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Thoughts


Fixing the Twins without spending huge money

Thursday, November 19th, 2009

This is the time of year when people throw out names.

“Why can’t the Twins get Roy Halladay?”

“Well, Toronto will want this, that and the other thing and the Twins aren’t really in position to give up this, that and the other thing.”

“Let’s get Chone Figgins to play third base!”

“You like the idea, I like the idea, I suspect Chone Figgins doesn’t share our enthusiasm, though.”

And so it goes. Some good ideas, some awkward fits, some trade schemes that work only if you’re working both sides and only looking out for one of them.

Even against that backdrop, there are several moves that could be made to make the Twins what they should be going into 2010. There are lots and lots of possibilities, but I’m going to throw out a few and get out, because doing anything else could numb the brain and threaten to douse the hot stove with spittle. However, if you want to play along at this point, here are two good sources to work with:

ESPN’s free-agent tracker lists players alphabetically and includes Type A and B free-agent notations. Click on a player’s name for career stats and his 2009 salary information.

Cot’s Baseball Contracts gives salary information for players on team rosters.

That being said, here are my three preferred and realistic moves in the free-agent market. None of them are especially novel, but they’re the result of sifting and sorting through all of the possible combinations and saying, “Hey, I think this could work.”

Playing second base and batting second … Orlando Hudson Felipe Lopez.

Orlando Hudson is an All-Star and a Gold Glove in 2009 for the Dodgers (his fourth), who signed him on the seriously cheap at $3.4 million and then gave his position to Ronnie Belliard for the postseason. But there’s something deceptive last year’s salary: Hudson had a novel contract that ended up paying him about $8 million in 2009 — more than twice his base. What made the contract especially interesting is that his incentives included $10,000 for every plate appearance from 576 to 632. (He ended up with 631.)  Here’s the breakdown on last year’s deal.

Hudson is a Type A free agent and would cost the Twins their first-round draft choice next June. A better move? Felipe Lopez is a Type B free agent, which doesn’t come with the loss of a draft pick, and a younger, cheaper version of Hudson. He made $3.5 last year, a cut from his $4.9 million in 2008, which came after he lost an arbitration case. He’s younger than Hudson and had better defensive numbers, when using revised zone rating as your measure. He also gives the Twins a second baseman and a No. 2 hitter who isn’t named Nick. Some can argue that he struck out 100 times last season, I’ll argue that a .383 on-base percentage (2009) and a career .338 mark looks a lot better than the pretenders who have been filling that spot in the batting order.

Playing third base and batting ninth … Pedro Feliz.

The main name that seems to come up (Figgins aside) is Mark DeRosa, who is 34 years old and had made a name by being versatile in the field and providing right-handed power at the plate. Wanna know why DeRosa is a man without a position? He doesn’t play any of them well and is pretty statuesque at third base.

Here’s my deal: With the current Twins lineup, I’m willing to trade on-base percentage for defensive prowess, and that’s why I want Feliz. I’ll take a solid glove and some power at that position, and feeljust fine about seeing him at the bottom of the order. Feliz, 34, made $5 million last season plus some modest performance incentives, and I suspect that he can be had for something close to that figure

Yeah, I’d rather have Figgins, but I’m not wearing drunk glasses.

And pitching for the Twins … Ben Sheets

Can you think of a pitcher with more to prove? He missed the entire 2009 season after major surgery to reconstruct his right elbow and will likely be forced to take a low-base, high-incentive deal. If Sheets can recover his old form, how could the Twins not take seriously a pitcher with Sheets’ statistics? Eight seasons with a 3.72 career ERA, 1.2 WHIP and hardly a weak number — aside from the entire reason that he’ll need to settle contract-wise. He made $12.1 million in 2008 with Milwaukee.

In addition to last season, Sheets also was on and off the mound from 2005-7, averaging only about 135 innings per season during that time. Jarrod Washburn? Jon Garland? Brad Penny? More Carl Pavano? I’d rather take a risk on Sheets.

Players can start talking to teams on Friday. Let’s hope there’s some action this winter to go with the noise.

I like Gardy, but…

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

Ron Gardenhire coming in second in the AL Manager of the Year voting doesn’t work for me.

That would be a little bit like Bill Smith coming in second for Executive of the Year because the front office finally got its act together and made the needed moves that helped get the Twins in position to win the division, with a day of extra labor. The Twins went for too long with their pretenders and were both lucky and good when it came time to make the changes that let them live up to being the contenders they were supposed to be all along.

Yes, everything came together in the final weeks of the season and the Twins looked pretty sharp in that surge to overtake Detroit. But it was more a case of some players finally playing up to their ability in concert with those who were having their best years ever (Mauer, Cuddyer, Kubel) keeping up their star-caliber pace.

Remember, this was the third-best division in the American League. Put the 2009 Twins in the AL East and they’re  midway between Toronto and Baltimore Cleveland. Put ‘em in the AL West and they’re battling Seattle and Texas for runner-up honors behind California despite having better personnel.

Yes, Mike Scioscia deserved to win Manager of the Year. And it should have been unanimous.

The top three spots should have gone to AL West managers. Don Wakamatsu should have finished second for guiding Seattle from its pathetic 101-loss season of 2008 back above .500 while constantly turning wheels to put the right players in the right positions. Ron Washington of Texas should have finished third for an improved team that kept the heat on the Angels for so much of the season.

Gardy, at best, is No. 4. Maybe him, maybe Joe Girardi.

What does Gardy need to do to be a serious MOY contender? Win a game in New York? Limit Nick Punto to 250 at-bats? Play Delmon Young every day? Get rid of Delmon Young?

None of the above, really.

The saddest reality of Twins baseball in 2009 was that it continued its slide away from that horribly cliched mantra: Doing the little things right.

The Twins simply don’t. If I had a quarter for every time I’ve heard that line used about them — more globally than locally, which is fortunate — since last July 4, I’d be close to paying for a nice dinner out. How did the Twins bollocks up the postseason? On the bases in Games 2 and 3 were the most notable examples, and representative of so many other goofs during the regular season. Yes, the Yankees were so good and played so well that they put tremendous, error-inducing pressure on all of their postseason opponents.

But the Twins are still carrying a reputation for being better than that — and the challenge for Gardy is to get them back to deserving such accolades.

That has to happen because there’s anything but a guarantee that the excellent performances of this season will be replicated.  Mauer could be the MVP (and a Hall of Famer) with lesser numbers, Justin Morneau will be a question mark because of his health, and how confident can you really be that Kubel is a 100-plus RBI guy on an annual basis and Cuddyer will keep cracking out 30 or more home runs.

To compensate, the front office will need to find the proper replacement parts through trading and the free-agent pool. And, even more important, the Twins will have to get back to being what they used to be — a team that sweated the small stuff and won because of it.

Combine that attention to detail with the dramatic increase in power (111 home runs in 2008 to 172 in ‘09) and a solid (not spectacular) pitching staff, and the Twins can churn out the results that should make Ron Gardenhire a legitimate Manager of the Year candidate. Better even than a second-place finish that wasn’t really deserved.

Gardy is a good manager, so it’s a very achievable goal.

The deal: Little bit sad, a good deal of glad

Friday, November 6th, 2009

The 2010 Twins need a shortstop. The 2009 Twins had five outfielders, if you include Jason Kubel in that mix.

So trading for J.J. Hardy, a point of view espoused by Section 220 at about this time last November, is a good move. Hardy struggled significantly this season (even earning a several week stint in the minors, which the Twins never dared to do with Gomez) but has an offensive track record from the previous two years and good enough defense (He led National League shortstops in revised zone rating this season despite his problems) to make Hardy-for-Carlos Gomez a worthwhile risk.

This means the Twins are willing to settle for a second-best defensive outfield (compared with Gomez in center and Denard Span at one of the corners) and that those who wanted the veteran leadership of Orlando Cabrera on next year’s roster will be disappointed. The Cabrera issue is really a nonstarter, however, because his defense was flashy but suspect and, for the spectacular flashes he sometimes provided, that was a .313 on-base percentage he ended up with during his Minnesota time. And based on these numbers, you couldn’t find an AL shortstop who played worse defense.

In the cold light of the hot stove, OC was short-term salve. We should be happy for that and wish him well.

The Twins have also decided, for now, that Delmon Young has a better chance than Gomez to be the everyday impact player they imagined with making those trades. You can still have a good debate over that one, and the Twins could have come to that conclusion as a convenient truth after testing the market for both players.

As for Gomez, I’ll miss him. I loved what he brought to the outfield — save for the maddening bunny hops that increasingly became part of his throwing motion — and the good at-bats when he figured out which of his tools to use at the plate. But for a guy in his sixth year of professional baseball, there were just too many times when he didn’t do the right thing in all facets of the game.

If the Twins are to regain their reputation for doing the little things right — a phrase that still gets misapplied to them in the national media — guys like Gomez will not be part of the solution. Given a chance, his skills will probably improve in the lesser National League. Likewise, Hardy shouldn’t be expected to return to his 2007-08 numbers. But numbers in the neighborhood would be good.

The Twins now have a shortstop they can pen into the lineup whose name isn’t Punto. They still need a third baseman. (That would be free agent Chone Figgins, if you want to know how know I really feel.) Figgins and a “Top Two” starting pitcher are the gifts I think fans deserve from Twins management as we all move across downtown to Target Field.

Another reason I’m glad to see this deal is that it speaks to an aggressive stride that Bill Smith appeared to find as last season wore on — when Cabrera, Carl Pavano, Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay were brought in. Each played a role in the run to the AL Central title, with Rauch and Mahay having a good chance to be factors in the coming season. The market for Pavano is uncertain, but I’d like to see the Twins involved as middle-of-the-rotation prices. Five from among Free Agent/Blackburn/Baker/Slowey/Pavano/Duensing is a rotation that I’d be fine with.

Here’s the best current list of potential free agents that I could find today. ESPN’s web site has a free agent tracker that hasn’t yet been updated with 2009 names.

Finally, there’s some below-the-radar good from this deal in that it reunites Gomez with ex-FSN chatterer Telly Hughes. That duo combined for an interview I never get tired of watching. I hope they get encore opportunities in Milwaukee.

Nobody to blame but themselves (and Phil Cuzzi)

Saturday, October 10th, 2009

Well, that was craptastic. Yes, I know that word is probably beneath the dignity of our slice of the Internet, but the only other ones I can think of are a little bit too vile, and I would regret seeing them attached to my name when looking back some day at my body of cyberwork.

The Twins gave away Game 2 in so many ways: Leaving 17 men on base… Gomez’ run-erasing baserunning gaffe… Leaving 17 men on base… Nathan’s pathetic ninth inning… Leaving 17 men on base… Young and Gomez swinging at first pitches in their bases-loaded at-bats in the 11th… Leaving 17 men on base… Nathan’s pick-off throw into center field in the 10th… Leaving 17 men on base… Kubel’s four strikeouts… Leaving 17 men on base.

So while Nathan’s performance will likely be the one that stands out over time, there were plenty of other people who contributed to the Game 2 demise.

As Joe Mauer said afterward, “We could have won the game earlier.”

Gotta like that for understatement.

Mauer made his comment when he was weighing in on the hubbub surrounding the blown call in the 11th by umpire Phil Cuzzi, who ruled Mauer’s fly ball foul when it clearly dropped about 10 inches inside fair territory. Called correctly, it would have been a ground-rule double. According to SI.com, Mauer went so far as to imply that Kubel’s at-bat could have ended differently if Mauer had been on second base instead of first (with the single he got after the blown call) because there wouldn’t have been the big hole between first and second that resulted from him being held on base. Kubel singled through that hole to right.

I also can’t help but think about the pitch that hit the muumuu that Brandon Inge wears for a baseball jersey during Tuesday’s Game 163. You know, the one that would have given the Tigers a lead in the 12th inning if it had been properly called. (Wearing a uniform top four sizes too big isn’t against the rules.) As Twins fans, we can be outraged by one call and whimsical about the other, but that doesn’t mean we can’t be called on our inconsistency.

This is probably petty, but the thing that seems to be bugging me most about these first two games is what the Twins have done to rehabilitate A-Rod’s reputation as a post-season puddle of ineptitude. He had two key hits in Game 1 and the game-tying homer off Nathan, which included that smarmy look-at-me fist pump toward the Yankees dugout — just so he could make sure they’d all been watching, I guess. Lame.

The Twins have proven beyond doubt that you can beat a favored team without playing excellent baseball.

It’s just that when you reach a critical mass of mental mistakes, individual meltdowns and game-long bouts of ineptitude, you’re not likely to beat the New York Yankees — or even the New Britain Rock Cats.

***

There’s been a lot of blog comment chatter about the Chip Caray/Ron Darling team that’s calling the games on TBS. Normally, I stay away from critiques of network announcers because, frankly, I don’t expect much from them. However, I can say without hesitation that listening to Caray and Darling is like hearing an audition tape from a couple of guys in Moose Jaw. The omissions and mistakes are painful. I’m still trying to figure out who the “Spanish players” are on the Twins’ roster, a conversation snippet from Game 1. Rafael Nadal and Pau Gasol? Darling often sounds like he’s trying to figure out what Caray just said.

Richard Sandomir, who writes about sports media for the New York Times, offered the other day: “Every announcer makes mistakes, but Caray’s lips form a pattern of an announcer out of his element.” For Sandomir’s entire takedown, go here.

It’s kind of sad to write this. I remember listening to Chip’s grandfather, Harry, do White Sox games (which was before he started the doing the Cubs). When I was in college, and cable was rare enough that you had to go to a dive bar in Bloomington to watch the Cubs on cable, Harry was there watching them (he was in town for a Twins-White Sox game) and he bought me a Budweiser.

At least on Sunday, I’ll be at the Dome so I won’t have to listen to Chip ‘n’ Ron The baseball in this series so far has generated enough pain. The broadcasters needn’t add to it.

***

Saturday morning update: There’s a query below asking if I’m “going to own up to my miscall” about the Twins starting Gomez in center field for Game 2.

No, I’m not.
As the questioner points out, Span made a catch early in the game that I don’t think Kubel makes. And I’m not sure if Span, who doesn’t have Gomez’ range in center, gets to Posada’s fly ball that led off the sixth. And Gomez’ two-out walk — yes, a Carlos Gomez walk — started the two-out, two-run Twins rally in the eighth.

So, yes, Gomez made an egregious error that went a long way toward costing the Twins the game. But  calling the decision to start him a “miscall” in short-sighted and revisionist.

Back for more — and wanting Gomez in the lineup

Friday, October 9th, 2009

(I’ll be on MPR with Gary Eichten talking Twins at noon today. We’re at 91.1 FM and www.mpr.org for the webcast.)

I’m glad that Nick Blackburn is pitching because, between his excellent tie-breaker pitching last season and his gems against the Tigers in Game 1 of last Tuesday’s doubleheader (which seems like a month ago) and against Zack Greinke on Saturday, he is my big-game choice. In his last four starts, he’s given up only 5 runs in 27 1/3 innings and let barely put than one man on base per inning (28 in that stretch). Whatever his mid-season struggles were, he seems to have dealt them and I’m glad he’s the choice.

This is such a crazy series in that the Twins basically were in no realistic position to compete well in Game 1 without an extraordinary effort, which didn’t happen. Now, against the team with the best record in baseball and a stranglehold over them during the past few years, the Twins have to win three out of four.

Twins chances: slim and some.

There are so many words in motion about this game, that I want to make one suggestion and then get out:

I want Carlos Gomez in center field tonight.

There’s lot of ground to cover in the Yankee Stadium outfield, especially from left-center to right-center, and we’ve seen several balls in recent games that may have been caught if Denard Span was in right field instead of center. (There’s less ground than the old Yankee Stadium, but still a lot.) During Gardy’s late-game defensive moves, Span has made two catches — one against Detroit and one against Kansas City — that were beyond what Kubel would have made. (Kubel is a workmanlike outfielder; Span is an excellent corner outfielder.)

And the Jose Morales of the last couple of weeks isn’t hitting like the Jose Morales whom many people wanted to see replace Mike Redmond earlier this season. Morales was so overmatched against Rick Porcello on Tuesday that Gardy lifted him after two at-bats, and I don’t think that bodes well for a prime-time appearance in Yankee Stadium. In addition his 4-for-29 in the last couple of weeks, Morales has only two extra-base hits (doubles) since being recalled in September and given significant DH time. (Both of those doubles came in one game against Cleveland.) This just isn’t his time.

I’ve been telling people who wondered about the Young-Span-Kubel outfield as a daily event that it’s been worth giving up the offense to get Morales or Harris in the lineup at DH.

Now, it’s different. Big outfield, big game … and the potential for a fly ball or a line drive that may call for one of the biggest defensive plays of the season.

Start Gomez.