An “OUCH” for Matt Guerrier
Posted on March 17th, 2009 – 1:41 PMBy Howard
I know the wind is blowing out and this is the time of spring training when pitchers often have the dead arm, but I’m not sure this is a pitching line that Matt Guerrier could afford this afternoon:
IP - 1, H - 4, ER - 4, W- 0, K - 1, HR - 2. Spring ERA: 8.22.
The home runs, two-run shots by Jacoby Ellsbury and Jason Bay, were not cheap.
At the same time, it was nice to see Denard Span take Papelbon deep.
66 Responses to "An “OUCH” for Matt Guerrier"
Guerrier’s job is probably safe given the state of the bullpen. If Boof was healthy and pitching well, Humber was getting the ball down and Mijares wasn’t a complete basket case, then perhaps Guerrier becomes the odd man out.
However, the reality is that the Twins are hardly in a position where they can cut Guerrier and hope someone else can fill those innings, no matter how much they might wish for that to be the case.
Dwade is right. Unfortunately, the Twins don’t have much of a choice, other than to change Guerrier’s role in the bullpen. I think he becomes the innings-eater who comes in when they are down six in the third inning.
Can Guerrier afford a day like that in spring training? Let’s see… at $1.5 million, I think he can afford it.
I think he becomes the innings-eater who comes in when they are down six in the third inning.
They have no shortage of candidates for that role.
Unfortunately, what they are short of is candidates to pitch the 7th and 8th with a one run lead.
Not that that’s news. Failing to address the bullpen is an issue that could prove extremely costly to the Twins this season.
Is Guerrier this years Rincon???
Will he be looking for a job around the all-star break?
Still 3 weeks to go, but what worries me about Guerrier are not the home runs per se. It is that he has a hard time finding the plate and when he finds it he finds it with fat pitches down the middle, as he did in his miserable second half last season…
To me, it’s not so much whether his place on the roster is safe. It’s the role question. Is Guerrier devolving into the last man on the staff?
Is Guerrier devolving into the last man on the staff?
Probably not, but close. The way it looks so far:
Nathan 9th
Crain 8th
Breslow/Ayala 7th
Guerrier 6th and maybe 7th if Crain unavailable for 8th and Breslow/Ayala have to go
sixth man (Humber? Jones? Dickey? 2 out of them?) long and mop up
The Twins cannot afford to have Guerrier stink like last year, regardless of his role. The problem is, they have allowed no room for an injury to happen, or for one of their bullpen guys to be subpar, because of their failure to go out and get a legitimate arm for the back end of the game.
The Cruz decision is puzzling. Counting on Crain and Ayala for the 8th and 7th is leaving, way, way, way too much up to chance for a team that should be more concerned about winning and winning now.
So if Mijares is too fat and boneheaded to make the team, who do the Twins call up when they need another lefty? Duensing?
I don’t think Guerrier ever got it back after last year’s disaster. People forget how bad he was. The only outs he got after the All Star break were hard hit balls hit right at people. He looks the same this spring. Another Juan Rincon, except Juannie went down hill slowely. Matty fell off a cliff and he can’t get back up.
But I disagree that it’s a great loss, as long as the Twins cut bait on him early. The Twins have five guys who are better than him who are not penciled into the opening day roster.
Hey, look on the bright side. Mijares’ ERA went down. He only gave up 1 run in 1 inning.
Trade Harris for BP help.
The Twins have five guys who are better than him who are not penciled into the opening day roster.
Really?
Even if that’s true, which is questionable at best, the better question is do the Twins have five guys better than Juan Cruz?
do the Twins have five guys better than Juan Cruz?
Given that Cruz is an 8th inning guy, all the Twins need is 2 guys better than him. Nathan is better than him. I really liked what I have seen of Crain this spring: 6 IP 0 R 6 K 0 BB (between the Twins and team Canada and not only facing replacement players). His fastball has movement now and his curve is really tight and crisp with late breaking action. I think that he can be better than Cruz, who, btw, is been known to have stretches of playing hide and seek with the plate
I think to answer Howard’s question, you’d need to know what his plan was going in to the game.
If he and his coaches thought he had all of his pitches working and he was going in to replicate a regular season game situation (that is, the idea is to get outs any way possible), then clearly he failed and he’s on thin ice.
However, this time of the spring, pitchers do occasionally go in to the game with instructions to work on a particular pitch/location until they get it right. If that was his instruction from coaches, then it becomes pretty clear early in his inning and it’s not surprising to see guys like Ellsbury and Bay take advantage of pretty much knowing what pitch was coming.
Still 3 weeks away from opening day, gang. No need to panic (tho I realize doing so is half the fun for some folks).
Baker and Guerrier were really bad today and Mijares was less than stellar even though he struck out two. Our bullpen is starting to worry me a bit. Hopefully Nathan, Crain, Breslow and Ayala will be solid.
How is Ayala doing for Mexico so far? I’m kinda hoping they get eliminated soon so he can get back with the team and get evaluated (one way or another)
Damn… that 3:39 “birdofprey” comment was mine. I didn’t realize the nickname gremlins were back and I didn’t check before I hit “submig”.
Sorry, bop.
I didn’t check before I hit “submiT” either.
do the Twins have five guys better than Juan Cruz?
No. The Twins have one guy on par with Juan Cruz–Jesse Crain. I was in favor of signing Juan Cruz, in part because I thought Guerrier had reached the end of his rope and Mijares had taken a step back in the offseason. I thought it was worth a first rounder plus the money. But the Twins don’t like to give up first rounders, and apparently, they balked at the money as well in any kind of sign-and-trade deal.
What’s done is done. The five guys who are better than Guerrier are: Philip Humber, Rob Delaney, Anthony Swarzak, Anthony Slama, and Kevin Mulvey. I would add Justin Jones to this list, but I don’t think he’ll be with the organization on opening day. Humber likely will make the team, and could swap roles with Guerrier as early as May, minimizing the impact of Guerrier’s futility. When even that becomes unbearable, Swarzak or Mulvey (or Duensing) could take his place as the long man. Or, they could move Humber back into the long role and call up Delaney or Slama. In any event, the Twins have depth enough to absorb the ineffectiveness of Matt Guerrier.
They never had depth enough to absorb the loss of Pat Neshek, which is why it made sense to acquire it in the form of Juan Cruz. Oh well.
Didn’t Mexico get eliminated last night, T? They were trailing when I went to bed and I thought it was an elimination game. I wouldn’t swear by it though.
However, this time of the spring, pitchers do occasionally go in to the game with instructions to work on a particular pitch
Looks like Baker (the last couple of outings) and Guerrier have been doing exactly that: working on their gopherball.
Starting day is about 2 weeks and 6 days away and at some point these guys need to make adjustments. As a matter of fact, Baker threw 4 different types of pitches today (4-seamer, change, slider, 2-seamer) and Guerrier 3 (2-seamer, slider, change.) So, I really doubt that they were working on a single pitch.
i was for giving up the pick for cruz because the pick is at best a 50-50 chance to be a productive major league player and imo we could and can really use cruz.
with boof gone, both matty g and mijares scuffling things are thin at best. of course if that pick turns out to be a star in 5-6 years i’ll be to old to rememebr what i just said.
Didn’t Mexico get eliminated last night, T?
I saw they were trailing…didn’t realize it was an elimination game though. Didn’t catch the end.
How is Ayala doing for Mexico so far?
he was horrid in 2 games and pitched a shutout inning in last night’s elimination game. He will probably be in camp tomorrow.
I wouldn’t assume Jones isn’t going to be with the organization on Opening Day. Yes, he was a Rule V and they have to offer him back to the Yankees if they don’t keep him on the MLB roster. But it’s not at all unusual for teams to make some kind of deal involving low prospect in return for letting a team keep a guy they drafted in the Rule V. If the Yankees really wanted him, they wouldn’t have left him exposed.
Given that Cruz is an 8th inning guy, all the Twins need is 2 guys better than him.
I don’t agree with this line of reasoning.
First of all, there are more innings to protect than just the 8th and 9th. Having good pitchers to pitch the 6th and 7th is only slightly less important than pitching the 8th and 9th.
Second, while I agree that I like Crain, he cannot pitch every day. Three close games in a row probably makes him unavailable for the third game. Plus, let’s remember Crain wasn’t exactly lights out last year, even factoring in his return from injury.
Third, there is no guarantee the Twins bullpen won’t sustain injuries this year. In fact, it’s a virtual guarantee that injuries will occur somewhere, sometime during the season. Having more than one option in the bullpen to fill various roles is a good idea.
Bottom line: depending on 2 relievers to pitch 2 innings, every time there’s a close game over 6 months, is a recipe for disappointment.
Money and draft picks is what matters to Bill Smith. Winning a championship is not a high priority.
I’m just saying… if this were a normal ST, we’d only be a little over a week in to the games. I’m not going to sweat too much about things until we get a week to 10 days out from Opening Day. If guys still can’t get outs that last 10 days, there will be plenty of time to wring our hands and rend garments.
It was nice to see some offense today against Beckett and Papelbon. I’ll take that as a positive from the game.
Bottom line: depending on 2 relievers to pitch 2 innings, every time there’s a close game over 6 months, is a recipe for disappointment
Agreed. That’s where Breslow and maybe Ayala come to play. Breslow was the Twins’ best reliever last season, other than Nathan. The other huge part of this is that this season, hopefully the starters can go longer into the game (Andy’s got to eat his clicker) and the lineup will be able to afford the team bigger leads. Arguably, with Crede, a better Gomez, a better Young, a better Casilla, a better Cuddyer, there might be more nights than last season when the Twins have a 4-5 run lead in the 7th. Then you can have Ayala, Guerrier and the rest pitch and take them out at the first sign of trouble.
Is there some guarantee that Cruz is going to be great or even good this year?
Is there some guarantee that Cruz is going to be great or even good this year?
No.
Is there some guarantee Joe Nathan is going to be great or even good this year?
Cruz was someone people here wanted and the Twins didn’t go get. Around here, that’s as much of a sure thing as you can get.
So we are sure that Guerrier is going to have a horrible year and we are sure that Cruz is going to be better simply because some people here wanted him………… Ok I just needed to make sure that is what I was reading.
Speaking of Ouch, the Royals just signed Ponson.
I think you’ve pretty much grasped the concept, Charlie.
Well, I’m sure Guerrier is going to have a horrible year. But I’m alone in that opinion. Why am I not complaining about Baker? Because he was good last year, particularly down the stretch. What I see now is just what Jack said on the radio: His stuff is slow because it’s early. Guerrier, on the other hand, stunk last year–he had nothing. If he came to camp popping the baseball, I’d declare his last-season struggles to be dead arm and be done with it. But he’s still got nothing. Let’s face it, he never had much in the first place. He had a nice little run of fooling major league hitter with below-average stuff. That’ll do. Next!
Ponson will win 3 games against the Twins this year. He will win 4 games total.
Bad news for the Twins, they will be dominated this year by Sir Sidney.
I’ve been saying for a while that I think Guerrier is done ala Rincon. i think that we’ll be subjected to watching him stink for the first 6 weks or so the the regular season. Unless he continues to be terrible and Mijares picks it up I don’t see him getting released.
Guerrier just plain sucks! His 2007 season was an aberration where he pitched way over his head, a career year that will never in all likelihood be repeated; every other year has been the real Guerrier. But that won’t stop Gardy from trotting him out there game after game in close and late situations, and then express shock and bewilderment as the losses pile up, just as he did last season.
Why can’t the BP be
Nathan
Crain
Breslow
Ayala
Mijares
Humber
let Mijares lose weight by sweating through about 60 mlb appearances. Anderson will whip him into shape.
Plus then Tolbert, Buscher, and Harris can all stay with the team.
Cruz is the best set up man in MLB. We could’ve had him for a song (1st rounder, and 3 mil a year for 3 years).
His strikeout ratio is better than nathan’s (I think it was 2nd best in baseball amongst relievers). The whole reason the twins passed (not too shockingly) on Bradford last August, was because he did not strike guys out (despite his #1 ranking in groundballs). Well Cruz does.
With a pitcher of that stature, it would position our bullpen to be one of strength over the next 3 years (with Neshek coming back, and hopefully Crain improving) rather than one of questions, which it clearly is right now.
To suggest that Cruz was not what this team needed, but rather a fan based swelling or want, is silly.
rghrbek, I agree losing Cruz or a good RP is really going to hurt the twins.
I suspect the Twins will go with an 11-man staff. But I also suspect they’ll go with three catchers. Between keeping 12 pitchers, three catchers and seven infielders, seven infielders would be their third priority. Besides, Tolbert is having a horrible spring.
Was Guerrier’s 2007 like Tony Fiore’s 2002? A guy with below average “stuff” who puts up good numbers for a year and then makes you pull your hair out every outing after that…???
Besides, Tolbert is having a horrible spring.
Between that and Buscher defensive shortcomings and recently cooling off with the bat, I was really surprised that they cut Tolleson (who is in the 40-man roster) so early before he had a chance to show them what he can do (he missed about 10 days with injuries.) Hughes or Machado might be other options. but the Tolleson optioning really surprised me.
If only we had signed Gagne…NOT. If only we had kept Guardado…NOT.
It seems like its time for the Twins to do what they do best: throw a few young arms in the lake and see who swims. It can’t be any worse than what Gurrier and Crain were doing last season. I would love to see Humber step up.
Cruz is the best setup man is baseball? PLEASE! Everyone mentions how “godly” his K rates are but no one mentions that he piles up the walks too. Giving up a first rounder for him would have been a terrible move.
I would have no problem with Guerrier being left off the roster come opening day. Go with the likes of Humber, Duensing, Dickey, etc. and pray that Crain and Ayala (I guess) can work the set-up role.
Like somebody said on the board….I’m willing to bet it will be 2 months into the season and several awful Guerrier appearances before somebody wakes up.
Sorry, nothing malicious. Just think is arm, and seemingly his confidence is shot.
[…] A Fan’s View – […]
Please every one. Just give peace a chance.
Guerrier - looks a lot like a “has been.” But hope not.
Skip, you’re onto something. Cruz not only walks a lot of batters (always has) he has a low GB% (30% give or take), so he tends to give up more homers than the top set-up guys. That’s why his FIP is typically higher than his ERA even with all the Ks. Last year his FIP (3.59) was more than a point higher than his ERA (2.61).
Cruz could help this team, but he’s not one of the top set-up men in the game. He was only the top set-up man on the free agent market, which featured slim pickings this year.
Some say Bill Smith only cares about draft choices and money, not winning. I say he cares about both: It’s not an either/or proposiotion; the two are related. You can’t win in the future by spending too much in the present. By not signing Cruz, he hindered his team’s chances this year. But in future years, he’ll improve his chances to win. It’s debatable that Cruz was worth the steep price. It’s not debatable that Bill Smith wants to win.
cmath,
here is the trick: The pen was fine last year (and I got the numbers to back that up and would be more than happy to share, if anyone asks.) The rotation and the bats were more of a problem. I suspect that the bats might be slightly better this season (this depends on when Mauer comes back and whether Gardy will decide to bring someone like Butera up north and/or whether he decides to bring E6 north and play him on the field.) I think that 2/5ths of the rotation will be better (Slowey and Liriano), Baker might be better, Blackburn will be the same and Perkins is scary.
Do I think that the Twins have questions? Yes. But the other AL Central teams have more. Cleveland (the favorite by many to win the division) has 2 decent starters and a bunch of questions. Detroit took a step back from last season (if that is possible), the Sox took about 5 steps back and the Royals might have the best pen in the division, and a bunch of guys who cannot get on base.
I would not give up on 2009 that soon.
make that E5
By not signing Cruz, he hindered his team’s chances this year. But in future years, he’ll improve his chances to win.
A minor quibble…he MIGHT have improved his chances to win in future years. There’s no guarantee that draft pick will ever get out of A ball, much less help the Twins win at some point in the future.
And Thrylos, no matter what your numbers might say, nobody who watched the Twins all year last year could possibly believe the bullpen ‘was fine last year.’ Particularly in the second half. I do agree the starting pitching wasn’t quite the strength many seem to think, but it wasn’t bad.
And for that matter, I believe the offense scored the 4th most runs in baseball, so I don’t understand the position the bats were more of a problem.
Chief,
here are the numbers, month by month:
(and this will not format correctly)
month record starters ERA relievers ERA OPS
april 14-14 4.74 3.54 .666
may 15-13 4.43 3.94 .740
june 17-11 4.70 3.24 .770
july 15-10 4.28 5.21 .802
august 17-12 3.09 4.13 .771
sept 11-15 4.92 3.68 .739
major league average: .749 OPS, 4.44 Starter ERA and 4.10 reliever ERA
Other than July the pen was above or close to MLB average, the rotation was at or above MLB average only 2 months and the bats were above MLB average half of the season.
here is the thing if you care:
http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2008/10/season-in-review-month-by-month.html
@Thrylos, I disagree on the pen. Part of it is where you set your threshold for “fine.” Last year, the bullpen cost this team 20 wins, blowing 26 saves–the most in the division. I set my threshold for “fine” a little higher than that. We are accustomed to fewer than 20 BSes and fewer than 15 loasses going to the pen. The bullpen needs to be better this year than last. I have some hope that will happen if Mijares can get it together and Gardy doesn’t just run Guerrier out there no matter what. But it will only be marginally better.
@Chief: I wasn’t only speaking about the draft pick. The Twins are batting about .333 on compensation picks since 2004–Good: Perkins, Slowey, Hunt, Gutierrez; Bad: Waldrop, Fox, Rainville, Kelly, Robbins; Ugly: Sanchez. So you’re right, it’s not so much about the draft pick. But $3M a year for three years is a lot to give up for an aging set-up guy, particularly when you have Neshek coming back for two of those years and guys like Delaney and Slama coming along for two plus. The Twins offered a one-year deal for more money per than he took from KC. He wanted more years for less money. C’est La Vie.
Last year, the bullpen cost this team 20 wins, blowing 26 saves–the most in the division.
here is the break down in those blown saves:
Nathan 6 (nobody is worried about him; should we?)
Guerrier 4 (well…)
Reyes 3 (bye bye)
Rincon 3 (bye bye)
Crain 3 (he is better this year)
Bonser 2 (out)
Neshek 2 (out)
Guardado 1 (bye bye)
Breslow 1
Bass 1 (bye bye)
And a lot of the pen last year was Gardy (who insisted on playing Juanie after Juanie messed up in similar situations, then, after Juanie was gone, he insisted on playing Bassie after Bassie messed up in similar situations, and after they both were gone, he played Mattie day after day no matter what) and Andy (who held that clicker tight and got starters out of there when they reached his number without regard about taxing the pen.)
And Gardy and Andy are not generally seen as part of the problem…
We have one chance to take Jones north as a Rule 5 player. Guerrier is turning gross. Our bullpen is gross. Yuck. Not cool. Maybe Punto has 3 pitches. He is, indeed, a gamer.
@Thrylos: I agree totally with that. Gardy is excellent at handling a bullpen when he has a good bullpen to work with–every guy has his role and succeeds in it. That has been the norm during his tenure, until last year.
Last year, Gardy was never able to get guys into set roles (largely because of Neshek’s elbow and their hesitancy to use Crain in a regular role because of his shoulder) and, as guys started failing, he didn’t know what to do. So he ran Rincon out there in Neshek’s slot even though most fans knew that meant an early blown save and a likely loss. Smith fixed that problem by releasing Rincon. Then Gardy ran Bass out there in Rincon’s slot and he wasn’t much better (he couldn’t get much worse). Smith fixed that problem by releasing Bass. So Gardy went to Guerrier, and he proved that you can get worse then both Rincon and Bass. Mijares was a late savior. But the Twins could have easily clinched the division a lot sooner if the bullpen had done its job, especially in late July and August.
Wow, six out of those ten relievers listed at 11:13 are no longer on the pitching staff. I think the pen was NOT fine last year, regardless of what the numbers say.
Using ERA to judge a bullpen is fine, but has it’s limitations.
“Averages” can easily hide the truth as well as illuminate it.
Take out Nathan’s ERA, and suddenly the Twins bullpen ERA looks a bit worse.
It’s similar to having one starter with a 1.00 ERA, and 4 starters with a 5.00 ERA. Average that out, and it looks like your starting staff is about league average, while in reality 4/5 of your rotation is well below league average.
I’m reminded of the story about a man with one foot in boiling water and one foot in a bucket of ice water. Along came a statistician, who took a look at the situation and told the man “you must be pretty comfortable. On average, the water temperature is fine.”
Other than Nathan, Breslow, and Crain this bullpen is a disaster. This is 100% of Bill Smith’s plate as he did ZERO to improve the weakest part of the roster.
As a reponsible GM you cannot go into a season with this solid pitching staff and lineup with clowns like RA Dickie, Guerrier, battling for spots Humber.
Mijares is doing no one any favors. He’s basically forcing the team to send him down. Ayala could help some and is deserving of a roster spot.
