A couple of times every season, we shift our base of operation at the Metrodome from the front row of Section 220 to the third row of Section 125, pretty much right behind home plate. That was where we watched Saturday night’s disaster and pondered the question about whether bad baseball is easier to stomach when you’re sitting within hearing distance and the players are life-sized.

The bad baseball question has another application for Twins fans. Somehow, incredibly, the Twins are only three games behind in the AL Central. And, of their final 57 games, all but 17 are against opponents within the division — all of which the Twins have shown an ability to handle.

Based on the results of the weekend’s games — getting pummeled by the Angels (without two of their best players and with their own suspect bullpen) in a pitching performance that was like watching a parody of Livan Hernandez — how excited are you about the prospect of winning the division? A rematch with the Angels? A playoff series against the Yankees or Red Sox?

I have been among those who have argued that “anything can happen in a short playoff series” — and I really believe that. Look at the Wild Card teams in recent years that have gotten to the World Series and the seasons when the “best” team based on 162 games didn’t go far in the postseason. The Chicago Cubs of the last couple seasons are poster children for good teams gone bad in October.

In normal times, I’ve been pretty dismissive when people have argued about how the Twins have never set themselves up for a run deep into the postseason because, after all, anything can happen in a short series. I’ve always thought of them as good enough to get by if things break right.

Go back to 2004, for example, and the Twins were a couple of individual misfortunes (Jacque Jones’ ridiculous throw home in Game 2 and Juan Rincon being  Juan Rincon in Game 4) from getting to a fifth and final game against the Yankees — or even winning the series in four by playing a bit better baseball (and not having Corey Koskie’s Game 2 double off Mariano Rivera bounce into the stands and keeping Justin Morneau from scoring).

On August 3, 2009, you will not read that “anything can happen” reassurance from Section 220. Can’t do it right now. The Twins winning the AL Central feels like the 12-year-old team that wins its Little League title and getting to play the 14-year-olds as a lesson in how much better they still need to become.

While the OC is a nice pickup  (as long as he remembers to pick up grounders) — 3 for 8 with a homer and a walk in his first Twins weekend — Orlando Cabrera doesn’t make up for the bullpen that has been allowed to atrophy and a rotation that has hit a dead phase. Can you name the reliable starter right now? And the bullpen?

I mean, I loved Bobby Keppel’s modesty when people were raving about his early outings. But he was the one who used the phrase “small sample size” in an interview, and his most recent sample size has yielded 21 runners in his last 6 1/3 innings (and a 4.84 ERA). I really didn’t want to be the one christening him “Boom Boom Keppel,” but the sound of the consecutive home runs that greeted him Saturday night leaves  little choice. Dickey, Crain and Mijares have been little better of late, leaving the Twins with two reliable relievers.

Let’s put this question in a different light: How can a management that negotiates contracts by looking for flaws in its personnel (the due diligence of preparing for arbitration) try to sell flawed personnel as sufficient for a pennant race? A team that’s three games ahead of the pack should be looking for ways to improve itself (Hello, Jerrod Washburn.) Now, a team that’s three games back has to deal with waiver rules before it can make any moves.

Obviously, I hope I’m wrong about all this and that a reliever will come along and pitch like Jose Mijares did in the final month of 2008 and the starters will straighten themselves out — and maybe even be supplemented by a veteran who can sneak through waivers. And then the Twins will play October baseball as decided underdogs, but with some hope because, after all, anything can happen in a short playoff series.

Right now, though, you’ll have to find that optimism elsewhere. Try me again next week.

This entry was posted on Monday, August 3rd, 2009 at 9:47 am and is filed under Thoughts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.