The bullpen, the offense and you
Posted on July 1st, 2009 – 11:22 AMBy Howard
First of all, Section 220 is on a lighter blogging scheduled for the next week-and-a-half for an assortment of reasons (all of them good things). That means I’m in the market for a couple of guest posts. If you’d like to submit one, you can email it here. A few suggestions: 400-500 words works best, make it something that has some shelf life; you can be funny and/or earnest; be yourself, and include a sentence about yourself that’s suitable for an “editor’s note.”
*I’m not ready to annoint Bobby Keppel as this year’s Breslow (right-handed version), but his hold ‘em performances so far have been encouraging. The good thing about the Twins’ offensive struggle Tuesday night was that he was brought into a one-run game and kept the lead in a full turn through the Kansas City batting order. He seems to be centered pretty well. I heard him interviewed Sunday after his debut in St. Louis and while accolades were being sent his way, it was Keppel himself who pointed out that the outing was well and good, but it was only one game. Keppel is easy to root for.
*I’m concerned that the basket on Jose Mijares has become only half-full. We were hoping the Twins had found a lefty who could work an inning regardless of whether the opponents were hitting from the left or right. Unfortunately, his numbers against right-handed batters have devolved to .353/.421/.529 and he’s pretty much headed for a Dennys Reyes type of role. (His numbers against lefties are .083/.214/.167 — which includes 3 for 36 with 6 walks.) Walking 12 of the 101 batters he’s faced is an ugly stat as well, Kevin Slowey, by comparison, has walked 18 of 379.
*Can anyone who juggles numbers more than I do tell me why we’ve figured out the value of on-base percentage in talking about hitters, but we never hear that number in regard to pitchers? It’s always “batting average against,” and that seems like just as flawed a measure. With Mijares, for example, the difference in those numbers is between .241 and .340.
*This is not intended as a knock on Jason Kubel, who is justifying the faith shown in him. But I’m thinking it’s time for Gardy to consider flipping Cuddyer and Kubel in the batting order. Mauer and Morneau are fine regardless of who’s pitching against them (left or right) — and I’m thinking that a right-handed bat in the five spot would get those pitchers out of the lineup one batter sooner in later-game situations. Mauer is .351/.430 against lefties, Morneau is .359/.385, Kubel is .185/.254. My theory gets Kubel better pitches to hit against a righty or a No. 2 lefty; Cuddyer is pretty much stats neutral, but has more power against lefties.
*It’s time to stop worrying about Brendan Harris’ defense. He’s never going to be an elite defensive shortstop, but he’s making more plays that I expected and he seems to be improving with more time spent at the position. In fact, when revised zone rating is used as the measure, Harris’ is .817 in 342 innings and Nick Punto’s is .785 in 348. Harris’ number puts him in the middle of the pack among AL shortstops with guys like Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox (who was moved from second to short to improve their defense), Marco Scutaro of Toronto and Erick Aybar of the Angels. Jason Bartlett’s RZR is .784, in case anyone asks.
*The Twins need a second baseman to get them through the rest of the season and this guy has played enough second base over the year to make me wonder if he could provide a half-year fix. His team is 17 1/2 games out of first place and I have to think the asking price would be next to nothing. Bring him back to Minnesota!
*That’s all for now. Day game today. Get out the radio.
54 Responses to "The bullpen, the offense and you"
Augie Ojeda?
No.
Mark Grudzielanek?
Yes!
Is Punto out? If not, Augie isn’t too much of an improvement. Like trading in your Plymouth Volare for a Dodge Aspen.
A classic radio game today…should be fun.
I’m sorry to hear that 220 will not have its usual blogging schedule for the next week and a half…although I suspect a lot of us will be ditching our computers in favor of our families during the upcoming holiday weekend. I look forward to reading the guest bloggers…it’s great of Howard to give us the forum.
A quick observation from last night under the category of ‘different managing styles’: yesterday, 220 spent a lot of time dissecting Gardy’s ejection on Monday. Last night the Royals were clearly slighted on a strikeout call in the ninth inning. Instead of blowing his top in a close game where he trailed by a run, Trey Hillman calmly went out to get Jose Guillen and went back to the dugout. From Hillman’s vantage point, it should’ve been obvious the ball short-hopped Mauer’s glove, still, Hillman thought it best to let it go. I was impressed.
Howard is right about the need for a second baseman, of course. I’m not sure the Twins would consider Auggie Ojeda, however, for the simple fact that in doing so they would be admitting a mistake. At this point, I’d take anyone. Why they won’t bring someone in, make Punto the utility guy, demote Tolbert, and replace Buscher with a veteran righty who has pop in the bat, is beyond me.
I guess that’s why we have 220…
And as long as Howard is suggesting bringing in Auggie Ojeda to replace Punto, might I also suggest brining back Lew Ford as that veteran right-handed bat to replace Buscher.
Ford was 2-for-4 with 2 doubles for Long Island (Atlantic League) last night, improving his average to .286 on the season. Ford has 3 homers and 18 doubles (team leading) for the Ducks.
Of course I’m only being half-serious with this suggestion…
Howard,
So you want to replace a guy who’s hitting .214/.306/.240 with a guy that’s at .234/.321/.314. Wow. That should really help the Twins get to the playoffs. Great suggestion.
“At this point, I’d take anyone.”
An utterly predictable comment, jason.
But I’m with you, for no other reason than to rid the blogs of your obsessive, never-ending, painful whining about Punto, Tolbert, and Buscher. Let’s do a 2-for-1, and bring in Luis Rodriguez. Anyone. Doesn’t need to be better. Just different. Anyone. Please. Anyone. So we can stop feeling like we’re sitting between two 400 pound sumo wrestlers holding wailing babies on a transatlantic flight. Anyone.
ES16:
What’s that? Ah — Playoffs? Don’t talk about — playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs?
Augie Ojeda? Explain how he’s better than Nick Punto, because I’m not seeing it. Except for the possibility that Gardy will call him “Augie Doggie”.
If the Twins bring in anybody to fix 2nd, I’d rather it be somebody that has potential if they decide they want to stick around more than just this year.
And while I love what Crede has brought to the table, I still have concerns that are stopping me from being all gungho about bringing him back next year.
Because I just have the gut feeling that he’s a misplay or wrong step away from a lengthy DL stint.
might I also suggest brining back Lew Ford as that veteran right-handed bat to replace Buscher.
So let’s dump Punto for Ojeda. Then get rid of Tolbert. And then dump Buscher and bring in Ford.
That way when Crede needs a day off we can put…uh…um…Cuddyer?
No wait. You hate him too.
Anything short of Freddy Sanchez is a waste of time.
If you go to Baseball-Reference, they have OPS against alongside other numbers.
Mijares should just be a lefty specialist. I don’t know why we gave up on Breslow so soon.
On Ojeda — I’m not looking for a solution as much as a spark (and maybe I’m getting a little bit of bad at-bat fatigue from watching Punto). Part of my point is that upgrades at this time of year ain’t easy.
On Grudzielanek — 39 years old, blew out his foot late last year and not playing for anyone. Bret Boone would be better, and that’s not a suggestion.
Some of you sound like you are perfectly happy with Punto, Tolbert and Buscher.
I’m not saying there is anyone out there that is both a reasonable improvement over what we have and that the Twins actually would have a chance of signing. But I certainly don’t see how you wouldn’t want to explore the possiblities.
“Anything short of Freddy Sanchez is a waste of time.”
Couldn’t agree more, cmath. A marginal upgrade only gives us a slim chance at the playoffs and no chance to advance. Sanchez, as a bona fide upgrade, gives us a decent chance at the playoffs and a slim chance to advance.
Give Tolleson a shot before you make a sideways move like trading a box of forks for Ojeda.
Can anyone who juggles numbers more than I do tell me why we’ve figured out the value of on-base percentage in talking about hitters, but we never hear that number in regard to pitchers?
OBP is to hitters what WHIP is to pitchers. If you look at Mijares’ WHIP, it is 1.435 and only a hair better than Henn’s. ERA is not a good measure of pitching performance. ERA is to pitchers what Runs scored is to hitters
bop,
see my 11:53 a.m. comment
As to the numbers, I think that WHIP is more or less the OBS for pitchers and is the more important stat (than OBA).
I have to say I’m in the “don’t bother trading if it’s not a significant upgrade” camp. If you want to give Tolleson an audition, fine. But if you’re going to make a deal, make it an impact deal.
I realize that means we continue to listen to “Punto sucks” ad nauseum, but I can always just bypass the comment sections when that gets too monotonous.
Get serious about improving the team or just don’t bother with even looking at trades for mediocre talent.
Tolleson at 2B is the equivalent of Keppel at RP. It might work, but it’s a shot in the dark.
WJ: I am perfectly fine with exploring options, but I don’t consider former Twins castoffs such as Ojeda, Ford, or Dougie to be options.
But when I here “well he can’t be any worse” as somebody’s argument, it’s pretty obvious that it’s just throwing names at a wall moreso than it is offering solid advice.
I’m not particularly in 100% agreement with Walter Johnson at 11:33. A “Punto” is a compact economy car made by Fiat and the trade would be for some kind of race car.
Augies Grand American Race Car:
http://www.sweetmfg.biz/whos_winning3.asp?news_id=255
Howard, you must be lobbying for an early exit or an out pouring of guest bloggers with your suggestion that Ojeda is an upgrade at 2nd base.
Have you already started your holiday weekend celebrations? Seems to be the only logical explanation.
bop,
What about the thought of getting Roberts from the Orioles? They aren’t going anywhere this year and even though he has a good contract, I think the FO should spend some money and get us someone better than Punto or Luis Rivas or someone like that. Wonder how the Red Sox are feeling after getting beat 11-10 after having a huge lead? Maybe they would help facilitate a deal to get Roberts out of Baltimore
Cat: From the sounds of things, the Twins have taken shots at Roberts in the past (as recently as last year when Casilla went down with an injury), and the O’s have been very steadfast in holding on to him.
Could be worth checking into again…but it’s not like the O’s are any better or worse than last year. And I think the Twins have even less to offer this year.
T
The thing of it is though is that the O’s are so far out of it that they could be sellers. Andy McPhail is the GM and while he’s no fool, he has to know that there’s a market out there for Roberts and maybe they could dump some salary if they have a prospect coming up. That being said, I don’t look for the deal to happen but I sure would like to see it work out - we could use his bat and glove.
Good God, Howard. I rarely disagree with you and I’ve called you the voice of reason, but suggesting Augie Ojeda as an answer at 2B is totally unreasonable and downright irresponsible! He’d be an upgrade from Punto or Casilla? Wow. Just wow.
Good God, Howard. I rarely disagree with you and I’ve called you the voice of reason, but suggesting Augie Ojeda as an answer at 2B is totally unreasonable and downright irresponsible! He’d be an upgrade from Punto or Casilla? Wow. Just wow. He could be had for next to nothing because he’s worth next to nothing.
Roberts isn’t going anywhere. The guy signed an extension in February that is going to pay him $40 million over the next 4 years, starting in 2010.
JC, WJ,
So, what’s it going to take to get to the…Playoffs? Hardy, Sanchez, and Street? Two of those types? Is it reasonable to anticipate moves to bring in outside help? Not really, based on past history, right? My view is they need the 8th inning guy and a stable two-hole guy who plays a decent SS or SS, just to have a fighting chance at the….Playoffs? I don’t see it in the cards, because the options are limited and the costs will be regarded by the Twins as prohibitive. (That’s a different discussion, in a way).
With so few “sellers” declared to-date, what would be the harm of setting up shop as a “seller”, dangling all the commodity players out there (including Cuddyer and Young) and seeing if something sticks to the wall? Maybe someone goes gaga over Harris, for example, and forks over a blue-chip prospect or two. I’m not saying you concede the season, but I’m saying you risk taking your chances with what you have in-house, knowing there is a surplus of basically interchangeable parts in the infield, outfield, and bullpen. And maybe you get lucky and find that bona fide immediate upgrade while you’re sitting at the seller’s table. Just a thought.
Good job Shaun.
T: I agree 100%. No use even bringng a name like Lew Ford into the conversation barring some type of emergency.
I also agree that you should go with an impact player at 2B or nobody. Second base seems to be the one place on a team where you can carry someone like Punto without it hurting too much. Problem is we have two players like that in Punto and Tolbert. Are we expecting Tolbert to develop into something more? How about Buscher? Is he any better than who we have down in Rochester?
bop, I’m just not in favor of “selling” when there’s still a reasonable shot at the division. We had that discussion a couple of days ago and I won’t repeat everything, but you just never know what could happen “next year”, so when you have a shot “this year”, you take it. Keep in mind, too, that any of the “commodities” you’d dangle out there to sell would have to be replaced by next year. I really don’t think this team is all that far from being a serious contender so I wouldn’t rush to give up productive players at this point. It just makes finding replacements for them while also filling existing weaknesses more difficult in the offseason.
As for what it would take to get to the playoffs, I don’t think it’s all that much. All they have to do is beat the Tigers and BitchSox. Those teams have as many (if not more) holes to fill. The division will go to the team that upgrades the most effectively (and avoids major injuries).
There are few sellers right now. But as mid July comes around, there will be more. There will be deals available. I just wish I felt more confident that the Twins would act out of character and make one or two of them.
Since we’re talking about former Twins, anybody see Santana’s blow up against the Brewers yesterday?
I think the spotlight’s starting to get to him.
Augie Ojeda?? Now that’s funny!
All,
I may have been a little Punto’d out after watching yesterday’s flails. David Eckstein anyone. (No, just kidding!)
But I *am* liking Cuddyer in the five hole.
As for Johan, here’s the account of the latest:
Brent,
Never too early to start celebrating a holiday!
Read through the lines guys…
Punto for a puck bag or a bag of sunflower seeds. His time has come to go back to number .5 on a 24.5 man rosters
Can Ed Belfour play 2nd base?
Howard,
You obviously didn’t juggle any numbers on Augie Ojeda. I guess you can juggle the numbers on him all you want, but they will always add up to…he sucks! A career .235 hitter? There’s a reason why he’s never had more than 272 at bats in a season.
Auggie Ojeda? Why, Howard? He’s just another defensive-minded middle infielder who can’t hit. We already have enough of those.
The one guy who might make an impact and would be fairly inexpensive to get is Adam Kennedy. He is having a very good year in Oakland, has an one year deal and would probably cost a low/mid level prospect to get. The Twins are lucky in some respects because the traditional buyers are pretty much set at 2B.
Since we’re talking about former Twins, anybody see Santana’s blow up against the Brewers yesterday?
Ugly, but he didn’t get much help from his teammates or the ump that game.
RE: 2nd base. Kennedy is having a nice year, but he’s another LH bat, and he’s more of a .700-ish OPS guy than the .800 OPS he’s put up so far this year. He’d be cheap though.
I’d just as soon pay the price to get Sanchez, and I think the Pirates will continue to deal assets this year. He has a vesting option for around $8M next year, but this year’s Crede money would just about pay that and I doubt Crede will be a Twin next year.
I would not mind getting Sanchez either. What makes me a bit uneasy is not what it will take to get him (probably close to what took for the Twins to get Castillo a few years ago; given that Sanchez is a better player than Castillo was then but with a much bigger salary), but whether or not that extra $8 mil next season will make the Twins not close some other holes. Another thing to remember is that after this season, the following are eligible for arbitration:
Boof Bonser
Jesse Crain
Carlos Gomez (super 2)
Matt Guerrier
Fransisco Liriano
Pat Neshek
Brendan Harris
Glen Perkins (super 2)
Delmon Young
and will get raises. Plus the Mauer situation…
Howard:
A great guest post for your week off would be an invitation to readers to share their experiences and feelings of watching the Twins win the Series in 1987 and 1991.
You wouldn’t have to post anything at all, and it would generate some great comments!
Enjoy your time off.
as long as were talking about Lew, why not bring back Scott Stahoviak to back up Morneau. i bet Tony Batista is available at third (or maybe Big head Dave Hollins)
Tolleson has been mentioned as perhaps the second baseman of the future but what about Dinkelman?
oldguy,
the depth chart in 2B in the minors looks like this:
(Casilla) Tolleson/Dinkelman/Singleton/Santana/McCallum
(I am living GCL and DSL out because in GCL Choi and Bistagne are splitting time so far and DSL is too iffy). Also the organization filler (Marci, Machado, Gardenhire et al. are not mentioned).
My self I would simply depose of Casilla at the first chance I got, don’t you think, thrylos98? Or will he quit being a head case in the endgame?
And just because Tolleson is listed ahead of Dinkelman does not necessarily mean that Tolleson will be the better player ultimately.
Also, couldn’t one put Juan Portes in this mix as well?
I am not sure about Casilla. It could be that the Twins’ environment might not be right for him, it could be that he needs time to iron things out. He is a year younger than Tolleson and Dinkelman as well, and you got to take this into consideration.
As far as Portes goes, he is really having a great season this season in New Britain but at this point it seems to be a guy without a position. He played exclusively in the OF until Valencia moved to Rochester, then he has been the Rock Cats’ starting 3B. Hasn’t played much 2B for a while and Dinkelman in the same team means that he will not play 2B for a while.
Augie Ojeda? You have got to be kidding. There must be a half dozen other 2B out there ready to be traded and you want Ojeda? I think you DO NEED a few days off.
Ojeda?? No thanks!
The real (former) DBack that BS SHOULD have gone after was ODog. What an addition he would have been to the Twins lineup. There are many games that I just wonder how ARE we going to win this one with the dropoff in hitting after the lefties, Cuddyer and sometimes Crede. Of course my wonder is matched only by the totally inexplicable walks issued by opposing pitchers to Tolbert, Punto, Gomez and even Buscher and Young.
As for the Santana meltdown at Miller Park, it was as though there is some sort of black hole vortex in that place for Twins or former Twins. That fiasco looked like a complete rewind of the Blackburn game lost by that wonderful sequence of tosses LF-cutoff-catcher/pitcher-back to LF. Just substitute Santana and assorted Mets for the corresponding Twins players.
I would not give up on Casilla. His numbers in the minors are looking very good and he is most likely to give the Twins a spark. Some guys need a wakeup call and others need a few of them. He has had some very nice stretches of good baseball both with the Twins major and minor league and winter ball. I would still rather have him than LNP. Gardy looks at Punto’s stupid plays and ignores it. He looks at Casilla’s and says he just doesn’t get it. Play them each a full season and you would see Casilla dwarf Punto’s numbers.
Des, good point about Casilla and Gardy’s take on both him and LNP. And how does Gardy’s attitude toward others on the team also affect the whole ballclub? Therein lies the rub as a somewhat famous playwright once said.
I’d still like to see them get Sanchez but this is the Pohlads and it won’t happen. It doesn’t have to as they still will do great at the gate and that is the modus operandi for the organization anyway with a pennant being a distant second goal.
And let’s not get too excited about Keppel either, nice numbers so far but look at the track record plus the small sample size. Same scenario as the 2B situation, they’d rather fill the seats than contend, that is just the way of ownership by the Pohlads. So don’t look for them to bring in another good relief pitcher.
Hope I’m wrong on both of these points but I don’t think I am, what do some of you other posters think?
Howard’s Cuddy/Kuby flip-flop suggestion seems spot-on.
Brendan Harris is to Punto as Roy Smalley is to Houston Jimenez (or maybe Alvaro Espinoza). I think if Harris got 600 PA he’d hit 15-18 homers, bat .270 to .290 and end up in the mid to high .700s for OPS. Roy Smalley had 87 errors at SS in 3 peak years (77-78-79). I don’t think Roy was a liability. Harris would be fine as every day SS.
A walk to Brian Buscher is not inexplicable. The guy is leading the Twins in pitches seen per AB, AND he did hit .296 last year.
Thrylos, if I was a GM, I’d have to feel that whoever Billy Beane would request in return for Kennedy would have to have his value reconsidered. After all, reports said that they had been coveting Breslow for a while, they finally get him, and he starts pitching well, and everyone knows that the A’s have thrived on players that were undervalued by other teams. But if the Twins are able to only give up some low minor leaguers that don’t project to significantly help the team in the next few years, then I would be willing for them to go for Kennedy.
