You can avoid these unpleasant name-related situations in the future by being wrong less often.” Not sure what that has to do with your insistence on using a purposefully confusing handle on here, or what have I have frequently been wrong about today. If consistency is your goal, then pick a name that is uniquely yours and stick with it.
I agree with all of T-Mouse….EXCEPT a team like Texas would snatch up the Boof on waivers in a heartbeat.
Look, “The blogger formerly known as Kay…….” IS a unique handle. And I’m sticking with it (through today, anyhow).
Since you asked, you were certainly wrong about Christian not writing a baseball blog - he does. And, you were wrong that Punto often “hotdogs routine plays and ends up blowing a simple play.”
I could probably find others, but well, that would just be mean.
I’m not a Livan fan. That said, there is something misleading about averages. They tend to wash out the good and the bad. Livan has been either really good, or really, really bad (though I think he is trending worse….) (also, you can only go to zero for an ERA, but you can keep going higher and higer, so a few bad starts can really offset good starts when it comes to averages) (same think with hitters - I often wonder if the Twins are consistent game to game, or if they just kill a pitcher when he is down and so their averages are higher this year {average runs scored, hits…). If Livan can give the Twins 50+% good starts, I’d say keep him in the rotation.
Now, I do think Liriano is a better option right now, but I worry about anyone’s first season back from surgery and the number of pitches he throws. That said, if they let him start in the minors, they may as well let him start in the majors. It’s not like he won’t still be throwing pitches. IF (big IF) they can move him to the pen and not hurt his arm (I’d think he’d overthrow there….), then a pen move for him might make sense on several levels. But, they need to make a decision. Having him start in the minors is just as tough on his arm as starting in the majors - and he’s better than Livan right now.
“His last 10 games have been atrocious, haven’t they?”
Sure, if you consider the 3 QS out of his last 5 games, 2 of which were games where he gave up 1 ER in 7 IP to be atrocious.
Look, I’m not saying Livan is some kind of pitching god. I’m saying he’s performing at levels pretty much hoped for when he was brought in… and it could be MUCH worse (see: Silva, Carlos). If you dump him to make room for Liriano (and I’m sorry but bringing Cisco up to pitch from the pen makes no sense to me at all), what’s your backup plan if he fails or re-injures that arm? (And seriously… how confident are you REALLY that neither of those will happen over 15 starts? Even if you are, how confident are you that all FIVE young starters will stay healthy/productive?)
Keeping Livan unless/until he implodes means you have six legitimate starting pitchers to get through the rest of the season. I just don’t see the sense in trimming that number to five.
Why does bringing him up to pitch from the pen make no sense at all? If you think it will retard his growth/recovery as a starter, that is valid. But, I’m not sure that is true, and wear and tear is wear and tear, in Minn or in Rochester.
“I could probably find others…” Go ahead. As I have comments, under the same name, going waaaaay back (as Dick would say), I am sure if you had the time to waste you probably could find statements that I made that later turned out to be wrong. I don’t claim to know all, like yourself.
However, to the extent that you think LNP does not hotdog and has not blown routine plays because of it, you are wrong. To the extent you think he is our BEST fielder, you are wrong. To the extent you think Howard wants you commenting on another blogger’s blog here, you are wrong. If you had posted for more than 1/2 a day, I could probably find others, but that would be a waste of time.
JimCrikket, thanks for the reminder of Livan’s last 3 games. My leash on him just got longer.
But if he remains inconsistent and continues to only accomplish 6.0 innings per start, I still think it’s time for Liriano to join the Span and Casilla launching pad of 2008.
Kay,
Good job!
I would say that you have just neutered Ben (the blogger formerly.., Kay) sufficiently that he can now go back to his original “Kay” moniker.
mike, it makes no sense to me to put him in the pen because he’s your 6th starter… if someone gets hurt or starts to significantly underperform, you’re going to need Liriano to step in immediately. His chances of success are much greater if he’s been starting every 5 days and is consistently going 6ish innings. If he’s in the Minn bullpen, he won’t be doing either. He’ll be pitching an inning here or there and when you need him to become a starter again, you’ll have to “stretch him out” all over again.
Part of his problem before was throwing strikes consistently. It appears he’s now overcoming that problem. I want him continuing to work on pacing himself, pitching several good innings every few days and throwing strikes from the first inning through the 6th or 7th. I don’t want him to adjust to throwing hard for an inning or two and being done.
well said Kay if this rube had been reading more then a day’s worth of this blog they would know most of us think LNP is substandard and stats prove he has blown plays - his fielding % this year is less then Harris’s!!
Reasonable argument. Here’s the other side.
Suppose no one gets hurt or falters, and the Twins leave him in AAA and continue to struggle with their pen? You don’t get a chance to win it all every year (except the RedSox, apparently), so when you have that chance, I say go for it. It’s like saving Nathan for the save, and not having him face the numbers 3, 4, 5 hitters in the 8th inning. That is bad strategy. I think keeping Liriano in the minors IN CASE something else goes wrong is playing not to lose, instead of playing to win. I say play to win.
romer, I have every belief that Liriano WILL get several starts for the Twins over the next three months. When is the last three month stretch you can remember when the Twins didn’t need a 6th starter?
We’re relying on four guys with very limited major league experience and one guy who makes his living “living on the edge” every start. Now I may HOPE all five are productive and healthy through the end of the season, but realistically, I’m skeptical. IF that happens, then at the very least, Liriano comes up Sept 1 and THEN you can put whoever your least effective starter is in the bullpen. GO with the 5 kids and let Livan be your long reliever/emergency starter.
I think it’s a blessing to have Liriano coming back in to form just when we’re most likely to need him. I just think it would be premature to scrap Livan in order to make room for Liriano right now.
T…
Don’t know what more to add; we disagree vigorously on DnB’s homerism / propaganda versus that of Hawk and DJ.
Hawk has his little sayings (which I actually think are cool), like “he gone”…but generally he is mild-mannered, doesn’t get overly excited, has lots of good things to say about the opposition, and does not whine the way you claim. I’m not seeing that…yes he’s a homer (let’s dismiss this–every local broadcaster is a homer to some degree), but Hawk doesn’t mind telling it like it is.
The main thing is Hawk lets the game call itself. He doesn’t get in the way–except for a HR, which is the most exciting play in baseball…he “puts it on the board”…no different than Gordo’s “touch ‘em all”…I don’t mind it. I do mind, however, calling a flyball out as though it was an upper-deck shot.
Interesting discussion to say the least…
The Twins in my opinion have two huge prblems looming as we head in to the break.Bullpen help and a RH hitter to protect Morneau.
Obviously the bullpen was close to collapsing this weekend in Detroit.The break couldn’t have come at a better time.But with a starting staff that is 4/5 untested as far as second half performance goes,there has to be another quality arm added that Gardenhire can depend on.I agree with T that the dead weight that is Boof and th a lesser extent Bass, needs to be trimmed.The Twins will collapse if they have to rely solely on Crain and Guerrier bridging the gap to Nathan.
I’m going to think out side the box a little bit here.Barring a trade (which I would prefer, only if its a quality arm that is obtained)The Twins might be able to find that arm within the current staff.
Assuming the Twins keep Livan in the rotation,bring up Liraino and put one of the youngsters in the pen for the rest of the year.My candidate would be Slowey.In my opinion he has been the least consistant of the three (Perkins,Blackburn,Slowey)although at times he has also been the best of the three.But his stuff seems perfectly suited for a short one or two inning outing.His control is great.When he gets in trouble, it is the second or third time through a tough line up.barring a trade,a second half rotation of Baker,Liriano,Blackburn,Perkins,and Hernandez.A bullpen of Bass (long relief only)Breslow,Slowey,Reyes,Crain,Guerrier,and Nathan.
As far as protection for Morneau,I think the Twins would like to think that Cuddyear could be the answer,but realistically I don’t think thats possible this year.I think he will return,but play hurt most of the year.This will insure Spans roster spot for the rest of the year,hopefully at Lambs expense.I am encouraged that the Twins have admtted having talks with Seattle about Beltre.Tha fact that they are willing to talk about a guy making his kind of money,for next year also,tells me they are serious about giving it a run this year.At any rate if they don’t find a RH power source to protect Morneau,what we saw from Leyland this weekend (4 intentional walks to Morneau)will become the norm.And the Twins offense won’t be able to score enough runs to compete.
Neutered? Never!
Look Kay, let’s stop this petty bickering. Let’s just agree that we’re both very wrong, very often. Just like everyone on these nonsensical postboards, which are largely filled with knee-jerk reactionists, loudmouths, and instigators.
Still, it’s as good a way as any to pass the time, I suppose.
I still contend Punto is our best fielder at the 2B/SS/3B position. I’d consider Casilla, but I don’t think he’s far enough removed from last year’s streak of errors and fielding gaffes to give it to him just yet. Love his range though.
I’m Confused. Why has Livan been so good the last three games again? here are his numbers in his last two starts:
10.1 IP 7.84 ERA 16H 9ER 2HR 3BB 6SO
That’s not eating innings. That’s not giving the team a chance to win. That’s not hard luck. That’s just poor pitching. One more of those and another dominating performance by Liriano and the dull roar you hear calling for a change will become deafening. It’s only a matter of time. Whey not start taking offers for Livan now? I’m sure they’re on the phones.
JimCrikket
“and it could be MUCH worse (see: Silva, Carlos). ”
The only way it is worse is the fact that Silva is making more money. Other than that - he is a better pitcher than Livan Hernandez.
They have nearly an identical ERA while Livan has a much higher WHIP. Hitters against Livan are having a much better season.
Also, Silva has gotten much less run support than Livan. In games in which they received no decisions, Carlos Silva has an ERA of 3.34, while Livan Hernandez has an ERA of 7.06.
Neither pitcher is good - they both give up a ton of hits, and therefore, a ton of runs. But to say it would be worse with Silva is a mistake, in my opinion.
FIRE VAVRA & GARDY!!!! —
Fielding percentage is not the true measure of defensive skill. And I would never allow “what most of you think” to sway opinion. Punto’s played his way into the starting SS spot. You like Harris there?
FIRST-HALF JOY:
*Incredibly, the Twins are a premier player in the WC race in addition to being a GAME(and a half) out.
*Perkins has a better ERA than 2 of the 5 starters (Slowey, Senior…) and has lost only 2 games.
*The Red guy with a .279 BA. Only 68 AB’s. But this time I’ll use an ironic twist and say the sample size is too low and that that BA will GO UP.
*Big Nick Punto’s .383 OBP, which — with no ironic twist this time — will come down.
*Macri/Buscher. Hey, ya wanna 3B who hits above .300 with some pop in his bat? (They’re hitting a combined .336)
*Mr. H. SINKER about to display on the radio tomorrow his rare form of approaching sarcasm only to hold back at the last instant and instead delivering a stunning load of realism. (Kind of a like a Fourth of July boomer that goes and goes until it finally reaches the top only to give us a little poof and prettiness and everyone can go “Auhhh”.)
:)>
LOL ” Punto’s played his way into the starting SS spot. ” LOL LOL
you meant to say Gardy’s mancrush put him in the starting SS spot.. right now I would make Harris/Punto/Buscher play platoon in 3rd and SS spots until Punto hurts himself sliding into 1st on a routine ground ball again.. yes Punto has hit better this year.. but his DEF has regressed a bit, and his base running gaffes are inexcusable for a veteran player
Just looked at the stats for the starters. Wow, Baker and Perkins have been amazing the last 7 starts or so. Baker has been mostly dominant, and Perkins has given up 3 or less runs in each of his last 7 starts. Why anyone would move him to the pen is confusing to say the least. Livan has 3 good starts in his last 10, hardly encouraging.
Say what you will about Punto, and like everyone, I was disgusted with him last year. But as long as he’s producing at the plate (which is FAR from guaranteed), he’s our best SS option. Don’t understate how clutch he’s been since returning. 1.152 OPS in July; 10 RBI’s. Only 39 ABs, but still, he’s helping us right now.
I agree that DickNBert are not the worst announcers. That honor goes to McCarver. Still, even a little less homerism from them would be refreshing.
Bennie: “Let’s just agree that we’re both very wrong, very often.” Well, I agree I am occasionally wrong, but I wouldn’t say I am very wrong very often. And since you just showed up today….
“Just like everyone on these nonsensical postboards, which are largely filled with knee-jerk reactionists, loudmouths, and instigators.” I disagree. While some of that certainly occurs, many of the regular posters on LIII’s, Joe,’s, Howard’s and some of the other Strib baseball blogger sites are quite knowledgeable, clearly love and follow the game and offer a lot of insight.
“I still contend Punto is our best fielder at the 2B/SS/3B position.”
Based on what exactly (since you don’t believe fielding percentage is a valid indicator) the no. of webgem highlights?
See, thats the wonder of statistics. mike can point out Livan’s had a less than impressive last 10 games. I can point out he’s had 3 QS in his past 5 games. cmath can cast aspersions on his last 3 games. Pete can isolate “no decision” games to make a case that Silva has done better than Livan (and I can conveniently point out that while both pitchers had good Aprils, since May 1, Livan has had an ERA a full 1.40 runs less than Silva and has had five starts where he gave up 1 or fewer ERs, while Silva hasn/t managed to do that at all in the same period).
I’ve formed by opinion by watching the majority of Twins games since Punto’s been on the squad.
So, you think Buscher plays a better 3B? Harris a better SS? Come on. You’re just looking for things to argue about because you dislike me. You and your silly little club of “regulars.” And make no mistake - I may not post often, but I read these comment boards daily. I’m not the newbie you think I am.
Mike- Who suggested Perkins to the pen?I suggested Slowey, only if the Twins don’t find a quality bullpen guy on the trading market.The bullpen needs another arm one way or another.
BTW, Howard, please feel free to use any of my observations without reference at any time! (Or any other poster’s for that matter…..facts are FACTS.)
But if you do reference ‘em on MPR, tell ‘em I’m from Tracy.
Shameless regards,
Romer
Agreed on stats, jim. They are wonderful tools, but that is all they are. You still need good judgement to determine how to use the information they provide.
That’s one reason I’d like to find more stats that break each individual game performance out. There are just some games where a pitcher has it, and some he does not. Averaging each game together implies that an inning is an inning is an inning. That clearly is not true.
I thought I saw that about perkins, but I’ve been on vacation for two weeks and trying to work and catch up on Twins news at the same time - well, let’s just say that neither activity is probably as productive as normal.
I just believe strongly that the Twins have the benefit of currently having six legitimate Major League starting pitchers available. Bouncing a guy back and forth between pen and rotation seldom works out well. A six man rotation means you have one less bullpen arm (or bench bat) and that’s very problematic. So one of the six pitches in Rochester until he’s needed. For now, that’s Liriano, and I don’t think any other option makes sense.
You don’t release Livan and you don’t trade him for low prospects because you’d also be trading the draft pick(s) you’re likely to get in compensation for him when he leaves after the season.
It would be so easy if the only consideration was figuring out who your best 5 SPs at any given point in time are and putting them in the rotation. It’s just not that simple. You have to figure out what gives you the greatest advantage over the course of the next 3 months.
The blogger…,
“silly little club of “regulars.””
We prefer to be called “the jobless”.
That’s one reason I’d like to find more stats that break each individual game performance out. There are just some games where a pitcher has it, and some he does not. Averaging each game together implies that an inning is an inning is an inning. That clearly is not true.
Check out WPA on Fangraphs, you can see individual game contributions if you look at a player’s game log.
I don;t think Livan would give the Twins any compensation he is a free agent after this year and his last 2 years are not in the “A” group I believe there are no “B” group compensation players anymore - Silva was not good enough to give the Twins a draft pick Livan sure won’t be
“jobless” ?? only if my boss catches me commenting on a blog!!
Crikket-
I don’t think you are “bouncing a guy back and forth” if you make it a perminant move for this year only.As I stated,I would much prefer to see the Twins bolster the pen with a trade,but at what price? I also feel Liriano has eearned a chance.It’s simply one way to make the staff as a whole better IMO.The entire staff as it stands now won’t, in my opinion,hold up down the stretch of a pennant race.
Mike wants wins at 3:01 — “…so when you have that chance, I say go for it.”
I believe that’s what JimCrikket is saying too. You need that 6th starter ready to go so you can “go for it” down the stretch.
So……you, he, and I have converged on a winning strategy.
Now for that new reliever…….
FIRE, I’m relying on having read somewhere that Livan almost certainly WOULD bring the compensation based on his year with AZ last year and this year with Minnesota. I don’t recall where or how that conclusion was arrived at. I do understand the risks of relying on others’ projections, but I’m so far away from being an expert on what determines those “groups” that I tend to take people at their word. Given that I rarely wander too far away from the more reliable Twins blogs, I would tend to think it came from one of the more established of such blogs. That said, I don’t think it would take much for Livan to be better than Silva was in his two seasons prior to Free Agency. He was bad last year and gawdawful in ‘06 (even worse than he’s been this year).
Doug Munson, interesting Slowey-to-the-BP idea. But I wouldn’t wanna mess around with his budding career by giving him the dual opportunity of failing in the pen and losing his learning curve process as a starter.
AND, Crikket is dead-on with his prediction of the normal need for a 6th starter coming sometime down the stretch. Slowey coming back from the pen would take 2-3 games to get up and running at full-length again.
Silva wasn’t bad last year. He didn’t shine, but he was okay. He got screwed on run support too.
Do I think Harris is the better starting SS option? Yes. Defensively he has played well and he and Casilla made a nice DP team. He does not showboat his defense, he just plays solidly. I know you hate stats, but so far on the year at SS, Harris - 39 games, 3 errors; Punto - 22 games, also 3 errors. Harris’ offensive numbers are good and he has shown the ability to hit the occasional long ball. Also, when he gets on base, he generally stays there instead of getting thrown out on a stupid baserunning error - LNP is not a rookie, he should not be making these kind of gaffes. And as much he loves him, even Gardy does not trust him any more to lay down a bunt when one is needed. So yeah, I prefer Harris to start, Punto to come off the bench.
My little club of regulars? That’s funny.
romer,Like I said it’s thinking outside the box.I would much prefer the Twins to add a proven late innings guy.But I don’t think you stunt Sloweys growth with half a season in the pen.Only if he takes it as a demotion instead of away to help the team.I happen to think his stuff is suited fot an inning or two.I think he would be great in that roll, short term.
Yeah, Doug, if we agree that the staff isn’t going to hold up down the stretch (which we appear to do), I can’t see moving any of the starters to the pen. But I won’t belabor that point further.
romer, I’m all for getting a solid set up guy (not to mention a power hitting 3B). But if Smith DOES pick up either one of those (or both), I can almost guarantee the experts around here are going to wail about how he overpaid for him(them). Every “proposal” I read seems to assume we’re going to get Street and/or Beltre for a package of guys that have underperformed all year for the Twins.
I’m not saying the Twins shouldn’t go for it… but we need to be realistic and accept that the price to be paid is going to hurt. Take a look at the best prospects in the organization and count on many of them no longer being there after any trade to bring in a real contributor.
OK maybe I was rough on Silva by saying he was bad last year. I’ve never been a big fan. After the Twins gave up on the year at the trade deadline, he actually pitched pretty well. But my memory focuses on some of the really awful starts he had when it mattered in the first half of the season. Fortunately, for him, he was able to parlay that nice second half in to a payday that sets himself (and the next several generations of Silvas) up for life. And fortunately for us, it’s not going to be Pohlad’s money.
Kay, I agree with you. But Gardy will play the hot hand, and I’m OK with that. When Punto was healthy and hot, I was OK with his play. But when he cools off, Harris should start. And when Tolbert comes back, if he gets a chance and gets hot, he should start. That’s the way of it.
A quality but not great middle man might not cost as much as a guy with Streets rep.What the Twins need is someone to pitch the odd sixth and sometimes seventh inning,keeping Crain and Guerrier fairly fresh.I think those two can do the job if not abused.
The bat to protect Morneau is going to cost the Twins.Even Beltre, who I’m sure the M’s are trying to un load to save money,won’t come cheap.
Jim
I’m pretty confident you are incorrect in your belief that Livan would bring draft picks. Did we lose any draft picks for signing him? No.
I’m not advocating trading Livan just yet, but Ortiz did bring us a decent prospect in Macri.
As far as punto goes. Anyone who is a regular on these blogs know my position on him.
Punto did not “earn” his SS position. The Twins were on an incredible run when Punto came off the DL. And Harris had been key in that run, helping win two games in San Diego all while playing solid defense at SS. Punto has performed well, very well in fact. But even though both the team and Harris at SS were playing well, Punto was “given” the SS positon. Also he is not our best infielder. Both Casilla’s range and arm are FAR SUPERIOR to punto’s.
Punto before this season was an inferior hitting, versatile, average defensive player. If he continues to play well and contributes to the team winning I have nothing against him playing. Based on his history of over 1500 ABs I just don’t see that happening. And for all those that gush over his veteran play, his blunders on the base paths recently were atrocious!! Similar to him being unable to get a bunt down last year!!
Just checking in..
PS - Hit pretty well and way back there!
he “puts it on the board”…no different than Gordo’s “touch ‘em all”…
I hate catchphrases period. At least those tied to a specific event (K, HR, etc)
Especially when (in the case of Hawk or Gladden) they use them ALL THE TIME.
Dick’s HR calls usually feel far more spontaneous (”GONE!” being the only common word I can think of).
Catchphrases for certain game-related events seem to take away the significance of the event. Imagine if EVERY walk-off homer was tagged with “We’ll see you tomorrow night!” or if an annoucer yelled “Do you believe in Miracles!” after every upset.
Not to mention that a catchphrase tagged on in a losing effort (solo home run to turn the game from 10-0 to 10-1) just seems really tacky.
And while Hawk can usually say fairly mild-mannered during opposing highlights, he usually wigs out like a fan when “his guys” are on the happy side. DnB usually seem pretty even on the emotion for good plays. (THough they will go over for a big Twins play)
The one good thing about Punto having a timely career couple of weeks (other than the obvious that it helps the Twins to win) is that he actually might have some trade value for a team like the Dodgers right now…
As far as the pen goes, it does not make sense to put any of the current starters (esp. Slowey who with Baker are front of the rotation pitchers). If Liriano comes up he would be in the rotation and that would mean that Livan would be traded. If Bonser and Bass go, Korecky would be an obvious choice for one of the spots. Thinking outside the box, I believe that the Twins should fast track Delaney and Slama. Delaney has been lights out at every level this year (AA: 1.29 ERA 0.64 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 16K/BB; A+: 1.42 ERA 0.88 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 8.5 K/BB) and Slama has been dominant at Ft. Myers (0.73 ERA 0.87 WHIP, 14.6K/9, 5.7 K/BB) These are pre-surgery Liriano-like numbers…. Worse case scenario if these 2 take Bass’ and Boof’s place is that they would perform as bad as Bass and Boof, but the likelihood that they will be dominant is higher
JP, I’m certain Livan wasnt a Type A Free Agent, so Minn certainly didn’t lose a pick for him. I’m not so sure AZ didn’t get a Type B compensatory pick, though. I’m sure that information is out there somewhere. If I get ambitious, I’ll go check it out.
Wow… didn’t have to be all that ambitious after all. With the 43rd pick in the amatuer draft, Arizona selected LHP Wade Miley as a compensation pick for Livan Hernandez. So he WAS a Type B FA after last season. If his numbers hold up anything near what he’s done so far, I would imagine he would have a good chance at generating another such pick after this season.
Really? Thanks Jim. I’m surprised they got anything for him! And that we didn’t get anything for Silva. As one blogger posted, they are trying to do away with Type B free agents not sure if thats the case or where that stands. And if the twins can get a player who has a track record and someone they like, ie Macri, for him I think that is better anyways. But thanks for checking that. Learn something new everyday.
“…Crain and Guerrier fairly fresh.I think those two can do the job if not abused.”
“…Crain and Guerrier fairly fresh.I think those two can do the job if not abused.”
I don’t have that much confidence in Crain. He isn’t throwing his sharp slider anymore. Maybe he was just tired and it’ll come back.
Howard, that column mirrored my thoughts precisely. So far, the Twins have been amazing — especially Casilla and Blackburn. All credit to the managers for always patching together a fun team to watch. Art Cullen, Storm Lake, Iowa
“romer, I’m all for getting a solid set up guy (not to mention a power hitting 3B). But if Smith DOES pick up either one of those (or both), I can almost guarantee the experts around here are going to wail about how he overpaid…”
Perhaps rightfully so. This team has no starter that is a long-innings playoff type. I don’t see much of a chance in the playoffs for this team if and when. So it’s no time to bust the bank and daringly lose prospects.
Yet 3B isn’t solved long-term by any means (mainly because of Buscher’s D). Acquiring Beltre would be about next year as much as this year.
And if it takes Boof/Humber/Buscher, that’s okay with me……BECAUSE
I’m changing my mind about getting a relief pitcher. I presumed Boof may have been needed to get a quality one. Then that may make it impossible to get Beltre.
Since playoff chances aren’t that good for the Twins, concentrate on 2009 and get Beltre. And 2009 is when Neshek will be back, and we’ll still have our prospects.
But I suppose if they could trade Livan for a setup man better than Korecki AND get Beltre, then we’d have a very decent chance on at least making the playoffs.
And IF Liriano is the lights out Franchise again, then he and Baker could comprise two playoff type pitchers. (Baker couldn’t carry the weight by himself.)
Hi there, Art. Do you know the very old Verne Campbell (my great uncle)?
I live in the Lake Shetek area in Minnesota. Storm Lake is a clean and rare Iowa Lake. Wish Lake Shetek would get dredged and cleaned like they did Storm Lake.
Enjoy the AS game!
JimCrikket,
Only time is gonna tell which position is right here. But to my Bill-Jamesian eye, all the data points to troubled waters ahead for Livan Hernandez.
He is now an older pitcher. Over the first half of this season, he’s put up his worst aggregate numbers ever. Date back through last season and you see much of the same — real trouble getting outs, real trouble keeping scores down.
The “inning eater” claim is only plausible to me if he keeps the team in the game (otherwise, sign T-Mouse up for $120,000 per year and I’ll give you a few hundred innings). He has to eat innings that keep us in games.
One thing I believe your stats overlook is the simple fact that when the Twins put up huge run counts for Livan, it is far easier for him (or anyone else) to pitch. He can throw strikes while the opposing team has to look for walks and “get on base” at-bats. Give T-Mouse a 6-run lead by the third inning, and I’ll give you seven good innings, too.
One scenario that hasn’t been discussed is the one T-Mouse said he’d be willing to settle for. Namely, that Senor Smoke-less goes to the bullpen for longer relief. There he can eat up some innings, give Liriano the slot to get going, yet be available in case we need a fill-in starter (re: injuries).
Most major league teams are unwilling to look at the hard realities of this great game. Billy Beane obviously stands out (I think the Harden trade was brilliant). He knows the limitations of the hands he gets dealt. I am worried — when I hear our front office say this team is “fine as is” — that our young leadership doesn’t accept that we have to be statistical, decisive, and relentless in our pursuit of excellence.
Leaving Livan in a starting role, with Lamb occasionally DHing, Bass coming in with score tied in Fenway, Boof dragging down the pen, and excited about Adam Everett’s return. . . these are major no-nos if we want to make a legitimate pennant run this year.
T-Mouse (in da house)
The Twins have been playing well,not much to be critical about(darn,right Fire).It’s come down to ripping the broadcast teams.Of course they are somewhat”homers”,they are payed by the Twins for heaven sakes.Can you imagine Fire doing play by play!I guess it comes down to having a balanced approach!
The trends don’t favor Livan, especially as teams see him for the second and third time this year. The last three years, we’ve seen a steady decline. The first half of this year continues the trends. If the trends continue, we’re in for some stormy weather. Folks in the left field bleachers better duck and cover.
T-Mouse — “Leaving Livan in a starting role, with Lamb occasionally DHing, Bass coming in with score tied in Fenway, Boof dragging down the pen, and excited about Adam Everett’s return. . . these are major no-nos if we want to make a legitimate pennant run this year.”
Time for some decisive moves. Wouldn’t it be nice to not have to rely on any of the above five players anymore?
It’s time for Round 2 of the Bill Smith leadership era.
