Guest post from New England: Joe Mauer and batting .400
Posted on June 5th, 2009 – 9:54 AMBy Howard
(Section 220 reader John Morrison lives closer to Fenway Park than most of us — about 25 miles west — and decided to has looked at Joe Mauer’s amazing start, with an eye toward what it would take for him to bat .400. That hasn’t happened since Ted Williams of the Red Sox did it in 1941. It’s way too early to get too caught up in the idea, but watching Mauer so far this season, a person can’t help but wonder what it’ll be like if he’s teasing .400 in a couple of months. Here are Mr. Morrison’s thoughts on the subject:)
Since Teddy Ballgame’s historic .406 season in 1941, 25 players have taken a .400 average past May while qualifying for a batting title. Among those 25, only two had an average as high as Big Joe’s current .436 after May — Stan Musial in 1958 and Rod Carew in 1983; both peaked at .437 before falling off to .337 and .339.
Joe Mauer is certainly putting himself in rarified air, Ted Williams post-May high water mark was .431 on June 7, 1941.
So can he do it? To qualify for the batting title, Joe needs 502 plate appearances. Based on his rate of 15% fewer at-bats than plate appearances, Joe could qualify at 430 ABs on the season — and would need to hit .388 over the next 320 ABs to be at .400.
Despite the grind of catching, I believe he can! Heck, Joe can “cool off” by 4.8 hits per 100 ABs the rest of the way and still be the first hitter since Williams to qualify for the batting title with a .400 average. (The closest was George Brett in 1980, who took a .400 average into the Royals 150th game, 27 PAs short of the 502 PAs needed to qualify.)
While it would be an unbelievable feat, the media crush alone could take a toll. Still, we just may find Joe chasing hitting’s holy grail during the season’s final weeks. Wouldn’t that be an unbelievable way to close out the Metrodome?
I can hear the packed houses now. Are there records for curtain calls??
(Just heard Bill Smith being interviewed on XM-Sirius and he said that he sees the Mauer contract situation being more like that of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan than a certain left-hander who now wears No. 57 for the Mets. Smith said: “I think Joe Mauer wants to stay here — and if he wants to stay here, there’s going to be plenty of opportunity to get a deal done.” I hope he’s right.)
(After the interview, XM-Sirius host Seth Everett said that by asking Smith about signing Mauer, “I hope we were doing not only a service to Twins fans, but to the fans who think [their teams] have a shot at him.” I hope he’s right too.)
Enjoy the weekend.


