(Howard’s Note:  Section 220 regular JimCrikket hasn’t been able to find enough to do during the All-Star break, which is in its fourth and final day. So he did some schedule gazing and found some reason for Twins feels to feel confident, providing … well, you know…)

One way I can tell I’ve been bored lately is that I’ve clicked on some “statistics” links. It’s not that I don’t like statistics or that I don’t believe in statistics. I appreciate them especially those that can be used to support my personal beliefs/opinions.  (Admit it… that’s when you appreciate them, too.)

Anyway, this isn’t about statistics. It’s about odds. (What’s the difference? Odds are fun. Statistics are. ..well… not.)

I was glancing through the MajorLeagueTradeRumors.com site over the weekend and an entry entitled “Playoff Odds Update” caught my attention. “Cool”, thought I, “let’s see what the odds are that the Twins make the playoffs.”

The link from MLBTR was to Baseball Prospectus’s odds page.

I found a lot of numbers there. Numbers tend to give me a headache so I had to go have a beer before I could return to actually check in to what the computers at BP calculated the Twins’ odds of making the playoffs were. Once I did so, I found something puzzling. As we all know, the Twins are in third place in the AL Central Division, behind the Tigers and White Sox.

“Naturally,” thought I, “the Twins will have the third best odds among the divisional rivals at making the playoffs.”

Also naturally, I was wrong. (I’m wrong a lot.)

According to the BP computers, the Tigers’ odds of winning the Central Division are just under 40%. I can buy that. But here’s the surprising (to me) part: the Twins’ odds of winning the Division are ALSO just under 40%. I’m no mathematician (I couldn’t even SPELL mathematician without “spellchecker”), but that didn’t seem to leave many % left for White Sox. Sure enough, their odds are right about 20%. (Sorry KC and Cleveland… that leaves very little % for you.)

“Why would the Twins’ odds be TWICE as high as Chicago’s and virtually the same as Detroit’s?” asked I.

Immediately, I skipped to the bottom of the page to find out how these odds were calculated. There, I read that BP’s calculation was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation (Hey, I like the sound of that!)  1,000,000 times! Wow! Anything a computer calculates a million times must be right… right? Then I started reading the next paragraph wherein BP explains how the computer uses EWPs and W3s and L3s and… well… by then I had another headache, requiring another beer.

Coming back to my laptop, I decided I didn’t really need to know how the computer came up with the results, only that in almost 400,000 times out of the million simulations, the Twins won the Central Division (and the WhiteSox managed to do so half as often. HAH! Take that AJ, you bum!)

This is where I took matters in to my own hands. It occurred to me that the only way these results made any sense would be if the schedule heavily favored the Twins over the Sox and, at least somewhat, over the Tigers. So I checked.

Guess what? The schedule heavily favors the Twins over the Sox and, at least somewhat, over the Tigers.

I think it’s pretty well accepted that there are 3-4 truly good teams in the American League. The Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Angels are really the only teams who deserve to be called “truly good.” That must be true because ESPN says so, after all.

Since those are the only good teams in the AL, I checked to see how many games the Twins, Tigers and Sox have left with those teams.

Know how many the Twins have left with them? Six. Three home and three on the road with the Angels (and quite possibly all coming before Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero return to full strength). No more Evil Empire. No more Red Sox Nation. No more Jason Bartlett’s revenge.

The Tigers, however have 17 games remaining with those four opponents. 17 is more than 6. Not only that, but 13 of those 17 games are on the road. They have 3 games at Yankee Stadium, 4 at Fenway, 4 at the “big A” and three in the only indoor stadium worse than the Metrodome. They also host the Rays for a 4-game series.

Then I checked the Chicago schedule. Now, I’m a 53-year-old man. I don’t giggle much. But when I checked their schedule, I came pretty darn close to giggling.

AJ and friends have 25 games with those four “good” teams. That is literally over 1/3 of their remaining games (I think… someone check my math… my head hurts again). True, 15 of those games are at home and “only” 10 on the road, but any schedule with 8 games vs Boston, 7 vs NY, 6 vs the LAAA and 4 vs the Rays is downright giggle inducing.

So, I decided to figure out what I think each of the three AL Central rivals final records will be, based on their current records and their remaining schedules. (Did I mention I’ve been bored, lately?)

As much as I’d like to say my calculations convincingly conclude that the Twins will win the Division, alas, I did not project them to catch the Tigers. (This is as good a place as any to insert the obligatory plea to Bill Smith to improve this ball club before the trade deadline.) I admit I was less than generous with my evaluation of the Twins’ chances of winning many of the seven games they have remaining scheduled in hell (aka Texas).

Anyway, I projected the Tigers to end up winning 90 games, the Twins 85 and the Sox 82 (and frankly I think I was being generous to them).

So what does this all mean? Not much. (Hey, if you’re searching for “meaning” in a blog, you’ve got bigger issues than being concerned about how the Twins play.)

But I’m going to say it means the Twins are not out of the Division race yet. Of course, it would help if the Twins added a key piece of the puzzle or two soon.

Bill Smith, your phone is ringing.

(Howard’s Note: Today’s guest poster is law student Josh Borken, who took a break from studying for the bar exam to come up with a list that’s open for debate and revision — the worst players to wear Twins colors during the Metrodome years. If you need to see the numbers of some of these baseball miscreants, go to baseball-reference.com. I decided against linking to each of these guys because it could do bad things to your computer. I hope this’ll keep you from dwelling too much on the Yankees series. Have a good weekend — and, again, thanks to the guest posters who are keeping things going through the All-Star break.)

As you know, the Twins are running a promotion to select the all-time best
Metrodome team — another way to honor Santana, Puckett and some of the others who have played for them since 1982.

I found it a lot easier, and a lot more enjoyable, to come
up with an all-time worst Metrodome team. Every position is subject to
debate, except Dave Stevens as the closer.

1B — Scott Stahoviak. He was seriously compared to Kent Hrbek in a preseason preview in this newspaper. Not quite.

2B — Brent Gates. Gator Gates. Rivas had 1 good year. Gates didn’t.

3B — Dave Hollins.  A jerk. Sulked his way into a trade netting David Ortiz,
who never amounted to anything.

SS — Jason Maxwell. The toughest selection to come up with for this team. He
gets the nod over Juan Castro based on team record.

LF — Butch Huskey. He didn’t see the wall while chasing a home run that landed
at least 6 rows back. It was turn ahead the clock night. A bad display of
judgment that occurred while wearing a silver Twins jersey. The chalk
outline on the wall the next day has to be the most bittersweet Dome moment
ever.

CF — Alex Cole. Alex Cole never showed any emotion, mainly because he always wore sunglasses.

RF — Rich Becker. Remember when he was a single shy of the cycle and had 2 chances to get it? The worst defender on this team.

Bench — Michael Restovich. But he has so much potential.

C (the year of 5: 2000) — Danny Ardois, Chad Moeller, Matthew LeCroy, Marcus Jensen. Rather than go through each one of these guys separately, it’s enough to say that if you don’t remember the year 2000 as the year of 5 catchers (A.J. Pierzynski being the fifth, and exempt from this list), then
you never experienced true agony.

Rotation: 

Dan Serafini. I saw his first start, and it was abysmal. A sentimental #1

Frankie Rodriguez. He pitched way too long for this team.

Scott Aldred. The worst part was how much money he got paid.

Adam Johnson. Not a very large sample size to draw from, but the combination
of high draft pick and never amounting to anything gets him the nod.

Sean Bergman. Nobody remembers Sean Bergman. There’s a reason.

Bullpen

Bob Wells. A set-up guy who just made things worse.

Hector Carrasco. I used to always stress a certain syllable from his name
whenever he entered.

Scott Klingenbeck. More terrible as a reliever than a starter.

Seth Gresinger. Bad numbers plus longevity.

Willie Eyre. The worst of the garbage men.

Ramon Ortiz. A tough call, but he had more relief appearances then starts. A
rare bad player on a good Twins team.

Closer

Dave Stevens He blew 5 saves in 16 chances. I’ll never forget the
game when he blew a save, got pulled, went into the dugout, and punched a
phone with his pitching hand. Had he never watched Bull Durham?

Can you top those — or add to the bench?

(Howard’s note: Today’s guest post is from Jake Depue, a Ph.D. student in the School of Journalism and Mass Communication at the University of Minnesota and 2004 graduate of Macalester College. He sometimes yells cruel things at Nick Punto, but almost always regrets it later. I assume  he will despise all things New York for the next few days.)

Among serious fans, there are two equal and not entirely exclusive ways of following baseball. The first is the “Stat Head” approach. Stat Heads get their enjoyment from the rich and complex samples Major League Baseball provides throughout a 30 team, 162 game season. No other sport can come close to the amount of statistics baseball offers to its dedicated followers. Sabermetrics has allowed serious fans and baseball executives (sometimes) to assess player value through the lens of true objectivity. You can’t hide from your .OPS, your VORP, or your xFIP.

When I think of a Stat Head (and I do not use that term in a negative way), I think of Aaron Gleeman. Gleeman has combined an in-depth knowledge of sabermetrics with good writing skills and hard work to make a career out of what was once a hobby. At his best, he has me convinced that he could run the Twins better than Bill Smith, or even (gulp!) Terry Ryan. Gleeman, and others like him, have allowed fans the right to question their team’s moves not based on the time they saw Tony Batista hit a home run at the dome or Little Nicky Punto make a diving play at short (or, sadly, into first); but on statistically significant sample sizes based on hundreds, sometimes thousands, of repetitions. They have changed the way baseball is played.

While Gleeman is an amazing Twins blogger and a daily must-read, I wonder sometimes if he and other Stat Heads enjoy baseball. Do they see the game only in numbers, every at bat broken down based on a series of different statistics for the situation at hand? Does it become robotic, with even the most unlikely of comebacks seen simply through the lens of the percentage chance it would happen?

I hope not. I hope Stat Heads smile when they see Carlos Gomez sprint full speed around the bases at Wrigley after his first home run of the season, pace around the living room during a stressful Joe Nathan save, and remember where they were when Jacque Jones inexplicably threw a 30 mile per hour floater to home to lose Game 2 of the ’04 ALDS (do you remember that throw? One of the most overlooked Twins flops in recent memory. Did he really think Jeter wasn’t going to tag?).

This is how I and many others follow the Twins. We’re Dreamers. We fantasize about watching Justin Morneau hit a walk off home run to win a playoff game, or Joe Mauer coming into the last game ever at the Dome batting .401. To the Dreamer, the stats are a valuable tool, but in the end it’s about the experience.

The memories of my summers past and present in the Twin Cities always have an unmistakable Twins tint. I remember 2002, when a chilly winter was looming in mid-October as I sat in my living room drenched in a nervous sweat, watching Eddie Guardado try to close out the A’s in Oakland and allow summer a temporary reprieve.

I remember the next summer, 2003, when a combination of a stress-free job, more mind altering substances than I knew what to do with, and a house full of carefree college kids allowed me to reach a state of living as close to bliss as I could ever imagine. For three months I wished the Twins were along for the ride. Then Shannon Stewart arrived from Toronto (sans plantar fasciitis), and the Twins made their run. They were the last piece to making my life damn near perfect.

And I remember last year against the White Sox. My personal life in disarray, the Twins gave me a 3 day escape. I was at the dome every night for that sweep, screaming, screaming from the upper deck, hugging my friends and jumping up and down when Casilla got his hit, and taking shots with random Twins fans at Grumpy’s afterwards while singing “We’re gonna win Twins, we’re gonna score!” at the top of our lungs.

My point is that for the Dreamer, no matter how pathetic it may seem to an outsider, baseball can actually affect your life. It’s given me the highest highs, and some truly crushing, why-the-hell-do-I-bother-with-this lows. I am, without question, addicted to it. When I think about the amount of baseball I watch, it equates to a part time job. I pass up social outings to watch May games against the Royals. I stay up until 3 am doing school work because I was at the Dome until 11. I sprint around the living room, I throw my remote, I hug my friends. But no matter what, it is always an experience. It shapes my memories and impacts my day.

Maybe it shouldn’t, but it does.

(Note from Howard: I’m getting away from the keyboard for a few days. Recently, I asked for some guest posts for us to read over the next couple of weeks and I received several interesting ones. Today’s is from  Andrew Bryz-Gornia, who explains: “I am going to be a junior at Gustavus Adolphus College. While my dream is to be a sportswriter, it appears that my future will be as a high school math teacher with a side of blogging.” Bryz-Gornia has taken a look back at the Twins’ off season relief options and played with the numbers, which means he’s on the right track for bringing math to the masses.Have a great holiday!)

By now, the Twins’ bullpen struggles have been well documented. Although they have been much better lately, many people feel that one or two more solid relievers would vastly improve the team. The signing of Luis Ayala in the offseason was not an ideal move for fans, but still a classic Twins, low risk/high reward signing. Many fans (myself included) were clamoring for someone like Juan Cruz, but as we approach the All-Star break, most of the names that were tied to the Twins in the offseason at first glance have been just as bad or worse than

Ayala. For curiosity’s sake, I will also include some former Twins that could have had an impact this season, Ayala as a comparison. You still want Russ Springer? Disclaimer: I will be using FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) as an evaluating tool. For those that are unfamiliar with FIP, go here. If a pitcher’s FIP is similar to his ERA, then he is performing at a level that should be expected of him.

Luis Ayala: 4.18 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.42 WHIP
Now that the rift between Ayala and Gardy has been publicized, it appears that Ayala was at fault. But can you blame him? All offseason, the Twins talk about needing a setup man. Ayala has a history of being a closer and setup man and is signed. After a few bad games, he is relegated to middle relief. Ayala complains to Gardy about his role. His last 15 IP as a Twin, he posts a .933 WHIP and 2.40 ERA. Unless Bobby Keppel keeps pitching well, I feel that the Twins may have pulled a Breslow and given up on Ayala too soon.

Craig Breslow (combined Twins & A‘s): 4.20 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.28 WHIP
I felt that Breslow was shown the door a bit too early, and he has proven me right since joining the A’s, especially since his replacement, Sean Henn, has just been replaced by Brian Duensing. His walks and HR allowed were too high with the Twins, but he had a good OBA prior to being claimed off waivers.

Bobby Korecky (Triple-A): 2.28 ERA, 2.15 FIP, 0.90 WHIP
Although Korecky, the same guy that was waived to make room for Ayala, hasn‘t pitched well in the majors for Arizona so far (though a 4.03 FIP says otherwise), he has been having a career year in Triple-A. Unfortunately, this means he’s likely due for a regression at some point, but with having a similar skill set to Ayala, you have to wonder how he would have pitched for the Twins this year.

Dennys Reyes: 4.35 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.31 WHIP
Despite a mutual interest, the Twins and Reyes didn’t really have a chance to remain together in ‘09 with the emergence of Breslow and Jose Mijares. As is life as a LOOGY (left-handed one-out guy) , Reyes’ ERA is a bit skewed due to a couple poor outings.

Juan Cruz: 4.91 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.36 WHIP
The guy that I’m sure most Twins fans wanted, he has clearly disappointed this year. Although his WHIP isn’t much differently from his past 2 seasons, a K rate that is half of last year’s isn’t good for a guy that was lauded for his ability to miss bats.

Brandon Lyon: 4.03 ERA, 5.22 FIP, 1.21 WHIP
Which do you believe? His FIP is similar to ’05 (6.44 ERA) but his WHIP to ’07 (2.68 ERA).

Eric Gagne (Quebec Capitales): 10.80 ERA, 2.35 WHIP
After learning some French from the Capitales official website, I found out from the Can-Am League website that Gagne hasn‘t pitched well at all. Combined with his MLB career, he certainly has had a hard fall from grace, and not the kind that you associate with pickup lines.

Chad Cordero: N/A
From what I can tell, Cordero is still in extended spring training for the Mariners rehabbing his shoulder. From May 20, GM Jack Zduriencik was quoted as saying that Cordero still had to improve his velocity before he would be assigned to the minors, and I believe that is still the case. During the offseason, this was a guy that I really wanted the Twins to sign, but considering that I can’t even track down his ‘09 minor league stats, there’s no way he would have been better than Ayala.

Russ Springer: 5.02 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.74 WHIP
Another guy that I wanted to see the Twins pursue, at first glance he appears to be having a poor season. But if you throw out a 6 game stretch of 11 ER in June, Springer improves to a 1.78 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. So as it turns out, you probably do still want Russ Springer.

When I first finished finding these stats, I thought that Ayala had simply outperformed just about everyone else on this list. But after checking the game logs for Springer and Reyes, I decided to look at everyone’s game logs and found that everyone had been a victim to 2-4 poor outings. Now I understand that picking and choosing certain games can make anyone look like a solid reliever, but this meant that most on this list would have been a good choice to be or stay a Twin. I also know that ERA is not the best way to judge a pitcher’s ability, but it is the simplest. So, after eliminating each pitcher’s 3 worst games (judged by their worst single game ERA) and still having about 25+ games in reserve for each, I leave you with each pitcher’s new ERA.

Reyes: 1.98
Lyon: 2.03
Breslow: 2.15
Cruz: 2.58
Springer: 2.70
Ayala: 2.73

(Note from Howard: With 100 games left in the season, it seems like a good time to take a short break. As I’ve mentioned before, I like turning Section 220 over now and again to those I know have something to say. This weekend’s Guest Post is longtime commenter Thrylos98 from Tenth Inning Stretch, who explains the case for Brendan Harris to continue at shortstop. Gardy has said Harris will stay there even though Nick Punto has been activated from the disabled list, but these numbers are meant to explain why Gardy should resist any temptation to backslide. Enjoy — and I’ll be back at it early next week. By the way, for those of you reading while in Chicago for the Twins-Cubs series, sources say to check in the bars around Wrigley Field if you’re looking to upgrade your seats.)

Could the Twins’ next starting shortstop be closer than it may appear?

I am not much a follower of the proposed approach that the Twins look at the rear view mirror and trade for Christian Guzman who at 31 has accumulated a very respectable .816 OPS so far this season, which translates to an OPS+ of 112, compared to the other shortstops in the majors and neutralized for the different ball parks. I cannot think of a single Twins’ fan, front office person, manager, coach or player (ok, maybe of one single player) who would not cherish the idea of having a starting shortstop with a solid OPS, especially if he contributes at least respectable (i.e. average or above) defense.

I think that the Twins are very close to featuring such a player for the remaining of the season without trading for Guzman.

How can they accomplish that? Through a trade with the Houston Astros for Miguel Tejada? By plucking Yunel Escobar from the Altanta Braves? I think that the solution could be right before our eyes in the form of a certain 28 year old player who is hitting .333/.376/.471 with a .848 OPS while at shortstop, while having an above average defense (3.1 UZR/150. “UZR” or “Ultimate Zone Rating” is a statistical measurement of fielding ability that combines the ability of a player to turn double plays, his errors and his range. (For outfielders, assists, is additionally factored in.)

UZR/150 is a projection of how many runs above or below average he would allow over 150 games.

Midsummer night’s dream? Wishful thinking? Who is that guy and what would it take for the Twins to get him? It is easier than one might think; he is none other than (drum roll):

Brendan Harris

The aforementioned statistics are Harris’ when he is playing shortstop. It has been shown more than once that some players produce better at the plate, when they are comfortable on the field and have a single position they play. A definite example of such a player is Michael Cuddyer, who in 2006 had a breakthrough season, upon his move to RF full-time from a utility jack-of-all-trades in 2005 and before.

Harris does not feel comfortable in the field on second base. This season so far he is batting .163/.178/.279 (.457 OPS) when playing at 2B; he finished last season batting .254/.327/.351 (.677 OPS) while at 2B. Even in Tampa Bay as a SS in 2007 he batted .302/.362/.449 (.811 OPS), which translates to an 120 OPS+ if compared to other shortstops. This indicates that his success at the plate this season, while playing SS, is more than a coincidence and it will likely continue as long as he is the starting shortstop.

Another interesting ability of Harris as a hitter is that he has been very good against opposing starters the first time he faces them in a game. At these situations he is hitting .353/.421/.618 with 1.039 OPS this season. This is especially remarkable, since the AL hitters as a whole hit .259/.327/.417 (.744 OPS) the first time they face a starter in a game and the Twins’ hitters (including Harris, so the overall is a bit inflated) hit .268/.341/.417 (.757 OPS) in that situation this season.

Harris’ defense has shown a particular improvement this season, as well, particularly his range that has improved to a league average this season at SS (it is still below league average at 2B.) Even since his Tampa years, Harris has been very accurate defensively and never committed a lot of errors. These factors combined make him a slightly above average fielding shortstop, as expressed in his UZR or UZR/150. Furthermore, Harris is under club control, albeit arbitration-eligible, for the next 3 seasons, including 2012.

Could it be that obvious and that easy? Time will tell, but my magic 8 ball is stuck at “As I see it, yes”.

The $8.5 million question is whether Ron Gardehire’s has the same answer.

(Comment on this post here)