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Yes, we’re running outta tomorrows

Posted on September 12th, 2008 – 8:57 AM
By Howard

Yes, I think Gardy should have kept Joe Nathan in for a second inning Thuresday afternoon. He was rested and threw only 15 pitches while destroying the Royals in the ninth.

Yes, I think we’ll be able to call Francisco Liriano by his given name again. That’s “Franchise.” And, yes, I think the Twins handled his minors-to-majors transition just right.

Yes, I think it’s time to see what Boof ‘n’ Bobby Korecky can do in key relief situations. It can’t be any worse, right?

Yes, it’s no longer funny when Dennis Reyes has one-pitch outings. Not when no outs are gotten.

Yes, Carlos Gomez should be embarrassed for getting picked off on that Little League “look at third, throw to first” play. Dick said it works about once a year. Once a decade is more like it. Wonder if someone will try the hidden-ball trick on him.

Yes, this sounds petty after a loss, but Brian Runge is a horrible balls-and-strike umpire. The strike-three pitches to Mauer and Span were on the chalk of the right-side batter’s box.

Yes, I want to see Eddie Guardado after a few days off.

Yes, I think Jim Souhan’s column about the game pretty much nailed things — and La Velle has a great blog post, too.

Yes, I’m glad the White Sox have to play four games at Yankee Stadium next week during the final homestand at the place.

Yes, I think the Twins can still win the AL Central. There’s a lot of struggling going on in Chicago too.

Yes, we’re running outta tomorrows in the ‘08 season. That means there’s no more room for brain cramps, brainless at-bats and bad decisions.

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85 Responses to "Yes, we’re running outta tomorrows"

Plunkton says:

September 12th, 2008 at 9:15 am

Tell it like it is, Howard. Just say it: Reyes stinks. Yes, Guerrier put the runners on base but c’mon, Reyes is a ticking time bomb on the mound. He is good for fat pitches and wild pitches. For a guy to be used for 1-8 pitches an outing (or just one batter) we need more bang for the buck. Rarely does this happen. No other member of the bullpen makes me more nervous as Reyes. His stats do not show how much of a problem he is. Gardy, use the bullpen callups!!!!

Tricia says:

September 12th, 2008 at 9:22 am

I want the Twins to win the division so much. I can only hope the want to win it as much as I want them to! The thing is, I wonder if they’d be able to make it out of the first round of the playoffs against the Angels, the Rays or the Red Sox. It would be really frustrating to make it to the playoffs and get eliminated right away.

Ben D says:

September 12th, 2008 at 9:30 am

And No! Gomez should not be playing everyday in CF. He needs to learn how to play baseball first. Once he learns how to hit and play the game along with his athletic ability, then he will be a everyday MLB player.

BC of ND says:

September 12th, 2008 at 9:38 am

Yes, the Twins are still only one game out and i can’t understand why.

mike wants wins says:

September 12th, 2008 at 9:38 am

That game was a bummer. Kind of a microcosm of the year so far. Looked good for a while, but faded at the end. Bullpen blew up. Gomez made a bonehead play. The only way it didn’t reflect the year was batting w/RISP.

Shaitan says:

September 12th, 2008 at 9:46 am

The line “Boof couldn’t be any worse” says how the 8th inning guys are doing lately.

Plunkton says:

September 12th, 2008 at 9:59 am

And will someone please tell NOGO to quit grabbing his helmet (a la Michael Jackson grabbing his hat) everytime he makes a hit!!

joel. says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:01 am

I, too, though Souhan’s column nailed it. However, he left out the biggest missed opportunity of the entire game. In the bottom of the 8th when Mauer led off with the gift two-bagger, I thought the game was over. We had three cracks to get him home, get Nathan to the mound, and get Franchise the win and the sweep. What a letdown.

Randall says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:01 am

Something interesting regarding Liriano to keep an eye on as we head down the home stretch, courtesy of Rotoworld…(apologies for the long post)

“This is where things start to get tricky for Twins management though. Liriano has only logged 62 innings at the big-league level this season, but when his work in the minors is taken into account, he’s up to 185 1/3 innings. That’s a higher total than that of any other member of the Twins’ rotation, and Liriano is the one who missed all of 2007 while rehabbing from a major elbow surgery. It’s pretty rare that a pitcher tosses more 200 innings in his first season back after the Tommy John procedure, but Liriano seems almost certain to surpass that mark handily, especially if the Twins make the playoffs.

So how does manager Ron Gardenhire handle this situation? The Twins, trailing the White Sox by just a game in the AL Central, are in a position where every win is crucially important, and Liriano has been the team’s most effective starter by far over the past month. Yet, the Twins are moving into uncharted territory with his workload, and the 24-year-old phenom’s long-term health has to be viewed as the most important factor here.”

Liriano hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down (he actually seems to be getting stronger), but I wonder how much stock twins management will put into his innings pitched given their history of being notorious “Arms Protectors.”

Rotoblinders says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:03 am

Plunkton says:

September 12th, 2008 at 9:59 am

And will someone please tell NOGO to quit grabbing his helmet (a la Michael Jackson grabbing his hat) everytime he makes a hit!!

—————————————

That is easily one of my 3 favorite things that Gomez does. Great unintentional comedy.

FIRE GARDY & VAVRA!!! says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:15 am

“Yes, the Twins are still only one game out and i can’t understand why.”

because the rest of the division stinks and W. Sox are a MASH unit right now.. this year feels like 2006 where it seems the Twin’s are destined to have the division given to them despite their flaws.. of course we remember what happened in the playoffs that year.. :(

BC of ND says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:18 am

Can we get Gomez a chin strap or something? I gotta admit he is fun to watch it’s the helmet grabbing or sniffing the bat or his swinging bunts always something funny to see

BC of ND says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:21 am

I agree Fire right now the best team in the AL is Toronto and i keep telling myself that maybe the Twins can “get hot” like they are but it just aint happening and fortunately it’s not happening for the Sox either.

bufftwins says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:22 am

Could the FIRE GARDY AND VAVRA!! blogger come up with a new name. Very tiring. As for Gardy, he needs to start using his bench in pinch hitting situations. Yesterday with Kubel (maybe not in the 6th) but definitely in the 8th). There are many other examples including Punto late in the game when were tied or trailing.

sane says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:25 am

The Twins have 17 more days, 16 more games and three more weekends to try to win (stay in?) the race.

It beats hell out of just playing out the season.
Every day they can stay in the race is good for their young players. (and me)

sane says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:31 am

bufftwins,
I believe FIRE.. has agreed to change his moniker if the Twins win 90 games (10-6 the rest of the way).

I think his new name is something like: RAINBOWS, LOLLIPOPS, SUNSHINE AND EVERYTHING IS ROSY!!!

or

FIRE ME INSTEAD!!!

Kaci says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:32 am

Fire hates the fact the Twins are still in it. It makes it hard for him to cry and yell about how bad the Twins are and how our coaches suck. If the Twins do win the division he will no doubt say it was given to us and still want to fire everyone.

shameless says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:32 am

We are destined to win the division because all the teams suck! The only team in our division that doesnt suck is the tribe and their just now figuring that out. Time for us to let Reyes, Guerrier, and crain rot in the BP for the rest of the year! The young guys can’t be any worse and Boof has the stuff! I don’t want to hear that it isn’t fair to put these youngsters in in pressure situations! I guess it wasn’t fair to the fans that you traded Santana away either. Consider where we could go in the playoffs with franchise and Santana!

gobbledygookguy says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:35 am

do i sense a double standard here? punto gets picked off on wed. very few words, gomez gets picked off and gets blasted. punto is a veteran and should be showing leadership, not “bonehead” plays like you’d expect out of a 22 yr old.
neither play is excusable both are equal in their boneheadedness! not sure that’s a word, however.

BC of ND says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:35 am

” I guess it wasn’t fair to the fans that you traded Santana away either. ”

I gotta chuckle out of that one good point though.

JJ says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:37 am

Where did we go last year with Santana and Hunter? To the house to watch the playoffs on tv. Good point shameless.

FIRE GARDY & VAVRA!!! says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:37 am

Kaci/Bufftwins you have no clue.. I have repeatedly explained why my moniker is what it is.. as for pretending to know my feelings on the Twins your psychology is laughable
let’s keep the discussion on track - it’s about the Twins and “tomorrow never dies!’

thrylos98 says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:38 am

Yes, the Twins can (and will) win the division

but

Gardy lost the game yesterday by not pinch hitting for Kubel twice and Buscher once with no outs in RISP against lefties; as well as PH for Redmond after that disastrous DP at his previous AB. That game should have been over in 9. And not that there were not viable PH options on the bench (Either Delmon or Ruiz would have been fine on that situation). And his use of the pen has been atrocious all year, including that game.

Thanks to Toronto, there is hope, but regardless of the results this season Gardy’s go to go the day after and Carthago delenda est

BC of ND says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:41 am

I don’t like to rip on Gardy but the one call up that he’s not using that i think he should be using is Korecky. He was the closer in Rochester and did a good job based on his stats and he did a good job when he was here earlier in the year. It seems to me that since he was the closer he would be more comfortable in those late game situations just my opinion.

Joey says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:41 am

Gomez is an amazing athlete, its too bad he sucks at baseball. Maybe we could trade him to the Vikings. I think he would be a bad ass reciever. Nevermind they have nobody to throw him the ball.

Plunkton says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:44 am

Joey…who/what from the Vikes would you want in return? T. Jackson? A bag of chips? Oh wait..they are the same thing. :(

Kaci says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:45 am

Whats your discussion Fire? That the Twins will win the division bc everyone else stinks and if they do, they will be swept in the first round of the playoffs. Your right lets keep talking about that.

Plunkton says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:47 am

I believe that has been Fire’s stance for many months.

sane says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:47 am

GGG,
” both are equal in their boneheadedness!”

Great new word “boneheadedness”, but I must disagree.

To get picked off 1B by the fake to 3B, WHEN YOU AREN’T EVEN STEALING is beyond stupid, even for Pony League.
And I love Gomez.

Punto was stealing off a LHP on first movement which is a risky play, but sometimes the ONLY way to steal 2B against a LHP.
Much different levels of “boneheadedness”

Joey says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:50 am

Your right that dude is so bad. They can put gomez and Peterson in the back field and direct snap it to them every other play.

shameless says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:53 am

Being that Humber is out of options shouldn’t we be seeing if he’s ready for the majors? The only role that he can hope to play for the twins next year is out of the BP. I can’t see him unseating any of our current starters? LETS SEE WHAT THE KID HAS NOW!!!

FIRE GARDY & VAVRA!!! says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:56 am

“Whats your discussion Fire? That the Twins will win the division bc everyone else stinks and if they do, they will be swept in the first round of the playoffs. Your right lets keep talking about that.”

making the playoffs gives more experience to the youngsters that’s a good thing.. it beats being a Royal fan and knowing during each off-season your team is no closer to making the playoffs

Kaci what do you want to discuss concerning the Twins?

gobbledygookguy says:

September 12th, 2008 at 10:59 am

sane that is true but i think it goes to the point of a lack of real veteran leadership on this team, (lead by example). where that leadership should come from is up for debate but the premise that it is lacking, imo isn’t.

shameless says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:01 am

We are the weakest team in the American league play-off hunt and probably won’t do anything in the play-offs. But this team is extremely young and has a chance to go to the play-offs alot over the next five years. We were supossed to battling KC for last place remember? This season has been a pleasant surprize and lets not forget that. However, we would be serious contenders had the santana trade not happened. I don’t mean to keep bringing that up but it is the truth. Spans contributions to the top of the order would have helped early in the year; plus perkins would or blackburn would be in the BP giving us the help we can’t seem to find. OH yea and there’s that whole fact that we would be sitting on two power pitchers….which as far as I remember is a recipe for a world series win….but I’m just a jack-ass fan what do I know!

Section 221 says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:01 am

I disagree with Howard. Nathan in a one inning pitcher, history has shown that. But how about letting Liriano go nine or even 10. That game was crucial and the same old mistakes by gardy are killing us. Gomez is a bonehead, that that bonehead has been driving in runs and playing outstanding defense.

BC of ND says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:09 am

Section 221 if anyone needs to be on a strict pitch count it’s Liriano.

sane says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:10 am

shameless,
“this team is extremely young and has a chance to go to the play-offs alot over the next five years”

But if Santana is costing $25 million/year, and the Twins don’t re-up Morneau, Mauer, Nathan and pay for the raises that the young players will require for the next five years, that chance becomes slim and none.

BC of ND says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:18 am

Speaking of Nathan can you imagine how bad the Twins would be this year without him? The best thing BS has done by far is resigning Nathan.

shameless says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:18 am

Hey I’ll take one worls series win over five years GETTING to the play-offs! Thats just me …go big or go home! Plus why is always about keeping the big name white players..I’d rather see mauer go than santana!

sane says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:24 am

shameless,
The Twins gave up Santana & Hunter and went from 79-83 (and no future) to 80-66 (and a bright future).

This year beats the dog sh-t out of last year!

Plunkton says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:26 am

Shameless….why bring race into this? The only ‘race’ that should be brought up here is the AL Central.

Can of Corn says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:40 am

Shameless,
Your moniker is right on. That comment about “white players” has no place on this blog…plus, letting a guy go who can contribute to a win every 5 games compared to a guy contributing both offense and defense 2 out of 3 games is just stupid.

Can of Corn says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:41 am

…unless you want to win more than Santana’s starts.

thrylos98 says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:50 am

We are the weakest team in the American league play-off hunt and probably won’t do anything in the play-offs

I beg to differ.

Let’s assume that the AL post season teams are” Twins, Boston, Angels, and Rays.

starting rotations:

Twins:
Liriano (after callup): 1.57 ERA, 0.949 WHIP,
Slowey: 3.63 ERA 1.087 WHIP
Baker: 3.66 ERA 1.205 WHIP
Blackburn: 3.67 ERA 1.291 WHIP

Boston
Dice-K 2.97 ERA 1.365 WHIP
Lester: 3.23 ERA 1.310 WHIP
Byrd: 4.23 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Beckett (?) 4.10 ERA 1.216 WHIP

Tampa:
Kasmir: 2.99 ERA 1.222 WHIP
Shields: 3.64 ERA 1.163 WHIP
Garza: 3.55 ERA 1.218 WHIP
Jackson 4.06 ERA 1.467 WHIP

Angels:
Lackey: 3.25 ERA 1.152 WHIP
Santana: 3.36 ERA 1.119 WHIP
Saunders: 3.64 ERA 1.236 WHIP
Garland: 4.52 ERA 1.445 WHIP

Batting

Twins: TEAM OPS+ 101, Runs scored 742
Tampa: TEAM OPS+ 103, Runs scored 667
Boston: TEAM OPS+ 115, Runs scored 776 (but no Ramirez and he had 138 OPS+ and 68 RBI )
Angels: TEAM OPS+ 94, Runs scored 681

Bullpen

Twins: ERA 4.07 OPP OPS .752
Rays: ERA 3.52 OPP OPS .663
Boston: ERA: 3.85 OPP OPS .704
Angels: ERA: 3.66 OPP OPS .713

So, the Twins compare favorably in the starting rotations with every other opponent and the ranking would be Twins>Angels>Tampa>Boston. As far as hitting goes, the ranking would be Boston>Twins>Tampa>Angels and bullpen Tampa>Angels>Boston>Twins. If you assign a score of 4 for the best and 1 for the least in those categories and add it up you have:

Twins: 8
Tampa: 8
Boston: 7
Angels: 7

pretty close methinks… the ‘fact’ that the Twins are not competitive in a post-season scenario is an urban legend that is nurtured to decrease responsibility in a failure…

jon says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:53 am

Analysis paralysis.

JustinCB says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:54 am

Section 221:

I’ll take a “one inning pitcher” over a “no inning pitcher” (see; Guerrier-Reyes)

Everybody knows that the closer role is WAY overrated and it doesn’t make sense to relegate your best reliever to one inning or only a ninth inning when your other options are… well… not even options at this point.

BTW, does K-rod totally piss anybody else off with the production at the end of every save? The fact that he is chasing BOBBY THIGPEN for the all-time saves record should be enough to show anybody that this isn’t much of a record at all. Just like wins, the save is a total beast of circumstance and only serves to inflate contracts.

Dan says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:55 am

Sometimes just looking at black-and-white numbers doesn’t tell the whole story.

Dan says:

September 12th, 2008 at 11:57 am

Justin-

What pisses me off about K-Rod is the fact that the Angels are favored to win the World Series and he’s bringing un-needed drama into the mix regarding where he’ll end up next season.

That just shows you how low athletes have gotten. Everybody wants to win. Why would you leave a legit championship contender, quite possibly after a WS win. Simply put, $$$$

sane says:

September 12th, 2008 at 12:05 pm

thrylos,
“If you assign a score of 4 for the best and 1 for the least in those categories”

IMO,that is an arbitrary decision assuming:
1)all the categories have equal importance
2)The spread is the equal between each ranking in each category
3)Regular season stats predict postseason stats
4) Postseason personnel deployment is correlated to regular season (which is untrue because all teams shrink their rotation (as well their entire pitching staff) while increasing their bench players.

FIRE GARDY & VAVRA!!! says:

September 12th, 2008 at 12:08 pm

“pretty close methinks… the ‘fact’ that the Twins are not competitive in a post-season scenario is an urban legend that is nurtured to decrease responsibility in a failure”

check Gardy’s playoff record it is no urban legend and it should ONLY INCREASE the reponsibility of the F.O. to do something about it
the trading of Johan and Graza have enabled the offense to improve now
The starting pitching is still good
the core players are locked up and the payroll is miserly low
LOOKS LIKE… WE’RE COMMINNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!

JustinCB says:

September 12th, 2008 at 12:09 pm

well, with any luck, the Yankees will give up whatever is left of their farm system for him and pay him Pavano like money and then he’ll blow up his first year in New York, further hurting the Yankees’ chances of contending next year.

JustinCB says:

September 12th, 2008 at 12:14 pm

I like the numbers break down there Thrylos…. does help to put things in perspective a little bit. Its unfortunate that hasn’t translated to a better record during the regular season here, but anything goes come Oct. If anything, I’d say to give a little bit of an edge to the pitching side as opposed to the batting and give a bigger edge to the starting pitching as opposed to the relif. But again, you can’t really predict the playoffs, not after the Rockies were in the WS last year and the Cardinals won the whole thing a couple years ago with like 82 wins.

I will say if nothing else that nobody looks like the runaway favorite going into the thing as has been the case some years with the Yankees and Boston. Even the Twins bullpen looks a little better once they can replace Guerrier with Perkins in the bullpen. Not only will we be rid of Guerrier’s inevitable 2 run innings, but it will add another left handed option so they don’t have to rely on the unreliable Reyes.

Dan says:

September 12th, 2008 at 12:16 pm

I say if the Twins make the playoffs, and we move 2 of our starters to the ‘pen, we make Reyes sell hot dogs in the stands during the games until he sheds a few.

JustinCB says:

September 12th, 2008 at 12:44 pm

I don’t think we should trust Dennys with a case of hotdogs.

Sweetone says:

September 12th, 2008 at 12:46 pm

Justin,

K-Rod will be a free agent so the Yankees don’t have to give anything for him, just piles of cash.

Jason says:

September 12th, 2008 at 12:51 pm

The hazing the rookies took was nothing compared to the hazing the veterans took against a feeble KC team yesterday.

thrylos98 says:

September 12th, 2008 at 12:55 pm

sane et al,
yes the numbers are crude and cannot predict an exact translation into postseason performance (heck, if I could do that, I’d go to vegas instead of posting here ;) )

but

what the number show with some certainty is that the Twins are no less competitive than any other potential AL post season team.

Crude, but saying that the Twins should glad that they might be in because they are so much behind in talent is a gross misinterpretation.

and, FIRE, yes, you should know by now how I feel about Gardy getting the boot and Carthago delenda est

BC of ND says:

September 12th, 2008 at 12:59 pm

The only boot Gardy needs is the steel tipped one in his closet so he can kick his bullpen in the ass.

JustinCB says:

September 12th, 2008 at 1:07 pm

Sweetone,

oh yeah, thats right. Well, I hope they end up wasting a lot of money on him anyway. Twins would be a lot better off trying to trade for one of those quality Toronto relievers that nobody has heard of (yet).

sane says:

September 12th, 2008 at 1:13 pm

thrylos98,
My nit-picking aside, I appreciate the work that went into your study.

lovesucks says:

September 12th, 2008 at 1:15 pm

We might match up OK when it comes to the starters but we can’t hold leads. And for some reason gardy thinks a mop up guy (guerrier) should continually be used in important situations! We need to have at least two non-situational pitchers coming of our bullpen(that aren’t nathan) who can over power and shut down quality major league hitters!

lovesucks says:

September 12th, 2008 at 1:20 pm

Yes I do think that Liriano, Slowey, Baker is a quality post season rotation, but not nearly as good as Santana, Baker, Liriano, and Slowey would be. Thyros How can you include Blackburn or Perkins in the post season rotation they both give up way too many hits…don’t you think?

thrylos98 says:

September 12th, 2008 at 1:51 pm

Thyros How can you include Blackburn or Perkins in the post season rotation they both give up way too many hits?

Perkins was not included.

Blackie’s WHIP is 1.291. If you look at the post season pitchers of all AL probables, he gives less hits and walks than:

Garland
Jackson
Dice-K
Lester
Jackson

as a 4th pitcher, he is better than the 4th pitcher of any other AL post-season team

FIRE GARDY & VAVRA!!! says:

September 12th, 2008 at 2:01 pm

“as a 4th pitcher, he is better than the 4th pitcher of any other AL post-season team”
trouble is a 4th pitcher does no good if he never pitches
Perkins and Blackburn in the bully if the Twin’s reach post-season

Beisbol-a-GO-GO says:

September 12th, 2008 at 2:41 pm

Thrylos, what’s with the Latin, you know English is sometimes a challenge on these blogs!! LOL

Thanks for the analysis. Unfortunately you left off one thing (admittedly an intangible): the vibes put out by RGardenhire to the team when the moment is big, as in Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park. I think the Twins might actually match up well with the Angels (no fear factor there) and we’ll see about the Rays after their upcoming series there (the two teams split back in April). But oh brother, the RSox, will they look like deer in the highlights again in Fenway?? And Dice-K’s atats are a little skewed by that patch when he walked just about everybody but still got wins. He’s not pitching like that right now.

Beisbol-a-GO-GO says:

September 12th, 2008 at 2:45 pm

P.S. no fear factor at Angel Stadium but better bring the earplugs for those damn thundersticks as well as those annoying banana eating you know what kind of stuffed animal as well as their cousin up on the jumbotron.

saam says:

September 12th, 2008 at 3:17 pm

” But oh brother, the RSox, will they look like deer in the highlights again in Fenway??”

That’s why I’m hoping the Rays take the East. That way the Twins will get home field if they meet the Sox in the ALCS.

saam says:

September 12th, 2008 at 3:21 pm

Thanks for the stats, Thrylos. I’d like to add that you did not include defense in your comparison. I would also argue that Tampa has the worst offense because they suck with RISP.

Baseball Insighter says:

September 12th, 2008 at 3:37 pm

Offer a little constructive critique of the Twins & people think you’re being negative. Objectively, as a 40-year Twins fan, the Twins aren’t quite ready for prime time. They’re too young in key spots and the 7th and 8th inning heart attack blues this year will end up leaving them a little short in their playoff pursuit. Still a fantastic season, though, in what most everyone expected would be a rebuilding year. Only if Chicago hands the division to the Twins will MN win it this year.

JimCrikket says:

September 12th, 2008 at 3:41 pm

sane:
“4) Postseason personnel deployment is correlated to regular season (which is untrue because all teams shrink their rotation (as well their entire pitching staff) while increasing their bench players.”

Is that really true? I was under the impression that playoff rosters were “set” at the end of August and the only changes allowed were to replace injured injured players with another player of the same position.. i.e a pitcher with a pitcher, position player with a position player. Or was it only the 40 man roster that was “set” and the team can go in to the playoffs with any 25-man group from that established 40-man roster?

Just when I think I have this stuff figured out, I find out I’m wrong. (Kinda like women, now that I think about it.)

saam says:

September 12th, 2008 at 3:46 pm

Jim, I think any player on the 25 man roster or the DL on 8/31 can be on the post season roster. The Twins could add Cuddyer and drop a pitcher, for example.

JimCrikket says:

September 12th, 2008 at 3:49 pm

BI, at this point, even if the Twins go on a roll and win 60% of their remaining games to win the Division, plenty of people will say the Sox handed them the title by not taking advantage of the 5-9 road trip blues.

But if the Sox win it, I could just as easily argue that the Twins “handed” the title to Chicago. Neither team has played well lately and either could have been 5 games up right now if they had even played .500 ball lately.

Beisbol-a-GO-GO says:

September 12th, 2008 at 4:12 pm

Crikket I’d be so torqued if the Whities beat the Twins by one mere game. AJ basically stole one win from the Rays with his “interference call” that even MLB confirmed afterwards was a very badly blown call.

If you believe in conspiracy theories, you’d almost be able to make a case that both teams are playing bad baseball right now so that final series at the Dome will make for high drama. Not to mention and let’s not forget the Royals after that. I hope this year it won’t be the Whitie fans at US Cellular watching their jumbotron the way we did in ‘06 as they did in the Tigers and handed us the Division Title on Day 162.

JimCrikket says:

September 12th, 2008 at 4:34 pm

While I do believe the Sox would love to clinch the Division right under the Twins’ and their fans’ noses, I really don’t think they want to pin their Division hopes on winning games at the Dome. I’m pretty sure it’s no conspiracy… just well coordinated ineptitude.

Sean says:

September 12th, 2008 at 4:47 pm

Probably the toughest loss i’ve seen so far this year for the Twins. Just because of how good Liriano-Nathan were and who the Twins were hitting against. Who cares that Nathan didn’t pitch a 2nd inning? There is NO WAY the Twins should have been in the 10th against KC with Duckworth pitching. Hitting needs to step up.
And yeah Gomez sucks but he did drive in a run before he got caught stealing.

izzy997 says:

September 12th, 2008 at 4:48 pm

Howard,
Nice alliteration on the B’s….but you forgot bonehead baserunning & bummer bullpen

Topher says:

September 12th, 2008 at 4:53 pm

It’s go time for the Twins. At the very minimum they need to win every series from here on out (which would give them 91 wins). Ideally they need to mix in a couple sweeps of some the lousier teams (Baltimore and KC).

If the Twins do anything from here and on into the post season it will be a miraculous run ala the Rockies of 07. Numbers wise our bullpen and lineup are very vulnerable.

sane says:

September 12th, 2008 at 6:02 pm

JimCrikket,
Post-season rosters ARE virtually set on August 31.
What I meant was that regular season rosters (before 8-31) account for most of the regular season stats. And postseason rosters (after 8-31) accounted for very little of the regular season stats, but ALL of the postseason stats.
Jeeze, that was clearer in my head than it is to read it.

rayreiner says:

September 13th, 2008 at 7:55 am

Good morning!
What about this business of one-game playoffs in case of a tie. Have I been sleeping or is this a long-time policy of MLB that I have just glossed over? Regardless, it seems incredibly dumb to require two teams that have already played 19 times to let their entire respective seasons be decided by one additional game. Shouldn’t the 19 regular season games be a good enough barometer?
To answer my own question, not when there is $$$ to be made. No matter how ridiculous, or shameless, it appears MLB is shameless in its pursuit of a few extra bucks.
In my opinion, the team that won the regular season series should be declared the division winner in case of a tie. We really dont need a 20th game.

sid says:

September 13th, 2008 at 10:21 am

Bobby Thompson HR off Ralph Branca in 1951. “The Giants win the pennant!!!”

So its at least 57 years old.

I am sure the teams involved would rather play one game-winner take all, than be eliminated because of some regular season clunker that no one remembers any more.

romer says:

September 13th, 2008 at 1:46 pm

If this is a repeat idea, I apologize. Time is short.

Being 6 out in the WC means the Twins are done with that race. No way Boston starts lagging as they want the Division for home field advantage

The decision re Baker’s possible start today and onward is very important. He was on track to pitch the last game of the season. So here’s the opportunity to move that back.

There could be a tie in the Central, and a 1-game playoff. Right now, the starting pitcher for that would have to be Perkins, arguably the worst Twins starter.

If Baker starts today, I suggest using the 6th starter (Boof) on the 17th, which was to be a Baker start (but now would only get him 3 days’ rest). Baker would start the 18th. He would get his normal 4 days’ rest.

The normally scheduled pitchers would still pitch the 14th, 15th, and 16th.

The only negatives of my plan (in addition to the one-day use of Boof) are — Everyone besides Baker would then get at least 5 days’ rest starting the 19th, with additionally Liriano getting 6 days’ rest on the 23rd (and Perkins getting 5 days’ rest on the 24th). Baker would have only 2 starts remaining, instead of 3, after today (since he would be in line to start the post-season).

Liriano would face Chicago instead of, essentially, Blackburn.

Neutrally, Baker would replace Liriano, essentially, in the Rays series. And Blacburn would replace Liriano, essentially, in the KC series. (Blackburn can pitch well again vs KC.)

(Here’s the chart):

ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED/NOW SCHEDULED

14 - BL/BL
15 - S/S
16 - L/L
17 - Boof/P
18 - P/B
19 - BL/P
20 - S/BL
21 - L/S
22 - Off
23 - B/L
24 - P/B
25 - B/P
26 - S/BL
27 - L/S
28 - B/L
Tiebreaker - P/B

HOWARD, get this info to the Twins please. I analyzed and posted Thursday how they could have set up the Rays and Chisox series and tiebreaker better by using offdays and rearranging the rotation but didn’t.

Now here’s a fortuitous opportunity to do so again.

They MUST start Baker today, and then evaluate the above plan and decide by Tuesday on it.

romer says:

September 13th, 2008 at 1:52 pm

“Baker would have only 2 starts remaining, instead of 3, after today (since he would be in line to start the post-season).”

I meant to say, in line to start the tiebreaker, not “to start the post-season”.

Additionally, I foolishly am assuming that a tiebreaker is a possibility because I haven’t investigated that situation. Is it still a possibility?

Nor McAsh says:

September 13th, 2008 at 1:54 pm

Howard wrote: Yes, I think we’ll be able to call Francisco Liriano by his given name again. That’s “Franchise.” And, yes, I think the Twins handled his minors-to-majors transition just right.

Fine and dandy.

A little perspective, though:

Excluding his April starts, he’s faced KC, Oakland and Seattle twice each, and Detroit and Cleveland once each.

That’s two last place teams, a team that’s gone 16-36 in the past two months, and two division rivals that are battling for fourth place.

I like what I’m seeing. But I’m not convinced yet.

romer says:

September 16th, 2008 at 1:16 am

“And Blacburn would replace Liriano, essentially, in the KC series.”

My mistake, I should have said Blackburn would replace Baker in the KC series.