That’s pretty much how I’m feeling about the Twins season so far.

These final 2 1/2 months hold more promise than I would have thought back on that night in March when we trudged through the snow and watched the opener. From what I can tell from the national media, the team has changed its nickname to “the surprising Twins.” Kind of like “the disappointing Indians” and “the slumping Rays.”

That pretty much says everything, but you’re probably expecting a bit more. So here goes:

When I browse the statistics going into the All-Star break, the subtle thing that stands out to me is how the first- and second-year pitchers in the rotation — Slowey/Baker/Blackburn/Perkins — are a combined 25-15. That’s 10 games over .500 for a team that’s 11 over. While there have been slip-ups along the way (Slowey’s last two starts and the four-dinger start against Milwaukee by Blackburn a couple of weekends back, for examples), these guys have improved faster than I expected. They’ve more than made up for the Boof disappointment.

And the Livan thing. His 9-6 record defies explanation based on the rest of his stats and because of all the chatter about how he’d be the most replaceable if the Twins call up Liriano, I asked someone close to the team about the whole “good influence on younger pitchers issue” that is associated with Senor Smoke Free. I’m typically skeptical about that sort of thing, which was the reason I asked.

Here’s what I was told: “Slowey raves about him. Baker, I think, has learned to compose himself mid-inning better because of Livan. Blackburn, I’m not sure. Livan impresses me as one of my favorite thinking man’s pitchers. … Still, I do see where too much can be made of it.”

In other words, don’t dismiss the hype but don’t get carried away with it, either. I heard Livan say in an interview recently that he’s typically been a better second-half pitcher. I checked the career numbers, which showed that he has a 4.56 ERA in the first half of the season compared with 3.99 in the second half. He’s also put on 2,080 runners in 1,382 first-half innings (1.51 per inning) over his career and 1,495 in 1,110 second-half innings (1.34).

I keep him.

In the bullpen, I’ll repeat what I said over the weekend: another arm is needed to get Nathan/Guerrier/Crain from becoming toast later in the season. All three of them gutted their way through the Detroit series in a way that worked because Gardy could look ahead to the four-day All Star break. Brian Bass isn’t that guy and showed it again yesterday. In the games when he’s entered in the seventh inning or later, Bass has a 7.32 ERA in about 20 innings.

There will be arms available and the Twins need one.

That being said, aside from the actual on-field performance from the team’s stars and from those who are surprising us with their ability, the thing that impresses me the most is the knack that Gardy and Bill Smith have shown for putting people in the right spots. Whether it was knowing when to bring Perkins into the rotation (and keep him there) or when to get Blackburn a bit extra rest or making the right moves about who to play and where to play ‘em (Casilla, Punto, Harris, Buscher, Young, Kubel, Span and Tolbert are on that list), I’m impressed by the way the human chess game has played out.

Sure, Lamb and Everett are moves that didn’t need to be made, but I can hear the hollering if the Twins had started the season with Buscher/Macri/Harris at third base and Punto/Harris/Tolbert at shortstop. You can hear it too, I’ll bet. Way to sit on your hands, Bill Smith.

(I’m not understanding the Gomez still batting leadoff thing. Gardy’s explanation doesn’t sway me, but I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt here. And to Gomez’ credit, he has not taken the offensive problems into center field with him, where he continues to cover ground in unprecedented-in-Minnesota fashion. Sorry, Torii. It’s certainly better than the current mess in Detroit, where Smoky Leyland found out that Carlos Guillen couldn’t play first base after the Cabrera trade and now pretty much has two infielders out of position, among other problems.)

Now we’ve reached a well-earned break. I’m up for watching the Twins’ All-Star contingent and I’m OK with all the hype about the last All-Star Game in Yankee Stadium because you can’t overstate how special a place it has been in our sports history. And having it happen now is a whole lot better than having it happen during the postseason! Time to gear down and prepare for a second half that right now carries more meaning for 2008 than 2010.

Would never have guessed.

A “programming note.” I’ll be on MPR’s Midday program with Gary Eichten at noon Tuesday. It’s at 91.1 FM and on the web at www.mpr.org. It’s a call-in and e-mail show.

other people are here too

This entry was posted on Monday, July 14th, 2008 at 8:33 am and is filed under Thoughts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.