Stat Heads and Dreamers. Who loves baseball more?
Posted on July 7th, 2009 – 9:56 AMBy Howard
(Howard’s note: Today’s guest post is from Jake Depue, a Ph.D. student in the School of Journalism and Mass Communication at the University of Minnesota and 2004 graduate of Macalester College. He sometimes yells cruel things at Nick Punto, but almost always regrets it later. I assume he will despise all things New York for the next few days.)
Among serious fans, there are two equal and not entirely exclusive ways of following baseball. The first is the “Stat Head” approach. Stat Heads get their enjoyment from the rich and complex samples Major League Baseball provides throughout a 30 team, 162 game season. No other sport can come close to the amount of statistics baseball offers to its dedicated followers. Sabermetrics has allowed serious fans and baseball executives (sometimes) to assess player value through the lens of true objectivity. You can’t hide from your .OPS, your VORP, or your xFIP.
When I think of a Stat Head (and I do not use that term in a negative way), I think of Aaron Gleeman. Gleeman has combined an in-depth knowledge of sabermetrics with good writing skills and hard work to make a career out of what was once a hobby. At his best, he has me convinced that he could run the Twins better than Bill Smith, or even (gulp!) Terry Ryan. Gleeman, and others like him, have allowed fans the right to question their team’s moves not based on the time they saw Tony Batista hit a home run at the dome or Little Nicky Punto make a diving play at short (or, sadly, into first); but on statistically significant sample sizes based on hundreds, sometimes thousands, of repetitions. They have changed the way baseball is played.
While Gleeman is an amazing Twins blogger and a daily must-read, I wonder sometimes if he and other Stat Heads enjoy baseball. Do they see the game only in numbers, every at bat broken down based on a series of different statistics for the situation at hand? Does it become robotic, with even the most unlikely of comebacks seen simply through the lens of the percentage chance it would happen?
I hope not. I hope Stat Heads smile when they see Carlos Gomez sprint full speed around the bases at Wrigley after his first home run of the season, pace around the living room during a stressful Joe Nathan save, and remember where they were when Jacque Jones inexplicably threw a 30 mile per hour floater to home to lose Game 2 of the ’04 ALDS (do you remember that throw? One of the most overlooked Twins flops in recent memory. Did he really think Jeter wasn’t going to tag?).
This is how I and many others follow the Twins. We’re Dreamers. We fantasize about watching Justin Morneau hit a walk off home run to win a playoff game, or Joe Mauer coming into the last game ever at the Dome batting .401. To the Dreamer, the stats are a valuable tool, but in the end it’s about the experience.
The memories of my summers past and present in the Twin Cities always have an unmistakable Twins tint. I remember 2002, when a chilly winter was looming in mid-October as I sat in my living room drenched in a nervous sweat, watching Eddie Guardado try to close out the A’s in Oakland and allow summer a temporary reprieve.
I remember the next summer, 2003, when a combination of a stress-free job, more mind altering substances than I knew what to do with, and a house full of carefree college kids allowed me to reach a state of living as close to bliss as I could ever imagine. For three months I wished the Twins were along for the ride. Then Shannon Stewart arrived from Toronto (sans plantar fasciitis), and the Twins made their run. They were the last piece to making my life damn near perfect.
And I remember last year against the White Sox. My personal life in disarray, the Twins gave me a 3 day escape. I was at the dome every night for that sweep, screaming, screaming from the upper deck, hugging my friends and jumping up and down when Casilla got his hit, and taking shots with random Twins fans at Grumpy’s afterwards while singing “We’re gonna win Twins, we’re gonna score!” at the top of our lungs.
My point is that for the Dreamer, no matter how pathetic it may seem to an outsider, baseball can actually affect your life. It’s given me the highest highs, and some truly crushing, why-the-hell-do-I-bother-with-this lows. I am, without question, addicted to it. When I think about the amount of baseball I watch, it equates to a part time job. I pass up social outings to watch May games against the Royals. I stay up until 3 am doing school work because I was at the Dome until 11. I sprint around the living room, I throw my remote, I hug my friends. But no matter what, it is always an experience. It shapes my memories and impacts my day.
Maybe it shouldn’t, but it does.
76 Responses to "Stat Heads and Dreamers. Who loves baseball more?"
Jake your one of my kind brother very well written piece. In the words of the late great John Lennon “You may say i’m a dreamer but i’m not the only one”.
Amen brotha, amen.
I have to admit, there are a lot of days when I try to remember what it was like to watch baseball before the boom of blogs, before it was ok to question what the TV or radio announcers said, or to look beyond the simple Batting Average, Home Runs, RBI.
This is an excellent topic, and there probably is no real, right answer. Everyone enjoys the great game for different reasons, and that’s OK. If I choose to follow the minor leagues, and another blogger decides that xFIP or VORP or important, it all makes for more baseball information to read. The nice thing is that they can all compliment each other and hopefully provide Twins fans with plenty of options so that they too can figure out what they want to be as a fan.
I think during the games i am a dreamer and in memories a dreamer. When speaking of who to keep/get rid of i like the numbers. I know i have never thought of the complex numbers at a game. I do know that Silva was terrible when i saw him pitch live and the numbers back it up. 
Statheads watch the game the same way you do, and hope for the same outcome (a Twins win). We just happen to review different statistics when wondering about how the new free agent signing may fare, or what we can expect from a recent call-up, or how the team stands to fare in the second half of the season. The numbers we use have absolutely no effect on our enjoyment while watching games. All baseball fans are Dreamers.
ah…. baseball.. the game we escape from real life to, and then sometimes need real life to escape from.
great thoughts Jake
I am definitely in the dreamer category. I understand the draw of stats and sabermetrics, but I don’t have the time to get that into it. Watching the Twins is my only real hobby in the summer and nothing beats kicking back and enjoying a game. It took me until I was 25 to fully appreciate and enjoy the natural pace of a baseball game. I try not to get too bent out of shape on how the Twins are doing, and just try to appreciate the players (M&M boys) and their accomplishments. I get real chills when thinking about Target Field next year and I really hope that we can win a WS with our current core group. I love the way the Twins (especially our star players) embody “Minnesota Nice”. They work hard, are humble, and (like it or not) the front office makes (for the most part) smart frugal moves. Twins fan 4 life!
I think a lot of us are in the same category…I’ve grown too old to be a remote thrower or a friend hugger, but that might come again if we see October baseball.
My only beef with Mr. Depue’s essay is in his two paragraph butt-kissing of Aaron Gleeman. I don’t know Gleeman personally and I won’t get into it out of respect for Howard, who has frequently urged us not to use this forum to discuss other blogs (although that only seems to apply if the discussion is critical in nature). It just seemed a bit over-the-top.
Anyway, thanks again Mr. Depue and let’s hope we have some meaningful games in September and October that warrant ‘remote throwing’ and ‘friend hugging’.
By the way, I think there have been about 3 games this year that I’ve missed live on radio, TV, or in person. My guess is that puts me in the ‘average’ category among my 220 brotheren, but I’d be curious to hear how dialed-in the rest of you are.
I love baseball. I love the statistical analysis boom. They aren’t incompatible.
Prior to being introduced to some of the stats that are out there these days, I loved to go to a game, have a hot dog and watch the plays. I made judgments about individual players — whom I thought was good and whom I thought was not so good. Sometimes, guys I thought were not so good made plays. When they did, I stood up, whooped and hollered and cheered. When the same guys struck out with the bases loaded, I grumbled. If the manager made a move that I thought was stupid, I grumbled. When the Twins won, I was elated. When they lost, I was a little disappointed. I enjoyed the game experience immensely.
Now that I’ve been exposed to more sophisticated analysis of baseball player’s performances, when I go to a game, I have a hot dog and watch the plays. I have judgments about whether I think certain players are good and which ones aren’t. When a player makes a good play, I stand up, whoop and holler, whether or not that guy is a good player in my estimation. When the Twins win, I’m elated. When the Twins lose, I’m a little disappointed.
The only thing that has changed is how I decide whether a player is good or no good. My actual enjoyment of the game has not decreased ONE SINGLE BIT! In fact, I would say that my interest in baseball has increased and my love of the game experience is just as high as ever. Now, if I could only convince my wife that it is a fun experience.
Jake, I like the post. Very thoughtful, and you’re definitely not alone on your addictive nature towards baseball, America’s favorite sport. And Howard, thanks for letting some of your fans contribute to the blog.
As a side note, Jake if you’re using this for credentials in your Mass Comm future, take a look at the 2nd to last sentence. “But no matter what,…” there’s a brief little typo (i is, guessing supposed to be “it is…). THis coming from another Mass Comm grad. Good luck in the future, and great guest post!! Thank you!
As Jason, as for dialed in for the games. I think I’ve maybe missed a couple games this year. Mainly Friday night games when I’m at the softball fields, but usually catch the tail end of the games at the nearby pub! But if I’m home, the tv is tuned to the Twins, and if I’m driving, the radio is on w/ Danny G.
As a math teacher I consider myself to be a stat-head in that I read others’ blogs and number crunching to make informed decisions about what moves I think the Twins should make. However, I don’t believe the premise that this story promotes that these two camps are mutually exclusive (I know in the lead paragraph the author states they are not exclusive and I am speaking to the general public that thinks numbers people are devoid of emotion). I also consider myself firmly in the dreamer camp. I had the good fortune to attend game 7 in 1991 when I was 13 years old and forever am chasing that high by wishing and trying to will my team to victory each and every night. I firmly believe in the law of large numbers and if the team follows the stats by making the most informed decisions that I will be able to get my fix again.
THANKS JAKE. I am SUCH a dreamer. I live in CO and the games are usually during dinner/bedtime for my two little princesses, which kills me. All of you who live in MN and get to watch Twins games for free every night, count your blessings. Me? I’m stuck with MLB.TV, which I do watch, but since I’m usually so jonesing to follow the game live, I do it on my BBerry with the mobile GameCast. Sad, I know.
As a rare combination of stat head and dreamer(streamer?), I just can’t keep my mind from thinking about outdoor Twins baseball.
I fell in love with Twins baseball at the old Met. I bought the Calvin Griffith’s bill of goods at the time the Dome opened as “progress”.
Living in S.Cal and Colorado brought me back to outdoor MLB, but I have always been a Twins fan first.
I am estatic that MN taxpayers and the Pohlad’s couldn’t find the funds for a roof.
I will be thrilled to explain to my daughter that “the ball will not be hitting the speakers anymore”.
Just think, this is the last chance to see the Yankees in the Dome. Hurray!!!
Matt E -
Check your 3rd to the last sentence of your first post: “THis coming from another Mass Comm grad.” There’s a brief little typo.
I’d consider myself both… Love the 01 and 02 Twins for brining a bit of zest back to baseball in MN and the 06 Twins for playing the best baseball I’ve ever witnessed. It’s these teams that got me dreaming but in my quest to learn more I’ve found blogs like Gleemans to be enthralling and “truth” telling. He’s not always right but it’s hard to ignore the facts. However, Span is a perfect example of where scouting and projecting are as important as any stats.
I’m incredibly into the stats as a different layer of the onion and makes it a much more engaged Twins loving experience.
Very well written Jake.I guess I would certainly fall in the dreamer catagory.I understand the lure of statistics in baseball,but quite frankly they have gone to far IMO.I think too many “stat guys” use stats to prove their knowledge of the game.And often they prove exactly the opposite.
The problem is,stats are black and white to the stat guy.But Baseball isn’t black and white.It’s colorful,stimulating,and full of nuance. Statistical analysis may be stimulating to some,but baseball should be much more than that.At least to my way of thinking.
Baseball is far and away my favorite sport.The only other sport I follow is Hockey,it’s the perfect fit.It starts around the time baseball season ends, and ends right when the Baseball season starts to heat up.Hockey also provides me relief from statistical over load.If you don’t believe me read Russo’s Star Tribune blog on the Wild.No stat geeks there.Just passionate,opinionated Hockey fans!
I never once looked at a BABIP, ISO, FIP, or UZR until watching the Twins became a luxury in that I moved to Pittsburgh. Whilst in my self induced exile, I can only observe the Twins online providing a fine medium for poring over the stats while monitoring a gamecast. Stathead by necessity. If I’m back in MN (or make $$$), though, I don’t doubt my analysis will be less statistically based as I’ll be watching the games. I don’t think any fan would argue that seeing the action is a richer experience. Ultimately, I don’t think that that stat-head vs. dreamer need be so black and white when most everyone is on a spectrum betwixt the two. After all, the dream of Mauer hitting .400 is based upon a stat.
“The problem is, stats are black and white to the stat guy. But Baseball isn’t black and white. It’s colorful, stimulating, and full of nuance.”
indeed. a big part of the joy of baseball is when somebody who, statistically speaking, isn’t “supposed” to get a hit against a certain pitcher … does.
in my world stats are more fun in reflection than as a predictor. guess that makes me a dreamer?
Response to article:
I really like baseball. I don’t think there is anything about liking stats to judge how good a player is that excludes the emotional response to the play as it takes place (or even for some time afterwards). I don’t understand at all how those two activities are exclusive at all.
Responses to other comments:
As for Span, it’s not like the scouts hadn’t given up on him. This myth that only statheads had given up on him is just not true. Go back and read the comments from scouts and the Twins themselves at that time.
I also don’t get that some people think a sport/entertainment should be enjoyed in a certain “right” way.
Finally, stats aren’t black and white. I’m not sure what that means. They are black and white, I guess in terms of looking bac, but in terms of looking forward, they are predictive (just like scouting), not black and white at all. The vagaries of chance play a large part in any individual outcome - otherwise there would be little reason to watch sports, and less time for great memories of unexpected results (you can’t have unexpected results without having stats in the first place….).
Almost forgot: nicely written. I enjoyed it and it provoked thoughtful comments - well done.
awesome article from a truly passionate fan…thanks for sharing
Great article. It led me to wonder how many games I’ve missed this season. The answer is three — because my mother died — and this is perhaps the only forum in which I can admit without shame that I asked for a Twins update from a mourner at her wake. Duly noted that she was a Twins fan from waaaay back who never fully embraced televised coverage. Rest in peace, Mom.
Well put, SBG, probably the best response I’ve seen on the topic before!! Thanks and thanks Jake!
Growing up, I was definitely a Dreamer, and for the most part I still am. But out of obsession, I felt like I had to learn to understand every little nuance of baseball and so I have now gravitated between a Stat Head and a Dreamer. As I did in my article that Howard posted, I look at FIP and sample sizes to understand why Russ Springer had a 5.00 ERA just 2 months after having a 1.00 ERA in April, but I also am the guy that stays up and watched all 16 innings or feels like the happiest person on Earth after seeing Kubel complete the cycle and a comeback against the Angels.
Nick Blackburn is also a good example. Stat Heads keep saying that he isn’t as good as his ERA says (which I can agree with) but during this year and last year, he has defied what the sabermetrics predict. So as a Dreamer, I believe that there is some part of him that is able to make his best pitches when he needs them most.
Jason, I want to know if you have read Gleeman’s blog. I apologize for contributing to the promotion of his blog, but I agree with Jake Depue that Gleeman could probably run a major league front office right now if given the chance. Plus, Jake was using Gleeman as an example of a Stat Head. Can you think of a better example?
Jake, this is a great post. I’m part of a Twins Facebook group, and there are often arguments among Dreamers and Stat Heads over a player’s true worth to the team (Carlos Gomez is a common and great example). Also, I see you’re going to school for journalism and communications, and based on this post, I’m sure you’re going to do a very fine job.
Howard, would it be possible for the comments to be enabled on my post? I was hoping to get feedback from the readers.
I think the key point you make is “not necessarily exclusive” ways to view baseball. I enjoy the stats for the insight they bring. I remember posting on a blog last winter where there was some discussion of trading Kubel. I posted two sets of nearly identical career stats for for the beginning of twoplayers careers and asked people to identify which were David Ortiz and which were Kubel’s. For the same approximate number of at-bats in the majors, they were nearly identical. We let Ortiz go at that point and we kept Kubel.
On the other hand, no matter what Nick Punto’s career and season stats are, for this particular at-bat, anything can happen. Some are more probable than others given the stats, but he could still hit a walk-off home-run this time, so I scream and pace my living room and dream of what could happen. I too am an addict.
Nice post, Jake.
I like to think that most fans are much like me (perhaps it allows me to pretend I’m “normal”) in that they can and do appreciate the “dreaming” involved with being a fan of any team in any sport at any level, while at the same time understanding that stats enhance our understanding of what we see on the field. For most of us, they aren’t mutually exclusive.
Unfortunately, there seems to have developed two communities of “outliers”.
There are those stat-heads to whom nothing BUT the stats seem to matter and who immerse themselves so deeply in to the stats (especially those that they have deemed to be incontrovertably reflective of a player/team’s abilities), that they tend to look down their noses at anyone who dares to so much as utter, “you know, I really just like to watch the way this guy plays the game.”
Likewise, there is a group who fall in to the Charlie Brown category. (Charlie once told Lucy to “tell your statistics to shut up”. It should be noted that Charlie Brown’s team didn’t win many games under his management, of course.) But These folks seem to feel that no matter what the stats say, they just inherently know what constitutes a good or bad player/team based on what they can see with their own eyes.
I feel sorry for those in both of those outlier categories because I genuinely feel they’re missing out on an opportunity to enjoy the game so much more… like us “normal” people do.
There’s room in the community for the Gleemans and the Batgirls… and for people who can appreciate both for what they bring to the experience of being a fan.
mike,
I said: stats are black and white To the “stats guys”.I think it gets proven here daily.The stat guys say “here is the stat,it has to be true.” The problem in my opinion is,there are so many stats you can find one to support almost anything.
I do agree with you that stats do help to create the unexpected,that was an excellent point!But I guess if I had a choice to sit next to Bill James at a game,or some grizzled old scout who judged a player on what he saw on the field, and found out about the player through discusion,I’d take the old scout every time.But then I’m a grizzled old fart myself!
As usual JimCrikket seems to sum it up best.I agree that there is a time and place for stats.But I also understand a manager’s right to go with his gut feeling in a certain situation.And that makes for much better morning after water cooler talk.For the record,I place myself firmly in the middle of the Gleeman/Batgirl camps.
On the other topic - I moved away from Minneapolis 12 years ago. Living now in Champaign, IL I only get to a couple of games a year at the dome (and am REALLY looking forward to outdoor baseball next year) but have had MLB.TV since it started and the extra innings package. When the Twins are on the Saturday Fox game, we NEVER get it here - so I listen on mlb audio, watch gamecast and then, Saturday night, watch the arcived broadcast on mlb.tv. I saved the recoding of the Kubel cycle game, watched it last night to get through the off day. These are why I would consider myself a dreamer and an addict.
Bryz, I’ve read Gleeman’s blog plenty.
I refrain from comment out of respect for Howard, although if Gleeman is qualified to run a MLB office, then so am I and so are you, probably.
I consider myself a ‘Stat Head’ in the sense that I love statistics, although not nearly to the extent as some bloggers do. In baseball, much like all life, there is a human element that transcends statistics…this is what makees it great.
Here’s a fine example of how stats may enhance the experience (and a good yarn too).
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/mlbs-greatest-game-ever/
What sounds worse: a lousy hitter or a .060 hitter?
Nice job Jake. I’d like to submit another category though. I don’t think I’m unique.
I kinda went through my emotional/dreamer phase. Not that I don’t still feel the exhilaration of a closely contested win, or the sting of a hard fought defeat. Or the boredom of a blowout either way.
And stats. My living depends on the application of numbers and values. They’re as much a part of the game as the scoreboard. But I can see if a player or team is doing well or not. Stats are there for all of the yesterdays I have missed or may have forgotten.
No. For me it’s about the moment. The art form. Watching the best in the world ply their trade. For me it’s in the subtleties. An outfielder preparing for his throw in after a catch. An infielder’s footwork before he catches a ball. A pitcher holding a guy on. How he responds to being squeezed by the ump. The application of the tenacity required to be winners. To me it’s art. To me it’s a dance. That’s what holds my interest.
Ah, I remember the days, CJ420, when I was a boy and could watch the Twins for free. But when I moved back to Minnesota in 2001, I discovered that I had to subscribe to cable to see my favorite team play…or go to a bar for every game. Either way, I could no longer watch them for free where I live. So I enjoy them on the radio and try to make it to a handful of games each year. I’ll give you this, though: it really is great to be in Twins Territory physically as well as spiritually.
You can get into trouble leaning too hard either way. Extremism is pretty much always a vice.
Ok, I was just asking because I’m sure there are people that make judgments after only reading a few articles.
Gleeman is not necessarily qualified to run a front office, but I do believe that he would do a solid job.
Great post. Sums up exactly how I feel about baseball.
I think the idea of Gleeman running a front office is out there a bit. That being said, an infusion of the metrix is beginning to occur in FOs around the league. When did Bill James start consulting for the Red Sox? I think he started just prior to the breaking of the curse. Doesn’t Tom Tango consult with the Mariners? (hat tip to Over the Baggy, can’t just hook Gleeman all day) Complex stats are a viable tool and should be respected by any FO, but they are still just one tool in a box that must also contain scouting, development, chemistry, etc…
What the hell use is a Ph.D. in journalism?
Very nice post. You are certainly not alone in your “Dreamer” mentality. In fact, baseball is great because of the dreamers–the fans that enjoy the game, not the stats.
It’s amazing that many people believe that they are capable of being GMs. Every team runs the same detailed stats on all players, so everyone has the same information. (I see this in my line of work. My employer and all of its competitors have the same financial information. So, those being equal, the deciding variables often are something other than future outcome or performance predicated upon past outcomes or performance. Believe me, it ain’t easy to make money. Try looking at simultaneous currency fluctuation calculation for multiple currency transactions. It’s even more complicated in sports, because it’s hard to predict what outcome will result from signing what player or players. What has Hunter or Santana done for the Angels and Mets, respectively? Did they play against each other in the WS last year? Where have the Yanks been the last 6 years after a boatload of FA signings? Who knows what result the Yanks will show this year?)
So, in the end, it’s: (i) salaries (i.e., matching long term revenue projections to long term contracts and predicting (maybe, hoping for?) performance over the term of such contracts). (ii) Whether or not a trade is being made within the Division or league, (iii) personalities, and (iv) intangibles. Intangibles would be how a player would fit in the clubhouse. Cases on point: Albert Belle and Milton Bradley.
It ain’t as easy as run the numbers and grab the guy.
I love stats. Where things go bad is when people who understand their meaning make an argument that gets repeated by those who don’t understand the context of the stats. The result is a mob of angry fans who think they have indisputable evidence that Lew Ford is the worst thing to ever happen to baseball… until Rondell White, and then it couldn’t get any worse… until Nick Punto came along and created -500 runs to become the biggest albatros imaginable… until Delmon Young came along….
I also keep wondering what the Twins would look like if the front office leveraged research as well as Gleeman. I certainly don’t try to do anything Aaron does. I read his column to get informed. A am simply a fan who roots on the team and consumes what smart (and not so smart) people will share.
About the “Little Nicky Punto” reference in Jake’s post (a nickname invented by Batgirl) and comments referencing Batgirl: As a fan, I think the biggest thing I miss, day in and day out, for the last few years is batgirl. She retired in 2006, I think. Made one post on the Delmon Young trade on Dec. 1 2007, and has never been heard from again. I really miss the joy she brought to my days.
She was especially wonderful after a loss filled with ass-bats. I would be grouchy and irritable, then read her take on it, or her rant on ass-batness, and pull right out of my funk.
I still miss her.
Joe the First: I do understand that you can’t just go out and get everyone that you want. But Gleeman did know that Breslow was a better pitcher than Henn. It’s not just about who you acquire, it’s also about who you put on your 25 man roster.
brooklynegg: I completely forgot about Batgirl. Her blog was the first Twins blog that I ever read, and I enjoyed every minute of it. Legovision was one of the funniest things I had ever seen. She made legitimate nicknames for players, instead of the typical A-Rod (or any letter-Rod) or adding a y to the end of someone’s name. It’s too bad that no one has continued her blog.
“But Gleeman did know that Breslow was a better pitcher than Henn.”
rather than “… did know …” i’d say “… did guess right …”
Just heard there were scouts for 16 different teams watching Washburn’s 1 hit shutout last night. Twins have always liked that guy, and I bet they were there… I doubt they have the prospects to compete with 16 teams or even any actual realistic intention of ever doing anything in the way of a trade-deadline move, but it would be nice if the Liriano/Perkins of the world know the rotation spot is in no way secured for them….
brooklynegg, don’t kid yourself, all of the teams run or have access to the same detailed level of stats. It’s what a team can afford for a player that’ll fit. All teams must match projected revenue to the aggregate of annual contract payouts, both actual and projected.
In other words, one year of sellouts at The Target ain’t gonna cut it for signing a fistful of FAs.
brooklynegg and Bryz, I believe BG is alive and well and living in Cleveland with her family (well, if anyone actually can “live” in Cleveland).
Not that I want to get in to a “blog referral” mode here, but since Howard already has a link to it on his Blogroll list, I’ll just suggest you click on “Oh, it’s THOSE girls” occasionally. It’s not “Batgirl”, but it’s definitely in the same vein and I find it helps me get through my most trying “where is Batgirl when I need her?” moments.
From May 21, ‘09: http://www.aarongleeman.com/2009_05_17_baseballblog_archive.html (2nd article from top)
Final sentence reads: “He’s (Breslow) just a better pitcher, period, and not surprisingly the A’s plucked him off waivers.”
Sounds pretty definitive to me.
Paul, the imagery of the dance and art is what makes sports what they are to me. Hearing the story of how Kirk Gibson was told by a scout that he guaranteed that if Eck got him to 3-2 in a tight game, that he’d throw him a backdoor slider. Gibson backs out of the box, breathes deeply to calm himself, “re-hears” the scout’s words, and then hits one of the most memorable HomeRuns in history - that dance is what I love. Of course, the scout probably knew this through observation, and that Eckersly had a statistical tendency to to do that (though he’d likely never realize he was using stats). That dance is almost as exciting as the art/dance of the athletic moment of luck/skill.
That unknown, that unpredictable nature, that anticipation and release, that’s why I still watch sports.
“Sounds pretty definitive to me.”
sounds like a pretty definitive guess to me.
Wasn’t Gleeman the same guy who said Blackburn would never pan out because he “didn’t make hitters miss enough” hmm i guess there’s no stat for the size of the fight in the dog.
A $100 bet with anyone that Breslow won’t perform less or more better than 20% deviation from his career stats.
BC of ND: EVERYONE has been saying that Blackburn isn’t good enough, but he keeps proving us wrong. From my first post:
Nick Blackburn is also a good example. Stat Heads keep saying that he isn’t as good as his ERA says (which I can agree with) but during this year and last year, he has defied what the sabermetrics predict. So as a Dreamer, I believe that there is some part of him that is able to make his best pitches when he needs them most.
Bryz he is a great example and i’ll bet you he’s a dreamer just like us.
Great post Jake, to a point, these two can live together. I study the stats, listen too, and review minor league games. With the Twins, I try for all the info I can get. I dream mostly, but with stats in mind.
The problem with a guy like Gleeman, He doesn’t watch the games. Stats tell you a lot of the story, but not the whole story.
The love of the game and education on statistical analysis are not mutually exclusive at all. Regardless of whether or not a fan is educated, they still use stats to tell the story regardless. Whether you’re citing a batting average or an OPS+ or xFIP or Wins/Losses of a pitcher, you are using numbers to tell a story of why you value or don’t value a player relative to other players. The only thing statistical analysis has done is helped fans determine which numbers are more flawed and which numbers hold more significance, and in what context.
The intellectually lazy fan will not bother with these nuances and continue to listen to Dick and Bert, Steve Phillips, John Kruk, etc. because ‘Well…they’ve been there. They’re the experts.’ And certainly the game can still be enjoyed that way as well. It’s similar to not needing to be a mechanical engineer to enjoy working on cars or watching racing.
But if anything, the use of better stats over bogus stats enhances the curiosity for the game of fan. The more knowledge one can acquire about, the more interested a fan can become.
What SBG said (at 11:29).
Ah, Chief. Such a way with words.
“intellectually lazy fan”. “bogus stats”.
See, it’s that kind of stat-head snobbery that suggests anyone who isn’t impressed with your “education on statistical analysis” is inferior to you and can’t possibly really enjoy baseball except as some sort of dullard who’s too lazy to really understand or care about the “nuances” of the game.
And in my humble opinion, it’s crap.
We can argue all we want about Gleeman the GM … Breslow vs Henn … whatever.
I say POUND THE YANKEES and go hit that ol’ Budweiser.
Truly, to this I say Amen. Its almost as if these words were taken right out of my heart. There are many of us that follow the Twins almost as if we are living ad breathing alng with the team. Crack out bunch of ‘em for us tonight guys, the Yanks are comin’ and we need a win!
Part of the reason people like Jake Depue think Aaron Gleeman could do a better job as a GM is in fact because the Twins DON’T use sabermetrics. If you ask FO people about xFIP, VORP or WPA, they’ll give you a blank stare or say “you’re one of those sabermetrician people” while snickering at you. Gardenhire has admitted he doesn’t use them. Same with Bill Smith.
People wonder how Boston has become a perennial WS contender after being cursed for so long. If you look up when Bill James started being a BoSox consultant and when they’re Sabermetric using GM Theo Epstein took over, you’ll notice they started winning the WS not long after.
Also to JA,
Gleeman does watch the games, he watches them on mute cause he hates listening to Dick and Bert.
Hi, I’m James, and I’m a dreamer too. Welcome to the group, Jake.
what JimC said at 4:40. Just like the dreamers who rip stat heads, I don’t get the stat heads that rip the dreamers. Who am I to tell someone how they should or should not enjoy entertainment?
Nice Jake!
GREAT post.
I guess I don’t really get the point of this discussion. Why can’t people enjoy different aspects of the great game of baseball? I’ll be honest and say that I don’t understand many of the advanced stats and I have no interest in any discussion that breaks down a pitcher’s performance based on release points etc, but that doesn’t mean that someone with a statistical bent can’t or doesn’t enjoy the game as much as I do.
There is really no way to judge how much another person enjoys the game (unless they tell you) and no real reason to do so.
both sides have their points and counterpoints. I like to think I’m a dreamer, but I use stats all the time. Guess you could call me a Hybrid, or Statisdreamer. Though I will say I’m not that big of a fan of a lot of the ‘unofficial’ stats that people throw out there…
BTW- I’m sure its been talked about, but what a joke that Morneau is not the starting First Baseman, if you haven’t already, go check out an article ESPN.com’s Keith Law wrote about the selections, to paraphrase some:
[Carlos Pena is the same hitter and a better fielder than Morneau]. Then you look at the states and Mornsie is hitting 100 points higher, has more RBI’s, and 7 less errors. Much more goin on in that article that is ludicrous, He leaves Morneau off his All-Star team entirely, which is ridonkulous considering he leads all 1B-man in virtually every offennsive category, official and non-official. And we all know how good of a fielder he is…
forgot to mention, I’m out in CO right now and went to my 3rd Rockies game ever (they’re 3-0 in those games, including the marathon 18-17 one last year). couple former twins saw action, Guzman at SS for the Nationals (committed a crucial error) and our buddy Juan Rincon (got 2 outs to escape a jam for the Rockies).
This was the first time in a long time that I’ve gotten goosebumps after reading a blog, maybe ever. Very well written.
You are getting your Dr in Journalism yet somehow think more information lessons the enjoyment?!?!?!?
Ignorance is bliss?
I’m a stats guy, and definitely not a dreamer. Or at least I was/wasn’t. I think if I added up all the innings I’ve watched this year I’d end up with 5 games watched, at most. I only watch or read about baseball to kill time. Speaking of kill, I still feel the same about magicians, including the right fielder.
Who is the heart of this team?
This is sort of on-topic, in that stats and this technology are tools for analyzing baseball. It made me chuckle. It’s from Bob Collins’ Newscut Blog at MPR.ORG.
“New technology in baseball, says the New York Times:
A new camera and software system in its final testing phases will record the exact speed and location of the ball and every player on the field, allowing the most digitized of sports to be overrun anew by hundreds of innovative statistics that will rate players more accurately, almost certainly affect their compensation and perhaps alter how the game itself is played.
The new gizmo will reveal that the Twins need a secondbaseman who can hit.”
