(Note from Howard: I’m getting away from the keyboard for a few days. Recently, I asked for some guest posts for us to read over the next couple of weeks and I received several interesting ones. Today’s is from  Andrew Bryz-Gornia, who explains: “I am going to be a junior at Gustavus Adolphus College. While my dream is to be a sportswriter, it appears that my future will be as a high school math teacher with a side of blogging.” Bryz-Gornia has taken a look back at the Twins’ off season relief options and played with the numbers, which means he’s on the right track for bringing math to the masses.Have a great holiday!)

By now, the Twins’ bullpen struggles have been well documented. Although they have been much better lately, many people feel that one or two more solid relievers would vastly improve the team. The signing of Luis Ayala in the offseason was not an ideal move for fans, but still a classic Twins, low risk/high reward signing. Many fans (myself included) were clamoring for someone like Juan Cruz, but as we approach the All-Star break, most of the names that were tied to the Twins in the offseason at first glance have been just as bad or worse than

Ayala. For curiosity’s sake, I will also include some former Twins that could have had an impact this season, Ayala as a comparison. You still want Russ Springer? Disclaimer: I will be using FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) as an evaluating tool. For those that are unfamiliar with FIP, go here. If a pitcher’s FIP is similar to his ERA, then he is performing at a level that should be expected of him.

Luis Ayala: 4.18 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.42 WHIP
Now that the rift between Ayala and Gardy has been publicized, it appears that Ayala was at fault. But can you blame him? All offseason, the Twins talk about needing a setup man. Ayala has a history of being a closer and setup man and is signed. After a few bad games, he is relegated to middle relief. Ayala complains to Gardy about his role. His last 15 IP as a Twin, he posts a .933 WHIP and 2.40 ERA. Unless Bobby Keppel keeps pitching well, I feel that the Twins may have pulled a Breslow and given up on Ayala too soon.

Craig Breslow (combined Twins & A‘s): 4.20 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.28 WHIP
I felt that Breslow was shown the door a bit too early, and he has proven me right since joining the A’s, especially since his replacement, Sean Henn, has just been replaced by Brian Duensing. His walks and HR allowed were too high with the Twins, but he had a good OBA prior to being claimed off waivers.

Bobby Korecky (Triple-A): 2.28 ERA, 2.15 FIP, 0.90 WHIP
Although Korecky, the same guy that was waived to make room for Ayala, hasn‘t pitched well in the majors for Arizona so far (though a 4.03 FIP says otherwise), he has been having a career year in Triple-A. Unfortunately, this means he’s likely due for a regression at some point, but with having a similar skill set to Ayala, you have to wonder how he would have pitched for the Twins this year.

Dennys Reyes: 4.35 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.31 WHIP
Despite a mutual interest, the Twins and Reyes didn’t really have a chance to remain together in ‘09 with the emergence of Breslow and Jose Mijares. As is life as a LOOGY (left-handed one-out guy) , Reyes’ ERA is a bit skewed due to a couple poor outings.

Juan Cruz: 4.91 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.36 WHIP
The guy that I’m sure most Twins fans wanted, he has clearly disappointed this year. Although his WHIP isn’t much differently from his past 2 seasons, a K rate that is half of last year’s isn’t good for a guy that was lauded for his ability to miss bats.

Brandon Lyon: 4.03 ERA, 5.22 FIP, 1.21 WHIP
Which do you believe? His FIP is similar to ’05 (6.44 ERA) but his WHIP to ’07 (2.68 ERA).

Eric Gagne (Quebec Capitales): 10.80 ERA, 2.35 WHIP
After learning some French from the Capitales official website, I found out from the Can-Am League website that Gagne hasn‘t pitched well at all. Combined with his MLB career, he certainly has had a hard fall from grace, and not the kind that you associate with pickup lines.

Chad Cordero: N/A
From what I can tell, Cordero is still in extended spring training for the Mariners rehabbing his shoulder. From May 20, GM Jack Zduriencik was quoted as saying that Cordero still had to improve his velocity before he would be assigned to the minors, and I believe that is still the case. During the offseason, this was a guy that I really wanted the Twins to sign, but considering that I can’t even track down his ‘09 minor league stats, there’s no way he would have been better than Ayala.

Russ Springer: 5.02 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.74 WHIP
Another guy that I wanted to see the Twins pursue, at first glance he appears to be having a poor season. But if you throw out a 6 game stretch of 11 ER in June, Springer improves to a 1.78 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. So as it turns out, you probably do still want Russ Springer.

When I first finished finding these stats, I thought that Ayala had simply outperformed just about everyone else on this list. But after checking the game logs for Springer and Reyes, I decided to look at everyone’s game logs and found that everyone had been a victim to 2-4 poor outings. Now I understand that picking and choosing certain games can make anyone look like a solid reliever, but this meant that most on this list would have been a good choice to be or stay a Twin. I also know that ERA is not the best way to judge a pitcher’s ability, but it is the simplest. So, after eliminating each pitcher’s 3 worst games (judged by their worst single game ERA) and still having about 25+ games in reserve for each, I leave you with each pitcher’s new ERA.

Reyes: 1.98
Lyon: 2.03
Breslow: 2.15
Cruz: 2.58
Springer: 2.70
Ayala: 2.73

This entry was posted on Friday, July 3rd, 2009 at 9:11 am and is filed under Guest post. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.