Finding a level of optimism for 2009
Posted on January 21st, 2009 – 9:28 AMBy Howard
Here’s what I’m thinking about as spring training approaches:
*The Twins start spring training with a young starting rotation that makes me pretty happy. Gardy can go Baker/Liriano/Slowey/Perkins/Blackburn and not feel too uncomfortable. I trust that in their second full seasons of starting, Perkins will have more mental presence on the mound and Blackburn will figure out that he has enough stuff to get through the bad times instead of falling apart. I trust there will be young pitchers to give them a challenge. The other three have the ability to be All-Star selections.
*The end game in the bullpen is unsettled but interesting. Eric Gagne or Brandon Lyon would be a nice addition, although I like that Jesse Crain went into Rochester this week and said he didn’t think a move was necessary because he expects to take back the eighth inning. Hope he can back up the talk. Nathan/Gagne-Lyon/Crain/Boof/Mijares/Breslow/Guerrier/RADickey. That doesn’t make me too nervous, for reasons we can discuss as reporting time grows closer.
*I expect Delmon Young to have a full season that’s more like the second half of 2008 than the first half. I’ll take his numbers from June 7th on — .304/.346/.443 — and I expect Carlos Gomez to be a smarter offensive player while still providing highlight-reel (and steadier) defense. I want to believe that Denard Span is really a .387 on-base percentage guy, although a slight dropoff won’t surprise me, and I want to believe that Michael Cuddyer will have a useful season.
*The left side of the infield still makes me queasy regardless of what current combination gets thrown out there. I know the Twins are totally down on the giving up draft choices, but Orlando Hudson intrigues me in a move-Alexi Casilla-to-shortstop scenario. People who know more than I do are unsure why Hudson, 31, hasn’t been signed yet, although Ken Rosenthal of FOX says he’s still be looking for a deal of at least three years. If Hudson backs off that, he would be the kind of investment consistent with (1) improving the Twins on offense and not hurting them on defense, (2) adding a constructive veteran presence and (3) acknowledging that people will expect aggressive and reasonable acquisitions in the Target Field era. With Hudson at second and Casilla at short, which is thought to be his best position, I’ll take a random choice at third for now.
*How good are the Twins if Mauer and Morneau are solid without being MVP candidates? To me, Morneau was the league MVP for five out of six months in 2008, although he chose the wrong month to disappear from the highlights. Mauer was consistently excellent, and I wonder how often we can expect that kind of year-long offense and defense from a catcher. That means other players are going to have to bring a little more game in 2009. Just being realistic.
*Can Jason Kubel be a 30 home-run guy if he gets another 100 plate appearances? He went from one homer every 36 plate appearances in 2007 to one every 26 in 2008. Can he keep improving? And can the Twins have the discipline to settle on him as the almost-everyday DH while dividing the three outfield spots among Young/Gomez/Span/Cuddyer?
*Those are my January thoughts, which are more confident than the ones I had at this time last year. One other thing, in my real job (as gatekeeper of startribune.com), I’ve returned the linescore from last year’s playoff game to the Twins page. It should be a reminder of how close the Twins were last season and stir up the emotional combination of frustration and hope that makes baseball worth the time and effort.
154 Responses to "Finding a level of optimism for 2009"
Oh so many things I question here but I’ll only bring up one for now. If we bring in Orlando Hudson (which I’m not opposed to), what do we do with Punto? Do you really think the Twins would pay $4.25 million for a utility infielder? With that salary, he’s starting at SS no matter what unless he utterly fails early in the season.
* Good points on the rotation. For the first time in a while, the Twins appear set to enter the season WITHOUT a Ponson/Ortiz/Hernandez type “vet” to serve as the mentor. I have my concerns about Blackburn, but after his preformance in Game 163, I get the feeling he’s ready to turn that corner you talked about.
* Pass on Gagne. He reminds me too much of Guardado. (Well, except that Gagne could be counted on at one point)… I wouldn’t complain about a guy like Lyon. Mijares won’t be lights out like he was in 08, if only because by then word will get out.
* Kubel is the everyday DH. And if Cuddyer can get back on the horse after an injury-plauged 08…he should be able to provided enough support to help both Moreneau and Kubel chase that 30 HR mark. I think most of Morneau’s problems came from not taking a day off. And if the Twins are set on bringing all four of Young/Span/Gomez/Cuddyer up to the Dome in April, then I suppose you can use Cuddy at 1B on days when Morneau needs rest. (And I don’t mean DH rest, I mean day OFF)
* Span and Casilla had stellar 08s. But I agree that there’s likely going to be some regression. Not as bad as Ford, who appeared to hit a brickwall after his breakout season…but enough that we’ll likely see the 1/2 punch of Span/Casilla shuffled a bit in the lineup (Casilla likely will be hitting 8th/9th by the end of the year)
*If Mauer and Morneau come back with the seasons they had last year, the Twins should be in the hunt again. The question marks will be the supporting cast. Guys like Cuddyer, Kubel, and Young.
* I’ve started hearing rumblings that Brandon Roberts may actually be available. Don’t know how that compares to Hudson, but I know it’s somebody the Twins have been high on. Put him at 2B, move Punto out of SS (and possibly include in a deal somewhere?) and you’ve got a fun little lineup improvement.
* I can live with Punto in the lineup, IF the Twins can get somebody with some pop at 3B. If not in the offseason, then at the deadline if it looks like they’re stlil in it. I’m still surprised that NOBODY appears to have made an offer to Wigginton at this point.
I saw this headline on Startribune.com…is it true?
“Howard seeks $18M in arbitration”
Tell me the Captain of the 220ers isn’t in demand mode…especially during the economic disaster we find ourselves in!
In all seriousness, I agree with just about everything Howard wrote, with a couple of caveats…
Unfortunately with Kubel, once thought to be our best hitting prospect, it now boils down to HR:AB ratio. On a team that suddenly can’t hit the long ball, we’ll take all the help we can get in that regard, I guess, but I don’t think the manager is interested in giving Kubes another 100 ABs if they come at the expense of hitting .250 with no speed and plenty of K’s against lefties. So as I said in the previous post, the signing of Kubel gets a mere shoulder shrug from me.
The pitching is THE reason for optimism in 2009. Yes, we’d like Morneau to give us another MVP run and we’d like Mauer to become more than a singles-hitting on-base guy, and we’d like the youth movement of Young / Denard / Go-go to take off, and all of this is possible, but the backbone of any successful baseball team is pitching and we appear to have that. So even as Bill Smith sat on his hands this offseason, there’s still hope to contend in 2009.
Plus…what about those Saturday home uni’s??? Gotta love that!
I totally agree with Howard’s take on the left side of the infield. Signing Punto and making him our everyday SS is definitely hair-pulling material. The failure to acquire a serious hitting thirdbasemen (not a defensive one as Joe C. seems to value) is equally maddening. Oh yeah, and I still want to pitch the idea of signing a certain free agent utility player who can play the corners, RF, and be a positive influence on the bench (if he and the manager have patched things up, that is).
Other than that, I wouldn’t give Howard his 18m. As great as 220 is, I just think that price might be on the high side.
I think I would take a flyer on Crede, something like 1-yr 5-6 mil. add Gagne at 1-yr for 3-4 mil and I like the Twins chances. I also expect Delmon to have a very good year, remember he is only 21 maybe 22 he just needs some more plate appreances and his talent will show.
You can’t give Kubel the full time DH role until he proves he can hit LHP with some consistency. That is the problem with Kubel at this point in his career. You can’t add those 100 AB’s unless they are against LHP. It is up to Kubel to prove he can do it, Gardy will give him some chances to prove that, but not many.
I feel good about the team and think this team has a chance to win the division. I would feel much better if we upgraded one of these spots 2nd/SS/3rd.
JoeG.,
If Hudson joins the Twins, Gardy might move Punto to 3B for a defensive upgrade from Harris/Buscher.
That would NOT be an offensive (power) upgrade, but Gardy chooses defense over offense to a fault.
I figure if Howard gets 18m, then Rand has to pull in at least 90m, being that he posts roughly 5 times a day.
But anyway, back to baseball…
I agree that the reason this season is looked at as a possible success is because of the depth of the pitching rotation and way back end of the bullpen (Nathan). I wouldn’t be relatively surprised if either Slowey, Liriano, or Baker make the all star team. My money is on Scooter, as he took a huge step last year.
The only thing leaving me unsettled is the outfield. (Yes, more unsettling than the left side of the infield, but hey I actually like Punto). Anyhoo, there are 5 guys for 4 spots. Defensively Span, Gomez, Cuddy is the best outfield. I like the idea of splitting DH between The Ninja Turtle and Kubel. However, I don’t know if Delmon will continue to improve if his at bats are limited. At the same time, he is a headache defensively. Bottom line, I trust Gardy to figure it out and play the hot hand when needed.
On the O-Dog landscape. That’s a pipe dream for me. I’ve been pinning for him since free agency started. I love the idea of him and Casilla as a DP combo. I could see the optimism jump higher if that signing takes place. Make it happen Billy.
AaronK: With Kubel, it’s almost a chicken/egg scenario. Kubel can’t get better against lefties if he doesn’t get more ABs against them. And he can’t get more ABs against them unless he hits better against them…
SK77, you’re dead on. Why we haven’t taken a shot at Crede is beyond me. When he’s healthy he’s a 30 HR guy. This team signed Tony Batista, but Crede is too much of a risk?????
I really believe that we can expect Punto to fail as the everyday SS. Anytime there’s been pressure of Nicky to perform with the bat he’s struggled. The pressure of living up to his contract and the fact that he must know that the fans really don’t want him will be to much for LNP. O-dog(Hudson) would be a nice 2 year addition. He’ll hit for some power, play good D and he won’t clog the base paths. Once the spot light is off Punto will recover and settle back into his obscure utility role and start tot hit .275 again.
T,
I agree with you, but this is the major leagues and he isn’t exactly a rookie. If he hasn’t proven he can hit LHP by now, then he is going to have to prove it in limited AB’s. Just my 2 cents…
-A
[…] A Fan’s View – […]
T
I think you misremembered. It’s Brian Roberts not Brandon Roberts. And the O’s want way to much young talent back in return for him.
T,
about that Kubel against lefties thing:
2008 OPS against LHP:
Kubel: .704
Cuddaver: .694
Howard,
Perkins will have more mental presence on the mound
the problem with Perkins is that he is having one and a half pitches at this point. Livan had a lot of presence on the mount but not the stuff. Unless Perkins develops his pitches, I expect him to bomb.
I don’t think Crede will ever be the player he once was even though he’s only 31 or 32. But imagine how sweet our infield would be with a healthy Crede at 3B, Casilla at SS, O-Dizzle at 2B, the King JM at 1B, and GI Joe at Catcher. Along with our supremely talented young outfielders and pitching we’d be a real force until these guys hit free agency.
Thrylos…
When Perkins first came up he had a nasty curve. I also remember seeing it early last season. Why did the Twins have him abandon that pitch? Was it the cause of his shoulder problems? Was he starting to experience discomfort last year and that’s why they told him to throw this harder breaking pitch(which doesn’t seem to work or move).
Hudson will be better than Punto in all likelihood. The problems with bringing Hudson in are:
* Punto at 3B as the everyday starter or Casilla on the bench or in Rochester
* Buscher and Harris will be the only players on the bench along with the extra OF and Redmond (not much fielding options there) and Tolbert in the minors
* Still no RH power bats unless Young and Gomez develop and Cuddaver pulls out a Lazarus (heck he is good with tricks, I hear)
Signing Wigginton would be a better option because he fills in the one glaring need (3B with a power RH bat), relocates Buscher where he belongs (minors), leaves the middle infield intact and allows for better options off the bench (Tolbert/Harris)
Why did the Twins have him abandon that pitch?
I don’t know if it was the Twins or Perkins that instigated the abandonment of his curve, but opponents hit about .340 off it..
T,
I agree regarding giving Morneau more rest this season, especially early in the season.
I would like them to treat Morneau like Mauer and give him a day off about once a week.
Great post. I think optimism is just what fans need at this time of year. The Twins should be an entertaining team to watch this year.
I also like an infield with Hudson, Casilla, and whoever at 3B over the current infield, but as much as I like Hudson as a player, he is not the RH thumper this team could use. I don’t like the idea of signing Crede precisely because it smacks too much of the Batista/Cirillo/Lamb signings. That is not the way to go, imo. I share Howard’s optimism in most other respects.
thrylos: The FO signed Punto to be the starting SS. If they aquired a player to replace Casilla at 2B, Casilla would either be shifted to SS or dealt.
Punto should not play 3B unless an injury screws something up.
thry, for wahtever its worth, I share your reasoning on Wiggington. Based on what we’ve heard this offseason, though, it appears to be nothing more than a pipe dream. I continue to hope, though, that Bill Smith is just waiting for the market to soften before he makes his move.
I’m glad to hear Crain’s moxy, but excuse me for being pessimistic after what happened last year. This team needs to add 1-2 relievers. I love the Mijares upsdie, but 10 innings is a pretty small sample size.
And adding Wiggy at the reduced price he will likely go for makes just too much sense.
thrylos -
“2008 OPS against LHP:
Kubel: .704
Cuddaver: .694″
Cuddyer had a whole 81 PA’s against lefties last year. In 2007, he had a .865 OPS against lefties, and in 2006 he had a .894. I’m pretty sure it’s safe to say that Cuddyer hits left handers better than Kubel does.
thanks Pete for looking that up. I figured Thrylos was cherry picking a small sample size again, but I was too lazy to research it. I think it’d preposterous to say Kubel is a better hitter against lefties than Cuddy.
Cuddyer had a whole 81 PA’s against lefties last year.
And Kubel had 115. Not much more than Cuddyer. I am not sure that past success can be a forecaster of future in this case. It looks like Cuddyer might have lost a step or two. I hope that I am wrong but last year he was awful.
Ohh please with the Kubel vs Cuddy LHP argument. Kubel has never proven he can hit LHP. End of discussion.
If Cuddy struggles again this year then you may have an argument. However, he was injured most of last year and never had a chance to establish himself. I would be shocked if he doesn’t outhit Kubel against LHP. SHOCKED.
That doesn’t mean I am a huge Cuddy fan. In fact I am sick thinking he will be starting and taking AB’s away from Young. He should be the DH against LHP if you ask me.
“And Kubel had 115. Not much more than Cuddyer.”
Which really isn’t an argument in your favor. We are talking small sample sizes here. 115 is obviously better than 81, but in 2007, Kubel had 87 PAs against lefties with an OPS of .667.
Don’t get me wrong - I think given the at bats, Kubel will continue to improve against left handers - perhaps to the point where you can leave him in against most of the pitchers he faces. But I would be stunned if Cuddyer hits as poorly as he did last year if he is healthy this season.
I guess Kubel’s never been hurt either?
Kubel has been a consistently better hitter than Cuddyer in a shorter time period… Cuddyer had 1 ok/good season…other than that, he’s below avg for a RF.
Kubel wont ever be Mauer vs LHP, but he would suffice just fine if left alone and given the extra ABs… FREE JASON KUBEL
4 starting outfielders is not to many, just look at last year. I like them all and think Gardy will weave them in to the lineup in a way that will benefit them individually and teamwise.
Can’t Cuddy play a little 1st or am I wrong about that? Mourneau needs a break once in a while, so his legs aren’t dead in Sept.
HAVE FUN !!! GO TWINS !!!
MarkW,
Correct Kubel has been a better hitter than Cuddyer overall. However, he has only been a better hitter because he hits almost exclusively against RHP. He is a train wreck at the plate against LHP.
Cuddy is a superior hitter against LHP. This idea that Kubel will magically get better with more AB’s is nice, but if you actually watch his AB’s you will be less convinced. When he connects he can hit it far, but he looks completely lost at the plate 95% of the time against LHP. I have not seen anything that gives me the impression he is on the verge of fixing this problem.
Now, he rakes RHP and he needs to be in the lineup every single time we face a RH.
If you’re the gatekeeper, who’s the keymaster?
I for one believe Crain will be ready to step up. A lot of guys would not have even tried to pitch last year after having rotator cuff and elbow surgery the previous offseason. What we saw from Crain was an inconsistent FB–one day, he’d throw 98, the next day, he’d throw 90. And I don’t think Andy or Gardy knew how to deal with that. I chalk that up to lingering shoulder issues. If so, he should be able to consistently get back into the high 90s this year. And it’s a good thing he threw as many innings as he did last year. Even though a lot of them were ugly, it helped him build his arm strength back up.
“Kubel has been a consistently better hitter than Cuddyer in a shorter time period… Cuddyer had 1 ok/good season…other than that, he’s below avg for a RF.”
And how many ok/good seasons has Kubel had?
I’m a fan of Kubel. Probably one of the bigger Kubel supporters on these boards. But to expect Kubel to hit lefties better than Cuddyer is silly.
The sad reality is at some point the Twins just need to realize that while their farm system is stellar it just doesn’t produce enought talent across the board to field a contender. How many times in the past few years have we found ourselves with two or three holes to fill to seriously contend and the Twins don’t fill them beacause of the $$ or having to give up a draft pick.
Orlando Hudson would be great for us. Juan Cruz is way better than Lyon or Gagne, but god forbid we give up a pick that MIGHT play for us in 2013. With the prices out there right now this may be one time in the history of the franchise we can afford to sign someone, but we won’t. “FREE JASON KUBEL.” Get a clue! “TRADE KUBEL!” Oh that’s right no one want’s him because everybody else in basball can’t figure out why Gardy has such a man-crush on a guy doesn’t drive in runs consistenly and can’t play the field. If we’re giving $3.5 to Kuble to DH why not just give $5 to Adam Dunn and get a REAL RBI guy. The Twins will never seriously contend unless they part with a high draft pick once every 5-years to fill a CURRENT need. We had two holes to fill at the end of season and we still have them. It takes two phone calls and a set of balls to fix this.
“why not just give $5 to Adam Dunn and get a REAL RBI guy. ”
Because Adam Dunn is NOT going to come that cheaply.
Five bucks doesn’t go as far as it used to!
Jesse Crain’s problems have nothing to do with velocity or arm injuries. His problem is, as Reusse says, that he has “nothing beneath the left nipple”.
I cringe whenever I see him come in because it always means trouble. His speciality is coming in when the Twins have just rallied to tie a game or take the lead and giving that lead right back to the other team. He consistently just kills us.
1. Nick Punto is a terrific fielder and an excellent base runner. He really only needs to bat around .250 to be a successful player. He is a terror in the field and his play really motivates the entire team to do well.
2. Orlando Hudson is just okay. He’s not an exciting addition, nor is there any guarantee that he would be an improvement over Casilla(Did you guys not see Casilla play last year? He was terrific and can only get better).
3. Stop calling Orlando the O-Dog. Its cheesy.
4. Nobody has any faith in Brian Buscher? He had a pretty good season at the plate, and the reason they signed Punto to be the starting SS was to extend the range at that position so that 3B wouldn’t have as much terrain to cover. I think these guys are going to be pretty competitive.
PUNTO 4 LIFE!
The sad reality is at some point the Twins just need to realize that while their farm system is stellar it just doesn’t produce enought talent across the board to field a contender.
I thought contending five out of the last seven years is proof that the farm system is good enough to field a contender. Do you want more than that?
Power hitting lefties hitting LHP is a skill that takes time to learn
Last year was the age 26 season for Kubel. During that season he hit lefties at a rate of .232/.330/.374
Morneau at his age 26 season (2007) he hit lefties at a rate of .228/.283/.411
One of the most prolific power LHB that ever played with the Twins (and had a rap of not being able to hit lefties), in his age 26 season (the last with the Twins) he hit lefties at a rate of .203/.256/.381. Once he became a full time player with another club allowing to see several lefties (at age 28 entering his prime) Davis Ortiz hit lefties at a rate of .302/.362/.532
Kubel hasn’t yet reach his prime and has to see more lefties to succeed hitting them. Arguably, considering his age, he is ahead of where David Ortiz was hitting lefties and close to where Morneau was.
“His speciality is coming in when the Twins have just rallied to tie a game or take the lead and giving that lead right back to the other team.”
Why don’t people just do a little research before they post something?
If this were the ’specialty’ of Jesse Crain, don’t you think he would have more than 10 blown saves in his career? There were 2 guys in the majors last year that had 9 blown saves. In a single season!
If you don’t like Crain, that’s fine. But come up with a better reason than your make believe ’specialty’.
“Kubel hasn’t yet reach his prime and has to see more lefties to succeed hitting them.”
Arguing that Kubel should bat against lefties and saying that Kubel will hit lefties better than Cuddyer next year are two different things.
I would like to point out again that 3rd base got 91 RBI for us last year from the 7 hole. Buscher is a .316 hitter against righties and Harris is .295 against lefties. That ain’t bad and they will get 10 dingers between them. I rarely make predictions but that is one of them. The other is that Casilla fully healthy and with another good year of winter ball under his belt will make a run at an all star spot. Between him and Span I would bet on Casilla. He really seems to work hard on improving his skills and his improvement from 2007 is already astounding. He’s got a nice swing, a good eye, and pretty good pop. Why do people think he won’t improve?
Yes, the sample size for Mijares was small but he was coming off a broken pitching elbow and he has pretty good stuff.
O-Dog, O-Dizzle? What’s the difference?
I think what is being suggested here is using both Casilla and Hudson in the infield if they had him, moving Casilla to SS. I’ve also seen talk elsewhere about asking Hudson to move to SS, but that is obviously an unconventional switch. He is an outstanding defender however and has had an OPS+ over 100 for each of the past 3 seasons albeit in somewhat limited at bats. Busher is fine as a situational hitter off the bench, but he can’t field. And seen his splits lately? Punto is punto. He is, has always been, and always will be, a utility infielder.
Thrylos…
opponents hit .340 off it but lefties have a hard time seeing it. Perk had a lot harder time getting lefties out last year after he abandon the curve.
Pete D,
In order to blow a save, you have to be put into a rule-mandated save situation.
Crain (and most everyone in the Twins bullpen not named Joe Nathan) was seldom put in that position.
But prior to his 2007 arm issues, he was a pretty reliable setup man.
Pete D
You watch Dunn will sign a 3-year deal in the neighborhood of $15-20 million.
Big O
Hudson’s addition would move Casilla to short and move Punto the sub/defensive role he would have on 90% of contending teams.
I agree the jury is still out on Buscher. His teammates seem to want him there and he may get better.
I could not disagree with Howard more on Gagne. I saw him in person twice last year and he was BRUTAL! He’ll get shelled in the dome. If they Twins sign that guy it is a sign Bill Smith is an idiot. The national media and the rest of baseball will be laughing at us.
Don’t get me wrong - I would LOVE to see Billy S. get the thumb out his backside and add another bat and an arm for the pen. But, I can live with the current roster for this season. However, when they move into the new ballpark, I don’t just expect them to make some moves, I DEMAND that they make some moves. That’s what they promised when the legislature approved the ballpark. If they don’t do something significant next year, I say we light some torches and storm the castle.
I grew up in northern Minnesota,now live in Colorado but still watch and root for the twins. My take on third is maybe revisit with the Rockies Atkins for Cuddy trade. This was a possible trade looked at a few months ago. I thought the problem was the Rockies wanted young pitching. Cuddy has been injury prone, Atkins hits the long ball.
Shookit, would you trade Aaron Hicks for Juan Cruz even up? That’s one of the risks. The other major risk is meeting his salary demands, which brings with it attendant risks of increased salary demands from others. Keeping first round picks is smart.
I think Crain will be better this year it’s Matty G i’m more worried about but maybe putting him back into his usual role might help. I dont think it will happen but the only two signings the Twins might make yet are Crede and Gagne and i like them both.
I’m not sure I’d call myself optimistic about 2009, but I certainly feel better about things than I did a year ago. Of course, I temper the enthusiasm by remembering I was feeling pretty optimistic heading in to 2007 after a somewhat surprisingly successful 2006, too… and we know how that worked out.
On the subject of Hudson… I’m a bit confused (what else is new?).
If he’d be a strong addition offensively and not a significant drop defensively, why wouldn’t it be just fine to move Punto to 3B to get Hudson in the lineup? In other words… if Hudson could play 3B and you’d be all in favor of a Casilla-Punto-Hudson infield, what difference does where they play in the infield make?
If you’re getting the offensive production out of your 2B that you would normally want to see out of a 3B… who cares that it’s coming from a different defensive position?
In my mind… what’s important is that we get more offensive production. If that comes from a new 3B, terrific. But if it comes from a new 2B and we shift Casilla and Punto around… I’m fine with that, too.
I just don’t understand the hang-up people have over what offensive role a 3B (or a corner OF, or a catcher, or…) has to play. I want some speed and OBP ability at the top and bottom of my order (8-9-1-2) and I want guys who can drive the ball to the gaps and, on occasion, over the wall in the middle of the order (3 through 7). As long as I can field a defense that can run, catch and throw without any glaring weaknesses, I don’t care which of the offensive roles specific fielders fill.
“In order to blow a save, you have to be put into a rule-mandated save situation.
Crain (and most everyone in the Twins bullpen not named Joe Nathan) was seldom put in that position.”
Which is pretty much anytime you come into a game after the 5th inning with a lead of 3 runs or less.
Crain’s three blown saves came in games where he pitched the 8th, 11th, and 7th innings.
The Twins had 23 blown saves last year - 6 by Nathan, 4 by Guerrier, 3 by Reyes and Crain, and so on.
Bird:
Maybe not Hicks, but let’s go back…Guiteriez, Parmelee, Waldrop, Plouffe and another guy with hyphenated name in 2005 I’ve never heard of. Need I continue? The answer is YES I would give up a pick. I think outside of Reveere and Hicks we’ve not done well in round one the past 5-years. Which gets back to my original point. “Once every 5-years they need to give up a pick for a CURRENT need.” The likelyhood of any of those guys I listed being serious impact players for us is a little more than ZERO.
The impact of a guy like Cruz nailing down multiple W’s in the 8th is much higher. I understand your point, BUT AT SOME POINT the Twins need stop being married to the draft and sign a guy that help us win NOW!
Sorry, but cannot agree with Liriano as an All-Star candidate. Are you kidding me…they brought him back last year giving him “kid gloves” putting him up against very mediocre teams at best.
I’m still hopefull, but let’s see what he can do for a while in the actual rotation without Gardy picking and choosing his opponents “oh so carefully” before you prepare to give him the All Star nod.
About the third base situation:
Word out of Florida is that Uggla is on the block
that should be a guy the Twins should go after pretty hard.
Not a big fan of Uggla he strikes out waaay to much.
“Are you kidding me…they brought him back last year giving him “kid gloves” putting him up against very mediocre teams at best.”
After Liriano was called up on August 3rd, he pitched every fifth game until the final week of the season - when the Twins bumped him up a start. Can’t really control the schedule.
“My take on third is maybe revisit with the Rockies Atkins for Cuddy trade.”
This won’t ever happen because…
A) the Rockies aren’t interested in Cuddyer. Their demands started with Span, Slowey, and prospect for just Atkins. I wouldn’t give up Span, Slowey, and prospect for a single player unless it was a David Wright or Hanley Ramirez-esque player.
B) Atkins is TERRIBLE away from Coors (.232/.278/.383 with nearly as many K’s as hits).
“Word out of Florida is that Uggla is on the block”
Uggla probably is on the block, given that he’ll probably get somewhere in the neighborhood of $5 million out of arbitration, and that the Marlins make the Twins look like the Yankees. That being said, the Marlins will not let Uggla go for cheap, so you’re probably talking about a deal akin to the Span, Slowey, and prospect deal again. That would be a lot to give up, and I’m not sure I’m that eager to do that. If he could be had for, say PerkBurn, Pridie, and a couple of prospects, then I’m more interested.
Pete D, my question for you is, “Why do people use statistics that are not relevant when trying to make a point in a snotty, know-it-all way, with other posters?” I was going to tell you that to blow a save you have to pitch in a save situation, but sane beat me to it. He doesn’t pitch in save situations because he can’t handle the pressure. He is the gopher-ball king and I wouldn’t trust him with a five run lead in the ninth, much less in a save situation.
JC: I think the protests regarding Punto at 3B would be that if they brought in Hudson to play 2B/SS, with Casilla sliding over, fans would rather see Harris/Buscher platoon than Punto everyday.
Dan G,
the Marlins would probably not going to take anyone who would be eligible for arbitration within 2 years. 3-4 of Humber, Mulvey, Tolleson, Plouffe, Swarzak, Slama, Delaney, Pridie, Martin, Hughes, Tolbert etc is what they probably looking for. Not too much different than Luis Castillo (a 3 time All Star) who the Twins got for Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler from the same Marlins…
Liriano might not be an all-star this year, but he should be plenty good. In August and September last year, his line was…
58.2 IP
3.06 ERA (1.74 if you take out his two duds in September)
1.33 WHIP
9.2 K/9
Personally, I would take a guy with those stats over the course of an entire season as my 1 or 2 starter.
thyros,
You are really picking and choosing stats to try and make a point for Kubel. Yes it is true that Morneau struggled at age 26 against LHP, but you failed to point out he had an OPS of 904 the year before at age 25 against LHP.
See the difference is Morneau has proven over the course of a season that he can hit LHP. Something Kubel has NEVER proven.
Ortiz is a decent example, but he hit LHP pretty well in small AB totals in 01 1000+ OPS. He followed that up with 700+ the year after, but he wasn’t even hitting RHP well at that time. The only year where his splits were significantly different was the year you used as an example 02.
Kubel on the other hand has always displayed these giant splits. He has simply never hit LHP well. Gardy will give him some AB’s hoping he can get it, but he isn’t going to waste a season watching him hack away hoping he gets it. I mean Gardy gave him 100+ last year.
Only time will tell, but those examples don’t hold much water to me. Kubel has to prove what he can do before Gardy should feel obligated to give him AB’s on a regular basis.
I only looked at Ortiz during his Twins years, but his poor splits occurred the first few years in Boston…interestingly enough he was not getting full AB’s early on as well.
Pete D,
Saves / save opportunities:
Nathan 39/45
Crain 0/3
Guerrier 1/5
Reyes 0/3
Crain only had three save opportunities all year and blew all of them.
“If this were the ’specialty’ of Jesse Crain, don’t you think he would have more than 10 blown saves in his career?”
He has had a grand total of 12 save opportunities in his career and he has a grand total of TWO career saves in 12 attempts.
uggla would be a great pickup because he could play 3b or 2b. trade one of our 3 of’s span, gomez or young and whatever prospects to get him. he’d be here thru 2011 while mauer and morneau are in their prime. he only makes about a mill more then punto we can afford that. we have outfield prospects up the keaster in the minors.
do they sell the twins kool-aid on their web site?
sane
I’m not so sure I agree with your argument that saves/save opportunities is a fair measure. Here are two examples:
1) Crain is brought in to start the 8th with the Twins leading 3-0. He retires the side 1-2-3. Nathan comes in to pitch a scoreless 9th for the save. Crain gets no credit for either a save, a save opp or a blown save.
2) Crain is brought in to start the 7th with the Twins leading 1-0. He gives up a solo homer and leaves with the score tied at 1-1. He is credited with a blown save even if the Twins go on to win the game in the bottom of the ninth.
The save stat doesn’t give credit to a RP who pitches well if he doesn’t finish the game. Not a good stat for evaluating a MR.
Then reality sets in.
Making zero changes to a team that didn’t make the playoffs in one of the worst divisions in baseball is not grounds for optimism. I know most MN fans are fine with slightly above average regular seasons with failure or not even making the post season but if you actually think this team can be better then Smith needs to add a player or two.
Crain would be a disaster in the 8th inning. His numbers weren’t bad last year but he doesn’t throw strikes against good hitting teams in the late innings.
Buscher is a bench/fill in type player. Not the worst player in the league by any means but certainly one of the bottom 5 starting 3rd baseman in baseball.
Guerrier and Bonser were horrible last year. There is nothing that would indicate they will be better. Reality would say its more likely they’ll be worse.
Kubel isn’t going to learn how to hit lefties in the Major Leagues at age 27. there is a reason he isn’t in the lineup against tough lefties. He can’t hit good left handed pitching. That doesn’t mean he’s not a good player. Signing him made a ton of sense. But don’t say if he got more ABs against lefties he would be better. There is no proof of that and generally coached know what their players can and can’t do by 27.
Cuddyer has had exactly 1 season of being a legit hitter. That year is way more likely to be the anomoly than his other unproductive years. Its not impossible but reality would suggest he’s your #4 outfielder and its not probably that close.
As for the rest of the pitching and hitters, its likely some will take a step forward and probably some won’t be as good. With this group it probably ends up being a wash.
In the end this team is probably somewhere between 3-8 games over .500 for the season. Not good enough to make the playoffs but decent.
When you have an MVP candidate, the batting champion, Top 3 closer, good young starting pitching, and a young deep outfield, I think you should at least make the playoffs. Maybe that’s just me?
Most MN fans are fine with being above average. The front office knows this and act accordingly. They are planning on putting a slightly above average product on the field in 09.
That just doesn’t cut it for me.
saam,
My argument was NEVER that it was a good measure.
Closer’s save/Save opps can’t be compared to other relievers.
I just objected to the statement that “only 10 career blown saves” was significant.
here is another way to evaluate the pen last season:
The team lost 75 games. In only 26 of those games the starter left with a lead or a tie and the bullpen blew it. Here is who blew how many and when:
Guerrier 9 (4/7, 4/14, 6/9, 6/30, 7/8, 8/5, 8/12, 9/6, 9/11)
*Bass 4 (5/10, 5/22, 6/5, 8/4)
Crain 3 (4/15, 8/24, 8/25)
*Rincon 2 (4/25, 5/31)
Breslow 2 (8/10, 8/28)
Bonser 2 (9/2, 9/27)
*Guadardo 2 (9/3, 9/16)
Mijares 1 (9/17)
Nathan 1 (8/30)
The rest 49 loses were a mix of starter ineffectiveness and bat ineffectiveness.
take off the ones who left and other than Guerrier, the pen was fine. Guerrier was a bigger issue than I thought before I did this exercise and he really should be put in a very short leash in 2009.
sane
My bad. I should have read the entire discussion first. I ususally don’t read too far back on these blogs because the more posts I read, the more confused I get.
savvyspy
“Most MN fans are fine with being above average. The front office knows this and act accordingly. They are planning on putting a slightly above average product on the field in 09.”
That’s three unsubstantiated statements.
The rest of your post was much better.
I don’t see how anyone, let alone the writer or a baseball column, can feel that Gomez will improve at the plate when he bats .243 in Dominican winter ball. Last time I checked GOOD players tear up that league (see Casilla’s .343 average in the same league.)
That’s three unsubstantiated statements.
Simple question:
Do you think that most MN fans are fine with what the team accomplished last year?
If yes, since the team was above average and did not win anything, savvyspy’s first statement is substantiated… the other 2 are educated guesses.
Howard,
I am happy that someone finally listened to the Orlando Hudson idea I was preaching when everyone was getting their panties in a bunch over Casey Blake. I think Casilla is a better more natural short stop with his speed and his gun for an arm. I would like to pick up Crede, but feel he would only be a part time third baseman. (Which I have no problem with.) I like your optimism for the next season, but as we have all seen. It doesn’t normally go how it is supposed too. A year ago, I thought Boof would be starting for the Twins this season. I doubt the starting rotation that we begin the season with will last, so I hope some of our prospects are ready.
I am praying for Go-go to figure out how to bat. I can deal with the fielding mishaps if he could just be patient in the batter’s box, all of the naysayers would get to eat their words. I think he is potentially the most exciting player in baseball.
Thompson,
I’m not sure 74 at-bats in winter ball proves much of anything, good or bad.
thrylos,
“True” and “subtantiated” are not same.
I’m a homer. I admit it- proudly.
I’d rather feel optimistic about 2009 than get upset before the season even begins. With a good starting rotation, Joe Nathan, Mauer and Morneau, and great outfield options, there are plenty of reasons to be excited. I also don’t think Smith is planning to leave the team as it is- I’m betting we’ll all be surprised with an upcoming free-agent signing or trade late in the game.
Mn fans were somewhat satisfied with last year, but now that expectations are higher, their satisfaction with identical results this year is VERY unlikely.
Howard, you are right it doesn’t really prove anything but it only further supports that what he did at the plate over the 577 at bats he received during the regular season will likely be repeated.
My biggest question is what if Mauer or Morneau get hurt? We just expect them to finish top 5 MVP voting and win a batting title. And Morneaus slump at the end of the season was alarming… hopefully doesn’t carry over in any way.
I guess the answer is we just don’t contend if they do go down.
Pitching looks awesome, starting pitching that is. The middle relief guy from Arizona, Cruz is really the diamond in the ruff at this point in free agency. We need to bolster relief pitching. Mijares will not perform the same in 2008.
and either will Span and Casilla for that matter. Great players, but they had really good years in 08 and there is no evidence they can do it again.
My ultimate plan would be sign Cruz to a 3 year deal, it is going to be expensive but look at his hits allowed and strike outs to innings pitched. really impressive, shut down kind of stuff. Gagne would be a good 1 year risk and honestly the bullpen needs enough help that it might be best to try to sign them both. Guerrier is going to be Juan Rincon this year, actually he was Juan Rincon last year. Then just move Cuddyer to 3rd base. No one seems to talk about it anymore because Gardy doesn’t want to do it and Cuddyer doesn’t want to do it, but the defense is going to be just as good as anyone else we are going to find on free agency. It gives us a place to insert a right handed bat power bat into the order everyday and eliminates the platoon dilemma we currently have in the outfield, also gives us Kubel as the everyday DH, a concept we desperately need to establish. I swear if we still had Ortiz, we would have 2 titles since he left, probably Boston’s two titles.
Lay off Punto, he tries hard and give him the SS role everyday. The guys defense is fantastic.
Those moves I think shores the team up and makes us the best in the division. Not the league, but once you get into the playoffs anything can happen.
Remember 1987
I’m optimistic, but the things that make me less pessimistic are beyond the Twins’ control. I expect Cleveland to be better with a full year out of Fausto Carmona and Victor Martinez and a healthy year from Hafner. I also don’t expect the Tigers to be as bad as last year, though i’m looking for a big falloff from the Chisox.
Kitty:
Name one pitcher who contributed at the MLB level the year after rotator cuff surgery. Can’t, can you? To my knowledge, Crain was the first.
By comparison, Nathan had the surgery in 2000 and didn’t get back to the majors for three years. In the meantime, he posted ERAs in the 7s in AAA.
So I would not minimize Crain’s injury. The good news is, a lot of pitchers have had success two years after surgery. And the doctors said Crain likely pitched with this for two years prior to surgery. So there’s a good chance the Crain we see in 2009 is the same as the Crain we saw in 2005.
Gagne!? Are you kidding? This guy is done, and has been done for years. He’s got a jellyfish where his arm used to be.
some people do need to get real about punto’s defense. the last 4 yrs his fielding pct. has been just a tick over league ave. his range factor has been better in 2 yrs and worse in 2 yrs. the notion that he is some kind of super fielder is more based on a few web gems then on actual #’s. his hitting production has not ever been great he’s had a few yrs with a decent ave but his run production has not been good over all.
again he is a good utility guy and that’s where he should be not an everyday player. imo!
ggg…
I agree with you about Punto’s D, but he screws up easy plays when he biffs. People love his D because he makes plays that 99% of players wouldn’t even attempt.
“He’s got a jellyfish where his arm used to be.”
I’m guessing the Twins won’t sign him until they check his 2008 velocity charts.
January 1987 post: We haven’t had a winning season in 8 years and what do the cheap owners give us? Aging retread has beens like Roy Smalley, Bert Blyeleven, Niekro and Don Baylor. When are we going to get some guys that will take us to the next level of a winning record much less division champs? How can we ever win with Lombardozzi, Laudner and Gagne in our starting lineup and a .249 leadoff hitter like Gladden? Viola is a decent number 3 pitcher but we don’t even have a guy in our rotation that has had less than a 4 ERA in the last 2 years. Yeah Puckett, Hrbek and Gaetti are good but they are not champions, proven by the fact that they have neve won a division title. . We need to spend and get some proven winners here. I predict 72-90 for 1987 if we are lucky.
January 2008 post: How can you possibly lose 2 of your best players and expect to do better? Yea, we might have upgraded other positions but that can’t compensate for losing 2 of our stars. We have absolutely no power so we can expect being somewhere around 20th in runs scored or worse. Doesn’t matter anyway cuz how can you expect a retread like Livan and a bunch of unproven young guys to carry a rotation. Yea, they might have had great minor league numbers but this is the big leagues. I predict a 2 year record of 130-194. We have to get free agents in here to be able to compete. Look at Detroit. They are spending money like mad and that is why they will walk away with the division and probably the World Series.
January 2010 post: Yea, we won the World Series last year but there is no way we can do it again. We were 26th in the league in home runs, so even though we had the highest batting average and scored the 5th most runs in the league, we can’t possibly do it again if we don’t get some .250 guys with legitimate power.. Our 3rd basemen only hit 10 homers between them, so although they knocked in 90 runs again from the 7th spot, there is no way they can do it again. It almost bothers me that they won it all last year because now the Twins won’t get anyone good on the free agent market. They will just point to their past success as a lame excuse not to spend. Don’t they know that runs scored through homeruns count more than other runs. We need a guy like Ty Wiggington at 3rd base who hit .245, 25 homers and had 80 RBI. So what if we won the World Series in 2009, all the other teams are spending a lot of money to improve but us. I am tired of supporting an organization that doesnt spend money on free agent talent. Mauer, Morneau, Baker, Liriano, Casilla, etc. have proven they are champions but they need some proven power hitting free agents to be able compete again.
I like the Gagne signing if Crain does rebound and can be our 8th inning man. Gagne would be a good 6th or 7th inning with a lead type of BP guy for us. Better than Korecky and Guerrier anyway. We’ll have to see what happen with Bonser and Humber. I think they can both be effective relievers.
Just a few quick thoughts regarding the most talked about position of 09 Twins.
Third Base: There is no need to get help at here. Buscher hit .316 against lefties and Harris is solid if not outstanding against rights. If they understand their platoon role and don’t get down about not playing everyday you have a near .300 hitter and 90 RBI guy between them.
DH: Kubel is proving to be reaching the potential everyone thought he had 3 or 4 years ago. I still wouldn’t play him against left handed pitching as he only hit .232 against them. However, if you make him the everyday DH against right handers where he hit .283 with good power (for a Twin) that creates the opportunity for D Young to DH against lefties and put Cuddyer in the field those days. Cuddyer is a good clubhouse and needs some at bats but lets be honest we need Young’s bat in the line up everyday, he is 6 years younger than Cuddyer, hits for a higher average, and will eventually develop some more power. i would suggest batting him third in between Mauer (2) and Morneau (4). It is where Gardy and his man crush would like to bat Cuddyer in an effort to inflate his numbers. I say let Young bat there and see what happens.
OF: Need to start Young, Span, and Gomez. This could be the set outfield for the next 6-7 years. My only concern here is Gomez as he could have used another year in AAA but hopefully he learned on the job and can demonstrate some discipline at the plate.
SS: Punto of last year and 06 would make me happy. Punto of any other year year would be lucky to start in AA. If the Twins were going to sign a free agent this would be the place to do.
Starting Pitching: Do not trade any of the 5 projected starters. Give them another full year and you should be looking at 1 or 2 all-stars and a solid staff. If someone fades down the stretch maybe look to add via free-agency next year or from within. Never give up good young pitching to try and win today. While a World Series this year would be nice a dynasty of three or four in the next eight years would be better.
Peace.
Des,
Exellent post!
Crede is a Twins Killer if he’s not damaged goods sign him. Plus that will sting the White Sox. I really can’t stand the anything to do with CHICAGO SPORTS!!!!!
Billy Smith still sux. Yeah, all MLB teams are optimistic right now, but the Twins GM did NOTHING, the cheap Pohlads did nothing but take taxpayer money to build a stadium. If we finish 2nd next year, I will truly be amazed. 3rd or 4th is more likely based on the complete and total lack of any upgrades this offseason. A dead and blind duck could do a better job than Billy Smith.
Des:
Nice satirical piece. A writing style I for one appreciate. Danke schoen.
As for your target, I will agree in part and disagree in part. In agreement, that FA’s are rarely the panacea everyone expects. Depending on FA’s to “get over the championship hump” is futile.
ON the other hand, our fair haired hero’s have two legitimate stars in M and M, two potential SP’s stars in Baker and Liriano, and one closer All-Star in Nathan. Sadly, none of these have yet to show they can carry a team to a championship. (If I was a betting man, I would look to Mr. Baker to emerge this season as our #1 SP and big-game pitcher, but I don’t gamble). Anyhow, after that, the supporting cast leaves much to be desired. We can debate all day long about the virtues and vices of the likes of Kubel, Cuddyer, Harris, Punto, Casilla, Redmond, Young, Gomez….etc….etc….But our boys need more consistent contributions-who on the current roster can add that? Who is going to outperform last year’s achievements? The weaknesses need to be addressed, somehow, trade or otherwise, or, we hope to get lucky and have somebody unexpected emerge, AND to have elite seasons by M and M, AND to have elite season by Nathan (who needs to carry his success through September by the way), AND we need the SP staff to pitch a bit better than last year, AND most of all we need the middle bullpen to get it together. That’s lots of things that will have to fall into place to replicate, or exceed, ‘08. But, miracles do happen!
I expect Cleveland to be better, the White Sox to still be tough, and the Royals to be a pain in the side.
The Twins will likely be the same. Gee golly competitive and sound.
Jakers,
“Third Base: There is no need to get help at here. Buscher hit .316 against lefties and Harris is solid if not outstanding against rights. If they understand their platoon role and don’t get down about not playing everyday you have a near .300 hitter and 90 RBI guy between them.”
There’s just no way Buscher repeats his production from last year. And even if he comes close, he’s the worst fielding third baseman in the Majors. He’ll be getting the lion’s share of playing time. Yes, we need an upgrade. There’s a reason he was a 27-year-old career minor leaguer…
“DH: Kubel is proving to be reaching the potential everyone thought he had 3 or 4 years ago. I still wouldn’t play him against left handed pitching as he only hit .232 against them.”
His average against LHP skyrocketed in the second half. He was hitting under .200 against them in the first half. The more ABs he sees, the better he’ll get.
Besides, Morneau barely hit .200 against LHP his first full season. I don’t like the idea of platooning someone with Kubel’s power… not in this lineup anyway.
“I would suggest batting [Young] third in between Mauer (2) and Morneau (4). It is where Gardy and his man crush would like to bat Cuddyer in an effort to inflate his numbers. I say let Young bat there and see what happens.”
I completely agree. With people on base ahead of him a lot, and a perennial MVP candidate behind him, Young would see a whole lot more fastballs and build up more of a reputation as a threat. He absolutely could benefit from hitting between the M&M Boys.
“OF: Need to start Young, Span, and Gomez. This could be the set outfield for the next 6-7 years. My only concern here is Gomez as he could have used another year in AAA but hopefully he learned on the job and can demonstrate some discipline at the plate.”
Span’s faaaarrr from a guarantee, but I agree with that being the starting lineup. Cuddyer had his chance to be in the everyday lineup and let the kids play in the OF, but he and his “great leadership” don’t want to move back to third. It may not be a great fit defensively, but there’s certainly a case that it could be the best thing for the team.
If I were Cuddyer, I’d have been taking grounders at third base for 2 months now already…
“SS: Punto of last year and 06 would make me happy. Punto of any other year year would be lucky to start in AA. If the Twins were going to sign a free agent this would be the place to do.”
Sort of sad that Punto’s “career years” are when he posted an OPS of .725 and .726… isn’t it?
“Starting Pitching: Do not trade any of the 5 projected starters. Give them another full year and you should be looking at 1 or 2 all-stars and a solid staff. If someone fades down the stretch maybe look to add via free-agency next year or from within. Never give up good young pitching to try and win today. While a World Series this year would be nice a dynasty of three or four in the next eight years would be better.”
Perkins will never be part of a dynasty. He doesn’t have the stuff or the mental composure. He’s an injury risk as well. His value probably won’t ever be much higher than it is now. Trading him would be wise.
Blackburn is the same, to a lesser extent. He may be slightly better because he seems to have a bit more of a mental edge and better stuff when he’s on.
But come on, they’re both back-end starters who could be replaced by Humber, Duensing, or Swarzak without much of a loss to the team, if any at all. If we can get something for them, we should look into it.
Not worried about the 4 outfielders the Twins have. One way or another it will take care of itself. Need to step and sign Crede that would be a nice addition
“Des says:
January 21st, 2009 at 3:24 pm
January 1987 post: We haven’t had a winning season in 8 years and what do the cheap owners give us? Aging retread has beens like Roy Smalley, Bert Blyeleven, Niekro and Don Baylor.”
One problem: Baylor was a late-season acquisition.
sane -
“Crain only had three save opportunities all year and blew all of them.
“If this were the ’specialty’ of Jesse Crain, don’t you think he would have more than 10 blown saves in his career?”
He has had a grand total of 12 save opportunities in his career and he has a grand total of TWO career saves in 12 attempts.”
I just don’t think this is correct at all. Like saam pointed out, middle relievers can get a blown save at ANY point during innings 6, 7, 8, or 9 if they give up a lead. They cannot, however, get a save. They get a hold.
Take June 24th of this past year. Crain comes into a 1-0 game against the Padres in the 7th inning. He gives up 1 unearned run, and is given a blown save. The Twins then score 2 in the top of the 9th, and Nathan shuts the door in the bottom, Twins win 3-1.
Slowey - ND
Crain - BS
Reyes - W
Nathan - S
All in the same game! So, we can look at blown saves for a middle relief pitcher and see how many games they have come into and given up a lead of 3 or fewer runs. If you want to see how often they PROTECTED a lead of 3 or fewer runs, you need to look at holds. Crain had 17 holds last year.
So only 10 times in Jesse Crain’s career has he blown a lead of 3 or fewer runs that he has been given. In his career he has 46 holds and 2 saves. So Jesse Crain is actually 48 for 58 in ’save opportunities’, if you give him a save for any time that you can give him a blown save.
You’d take one of the guys with the lowest OBP on the team, and put him in front of your clean up hitter? That’s an interesting strategy.
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. The SP should be deep, with three guys that could be very good, and two guys that most teams would be ok/happy having at 4 or 5. The OF should be good defensively if they finally move DY to right. They still have M&M and Nathan.
There are reasons to be concerned too. They have few players that can drive the ball. Last year is the only year in the last 9 that they’ve been above average in runs scored, and they did that with historic batting with RISP (assuming you agree finishing 5th-10th is about average). They have Punto playing, who while not as bad as many portray him, is hard to have on a team where the rest of the O isn’t that good. They have a platoon at 3B made up of a good hitter who might be a decent 3B fielder, and a career minor leaguer who can’t field. Their bullpen is mostly filled with unkowns. Their 2B was terrible in the minors before coming up, which guy is the real guy. Their CF can’t get on base (but man can he field). Their LF isn’t that good, when compared to other LFers. I’m not sure where his OPS is from June 7 on compared to other LFers from June 7 on.
You have to like the starting pitching (though I’d be ok if they took a flyer on trading one of their current guys for a SS/3B/2B/OF that could hit for a high OPS, and taking a chance on the number 5 pitcher coming from the minors).
At this point, I’d like Uggla or Dunn on this roster. That said, I expect them to stand pat position player wise and sign one guy for the BP. At that point, you are hoping Young and Gomez improve, Span stays about the same, and Casilla stays about the same and that Cuddy somehow contributes in a meaningful way. In a division where cleveland is much healthier than last year, the White Sox somehow manage to compete, and KC is filled with young guys (who most here insist get better as they play), I’m not confident at this point. Hopeful, but not confident.
I am going to have to disagree with Howard on a couple things. He has Perkins ahead of Blackburn in the rotation, when it was Blackburn who only had a few bad starts all year (led the team in quality starts from what I remember) and Perkins was the starter that melted down at the end (along with Liriano, which no one seems to mention). The way I see it, Perkins needs to earn his 5th spot, especially since Humber is out of options as well as some other youngsters have some talent as well.
He also is doing a lot of ‘hoping’ and bringing up Brian Roberts whose an interesting name but not a need. Some players need to prove they are back/ready to take on the roles that will essentially be handed to them (ie Cuddy the RF job, Punto the SS job).
I am also very disappointed in the offseason. There are deals out there to be had and it appears there is no movement at all from the FO. I hope they realize that Wiggy can be had for a lot less than he’s asking, and that guys like Gagne and Crede can be had for low-risk high-reward type deals (even if it is Boras - he’s stubborn but not a moron).
Bill Smith WILL NOT even hint toward anything he is planning. Something happening in the next couple of days WILL create a “buzz” for Twinsfest & will sell more tickets & merchandise……so don’t be surprised if something such as a Mauer extension happens. There will also be a lot of FA that will settle for pennies on the dollar when spring training starts…..so the Twins may still sign a player or two. Thank goodness, Spring Training is just around the corner. I’m sick of the 4+ feet of snow in my yard. Players can’t report too soon for me! 
Pete D,
“If this were the ’specialty’ of Jesse Crain, don’t you think he would have more than 10 blown saves in his career?”
That was YOUR statement!
“In order to blow a save, you have to be put into a rule-mandated save situation.
Crain (and most everyone in the Twins bullpen not named Joe Nathan) was seldom put in that position.”
That was my statement explaining why quoting number of saves and blown saves have little relevance to a MR or setup man’s effectiveness.
IMO Crain was effective prior to his arm problems and OK since, considering his recent surgery.
My objection was to your referencing his (supposedly) low number of blown saves to validate his effectiveness.
Crain’s saves and blown saves have little relevance to his effectiveness.
ERA, K/BB, OppBA are more relevant for MR’s and setup men.
That was my original argument and appears to be your current argument.
Of course saves and blown saves
Please disregard “Of course saves and blown saves”.
That should have been deleted.
coco,
“I’m sick of the 4+ feet of snow in my yard. Players can’t report too soon for me!”
Unless the players are reporting to your yard with snow shovels, I don’t think that will help your situation.
Mike was wondering about DY’s 2nd half, .297/.345/.432 which I would say isn’t bad for a 22 yr old. Most 22 yr olds are in AA ball dreaming about the big leagues. I have noticed that Mike doesn’t seem to think young players need to grow into stars very few are stars at 22.
nincompoop, don’t care how he compares to 22 year olds, only to other LFers. Howard’s point was that he was good after June 7, I just wanted to know how it compared to other LFers after June 7. He plays LF, not 22 year old.
Mike
how many other 22 yo LF’s are out there? You can’t simply focus on one aspect without taking into account all the factors. And what many forget is LF is not even his natural position. I have a feeling he would have been much better if he was able to play at his natural position of RF instead of Span playing there, who should have been in LF all along (yet another moronic Gardy move…)
oh and nincompoop
thats not bad by any standard, not just a 22 yo. how many players in this league bat below .297?
sane -
Here’s the original statement.
“His speciality is coming in when the Twins have just rallied to tie a game or take the lead and giving that lead right back to the other team.”
To which I responded with the blown saves argument. Which is the correct way to respond to that statement.
Are there better ways to judge the performance of a relief pitcher? Absolutely. Saves are a terrible way to measure performance. But if what we want to measure is the number of times a pitcher came into a game with a lead, and then left the game without it, that, by definition, is blown saves, isn’t it?
For example, I think Hideki Okajima is a better relief pitcher than Jesse Crain. Lower ERA, lower WHIP, higher K/9, higher K/BB, etc. But last year, Okajima had 23 holds, 1 save, and 8 blown saves. So, in the 32 games that he entered when his team had a lead of 3 or fewer runs, he let up that lead 25% of the time. Jesse Crain had 17 holds and 3 blown saves. So he only blew 15% of his games. Which one seems like they have the specialty stated above?
“I just wanted to know how it compared to other LFers after June 7. ”
His OPS was 19th among left fielders in MLB with at least 200 PA after June 7th. And for reference, his BA was 7th, his OBP 17th, and his SLG 17th.
Maybe the question should be who should have been playing LF that would have had better numbers? How did Gomez compare to other center fielders?
Nice post Howard. I’m definitely on board with just about everything you said. I’m actually glad to know somebody else is seeing the glass as half full instead of half empty.
Has much as I would have liked to see an upgrade at third, I still think this team can make a serious run at the division. While others are predicting doom and gloom because of the lack of activity this winter, what about all dead weight that was cut last year?
So much of the first half of last season was spent just trying to figure out what worked and what didn’t. Things never really started to click until after the all-star break.
This year we start the season without Livan, Lamb, Rincon, Bass and several other unsuccessful experiments. How many games did each of those players cost the team before Gardy and the front office decided to try something else? This year they have the chance to hit the ground running.
While getting a stud third baseman would have certainly improved the team, look at how much this spring’s team is over last spring’s team just by simply cutting the loses.
Howard mentioned the starting pitching as something that made him happy. In my mind that is huge. In the past, prognosticators always harped on starting pitching. A lot of people rag on Perkins and Blackburn, but at one point late last August, all five had ERA’s under 4.00. All five also had career highs in innings pitched and I’m thinking that there were a lot of tired arms bloating their ERA’s come September. It is so nice starting a season knowing who the 4th and 5th starters will be.
As much as I would love to see them add a big bat, I wouldn’t be adverse to them standing pat on offense, then possibly making another run at Beltre after the all-star break. This team is so much better than so many people are giving them credit for.
Christymathewson, your statement about the Jesse Crain of 2005 coming back is what worries me. Simply put, he sucks. if you want to be the Jesse Crain apologist on this blog, that’s your business, but he is not someone who can be relied on in any clutch situation. that was the gist of my post, not whether he can throw the ball harder than other pitchers who have had surgery.
So even taking his 4 best months, he was still worse than the median player at his position. Ouch. I was hopeful it was better than that, frankly.
I’ve decided the “he’s only 22″ are my KLAW baiting posts…..and I’ll do my best to be like Keith.
Gomez was pretty bad as a hitter, but his defense was outstanding. If you look at this advanced stats, that take into account both O and D, he faired pretty decently, if I recall correctly.
I vote that ‘nincompop’ start posting under another name, b/c I just can’t read the thread here if I have to see the word ‘nincompoop’ every other word. Just can’t do it.
Pete D,
“But if what we want to measure is the number of times a pitcher came into a game with a lead, and then left the game without it, that, by definition, is blown saves, isn’t it?”
I see how kitty kaat’s original statement elicited your response.
Blown saves is probably the best “conventional” stat to refute the original statement, although it only covers the 12 save opportunities out of 249 appearances Crain has made in his career.
There probably is a “designer” stat which actually calculates “the number of times a pitcher came into a game with a lead, and then left the game without it”, but that requires more research than most of us (especially me) would be willing devote to refuting an unsubstantiated statement like the original one.
As far as Young playing LF was concerned, he started in LF is because Cuddyer is the starting RF.
They wanted Young to stay where he was an learn his position instead of moving him into RF where he’d have to learn the baggie.
Now that Cuddyer may potentially be on his way out (depending on how things are going by June), it may not be a bad idea to rotate he and Young in RF, while putting Span in LF.
Of course, if Gomez starts the season on the bench (or in AAA), then it will be Young/Span/Cuddyer (as it should be).
at least mike’s obsession with everything wrong with dy is the one constant on these blogs.
he still hasn’t come up with who should have been playing left, ford, tyner? would they have had better numbers? maybe we should sign manny?
how were cuddy’s #’s compared to other rf’s?
ggg,
Lew Ford, Jason Tyner, RonDL White, Darnell McDonald and Josh Rabe in LF.
Ahhhhhhhhh….2007 was a wonderful year.
sane -
“although it only covers the 12 save opportunities out of 249 appearances Crain has made in his career.”
And that’s where I’m trying to tell you - it doesn’t. It covers every time that Jesse Crain came into a game with a lead of 3 or fewer runs and let the other team either tie or take the lead. In those situations, Crain can get one of three outcomes - a save if he finishes the game, a hold if he does not, or a blown save if he surrenders the lead. It’s one of the oddities about baseball stats - you can get a blown save in the 7th inning, but you can’t get a save unless you finish the game.
So, to figure out how many opportunities like that there were, all we have to do is add up blown saves, saves, and holds. Crain has 58 in his career. Of those 58 opportunities, he has a hold in 46 of them, a save in 2, and a blown save in 10. 82.8% of the times he comes in with a lead, he doesn’t give it up. While that’s not great at all - I think the league average for closers is somewhere around 87 or 88% - I sure wouldn’t blowing games a specialty of his.
Seems pretty simple to me. Move Span to left. When we face lefties have Young DH and Cuddyer in right. When we face righties have Kubel DH and Young play in right. Pinch hitting and giving guys days off will give Cuddyer at bats against righties. Young will get his at bats since he is the better hitter and half the time we will have the best defensive outfield in the league. Cudyer still gets plenty of play
Oh yes, and PLEASE give Tolbert near equal footing in competing for the shortstop job. If Punto is the better man, fine, but don’t play him just cuz of the contract.
Pete
I’m not a fan of “game stats” (holds, wins, saves, blown saves) for pitchers. In the case we are discussing, a Crain can come in and allow every batter he faces to reach and still get a hold as long as he doesn’t surrender the lead. Or he can get a blown save if he comes in with a one run lead and the bases loaded with nobody out and allows the tying run to score on a DP grounder. Those stats just don’t reflect how well a MR actually performs.
I agree with your general point that Crain doesn’t “suck” I just don’t like the way you are trying to prove it.
I really don’t care about the saves stat. Crain clearly struggled last year with consistency. And he struggled even more in 2007 until his surgery.
I always puzzled about why a guy with a mid-90s fastball and a sharp curve would struggle. But the reality was, his fastball lost velocity consistently from touching 98 in 2006 to sitting in the low 90s in 2007. The best evidence of this (besides my own radar logs) is his K rate, which went from 18% to 14% (per PA). Then he had surgery to repair his shoulder and elbow, and the doctors claimed he had been dealing with the injury for at least a year prior to the surgery. That explained the loss in velocity.
Last year we saw flashes of the old Crain, and more sustained periods of something close to his 2007 performance. Though his high K rate returned, his GB% went down. Most importantly, his FIP went down considerably. So even in his 2008 numbers, there is reason for optimism: Higher K rates, lower FIP.
And considering that it usually takes guys two years to recover from that surgery, there’s good reason to believe he’ll be even better in 2009. He might not ever return to 2006 form, but he can come close. And in his case, close is good enough to take the lion’s share of eighth inning opportunities.
is joe still working for the trib or did he get caught up in the cuts? i know they had a baby but it’s been a month since he posted anything.
The Twins must get an everyday 3B and the Kouzmanoff from San Diego is an ideal fit. The Twins surely can not use 4 every day outfielders and the Padres are in need of OF help. So, let’s package Young and Perkins and get a deal done that brings Kouzmanoff and Heath Bell to Minnesota.
Actually, I suggested that I’d have preferred Matt Kemp as the trade target, when the trade was made. I’d have also tried to get LaRoche in the deal (who I’ve admitted looked pretty bad last year, even compared to Harris or Bartlett). So, I did and continue to make that statement. If you are trading Garza, I’d have rather have gone after Kemp.
I liked the DY trade, but I’ll add to Mike’s point that they could have also gotten infield help in exchange for Garza (or kept Bartlett who is cheaper than Punto) and used Span in left. After all, no one knew that Cuddyer would miss so much time in 08.
mike,
Did the Dodgers want or need to trade Kemp for Garza, while they had Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsly, Greg Maddux, Hiroki Keroda, Clayton Kershaw and Brad Penny in their rotation?
speaking of the dodgers… Jeff Kent, HOF’er or no? I never really considered him to be a shoe-in for the Hall, and I still don’t think he is, but if you go back and look at his stats, its hard to argue with the numbers.
Kuroda and Billingsley when spelled correctly.
i would have rathered they traded santana for wright, reyes and pelfrey!
Kouzmanoff from San Diego is an ideal fit.
First, nobody is an ideal fit. But even if you’re willing to accept less than ideal, Kouzmanoff is far from desirable. His defense is horrible, and he struck out 139 times against just 23 walks last year. That would be OK, I guess, if he actually hit a lot of home runs. But 23 homers in 624 at bats is not a lot of homers, even in Petco.
gobble, joe’s still here (albeit happily sleep deprived owing to the baby).
sane, I have no idea. Someone asked me what I would have done. That’s what I would have tried to do. If that option would not have worked, I probably would have pursued another avenue.
Jeff Kent, HOF’er or no?
If Ryne Sandberg (.285/.344/.452 282 HR 1061 RBI) is in Kent (.290/.356/.500 377 HR 1518 RBI) has to be in.
thanks howard, i was worried people are getting the ax everywhere.
I think Kent’s offensive numbers from his best years are a bit inflated batting behind Bonds. His numbers are really, really good for a 2b, but Kent was basically a 3b with no range playing 2b, and his numbers don’t stand up as well with other 3b’s. Santo isn’t in, for one, and he didn’t play in the steroid era. That said, I think he gets in at some point. Bonds or not, between ‘97 and ‘05 Jeff Kent was an offensive machine.
mike,
“I have no idea. Someone asked me what I would have done. That’s what I would have tried to do. If that option would not have worked, I probably would have pursued another avenue.”
I understand.
Someone may have said this.. I’m too lazy to look right now… but if there is an 8th man in the bullpen, it would probably not be R.A. Dickey, but rather Philip Humber.
I feel we have plenty of reason for optimism this next season.
Two problems: Humber is on the 40-man roster and he’s out of options. So if it’s between Humber and anyone who has options or is not on the 40-man (E.g. Dickey) it will be Humber.
if there is an 8th man in the bullpen
that would be 13 pitchers and 12 position players and would result in a 3 man bench: Redmond, the one of Buscher/Harris not starting and the one of Cuddyer/Young not starting. Not that smart. Even 12 pitchers is a bit too much, but 13 is just crazy.
Likely bullpen (seven):
Nathan
Crain
Mijares
Guerrier
Breslow
Springer or Humber
Bonser
cmath,
I think that the ideal bullpen should be six. Here is my reasoning:
Assume 1460 innings pitched by the whole Twins’ staff (the amount the Twins pitchers pitched in 2008)
If every starter pitches 6.3 innings, 4 will pitch 33 games and the fifth 30. Starters will take care of 1021 innings this way.
The pen would be responsible for 439 innings. Nathan averaged 70 innings in each of his years with the Twins. So the remaining 5 pitchers will be responsible for 369 innings. If the long man gets 90 innings (a reasonable average for mop up pitching) the remaining 4 would be responsible for 279 innings or 69.7 innings per pitcher which is very doable.
What would this require?
a. other than the mop up man, 4 good relievers that can get opposing hitters out no matter whether they are lefties or righties.
and
b. Gardy to quit bringing up pitchers just for one batter. This wastes pitchers.
How doable is it?
Let’s assume than Nathan is the closer and Humber the long man.
Opponents OPS:
(the MLB average for relievers is .726)
Bonser RHB: .715 (fine) LHB .866 (not good)
Breslow RHB: .563 (great) LHB .462 (great)
Crain RHB .755 (so so) LHB .719 (fine)
Mijares (small sample warning) RHB .150 (super), LHB .286 (super)
Guerrier RHB .802 (not good) LHB .801 (not good)
Remember, only 4 of these 5 will be in. If Guerrier is out and another good reliever comes in (or if Guerrier resurrects himself) relegating Bonser to the long man position and Humber out, it is very doable.
just for fun,
Springer’s numbers: RHB .456 (super) LHB .848 (ouch).
The flexibility that an extra position player will provide, esp. with the infield questions is probably better than the luxury of using pitchers just for one batter.
[…] · Howard Sinker posted his optimistic thoughts looking toward Spring Training 2009. […]
Why don’t we sign Hudson and Crede?
I expect them to sign Crede. The reason they won’t sign Hudson is draft compensation. They are unwilling to give up a first round draft choice to upgrade their infield.
I see Carl is still pulling the strings from the grave in the Gagne deal. Gagne’s agent calls Smith’s bluff and agrees to the Twins offer and Smith pulls it off the table. What a clown… The front office is a joke.
The stunning thing about this free-agent market isn’t that there are still about 100 players without jobs, it’s that at least a dozen of the unemployed are excellent players in their prime.
It isn’t just patient all-time great Manny Ramirez who’s available, but enough All-Stars and stars to form their own very good team.
A dynamic lineup could be constructed with outfielders Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn and Garret Anderson, second baseman Orlando Hudson, shortstop Orlando Cabrera, third baseman Joe Crede and catcher Jason Varitek joining Ramirez. A very solid rotation would be formed with Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, Randy Wolf, Jon Garland (EDITOR’S NOTE: Garland agreed to a deal with Arizona after press time) and Braden Looper. And Juan Cruz, one of the best set-up men in baseball, remains available, as well. If you play Dunn at first, all that’s missing are a center fielder and a closer.
Beyond all the current stars, there are several Hall-of-Famers-to-be with their hands out. Some think Jeff Kent’s retirement was hastened by this awful market. Kenny Rogers looks likely to call it quits, and others might, too.
There doesn’t seem to be a lot of action on all-time great Ken Griffey Jr., or for that matter, sure Hall of Famer Frank Thomas. Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Moises Alou, Ivan Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra are among other former greats still available. It’s like a Who’s Who of 1990s baseball out there.
But it’s not only aging players who are wondering where their next paycheck is coming from. Plenty of players in their prime and even a few coming off 40-homer, 100-RBI or 14-win seasons are still seeking employment.
Breaking News for the Uninformed: The Twins, like most clubs aren’t giving up 1st round draft picks for aging, oft-injured Type A free agents like Hudson. Same for the other Type A free agents such as Cabrera, Cruz etc. It’s not the dough, but the loss of a high draft pick. On the otherhand, it IS surprising that a team like the Yankees have not signed Juan Cruz since it would only cost them a fourth round draft pick (they’ve already signed free agents and lost draft picks in three rounds).
Looking at Joe C’s blog, I guess we’re in the middle of the Crede gambit.
Hope it works.
