Location, location, location
Posted on August 29th, 2008 – 9:15 AMBy Howard
Execution, execution, execution.
Yes, it’s a morning where 1 1/2 games out feels like 11 1/2. I’m hoping/expecting this too shall pass.
Joe C. blogged in the wee hours about Gardy’s usual lack of flexibility in using Joe Nathan — and I understand the tie-game/ninth-inning/home-road thing. But it felt like last night was a ninth to put in Nathan’s hands, which is too easy to say after the fact. In a 7-7 game, if Gardy could have felt fairly confident that the Twins would score in the 10th, would he have been more likely to go that way?
But the Twins offense hasn’t done much to inspire confidence on this trip. In the seventh, when the Twins tied the game at 2, it really was reasonable to expect more than one run from a second and third/one out situation with three/four/five coming up. Walk/sac fly/ground out was a disappointment.
The other option was keeping Boof in the game. He’d only thrown 13 pitches to that point.
Here’s the bigger picture: When a reliever with Crain’s stuff — mid-90s fastball, good slider, sweet slow curve — has multiple failures in tense situations, it’s not about the arm. Last night, Crain simply didn’t locate his pitches to Emil Brown and Curt Suzuki. One walk and one sat-on fastball and the Twins had another painful loss against a weak team.
In his blog, LaVelle points out that Mauer has one extra-base hit in his last 40 AB’s and Morneau, while hitting the ball hard, is expanding his strike zone. (He also points out that Punto has raised his average from .256 to .293 since August 10.) LaVelle writes: The lads need to calm down and let their hitting talents show. They are good enough to hit good pitching.
Not much else constructive to add here. Oakland’s starting a winless guy with horrible numbers tonight against Slowey. The lads should be good enough to hit that kind of pitching too.
other people are here too
72 Responses to "Location, location, location"
I certainly think Boof showed glimpses of a pitcher who can be used as a late inning guy instead of Crain last night.
Howard it boggles my mind how the Twins always seem to struggle against mediocre pitchers or pitchers they’ve never faced before. The Twins are playing with my emotions right now and better be very careful because my first love (football) has been sending me love notes again.
Crains last 3 outings have resulted in Twins loses, something needs to change! twins cannot afford to keep losing like this in games they must win against teams they are suposed to win against!!! i understand Gardy’s decision to keep Nathan out of the game but you have to put someone in there that you know will A. Throw Stikes, and B. HIT HIS SPOTS, and Crain has PROVEN that he can not do much of either! these games are too valuable to blow like this!! yes the offense should have scored more runs but come on!!!
Boof in August has a 2.63 ERA and opponents are hitting .231 off him. He always had the stuff, he just seemed to self destruct as a starter. Starters usually make a successful transition to relief work during the off-season. It takes time to transition. Boof worked it out in 2 months. His future is in the bullpen and if he knows his role and prepares for it properly he will be successful. Next year he could be a very good 8th inning guy, but Gardy should give him some chances now…
It is interesting that the one perceived strength of this team before the season started, the bullpen, had a major overhaul during the season and needs an even bigger during the off-season…
Good news for the end of the road trip. Noted Twin Killer Matt (I could stand to go up some) Stairs has been traded by Toronto.
When a reliever with Crain’s stuff — mid-90s fastball, good slider, sweet slow curve — has multiple failures in tense situations, it’s not about the arm.
I disagree. Crain is coming off arm surgery and his mechanics are not consistent. This leads to walks and poorly-spotted pitches. See also Liriano, Francisco earlier this season. Don’t be surprised if Crain is put on the DL.
once Crain tries to go Matsuzaka, i should just shut it off. When ya got a guy 0-2, throw a high fastball and let em swing under it once or twice!
The G-Man of little canada thinks he doesn’t have to bring in Nathan in the 9th just b/c he’s playing the Oakland AAA’s. Sorry about my ranting, but nobody else I know cares about it as much and the blog can’t ignore me so, why don’t you, in every situation in a late, close game, barring too many innings pitched considerations maybe, bring in your best available reliever and worry about the rest later. I would rather make a game of it as long as possible than lose a game in the 7th inning. What’s the point of a closer anyway if you can’t ever pitch well enough to get the ball to him? Not that this was the case last night, it was much more clear cut there. Nathan was available and they didn’t use him b/c G-man was counting his extra innings before they hatched.
It is interesting that the one perceived strength of this team before the season started, the bullpen, had a major overhaul during the season and needs an even bigger during the off-season…
I think everyone knew the loss of Neshek would have repercussions. I think what’s interesting is that the Twins were able to keep it from really biting them hard until several weeks after the injury. Part of the reason is that other teams have similar bullpen issues. The White Sox pen is held together with baler twine and DJ Carrasco. That won’t last, either.
Howard, you may need to resort to desperate measures and put the Section 220 squad back in the lineup today…
PS: I can’t wait for the first game Gardy uses Nathan in a tie situation, only to watch the bullpen blow the actual lead later on.
It’ll be fun to see people’s reactions. I bet you Gardy will still be a moron there too.
All Gardy needs to remember at this point is ABC… Anyone But Crain.
Maybe it’s the surgery. Maybe it’s his head. I don’t know, but this is NOT the Jesse Crain pre-injury and Gardy can’t keep using him like he’s that guy.
Come next Tuesday in Toronto, there will be a (literal) busload of other options arriving from Rochester. Just need to get through this weekend in Oakland without having to use Crain in another tight situation.
Oh… and yeah… you guys with the bats… SCORE SOME FRIGGIN RUNS, ALREADY!
I’m not sure if this is good news or bad news since they’re playing the Whities but if Beckett is done for the year the Twins WC chances look better.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ge-beckett082808&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
I bet you Gardy will still be a moron
sure bet
Maybe it’s the surgery. Maybe it’s his head. I don’t know, but this is NOT the Jesse Crain pre-injury and Gardy can’t keep using him like he’s that guy.
Until Tuesday, he has little alternative. But why wait until Tuesday? Put Crain on the DL and call up/add whomever is due to replace him next week a few days early.
In the seventh, when the Twins tied the game at 2, it really was reasonable to expect more than one run from a second and third/one out situation with three/four/five coming up. Walk/sac fly/ground out was a disappointment.
Thanks for mentioning the walk, Howard.
That did not go unnoticed last night by me either, especially after the daring double-steal. The walk was almost a downer. Granted, Joe did get on to load the bases ahead of the MVP, but that fastball on 3-2 that was a few inches low and down the middle (or the hanging inside curveball on 3-1) would have looked pretty nice as a line drive nestled between the center and right fielders.
PS: I can’t wait for the first game Gardy uses Nathan in a tie situation, only to watch the bullpen blow the actual lead later on.
Don’t you always rip on people for hoping certain Twins players fail?
Bass
68.1 (IP) 1.55 (WHIP) 4.87 (ERA)
Guerrier
66.1 1.48 4.61
Nathan
57.0 0.88 1.11
Crain
54.1 1.42 3.98
Reyes
37.2 1.14 2.39
Breslow
26.2 1.01 2.36
Here’s one suggestion as to why the bullpen has been bad - the worst reliever, Bass, who was cut from the team a week ago, STILL has the most innings pitched. STILL has more than 10 innings more pitched than the best reliever, Nathan, and nearly DOUBLE the innings that Reyes has, who statistically speaking is the next best reliever out of those who have been with the team all year. Breslow’s innings are obviously low b/c he’s only been with the team for a couple of months, so say what you will there, but his numbers are also very good. The two statistically worst relievers have the most innings pitched.
Alls I’m saying is, the relievers have been used this way b/c there is too much emphasis on the situational relief. I’m not advocating using Nathan until his arm falls off, but AT LEAST get him as many if not more innings pitched than BASS/GUERRIER. How many games have those two collectively lost the Twins this year in situations where Nathan could have been in there? Or even Reyes? Well they have been charged a combined 10 losses so far. Think where the Twins would be if they had even half of those wins back.
T says:
August 29th, 2008 at 10:24 am
PS: I can’t wait for the first game Gardy uses Nathan in a tie situation, only to watch the bullpen blow the actual lead later on.
glad to read you have such faith in the offense that you can’t believe they can score some runs and break the tie either enabling Nathan to get the save in his second inning of work or another reliever
Think where the Twins would be if they had even half of those wins back.
Think where the Twins would be if they had been forced to rely on Bass or Crain or even Reyes to close out the games Nathan has saved, because Joe had already been spent in the 8th or earlier.
Great night from Boof. The quality of his stuff is starting to match the quality of his outings. I’ve never liked his attitude but if he can stay on track and earn more trust from Gardenhire I’d love him as a setup man - that attitude would only be an asset. Our other guys certainly do not intimidate.
Granted, Joe did get on to load the bases ahead of the MVP, but that fastball on 3-2 that was a few inches low and down the middle (or the hanging inside curveball on 3-1) would have looked pretty nice as a line drive nestled between the center and right fielders.
Mauer has come full circle. Wasn’t that long ago he was getting ripped for swinging at the first pitch too often. Now, he gets it for not fishing at pitches outside the strike zone and setting up RBI situations for the erstwhile MVP and the following batters.
I’m just advocating shifting a little more of the work load to the better relievers. Its great for ESPN’s highlight reels when Nathan can come in there and get the save in the 9th and it all works out like its scripted and we ride off into the sunset, but in the current state of this bullpen, I think you get the win any way you can, and if that means going against the sacred baseball bullpen modus operendi than so be it. I’d rather lose a game in the 9th than short myself two innings b/c we’ve already lost it in the 7th. I think if you took games an inning at a time you’d have better results in the current state of things. Now, you have a solid Neshek back, you can substitute him for the 8th innings role and move Guerrier to mop up, thats a whole different story. At least then you’re equipped to maybe play out the baseball script and have your perfect endings, but they don’t have that. Desperate times people, desperate times….
“which is too easy to say after the fact”
I think a lot of us were calling for Nathan BEFORE the fact…
Gardy’s in a unique spot here…with his previous teams, this would never be an issue because we had a reliable bullpen (he would never use Nathan in the 9th of a tie game on the road).
Well, these aren’t the previous teams…this team has no reliable relievers other than Joe Nathan. I use him in the 9th and 10th and if you can’t win it by then, move on to the other guys…but that’s me…and that’s a first guess (not a second guess).
Other thoughts from last night…
Umm, our return of the 2007 offense continues, unfortunately. The fact that we don’t have a true No. 3 or No. 5 hitter is starting to catch up to us, once again. When will Joe Mauer’s next RBI come? (he’s had just 2 in his last 9 games and only 12 for the month of August).
But Mauer obviously isn’t the main issue and I don’t want to get that going again…a lot of you will be crying for more Kubel, and there’s probably a legitimate argument to be made there (recall, even I was saying that Kubel should play everday from here on out about 3 weeks or so…), but I’m not sure it isn’t merely 6 one way or 1/2 dozen the other…
What we need is a starter to step up with a big time outing (shutout through 8 innings or something). We know pitching hasn’t been the problem lately, but the bats have been hot all year and now would be a good time for a starter to pick this struggling offense up…
Other than that, there’s not much we can do…no help is on the way…we have to hope the lineup starts to gel and the bullpen tightens up dramatically.
I agree with Howard, too…1.5 games does feel like 11.5 suddenly…and that’s what happens when you fail to take the bull by the horn and grab first place for more than 36 hours at a time…
I have to disagree with JimCrikket when he says that Crain is not the same as he was before the surgery. He is exactly the same as he was in that he has, in the words of Pat Reusse, “nothing beneath the left nipple.
Some guys can pitch in those situations and some guys can’t (yes, I’m talking to you LaTroy Hawkins and Ron Davis).
I love the Twins, but I am of two minds about this team. They drive me crazy at times because they just seem to take games off (especially the bats) and then they go out the next game and win 13-1. On the other hand, when you look at the guys the Twins put on the field (Mauer, Morneau and Nathan excepted), it is absolutely astonishing that they are in the race.
I guess ultimately it comes down to the fact that the Pohlads are unbelievably cheap (if you believe that the team payroll is going to dramatically increase when they move into the new park, I have some swamp land to sell you) and Bill Smith is way too cautious in making deals (except of course when he gave away Bartlett and Garza for what I refer to politely as garbage).
All that being said, Go Twins!!!
“nothing beneath the left nipple.”
Nice i gotta remember that one.
Wasn’t that long ago he was getting ripped for swinging at the first pitch too often.
Not by me.
Now, he gets it for not fishing at
pitches outside the strike zone
The 3-1 pitch was called a strike. The 3-2 pitch was low. All I’m saying is that is was hittable. In that situation (the Twins are known for their great situational hitting) a walk was nice, but an RBI would have been better, since it was a hittable fastball, and the DP was not in order. A Mauer ground ball gets the run home. A Morneau ground ball would have been a DP. Situational hitting.
Speaking of the first pitch strike, the possibility that the twins swing more at the first pitch was suggested as a reason that their RISP is so much higher here
http://www.lonestarball.com/2008/8/26/601620/rob-neyer-and-fact-checkin
seems to come to the conclusion that the RISP this year is just a weird lucky streak they’re having. They haven’t been doing as well lately so maybe the luck is drying up… not very good timing.
Thanks BC of ND. Let’s hope Gardy stops running him out there.
“The fact that we don’t have a true No. 3 or No. 5 hitter is starting to catch up to us, once again. ”
Right. We have one of the best pure hitters in the game as our 3rd hitter, and a league average 5 hitter in our 5th spot. That’s really starting to catch up to the Twins.
that you can’t believe they can score some runs and break the tie either enabling Nathan to get the save in his second inning of work or another reliever
Wait…care to write that again, but make sense this time?
I have less faith in this offense than I did a month ago, meaning that when I see the team has a lead, I’m going to want to have Nathan in there to make sure it’s preserved.
Whereas if I see them tied late on the road, there’s no point in my eyes to waste Nathan then, only to watch another reliver I have less faith in potentially blow the lead once the offense manages to push it across. Leading to another tie situation, or worse, a loss.
Either way that crappy pitcher’s going to have to come in and pitch.
PS: If Nathan pitches in a tie situation, he will not be given the save, as he will be the winning pitcher.
“one of the best pure hitters in the game”
Can someone please explain to me what that term means? I feel like Bobby Knight when a reporter asked him if he had his game face on…
A Mauer ground ball gets the run home.
A Mauer ground ball gets the run. And then Morneau flies out and the guy on second sits there anyway.
You’ve changed nothing.
Jason he is the baby jesus what more do you need to know.
Can someone please explain to me what that term means?
People have tried, but you have this strange aversion to any stat that isn’t listed in the infobox where a hitter steps up to the plate on FSN.
T that term really doesn’t make any sense if your swing is pure how could it be the best pure swing if someone else had a pure swing.
Boof should have started the ninth. There was no reason to pull him after a solid eighth, especially given the problems we have had out of the ‘pen lately. Gardy can go a little overboard with that. If a bullpen pitcher has a good inning, and the game is tied or close, let him pitch a few pitches in the next inning to see if he really needs to be replaced.
This is disappointing stuff to watch, for sure, especially Mauer and Morneau. And as bad as they have looked, keep this in mind:
There is only one team in the entire American League with a winning road record.
Yes, we should be winning these games, but I have to take some comfort in the fact that nobody but the Angels is winning these games.
Can someone please explain to me what that term means?
Perhaps a visual example. Unlike Mauer, Dlmon Yng attempts to throw to first, slide into home and do a lindy hop all while striking out.
Do a Google Video search for “Street Performing Ball Spinning Juggler” for further clarification.
It seems like Boof is gaining some confidence now. I’d like to see him put into Guerrier’s role and see how he does.
Matty seems a bit out of tune still
What I think…it’s a term that masks the fact that this pure swing accompanies only average RBI and power numbers…
because of this, we have to glorify it and call it “the best pure swing”.
personally, I don’t care if the swing looks as impure as Gary Sheffield or Craig Counsell, so long as it produces.
Jason,
Pure hitter: Mauer
Impure hitter: Palmeiro
Pure hitter: Ben Leber
Impure hitter: Shawne Merriman
Pure hitter: Ali
Impure hitter: Tyson
Hope that helps!
awesome…all cleared up now!
so basically “pure hitter” is about as relevant as “game face”…
lol howard how about
Pure hitter: Tyner
Impure hitter: McGwire
“Can someone please explain to me what that term means? I feel like Bobby Knight when a reporter asked him if he had his game face on…”
Ok. Let me rephrase my statement.
Right. We have one of the best hitters in the game as our 3rd hitter, and a league average 5 hitter in our 5th spot. That’s really starting to catch up to the Twins.
A Mauer ground ball gets the run home. A Morneau ground ball would have been a DP. Situational hitting.
A Mauer groundball likely gives up an out in exchange for the run. A Mauer walk sets up a .300 hitting MVP candidate with a bases-loaded chance to break the game (and perhaps the series) wide open and (barring a DP) gives the next guy a crack at it, too. Situational walking.
Crain has no movement on his fastball. he throws hard but in a straight line. If a hitter guesses fastball he will coneect.
Yes, we should be winning these games, but I have to take some comfort in the fact that nobody but the Angels is winning these games.
And the A’s just beat the Angels two out of three (one of them was a 2-1 score, similar to last night) and in Anaheim, even.
A Mauer ground ball gets the run. And then Morneau flies out and the guy on second sits there anyway.
You’ve changed nothing.
The Mauer walk set up the opportunity for the DP, and did not get the run home. That is all that happened at that point. You can’t change things after that. I wanted Mauer to be more aggressive there (and at other times when he does this) and drive the run home on a 3-2 fastball a few inches low. If the pitch were in the dirt, no problem with me. He coaxed a walk at a time when an RBI was needed. Whatever happened after that at-bat is moot. Luckily, and predictably, Morneau didn’t GIDP. Do you understand now?
I agree with Howard, too…1.5 games does feel like 11.5 suddenly…and that’s what happens when you fail to take the bull by the horn and grab first place for more than 36 hours at a time…
Eh, such doom and gloom. Despite playing like poo, the Twins have dropped exactly 1/2-game farther behind the White Sox than they were at the start of the road trip from hades, which is now more than half over. I’ll stick with the team that can’t take the bull by the horns over the one that has choked off most of a 6 1/2 game cushion. A game and a-half is two days of good baseball and there’s a lot more left than two days. Pennant race is just beginning.
A Mauer groundball likely gives up an out in exchange for the run. A Mauer walk sets up a .300 hitting MVP candidate with a bases-loaded chance to break the game (and perhaps the series) wide open and (barring a DP) gives the next guy a crack at it, too. Situational walking.
I get your point, and taking the walk is not a terrible thing, but as I said above I would have liked Mauer to be more aggressive, especially after an aggressive baserunning move with the team struggling to score runs. Mauer taking the walk in essence nullified the double steal and set up the DP for Morneau. I think he could have mashed the 3-2 pitch had he been more aggressive there. Just MHO.
JustinCB
I found your info about innings pitched and effectiveness very interesting. I don’t know if the guys used less are more effective or they’ve failed less because of the limited opportunities. However, if this team is going anywhere there seems to be a concensus that we are going to need Boof to step up, except his role in the BP, and pitch when it matters without choking. I happen to think that he can do it. They might as well give him a chance because he can’t do any worse than Crain or Guerrier.
“Do you understand now?”
Instead, Mauer swings at a pitch out of the zone, and more than likely gets out. Perhaps a run scores, perhaps it doesn’t. Let’s say he hits a weak grounder back to the pitcher. Now we have 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs. Or, he hits weakly to the pitcher, but the runner on third gets caught in a rundown. Now we have guys at 1st and 2nd with no outs.
We can go around and around with the hypothetical situations. Here’s what Mauer did - brought the 2006 MVP up to the plate with the bases loaded and only 1 out. That is a great move. The A’s can’t pitch around him at that point without forcing a run home. A fly ball more than likely scores a run. If Morneau gets out on anything besides hit a sharp grounder - a strike out, foul pop, etc. - someone else has a chance to come to the plate and deliver a hit.
The Twins do not hit lefthanders well and are playing on the road (which nobody does well) against an opponent that just won a series against the Angels. It is frustrating for sure. Lost in the discussion was the great defense by Oakland last night on balls hit by Gomez (man their CF is fast) and Morneau. If either of those drop perhaps it’s a different game. They played well, we didn’t, we lost. It happens.
“They played well, we didn’t, we lost. It happens.”
You must be a Pittsburgh Pirates fan…
Hey, at least they have Doug Mientkeiwitz, right?
“Hey, at least they have Doug Mientkeiwitz, right?”
Zing!
Shameless,
I thought somebody might suggest that the only reason the less used relievers looked better was that they were out there less, but I think if you consider the relatively low WHIP for the lesser used relievers, I think that helps establish that they really are more effective on average when they go out there. You could maybe make the argument that Guerrier and Bass were just getting overworked or something, and that maybe would fly for Guerrier as it seems like he got less effective as the season went on, but I don’t think anybody can argue that Bass has just been flat out ineffective and it makes sense that they just cut him finally. As for Guerrier, if it truly is a problem of him being overworked, I think that is just another reason to shift more of the workload to the lesser used ’situational’ relievers. Like I mentioned before, just shifting to Nathan those 10 more ‘overworked’ innings that Guerrier has pitched, thats over an entire extra game’s worth of clearly more effective pitching. I have no doubt that Nathan/Reyes/Breslow’s numbers would go up some if they were worked more, but if that means that Guerrier’s numbers come down at the same time I think you end up with an over-all much better looking and reliable bullpen.
Jason had that one coming.
had what coming? Mientkiewicz is having a very nice year…and the Pirates stink…I’m not saying otherwise.
Mientkiewicz is pretty much irrelevant to the Pirates, as evidenced by the fact that they play a young guy who bats .160 in front of him…it’ll be interesting to see where he ends up next year.
Jason i just don’t understand the man crush you have on Dougie baseball. What about Guzman he’s playing just as well the guy even hit for the cycle last night.
with lineups recent struggles-it might worth switching it up, why not try
1. span 2. mauer 3. delmon 4. morneau 5. ruiz 6. kubel 7. busher/harris 8. punto 9. casilla
just a thought/conversation starter
where’s the offense….if you think Mauer is leaving the three-hole, you’re crazy.
If Gardy wants to continue to use Nathan the way he’s using him, fine, but the beat writer’s defense of why he does not ask Gardy to defend his policy is a little weak.
Things change and when they do, the topic warrants a re-visit. Games are getting more crucial and the pen, outside of Nathan, is getting weaker. The more often the rest of the pen screws things up, the more conspicuous the manager’s restricted use of the closer becomes. Hence, I would think you’d have to bring it up again, especially when the bullpen has figured so prominently in recent losses and especially when the manager’s long-held logic does not necessarily stand up statistically.
his high obp and low hr total is better suited to the 2. i think casilla is coming back to earth or his thumbs not right and its affecting his swing. either way in a playoff race we cant afford to have him in the two and he would be a monster upgrade (duh) over gomez in the 9. delmon at 3 doesn’t seem ideal but morneau behind him will give him more pitches to hit.
The pitchers in the later innings need to attack and not nibble. Batters will only get on about 20-30% of the time if you make them swing. Come on bulpen…CHALLENGE THEM!!
Woe is me? Look, the White Sox have no relief pitching either. The White Sox are starting a series with the contending Red Sox, etc.
Twins are going to get a big win tonight. I can feel it.
“PS: I can’t wait for the first game Gardy uses Nathan in a tie situation, only to watch the bullpen blow the actual lead later on.”
T, this has already happened, but I think it was at home and I think we won.
Way back to whoever yesterday commented on Bass still leading in IP despite having been cut several weeks ago — that’s not a surprise because he was basically a mopup guy doing sometimes very long relief when a starter faltered and we were already way behind.
I’m not saying Bass was good, he wasn’t, but those stats reflect his role.
Guerrier has been pitching more like the Guerrier of old lately so maybe he’s over whatever was messing him up.
The Nathan thing that upsets me most is the blown save in Seattle. AyYayYay…it left me wishing that Gardy had left Everyday Eddie in for both innings.
Now that Gardy has been trotting out Breslow and Guardado and even Reyes out there to face both righties and lefties, hopefully it means he’s gotten past that situational lefty cliche and/or demonstrates how desperate it has become with the Crain/Guerrier/Bonser situation.
