Sticking with my 3 out of 4 story
Posted on June 11th, 2009 – 9:18 AMBy Howard
At the beginning of the series, I said that I expected the Twins to take 3 out of 4 — that they should take 3 of 4 from Oakland. I would like very much for Nick Blackburn and the offense to prove me correct this afternoon. You can spin the A’s anyway you want, but the bottom of their batting order during this series should give anyone the cringes (even compared to what the Twins have used at times), and they should feel pretty fortunate for the 60 games of good pitching that their young staff has put together. If their pitching falters, it’s going to be a long summer at the ballpark of empty seats. Where would Jack Cust, their .231 batting No. 3 hitter, bat in the Twins’ order?
In fact, the distressing thing about last night’s victory was the difficulty Francisco Liriano had with the bottom of the Oakland order, which is what turned a potentially dominating performance into a pretty good one.
But one of the good takeaways from the game was the bullpen’s collective three innings of one-hit relief, with the blemish being the meaningless two-out double by Jason Giambi. (Rajai Davis wasn’t going to come close to Joe Nathan in that ninth-inning at-bat.)
Another thing that stood out: We’re really not in the habit of crediting opponents because we expect the Twins to prevail under any circumstance, but I was really impressed with Dallas Braden, the Oakland starter. He seemed to have the Twins figured out — and used what he learned the first time through the order to his advantage for the rest of the night. I wonder if Liriano noticed that and asked him out for coffee after the game. I would also have loved to listen to Brendan Harris’ internal soundtrack as Braden put him through three hellish at-bats, which had something to do with the glee Harris showed when he finally whacked that RBI single in the ninth.
Consecutive road victories, even three of them if things go as they should today, don’t undo the areas in which the Twins need to improve for the final 100 games. For now, Gardy has to solve his second-base dilemma – Tolbert or Casilla or that Punto fella. The choice will be made among three guys who are barely hitting their weight: Combined weight 555, combined batting average .558. (How’s that for heavy statistical analysis?) It does seem like Casilla has managed to play his way back to Rochester
again, which wouldn’t have been expected when he was recalled after Punto went DL.
Down the road are all the other things we’ve been talking about.
One other number you may want to ponder: Joe Crede’s last 30 home runs have come against right-handed pitching — including nine this season, all 17 in 2008 and the four that he hit during his very brief 2007 season. His slugging percentage is .514 against right-handers this season and .346 against lefties. Last year, it was .561/.146. Just one more thing to ponder before game time.
Enjoy the day.
50 Responses to "Sticking with my 3 out of 4 story"
lol nice hindsight 20/20 glasses Howard
what would you have said if the Twin’s hadn’t comeback last night?
HEADLINE: Twin’s will split with A’s it’s OK
???
I really thought Gomez had some nice at-bats while in the leadoff spot last night. I don’t think he got one hit, but he worked the count and laid off some pitches that I thought for sure he flail at.
If Gardy insists on batting Mauer 3rd again and having a black hole in the #2 spot Twin’s can’t survive with GOGO trying to find himself in the lead off spot..
Mauer should be in the #2 spot GOGO thrives much better at the bottom and especially if LNP is back in the lineup performing his own black hole where ever he bats
honestly Twin’s have alot of sure outs in the lineup now Magic Man,LNP, GOGO alot of the time
I’m happy that we have Crede since I think he can get the go ahead run or get a hit when we need it more often than any other 3rd baseman we’ve had since Koskie. DY was good at the bat & a little scary in left field but he’s been making the plays and lucky for us our outfield wasn’t tested too much after GoGo was removed for Kubel. Get well Denard - we need you at leadoff but let’s go Blackburn and pitch well today and maybe our hitters can tee off on the right handed Cahill.
I can’t believe Crede is like that against LHP. I guess it was just a myth the Twins needed a RH bat to play 3rd. They really need a RH bat to play 3rd that beats up LH pitching.
No compaints here about Crede though. The gold glove like defense has been worth the price, and the HR’s and extra base hits have been fairly steady. He’s just what I thought he’d be.
If his splits are like that though, he is not the answer to the guy to hit between Morneau and Kubel. Cuddyer really should be in that spot, seemingly by default.
I am going to go off the beaten path for a moment and just re-recognize the appreciation I have for Joe Nathan. I just can’t help but admire how much confidence I have in this guy and how clutch he is, and has been. He has so many deposits in his “trust account” with me it is ridiculous. Home/away, losing streak/winning streak it doesn’t matter. He is there at the end to seek and destroy.
With much verbal and written bouquets going towards Mauer and Morneau (and rightfully so) I just have to take pause and recognize Mr. Nathan and thank him for the restful feeling I get when he takes the mound. Is his value so much more this year because the bridge to him is so much less? Perhaps.
As funny as it sounds sometimes I just can’t believe my favorite Twin the past handful of years (and especially this year) has been……a relief pitcher?????
No, FVG. The headline could well have been. “If Twins win today, it’ll be a hollow split.” No way they should split this series. Thanks for asking, I guess.
fcm: It’s a weird split. Before those years, his numbers were pretty traditional in terms of a lefty/righty split. I want to think he’ll get closer to that form as time goes on. On where he should be in the batting order, I wonder if he’ll see better pitches against lefties batting fifth with Cuddyer and Harris behind him, even though the numbers would seem to call for Cuddyer-Crede-Harris (or even Cuddyer-Harris-Crede). And given that the most at-bats will come against right-handers, I don’t see it as a huge issue as much as an interesting one.
early lineups for todays game:
tolbert 2b
harris ss
mauer c
morneau 1b
kubel rf
crede dh
buscher 3b
young lf
gomez cf
Derek McCallum will start at second base next homestand.
Perhaps we can do like they do with 13th floors in buildings…they simply don’t exist. You go from 12 to 14.
I will send Gardy an email recommending the same thing. Put Mauer in the 3 hole but from now on there is no 2 spot in the lineup. We go from 1 to 3 and that’s it.
We could also consider the Norman Dale approach: “Coach you need another player, there’s only four” “My team’s on the court”
One does wonder if pitchers would be a little more careful if Mauer was batting behind Gomez.
Also, this insistence on putting more at bats in the hands of .185 hitters just because defies logic. It’s like if I took my best sales person and said “no I don’t want Raoul who has a 98% close ratio calling on WalMart. Jacob is only closing 40% but it’s his turn”
Curious.
but Howard Twin’s have traditionally gone to the Left Coast to die away softly.. I can’t believe that the A’s are so bad nowadays combined with the mlb worst road record Twin’s HAD that we all didn’t think a split would be a plus.. glad you thought much higher of our lads.. they are starting to prove to me that their road slump is lifting and if that’s the case brighter days are indeed ahead
surfdoctor, you’re absolutely right about Nathan. Perfect summary. I’ve always said, with Nathan and M & M, you’ve got 3 potential Hall of Famers to build a team that can make a WS run. Too bad FO has completely blown it. Now, I’m “Sticking with my New Attitude” with the Twins. Starting last night, I relaxed during the game, knowing this team is going no where and just watched the game. No expectations, no anxiety, no mental anguish, no headaches. I woke up this morning feeling like a million bucks. The Twins FO acts like they don’t care, so why should I? I don’t need more stress and now I can go back to focusing more on the important things in my life. Highly recommended for all Twins fans.
markoutstate: you are the definition of a “bandwagon fan”. only gonna root for the home team when they are winning, but if they are struggling you will just let them die. you are a weak fan, as are many. wish minnesota had more true fans….
I don’t think Howard is a true fan…he doesn’t even blog about the Twins during the weekend.
Brendan Harris is not comfortable batting #2. He is a good ML hitter who is a legitimate #6 or #7 batter. In the Twins lineup, he is a #7 guy. He is not the same at the plate when he bats #2. Did you see him show bunt on a couple of pitches in his first couple of AB yesterday? He never bunts. That is Gardy and Vavra preaching that says the #2 batter must be able to bunt and move runners around. Harris is a line drive hitter. Let him do what is natural to him. We have plenty of Casilla’s/Tolbert’s on the roster who can bunt if we need to.
I’ve always said, with Nathan and M & M, you’ve got 3 potential Hall of Famers
Too early to make the call on M&M but Nathan is not a hall of famer.
Which raises the question: why haven’t they bunted more? Perhaps they aren’t good bunters? I don’t follow other teams that closely but it seems from anecdotal observation on my part that we pop up bunts and misplace bunts a lot more than in the old days. Seems like everyone wants to bunt to get on base instead of staying calm in the box and executing a good sac bunt.
Adam S. nice try at baiting..
casilla and tolbert cannot bunt. that is what is frustrating. they are the type of player who should be able to bunt (fast) but cannot.
Perhaps they aren’t good bunters?
last season Gomez had a BA in the .400s when bunting (which is pretty good.) I think that other teams have figured them out and throw them junk when they square to bunt. Hard to bunt on sliders low and away
” Seems like everyone wants to bunt to get on base instead of staying calm in the box and executing a good sac bunt”
good call Fredo it would appear Twin players don’t give themselves up by laying down a good sac bunt they only bunt to try to get a base hit
Why is it even a news story that LNP is coming off the DL. Who cares? I know the only one counting down the day is LNP and Gardy. Other than that, no one cares
Now we built in excuse when he continues to tank….Just isn’t seeing the ball
who cares!!!!!!!!!!!!!
casilla and tolbert cannot bunt. that is what is frustrating. they are the type of player who should be able to bunt (fast) but cannot.
BA on bunts (2008) AB in ()
Gomez .429 (70)
Casilla .640 (25)
Punto .600 (10)
Span .300 (10)
Tolbert .750 (4)
Casilla was not too shabby last season, either…
I bet we lead the league in foul bunts.
Tolbert at .750. Thats impressive. If he could continue to show some line drive power, he might actually fit that 2 spot. Gardy would go nuts trying to pick between two scrapers to play 2B!
Of course, he’d not make the decision, and sit HArris instead
I bet we also lead the league in sniffed bats.
I bet we also lead the league in head first dives into first base.
I bet we also lead the league in games where we are “grinding it out” and “battling our tails off”
I bet we lead the league in getting run support for our pitchers only for them to negate that run support by either letting the opponent tie and/or take the lead the very next inning when we are in the field.
I bet we lead the league in blog comments during a 24 hour period
True…to piggyback off your idea…
I bet we lead the league in bloggers submitting their own proposed lineups during their post.
I bet we also lead the league in comments regarding “I bet we lead the league”…
Thrylos,
Are you looking into all these stats/categories…this may be a historic year for us…
Fire, you forgot one word in your comment about blog comments…. and that word is the adjective “meaningless”.
DrDon you mean us talking out of the place you formerly worked on?
Not all, Fire, just some, and we lead the league in those. Thankfully, most are good comments, others???? Well, you hit it right on the button. 
“Where would Jack Cust, their .231 batting No. 3 hitter, bat in the Twins’ order?”
Just going off of this year’s numbers, he’d probably hit 6th.
“Where would Jack Cust, their .231 batting No. 3 hitter, bat in the Twins’ order?”
I know his average is much too high to bat No. 2 in our order…
Where’s Jason today?
I bet we lead the league in former players going on to win the World Series.
surf…I heard through the grapevine that Jason went to take a poop and the hogs ate him.
Isn’t .231 better than like half of our starting line-up on a given day (Gomez, Young, Punto, Tolbert, Buscher)?
Oh OK. Thanks DrDon. You must have heard that report on ESPN.
Yes I did, surf. In fact, if memory serves me correctly, it came from the wise sage ESPN announcer Joe Morgan.
t98,
“last season Gomez had a BA in the .400s when bunting (which is pretty good.) I think that other teams have figured them out and throw them junk when they square to bunt. Hard to bunt on sliders low and away”
Not sure, but I don’t think pitchers can change the pitch type in the middle of the windup. At least I can’t. But then I’ve never tryed. I do know that if some pitchers see a bunt stance they will redirect and throw up and in. To get the batter off balance a bit.
thrylos;
How about posting 09’s bunting BA for the same group? My guess that it is going to look quite different.
Anyone have any ideas why?
chinmusic,
My guess is it’s a shortage of confidence. I know that baseball at a high level is just about all mental. Recent successes and recent failures (including those of your teamates) have a tendency to influence current outlook. Fans see this as “slumps” and “hot streaks”. Repetition in practice, building successes in mechanics, should help if the tools are there. And I think t98’s stats showed that the tools are there.
“I think that other teams have figured them out and throw them junk when they square to bunt. Hard to bunt on sliders low and away”
That’s a great last-second adjustment to fool the bunter………….and the catcher!
If the catcher is supposed to auto-out of the fastball on show-bunt, I’ll bet he is praying that the pitcher is on the same page, and doesn’t hit him in the wrist with a surprise fastball or slider.
It also makes fake-bunt with a 3-1 count or a 3-0 count a hell of a tactic.
Or do they NOT auto-out of a fastball when a fastball is absolutely demanded by the count.
NOW, that system is getting a little difficult for the catcher to coordinate with the pitcher.
I don’t think pitchers can change the pitch type in the middle of the windup.
sure they can… add another finger on the ball to slow it down
Twins should do a reality mini-series and use an actual game to see who stays up with the big club between: Buscher, Tolbert and Casilla…the best performance during that game would determine the winner. Punto would be included but we already know his fate.
“”add another finger on the ball to slow it down”".
I love it when you talk dirty to us, thry!!!!!!
Safe to say Howard might have jinxed us a little. Thanks Howard. Maybe you should predict more losses.
