Sometimes you get things wrong. (Rays edition)
Posted on October 20th, 2008 – 11:06 AMBy Howard
I remember writing something during the previous off season about how the Twins could, perhaps, fetch some kind of replacement for the Torii/Santana departures and it might not be so bad because Matt Guerrier was a gutty four-pitch reliever and I could see him in the closer’s role.
There are other examples of things about the Twins that should never have left the keyboard and gone floating into cyberspace, and I’ll be compiling them for an end-of-the-calendar-year post. (Like the time in May I pretty much guaranteed Nick Blackburn a win against the Rangers because he was pitching against Sidney Ponson that night at the Dome.) But that’s the way baseball goes for a blogger. If a batter is considered highly successful when he gets hits 30 percent of the time and a manager is considered successful if he makes the right move 105 percent of the time, then I guess bloggers can consider themselves reasonably astute if their dot on the line graph falls somewhere in between.
With that in mind, I call your attention to two links still floating around the Internet that, somehow, managed to escape and need to be addressed today.
First off, there’s this page on Baseball-Reference.com, which was perhaps a too-giddy reaction to Delmon Young’s arrival. I should probably go in and change the sponsorship message. Anyone have a suggestion?
And then, there’s this April post that was fabulously witty at the time but, uhhhhh, doesn’t look too good today as the Tampa Bay Rays get ready to complete their incredible season by going where they never, ever came close to going before.
I was kind of conflicted about the ALCS. I wanted Boston to win because I thought a Boston-Philly World Series would be a neat match-up between two old-time established teams. And the thought of Tampa Bay in the World Series with its 4,651 fans, cowbells, mohawks and a stadium that makes the Metrodome look like a baseball cathedral by comparison just didn’t sit well.
But I guess things turned out for the best. If the Red Sox had rallied from a 3-to-1 games deficit for a second straight season, we would have read endless and tiresome tomes to a new mystique that replaced the curse that allegedly befell the Red Sox for the Babe Ruth trade. It would have been kazoo music passed off as classical and, as I’ve shown here, I’m fully well capable of doing that on my own several times every season.
So it’s time to celebrate the final week of the baseball season. Pick a temporary allegiance, start gathering firewood for the hot stove and hope for good games. And, if that’s not enough, you can join me in celebrating the official college and pro football teams of Section 220.
66 Responses to "Sometimes you get things wrong. (Rays edition)"
That Carl Crawford post was great and so was this one!
Good job Howard.
I was thinking about your Crawford post when i was listening to him on TBS last night.
Even though the Rays have had an awesome year, Camp Carl was still a great post. Come on, say it- “I regret nothing!”
Bartlett may still be qualified to teach at Camp Carl, based on his glovework this series…
Howard,
I think that “purgatory” in Delmon’s BR page is perfect to describe Tampa Bay’s situation (Quoting from Wikipedia) :
Purgatory is the condition or process of purification or temporary punishment in which the souls of those who die in a state of grace are made ready for heaven
The Rays are just closer to baseball heaven than they were last year and if the baseball gods want, they will there (I assume, but Theologist, I am not)
I have to root for Philly, it’s my quasi-local team here, so there is a lot of pressure and other than Tampa being a Cinderella story this year, the crystal slipper alone is not enough to make me root for Florida teams (or teams that are potentially directly into the Twins’ path for a title.)
Now, if someone figures out why Bill Smith wants to trade for or sign a free agent reliever, when the team has an excess at the major league level, please let me know…
I still would NOT want Garza on the Twins. He is a head-case, just not worth it. He is a competitor but definately not a team player. There have been numerous examples the last couple years. Arguments with coaches and management here, arguments with players in Tampa, among others that I’m sure. As for Bartlett, nice “clutch” error in the 8th last night, almost cost your team the pennant. I like Harris better than Bartlett; stronger arm, more pop in his bat, more potential. As for Delmon, I think the only way we make out good there is to get some value for him in a trade. He doesn’t play “Twins baseball” and I don’t want him in the lineup everyday (especially if Gomez stays in the lineup).
I don’t get why we don’t take an extended look at Harris at SS, anyway? His stint there this year, while short, IIRC was quite good. How about a long look for Harris at SS, acquire a real 3B, Casilla at 2B and Punto as the utility?
Swannie,
I can totally be wrong and not regret it!
I want Delmon Young in the lineup for the Twins for 162 games in 2009, and then again in 2010, 2011, 2012, etc.
The guy’s 23 years old and has outrageous raw power. His walk rate improved this year, he’s making strides in his pitch selection and plate discipline. If he can continue down that path, we’ll have a great hitter on our hands. The power and the HRs will come with pitch selection… based on the 430ft+ HRs he’d club, I’d say he’s got plenty of power to offer.
Such a bunch of crap about him “not playing Twins Baseball.” What IS “Twins Baseball?” Sliding headfirst too much? Kissing your hands and pointing to God every time you make contact with a ball? (Denard) Constantly injuring yourself while running the bases? (Cuddyer, Punto, others) How about taking a 3-1 fastball with a runner on second rather than actually trying to drive it? (Mauer) Constantly bunting with two strikes? (Gomez)
My point is, everyone on the Twins has things they do that drive us nuts. Delmon is more laid back and reserved than the rest of the team. That doesn’t make him a bad player or make him bad for the clubhouse. This crap Jim Souhan is trying to jam down our throats about Delmon needing to go is driving me nuts. Souhan thinks he’s some brilliant baseball sage, but more often than not ends up talking out of the wrong end of his body.
He’s the same guy who said on Twins Live that the White Sox bullpen was “made up of a bunch of people no one’s ever heard of.” Bobby Jenks, Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel? Right Jimmy, bunch of no-names there…
Instead of trading Delmon Young, is there any way the Strib can trade Souhan to another paper for an intern-to-be-named-later?
Dean,
For whatever reason, Harris fell out of favor with the coaching staff towards the end it seems like.
I like him just fine at SS, but I don’t think he’ll be making a long-term return.
“Now, if someone figures out why Bill Smith wants to trade for or sign a free agent reliever, when the team has an excess at the major league level, please let me know…”
Yeah, it looks like Smith may already be suffering the sophomore jinx.
Steve from Fridley
Excellant post at 1:05. I don’t get the Delmon Young hate, either. I loathe the race card, but I’m starting to think that, coming out of the mouths of some fans and media, the phrase “Doesn’t play Twins baseball” means “Tattooed non-white that doesn’t know his place.”
Steve from Fridley, I’m glad somebody is defending Delmon. The kid is 23 and hit close to .300 his first 2 years in the majors. I say give him a chance. He showed some power. His OBP rise and K’s decreased year over year. I see massive improvement. Plus he has a cannon of an arm and should improve defensively.
I remember reading Howard’s sponsorship on baseball reference and laughing a bit a month or so ago.
Someone referenced Garza earlier and I’d agree. I don’t really like Garza as a pitcher. He won last night despite himself. I believe at one point he went a whole inning throwing just fastballs. That’s not good. That’s the same crap he tried to pull in Minnesota. I think long term he will just become another Kyle Lohse.
Adding to the Young discussion:
Re: fielding:
a. This is the first year that Young played left field in the majors. Previously, he was a RF and occasional CF. In my book, after Cuddyer went down, it was the manager’s fault to keep Young at left with Span at right.
b. He played the last 2 months hurt. How many current and ex Twins do you know who are willing to go out there at less than 100% and help the team?
I am a bit worried about all those Young trade rumors that are being floated by the senior (citizen) writers of both TC papers and I am afraid there might be some truth to that. This is a young team (no pun intended). Gardenhire has proven to have a little less than flexible personality to people who are perceived to be ‘different’ (see comments about Carlos Gomez in May, see comments about Liriano in April, see comments about Mike Lamb in August, see comments about Casilla last year etc etc.) I am just not sure that he will be able to harvest the potential of his young players, unless he changes his tactics…
I’m with Steve too- and I’ve been having this discussion with my mom for months. If Delmon would just relax and have a little fun, maybe do some interesting interviews, the naysayers might give him some leeway. More homers wouldn’t hurt, either.
Hopefully we pick up a hitter but it had better not involve moving Delmon. People can knock his defense all they want but LF is an offense first position and he was solid this year and could be a very good player in the future. It would be foolish to move him. With all the bellyaching over losing Garza it would really hurt to trade him for a decent third basemen that we could get by moving some pitchers and then in a few years he becomes a 30+ homer guy.
In my book, after Cuddyer went down, it was the manager’s fault to keep Young at left with Span at right.
I think it’s a good thing Gardy kept Denard in right. He made many plays (including a game-saver in Seattle) there that Delmon is simply not athletic enough to make. I think Delmon looks like he’s running in molasses and that he needs to drop a few pounds, but then I look at Dmitri and wonder if that’s possible.
Nice read Howard.
I respectfully submit for all of those who’ve spent much of the year saying “where did you hear or read that Delmon has been a distraction or bad clubhouse guy” you might want to start with this article.
http://www.sptimes.com/2008/02/20/Rays/Crawford_relishes_the.shtml
He may end up recognizing his potential one day but the reason to trade him now is that now is when he still has value. Another year or two like this past one and Delmon brings nothing in return. So his going on and being a good or great player only is damaging if what you get in return turns out to be a bust.
JJ Hardy and/or Beltre or Blake, lets make these deals happen this offseason.
thrylos98
“He played the last 2 months hurt. How many current and ex Twins do you know who are willing to go out there at less than 100% and help the team?”
Do you want that list chronological, alphabetical or just off the top of the head? It will be a long list featuring All-Star’s and Hall of Famer that have done so with the Twins. Please don’t use this anymore in your defense of Delmon because it is easily your weakest. He wasn’t a great player in the first half of the season either before he got hurt.
And as far who is stinking the place at the OF and should be the odd man out:
Cuddyer: .249/.330/.369 83AB/HR
Young: .290/.336/.405 57.5AB/HR
Jason Bartlett I was not too high on. Garza, I thought, was the best Twins pitching prospect after Liriano. I think the Twins should not have traded Garza. It was a poor assessment of talent by the organization. Garza was the top young pitching prospect in all of baseball. The Twins organization probably knew he had the best talent and feared having to pay both he and Liriano top dollars in the future. But, the Twins are going to wish they had never traded Garza! I think the Twins organization has been just trying to stay resonably competitive and not win the division… just good enough to keep the fan attendance up but not good enough to have to pay more in salaries. I think the Twins organization was somewhat surprised at the performance of alot of their young players in 2008. The best trade the Twins could make for 2009 and the future would be to trade Cuddyer and Punto in order to strength the left handers in the bullpen.
Assessing talent is the alpha and omega of organization. Twins just failed last year, miserably. The new guys, via trade or FA, did not cut it. What hurts is thinking about the trade that could have been (Lester, Masterson, Lowrie?)….and the trade that should not have been. Imagine Liriano, Garza, Lester, Baker, and pick-it for your starting rotation, with Masterson, Perkins, and now Mijares to bring sanity to the 7th and 8th innings. That would be a contending team for many years to come. Oh well.
As for Delmon, Aaron Gleeman had a great piece on him. Sorry, I’m too lazy to go get the link right now. But it’s still on his site. The stat’s do not lie. DY hits ground balls or strikes out 64% of the time. As AG points out, that means he has no chance to use the power he supposedly has 2/3 of his at-bats. He will require a major change in hitting approach to develop this as-yet-unseen power swing he’s developing. That, combined with his high-school level defense, raise DY to the “Bust” category. Should we trade him now? Cut your losses Bill Smith. You need to move DY, and improve the defense of the left side of the infield and outfield in the process.
The stat’s do not lie. DY hits ground balls or strikes out 64% of the time
Stat’s don’t lie, but they can get abused if
a. they are incomplete and no baseline or context is created and
b. once context is created, the data does not support the hypothesis
So the hypothesis is the higher the fly-ball percentage, the higher the probability to develop power
Here are the complete stats:
ground ball + stikeout percentage, Twins 2008:
Span 64%
Young 64%
Gomez 62%
Harris 62%
Casilla 61%
Punto 58%
Mauer 54%
Cuddyer 54%
Tolbert 54%
Rerdmond 51%
Kubel 51%
Morneau 51%
Everett 49%
Buscher 45%
a couple of things:
a. If that hypothesis were correct, Everett and Tolbert would be sluggers extraordinaire…
b. Young has a lot of company out there at the 60+%
Looking at things out of context does not make sense
The sad part is that many fans want Delmon to be traded away just so that they can definitively say that it was a bust, but then if he catches on with another team, Bill Smith was an idiot to let him go.
Seeing the link for this post reminded me how much I am going to miss the 220 during the offseason.
It will be fun to chime in from time to time, but I’m not much on endless speculation of which offseason acquisition Twins fans can only dream about adding to the roster, only to have the real fodder drop down to whatever third-helping leftovers we end up with.
But I digress.
Back to the Rays, I, like Howard, did not think they would pull this thing off. I thought their 7-game losing streak heading into the All-Star game was a sign of things to come and they would end up fading into the distance much like the 2003 Kansas City Royals.
Not only did the Rays not go away, they excelled. And yes, the painful thing they did so on the right arm of one Matt Garza.
I still believe time has yet to tell who got the better of the Twins-Rays deal, but if you believe in short-term returns, then the Rays are laughing to the bank (I’ll assume, anyhow, that this playoff push has allowed them to make SOME profit at the Trop, anyway). The irony with Garza, of course, is that in an organization that would sooner part with a kidney than give up a young pitching prospect, Garza was the one guy the Twins deemed expendible.
Oops.
Lemme guess…is it cause he’s a power pitcher? Well, no, Liriano and Santana could be classified as power pitchers. Ahh, I remember, it’s because his attitude didn’t comport with the “Twins way”.
Look, as I said, I’m not prepared to write-off the trade as a bust for the Twins by any stretch. I also realize that pitching is far from our greatest concern. Still, Matt Garza has been nothing short of awesome for the Rays, and this week we found he also happens to be very clutch.
But then again so was Blackburn in Game 163.
As for Jason Bartlett, some of my Floridian friends swear he’s the team MVP, but I’m not buying it. The guy hits .235 with no power and still makes a lot of errors. He’s a good shortstop, don’t get me wrong, but we’ll be okay without him.
Yes it’s been painful to watch the playoffs without the Twins. Yes, the Rays have eased that pain by disposing of the most undesirable team in baseball (complete with their undesirable fans). The fact that they are doing it with some of our boys doesn’t kill the joy for me.
So I’ll take the Rays in 5.
Look…the Rays, in my mind, dismantled a team as much as you possibly could dismantle one in a seven game series. They were seven outs away from completing a mammoth beat-down of the defending champs. Then, after blowing Game 5, they found a way to come out of the series on top (I had them as underdogs after the Game 5 collapse). So bottom line is if they were that dominate against the Red Sox, I think they will be equally superior to the Phillies.
One more thing…I watched ESPN’s season ending web gems awards show tonight…
Punto had the No. 8 web gem of the year…congrats Nicky and Gardy!
“Not only did the Rays not go away, they excelled. And yes, the painful thing they did so on the right arm of one Matt Garza.”
Yup. That right arm of Matt Garza that went 0-2 with a 4.52 in 5 September starts, only once going longer than 5 innings. Or that great power arm that had fewer K’s per 9 innings than Liriano, Baker, or Slowey.
“The irony with Garza, of course, is that in an organization that would sooner part with a kidney than give up a young pitching prospect, Garza was the one guy the Twins deemed expendible.
Oops. ”
Guess what! He WAS expendable. The Twins have 3 guys who are as good, if not better, than Matt Garza. The Twins didn’t think that Garza was worse than guys like Blackburn or Perkins. They just dealt from a pile of strength to address a weakness. Do you think the Rays were going to take one of those two for Young?
“Still, Matt Garza has been nothing short of awesome for the Rays,”
Really? Awesome? I mean, he’s been good, but he’s the third best pitcher on his team. He’d be 3rd or 4th best on the Twins. I’m not going to go through the other teams, but a 3rd starter isn’t what I would call awesome.
I didn’t like that Garza was the one the Twins decided to trade. Of course that’s pretty easy to say after an ALCS MVP award. I was happy for him, though.
I predict that if he has another dominant start in the WS, the Garza / Beckett (Marlins) comparisons are going to start coming from the national media. Can’t you just hear it?……..
A good way to evaluate the trade (thus far) is to think about which team would make it again in reverse.
With all the hype Garza’s going to get, we’d have to throw Mauer in the reverse deal to get the Rays to bite……
Now, if someone figures out why Bill Smith wants to trade for or sign a free agent reliever, when the team has an excess at the major league level, please let me know…
Wait, I thought BS was a moron for not trading for a proven middle reliever in 2008. Wasn’t that the reason the Twins didn’t make the postseason? Because they were just One-Arm (TM) away…
I do wish somebody would provide a schedule for this random contradictory mood changes.
I respectfully submit for all of those who’ve spent much of the year saying “where did you hear or read that Delmon has been a distraction or bad clubhouse guy” you might want to start with this article.
That article is nothing new. And I still pay it no attention. I’ve heard nothing of Young having problems with the Twins.
T,
because some people were asking for relievers in August (including journalists), it does not mean that it was a consensus opinion. As a matter of fact, the bullpen ERA in September was 3.68, which was drugged down by Guerrier and yesterday Eddie. With Neshek returning, the Twins have way too many relievers to get another. As is, they need to get rid of a couple, in addition to the free agents, and there are not any easy targets out there…
You all just don’t get it! Garza had one big game! Big whoop, he just happens to be on a team that has an extraordinary amount of young talent so he got a chance to win a big game and did so. We are the only team that I can think of that has a close to as much young talent as the Rays so we all better get used to looking at the Garza/Young trade for years to come. The Twins and Rays will be elite teams in the AL for several years to come and we’ll draw many comparisons. I guess we should all forget who was rated the very best baseball prospect in the country for two years(Young). WE should all cry and be upset that a pitcher who didn’t work well within the twins system went some where else and prospered and all we got in return is the best prospect in baseball! Then all he did was hit .290 at age 22. Man we got screwed because nobody ever gets better after the age of 22!
thrylos 98
Whats wrong with the twins looking for relief help? What if Neshek doesn’t return to form or gets hurt again? Who do we have in the system that can insure that we don’t have another BP breakdown next year? Just curious to hear what you have to say because you usually make good points.
Whenever you trade one young player for another young player, you are going for long-term benefit. If you want to get a player who is going to be a dominant force and a team-leader right away, then you go get a vetern. The Twins traded a 24-year-old for a 22-year-old. You can’t judge the trade after one season. Delmon hit .290 and Garza was 11-9 in 2008. Good, respectable numbers that are about what you would expect for players of their experience. It seems potential means everything for the Garza worshipers but nothing for the Delmon haters.
thrylos, the problem the Twins ran into in 08 was they had a number of young players without options…meaning they had to let certain guys ride or force a trade when they weren’t ready to (meaning they get very little in return).
If they still have a glut of young players that are running a tad short on options going into 2009, would it not be wise to trade a few to fill a need elsewhere rather than risk letting another team take them without having to give much in the way of anything back?
And as far as I’m concerned, Bartlett has NOT made the Twins look stupid. At all. I’ve comparred the numbers before, and he was almost identical to Punto production wise.
The only reason Bartlett gets any sort of mention as part of “The Trade” is because the Rays media have done with him what people here often complain is being done with Punto.
I don’t care what they say he may or may not have done. You think that Morneau gets “overlooked” in favor of Mauer? Well crap…they’ve got Longoria over there and are lavishing attention all over Bartlett.
T:
The Rays were a mess at SS before Bartlett came to them. Their standards were much lower than the Twins. If we had given them Punto, HE might have been the Rays MVP this year.
shameless,
I think that the ‘bullpen breakdown’ in 2008 is close to an urban legend. Here are the month by month numbers in starter ERA, bullpen ERA and OPS (along with the Twins’ record that month)
month record starters ERA relievers ERA OPS
april 14-14 4.74 3.54 .666
may 15-13 4.43 3.94 .740
june 17-11 4.70 3.24 .770
july 15-10 4.28 5.21 .802
august 17-12 3.09 4.13 .771
sept 11-15 4.92 3.68 .739
(hope that formats ok)
Yes the bullpen had a horrid July. Addition by subtraction (no Bassie, no Livan in the rotation), and the addition of Mijares helped the pen finish strong. The problem with the pen is not talent per se. It is use of talent. If you have a lefty with 1.63 ERA of the season and a .221 BAA RHB, you should not keep him in only to face lefties. If you have people who failed in high leverage situations repeatedly (Rincon, Bass, Guerrier late) you do not put them in high leverage situations again, unless they can prove they can get outs in low leverage situation.
Next year, if nothing changes and the free agents, these are the bullpen arms:
Nathan
Mijares
Neshek (?)
Crain
Guerrier
Breslow
Bonser
Humber
you need 7 for a 12 man pitching staff. You got 8. If Neshek does not come in form you got 7 (Plus Korecky, Slama and Delaney in the wings).
If you look at the above table, clearly the reason for the miserable September was the rotation primarily and the batting secondary. That’s where Smith should focus… I am not sure that Perkins is a starter (actually in pitch to pitch situational data, he was even less effective than Bonser last year). Perkins and his 1.5 pitches can be serviceable in the pen. A fifth starter needs to be found not a reliever…
T,
agreed up to a point. But they let Bass ride too long. From the players who are on the bubble, Bonser and Humber are out of options in 2009. I wouldn’t mind seeing them both traded (as a matter of fact, Bonser for Khalil Greene might make wonderful sense), but still the bullpen is not broken, if used properly…
btw, speaking of Punto, given the contract that Ellis signed with the A’s (2+1/$20M), does anyone else think that Punto is unsignable by the Twins?
From the SF Giants mailbag:
” continue to hear rumors that the Twins want to unload Delmon Young to the Giants. As a Giants fan who lives in Minneapolis, I think this is a great idea. Twins fans are upset with Young because he didn’t immediately produce, but he’s only 23 with a huge upside and a great arm and he batted right around .300 this year (.290, with 10 home runs and 69 RBIs). Let’s not give away the farm for him, though — we don’t need to mention the A.J. Pierzynski trade, do we?
– Jeff B., Minneapolis
My understanding is that the Twins covet Cain and would be willing to relinquish Young for him. But it’s unlikely that the Giants would make that deal, one for one. ”
Good thing is that the Giants wouldn’t probably do that trade.
the Twins covet Cain
this is probably a joke.
Cain would be most likely a 5th starter with the Twins based on his ERA and WHIP (in the lesser league). Plus he is not the type of pitcher the Twins covet (he walks people too much and does not throw strikes). And he is arbitration eligible. I don’t know how people get to these kind of trade rumors…
Seeing Balfour this post-season reminded me of a time when the twins could go Balfour in the seventh, Juiced Rincon in the eighth, and Nathan in the ninth. All those guys had a legit shot at striking out the side in their one inning and that’s the type of BP I’d like to see! Who do we have with that kind of stuff currently in our BP if Neshek should run into problems next year? Bonser has the stuff but no consistancy. Crain just never has evolved into the strike out pitcher that some thought he would. Mijares shows promise. Guerrier proved that he’s nothing more than midle reliever this year. I guess I’m skeptical that these guys can get it done. Will Slama be ready next year? How about Delaney?
Shameless,
here are some scouting numbers of the Twins’ pen this year, along with the league average and some premier closers (italics) for comparison:
123 innings % of complete innings pitched:
Mijares 75%
Breslow 54%
Mariano Rivera 52%
Nathan 49%
Crain 42%
Guerrier 40%
Bonser 38%
Korecky 36%
Fransisco Rodrigez 36%
Brad Lidge 36%
league average31%
% of outs that are K’s in 4 pitches or less:
Mariano Rivera22%
Brad Lidge20%
Fransisco Rodriguez16%
Bonser 15%
Crain 14%
Nathan 13%
Breslow 12%
Guerrier 12%
league average11%
Korecky 6%
Mijares 0%
The pitchers in the Twins pen are better in striking out the side than the league average and much better (even than elite closer) in having 123 innings. I think that they will be ok, if they are used properly.
Slama and Delaney are playing in the AFL right now. I am sure that they will be in spring training and fight for a spot if Neshek cannot pitch…
Bottom line on Delmon:
Yes, he’s only 23 and may get better…but only as a hitter. He will NOT get better as a fielder. He is stiff, not agile, misjudges balls….simply brutal in the field. Looks and runs like a much older guy than he is. As he ages and probably puts on more weight (he has the frame and family genetics) he will only get worse in the field.
If Delmon is to do well in this league, it should only be as a DH. But a DH needs to hit more home runs than he currently does. Time will tell if he develops in that category.
Conclusion is you either wait for him to develop as a DH or trade him for a 3B or SS option. Hopefully someone that can both hit and field.
“this is probably a joke. ”
Why would it be a joke? Matt Cain is a very good pitcher. He just turned 24, and would be a welcome addition to any staff. Does he walk more batters than a typical Twins pitcher? Sure. But I’m sure that the Twins feel they could change his approach a bit.
Wow. Matt Cain is actually younger than Tim Lincecum. I find that amazing.
“they’ve got Longoria over there and are lavishing attention all over Bartlett.”
Why does this bother you so much? Seriously, T, you need to move on. You are starting to sound like some of the fans who feel the need to find a way to bitch about Punto all of the time. So what if he didn’t dserve it. Two years from now no one will remember (or care) who won the Rays team MVP for 2008, but everyone will remember that Longoria was ROY.
Fry Dog….What? you just don’t get it!
“The pitchers in the Twins pen are better in striking out the side than the league average and much better (even than elite closer) in having 123 innings. I think that they will be ok, if they are used properly.”
I certainly don’t want the Twins to pay big $$ for a FA reliever nor do I want them to trade any important parts for one. Relievers, other than the great ones like Nathan, are too inconsistant as a group, IMO.
Delmon may turn into a power hitter, I hope so… But as far as a fielder, he’s the worst I’ve seen in left field at the dome since Mickey Hatcher.
He runs like an old man - stiff, lumbering, no agility. Left field is a big place at the dome…we can do better. All of our outfielders are better defensively than Delmon - even Kubel.
I would rather see Delmon DH and concentrate on driving the ball more. That’s where his upside is, not playing the field…
He is stiff, not agile, misjudges balls….simply brutal in the field.
Delmon Young’s FP this year was .973 and his revised zone rating was .851. This was his first year at left. He is a right fielder, he should play there. Let’s see how his fielding was at RF last year, compared to other RFs:
2007
Delmon Young: FP .985 RZR .868
J.D. Drew: FP .977 RZR .864
Jose Guillen: FP .972 RZR .857
Brian Giles: FP .978 RZR .854
Nick Markakis: FP .994 RZR .843
Vlad Guerrero: FP .959 RZR .839
Michael Cuddyer: FP .986 RZR .823
Jermaine Dye: FP .990 RZR .807
I guess they all need to work on being less stiff and more agile…
BTW, do I see Cuddyer in the list being more brutal in the field than Young?
Twins are locked in contract-wise with Cuddyer, so they will play him. Because of that and his less than stellar stats, no one will want him either. There is still some perceived value in Delmon and he is cheap. He’s the one I would trade~
Fry Dog,
there is a lot of difference between saying that Young is more tradeable than Cuddyer and saying that he is “stiff, non-agile” and worse defensively than Cuddyer…
he’s both
Delmon is Mickey Hatcher without the personality…
(decent batting average, few home runs for a corner outfielder and a hack in the field)
While dumping Cuddyer would be the most ideal, I would rather have Span traded then Young.
But the question with Young is will the Twins allow him to develop into a power hitter? Or will be harped on for not hitting the “Twins way?”
Delmon was running around out there with a bum ankle most of the year. Sorry he didn’t do it gracefully enough.
There goes sock man talking all crazy again.
“I would rather have Span traded then Young.” !!!
Denard has to prove it more than a half season, but I think is more of a well rounded, complete player than Delmon ever will be.
Good potential as a leadoff hitter and our best defensive outfielder.
Like Delmon, Denard lacks corner outfield HR numbers….Span would actually be a better centerfielder.
If I were GM, I would move Span to center, trade Delmon and move Gomez to left field and see if his power can develop as a corner outfielder.
“Like Delmon, Denard lacks corner outfield HR numbers….Span would actually be a better centerfielder.
If I were GM, I would move Span to center, trade Delmon and move Gomez to left field and see if his power can develop as a corner outfielder.”
What difference does it make if Span is the left fielder and Gomez in center or Gomez in left and Span in center? Their offense has nothing to do with their defense. Gomez is more valuable in center - assuming he learns how to take better routes on balls - than Span is given Gomez’s speed and arm.
I’m skipping down here a little bit, so I’m not reading every post admittedly (maybe I will when I have more time)… but where do people get off thinking that Garza was some nationally-known GOD when we traded him?
Stu referred to him as the “top young pitching prospect in all of baseball?”
I wonder what Phil Hughes had to say about that. Or Clay Buchholz… you know, the chump who threw a no-hitter in his second start at the Majors. Hell, Kevin Slowey had more impressive minor league numbers than Garza. How about Brandon Morrow? Tommy Hanson? David Price?
Here’s a fun stat… going into 2006, guess where Matt Garza ranked on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects?
He didn’t make the list.
Guess where Delmon Young ranked.
Number one.
Going into 2007, Matt Garza ranked 21st. Must not have been any pitchers ahead of him, right?
Hmmm… Phil Hughes (4), Homer Bailey (5), Andrew Miller (10), Tim Lincecum (11), Yovani Gallardo (16), Mike Pelfrey (20). That’s not even including Dice-K, who was ranked #1. I ignored him because of his history in Japan.
Where was Delmon Young that year? Number three.
Yes, it’s impossible to see where Bill Smith would get off trading Matt “Call Me Nolan Ryan Jr.” Garza for Delmon Young… especially when Young hit a paltry .288 in his first full season, hitting 13 home runs and driving in 93 runs for a last-place ball club while being reputed as having one of the best arms in baseball.
As for the Jason Bartlett garbage, go look at Thrylos’ posts… the only reason people are complaining whatsoever is because the Florida writers named Bartlett the team’s MVP. His numbers weren’t even great, and the only reason they likely did it was to make the Rays’ GM look smarter. Maddon might love Bartlett, but anyone who says that team’s MVP isn’t Evan Longoria or Carlos Pena is simply out of their gourd. Bartlett played good defense and put up garbage offensive numbers. Harris was equally as valuable to the Twins, playing three positions with solid defense and decent offense.
Also, no one comments on the second half that Jason Pridie had in AAA. Pridie put up a .326/.364/.522 second half, good for an .886 OPS, with 5 HR, 11 2B, 5 3B, 24 RBI, and 7 SB. Bill Smith has said he fully believes Pridie is MLB-ready.
But hey… none of this changes the fact that we traded the next Sandy Koufax and Ozzie Smith for the next Brian Buchanan and Bucky Dent, right?
Pete, I agree Span and Gomez are fairly close overall, but I’d give the edge to Denard for centerfield. Both are fast, with Gomer a little faster but Denard running better routes - so that’s close to a wash. Gomez arm is stronger but Denard seems more accurate…again close to a wash.
The reasons I would give the edge to Denard for CF are a few seemingly minor reasons, but in m y opinion add up over the course of a season:
1) CF should be your leader in the OF and consistently in the lineup. Both Span and Gomer have to prove it over time, but it seems Denard is a much better bet to be a regular in the batting line up than Carlos. Carlos is still too raw at the plate…and could end up a 4th outfielder-pinch runner. Span is a very good leadoff hitter in the making - and if he’s starting most games, should be the consistent guy in the OF too.
2) Denard not only runs better routes, but seems to climb fences and make catches better than Gomez….more chances for that in the Metrodome in center.
3) I don’t like the left arm in left field - better in center and a right arm in left.
4) If Gomez does develop as a hitter with power (still a ??) most power OF’s move to the corners.
5) Left field is still a large area in the Metrodome and Gomer would still be able to use his speed.
I think people may have a bias for Gomer in CF and Denard somewhere else because that’s how 2008 started…but if based on what we know today, I would strongly consider making that change in Spring Training.
Steve! I agreed with you pretty good at 5:00, but you lost me at 9:00! Did you go to Happy Hour some place???
Sorry, Steve. Fry Dog must have been at Happy Hour.
That’s right, after a couple of beers, Steve and I were in complete agreement…
Gomez can’t be taken out of center field. He destroyed every other CF in the game with a .932 ZR… that’s the highest rating of ANY player (catcher and pitcher excluded, since several are 1.000 there) at his position. His fielding percentage was more average, but he’ll learn more having played a season in the Dome.
Here’s the top ZRs/RZRs of CFs in the Majors:
Gomez: .932/.946
Melky Cabrera: .917/.938
Adam Jones: .916/.953
Grady Sizemore: .909/.932
Corey Patterson: .901/.935
Shane Victorino: .899/.913
Carlos Beltran: .899/.925
Curtis Granderson: .897/.921
Mike Cameron: .892/.935
For comparison, the great Torii Hunter was 12th at .881/.889, and Denard Span posted a .908/.927 in right field.
Gomez’s RZR is worse than only one of those top defensive CFs (Adam Jones), and he’s FIFTEEN points higher than his nearest competitor in ZR. That’s the seond-biggest gap between first and second at any position in baseball as well (with the first being Adrian Beltre with a 24-point lead, hmmm… here’s a new idea, let’s trade for him). 
I really like the Fielding Bible’s Plus/Minus system for determining fielding as well…
Carlos Gomez was the top center fielder in baseball with a +33 rating this year. That’s absurd. In comparison to every other regular center fielder in baseball, Gomez made 33 plays that the league-average center fielder would not have made.
And you want to take him OUT of center field? I say Gomez’s defense is what prevents us from being able to take him out of the lineup. His bat will come around, and he’s got enough speed that it makes his low OBP slightly more tolerable, in my opinion, because of what he can do once he gets on base (even it’s rarely).
And hey, Happy Hour doesn’t sound like a bad idea… who wants to go? Haha
Steve, I could live with Gomez in CF provided he’s in the lineup most everyday. If not, I think I still would err on the side of Span (again, if he sticks in the batting line up too - which seems more likely at least right now).
So…if Gomez does stay in CF - what would you do with Span, Cuddy, Young and Kubel..? Rotate like the Angels did last year?
I still think Young/Kubel are the overall weakest fielders of the above group - that’s why I would switch DY to either DH or trade him. Neither are perfect, but if I could get Beltre or Cain for some combination of Delmon, I think I’d still do it.
