Halfway home in the AL’s Hope and Concern Division
Posted on July 13th, 2009 – 10:15 AMBy Howard
The hardest part about watching the AL Central race is the feeling that the Twins should (a word I hate to use for all sorts of reasons) be four games ahead of the pack right now instead of sitting third — four games behind the Tigers and with a 10-game road trip coming up when play resumes on Friday. The good news is twofold: The hollow part is the accident of geography and knowing that the Twins would likely be in last place in they swapped places with Baltimore and played in the AL East. The heartening part is that even a flawed team can win the AL Central and go on to the postseason, where winning a short series can be an accident based on where and whom you play (see ‘87 Twins) and losing one can be because of the poor play of a seemingly solid team (see ‘08 Cubs).
Forgive me if I use the All-Star break to repeat a few of the themes we’ve talked about in Section 220 as we prepare for the final pull. Here goes:
*The Twins are hoping too much. Yes, I hope that Alexi Casilla works out in his latest return to the Twins. But a .340 average at Rochester doesn’t mean much more than the stats put up by Sean Henn before his promotion. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t. We can say “Freddy Sanchez” until we’re blue in the face, but I’m not seeing that happening. If the latest Casilla audition falls through, I think we’ll be watching more Nick Punto than many would like. I do hope that everyone who was convinced based on last season that Matt Tolbert was the answer to any infield question — second, shortstop or third — has finally been dissuaded of that notion.
*While the Twins have appeared to find their stride in the bullpen, it took a bit long to get to where we’re at today. What if the Twins had jettisoned Luis Ayala before they tried to sneak Craig Breslow through waivers? (A reasonable question.) What if Bobby Keppel’s performance — 12 1/3 IP, 1 earned run — isn’t a fluke and could have been anticipated in Florida? (An unreasonable one.) What if the Twins have gone after the “correct” arm to upgrade the bullpen from season’s start? Options change over time because teams surprise themselves by being in postseason contention (Houston and Colorado, for example). So now the main name has become Matt Capps of the Pirates, a closer who would become a set-up man here. He has three solid seasons (2006-08) behind him and a 6.21 ERA this season that has been fattened by three lousy outings (including Sunday), in which he has given up 12 of his 20 earned runs in 2 1/3 of his 27 innings. Can the Twins have him in uniform by Friday?
*If he can put up his fh-jul (first half minus July) numbers, Brendan Harris should get 75 percent of the time at shortstop for the rest of the season, even if Casilla works out at second base. Based on any numbers I want to use (other than head-first dives into first base), Harris had outperformed Punto this season. Here’s the best set of defensive stats. If Casilla (or that Mauer guy) can hold down the No. 2 spot in the order, Harris should be more effective batting in the lower third. For whatever reason, it’s just not working for him batting second.
*One other counter-intuitive way to get Harris in the lineup would be to let him play third base at times against a lefty starter. Joe Crede has continued his odd streak of 35 straight home runs against right-handed pitchers (going back to the start of 2007) and has a slugging percentage of .306 against lefties (versus .511 against right-handers). The numbers were equally crazy-skewed last season and, given that Gardy is concerned about keeping Crede healthy, that should be one more option in the bag.
*Span-Gomez-Cuddyer is the best everyday outfield with Young/Kubel-Span-Cuddyer the main back-up model. For every cruddy Cuddyer at-bat, there are two dreadful Delmon at-bats. You can nitpick Cuddyer’s statistics and find situations in which he hasn’t done well, but overall he has better stats with runners in scoring position this season and solid overall numbers by any reasonable standard. Span and Gomez in left and center is the best defensive combo, easily, and if they played together on a more frequent basis, they might stop running into each other on fly balls to left-center.
*Two of my Facebook friends attended Sunday’s game and found it momentous enough to post that they were in the Metrodome to watch Joe Mauer strike out four times. The good thing about some of his (very, very relative term) struggles is that the .400 sideshow will wrap itself up and go away. There was never any chance … and now the question will be how many people start going nasty if Mauer’s average drops to only .330 or so.
*Am I the only one who wants to see Jose Morales get more of Mike Redmond’s at-bats?
*I’m concerned about… Kevin Slowey’s wrist thing, the Casilla/second base thing… the Harris/Punto shortstop thing… the back-up catcher thing… the Gomez-in-center thing (as much as I support it)… the bullpen thing… the Crede-vs.-lefties thing… Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano taking care of things… and a few other things that you can probably add to this list.
*I’m happy about enough other things with this team, despite its struggles and underperformance, that I think stuff can be straightened out in the second half for the Twins to have a reasonable chance to be playing in October — and I’m not going to be the guy who dwells on the accident of geography that allows that to happen.
Have a good break. Don’t worry about Mauer messing up his swing in the Home Run Derby. Thanks to the guest posters for their recent contributions. (We’ll have a couple more later in the week). Feel free to send one here for this week or later this summer. Thanks for reading all of our baseball blogs.
137 Responses to "Halfway home in the AL’s Hope and Concern Division"
Good grief, Howard, take some prozac and settle down. I agree that there are lots of things to mull over during the all star break but paramount among them are getting an arm in the bullpen and working out the mess in the middle infield. I, too, hope that Casilla can come back and play like he did in the past but aren’t really hopeful of that. We saw enough of Punto yesterday at the game that he could ride the pine for the rest of the year and it wouldn’t break my heart. It was great to see Harris and Gomez really hit the crap out of the ball and Gardy just has to play Harris 80% of the time for sure ahead of Punto. We both commented that we saw something at the Dome yesterday that we’ll probably never see again and that was having Mauer strike out four times - unbelieveable! But it sure was good scoring 13 runs and watching AJ strike out a few times. Go Twins!
I’m less concerned about the Punto thing then most others. “Splitting time at SS” doesn’t mean 50/50. Harris is no more a machine than anybody else on the roster, and will need days off.
If I’m not mistaken, through this whole Casillagate thing, Harris only sat twice once being inserted everyday at SS.
And last year, it took a combination of ineffectiveness, defensive troubles, and injuries (split between Harris, Everett, Casilla, and Tolbert) for Punto to finally get back in to the everyday lineup.
I think you’re right in the assumption that most of Punto’s play time will be when Harris is either resting or if he’s slid over to 3B to spell Crede (is anybody else as nervous as me that he’s just one freak play from a DL stint?)
I think the next big thing to watch will be what they do to make room if they bring in that 12th pitcher.
After watching this last homestand though…I can’t help but think a pitcher could do just as much to fix this team as an offensive upgrade. The Twins should have the resources to fix one for sure, and depending on what it takes to fix that track down something not quite as big an improvement.
Frankly I think I’d rather have an upgrade in the rotation. The losses in this homestand came in the most part because starters just couldn’t hold out. An upgrade in the rotation moves one of the spare bullpen parts out and moves a starter in (depending on what’s given up)
And while the starter is only an improvement once every 5 games or so, you hope that one start can have a trickle down effect and mean the bullpen has to pitch less.
The upgrade offensively is talked to death. Freddy Sanchez appears to be the Fix de Jour this season. I think people get so locked in on one player they often overlook other options.
What I find unusual is that even with the Pirates being very open that they’re shopping him…nobody’s pulled the trigger. I know injury concerns are one thing (he missed 6 straight starts recently with back issues)
If you’re the Twins, you’ve already got Crede with a history of back troubles. I can see how they may be hesitant to rest their second-half push on another sore back.
Of course, they were able to put together a pretty good estimate of Crede’s health, as he appears to suffer from sitatuions related to everything BUT his back (which is really unfair to him given the contract he agreed to)
What other 2Bs could be available? Should the Twins look to pull in a younger guy they could lock up for a while, or go after the vet that may be gone after 09?
Thanks Howard. Its nice to hear legitimate criticism from someone other than a commenter. Lots to chew on as well. With regard to fielding stats, I, too, value RZR. However, it is solely a measure of range and, even then, those OOZs must be factored in too. Still gotta account for DPs, arm, and errors. and RZR doesn’t do that.
Where is the best place to get definitions of these defensive rankings? They confuse me way more than the offensive stats!
Thanks Howard the thing that worries me now is the same thing that worried me to start the season the starting rotation being so young and inexperienced.
OB, Good points, although range seemed to be the main knock on Harris at shortstop.
fcmlefty, go here for a glossary:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/
No tests will be given.
I fell asleep before the segment aired, but I guess either Sportscenter or BB2N was going to have a segment on new software being installed in parks to help accurately measure a players range and baserunning abilities.
I know “OBP” was only recently added to the stats they show when a guy comes up to the plate…could we possibly start seeing fielding ratings popping up when a player takes the field too?
Would be interesting. Though it sounds like something an agent would come up with before anybody else. 
Yeah, Howard, Punto seems to have lost a step and that has largely gone unmentioned. The notion that Punto is an upgrade over Harris in the field at SS just isn’t supported by the stats. No question he can still pick it, he just don’t get to as many GBs as he used to. Should anyone be surprised? The man will be 32 in November.
Since most of the Twins second half changes are internal rather than external, I’ll pretend for the moment it would be pointless to answer the question: What area would you most want help in if it were available in a trade? The answer, for the record, is middle infield.
Our Rochester call-ups for the bullpen have been, for the most part, not bad. La Velle told us on Rosen’s Sports Sunday last night that another solid bullpen arm is tops for him on the wish list. For me, it would be a second baseman (assuming Casilla falls through) and a right-handed bat to replace Brian Buscher. I applaud the Casilla move. I wish they would make a similar move–internal or external–to replace Buscher.
The Punto thing…if this were as easy as 75/25 in favor of Harris as Howard suggests, I wouldn’t dwell too much. To my knowledge, there has been no indication of any such plan from Gardy and he cannot be trusted to adopt such a plan based on the track record we have before us.
Harris has earned his starting spot at SS and Punto has earned, at best, a utility role. Point blank. I think there should be no wiggle room on this. As I pointed out on La Velle’s blog, Friday’s starting lineup represents the season’s 2nd Opening Night. I think the situation should be made clear with that lineup: Harris at SS, Casilla at 2B, Punto on bench. Gardy made the mistake of starting Punto over Harris at SS at the start of the year and it took him 2 months to correct it. To me, there was a strong argument to be made that Harris should’ve been the starter at the outset of the season. Heck, if you recall, he darn near didn’t even make the opening day roster! Gardy should not make that same mistake again.
Mauer should bat second until they find a real on base guy for that spot (not someone who strikes out twice as often as they walk like Harris or Casilla).
On Morales v. Redmond…Howard is not the only one wanting to see more Morales. It’s been brought up a ton on these blogs.
But much like with Punto, Howard is the only one in the media questioning the continued usage of the veteran player.
I personally am less bothered by this because even as he appears to be fading, Redmond gets the job done for what he is asked to do. Plus, Morales could be developing into the key pinch hitter option we’ve been looking for.
75/25 I can deal with. I will not believe that until I see it though. Clearly, I’m not alone in my sense of dread. Jason hits the nail on the head though with regard to it being the 2nd opening night. I’m confident that a .500 ballclub will not improve by reverting to a failed middle infield.
The backup catcher does not get the PAs a starting middle infielder does. To me, this minimizes the impact of Red’s performance.
How about Harris for the first six innings (and three PAs), then Punto from the 7th on for his defense? Not every single game, obviously, but more often than not. That would be a relatively painless way to 75/25. Harris is not a butcher at SS, but I like Punto’s glove better (even if his range might be slipping). If he gets leather on it, the guy’s out - witness the final out in yesterday’s game.
Jason: I think a trade for a bench bat would be low on the list, though it would be easier to complete (the only downside is who do you go get that’s not quite starting but not junk?)
I’d also like to see Morales get more of Redmond’s ABs.
Howard: When’s your traditional mid-season visit to Midday?
Mcat, I don’t know what you are talking about. Punto had a good game yesterday. Besides playing a solid 2nd base, he got a walk, advanced a runner fron 2nd to 3rd and made a play for the final out that I don’t think Casilla could have made. That being said, if Casilla can play smart and hit better, Punto’s best spot is as a super-sub, starting 3-4 times a week and coming in as a late-inning defensive replacement.
Howard, you are spot on saying the Twins right now have too many variables that must break right for them to play in October. But, they do have some extra talent they can trade to fill a hole or two. Hopefully, they can make a deal soon.
Dave D:
Friday. We’re being pushed back by the Sotomoyor hearings. My understanding is that she’ll be asked about the Punto v. Harris decision during this afternoon’s session.
Good comeback, Howard. And I am sure how this is handled will be a big factor on whether or not she is confirmed.
Would Tony Clark be a fit to replace Buscher? He’s a veteran power bat who could DH against lefties, pinch hit, and
keep Justin fresh with a few days off in
the second half of the season.
Just a thought.
Quite true. Although I hear Gardy is being called as a character witness. We’ll see how much empathy she possesses.
Spot on today Howard. Re: the Harris/Punto splitting time at SS, why? Why can’t Punto split time at 2nd? What has Harris done, except outplay Punto in every facet of the game, to earn bench time? What has Casilla done to earn playing every day at 2nd?
I like to talk about the HR Derby messing up your swing. I think it can very well affect you if you embarrass yourself in the contest and over- compensate. Then you have that in the back of your mind and it could bother you the rest of the season. But Mauer has a bad back, so why is he even in it? ? ? Just play out the few innings in the game and get it over with, we got some games to win.
Pretty much my thoughts, though I think the need for a real starter that they can depend on is higher on my list than Howard’s list. I’ve never been huge on Slowey (I think he’s a 2/3 when he’s good, which he hasn’t been often this year), Liriano isn’t a pithcer (more starts with 4 or more runs allowed than less) he’s a thrower who can’t/won’t throw anymore, Perkins is an unknown, Blackburn looks effective (if not totally predictable) and Baker is a great mystery to me (as he just hasn’t been Baker this year). Swarzak looks like a 4/5 type (maybe a three), and Duensing, Humber, Mulvey aren’t exactly great arms. I’d happily trade two of them for a legit starter (along with whatever else it took).
As for Punto, I’ve lost interest. If Gardy plays him a lot, I’ll join the bandwagon of Gardy doubters, if not, I’m not sure I care if he plays one or two times a week. He’s just warn me out with all of his false hustle I guess.
There remains no reason for Redmond to even be on the roster, he can’t hit or throw anymore. I hate saying that, it just sounds mean, but sometimes a guy just isn’t pro-ball caliber anymore.
He’s just warn me out with all of his false hustle I guess.
How do you fake hussle? is that like pretending to try?
If Sotomoyor opines that Punto should start in front of Harris, I would not confirm her as a Supreme Court justice.
False hustle is like diving head-first into first base to make it look like you’re trying harder than everyone else.
T and mww are right, imo, about the rotation being the club’s shortcomong this year. Just goes to show, you it’s hard to predict where your holes are going to be. The rotation was supposed to be a strength. Obviously, who is available (if they would even play for the Twins in no trade situations) and at what price impacts whether you acquire someone or not. If Baker and Liriano in particular can’t get back on the beam in the 2nd half, we may have to reconcile ourseelves to the fact that it just ain’t our year.
Pertinent to the rotation:
Twins starters ERA rank: 21st
Twins starters FIP rank: 12th
I would imagine that this past June is more representative of the rotation than the prior April/May. I.e. the rotation is not the problem.
“How do you fake hussle? is that like pretending to try?”
there’s a seinfeld episode where george pretends to try extra hard at work — furrows his brow, does a lot of heavy sighing and pounds his fist on the desk … it can be done.
more to the point — punto as an everyday player has pretty much worn me out, too.
Mickey Mental…i bet punto leaves his car in the parking lot so Gardy thinks he’s first one there last one to leave ala Costanza
T and mww are right, imo, about the rotation being the club’s shortcomong this year.
I’d love to see the Twins add a Halladay-type pitcher (channelling Bert here), but…
Those guys are hard to find, and very, very costly.
I don’t think the Twins starting pitching has been as bad as some of you make it out to be. Twins starters this year are 36-31 with a 4.63 ERA.
Twins starters last year through 89 games? 34-26 with a 4.52 ERA.
I know there’s more to it than just those stats. Still, upgrading the rotation much past what they already have is going to be tough to do.
On the other hand, upgrading the middle infield should be child’s play. Look at what they’ve gotten from second base this year.
2 thoughts:
1) There are lots of reasons to prefer Cuddyer over Delmon, but Cuddyer having “better stats with runners in scoring position” is not one of them. Young’s BA w/ RISP is more than 70 points higher than Cuddy’s: http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=batting&linesToDisplay=50&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter%5B0%5D=2009&league_filter%5B0%5D=1&team_filter%5B0%5D=MIN&pos_filter%5B0%5D=All&Submit=Submit&orderBy=baRisp&direction=DESC&page=1
2) Why is everyone so focused on Punto’s BA and completely ignoring his OBP. Punto’s OBP in June and July are .371 and .389 respectively. Not Mauer-esque, but definitely acceptable out of your 8 or spot.
good one, tampa ray.
or remember the one about the penske file? kinda the same thing … finally the boss shows up and says “you really haven’t done anything all week, have you?”
Joe’s 2nd point is of high quality. Don’t be mistaken, Punto has very good plate discipline. The problems arise when he swings the bat.
I thought that was Kramer mickey. Are you referencing Tolbert?
Personaly, I find it more than a little comical that since the FO cannot find any better solution to 2B, they have forced Casilla back into the realm of the Gardy.
If one reads into the articles regarding Lexi’s play at AAA,
it sounds like he is making some of the same mistakes as when he was at the MLB level. I’m going out on a limb and suggest that Lexi will have worn out Gardy two weeks after the ASG break.
With Casilla’a Milton Bradley’esqe mental errors, on-field decisions as well as poor plate disicpline, it will only be a matter of time before Gardy’s head nearly explodes…
“I thought that was Kramer mickey. Are you referencing Tolbert?”
actually, the kramer situation, as i recall, is different. he begins working at a place where he doesn’t really have a job. the boss says, “we’re going to have to let you go.” kramer say, “but i don’t really even work here.” and the boss says, “that’s what makes this so difficult.”
which does sort of resemble tolbert.
ok — that’s the end of my seinfeld analogies for today. although there are probably many more that can be drawn …
If Sotomoyor opines that Punto should start in front of Harris, I would not confirm her as a Supreme Court justice.
If a congress-person were to question Sotomoyor for her opinion on the Punto/Harris situation, I would question their presenence at the confirmation hearings.
Ah, I knew it was only a matter of time before someone cited OBP with Punto. I’ve even thought of a scenario where FS North no longer showed his batting average when he steps to the plate, but instead shows his OBP.
Look, folks, throw out the batting average on Punto, okay. I know it’s the glaringly obvious thing to look at, but it’s not what bothers me. He could hit .280 (as he did last year) and I would still be shaking my head because he lacks a couple of things that I think every major league starter should have–the ability to hit for power (even occasionally) and the ability to drive in runs. I think those things should be a threshold requirement whether you hit leadoff, clean-up, or ninth in the order. I can’t explain why opposing pitchers have walked Punto so many times in the last two weeks. Frankly, if I’m managing those teams, I fine any pitcher who walks Punto $10,000. In any event, the OBP argument is not convincing.
mickey: Something similiar happens to George as well. His job interview gets interupted just before the part where he finds out if he got the job…and then the boss goes on vacation.
So he shows up on Monday and just sits at his desk doing nothing. Eventually getting a better job offer from the competitor for some reason.
Note, T, that David Cone’s presence has been requested at the hearings.
OB… in reference to LNP’s OBP: I shocked with that stat but here is my insight in to that. He just happens to have a smaller strike zone. No doubt you have seen his at bats when he does get walks, and it’s usually when he doesn’t let the bat leave his shoulder. Let’s not pretend he has Mauer’s eye at the plate and Span’s discipline. His OBP is based on how the pitcher is performing rather than his tough battling at bats.
Punto gets walked cause he works the count and is very good at putting bat on ball (fouls). I’m not saying his plate discipline is enough to warrant a starting gig, but I’ll give him credit where it is due.
He could hit .280 (as he did last year) and I would still be shaking my head because he lacks a couple of things that I think every major league starter should have–the ability to hit for power (even occasionally) and the ability to drive in runs.
1) If a MLB hitter needs to hit for power, you’re going to start eliminate a LOT of hitters really fast.
2) If a #9 guy hits at .280, I have no idea what you’re complaining about.
But as I’ve said in the past, I expect it from you to move the goal posts. First Punto sucks because he can’t hit about the Mendoza line.
Then he hits .280, but now it’s about the slugging.
So let’s say Punto starts getting some XBHs. What would it be next? He K’s too much? He has “false hussle”?
Face it Jason, you don’t care what Punto is doing…because you’ll always just change what he needs to be doing in order to produce.
I disagree trb. Punto swings at the fewest pitches out of the zone (albeit just 0.1% better than Span) and lays off a lot of pitches in the zone (with good reason).
OB…I feel like you’re looking at this like the kid manager in Little Big Leauge. Remember he has to cut the guy who’s baseball card he cherishes? Punto is the same thing. You pull for the guy to do well, and then he gets a key hit or in this case a decent OBP, but when you break it down all you really did was get excited about a walk or a seeing eye single because the playing field has been lowered to such pathetic levels.
His OBP is based on how the pitcher is performing rather than his tough battling at bats.
…Um. What? So when Mauer or Span draw a walk it’s because they’re talented, but if Punto draws a walk it’s because the opposing pitcher screws up?
Do you know why it’s a good thing for a player to be able to draw walks? It’s because it means they’re not chasing garbage. Just look at some of the ugly ABs guys like Young, Gomez, and Cuddyer can have when they start flailing at bad pitches.
I’m no LNP fan, trb. In fact, I’ve been railing against his so-called defensive superiority (he’s lost a step). 32 walks and 31 strikeouts. Punto’s plate discipline is his best asset and I won’t disregard it because he is otherwise a liability.
I don’t know about the goal posts, but for Punto to be successful as a hitter in my eyes, the fences would have to be brought in by about 150 feet.
I guess if we have to go back to this, we have to go back to it: name one other starter in the history of the franchise who started more than one full season who has offensive numbers that are worse than Punto’s. It can’t be done.
I totally agree with you T, maybe i phrased it incorrectly. Punto gets walks in hitters counts because he doesn’t chase bad pitches but also he doesn’t know when to strike which obviously accounts for the poor BA and RBI totals. So i feel like most of his walks come in hitters counts where he can afford to be complacent. When it’s a pitchers count he rarely battles to get a walk, IMO.
The plate discipline does nothing for me. Sure it’s nice to have good plate discipline, but it’s also pretty darn easy to keep the bat on your shoulders when you have no ability to hit a double.
Like I said, I don’t know why pitchers have been walking Punto so much the last few weeks–and yes, a lot of these at-bats are ones where the pitches haven’t been close–but I do not suspect that to continue at all.
Sanchez or Escobar / Grabow/Capps that sounds like the best chances for the twins.
lest we forget: punto’s obp is .319 and buscher’s is .350.
thanks for the back up jason, i value others opinions but this LNP crap is just too much for me to take sometimes. and not to go sabermetrics on anyone because it is obviously flawed in ways but OBP is only one half of the equation for OPS. since Punto so obviously lacks the 2nd half of the equation, slugging %, he is no more valuable than a player that strikes out twice a game but occasionally produces runs.
I’d be thrilled if Punto got on base 38% of time. I’d more thrilled if he was 3/4 the defensive player some claim, and I’d be super thrilled if his OPS was league median. I don’t think any of those things happen over a full year with him playing full time. I just don’t see it.
I’d also be happy if bushcer was gone, and Luke Hughes was the RH DH, occassional 3B (only to give Crede rest), but that isn’t likely to happen either.
I agree with everyone. Really, it is okay to agree Punto has had better plate discipline this year, he has. He is still one of the worst hitters in baseball this year by almost any measure.
Exactly, plate discipline means you know what to swing at as well as what not to swing at. Punto lacks the former.
I don’t know about the goal posts, but for Punto to be successful as a hitter in my eyes, the fences would have to be brought in by about 150 feet.
Fences/goalposts…same difference.
And now we get it. Every single player in the Majors needs to be able to hit homeruns at any point otherwise they are a complete failure. ESPECIALLY the #9 hitter.
Because as we all know, the best home-run hitters bat out of the #9 spot. That’s why they hit way down there.
Punto sure is a lightning rod.
This is all old stuff, like watching reruns of Sanford & Son.
Punto swings at ~60% of pitches in the zone (on par with Span). He makes contact 90% of the time (average for the Twins). Punto has the right approach at the plate but he swings a very VERY poor bat. He’s bad enough without having to make up faults.
I bet if you search for “Punto” in these blogs you come up with more posts than “Mauer” and “Morneau” combined.
Mauer is hitting HRs now, very little for anyone to bitch about. Morneau is hitting for average and against lefties, also little left to bitch about.
People like to bitch.
I’m kind of sick of breaking down Nick Punto’s OBP/OPS/RBI/RZR/OOZ/PCP/BVDs. That’s all.
Mauer is hitting HRs now, very little for anyone to bitch about. Morneau is hitting for average and against lefties, also little left to bitch about.
Nah, there’s still complaints about where Mauer/Morneau hit in the order.
It’s kind of funny. Last year Mauer had no business hitting 3rd because he didn’t show enough power.
Now he’s showing power, but should be batting 2nd because he and Morneau should get more ABs.
If it’s ultimately about giving them as many ABs as possible. Might as well put Mauer/Morneau 1/2.
He’s bad enough without having to make up faults.
Punto once ran over a box of kittens on his bicycle. I also heard he enjoys ketchup on his pancakes (but hates mustard on his hot dogs)
BW: “This is all old stuff, like watching reruns of Sanford & Son.”
But much less entertaining.
ESPECIALLY the #9 hitter.
What does hitting 9th have to do with anything?
Do outs by the 9 hitter count less? Do failed opportunities to knock in runs count less because it’s the 9 hitter?
BTW, this isn’t a Punto-specific post.
It’s just this idea that many fans have that somehow it’s OK that the bottom hitters in a lineup suck.
Those hitters are hitting at the bottom of the lineup BECAUSE they suck. It doesn’t make it ok. They still hurt the team. The team would be better if the bottom hitters hit better, just the same as if the team would be better if the top hitters hit better. And it’s easier to find hitters that improve upon ’suck’ than to find hitters that are better than the middle of your lineup.
Yeah, JC, you’re definitely right about that.
But what’s more monotonous? Bashing LNP or defending LNP? Admittedly, defending him takes way more creativity.
Punto has 1 extra base hit since May 27. Are we really “debating” whether or not he should start in front of Harris?
Can we all agree, as a starting point, Harris should be the SS on Friday and Punto should be on the bench? We can get into the particulars about plate discipline at a later date if needed…
I don’t think the Twins starting pitching has been as bad as some of you make it out to be.
Chief, it hasn’t been bad, it’s just been way too inconsistent. From start to start and sometimes even from inning to inning apt to go from solid to meltdown.
Give me Nick Blackburn (who should be an All-Star) times five and you can start printing playoff tickets. All other concerns become secondary.
I don’t think the Twins starting pitching has been as bad as some of you make it out to be.
Chief, it hasn’t been bad, it’s just been way too inconsistent. From start to start and sometimes even from inning to inning apt to go from solid to meltdown.
Give me Nick Blackburn (who should be an All-Star) times five and you can start printing playoff tickets. All other concerns become secondary.
But what’s more monotonous? Bashing LNP or defending LNP?
That is the definition of “equal.”
Ah, yes, the all star break. Isn’t this the designated bitching time for a team that has underperformed?
Good point, OB.
We are 4 games out of first. We’re not out of it, but it’s not like we’re trucking along on a pace to win the division.
Plus, I don’t think I would be jumping to too many conclusions if I assumed that other teams in the division will be slightly more aggressive in improving their teams through a trade than the Twins will be.
I don’t think anyone here needs a “designated time” for that, OB.
Jason seems intelligent. He is articulate.
Only one thing makes sense. I bet his wife has the hots for Punto.
But what’s more monotonous? Bashing LNP or defending LNP?
That’s an unfair comparison, since somebody could agree that Punto isn’t the best hitter the Twins have…but is still considered “defending him” just because they don’t think he should be strung up in effigy.
I wouldn’t say they’ve underperformed, they are right on pace for the 83-85 wins I projected, aren’t they? Of course, they’ve gotten there differently than I imagined they would….and we still don’t know if Young, Gomez or Casilla can hit/play, so that’s not so good.
“Only one thing makes sense. I bet his wife has the hots for Punto.”
Ha, hilarious.
Actually, she’s more of a “bench Punto” fanatic than I am.
But since you brought it up (and no, I’m not claiming this is relevant to the discussion at all), last night my wife felt the need to actually point out the Twins, as a whole, are the “hottest” team in baseball by looks.
Her favorites included Liriano, Harris, Mauer, Morneau, and Crede…no, Punto didn’t make the “A” list. If she had the “hots” for Punto, we’d be scheduling a marriage counseling session.
Plus, I don’t think I would be jumping to too many conclusions if I assumed that other teams in the division will be slightly more aggressive in improving their teams through a trade than the Twins will be.
Based on what? When have the other teams been any more aggressive? Are the White Sox about to bring in Carl Everett again?
Jason,
She might just be tryin to throw you off the scent.
Fran: The starting pitching does seem to be somewhat inconsistent, I agree. But I wonder how different that is from previous years.
I confess I’m too lazy to go look it up.
As for Blackburn, I’d take him every day too, but I’m afraid he’d tire as the second half progresses…
“When have the other teams been any more aggressive?”
I do seem to recall Griffey gunning down Cuddyer in that little 1-0 affair last October…
Also, only Jake Peavey’s personal veto kept him from joining the White Sox this year.
Gardy suggests Punto may see some of Harris’ PT. That is legitimate cause for concern. That is why the topic has been debated so vigorously today.
Ultimately, as Fran and Chief have said, if the starting pitching excels the hole at 2B will only irritate. I’m thinking that’s the best hope for 90 wins.
Was Shannon Stewert the last impact trade made? 2003?
First let me say I’d like to see Smith be more aggressive in terms of trying to improve the team before the deadline.
That said, while Jason is correct that it’s safe to assume other GMs will be more aggressive, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll actually be successful.
If the Sox’ Williams trades Jenks and Beckham (plus prospects) for Halladay, that would certainly be aggressive and he’d be heralded for “trying to win”.
IMO, he’d also be a fool because it likely weakens his team on a daily basis simply in the hope of getting a handful of better starts than whoever Halladay would replace in the rotation.
Likewise, I was fine with him trading for Griffey last year. Sure it makes noise in the media, but as we discussed a week or two ago, it’s open to debate as to whether it actually improved the team. He sure looked ugly trying to play CF.
Was Shannon Stewert the last impact trade made? 2003?
Luis Castillo: 2006.
I do seem to recall Griffey gunning down Cuddyer in that little 1-0 affair last October…
And if you went back and looked you could find 2-3 plays where Griffey cost his team runs and thus games that would’ve prevented that from ever happening.
Also, only Jake Peavey’s personal veto kept him from joining the White Sox this year.
And Adrian Beltre’s kept him from joining the Twins this year.
I do seem to recall Griffey gunning down Cuddyer in that little 1-0 affair last October…
Touche. Bit of a stretch when that’s the best example of aggressive to be found, though, no?
“He sure looked ugly trying to play CF.”
Again, with one notable exception being gunning down Michael Cuddyer in a game the Twins lost 1-0, ending their playoff hopes.
But yes, no one in this division tends to make huge deals…but when you’re 4.0 GB, I think you have to something other than recall Casilla. Last year we were told that when Liriano/Cuddy comes back from injury it will be like making a trade. We don’t have players like that coming back this year (unless Neshek’s progress is amazingly accelerated).
“Jason says:
July 13th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Punto has 1 extra base hit since May 27. Are we really “debating” whether or not he should start in front of Harris?
Can we all agree, as a starting point, Harris should be the SS on Friday and Punto should be on the bench? We can get into the particulars about plate discipline at a later date if needed…”
I see it this way: We all know Punto is starting once at SS this weekend. We all know its what Gardy will do. A quick look at the numbers show you that lefties hit .328 of Padilla. All other L/R breakdowns for the three Ranger starters result in batting average against of less than .250. Doesn’t it make sense then, if Punto “has” to play once this weekend, to be in the friday night game against Padilla?
Again, with one notable exception being gunning down Michael Cuddyer in a game the Twins lost 1-0, ending their playoff hopes.
Or like how Morneau came up lame in the final weekend of the series, thus costing the Twins the division lead and thus setting up that 163rd game right?
Bit of a stretch when that’s the best example of aggressive to be found, though, no?
It’s even more of a stretch when you consider that Griffey’s defense in more than one occasion gave UP runs that cost Chicago games to set up that 163rd…
The weakest link is the middle infield and one more good bat in the lineup makes it explosive. A roll of the dice makes more sense now than 2008 (and even in 2007) as no one is running away with the division.
Jason,
I hope you understand I mean no offense with my kidding. In fact, I’m impressed by your passion. It speaks well for your character.
But think a minute. You’re smart. When you disagree with a professional, (Gardy) who is surrounded by other professionals not clamoring for his head, which is more likely? He is wrong, or he is opperating with data and/or standards different from yours.
No offense taken at all, Paul. And that goes for everyone…this is civil discourse at its finest.
As to your question, I think the answer is he is wrong. On this issue, Gardy is wrong. Whatever data and / or standards he is operating with cannot possibly explain why, for a second time this season, Nick Punto should be forced to share time with, much less start over, Brendan Harris.
And despite what it may look like, I’m bored with this discussion as well. But until the manager makes the obvious move and makes Nick Punto the highest paid utility player in baseball, it will keep coming up.
As long as No. 8 continues to find his way into the lineup, this will keep coming up. If that makes us pathetic for going on about it, I guess I’m pathetic.
To answer fmclefty’s question, in a word, “no”.
This isn’t Jason Kubel / Lew Ford circa 2007…there’s no reason to break down the numbers before deciding who to go with between Harris or Punto. Do you really want to saddle Harris with the mental state of mind that comes with being benched in favor of Punto for the second time this year?
Jason,
You’re definitely not pathetic.
Do you consider there must be infighting behind closed doors in the Twins org over the obvious “wrongness” in the managers viewpoint?
I can’t believe how much time we spend blogging about Punto. He’s terrible. I think everyone can agree on that. However, his inability to play ball at this level isn’t the sum total of what’s wrong with the Twins.
If Harris can’t handle being benched, I don’t want him around anyways. His one good game yesterday is only deodorant for his last two weeks worth of at bats.
I’m not advocating the benching of Harris. I want him to be the starting SS, regardless of his at bats the last two weeks.
I’m, however, based in reality. Gardy will start Punto at SS sometime this weekend. Its as sure as the sun rising in the east tomorrow. If he “has” to start once this weekend, friday night is the night to do it, as friday night is the night to load the line up with lefties. Crede and Cuddy should be the only righties in the line up that night if Gardy looks at the series as a whole, and since Crede’s splits make him look like a lefty anyways, it will look like 8 lefties and a righty to hit against Padilla
Yeah, Harris should be able to handle not being in the lineup Friday, even if it is Punto who replaces him. It’s one game.
Let’s not forget that Punto’s baserunning this season has been far less than stellar. See yesterday’s game. This team cannot afford STUPID mistakes from Punto when he’s barely over 200!
“His one good game yesterday is only deodorant for his last two weeks worth of at bats.”
I’m still waiting for a good game from Punto that would serve as deodorant for two and a half seasons worth of at-bats…
Okay, so nevermind the “Harris’ mentality” angle, it’s just bad baseball period. I don’t care about lefty / righty or what have you…Friday’s lineup is symbolic, as I’ve been saying. It sets the tone for the 2nd half of the season.
In a typical week, there are 6 games. That means there are 6 games for a SS and 6 games for a 2B. That’s 12 “games” to split among 3 infielders.
I think it’s a pretty safe bet each of them will be playing “about” 4 games each week.
Right or wrong… that’s about how it will play out. I suppose one of them could get an extra game or two in there subbing for Crede, but unless he’s the odd man out when they add a 12th pitcher, that duty will probably go to Buscher.
I think it’s a pretty safe bet each of them will be playing “about” 4 games each week.
I gotta believe Casilla’s going to play second base on a full time basis, at least unless/until he proves he’s not good enough to handle that job.
Jason, it’s not that I don’t appreciate your point ov view with respect to getting Punto out of the lineup. I agree with you. I’m just afraid Cirkket is right about this.
Grr (head ringing)…haven’t we been around this block enough to know that the solution here is to sit Punto on the bench until someone gets hurt or plays poorly enough to be taken out of the lineup?
What good has this platoon stuff done us when Punto’s been involved? Who has he ever beat out in a “platoon” situation?
To fmclefty, who above said “it’s only one game”…if 2008 taught us anything it’s that every game matters. We’re 4.0 GB, we don’t have time to play around with this. Use Punto the way he’s supposed to be used–as a utility back up / late inning defensive replacement. Gardy can hold a press conference and tell everyone he’s the best late inning defensive replacement money can buy.
Share time equally with Casilla and Harris? Are you kidding?
Play him once in three games between Friday-Sunday? Why?
It’s painful to me how obvious the solution is here.
few points on the beaten animal carcus in the room (Punto vs Harris debate)
1. Harris is 4-10 vs Padilla with a BB, Punto is 2-7 with a walk and a K, so there is a slight chance that Harris should get the nod over Punto. if not….
2. Either I will get thrown out of Rangers’ Ballpark for yelling obscienities at Gardenhire for continuining my crappy two weeks by forcing me to watch Punto and his fake hussle and head first dives into first base play SS with Casilla at 2B after a 4 hour drive on my only day off in 2 weeks…..
and finally if Sotomoyor is asked her stance on the debate of Punto v Harris and chooses Harris then we all know that Harris is already starting work on his post baseball career as a lobbiest and is apparently pretty good at it.
Plus why does Casilla automatically get placed in the starting lineup? Most guys come up from the minors and work their way in….. not “welcome back, now go!”
Maybe I should just pack a sedative and some Rangers gear instead of getting kicked out of the ballpark…. although gardy will get an earfull from me…. (not like he would care but still, this would be the second trip he would have screwed over for me and his fascination with Punto)
LMS, Harris wouldn’t have anything to DO with Sotomayor — paid or unpaid.
He’s a right-winger.
a lobbiest would sell his soul to the highest bidder regardless of their personal stance if it gets their agenda passed…. lobbiest 101
Not a fan of animal carcus beatings or fake hussle (it that spelled right?). This needs to be addressed a little deeper:
Twins, as a whole, are the “hottest” team in baseball by looks……favorites included Liriano, Harris, Mauer, Morneau, and Crede”
Did you see that blonde in last night’s game going nuts over Crede? What’s up with that?????
Again, I’m not advocating Punto starting ahead of Harris. Just hoping that if Gardy insists on playing him, I hope to heck he picks the right spots for him.
And I’m not buying this first game back line up sets the tone stuff. If that was the case, why in heck is Perkins starting the game instead of Blackburn?
grrr…. sorry it is carcass (with baseball season in break I am forced to watch outdoors shows with dead animal carcasses on the pretty monitors….)
Any suggestions for sedatives to take in Arlington, my sister said she is not okay with us getting kicked out before the game starts and she will let me sit in an Arlington jail if needed so she can watch the game…. =( I have a bad feeling that Punto and Casilla are going to be up the middle….
On a semi-serious note: Just wanted to pass on my thanks to the Strib for having these blogs, and to Joe C, LENIII, and (especially) Howard for providing content.
Mainly, thanks to all the posters here for providing me a place to talk baseball, and talk Twins.
We laugh! We Argue! We cry! We argue!
It’s just like a long running Broadway play!
And without it, my baseball jones would be a bit less fulfilled.
So thanks. Seriously.
I saw that, Shaun….in Saturday’s game. She was pretty and healthy. Just one of the gals having fun in her baseball groupie mode……..and drinking a few beers.
Just gulp a lot of Gatoraid, LMS. It’s in the 100’s this week in Arlington. High 90’s on Fri and Sat.
Loved this column. Found myself nodding yes throughout it. One question I have is — why did we abandon Mauer in the two spot? Got him more at-bats. I think it helped Span . . who only got hurt by the inside of his ear. I think it got our best bats more plate appearances and really felt like a nasty threatening lineup. That’s the one I’m stuck on. Other than that, I’d pretty much stop playing Punto altogether at this point. It’s becoming caricaturish — the no-bat, the headfirst slides. I want him to hit .270, steal some bases, and be an important glove. So far he just adds leather, but at 2nd base, I just don’t feel it’s important enough. Onward! (I think we’ll finish 10 games above .500…but may not win the division with that.)
You’re welcome, Chief. I share your appreciation.
And on a less serious note, looks like a good lineup on Comedy Central tonight.
The State Farm Home Run Derby is really a power HR hitting exhibition disguised as a home run derby. It barely relates to good hitting. And no one necessarily cares who the winner is.
They just care about who hits the power home runs. I’d like to see them bring up some minor leaguers — the guys who aren’t really good hitters but who can power the batting practice stuff a long way.
Spelling doesn’t count on Twin’s blogs, Lil’ Miss. My sentence in parentheses at 6:19 sounds like I have lisp.
well if you guys are needing a baseball fix and the HR derby on the other network isn’t doing it for you the Twins White Sox 19 run thumping is on in 15 minutes…. the one that Punto happens to go 0-5 and Tolbert gets a HR….
Oh Shaun I thought you were calling out my typo since that is one of my nitpicky habits….well atleast at work I am terrible about correcting people (politely) in emails that they mis-spelled something =)
Another good fix is the bloopers and highlights before the HR Derby. Web gems by Carlos (and Nick I think) and Kubel and Cuddy’s cycles. The funniest highlight was when they yelled out “He doesn’t know how many outs there are! ! !” I wonder who that was,lol?
Lost in all of this verbiage and originating in Joe’s blog - whatever happened to the cranes that were removed from Target Field? Were they moved to the Mississippi or some other waterway? As a member of PETA I am deeply concerned about those beautiful birds.
Wow, the Punto/Harris debate again. Based on Gardy’s comments, Punto’s starting sometimes. So lets make lemons out of lemonade…
1. Send Buscher down. With another infielder on the bench, Harris is now our backup third baseman.
2. Harris starts 4 games at SS per week, Punto starts twice.
3. Harris backs up Crede which means he’ll start 1-2 times a week @ third.
4. Punto starts one day a week at second, resting Casilla.
So Harris still gets 5-6 starts a week, Casilla gets at least 5 starts, and LNP gets 3.
Seems fair enough. Again, I think Harris deserves to be the starting SS but this works, too. And as much as he drives me crazy, if Punto walks once or twice every game and provides above average defense, he does have some value batting ninth.
And most importantly, this scenario completely makes Buscher obsolete on the bench and back to AAA. Cuddy backs up first and can’t Harris back up first in an emergency?
oldguy with the old joke…….
I like the oldies too, oldguy.
Hey, Oldguy!
Joe Mauer is up in the Home Run Derby!
BACKBACKBACK! ! !
The only way Bill Smith makes a trade for Freddie Sanchez is Sanchez and cash for Maurer, that way he won’t be out any money on him for 2011.
The trade should be Young, Perkins, Buscher, Henn and Punto for Sanchez and Capps.
Do it.
tbob wins today’s SPOD.
Just to clarify things…. USAFChief is sole decision maker on POD. I am sole decision maker on SPOD.
Pitching and defense. Pitching and defense. Pitching and defense. Those should be the only two worries of any MLB team. If your favorite team is struggling or otherwise failing to meet expectations, it is because of either pitching or defense. Hitting has nothing to do with it. For proof, just look at the San Francisco Giants. Out of spring training we all knew they had probably the deepest pitching staff in baseball. The question was, could they score enough runs to win? Well, their offense has been as meager as everyone predicted, yet through tremendous pitching and sound defense, the Giants are 10 games over .500 and lead the NL Wild Card by 2 games. I repeat: hitting has nothing to do with it. Looking at the Twins, they have statistically one of the best defensive clubs in baseball. So defense clearly isn’t the problem. That leaves pitching. While Bill Smith made an obvious major blunder over the winter by doing nothing to bolster a bullpen that blew the season for the Twins last year, he seems to finally struck a combination that is at least serviceable. The real problem has been the inconsistent rotation. Other than Blackburn and Slowey, the other 3 starters are a mixed bag. With Baker, Liriano, and Perkins, you truly never know what to expect when they take their turn. The results have been awful to great and somewhere in between. Baker looked decent against the White Sox on Sunday, but looked as bad as he’s EVER looked his previous time out versus the Yankees. That kind of inconsistency cannot happen. Same thing with Liriano and Perkins. We all know the rotation will not change this season (save for injuries). But Bill Smith, Gardy, and Rick Anderson are going to have some very, very big decisions to make this winter; particularly regarding Liriano’s future role with the Twins. Starting pitching, in my book, is the problem.
Excellent point, Chris, about the starters but will Smith do anything about it, by which I mean a trade or two. Frankly, I do not think he will and who is tradeable that will bring any value? Cuddyer will not bring much nor would Gomez or Young, who else would any MLB team want? Span would probably be very desirable but does one want to do that?
And who is ready to be a MLB starter at Rochester or New Britain? I can think of no one, perhaps I am missing something here. Maybe three or four years down the line but not in the next two years.
Any other ideas here? It is obvious the G.M. needs our help.
oldguy: A “trade” is possible. A “trade or two” would be tougher depending on what is given up in the first one.
Teams would want Gomez or Young. Just because Twins fans for whatever reason don’t value these players highly doesn’t mean other teams wouldn’t.
“Hitting has nothing to do with it. For proof, just look at the San Francisco Giants. ”
Um, last I checked you can’t win if you don’t score. For proof, just look at the 2008 Twins in game 163.
“Looking at the Twins, they have statistically one of the best defensive clubs in baseball.”
What stat(s) are you looking at?
saam: If you’re arguing that the Twins don’t have one of the better defensive teams in baseball, I don’t think you’re going to find many people who agree with you. I don’t just say the Twins are one of the best defensive teams because of the overall lack of errors. But they have great defensive players at virtually every single position. Crede is a gold glove caliber at third. Punto can’t hit but he flashes serious leather; same with Harris. Morneau and Mauer are gold glove caliber players of course. And in the outfield, Span and Gomez are so fast that if a ball can be got, they’ll run it down. Cuddyer may not have great range, but he’s at least got a cannon for an arm. The only possible weak links are Kubel and Delmon Young; and Kubel rarely plays the outfield and Young doesn’t play every day. As for your point about the runs, I would only suggest that you look up the numbers. Once you do that, you’ll notice that the Twins have actually OUTSCORED the two teams in front of them. That should tell you all you need to know about where Bill Smith’s focus should be.
