Player value from a fan’s perspective
Posted on May 22nd, 2009 – 10:10 AMBy Howard
In yesterday’s discussion, during which I spoofed those who show disdain for Micharl Cuddyer, frequent-commenter Jason raised an interesting issue. He wrote: “The $8.5 million Cuddyer is making this year comes in part from your season ticket money to sit in 220, Howard. From that standpoint, I would think you would be curious … at the questioning of how that investment is paying off.”
How is my investment paying off? What is a valid measurement that I could use as a way to judge position players?
Let’s try the statistic OPS+. That’s on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, adjusted to take ballpark factors into account.
For this purpose, the strength of the statistic is that 100 is the average. A player above 100 is better than average, a player below is worse.
Now, think of the Twins like an investment portfolio. Some are going to be high-yield, others are going to thud along and some are going to bite. Currently, player OPS+’s range from Joe Mauer’s sick 249 to Nick Punto’s sickening 40. The team OPS+ is currently at 109 and last year’s team was at 104.
Here’s the complete list.
(Cuddyer’s current basic numbers are .275 average/.364 OBP/.471 slugging percenteage.)
Obviously (I think), Mauer won’t maintain his current OPS+ all year. The all-time best* is Barry Bonds’*268* on 2002*. I’d expect that he’ll settle in somewhere between Justin Morneau’s current OPS+ of 177 and Jason Kubel’s 142. (Both Mauer and Morneau finished last season at 137 while having Top 5-MVP seasons; Punto’s was 99. Albert Pujols led the majors last year at 190.)
If Mauer ends up at 160 — 60 percent above average. I’d be thrilled with my “investment” in him — and would know that it’s unreasonable for me to expect everyone to attain that level of offensive scorch. Just like I wouldn’t expect my entire investment portfolio to yield 60 percent, even in the best economic times. You hope high performers and the solid performers more than make up for the dogs.
Cuddyer? His OPS+ right now is 124, the same as in his best season of 2006. That’s a 24 percent “yield” and I’ll take that from him. It’s a big improvement over last season’s injury-hampered 92. and better than his career figure of 107. For the season, I’d be very happy if he performed in the 110-120 range. (It’s early enough in the season that yesterday’s performance moved his OPS+ from 112 to 124, kind of like a huge day in the market.) I’m not going to put him on my All-Star ballot right now, but I’ll make the argument that Cuddyer’s a solid player who has deserved his at-bats. That he’s making $6.75 million this season (or $7.67 million if you want to throw in one-third of his signing bonus) doesn’t bother me.
Based on this method, I’m feeling good about my “investment” in Cuddyer right now. I won’t feel bad about seeing him from my seats in Section 219 at Target Field next season.
294 Responses to "Player value from a fan’s perspective"
It always bothers me when people bring up the paycheck as a reason to hate on a guy. Who cares what they are getting paid? Its not my money. Its just rich people shuffling money to other rich people. Total non-argument. Now, when Carlos Gomez pops a ball up to the catcher trying to bunt with the bases loaded with 2 outs in a 3-0 count…. that’s another story.
There is a stat to determine salary worth of a player. I don’t know it but someone will.
All these numbers are hurting my head…..
Justin, when did Gomez do that?
Your recent points are well-taken, Howard. I am hereby suspending any further criticism of Michael Cuddyer until he deserves it again (as he did in 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008).
I will, however, still continue to criticize Joe Crede at every opportunity.
Shawn
fangraphs uses something caled WPA to calculate a players’ worth, but I don’t totally buy it. They put too much weight on the game situation in which a player performs, IMO. For example, Balckburn got very little positive WPA for seven shutout innings because the score was so lopsided.
Benny: I don’t think it was a 3-0 count (for some reason, I think it was 2-1), but Gomez did unnecessarily swing at a pitch in a game against the Yankees and he popped up to end a rally. The pitcher had just walked a guy, so he probably should have taken that pitch. But I’m sure he’ll learn his lesson.
Here’s my take on salary. I always defer to what Greg Maddux once said. He said that you can’t worry about your salary once you get it, and try to perform up to it, because your salary is based on your previous performance. Now you go out and try to make your next contract. It will be adjusted based on how you perform.
This is even true in the business world. You get a starting salary as an entry level grad. Then as you get more experience and move up, you get paid on that performance.
So a guy like Cuddyer, if he maintains this level, is going to get another big paycheck. If not, the market will adjust and he will make less.
Gomez learn his lesson? I doubt it. He has had so many opportunities to learn from his mistakes and he keeps doing them. I’d like to see him learn his lesson in AAA. Oh oh..did I start that topic again? sorry.
A few weeks ago you (I think it was you, Howard) did an analysis of Torii Hunter’s performance when his whole team was doing well vs when his team was losing. From what I recall, the difference was enormous. Here Hunter leads his team in almost every hitting category currently, but most of these hits aren’t coming in clutch situations.
I think some of the commentary about Cuddyer on this blog has sort of hovered around the idea that he hasn’t come up with big hits when his team really needs them either. I’m not entirely sure how you figured those stats, but I think it’d be interesting to see if Cuddyer shows some of the same tendencies as Hunter.
I have to start off by acknowledging the great game Cuddyer had yesterday. It’s no coincidence that in a game when Cuddy finally takes the bull by the horns, the Twins win. That’s exactly what a lot of us have been talking about. Today I’m happy and humbled.
I’m still trying to digest Howard’s OPS+ formula (I’m not one of those uber-intelligent stats guys), but suffice it to say Cuddy has definitely earned his spot in the lineup for the time being and I’m sure as heck not going to ask for a “platoon” of Cuddy while he’s on fire. That being said, those calling for an apology from me for wondering why Cuddy had to be in the lineup everyday when he struggled through much of the first six weeks of the season are not going to get it. It would’ve done the team absolutely no damage, in my view, to sit him now and again so our youngsters could get some more playing time.
More interesting to me is Howard’s acknowledgment that a season ticket holder (whether it be from 220 or 219), or really all of use who invest in the Twins–directly or indirectly–have standing to question the team’s “investments”. In my view, the Twins are a publicly-held company and the fans are it’s shareholders. 220 is where we conduct shareholder meetings.
A major difference between baseball and football is the value of a game like yesterday. In football, you can brag for weeks, months, or even years (and for some college football nuts, decades) over a 50-point beatdown of the opponent. In baseball, it’s just another game, and the White Sox can take just as much ‘pride’ in knowing they took two out of three. That said, I was in Chicago the last time the Twins laid 20 on the Whities, and that game combined with yesterday’s game should provide some bragging rights for a while at least (recall the Twins scored 32 runs in the doubleheader in 2007–aka Jason’s bachelor party–but even then only earned a split of the four-game series).
So, although the 20 runs don’t carry over to tonight, let’s hope the hot-hitting of Cuddyer, Mauer, and Tolbert does.
We don’t need 20 runs to taunt the Brewers; when you see those clowns on the Plaza or in the stands tonight, just say “1982, baby”, “Where’s your World Championship?”, or “Your best player came from St. Paul”.
Iconoclast, I remember that at-bat, but there was no 3-0 count nor a bunt attempt.
According to Gardy’s comments after the game, Gomez had the green light to swing in that situation if he felt he got a pitch to hit.
I was being optimistic, Koopa Troopa. He’s only 22, right? 22 year old men do stupid things, but they eventually learn from them. When I think of all the idiotic decisions that I made at 22, swinging at a bad pitch pales by comparison.
“In my view, the Twins are a publicly-held company and the fans are it’s shareholders.”
Sorry, Jason. That’s not true. The Twins are a privately-held company, and the fans are customers, not shareholders. If you want to be a shareholder in a pro sports team, you’ll have to buy Green Bay Packers stock, because as far as I know that is the only team that does it like that.
All, I was being facetious with the Gomez thing, that’s total bush league. But seriously, if anybody would ever do such a thing, don’t you think it would be him?
Try telling that to Judge Harry Crump, Ironoclast.
Iconoclast - Well he was 22 last year at this time I think..but still. He has played in many games now and should have learned a few things like patience and working the count. Things he has not been able to do even though he has a year of MLB experience. I don’t think Gomez was ready for the big club last year although he did have a nice impact early on. He was just the one player that was “Ready” in the Santana trade. As of now, Twins got hosed on that trade. Big time.
Cuddy has been better this year.
Howard, do you know the OPS+ range for corner OFers? That’s one of the weaknesses of the stat, it is not position adjusted. It compares all hitters, regardless of their position. It also, of course, does not take into account defense. So, you are not really taking your investment analogy far enough. You’d also want to consider the risk (or in this case position) into account to judge your return.
But, if cuddy has a 124 this year, I’ll be good with that (I think 124 would put him about league median for a RF).
Morales’ is higher than cuddy’s and redmond’s is 68! 68. 68, and he can’t really throw anymore. I still don’t get the decision.
No player is worth today’s investments, no musician is worth the money they get, and no corporate manager is worth the bonuses they receive. It would take some time, but compensations need to start dwindling so ticket prices and goods and services come down drastically.
[…] A Fan’s View – […]
Unfortunately, Koopa, you’re right. It does appear to be a hosing at this point. But I have some hope that Kevin Mulvey will get hot in AAA and make the jump to the majors later this year.
Also, is it just me or does the Pierzynski trade look like a bit less of a bargain this year? True, Nathan is still a star, and that makes it a good trade. But Bonser has been a failure and Liriano is having a terrible year so far. Any thoughts, anyone?
“no musician is worth the money they get”
Not true. I saw a guy playing some weird horn thing on a street corner last weekend. He was worth every cent of the two dollars that people put in his hat.
wheels,
Good question. I pointed out that Torii had a .586 slugging percentage in Angels victories last season and it dropped to .261 in their losses. By comparison, Mauer and Morneau each had about a 100-point difference.
So far this season, Cuddyer’s slugging percentage is .446 in wins and .397 in losses — a small difference compared to the others.
Keep in mind, though, that some of the criticism has been that Cuddyer has put up good numbers in games the Twins have lost. So my answer isn’t going to answer those folks.
Here’s the post wheels asked about.
(Note to surfdoctor: I’m sending the Advil your way.)
Icon, I meant guys like those American Idol kids.
Boy that Adam dude got screwed.
I mean hosed.
I mean cheated.
Twins still gave up nothing losing Pierzynski with Mauer coming up and they got an elite closer which they badly needed in return. Anything after that is just gravy, and they got one of the all-time most dominant half-seasons ever pitched in the history of baseball out of Liriano and they got a serviceable starter for a little while in Bonser. That is still justifiably referred to as one of the most lop-sided trades ever.
How much time do you give a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery to return to form before writing him off?
It seems like over the last couple weeks I’ve seen more and more people jump off the Liriano bandwagon than ever. I still think he’ll be a very good starter, and if necessary could be an even better reliever.
Justy, that is how it’s supposed to work. That Garza/Bartlett thing……..well, that just absolutely s*cked!
I like numbers. They hurt my head a little as noted in my previous post. As for me the only “stat” that I care about is a little something I call the STF. That is - the Surfdoctor Trust Factor. Let me explain. Every player the Twins have has opened up an account with me the moment they sign on. Of course when they leave the account is then closed. In each account I initially supply it with an average amount of trust I use as currency. I watch my fair share of games and throughout these viewings the player deposits more or withdraws this trust currency through their contributions in the game. This is all based on my own eyes and ears. As an example Punto right now is in serious overdraft status. When he is up to the plate subconciously I check his balance and the current reaction would be “automatic out”. If he produces a positive baseball movement of any sort (walk, single, heck even a 12 pitch strikeout) he deposits trust currency into his account on a sliding scale. Of course if he has a 3 pitch strikeout, ball gets away on the third pitch and slides into first while completing the strikeout…..well he just got deeper in debt and has to do even more to get back to at least the baseline amount initially deposited (which should be the first goal for any player in debt). On the other hand Joe Mauers account is in full bloom. This is also not just for offensive activity. Case in point - ball comes off the bat and from the TV perspective we all know that TV angle where it is a double to left center. before the outfielder comes into the TV screen the trust factor for Gomez defensively is that there is a reasonable chance he can get to it, the result is that immediate panic does not set in. Kubel in left on a marginal hit/out situation gives me an opposite feeling but not too extreme. That is why you will not hear me say “this guy sucks” or “that guy rules”. It is all a fluid situation and a continuous process. You know the feeling. Good example is Cuddyer. he was in debt, but he has been making some nice trust deposits into his account to the point that I feel reasonably good that he will contribute positively more often than not. Will it continue? I sure hope so. The beautiful thing is that you can check any player’s account at any time! A real time stat sheet, if you will. here you go - next time Buscher is up with guys on second and third and 2 outs, remember the feeling you have as he is walking to the plate. THAT RIGHT THERE is the STF my friend processing in your brain. The STF, when I can quantify it, look for it on the back of a baseball card soon.
mike,
I didn’t take into account defense because I’m using the assumption that Cuddyer is not a liability on defense. (We’re not talking about Adam Dunn here.) Hardball Times ranks Cuddyer eighth in OPS (not OPS+) among 20 regular American League corner outfielders. Among those he leads right now are Carl Crawford, Ichiro, Denard and Alex Rios.
Here’s the link.
Surfdoctor,
That may be the Comment of the Year.
Howard,
Can I hire you to manage my investment portfolio? I think you would do better than my current guy.
Vic,
Adam is awesome but Kris is more marketable.
Jason, you are a stakeholder, but not a shareholder. Your vote is registered by your decision to “invest” in the product and, indirectly, by your votes at the election booth. Our opinions frankly don’t hold a lot of sway. My bet is the executive officers don’t show up at your Section 220 meetings. Sorry to burst your bubble…
Howard,
here is an excellent post on FanGraphs that tries to determine when the sample size is enough for a particular baseball statistic measurement to be reliable:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/when-samples-become-reliable/
their determination is that OPS (and OPS+) needs 500 PA to be reliable.
Cuddyer has 176 PA this season. Hitting stats that are reliable based on those PA are, according to that analysis:
50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate
Let’s take each of them:
Cuddyer’s Swing rate is 42.3 %, a career low
His Contact Rate is at 80.5% which is less than last year but pretty high. However if you look at where he makes contact, he make career high contact at pitches thrown outside the zone (66.7 %) and his lowest contact since 2005 (87.2 %) on pitches inside the strike zone. That is not that good.
His strikeout rate is 19.0 %, about 2007 levels and higher than 2008 levels.
And his line drive rate (a big indicator, because increases LD% is a lead indicator for increases OPS) is at an all time career low 15.2%
So based on all of this, I suspect that he will finish the season with numbers in between his 2007 and 2008 season, which is not exactly setting the world on fire (or even average for a corner outfielder…)
It is still very early. A couple nice games have moved Cuddyer’s OPS from the .750 range to well above .800. In today’s cbssports.com ratings, Cuddyer is the eighth best right fielder, just behind Chin Shoo Choo and ahead of all the other RFs in the Central. I posted a couple days ago that Cuddyer was the second best value in the Central. I think at the conclusion of the year, that will be the case, and if Choo fades, he may be the best RF in the division, making less money than all but Choo.
Thanks, I’d be happy with 8th, right around league median or just above.
Of course, Crawford is also 25 for 25 in stolen bases (what an amazing stat - I wonder what the record is)! And, I’d guess Quentin heats up and passes him at some point, but that still puts him meidan.
Great blog as usual.
Thrylos… my head hurts.
If anyone cares to read the whole argument about stat stabilization vs PA, the original article is here:
http://statspeak.net/2007/11/525600-minutes-how-do-you-measure-a-player-in-a-year.html
warning: it’s long but fairly well explained in plain english and the equations are at a minimum.
Mine too, Koopa. Great posts but maybe they want to STF-up. OK, I didn’t really mean that.
Thrylos… my head hurts.
ok, the couple paragraph summary:
one cannot make an argument about Cuddyer’s value using OPS, because he does not have enough PAs for that stat to be a meaningful indication for his performance this year
Using stats that are meaningful based on his PAs so far, one can argue that Cuddyer’s performance by the end of the season will be some place between that of his 2007 and 2008 seasons
better? 
Ahh..yes! Much better. Thanks. I can only handle so many numbers in my brain’s RAM at one time before I shut down. I guess I’m a PC.
Cuddyer-mania is running wild.
So, once again, we are able to tell, simply from watching a bunch of baseball games, that Michael Cuddyer is a fairly ordinary corner outfielder, perhaps close to average. Once again, the stats call as much into question as they answer.
well birdofprey/Thrylos,
do you have a stat which adds or subtracts value from a players usefulness based on his ability to perform magic tricks?
Riddle me that.
Depends on the other variables, JustinCB. Does the player have a big mouth?
thanks thrylos for translating it to English for us…
mike’s new moniker reminds me to bring up a thought I’ve had this year watching baseball on ESPN…
I’m glad ESPN supplements the usual stats by showing you a hitter’s OPS on the top of the screen, but is it slightly condescending for them to actually do the math for you?
Example:
“John Doe: .410 OBP, .500 SLG, .910 OPS”
The thrylos rule is this: if you HATE a player or manager, you may factor in negative intangibles that have been pre-approved by the one-person chair of the thrylos rules committee. Examples: being chatty like Cuddyer, or having a propensity for deceit like Gardy. Players and managers NOT in the thrylos blogger of the millenium inner circle of hatred may only be presented in the light of statistics, and once again only those pre-approved by the one-person all-knowing rules committee.
birdofprey,
do you have ever have anything of substance to add? If you disagree with what I say, argue with logical arguments, and make your point, instead of resorting to elementary school recess level… it’s a bit sophomoric…
Where’s T? Time for some blog police.
Yes, Jason that is a bit insulting.
(so you just add them together? oh!)
“John Doe: .410 OBP, .500 SLG, .910 OPS”
Wow. Doe’s a pretty solid hitter. Can he play shortstop? If so, the Twins should make a run at him.
There is a great site for assessing players worth called FANGRAPHS. Among many other ‘new wave’ statistics it calculates a players worth in dollars based on fielding and batting statistics. Here is Cuddy’s page: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1534&position=OF
Currently he is 8.5 runs above the replacement player. I don’t think anyone should complain about his performance, especially as of late!
Elementary school level is NOT sophomoric!
By definition.
Boy that Cuddyer sure is a lightning rod.
What about those other 24 guys though?
So Howard writes a good article making an argument using a statistic (OPS) and thrylos responds with a counter argument also using statistics, he is somehow motivated by hatred?
WJ,
If you’re not hating, you’re not trying.
Howard, if you EVER StubHub those seats (is that a verb now?), just let me know ;-). Worth an out of town trip to get that view, methinks.
“argue with logical arguments, and make your point, instead of resorting to elementary school recess level… it’s a bit sophomoric”
Ha! Thrylos, if you want everyone on the internet to start making logical, coherent statements, you are fighting an uphill battle, my friend! You might as well start asking internet people to spell correctly. Good luck with that, though.
“do you have ever have anything of substance to add?”
yeap. Sure do, thrylos.
Want examples? Here’s a tiny sampling:
1. I contended that the Twins should have signed at least one additional quality BP arm before spring training. You disagreed, stating in unequivocal terms that RP would not be the problem. So sure about it, weren’t you?
2. I contended that Perkins was likely to be an adequate 5th starter (not great) and should be retained as a starter until another pitcher, such as Swarzak or Mulvey emerges. You, on the other hand, brutally savaged Perkin’s performance, looking for every opprtunity to suggest trades involving Perkins. By the way, most of those suggestions look pretty ignorant right now.
Of course, this emotional savagery is the thrylos pattern that has been the source of my amusement: see Gardy, Buscher, Redmond, Anderson, Vavra, Cuddyer, Punto, Rantz…the list goes on. Often, you use sophomoric insults, don’t you? Important for you to note this while you’re in such a mature state of mind, so superior to us elementary school recess types. Look up the word “hypocrite” when you get a chance, will you?
3. I think Luke Hughes will probably never be capable of making routine plays in the field. I think Delaney will look pretty average in next year’s BP and would probably perform similarly to Ayala this year if he came up. I think Cuddyer is average, which makes him Gardy’s second-best outfield option right now. I think Harris, Tolbert, and Punto are incapable of success with every day playing time. Harris is below average as a utility guy but above average as a platoon guy, and we don’t need a platoon guy, so limiting his starts is reasonable. I think one should recall the first two years of performance by past starters (Radtke for example) before drawing conclusions, one way or another, about how our guys project. For example, Blackburn has a chance to get even better, and Slowey may or may not be the next Maddux, and anyone suggesting they can project this stuff is a fraudulent know-it-all.
WJ,
“So Howard writes a good article making an argument using a statistic (OPS) and thrylos responds with a counter argument also using statistics, he is somehow motivated by hatred?”
Sometimes counter arguments are motivated by a search for the truth. Sometimes not. That’s all.
Funny thing, my personal opinion (not worth much, I know) about virtually everybody in trylos’ inner circle of hatred is somewhat unflattering, but not to the point of unfairness.
Just having fun bashing the bashing blogger of the millenium…
I miss Batgirl.
incoherent
I just don’t like magicians. Simple as that. I’ll never be able to get over that, so Cuddyer should go where I think the other magicians should go: Greenland, where they’ll be very far from Thunder Island.
birdofprey is a foul bird??
THRYLOS– So it has come to this that you can conceed his numbers probably do not warrant his criticism but you have to complain about his PROJECTED failures? That’s the problem with number junkies, sometimes you gotta let it go man…. Everyone once and a while you are just wrong, embrace it. That’s baseball. Howard nailed the Cuddyer critics here, admit it.
Too bad we are not allowed to criticize Punto anymore. He is really in bad form right now.
I like surf doctors rule of thumb with the bank analogy while watching the game. Too many numbers distract my drinking.
Saying Howard nailed the Cuddyer critics is a bit of an overstatement. He used some stats and a couple of weeks worth of performance to prove his point, just as t98 and others have used stats and years worth of performance to argue the contrary. I’m glad Cuddy’s eye surgery worked out, and that he’s seeing the ball better in May than in April. I hope he continues to play this well and benefit the team. I remain skeptical.
Stats are an indelible part of beisbol, but they are only evidence, not proof.
Cuddy was 5 - 32 the last 7 games before yesterday’s party going 4 - 6 raised his average 16 points
What was Span the last 7 games?
Not much sense ragging on Cuddyer while his swing is mechanically perfect. Earlier this year I said it looked like he was waving a garden rake at a stray raccoon. Not no more! Now his swing is nice and compact, and his weight transfer looks quick and efficient. His shoulder turn is pivoting around the back of his neck, which means his head is still and he can see the ball at contact. Result: the ball is exploding off his bat. Right now Cuddyer appears to be combining Morneau’s stance with Mauer’s swing.
So it has come to this that you can conceed his numbers probably do not warrant his criticism but you have to complain about his PROJECTED failures?
I don’t thing you got my argument (and I never projected a “failure”).
My argument is:
a. Certain statistic measurements (stats) are not significant at 174 PA (including OPS and OPS+; these need 500 PA to be significant)
b. Certain stats are significant at 174 PA. If you look at them, including Cuddyer’s line drive percentage, which is a lead indicator for OPS, and is at career low for Cuddyer, one could argue that Cuddyer’s season numbers would be between 2007 and 2008.
No “failures”… and no “complains”. Just statements why does everything has to be dualistic (hate/love, good/bad, success/failure) or critical, instead of what it is: arguing using data and logic…
before yesterday’s game Magic Man’s splits in Twin win’s and losses was:
WINS 1HR 9RBI .292
LOSSES 3HR 11RBI .231
So…Cuddyer is instrumental to Twins wins.
Thrylos wins the non-prize for being the first blogger in history to use the word ‘dualistic.’
My issue with a lot of the stat-head arguments is that some of them (not pointing fingers because, of course, this wouldn’t apply to ANYONE here!) tend to want it both ways…
When whoever the guy is they feel like piling on this week has a lousy OPS, OPS+, KK/BB ration, or whatever stat they can dig up to trash a player with, that’s what they’ll throw out there.
But when any of those stats turns around and said player has “good stats” in those categories, then we get “but it’s a small sample size and it doesn’t prove he’s really any good,” or we just get a new stat thrown out there that isn’t as positive.
In other words, if you feel strongly enough about something or someone, there’s always a stat out there to dig up that will prove how right you are.
“Howard nailed the Cuddyer critics here, admit it.”
No, Cuddyer nailed the critics with his 4-hit game yesterday. If we continue to see that throughout the year, then those of us who have questioned his “magic” will truly look silly for having done so.
I have high hopes for Cuddyer the rest of the season. Like jimbo said, they guy’s shown improvement.
A new Tilted Kilt just opened up a couple blocks down the street from my office. Good place to watch….a game.
WJ Span is 8-34 in the last 7 games before yesterday also trivial did anyone know his real first name is…
Keiunta
Denard is his middle name..
When whoever the guy is they feel like piling on this week has a lousy OPS, OPS+, KK/BB ration, or whatever stat they can dig up to trash a player with, that’s what they’ll throw out there.
it has to do with appropriateness of the stat.
for example: A player’s current OPS this season (e.g. Morales vs. Redmond) indicates how “hot” he currently is so far this season. Yes Cuddyer has been “hot” and Morales is hotter than Redmond. However, OPS is not significant at this point to be used to project the whole season a player will have.
Two different things. Context is paramount in the use of stats.
Good article, Howard. Those of you Cuddyer haters who say his numbers don’t mean this much at this point — you are right but you are total and complete hypocrites because you were judging him by his 2009 stats also (a few weeks ago when they weren’t as good).
Simple fact of the matter is that the last season in which he was fully healthy (2006) he had a great year. This season is looking similar so far. Let’s wait until the end of the year to judge whether he is worth his paycheck (I think he will be!).
All the negative comments toward Cuddyer (of all people) on these discussion forums is mind-boggling to me.
By the way, along with Cuddyer, I was also proud of another outfielder who went 4-for-6 yesterday, including a three-run homer and 5 RBI total.
That outfielder? Lew Ford of the Long Island Ducks. Can’t you just hear Lew going “Quack” as he crosses home plate?
I heard Keiunta before but thought that was his middle name. Wonder why he chooses to go by Denard?
Torii’s middle name is Kedar.
WJ - not sure if Cuddy is instrumental in Twin’s wins because he has more HRs and RBI production in losses?
checking runs scored for Magic Man
17 Wins 10 runs scored
22 losses 10 runs scored
so analysis by paralysis says Cuddy contributes in Twin wins!! who knew!
So, the point to today’s discussion is:
It’s ok to use statistics to make an argument. Just don’t go into too great detail.
i think the point to today’s discussion is: it’s ok to use statistics as long as they support what i already think.
and again it can’t be said enough just because many of us suggest Cuddy is not worth his high salary for a small self-imposed payroll team likethe Twins
does not mean we hate him personally or even that in my case that I think he is a terrible player..
I think he is an average player that in comparision to the Twin’s team payroll needs to be far above average to justify his salary AND
if by trading Magic Man it allows Billy to resign Mauer to the 20M a year deal then yes I say he needs to go
Well we could be paying Magglio Ordonez $15m this year, Carlos Guillen $10M,Paul Konerko $12M,or Jermain Dye $12M instead. All of them make a lot more than Cuddy but have numbers equal or lesser.
“[why does everything has to be dualistic instead of what it is?]”
Ah, the irony, thrylos.
Do you not see the slightest hints that your emotions cloud your logic and that your selective use of “data” is a pretense on your part? By the way, when you contend that Gardy lies, is that “data”?
Just asking. yeap.
Crow…I seem to remember Dye hitting a fairly important grand slam on Wednesday night which essentially single-handedly extended our losing streak to 6 games. He also has 10 HR this year and hit .292 with 34 HR last year. Jermaine Dye is a player worth his salary in my opinion.
Fair point about hurting our chances to resign Mauer — but I think Cuddyer is capable of similar numbers to Tori Hunter (who also took until his late 20’s to be a consistent producer) and is worth a similar salary. Again, we’ll see at the end of the year. Probably not worth discussing now.
WRONG!
So, the point to today’s discussion is:
use stats but look at them in context of a player’s current season and his career example:
if you took Tyner’s 1 game he hit a HR and said “look if he did this every game he would have 162 HRs!” that would be taking stats out of context
About three years ago, Michael Cuddyer lead the team in doubles, if I remember correctly. Maybe 4 years ago.
Anyway, that intrigued me, so, I took a look at how many RBI’s Cuddyer had. He was on the other side of 80. So, good numbers, something to build on, wouldn’t you say?
Anyway, over the last couple of years, and no one can deny this, Cuddyer, for whatever reason, started showing a predisposition toward swinging at the low and outside pitch. I can’t tell you how many times I watched Cuddyer go down on that pitch. It got pretty brutal for a while.
Well, for whatever reason, Cuddyer has started laying off that pitch. Earlier this year, he most certainly didn’t. Lately, he’s improved.
Is it a trend? Who knows. No matter what, up until recently, Cuddyer’s propensity to strike out on the low and away pitch screamed “bench me.”
When Cuddyer is not hitting, his defense does not make up for his lack of offense..you know, same argument people make about Nick Punto.
So, Surfdoctor, I’m with you. Cuddyer is starting to move into the “neutral balance” account. I say that, because, well, even Tolbert hit a home run yesterday. So, still a wait and see.
Similar salary to what Tori was making with the Twins… that is. Not the ridiculous amount the Angels are paying him.
Crow just proved my point about taking stats out of context all the player he mentioned have had career number far superior to magic man’s
“All the negative comments toward Cuddyer (of all people) on these discussion forums is mind-boggling to me.”
We’re not allowed to gripe about Punto anymore.
“I think he is an average player that in comparision to the Twin’s team payroll needs to be far above average to justify his salary…”
Absolutely.
Thrylos98, some people like to argue for arguements sake, and like to get under peoples skin. They are often referred to as “trolls”. Please ignore them and continue to “argue using data and logic”. Nobody has to like your arguements, but most of us respect them because they are born of logic and backed up by stats. Keep up the good work and ignore the trolls.
“I say that, because, well, even Tolbert hit a home run yesterday. So, still a wait and see.”
And in this same game, where it appeared the White Sox were throwing BP…20 runs, 20 hits, LNP manages to go 0-for-5. Nevermind Tolbert’s HR, Cuddy’s 4-hits, or Mauer’s 6 RBI, that might have been the most eye-popping line in the box score.
In a related note, who wants to bet against my saying that tonight’s starting SS is Nick Punto?
Delmon Young has 2 extra base hits in 83 at-bats. Plus, his defense reminds me of a Marty Cordova (stiff and slow)…Is this our replacement for Cuddyer? Or please entertain me how this lineup and/or defense gets better without Cuddyer in the lineup?
Jason will never give in, as witness his 12:49 post.
For, as Howard pointed out, even before yesterday’s performance Cuddy’s OPS+ was 112 after having a lackluster weekend in NY.
This “Cuddy controversy” is a false issue. And it’s too bad that Howard fell for the troll who keeps bringing it up.
If there’s any chance that Twins players and management peek at this blog, they will have reinforced their disdain for the foolish endeavors of chat that so often waste our time here.
Too bad we weren’t discussing Mauer being in the 2-hole, a topic which actually had some productive possibility as opposed to the superstition surrounding the current Cuddy discussions.
By the way, when you contend that Gardy lies, is that “data”?
No, that’s a statement and it was accompanied with data that supported it:
before spring training he said that his outfielders performance in ST will determine who starts and who sits to begin the season. 3 outfielders had OPS higher than .800, the 4th had a .560 OPS.
If Gardy were not deceitful, he would have started the season with the 3 best OF during ST.
Instead he went to the OF he pronounced at the Fargo dog and pony show, until Gomez played himself out of a starting job.
Shawn Bradley is right. There can be no argument that Cuddyer doesn’t belong in this lineup right now.
FIRE is also right, however. There is an argument the Twins made a bad decision in investing $25 million in Cuddyer.
Does anyone really believe that the Twins signed Cuddyer’s extension while having in their mind that it probably meant they wouldn’t be able to afford Mauer? I don’t think so.
I would hazzard to guess that every financial decision they’ve made has been done with, “we’re going to have to shell out big money for Mauer,” in the back of their minds. It’s not like the guy’s performance has snuck up and taken them by surprise.
Cuddyer’s contract, and that of every other guy they’ve given extensions to the past 2 years, was done in anticipation of significantly increased revenue beginning in 2010 and I don’t believe for a moment that it’s a coincidence that Mauer’s current runs out after 2010. They knew that they were going to need to re-sign him before his walk-away year and timed it to coincide with the year the new stadium opened.
romer,
If by “give in” you’re asking me to take back my criticisms of Cuddyer pre-May 21, 2009, then you’re right, I’m not “giving in”.
If, however, by “give in” you mean “give up talking about Cuddyer altogether”, well, Howard used Cuddy as the focus for his blog in back-to-back days…he didn’t title his blog “Mauer looks like he belongs in 2-hole”.
To repeat: Michael Cuddyer’s play of late, particularly in yesterday’s game, proves he should be our right fielder for the time being.
JC,
I agree with you, but I also think that they have to extend him sooner than later. Every day that passes, Mauer’s contract will be higher. As a matter of fact they should have done it while he was on the DL. Could they have known that he will come back the way he did? Of course not. But one should buy low and both for Mauer and the baseball salary market, that time was as low as one could get. A missed opportunity, but they should do it ASAP…
I think its time the collective ire of this blog sets its sights on Delmon Young. Forgive the superlative, but this guy is really turning out to be one of the worst cases of unfulfilled expectations the Twins have ever seen. At least Cuddyer didn’t cost us a productive player (and at times is a productive player himself). How bad does this rotation need a Garza right now? How bad does this team need a 4th outfielder right now?
thrylos…the sad reality for the Twins is Mauer’s price tag will double, if not triple, if he finishes this season at the rate he’s going now.
There’s no way Joe Mauer’s agent wants to talk long term contract when his client’s stock is shooting up higher than Memorial Day gas prices.
I think someone should develop a set of stats to keep track of how all of the comment bloggers are performing this season. Then maybe the Tribune will create a new blog based solely on the commenting of blogger’s numbers and their performance as it pertains to the pertinent sport at hand.
Here are some samples:
• VPI: (Valid Point Index), merits blog comments on a given topic
• VPI+: (Valid Point Index Plus), Merits VPI + the use of statistical backup
• NRI: (Negative Remark Indicator), keeps track of those who tend to lean towards the glass half empty folks
• BA: (Bashing Average) NRI divided by the number of times Punto’s name is part of the equation.
Oh, the possibilities are endless!
I’d like a Thrylos98 rookie card for my efforts.
I think its time the collective ire of this blog sets its sights on Delmon Young.
As long as Young continues to put numbers higher than Puckett’s at the same age there is no way anyone should be resentful of Young (same for Gomez).
“Or please entertain me how this lineup and/or defense gets better without Cuddyer in the lineup?”
folks are forgetting who is left out of the lineup it’s not Young it’s GOGO
outfield from LF to RF of Span/GOGO/Young is far superior to the outfield with Cuddy in RF
I am also betting the Farm I guess that GOGO will improve with regular playing time to match Cuddy’s production AND saving Cuddy’s huge salary may mean keeping Mauer..
folks Twin’s are facing an Arbritraion death match starting next year over the next 2 seasons the entire roster not including Nathan,Baker,Morneau hits the Arbritation jackpot
Jason: I did notice Punto’s 0-5. I also noticed he whiffed three times. I’m not going to take your bet, because it would take an Act of God to get him out of the lineup.
This from Jon Heyman today: “One AL executive said he believes that Pedro Martinez would sign for $3 million plus incentives now. Seems like a pretty good deal to me.” Any chance this happens?
romer, since you brought up the #2 hitter subject, I’ll bite.
I had to just laugh late last night as I read through all the post-game quotes from players and Gardy about the subject.
On the one hand, there was Gardy talking about how he just felt that the #2 hitter needed to be someone who bunts and moves runners and how ideally it would be Casilla, Tolbert or Harris getting better at that role some day. You could just about see his brain struggling to get past the stereotypes that have been ingrained there for as long as he’s been in the game. “This is just how it’s supposed to be.”
Then there were players (Morneau, specifically, I believe) saying “Hellyah! we love getting the extra shots that moving us up in the order give us!” These guys don’t give a flip about what’s supposed to be… they just know they went out and hung 20 on the BitchSox with the new lineup!
Now, to be fair, I think the success had more to do with Colon and Betemit sucking than it did with the new lineup… but if the players think they do well with the new lineup, then you ride that horse as long as you can.
Alls I’m saying is Delmon has been bouncing some checks in his STF account.
“…no musician is worth the money they get..”
“…I meant guys like those American Idol kids. Boy that Adam dude got screwed.”
Vic Power, I hope you know a helluva lot more about baseball than you do about music!
“Does anyone really believe that the Twins signed Cuddyer’s extension while having in their mind that it probably meant they wouldn’t be able to afford Mauer? I don’t think so.”
hmm.. Hunter and Johan were let go even though that stadium deal was coming.. the Pohlad’s have done nothing but slash the payroll since it’s high of 85M where’s the proof they are suddenly going to raise it significently?
Delmon is on my poop list…plus, my wife hates him because they had to trade away “hottie” Bartlett to get him.
Eddie..I like your way of thinking. Very good.
thrylos:
“before spring training he said that his outfielders performance in ST will determine who starts and who sits to begin the season. 3 outfielders had OPS higher than .800, the 4th had a .560 OPS.”
You used logic here. But it’s flawed on at least two levels. Gardy did NOT tell you he would base his judgment regarding performance on spring OPS, did he? Just because you, being the superior judge of performance, insist on using OPS, that makes Gardy a liar?
Emotional foaming at the mouth on your part. Call it bad judgment instead, OK? That’s all. Second, weren’t you regaling us all with your wisdom earlier this morning on the statistical irrelevance of OPS in fewer than 500 AB’s? What gives here? The convenience of spewing venom at Gardy?
And Scott, if I were a troll by your definition, I would take issue with most of you, but I don’t. I only take issue with facts, ideas, and opinions that are debatable, and I use logic and data when appropriate and for the truth, not for the sake of winning an argument. thrylos gets kudos from me on occasion, and we agree on some things, but I do find his weaknesses almost as well as he finds Cuddyer’s, or Gardy’s.
” I use logic and data when appropriate”
so your not appropriate most of the time?????
Someone is clearly obsessed with thrylos98.
it’s also not logic to take issue with a fact..
WJ birdofprey wants someone’s else job on this blog I think…
Actually birdy you only take issue with anything that t98 says. How about giving it a rest?
I too have been hard on Cuddyer. That does not mean that I hate him. I just think his playing every day, when he stunk, instead of giving Go-Go, who is clearly better defensively, a chance was wrong. I hope Cuddy’s brief spurt yesterday and earlier this month show he is coming around and does indeed deserve to play every day.
Gardy is still a moron for thinking Mauer should bat 3rd and that we need a bunter and someone who moves Span along batting 2nd. No, we need someone who can get a darned hit and get on base.
And Punto still stinks.
kay said it better then any of us!
FIRE, if you don’t understand the difference between spending money 2 years before you anticipate seeing an increase in revenue and spending it when you actually realize that increase in revenue, I’m not sure there’s much I can say about that.
I would humbly suggest that the Twins HAVE demonstrated a willingness to spend some money by signing several multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts with Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Baker, and Punto. Now, we may have issues with whether all of them were worth the contracts they got, but that doesn’t negate the fact that the organization HAS spent money to keep players THEY believe warrant keeping.
It could just be that it made little fiscal sense to give a 6 year contract to a starting pitcher or a 5 year contract to an aging outfielder, regardless of any anticipated revenue increases down the road.
I’d add that while I doubt the Cuddyer contract has one iota of effect on the chances of eventually signing Mauer, the affordability of a Mauer contract WOULD have almost certainly been affected by having to pay Santana and/or Hunter anything close to what the Mets and Angels are coughing up.
” I use logic and data when appropriate”
so your not appropriate most of the time?????
FIRE!!! Funny stuff, you grappling with the concept of logic.
WJ, try ranting irrationally, and watch me turn on you. No obsession with anyone in particular.
Kay, I’ve been hard on Cuddyer, hard on Punto, hard on Gardy occasionally, etc. I don’t call people morons, though, and find it to be classless.
I just gotta say this, 2006 for Cuddy was not a “great” year. Look at the 2006 stats for RF, and compare him to other RF, and then tell me if you really think it was great.
As for his salary, if he’s going to be paid what he’s paid, as a percent of their tiny and ever declining budget, he needs to be great.
Please don’t ask me to comment on Delmon Young, I’m afraid my NRI would set some kind of record.
I just think his playing every day, when he stunk, instead of giving Go-Go, who is clearly better defensively, a chance was wrong.
I think some consideration must be given to the possibility that Cuddy’s ’spurt’ may be related to being permitted to play every day during his stunkitude.
Some of you could suck the air out of a great July 4 fireworks display. “NOT ENOUGH RED ONES, DARN IT!” “WHY DID THEY PLAY LEE GREENWOOD???” I think it’s time to turn off the computers, go outside and get some fresh air.
Sign Mauer now please. Seriously, I don’t want to worry about this, or even talk about it, for the next 2 years.
JimCrikkitt said it better than any of us.
I think its time the collective ire of this blog sets its sights on Delmon Young.
I think it might be a good idea to let Delmon get his mom in the ground first.
Yes birdy, all your comments here have been so “classy.” How about this, Gardy’s refusal to see the light of day on batting Mauer 2nd must be due sheer stubbornness on his part. Better?
Well said Fran.
mike, exactly what “tiny and declining budget” are you referring to?
The payroll dropped when Santana and Hunter came off the books. Duh, what a friggin shock!
What in the world are you looking at that makes it appear the budget for this team is “tiny” and/or is going to be “declining”?
Cuddyer is getting paid about what a guy with his service time and past performance levels in the major leagues warrants. Isn’t this what so many people have said they want the Twins to do… start showing a willingness to pay something remotely close to market rates for players instead of just letting anyone who gets close to free agency walk?
Better, Kay. I think I agree with that assessment as well.
FIRE, if you don’t understand the difference between spending money 2 years before you anticipate seeing an increase in revenue and spending it when you actually realize that increase in revenue,
that makes sense if that actually happened but what happened is the payroll went down 20M from it’s high don’t you think another 20M and change would have been enough to keep Johan like a year early when he wanted to actually stay here?
your assessment that by not signing Johan and Hunter it allowed the multi-year contract you listed is correct.. but let’s not pretend that the Twin’s also went 20M cheaper this year and 25M cheaper last year bottom line Twin’s did exactly waht Johan and Hunter accused them of doing.. playing for the future by not even keeping the payroll at the current level and trying to truly contend with a real ACE!
Mauer batting 2nd will cure all our bullpen woes and the starting pitchers collapsing with and without leads.
There is a parallel universe blog somewhere full of positive reinforcement and constructive criticism. Imagine that.
“I think it’s time to turn off the computers, go outside and get some fresh air.”
I so desperately want to walk out of work now…
“There is a parallel universe blog somewhere full of positive reinforcement and constructive criticism. Imagine that.”
along with a parallel Twin’s FO and team that warrant it!!
File this one under the “Why are we having this discussion” folder. Michael Cuddyer has an OPS+ of 124. Kirby Puckett’s career average for OPS+ was 124. When he was the highest paid player in the game, he had an OPS+ of 120. Nobody ever complained about whether we were getting good value for our investment then. Why complain now?
Cuddyer is not even in the upper tier for his position in salary. Yet he is in the upper tier for OPS+, and he’s trending upward after a very slow start.
I’m thinking there are lots of other guys to complain about Jason, stating with the guy with the OPS+ of 40 who’s scheduled to make $8.5 million between this year and next. AS such, he is the fifth highest paid player on the team.
Jim Pohlad has stated publicly that player payroll will on average be roughly 50+% of revenue. Before drawing conclusions, why not wait to see what the averages look like? Why is it such a difficult concept to grasp that this young team will not reach the average until more players become arb-eligible? Do you want the teanm to randomly spend payroll dollars, or do you want the team to continue to lock in its better players over time as the need and opportunity presents itself?
“I think some consideration must be given to the possibility that Cuddy’s ’spurt’ may be related to being permitted to play every day during his stunkitude.”
Fran, if that’s the case, then do the ends really justify the means? After all, we only won (1) game yesterday.
Of course you’re right Shawn. Batting Mauer 2nd won’t solve all the team’s woes. But it sure might help our offensive production, and a few more runs, just a few more, might have given us a sweep of the Yankees instead of the other way around.
“File this one under the “Why are we having this discussion” folder. Michael Cuddyer has an OPS+ of 124. Kirby Puckett’s career average for OPS+ was 124. When he was the highest paid player in the game, he had an OPS+ of 120. Nobody ever complained about whether we were getting good value for our investment then. Why complain now?”
You are not seriously relying on Howard’s OPS+ numbers to suggest that Cuddyer is as valuable as Puckett was, are you? If so, then I will never consider OPS+, which I first heard of this morning, ever again.
JimC, and then they’ll let the next guy walk, and the next player, and the next. The payroll is smaller this year than last, which is smaller than the year before.
The fact that they don’t have many good players to re-sign is not exactly a great excuse, as a matter of fact, it is part of the problem.
I’m looking for them to sign a FA that is in or near his prime earning years. I want them to sign Mauer. I want them to deal prospects for proven players, in their earning primes, not for other prospects. I want them to deal older players who are on their decline, and give younger players a shot (when those younger players are better).
If the goal was to clear space to sign mauer, then they should sign Mauer.
I liked the taking a shot on signing Baker. I liked the M&M signings, and the Kubel extension. I thought (and still do) that they overpaid on Cuddy - a guy with one league median year, when they have a small budget. But outside of maybe Span, who else would you even give an extenion to other than Mauer?
Should Terry Ryan have negotiated with Santana a year earlier? Absolutely!
Note that the guy isn’t the GM any more.
But no, that $20mm WOULDN’T have kept Santana once he got to the point where he could use his no-trade clause to blackmail the Twins in to a trade on his terms.
But even using your figures, if the team was $25mm “cheaper” last year and $20mm “cheaper” this year… that doesn’t sound like it’s “declining” to me.
We’re having this discussion because it’s fun to complain about players. That’s part of the fun of being a fan.
I think the numbers tend to show that Cuddyer is just fine. But people will continue to complain about Cuddyer because they just don’t like him. Liking and disliking players is also part of being a fan. For example, Brian Harper used to be one of my favorite players for no good reason at all. Conversely, my Dad always really hated Juan Berenguer. Again, there was no reason for this at all. But it was fun.
Yeah, imagine the parallel universe LNP. Tall, handsome, clean shaven. Doesn’t ever slide head first into anything because he’s too busy trotting around the bases on the way to his 75 HR season and robust 315 OPS+ and 1.500 OPS…. wow.
Morneau.
I think Kirby played gold glove CF, while Cuddy is considered below average in RF. OPS+ is a great stat, but is not the be all and end all.
How many of you are willing to go on the record saying the Twins should have re-signed Hunter and Santana regardless of the price tag?
“Jim Pohlad has stated publicly that player payroll will on average be roughly 50+% of revenue… Do you want the teanm to randomly spend payroll dollars, or do you want the team to continue to lock in its better players over time as the need and opportunity presents itself?”
so average roughly means a 25% drop in payroll when you could have locked in one of it’s BEST players in his prime?….. birdie you are coo coo
Walter, I would have signed Santana to the same contract the Mets did, if I was confident the new stadium would allow me to also sign Mauer and a couple of other players. If not, I’d have held him through last year and either contended or traded him at the deadline.
I would not have signed Hunter to that contract. No way.
mike if you really want them to become an organization that goes in the FA market for top tier players in their prime and trades their prospects for “proven players”, you really do follow the wrong team. That is not and probably never will be the Twins. Maybe you should become a Yankee fan.
This team builds from within and supplements that talent with role players from outside when it feels it needs to.
My frustration has been when they’ve traded away talented and productive players simply to avoid paying them once they become arb eligible or, heaven forbid, come close to free agency. From what I’ve seen, that trend has been getting reversed and I can only assume it’s because of the increased revenue anticipated starting next year.
Basically, what it sounds like you want is for every player decision they make to be 100% the best possible decision every time.
Good luck with that.
and then they’ll let the next guy walk, and the next player, and the next.
Who else should they have re-signed prior to Hunter and Santana? Because this myth that they won’t resign their “stars” started long before those two guys walked.
Jacque Jones? Koskie?
“How many of you are willing to go on the record saying the Twins should have re-signed Hunter and Santana regardless of the price tag?”
Kind of a loaded question, WJ. I would say yes, if it meant an overall increase in payroll. I would say “no” if that meant we had to turn our back on other valuable players like Mauer and Morneau. Cuddy and Punto I would’ve traded instead of signed if it meant we had any chance of keeping one or both of the players you name.
Howard said: “Surfdoctor,
That may be the Comment of the Year.”
Took the words right out of my mind, Howard. He said:
“The beautiful thing is that you can check any player’s account at any time!”
And so it goes………this is the entertainment which is known as the game of baseball.
Please, everyone, read surfdoctor’s 11:00 post. It’s a dandy allegory of how and why we watch the baseball games.
[NOTE to surfdoctor —- please use paragraphs, ‘cos now I got your headache!]
WJ: no to Hunter, yes to Santana
Obligatory positive post: I like where Blackburn is going. Keep it up.
Didn’t thrylos just compare Delmon Young’s hitting stats to Kirby at the same age…?? Now we’re jumping all over Cuddyer being compared to Kirby…?? Where is the fair and balanced bashing??
Fran, if that’s the case, then do the ends really justify the means? After all, we only won (1) game yesterday.
Jason, I don’t think we know yet.
JimC: I don’t want it all the time, just when, say, they are on a five year run and have no DH or 3B, and they are one player away from being a great team. That would be one time to trade for the present. That would be one time to sign a good FA.
“How many of you are willing to go on the record saying the Twins should have re-signed Hunter and Santana regardless of the price tag?”
Hindsight is 20/20. I will go on record saying that the Twins should have signed David Ortiz in 2003 regardless of price tag. I will also go on record to say that they should never have signed Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz or Sidney Ponson regardless of price tag.
Oh, and they probably should have kept Rod Carew and Lyman Bostock.
You are not seriously relying on Howard’s OPS+ numbers to suggest that Cuddyer is as valuable as Puckett was, are you? If so, then I will never consider OPS+, which I first heard of this morning, ever again.
OPS+ is the best way to evaluate players from different eras. If this is the first time you’ve ever heard of OPS+, it explains a lot. If you’re not willing to use the best objective measures, it explains why we are having this discussion. We get it, you have an irrational dislike of Michael Cuddyer and you are unwilling to listen to reason or objective analysis.
WJ - I am going onrecord saying Johan should have been resigned I said then and continue to say Hunter should not have been.
“But people will continue to complain about Cuddyer because they just don’t like him”
again a silly argument that has no merit we don’t know any of this players personally.. I find it incredible that the “don’t dare say anything negative about Twin’s” club would accuses commenters of criticizing or praising a player based on because we don’t “like” someone we don’t know instead of performance on the field
Somewhere in a parallel universe, the Joe Mauer who “can’t hit for power so we should all just accept that” or so says Mr. Souhan, is playing. Probably on the same team where little Nicky is Mighty Nicky, the home run king!
I do not want to be at work today. Can’t even go home early though as we’re headed down to the game tonight where I hope to try out some of Jason’s useful phrases on the blowhard Brewers’ fans.
Lyman Bostock story: I’m on Met Stadium field for picture day. And there are about 100 other kids around Bostock. I yell out “please tell me you are going to stay a Twin”, and he says he wants to be. Alas, it was not meant to be. What a great player.
I think I lost my giddiness at some point today at work. So, in the spirit of giddienss, I too think Blackburn has been a bright spot this year. BA isn’t always wrong.
And no, I don’t think Cuddyer is anywhere close value wise. I was merely illustrating that Cuddyer is doing well by comparing his OPS+ to the career OPS+ of the best all-around player in Twins history. There are 10 other position in the roster doing worse than Cuddyer right now.
mike,
“But outside of maybe Span, who else would you even give an extenion to other than Mauer?”
Extensions may be offered to Span, Slowey, Blackburn, Liriano, for example.
Are you perhaps contradicting yourself a little, mike? Sign better younger players, but do it “last year”? Sign younger players who are better, but the problem is they don’t have any? I think I get your point, but are you looking for an immediate simple fix when reality calls for an ongoing and complex process to ensure improvement?
This team is heading in the right direction, but there are fits and starts, a few setbacks. There’s a lot to be optimistic about. Some players will fail, but others will step up, and the farm system is in its best shape, maybe in the team’s history.
Didn’t thrylos just compare Delmon Young’s hitting stats to Kirby at the same age…?? Now we’re jumping all over Cuddyer being compared to Kirby…?? Where is the fair and balanced bashing??
ok, Let’s compare Cuddyer to Kirby, but the same way we compare Young to Kibry - age-wise:
age 24: Kirby: OPS+ 79 Cuddyer: 97 (114 PA)
25: Kirby: 92 Cuddyer: 99
26: Kirby: 141 Cuddyer: 97
27: Kirby: 132 Cuddyer: 124
28: Kirby: 152 Cuddyer: 111
29: Kirby: 131 Cuddyer: 92
30: Kirby: 120 Cuddyer: 124 (176 PA)
close?
cmathewson,
If you honestly think Michael Cuddyer is as valuable as Kirby Puckett, that explains a lot.
I’ve been watching Twins baseball since I was 7 (1986). I am not embarrassed to be a rookie when it comes to OPS+ and do not feel my credibility on evaluating a player is lost because of it.
As for my feelings towards Cuddyer, I would refer you to Kay’s 1:44 post. I do not “hate” any Twins player. I would have Punto over for dinner tomorrow and hope he appreciates how I grill a steak.
I’m looking for them to sign a FA that is in or near his prime earning years.
That’s difficult, even with the new ballpark and added revenues, as long as the likes of the Yankees are participating in the auction.
FIRE,
How high would you have been willing to go to keep Santana? That’s the point. Someone said the Twins should have matched the Mets offer. That is fair. What if NY decided to get in a bidding war? Would you go $25mil? $30mil?
Fire Vavra..: I have to contend that liking or disliking a player IS a legitimate reason to praise or criticize him. Baseball is a segment of the entertainment business. We watch games and follow teams in order to be entertained. Entertaining is the players’ job. So if I am amused by Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, that is a perfectly legitimate reason to like those players and post positive things about them on this blog.
Of course, I am all in favor of using actual evidence. And I agree that stats and examples make better conversation than unfounded assertions. But liking and disliking players is natural, and it’s a part of being a fan.
Anyone excited to see Mat Gamel this weekend? I want to see if his hyped power is for real. As long as all his shots go foul, of course.
Jason,
I like to think I am somewhat knowledgable about baseball, including its stats, but I never heard of OPS either until about a year ago.
“I would have Punto over for dinner tomorrow and hope he appreciates how I grill a steak.”
I think Punto would appreciate the steak. Pat Neshek, on the other hand, would not, because he is a vegan.
It’s too bad that Carlos Silva is not still on the team, Jason. He looks like the kind of guy who would never turn down a good steak!
Walter,
How many of you are willing to go on the record saying the Twins should have re-signed Hunter and Santana regardless of the price tag?
I am. Speaking as the fan I am, unequivocally yes. I luv seeing baseball played at the highest caliber by good and decent guys. But then I don’t give a crap bout their budget. I have no idea what the real dynamics are that are at work on the “executive committee”.
About those who are talking of keeping Santana at his current contract:
That would have tied between 25 to 40% of the Twins’ payroll to a singe player (a pitcher never the less). Do you know any teams that did anything when that much of their payroll was tied to a single player?
the most recent example of such teams are the ARoid Rangers. How well did that server them?
They weren’t bashing the OPS though thrylos…everyone got sentimental and starting bashing what Kirby meant to the Twins and how dare they compare him to Cuddyer, when you did the exact same thing. Twins fans don’t look at Kirby’s numbers…we remember his impact on the club on all facets…not just hitting, like what you have with your man crush on Delmon.
I shed a tear just then writing about Kirby…
And before I call it a day (or at least a work day), let me just tag on to what Jason and Icon said.
I come to these blogs for entertainment so it’s up to all of you to entertain me. In the course of that, I may “like and dislike” some of you… but I’d be more than happy to buy any of you a beer at Hubert’s before one of the games of the Pirate series I’ll be in town for next month.
Thrylos has a good point about Santana’s percentage of the payroll. One other thing that I remember: 2007 was Santana’s worst year as a Twins’ starter. I think that there was even talk at that point that his changeup had lost its edge and that he might not be as dominant over the next several years.
Of course, as I said before, hindsight is 20/20.
FIRE!!!
“I find it incredible that the “don’t dare say anything negative about Twin’s” club would accuses commenters of criticizing or praising a player based on because we don’t “like” someone we don’t know instead of performance on the field”
You’re misinterpreting things. If you criticize someone, but fail to be balanced and fair, you open yourself up to some pushback.
You are one of those who is guilty of throwing some of us who balance out the criticism with the praise into your little make-believe “don’t dare say anything negative” club. It’s just not an accurate portrayal of most of us who find the constant hyper-critical stuff to be silly.
Jason:
Please read.
And no, I don’t think Cuddyer is anywhere close value wise. I was merely illustrating that Cuddyer is doing well by comparing his OPS+ to the career OPS+ of the best all-around player in Twins history. There are 10 other position in the roster doing worse than Cuddyer right now.
amen, Shawn Bradley Guy.
Jim Crikket, I’d love to join you for that beer, but I live in California. But if you’re at the Twins - A’s game in Oakland on June 11th, I’ll buy you a beer.
“I was merely illustrating that Cuddyer is doing well by comparing his OPS+ to the career OPS+ of the best all-around player in Twins history.”
And in so doing, you severely discredited what stock we should put into OPS+.
I hadn’t read your 2:23 post when I posted at 2:25. Must be a Friday-afternoon-before-holiday-weekend thing.
I will also go on record to say that they should never have signed Livan Hernandez…
I wonder if last year’s Twins would have made it to game 163 if they had not signed Livan.
Although he eventually went really bad, Livan pitched well the first few weeks of the season and picked up seven or eight deserved pitching victories.
I think he took some of the load off the other starters. If there was a way to clone his early-season performance from last year, I think this year’s rotation could have used it.
You’re a couple of years too late for me to catch you at the Coliseum, Icon. I was out there for Slowey’s “premier” two years ago (I think?).
I’ll actually be up in the Twin Cities from the 11th through the 18th. Unfortunately, the Twins are only in town for the last 3 days of that trip.
bop: sorry, I’m actually doing some work right now, so my post was not as clear as I’d hoped.
One reason the payroll is low right now is that they don’t have very many good players (see the SP staff) that they needed to re-sign the last few years. They don’t bring the players up 2 good ones at a time. It’s kind of a myth. They tend to bring them up in bunches. If they brought players up on a consistent basis, they would have a few more players right now signed for that $5-10MM range. And, by their own admission, their minor league system is pretty devoid of impact players right now. That’s what I was trying to say.
As for signing FAs or trading for players in their prime, I think they should do that to fill an obvious hole. For example, earlier this decade, they had no 3B and no DH. They could have dealt for one of those (or signed a FA), and been a potentially great team. But, they refused to do that.
They refused to trade for a proven reliever at the deadline last year. They signed Ayala only after the good relievers were signed. They signed Crede only after he had no other options. I don’t see any evidence that their philosophy has changed at this point.
It’s not like the money they saved on Hunter and Santana has been reinvested in medium prices players or great players. It’s gone in their pockets. That’s cool, but I don’t want to hear any BS about the payroll as a percent of revenue. Just be honest.
Hernandez won 10 games, but I would only say that about 3 or 4 were “deserved.” That said, I guess Hernandez was a bad example for me to use. I was trying to make a joke, of sorts, but I admit it wasn’t very funny. Back to the drawing board.
One other thing that I remember: 2007 was Santana’s worst year as a Twins’ starter. I think that there was even talk at that point that his changeup had lost its edge and that he might not be as dominant over the next several years.
during the 2007 off-season I made the point that Santana has been declining. I still stand by that. The fact that he has been pitching in a pitchers park in NL and putting great numbers does not mean that he would have put the same numbers with the Twins. Here is part of the reason that I think that:
His numbers from 2005 on:
2005: 2.87 ERA, 0.971 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 5.29 K/BB
2006: 2.77 ERA, 0.997 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 5.21 K/BB
2007: 3.33 ERA, 1.148 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 4.52 K/BB
2008: 4.05 ERA, 1.350 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.20 K/BB (interleague play against AL to compare apples with apples)
his average fastball velocity:
2005: 92.4
2006: 93.1
2007: 91.7
2008: 91.2
2009: 91.1
On a completely unrelated note, whatever to BC Beneke or that Bison ND guy?
Because this myth that they won’t resign their “stars” started long before those two guys walked.”
wow Frankie V, G-man, Bruno,Knoblauch,Auggie are living myths then!!
Many of you have gone on record as saying you would have signed Santana no matter what the cost. let’s now be specific.
How many of you would have signed Santana for $27mil a year?
Are you a Minnesotan in exile, too, JimCrikket?
“How many of you would have signed Santana for $27mil a year?”
If I had an extra $27 million laying around, I might. Of course, I don’t have a major league baseball team. But I’d be sure to give him a slot on my coed rec league softball team.
How many years? What is my revenue projection in the new park?
Wow, 193 comments on a thread about Cuddyer.
I guess Punto bashing is passe….
No, we’re just not allowed to bash Punto.
Although he’ll continue to have games that leave fans scratching their heads, I think Cuddy has turned a corner. Speaking of corners, does anyone know when the Twins are honoring Koskie this weekend?
And in so doing, you severely discredited what stock we should put into OPS+.
Now I laugh. If I say “Michael Cuddyer weighs as much as Kirby Puckett,” does that discredit what stock I put into the Theory of Gravity?
OPS+ does not define a player’s value, but it is the closest statistical measure we have to defining offensive value. The point is, Cuddyer has high value right now in this season based on the best statistics we have. You can say you think he’ll regress. Or you can say he’s injury prone. Or you can say a lot of other stuff. But you can’t say that he’s not playing well right now. OPS+ proves that.
Punto-bashing is verboten.
Saturday
how about asking that question in a slightly different way?
Who would you rather have in 2011, 28 year old Joe Mauer or 32 year old Johan Santana? How about 2013: 30 year old Joe Mauer or 34 year old Johan Santana.
Take your pick, because both can’t happen…
I suppose picking on the obvious is rather trite.
Cuddyer bashing is much more interesting, because a pretty good case can be made either way.
well said Mike !!
WJ I said Twin’s should have signed Johan the year before when he would have signed for 18M before he could hold them hostage after 2007 season like he did.. see I believe Johan saw they were not willing to invest to keep MOST OF THEIR STARs and by keeping just a few and filling the roster with the LNP,Ayala of the world you have the current Twin’s mess
I can think of a couple of theories for why Cuddyer would have a similar OPS+ to Puckett:
First of all, for all his greatness, Puckett never had an overwhelming OBP. He could hit, but he was Delmon Young-esque in terms of drawing walks. That would draw down his OPS.
Thirdly, I think some people are comparing apples to oranges. If I remember correctly, 124 is Puckett’s career average OPS+, while 124 is Cuddyer’s career high total. It would be more informative to use Cuddyer’s career 107 OPS+ for comparison.
Second of all, if OPS+ is adjusted for park factor, that would help Cuddyer. Over the last couple of years, the Metrodome has had a very low park factor(favorable to pitchers), and I believe it was considered a more hitter-friendly park when Puckett was playing.
“I suppose picking on the obvious is rather trite.”
That’s what makes it so frustrating. It is obvious to most everyone excepting He who fills out the line-up card.
Wow, somehow my “thirdly” paragraph got switched around with my “second” paragraph. I swear I didn’t type it like that.
If they can’t afford an Ace, will it matter if they have Mauer? If Mauer’s power is real, then MAYBE Mauer can overcome the lack of having an ACE and carry the team through the playoffs. I’d not make that same argument about power free Mauer. As for 30 year old Mauer, what are the numbers for catchers that have caught that many games, when do catchers start to break down game-wise?
Don’t forget, Nathan’s contract is not super likely to be renewed, so there’s a whole bunch more money too.
How many years? What is my revenue projection in the new park?
Exactly. The question isn’t whether you’re willing to re-sign Santana, it’s how much you’re willing to pay.
It’s like the man that asked a woman if she’d sleep with him for a million dollars. “Sure”, she replied. Then he asked if she’d sleep with him for a hundred dollars. “What do you think I am”, she replied, “Some kind of whore?!”
“Well”, he answered, “We’ve already established that. Now we’re just haggling over the price.”.
I think Howard should find some way to twist the stats to write a blog about how Punto has been pretty solid and we shouldn’t blame him…
Then maybe he could have a blow-up game like Cuddyer yesterday.
“Now I laugh. If I say “Michael Cuddyer weighs as much as Kirby Puckett,” does that discredit what stock I put into the Theory of Gravity?”
It does if you use Gravity as a measure of how valuable a baseball player is.
thrylos - if the Twin’s truly want to be a legit WS contender at some point a “Johan and a Mauer” must be signed to multi-year deals
this trying to catch lighting in a bottle only worked for 1 regular season title and a first round playoff exit
I thought about that too, Eddie Shore.
Punto ripping (I don’t like “bashing”) will re-commence as soon as La Velle posts tonight’s lineup.
Romer -
Duly noted. Sorry about the non-use of paragraphs my friend. I was at work at the time and spent most of my time flicking back and forth with my cover page while I wrote that post. Lots of people walking by my cube today so I had to “stealth post”, if you know what I mean.
I don’t know how the Dome would have been more hitter-friendly to right-handed hitters in Puckett’s day than Cuddyers, considering there used to be plexiglass over the left field wall.
Unless it has something to do with the new turf.
Another factor that probably affected the Santana thing: that was the year after the Giants wasted a giant pile of money on another Cy Young winning lefthander: Barry Zito. While the Giants are used to shoveling money at aging players (see Barry Bonds), the Twins are not. And seeing how badly that big contract worked out might have highlighted how much of a risk it is to sign a premier player to a long-term deal.
“How many of you would have signed Santana for $27mil a year?”
Interesting topic, WJ.
If I owned the team, I’d establish fiscal guidelines and communicate them publicly:
1. 50% of revenu goes to player payroll, using a 5-year rolling average. Wiggle room would probably be about 10% annually by my estimate.
2. Assuming $200M annual revenue, one could pay your top 20 players roughly $10M per year if they all were fairly equal in value. I’d generally shoot for turnover such that 5 players would be league-minimum types.
3. No player salary would exceed 10% of revenue. Assuming $200M, even Mauer gets traded if his demands exceed $20M annually. My argument to him: find a way to live on $20M plus your outside earnings and help us field a dynastic team.
4. No restrictive trade clauses. No contract longer than five years.
Just food fot thought.
“I don’t know how the Dome would have been more hitter-friendly to right-handed hitters in Puckett’s day than Cuddyers”
I can’t look it up right now, since my employer blocks out Baseball Reference, but I think last year was an all time low for the Metrodome in terms of hitter-friendliness. Can anyone help me with a stat here? What was the park factor in, say, 1988?
It does if you use Gravity as a measure of how valuable a baseball player is.
OPS+ is to a theory of offensive value as gravity is to Newtonian physics or evolution is to biology. You act like it’s some out there statistic. It’s foundational.
Even if Mauer has a power surge in the coming years, do we really think this will last when he gets longer in the tooth? All his homeruns have virtually been to the opposite field. Does a player maintain that power to the opposite field as he gets older. Just a thought…
a stat that is used to show Magic Man is as good as Puckett was is a farce plain and simple..
I hope the lineups get poosted soon so we can move on
I think you missed my point, cmathewson. I wouldn’t argue the theory of gravity was incorrect just because Puck and Cuddy were the same weight (if that were the case). I would highly question gravity’s relevance to baseball greatness, though.
I’m not questioning the “science” behind OPS+, but I am questioning the conclusions one draws from it.
I’m with BOP on this one.
Posters who make a strenous argument that OPS isn’t significant until 500 PAs shouldn’t then turn around and argue that SPRING TRAINING OPS should be used as factual evidence the manager is a liar.
Charlie M, if Punto is in the lineup, it will be poo.
Icon, The Metrodome plays about the same now as it did when Puckett played here. He came after they installed air conditioning.
For the third time, I never said Cuddyer has the same value as Puckett. I only used the career OPS+ of Puckett as a baseline for what a really good player is. If a guy has an OPS+ equal to the career OPS+ of the best player in Twins history, he’s playing well.
So perhaps we can pick on someone else for a change, like Punto, who has an OPS+ of 40 (lower than his OPS+ in 2007–52) and is making over $4 million this year and guaranteed $8.5 million over two years.
Chief how about the “fact” the Gardy said in Fargo during Winter Caravan that his STARTING outfield would be Span,GOGO,Cuddy??
thrylos98 never said Gardenhire based his decision on who would start in the OF on ST OPS. He did say that Gardenhire said the three best players out of ST would start. thrylos98 used OPS numbers as HIS way of saying that Cuddyer was not one of the three best outfielders. Gardenhire obviously had his own criteria, which probably didn’t include OPS or any other numbers.
bop,
here are the revenue figures for the Twins up to 2008
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/33/baseball-values-09_Minnesota-Twins_330400.html
in 2008 they had $149 M revenue. It is hard to determine what the new stadium will bring, but the average new stadium since Cambden yards, realized an attendance boost of 758,308 fans. Let’s assume economy and all it’s 500K more. The average Twins’ fan spends $100 in the part. That is $50M more, so we are looking conservatively at a $200M revenue for 2010, which should be able to support a $100M payroll. If the Twins get about 750K more fans (the average increase for a new stadium its first year), then the payroll could be sustainable closer to $100-125M annually.
While it’s a baseball fans God-given right to complain - hitting .275 with some power really isn’t worthy of the venom so early in the year. Is it?
At the risk of kissing-up: I think your points are valid Howard - you back them up with facts vs. emotion. Hard to argue with that really.
General Powell once said - never let your position get so close to your ego, that once your position goes, your ego goes with it.
Those hatin’ on Cuddyer right now seem to have lost their position, but are clinging to their ego.
Sorry guys….that’s how I see it.
Again, the OPS+ does not really tell us that Cuddyer is as good as Puckett. The comparison says that Cuddyer’s career high OPS+ is equal to Puckett’s career average. Cuddyer’s career OPS of 107 does not equal Puckett’s career total, nor does it even come close to PUckett’s high of 152.
I see that cmatthewson basically said the same thing right before I said it.
thrylos98 used OPS numbers as HIS way of saying that Cuddyer was not one of the three best outfielders.
Span not Cuddyer. But any way you cut it. Using any way of measurement, it was not even close who the 3 best outfielders were in ST.
about this argument:
OPS isn’t significant until 500 PAs shouldn’t then turn around and argue that SPRING TRAINING OPS should be used
CONTEXT is important.
OPS is not statistically significant until 500 PA to project the performance of someone during a season.
the final ST OPS is extremely significant to project (actually describe) someone’s performance during spring training . And since that was the criterion (performance during ST) indicated that would be used, I’d argue that it’s fine…
And redmond’s OPS+ is 68, while Morales’ is higher than Cuddeyer’s….
I think the Cuddyer discussion has fizzled to the point that everyone is just repeating his/her self. And nobody’s mind is going to change, the way I see it.
So, does anyone want to discuss something else? For example: Kevin Slowey is 5-1, and his last few starts have been all right. How do you think he’ll do tonight against Milwaukee?
Puckett’s OPS+ was only 92 before he “lifted alot of weights” one winter.
Cuddyer will not be benched or traded this season. We will be arguing about his numbers until October.
I think Slowey is coming around, and will be the number 2 pitcher I keep thinking he’ll be. Unfortunately, I appear to be wrong about Baker being a 1/2, and Liriano being a 2/3.
Good call Iconoclast - the ego’s have dug in the heels.
If I was Bill Smith I would hand Joe Mauer a blank check right now and say fill it out. Just fill it out, man.
I think this is the most important off the field baseball situation in Twins history, kinda like the upcoming Lebron James situation in Cleveland. Both hometown boys with total admiration and respect in the fiber of the community and fans. Yes the contract will have alot of zeros and ultimately it is the players decision if they stay or not, but it should not be from lack of the organization from trying (hence the blank check).
The commitment from tax payers has been made with the building of the new park. Now the commitment must be made back to the fans and the community. The signing or non-signing of Joe Mauer will speak towards the Twins direction in the future louder than anything else. Not signing Joe Mauer will not only hurt the team but slap the collective face of the fan base thus losing image value beyond repair. In a business if your image is tarnished you are pretty much toast. This is a business.
Bill Smith - blank check that young man behind the plate right now (the one with the sideburns, not the noodle for a throwing arm).
Iconoclast: “Are you a Minnesotan in exile, too, JimCrikket?”
Sorta but not really. As a kid, I lived in Albert Lea during the 60s, but I’ve lived almost exclusively in Iowa ever since (save for very brief stints in Arkansas, Illinois and Wisconsin).
Joe will stay in Minny. He can’t go to NYY, the Steinbrenners won’t allow him to wear his side-burns that long.
(Don’t cite me Johnny Damon - that hair was just laziness….Mauer’s burns are a fashion statement.)
JimC, my cousins lived in Albert Lea in the 60’s. Know the Sixel clan?
1. A possible troll creates a false controversy re Cuddy.
2. An otherwise responsible blogger (Sinker) falls for it and puts it center stage.
RESULT:
The blog falls into personal-attack mode and/or esoteric hysteria.
LESSON?
Don’t sucker for false controversy.
Not just the Steinbrenners. Mr. Burns would definitely kick Mauer off his team for having sideburns. And then Mauer would overdose on nerve tonic.
JC, mike:
Know any Wegges?
Well put, surfdoctor.
As for tonight, a loss would be a major blow. As someone pointed out earlier, even after our 20-1 beat down, we’re still 7 games behind in the loss column. So even as it feels like we’re on a roll, we’re really not. We need a win.
Also, 10 of our next 13 games are at home before we officially end the home field advantage portion of our schedule (June 4). After June 4, the majority of our games for the rest of the year are on the road. Based on how the road as treated us up until now, I think it’s absolutely a must that we take advantage of the next 13 games.
5.5 games out of first.
7 games out in the loss column
First place Brewers
Near first place Red Sox
I’d say we have more pressing issues right now than Cuddyer’s OPS+
esoteric hysteria
I resemble that remark.
And thanks, JimCrikket, for taking a shot at the Mauer-batting-second thing.
It sure looked to me that the power part of the lineup had a sudden infusion of mental accuity and confidence when they didn’t have to sit and look at the automatic out in the 2-hole.
And Gardy even one-ups that by his noting that the bottom of the lineup was so productive……….namely, Tolbert. Getting him out of the #2 took the pressure off him, and look how he responded!
“I’d say we have more pressing issues right now than Cuddyer’s OPS+”
Agreed. Number one, in my opinion, is the status of the rotation.
WJ,
Except that he never played after he “lifted weights” one winter.
The offseason that he worked out extensively was his last, he went “blind” in ST that year and never played.
Gardy likes to play the hot hand, right? So he comes up with a line-up that scores 20 runs and what does he do? I was hoping he let it ride. What are the odds he puts Tolbert back in the 2 hole tonight?
Moral of the story, kids: don’t exercise or you will go blind.
I’d say we have more pressing issues right now than Cuddyer’s OPS+
My point exactly. Glad you agree with me.
SweetOne,
I was referring to the winter of ‘84-85 and Puckett’s explanation of how he went from 4 HRs in 1985 (161 games) to 31 HRs in 1986 (161 games).
I hope you know I meant “winter of ‘85-86″.
No Sixels or Wegges in my memory bank from the 60s in Albert Lea, guys. But then at my age, I have trouble remembering what I ate for lunch.
I’ll actually be surprised if Gardy doesn’t stick with Mauer at #2 tonight. I don’t expect it to be a long term thing, however. I’ve generally been one who likes that option, but it’s more because I just haven’t seen anyone who wasn’t almost an automatic out up there, rather than a belief that Mauer is a perfect #2 hitter.
I just get tired of seeing M&M come up with that automatic out their first time up every game.
Thanks Jason. I always respect your posts.
The value of signing Joe Mauer just can’t be overstated. All Bill Smith has to do is look around the Metrodome. Wouldn’t you say that the majority of the jersey wearing younger fans are sporting Mauer jerseys? The parents are more than happy to expose Mauer to their kids, cousins, nephews, nieces, etc. because he is an awesome player and squeaky clean. These kids and younger folks are future cash paying fans. Turning them off and their parents/uncles/aunts too? Complete and utter business suicide.
Sorry it’s just that important.
cmath, Punto needs a day off, can’t hit LH pitching. My lineup would have to be —
Span, Mauer, MVP..
4-Cuddy
5-Kubel
6-Crede
7-Harris
8-Tolbert
9-Gomez
Thry: OPS+ is as statistically significant as any of its constituent parts: OBP, SLG, park and league factors. People site OBP and SLG early in the season because it gives a good time slice of how a player is doing right now. OPS+ is no different. If we couldn’t use it for statistical reasons, we couldn’t use any statistic until the end of the year.
“OPS is not statistically significant until 500 PA to project the performance of someone during a season.”
so punto needs 500 pa to be properly evaluated?
Romer, looks good to me.
I would like to see Mauer and Morneau batting #3 and #4 with the two best OBP guys hitting in the first two spots. Outside of Mauer and Morneau themselves, and Morales who’s back in Rochester, the two players with the hights OBP are Span and Kubel (team 4th and 5th respectively; Cuddyer is 6th).
Man, I wish Morales could play 2B!
cmathewson,
agreed. OPS (and OPS+) could be used anytime to indicate how someone is performing up to that particular time.
on the other hand, see my 11:05, in the original premise of Howard’s post was used to judge Cuddyer’s performance over the whole season: “but I’ll make the argument that Cuddyer’s a solid player who has deserved his at-bats. That he’s making $6.75 million this season (or $7.67 million if you want to throw in one-third of his signing bonus) doesn’t bother me.”
and until 500 PA, OPS (and OPS+) is not a good indicator of projected performance for the whole season (see the 11:05 comment for links to the reason why)
so punto needs 500 pa to be properly evaluated?
of course not. One can evaluate his year to date performance but cannot assume that he will continue that way. His year to dare performance is never to early to be evaluated. However, one cannot evaluate his whole 2009 season (based on OPS) with what we know from 133 PA. Too early for that, but it is not early to say that Punto has been pretty awful so far.
“Romer, looks good to me.”
Here’s to hoping Gardy has some fun with his lineup…….or at least let’s his lineup have the fun.
We all agree with Gardy’s criteria about who classically should hit in the 2-hole. But there is no such animal on the Twins; that’s why all the prospective 2-hole candidates have wound up in the 7-8-9 spots.
Fait acompli, Manager Ron Gardenhire.
Thry: I don’t like the premise that OPS+ is indicative of a players value even after a season. But it’s as close as we can get with one number to judge a player’s offensive value. You would also want to compare the player to other players at his position (VORP) and his defensive value, and relative cost, etc. If you took a time slice with all those factors right now, Cuddyer’s well worth the cost. At the end of the year, we’ll know if we got the appropriate value for our dollar. But we know now that it will be pretty close either way–a heck of a lot closer than Batista, White, Sierra, Cirillo, Rincon, Lamb, Punto etc. In those cases, we know we didn’t get value for our dollar.
So I return to my point: There are a lot of more important things to worry about, especially since we are $17 million under budget even if we overpay for a player by a $1 million give or take a few thou.
How long are the Twins going to leave Casilla at Rochester? He’s hitting .353/.411/.471 since the demotion.
Is everyone getting their creative “why is Punto at short tonight” line ready for La Velle’s blog?
Benny W…Joe C’s note in the paper today said he hasn’t been looking as good in Rochester in recent days…although Gardy did specifically mention his desire for Casilla to return, which I thought was bold.
That is bold given his preference for Tolbert.
Check out the lineup on LEN III’s blog.
Joe C’s note in the paper today said he hasn’t been looking as good in Rochester in recent days
here is what Casilla did in his last game:
3 for 5, 1 run, 1 triple, 1 BB, 2 RBI
I don’t know what the guy needs to do to look any better. Have a Mauer day?
romer: Looks close:
1. Denard Span, LF
2. Joe Mauer, C
3. Justin Morneau, 1B
4. Jason Kubel, DH
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF
6. Joe Crede, 3B
7. Brendan Harris, SS
8. Carlos Gomez, CF
9. Matt Tolbert, 2B
Howard,
You must feel even worse about your blog after Cuddy’s first two at bats tonight. This guy is overpaid (not) and killing this team (not unless he pitches).
Stop using numbers that get in the way of the greater point, Cudddy must go! And Mauer should never hit 2nd again.
Howard, I have no choice but to make a rare 220 primetime post…
I apologize, Michael Cuddyer. I never should have doubted you. I know a lot of fans never did.
Howard, you absolutely hit two bullseyes with your Thurs. and Fri. posts and I’ll be more than happy to play the role of goat. I was completely wrong. I feel like going out and buying an authentic Cuddyer jersey.
On behalf of 220 nation, I beg for forgiveness.
Seriously, though, Howard, please tell us that even as you wrote on Thurs. and Fri., you had no idea this would ensue, right?
Unbelieveable. Way to go, Cuddyer. He legitimately should get some All-Star consideration at this point!
Jason,
I think we should stick with “Cuddyer has yet to prove anything and needs to get going.”
I figure Cuddyer reads this blog and we’re the motivating factor behind his resurgence.
So, Cuddyer, nice game, but, so what? Means nothing. Eh, so, you hit for the cycle? Well, how come it was only a three run home run, rather than an upper deck grand slam like Kubels?
I’m really glad for Cuddyer and hopefully this night is the turning point for expectations for him.
thrylos98 says:
May 22nd, 2009 at 11:35 am
birdofprey,
do you have ever have anything of substance to add? If you disagree with what I say, argue with logical arguments, and make your point, instead of resorting to elementary school recess level… it’s a bit sophomoric…
am I the only person who imagines Thrylos’ comments with the voice of the comic book guy on the Simpsons?
Bring it back to reality, Thry, You take his current BA, OBP, HR, extra base hits, and RBI. Compare those with corner outfielders this year. He is legit.
I LOVE Jim Crikket’s 2:14 comment. Perfect.
Makes me remember losing Ortiz, Koskie and Jones. Makes me glad we’ve signed Morneau, Mauer, Nathan, Baker and (yes) Cuddyer!
Makes me glad I’m a Twin’s fan, not a Yankee.
thrylos98 says:
CONTEXT is important.
OPS is not statistically significant until 500 PA to project the performance of someone during a season.
the final ST OPS is extremely significant to project (actually describe) someone’s performance during spring training . And since that was the criterion (performance during ST) indicated that would be used, I’d argue that it’s fine…
OPS (and OPS+) could be used anytime to indicate how someone is performing up to that particular time.
until 500 PA, OPS (and OPS+) is not a good indicator of projected performance for the whole season
Dear Thrylos,
being as we are about 1/4th of the way into the season, what statistic would you say it is fair to use to judge Cuddyer’s production for the entire season? Until 500 PA, no statistic is a valid indicator of performance over an entire season. His contact percentages and all that other stuff you brought up are just as subject to change as his OPS+ is. Can’t you just admit that he’s putting up good numbers? He’s proving your assertions false …so far.
Extraneous thoughts:
I like Eddie’s idea - “bashing average”…
I miss Batgirl too. Terribly.
Cuddy isn’t the anchor. 7th & 8th inning has been the anchor - that and a generally struggling rotation (lots of inconsistency there).
Cuddy’s contract isn’t going to stand between us & resigning Mauer, so it’s kinda silly to suggest (if anyone’s doing that) that it will.
I hear a lot of people moan about Cuddyer, and thought the other day’s piece was funny, especially now in light of his cycle and recent performance. I understand the anti-Cuddyers because I used to be one, back in 2004-05. But after he had his good year I stopped. He is not perfect, but he hits for power and plays pretty good D, and has a great arm for right field. All in all, we could do a lot worse than Cuddy, and so I stopped being down on him back then and have not jumped back aboard the anti bus. Punto is another player who gets a bad rap, most times deservedly so, but he also has many good points. I will never forget when we first got him how we were playing well, winning a lot of games, and Punto was a real spark for that. Mid-season he gets hurt playing D and goes out, the next thing you know the Twins are sinking fast. That taught me that Punto can be a valuable player. Gardy’s comment about Cuddy always running out plays is telling. Not everyone always runs the ball out going to first anymore. Casilla was very bad at it. I guess because Cuddy does something everyone should do, but do not, it makes him look relatively better. I know if I were making $500k/yr+ I would be running everywhere I went on the field–to my position, back to the dugout, to first on a hit ball, etc. And I’d be doing it all with a big sh1t-eating grin on my face the entire time.
I can’t believe how much time people waste trying to make thier points on this site. I just go to the games, support my team, and have a great time. I don’t have a second job that consists of trying to convince others why a player is or isn’t good.
Deb: hate to break it to you, but you wasted at least two minutes posting that last comment. Welcome to the club.
